Week+4 2023-02-10 08 - 22 - 50

Policing and Crime
Prevention
SS3120
Lecture – Week 4
Policing models – POP, SARA, CompStat, ILP
1 Prof. Matthew Manning, SS3120, City University of Hong Kong, 2023 - all rights reserved
Learning objectives
After having attended this lesson, you will be able to:
1. Identify and understand the impetus and components of POP and the SARA
model
2. Understand key elements of POP
3. Identify and relate to examples of SARA
4. Describe intelligence-led policing (ILP)
5. Describe CompStat and the problems associated with it
6. Compare characteristics of traditional policing model, community policing,
POP, CompStat and ILP.
Prof. Matthew Manning, SS3120, City University of Hong Kong, 2023 - all
rights reserved 2
Set readings this week
▪ Book chapter: Tilley, N. (2011). Modern approaches to policing: community, problem-oriented and
intelligence-led. In T. Newburn (ed.). Handbook of policing (Chapter 15). Routledge - Available from Library
electronically (Click on this link)
▪ Book chapter: Ratcliffe, J. (2008). Defining intelligence-led policing. Intelligence-led policing. Chapter 4,
London, Routledge.– Available online for Library electronically – (Click on this link)
▪ Report: Office of Justice and Programs (2010). Model programs guide literature review: Community- and
problem-oriented policing. Washington D.C., U.S Department of Justice – (Click on this link)
▪ Website: ASU Center for Problem-Oriented Policing - https://popcenter.asu.edu/content/sara-model-0
Prof. Matthew Manning, SS3120, City University of Hong Kong, 2023 - all rights reserved
3
Extended readings
• Ratcliffe, J. (2002). "Intelligence-led policing and the problems of turning
rhetoric into practice." Policing and Society 12(1): 53-66 – Available at
library electronically (Click on this on link)
• Maguire, M. (2006). "Intelligence led policing, managerialism and
community engagement: Competing priorities and the role of the national
intelligence model in the UK." Policing & Society 16(1): 67-85 - Available at
library electronically (Click on this link)
• Clifton, W. (1987). Convenience store robberies in Gainesville, Florida: An
intervention strategy by the Gainesville Police Department. Florida,
Gainseville Police Department – Scan on course website
Part 1
Problem Oriented Policing

(POP)
Prof. Matthew Manning, SS3120, City University of Hong Kong,

2023 - all rights reserved 5
Methods extending the basic community
oriented approach
Community Oriented What else is needed? How do
Approach police identify crime?
Tactical dimension What more can be done?

• Establishing community partnerships, • Police either discover crime or it is
through public relations/media reported to them.
campaigns, shopfront and mini-police • Is the community oriented approach
stations, Neighbourhood Watch enough or do we need something else?
• Developing problem-solving techniques • How can the police actively engage –
to address the underlying causes of what is the tool?
identified issues
• Training officers to recognise problems • In this section we examine POP and the
and find possible ways to address them SARA model
while working with the community
POP – The SARA
Model
So what is it?
Link:
https://www.youtube.com/w
atch?v=gTuPQmK8dFo
POP-impetus
• The main impetus for problem-
oriented policing (POP) arises
from a sense that the demand
on police has become
overwhelming. Moreover,
underlying problems producing
calls for services are not being
addressed.
• The origins of problem-oriented
policing lie in the work of
Herman Goldstein (1979, 1990),
at one time an adviser to the
Chicago Police Department.
(Tilley, 2008:374).
8
Key elements of
POP
• A problem is the basic unit of police work rather than a
crime, a case, calls, or incidents.
• A problem is something that concerns or causes harm to
citizens, not just the police. Things that concern only
police officers are important, but they are not problems in
this sense of the term.
• Addressing problems means more than quick fixes: it
means dealing with the underlying conditions that create
problems.
• Police officers must routinely and systematically analyse
problems before trying to solve them.
• Just as police routinely and systematically investigate
crimes before making an arrest.
• Individual officers and the department as a whole must
develop routines and systems for analysing problems.
Source: ASU Centre for Problem Oriented Policing

