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Analysis of Road Traffic Crashes in the Narayanghat to Mugling Road Segment

in Nepal

Conference Paper · August 2023

DOI: 10.1063/5.0162469

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RESEARCH ARTICLE | AUGUST 24 2023

Analysis of road traffic crashes in the Narayanghat to

Mugling road segment in Nepal 
Om Prakash Giri  ; Padma Bahadur Shahi; Sandeep Poddar

AIP Conference Proceedings 2854, 030004 (2023)

https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0162469

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25 August 2023 12:35:21

 Analysis of Road Traffic Crashes in the Narayanghat to
Mugling Road Segment in Nepal
Om Prakash Giri1, a), Padma Bahadur Shahi2), and Sandeep Poddar1)
1)
Lincoln University College, Wisma Lincoln, No. 12-18, Jalan SS 6/12, 47301 Petaling
Jaya, Selangor D. E., Malaysia
2)
Visiting Professor, Pulchowk Campus, Institute of Engineering, Kathmandu, Nepal
a)
Corresponding author’s email: omgi5@pu.edu.np

Abstract. Road crashes are a leading cause of deaths and severe injuries globally. They are an increasing problem that
has immense sectorial and economic impacts. Reducing road traffic crashes (RTCs) is a crucial public safety challenge;
therefore, accident analysis has been a burning subject of much research in recent decades. This research aims to analyze
RTCs in a Narayanghat to Mugling road segment in Nepal. The data on RTCs, injuries, and fatalities were obtained from
the Nepal Traffic Police office. The analysis shows the accident number by year, by month of the year, accidents by time
of the day, and the factors responsible for the accidents, like weather and vehicles involved. The analysis further shows
the distribution of accidents by the year's seasons. The result revealed that RTCs are relatively higher in extreme weather.
As far as vehicle-wise accident rates are concerned, trucks are the riskiest, followed by buses. Accidents are more
common at night than during the day. Several factors are responsible for accidents, but drivers' faults, such as reckless
driving, reckless overtaking, speed driving, etc., account for 80% of total accidents and are the chief causes of RTCs. The
situations suggest the urgent need to address the deteriorating situation in RTCs and the need to take appropriate action.

25 August 2023 12:35:21

INTRODUCTION
Road traffic crashes (RTCs) are the primary cause of mortality and one of the world's most serious concerns,
with far-reaching social and economic consequences. One of the most pressing problems in a developing country is
road safety. RTCs are the eighth biggest cause of mortality worldwide and are expected to reach the top five by
2030 [1]. Nepal, a developing country, is not immune to the consequences of RTCs, which have become a major
problem for the country's growth. Nepalese roadways are among the most dangerous in the world, with road traffic
crashes more than 100 times higher than in Japan and ten times more likely than in [2].
Road users on Nepali highways in general, and the Narayanghat to Mugling highway in particular, are diverse,
including motorbikes, buses, lorries, multi-axle commercial vehicles, and so on. Since the early 2000s, the number
of road traffic fatalities and injuries in Nepal has been steadily increasing. According to the World Health
Organization, the death rate in 2016 was expected to be 15.9 per 100,000 people [1]. RTCs are complex, including
the interplay of various pre-crash variables such as the kind of road user, the quantity, type, and condition of cars,
and the road environment [3]. RTCs are major contributors to vehicle and driver behavior, vehicle attributes, road-
traffic characteristics, and environmental consequences [4].
RTCs are becoming more common, putting a disproportionate global health cost on poorer countries [5].
According to Rolison et al. [6], the major factors contributing to RTCs are unsafe road infrastructure, unsafe
vehicles, road user behavior, inexperience, and risk-taking behavior, excessive speeding, reckless driving, traffic
violations, driving under the influence of alcohol and drugs, use of mobile phones while driving, insufficient traffic
law enforcement, and insufficient post-crash care. Many developing nations have greater accident rates than
Western industrial countries, and road safety is a major concern. Road traffic accidents, on the other hand, are a
substantial but avoidable source of death, disability, and economic loss in developing nations.
Analysis of traffic accident data is critical for addressing a variety of issues, including understanding the
contributing factors in an accident's, identifying hotspots, and informing policy decisions concerning road safety
management [7]. The primary goal of this study is to examine road traffic accidents in Nepal's Narayanghat to
Mugling highway sector. The major source of data for the study is accident data from the Nepal traffic police
database from 2016 to 2018. This route is a rural two-lane road section that is 35 kilometers long. Even though the
chosen road section is constantly being modernized, the average number of traffic accidents each year is 76. As a
result, the route is regarded as one of the most hazardous highway sections in the country. Furthermore, the terrain
and curve system of the route, as well as the meteorological conditions and surroundings, all contribute to road

Sustainable Developments in Materials Science, Technology and Engineering

AIP Conf. Proc. 2854, 030004-1–030004-7; https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0162469
Published by AIP Publishing. 978-0-7354-4612-0/$30.00

030004-1
accidents. Furthermore, the route is located in an unstable geological zone, which causes structural damage owing to
regular landslides.
Data is analyzed and presented in terms of the vehicle involved in the accident, the type of accident, the time of
the accident, the severity of the accident, the occurrence of accidents by months, the causes of the accidents, and so
on.