Key elements of
POP
• The analysis of problems must be thorough even though
it may not need to be complicated. This principle is as
true for problem analysis as it is for criminal
investigation.
• Problems must be described precisely and accurately and
broken down into specific aspects of the problem.
Problems often aren't what they first appear to be.
• Problems must be understood in terms of the various
interests at stake. Individuals and groups of people are
affected in different ways by a problem and have different
ideas about what should be done about the problem.
• The way the problem is currently being handled must be
understood and the limits of effectiveness must be openly
acknowledged in order to come up with a better response.
Source: ASU Centre for Problem Oriented Policing

Key elements of
POP
• Initially, any and all possible responses to a
problem should be considered so as not to cut
short potentially effective responses. Suggested
responses should follow from what is learned
during the analysis. They should not be limited to,
nor rule out, the use of arrest.
• The police must pro-actively try to solve problems
rather than just react to the harmful consequences
of problems.
• The police department must increase police
officers' freedom to make or participate in
important decisions. At the same time, officers
must be accountable for their decision-making.
Point 3 can be a little • The effectiveness of new responses must be
problematic! evaluated so these results can be shared with other
police officers and so the department can
systematically learn what does and does not work
Source: ASU Centre for Problem Oriented Policing (Michael Scott and Herman Goldstein 1988).
POP-SARA Process
SCANNING
ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS
RESPONSE
Source: Centre for Problem-oriented Policing
Prof. Matthew Manning, SS3120, City University of Hong Kong, 2023 - all rights reserved 12
Scanning
• Identification of an issue and determining whether it is
a problem:
• Identify recurring problems

• Prioritize the problems
• Develop broad goals
• Confirm that the problems exist
• Determine how often the problem occurs and
how long it has been a concern
• Select problems for closer examination
13
Analysis
Identifying and understanding events and conditions that precede and accompany the problem
Data
collection on Identifying relevant data to collect
the problem Researching what is known about the problem type
to Taking inventory of how the problem is being addressed and any strengths/limitations of the current response
determine Narrowing the scope of the problem
its scope,
nature and Identifying resources that may be of assistance in developing a deeper understanding of the problem
causes: Developing a working hypothesis about why the problem is occurring; is it really occurring?
Image attribution: Alpha Stock Images - http://alphastockimages.com/ 14

RESPONSE
To design an appropriate response:
Searching for what

Choosing among the Outlining a response Stating the specific
Brainstorming for new other communities Carrying out the
alternative plan and identifying objectives for the
interventions with similar problems planned activities
interventions responsible parties response plan
have done
Image attribution: Pix4free.org - link to - https://pix4free.org/

15
Assessment
Evaluation on the impact of the response to the problem:
• Determining whether the plan was implemented.

• Determining whether broad goals and objectives
were attained
• Identifying any new strategies needed to augment
the original plan
• Better handling of incidents and improved response Image licence: Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0)
to the problem
• Conducting ongoing assessment to ensure continued
effectiveness
16
Source: Michael Rivera 17
POP-Case study
In Gainesville, Florida,
police noticed an
SCANNING increase in convenience
store robberies in the
Spring in 1985.
Does this fall within the definition of a problem?
POP-Case study
ANALYSIS
Gainesville Robbery data showed:

▪ average of 72 robberies annually
▪ 47 different stores were robbed
▪ 45 were robbed at least once
▪ some robbed as many as 14 times
▪ 75% occurred between 7pm - 5 am
▪ only one clerk on duty during 92% of robberies
▪ robber waited for clerk to be alone in 85% of robberies
POP-Case study
ANALYSIS
Department researched other databases (e.g. National Association of

Convenience Stores) to see what other departments were doing with similar
robbery problems
Found that the State of Ohio had addressed similar problem and adopted
several ordinances:
o required training for clerks
o minimal cash on hand
o drop safes
o clear view of counter from outside
o adequate lighting in parking lot Source: Centre for Problem-oriented Policing
o Kent, Ohio reduced robberies by 74%
POP-Case study
RESPONSE
• a partnership with convenience store owners formed
• improved natural surveillance/ordinance required 2 clerks on
duty during late night hours
• improved lighting inside and outside
• window obstructions (sales signs) removed
• limited cash handling policies implemented
• drop boxes installed
• upgraded access control through fences and walls to slow
robbers and removal of obstacles to hide
• enhanced formal surveillance through alarm and video cameras;
encouraged visits by police to stores
POP-Case study
ASSESSMENT
• a 6-month study conducted in 1987

• robberies decreased by 65% from
the same period in the previous
year
• 1988 study showed 70% reduction
from 1986 Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-
ND 4.0)
• What needs to be done????
POP-Critical 23
Issues
• Cultural resistance: Police officers believe that real
policing involves crime fighting, crime fighting
entails dealing with miscreants and dealing with
miscreants effectively involves catching and
punishing them.
• Lack of data for analyzing problems: Most police

data have historically been poorly configured for
aggregate problem-analytic purpose.
• Problems in analysis: Police services have found it

very hard to attract and retain analysts with the
appropriate skills.
(Tilley, 2008: 392)
POP-Critical Issues
• External imperatives: They may also steer police services to particular
forms of social control where specified responses, for example clear-
up rates, are measured.
• Demands for response: There is certainly a sense among many police

officers that they are so busy that they are unable to find the time or
resources for standing back and engaging in longer-term problem-
oriented work.
• Organizational obstacles: Sustained and committed leadership

backed up by training programmes, appointment of new forms of staff,
changed promotion criteria, altered commendation practice, etc., are
all needed.
(Tilley, 2008: 392)
Group activity (20 minute activity)
Split up into groups to undertake the below exercise.
1. Identify an example of what you think is an outcome of a POP that you have
seen or heard about.
2. Quickly scan the literature to see what the literature tells us about the
effectiveness of on of these examples.
3. Present your results of 1 and 2 – write down and hand it to me when you are
finished. Make sure you name the people who participated in your group.
Part 2
Intelligence-Led
Policing (ILP)
What is ILP?
• Source: The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)

ITP-impetus
• The main impetus for intelligence-led policing is the supposed

failure of the police to address the system sources of crime and
crime patterns. Crime detection was predominantly responsive and
opportunistic. Police clear-up rates were poor.
• In a paper stimulating the development of intelligence-led policing,
the Audit Commission (1993) prescribed a proactive approach,
targeting the criminal not the crime, making much more and much
better use of intelligence.
• This was picked up by several forces that ran demonstration projects,
the most extensive and influential of which was the work in Kent,
under Sir David Philips (Tilley, 2008: 375).
ITP-core elements
Strategic assessments Level 1: local issues

provide a longer-term
picture of trends
Problem profiles possibly with forecasts
identify emerging for the future, and are
series of offences or used to inform
hotspots for crime. priorities and resource
allocation.
Level 2: cross-border issues-
Target profiles
jurisdictional borders
Tactical assessments
describe offenders
are short term and
and their associates
are aligned to the
to inform operations
tactical menu.
against them.
Level 3: national/ international