Vehicle-wise Crash Rates

Figure 1 depicts the percentage of accidents caused by various types of vehicles. The majority of accidents are
caused by trucks, buses, motorbikes, and cars/vans. Trucks cause the greatest number of accidents, followed by
buses, motorbikes, and cars/vans. Between 2016 and 2018, there were 229 accidents on the Narayanghat to Mugling
road section. Trucks and mini-trucks were responsible for 46 percent of all accidents. Buses, minibusses, and
microbuses were responsible for 19 percent of all serious vehicle-related accidents. Cars, vans, and motorbikes each
accounted for 18% of all accidents.

Types of Vehicles

46
50

40

30
19 18 18
20
Percentage
10

25 August 2023 12:35:21

0
Truck Bus Car, Van Motorcycle

FIGURE 1. Percentage of Crashes by Types of Vehicles

Time of Crashes
Figure 2 depicts the percentage of accidents that occur during the day and at night. According to the graph, a
larger percentage of crashes happened at night. On average, 53 percent of accidents happened at night and 47
percent occurred during the day. It indicates that driving at night can be riskier than driving during the day.

55 52 53
60 48
45 47
50
40
Day
30
20 Night
10
0
2016 2017 2018

FIGURE 2. Percentage of Crashes during Day and Nighttime

Month-wise Distribution of Road Accidents

Figure 3 depicts the month-by-month distribution of RTCs in the research area. Although the monthly variance
in road collisions is not significant, road crashes are greater from December to February and June to July. It

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demonstrates that harsh weather has an impact on the occurrence of RTCs. RTCs are higher from December through
February. It might be due to low visibility on the roadways caused by foggy weather conditions. In general, traffic
accidents are greater in June and August than in other months. It might be due to rain and landslides. As a result,
inclement weather influences the number and severity of traffic accidents. Fog is a notable meteorological factor
that has a significant impact on RTCs and related safety measures because it limits visibility on the roadways and
has a detrimental impact on the driver's perception, visual capacity, and decision preferences. Drivers try to spend
less time on the road in these conditions by raising their speed; however, driving at high speeds in fog with limited
sight can result in RTCs. As a result, foggy weather conditions contribute to an increase in road accidents by
influencing drivers' perception, vehicle speed, and distance traveled.

25
22

20

15 13 2016
10 2017
10 9 9 9 9
8 8 8 8 2018
7 7 7 77
6 6 6
5 5 5 5
5 4 4 4 4
3 3 3 3
2 2
1 11

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0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

FIGURE 3. Number of Road Accidents by Month of Occurrence in 2016, 2017, and 2018

Crash by Severity
As shown in figure 4 it can be concluded that the percentage of minor accidents is highest during the study
period. Crash severities are highest in the year 2016 and lowest in the year 2018.

25 22

20 18 17
15
13 2016
15
10 2017
10 8
6 7
2018
5

0
Minor Injury Serious Injury Death

FIGURE 4. Percentage of Crashes by Severity

Types of Crashes
Figure 5 below shows the percentage of crash scenarios in the study area. The total number of crashes in 2017 is
58, which is less than in 2016 and 2018, while the number of fatal crashes is the highest and non-fatal and property

030004-3
damaged only crashes are the lowest. The total sum of non-fatal and property-damage-only crashes was highest in
2018.

60 52
47
50

40
30 29 2016
30
20 2017
20 15
11 13 12 2018
10

0
Fatal Non-fatal Property
Damaged Only

FIGURE 5. Types of Crashes

Crashes by Year
Figure 6 shows the trend of accidents by year. Analysis of road traffic accidents reveals that in 2017, the rate of
accidents decreased and still increased in the year 2018.

25 August 2023 12:35:21

Crash by Year

93
100 78
80 58
60
Percentage
40
20
0
2016 2017 2018

FIGURE 6. Percentage of Crashes by Year

Causes of Road Crashes

Figure 7 presents the cause-wise distribution of RTCs in the study area from 2016 to 2018. It clearly shows that
drivers' fault is the most critical factor responsible for crashes. Within the category of drivers’ fault, crashes caused
due to recklessness driving and recklessness over taking accounted for 39% and 19%, respectively. Exceeding speed
accounted for the second-highest portion of 30%. Drivers’ fault as drunk driving and drugs accounted for 4%. The
crashes related to the road conditions and motor vehicle defects are negligible compared to drivers' fault. They
accounted for only 5% of total RTCs. Due to driver's fatigue, 3% of crashes happened.