issues
29
Data is king!
• Intelligence-led policing gathers domestic incidents,
arrests, criminal records, traffic stops, and gang activity,
and allows law enforcement to run analytics against
these data.
• These analytics help law enforcement identify offenders
who are more likely to be repeat offenders of a particular
crime or group of crimes.
• Law enforcement can then track those individuals,
observing when they move from one class of offense to
another. If an offender repeats an offense, police are
alerted of that individual’s history, giving them an
opportunity to intervene in an effort to prevent more
criminal activity.
Theory versus
reality – Does it
work?
Intelligent-led policing sounds very promising
in theory, but does it work in the real world?
Study 1
Independent study conducted by RAND of the
use of predictive technology by the Shreveport,
Louisiana, Police Department.
Results
• “the program did not generate a statistically
significant reduction in property crime.”
• However, the researchers acknowledged that
it looked at only a few districts over a limited
time period, which weakened the statistical
significance of the study.
Source: https://www.policechiefmagazine.org/changing-the-face-crime-prevention/
Theory versus reality
– Does it work?
Study 2
Mohler et al. (2015) studied the use of
predictive policing algorithms versus the use
of dedicated crime analysts in three divisions
of the Los Angeles, California, Police
Department and two divisions of the Kent,
United Kingdom, Police Department.
Results
They determined that models predicted 1.4 to
2.2 times as many crimes as the dedicated
analyst and led to an average 7.4 percent
reduction in crime as a function of patrol
time.
Mohler et al., “Randomized Controlled Field Trials of Predictive Policing,” Journal of the American Statistical Association 110, no. 512 (2015): 1399–1411.
The Chicago battlefield
A solution required… and fast
https://www.youtube.com/wat
ch?v=FBLb4CUB8BA
This looks promising???
Chicago police
• The Chicago, Illinois, Police Department
(CPD) has used intelligence-led, predictive
technology to reduce gun violence based
on prior arrests, gang membership, and
other factors using a Strategic Subjects List
(SSL) of people estimated to be at highest
risk of being involved in gun violence—
either as a perpetrator or a victim.
• Police warn the individuals on the SSL
that they are being monitored.
Chicago example continued
Analysis revealed that more than 70 percent of those

who were shot and more than 80 percent of those
arrested for shootings were on the SSL. The researchers
also found that more than 40 percent of homicide
victims had been arrested together with a group of
individuals who, combined, made up only 4 percent of
the population in the community of 82,000.
So does it
work?
Data through: "Guns / Firearm-related deaths". NSC.org copy of U.S. Government

(CDC) data. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
ILP – moving to a
downward trend in crime
• While these examples show the potential of
intelligence-led policing, it’s important to
remember that a key to measurement in all
results is found in agency participation. As
discussed in the Shreveport example***, the
limited data use by only a handful of districts
reduced the significance of the study’s findings
• ***Priscilla Hunt, Jessica Saunders, and John S.
Hollywood, Evaluation of the Shreveport Predictive
Policing Experiment(RAND Corporation, 2014).
ITP-Critical Issues
Maguire and John (2006) found various problems in efforts to
implement intelligence-led policing prior to the National
Intelligence Model (NIM). These include:
• Continued officer involvement in response-led policing
creating problems in setting aside time for proactive work.
• Difficulties in creating and maintaining a steady flow of
intelligence, analysis, preparation of target packages and
conduct of operations.
• Lack of training, senior officer commitment and poor
communication between specialist units.
• Unsympathetic attitudes, cultural resistance and low morale
among officers performing less attractive roles (Tilley,
2008:396).
Information Innovations: CompStat
Computer statistics (Vito, Walsh and
Kunselman, 2005); Computer comparison
statistics (Walsh, 2001); Compare stats
(Silverman, 2006).
Began in the crime control strategy

meetings of the New York City Police
Department in January 1994, with the
aim of establishing accountability
among the city’s 76 police commanders
(Magers, 2004)
CompStat gained traction due to the crime

drop that occurred around this time,
cementing the view (whether true or not)
that CompStat was responsible for making
the city safer,: Major crime fell by half from
1993 to 1998 (Walsh, 2001)
39
Let‘s have a brief look at this in action
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgME9E-eLJ0
How useful is CompStat?
• While studies have helpfully described how CompStat has been implemented
(for a summary, see Weisburd and others, 2006), the evidence on its effect on
crime is limited.
• Draw firm conclusions about CompStat's impact is difficult because it has usually
been introduced alongside other policing strategies (such as hot spots policing).
• Even advocates of CompStat have highlighted there is insufficient evidence to
claim it can reduce crime (Silverman, 2006).
https://www.college.police.uk/research/what-works-policing-reduce-crime/compstat
How useful is
CompStat?
• Research on CompStat implementation has highlighted
that the meetings tend to be used to hold people to
account for their performance, rather than for delivering
problem-solving (Weisburd and others, 2006; Santos,
2013; Vito and others, 2017; Yuksel, 2014).
• As a result, CompStat may reinforce traditional
'command and control' police hierarchies and approaches
and be a barrier to innovative local crime reduction
activity (Yuksel, 2014).
• One study found, for example, that meetings focused on
problem-solving produced greater innovation and had
stronger crime control gains than CompStat meetings
based around statistics (Bond and Braga, 2015).
• An excessive focus on accountability can also increase the
pressure on police leaders to deliver the numbers
regardless of how they do it (for example, manipulating
crime figures or not recording crimes) (Silverman, 2006;
Eterno and others, 2016).
Media take on CompStat
Points of convergence
Community
Policing
Problem-oriented Intelligence-led
Policing Policing
Obvious points of difference
Background
Conception of policing &