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 Causes of Accidents

4
30 39
Driver's Recklessness
Reckless Overtaking
Driver's Fatigue
5
Mechanical Causes
19 Over Speed
3 Drunk Driving

FIGURE 7. Case-wise Distribution of Road Accidents

DISCUSSION

The human component is the leading cause of road accidents. According to one research, fog, rain, extreme cold,
and extreme heat were all directly connected to crashes. This study revealed that the percentage of RTCs caused by
fog and rainfall is 34% and 25%, respectively [8]. Research conducted in India concluded that the most prevalent
cause of road traffic accidents was exceeding the speed limit (47.1 percent), followed by the driver's use of alcohol

25 August 2023 12:35:21

(32.1 percent), and reckless driving at corners (20.7 percent). It has been shown that 68 percent of deaths and
injuries are caused primarily by reckless driving, while 32 percent are caused by drunk driving [9]. Research is
undertaken in the State of Qatar to investigate the pattern of RTCs and their causes and revealed that negligent
driving contributed to 71 percent of accidents, tailgating contributed to 16 percent, and excessive speed contributed
to 13 percent [10]. Another study was conducted with the primary goal of investigating the causes of RTCs in the
Saudi Arabian region of Hail. According to the findings, human error is responsible for 67 percent of RTCs, road
conditions for 29 percent, and vehicle problems for 4%. Similarly, the most influencing factors responsible for road
traffic accidents are day of the week, driver's age, weather, elevation, and vehicle type [11].
According to Touahmia [12], the primary causes of RTCs are excessive speed and violations of traffic norms and
regulations. Driving speed is often regarded as a crucial factor influencing the incidence and severity of RTCs
worldwide [13]. Research performed in Nepal revealed that driver irresponsibility and over speeding are the primary
causes of RTCs. Similarly, careless driving on two-wheelers increases the likelihood of collisions and deaths [14].
Furthermore, they discovered that trucks and tankers are more likely to be involved in accidents than buses and
motorcyclists. According to WHO, drinking and driving is responsible for 5% to 35% of all deaths on the roads.
Drinking and driving accidents in Nepal have fallen substantially between 2013/14 and 2018. It is owing to the
stringent enforcement of anti-drink and driving laws. Similarly, Zhang et al. [15] determined that accidents caused
by tired driving account for around 20% of all accidents and 40% of serious accidents in China. Other statistical data
suggested that traffic rule infractions were the leading cause of road traffic accidents [16]. Accidents can be
considerably reduced if traffic laws and regulations are strictly enforced. External influences, such as seasonal
fluctuations in weather, may also have an impact on road traffic safety. Weather-related factors account for around
5% of all road traffic accidents [17]. Human behavior, such as sleepiness, inattention, excessive speed, disregard for
road signals, and bad overtaking, was shown to be responsible for 85 percent of accidents on a Cameroonian
highway. Excessive speed was responsible for 34.3 percent of crashes, with inattention while driving accounting for
the remaining 30.3 percent. Trucks and tourist vehicles are the most commonly engaged in accidents. Saturdays and
Fridays were the days with the highest number of collisions. Similarly, the greatest incidents occurred between 12
p.m. and 6 p.m. and between 6 p.m. and midnight, accounting for 35% and 30% of all accidents, respectively [18].
Several factors such as the development of safer cars, better roads and their closer maintenance, weather forecasting,
general media warnings before particularly inclement weather, raising of public awareness of road safety, and
improved emergency services and health systems, among other matters [19].

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 CONCLUSION
The data reveals that the distribution of traffic fatalities and injuries changes by month and time on the
Narayanghat to Mugling highway segment. The majority of incidents occur in May-June and December-January,
indicating that harsh weather impacts the occurrence of road accidents. Trucks are the most dangerous vehicles in
terms of accident rates, followed by buses. Nighttime accidents are more prevalent than daytime accidents.
Accidents are caused by a variety of reasons, but driver error is the most important, accounting for 80 percent of
total accidents. Finally, it is stated that developing an accident reduction plan is required for improved performance.
Evaluation of risk factors allows for the identification of locations that might improve road safety by correcting
shortcomings in human factors, geometric design, and so on. It is feasible to minimize the frequency of RTCs by
implementing effective interventions such as better road planning and design, as well as enforcing traffic rules and
regulations.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

The authors are thankful to the authority of Nepal Traffic Police office and Lincoln University College for
completion of the work.

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