police officers
Characteristic forms of
thinking and action
Success criteria
Background
Poor detection Demand

rate exceeding
capacity
Lack of
legitimacy
Police mission
Law Dealing with

enforcement police-
relevant
Community problems
governance
Core personnel
Intelligence units/ analysts

tasking and co-
ordinating groups
Community beat
officers
Problem diagnosis
Bad people Crime

opportunities
Communities in
need
Intervention focus
Person
Event pattern
Place
Intervention focus
Evidence/
Data
intelligence
Community
concerns
Characteristics across the policing models
Traditional Community POP CompStat ILP
Easily defined? Yes No Fairly easy Yes Easy, but evolving
Easily adopted Yes Superficially Difficult Yes Managerially

challenging
Orientation? Police administrative Neighbourhoods Problems Police administrative Criminal groups,
units units prolific serious
offenders, victims,
hot spots
Hierarchical focus? Top down Bottom up As appropriate for Top down Top down
the problem
Who determines Police management Community Varies from problem Police management Police management
priorities? to problem from crime analysis from crime
intelligence
Target? Offence or crime Unclear Crime and disorder, Crime and disorder Prolific offenders,
detection and other problems and hot spots crime problems and
hot spots
Criteria for success Increased arrests and Satisfied community Reduction of problem Lower crime rates Detection, reduction
detections or disruption of crime
or problem
Expected benefit? Increased efficiency Increased police Reduced crime and Reduced crime Reduced crime and
legitimacy other problems harm
Source: Ratcliffe (2016)
Useful website for interesting data
https://dataunodc.un.org

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Policing and Crime

After having attended this lesson, you will be able to:

Problem Oriented Policing

Prof. Matthew Manning, SS3120, City University of Hong Kong,

Tactical dimension What more can be done?

Source: ASU Centre for Problem Oriented Policing

Source: ASU Centre for Problem Oriented Policing

Source: Centre for Problem-oriented Policing

• Identify recurring problems

the problem Researching what is known about the problem type

Source: Centre for Problem-oriented Policing

Image attribution: Alpha Stock Images - http://alphastockimages.com/ 14

To design an appropriate response:

Searching for what

Source: Centre for Problem-oriented Policing

Image attribution: Pix4free.org - link to - https://pix4free.org/

• Determining whether the plan was implemented.

Does this fall within the definition of a problem?

Source: Centre for Problem-oriented Policing

Gainesville Robbery data showed:

Source: Centre for Problem-oriented Policing

Department researched other databases (e.g. National Association of

o Kent, Ohio reduced robberies by 74%

• a 6-month study conducted in 1987

• Lack of data for analyzing problems: Most police

• Problems in analysis: Police services have found it

• Demands for response: There is certainly a sense among many police

• Organizational obstacles: Sustained and committed leadership

Split up into groups to undertake the below exercise.

• Source: The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)

• The main impetus for intelligence-led policing is the supposed

Strategic assessments Level 1: local issues

Level 3: national/ international

Analysis revealed that more than 70 percent of those

Data through: "Guns / Firearm-related deaths". NSC.org copy of U.S. Government

Began in the crime control strategy

CompStat gained traction due to the crime

Conception of policing &

Poor detection Demand

Law Dealing with

Intelligence units/ analysts

Bad people Crime

Easily defined? Yes No Fairly easy Yes Easy, but evolving

Easily adopted Yes Superficially Difficult Yes Managerially

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