Regional Sustainability 4 (2023) 173–184

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Regional Sustainability
journal homepage: www.keaipublishing.com/en/journals/regional-sustainability

Full Length Article

Evolution of economic linkage network of the cities and counties

on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, China
Zeyu Yang a, b, Shubao Zhang a, b, Jun Lei a, b, *, Xiaolei Zhang b, c, Yanjun Tong a, b,
Zuliang Duan a, Liqin Fan a, b
a
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute
of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China
b
College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
c
Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: The exchanges between cities and counties in the Northern Slope Economic Belt of Tianshan
Entropy method Mountains (NSEBTM) are increasingly frequent and the economic linkages are increasingly close,
Economic linkages but the spatial distribution of economic development and linkages among the cities and counties
Gravity model
within NSEBTM is uneven. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the evolution of spatial-
Network structure
Social network analysis
temporal pattern of the economic linkage network of cities and counties on NSEBTM to promote
Northern Slope Economic Belt of Tianshan the coordinated and integrated development of the regional economy on NSEBTM. In this study,
Mountains we used the modified gravity model and social network analysis method to analyze the spatio-
China temporal evolution characteristics of the economic linkage network structure of cities and
counties on NSEBTM in 2000, 2010, and 2020. The results showed that the comprehensive
development quality level of cities and counties on NSEBTM increased from 2000 to 2020, its
growth rate also increased, and its gap between cities and counties continued expanding. Both the
spatial distribution patterns of the comprehensive development quality level of cities and counties
on NSEBTM in 2000 and 2010 were presented as “high in the middle and low at both ends”, while
the spatial distribution pattern of 2020 was exhibited as “high value and low value staggered”. The
total amount of external economic linkages of cities and counties on NSEBTM showed an obvious
upward trend, and its gap between cities and counties continued expanding, also showing a
pattern of “a strong middle section and weak ends”. The direction of economic linkages of
NSEBTM existed obvious central orientation and geographical proximity. The density of economic
linkage network of NSEBTM increased from 2000 to 2020, and the structure of economic linkage
network changed from single-core structure centered with Urumqi City to multicore structure
centered with Urumqi City, Karamay City, Shihezi City, and Changji City, shifting from unbal-
anced development to balanced development. In the future, we should accelerate the construction
of urban agglomeration on NSEBTM, cultivate a modern Urumqi metropolitan area, improve the
comprehensive development quality of the cities and counties at the eastern and western ends,
strengthen the intensity of economic linkages between cities and counties, optimize the economic
linkage network, and promote the coordinated and integrated development of regional economy.

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: leijun@ms.xjb.ac.cn (J. Lei).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsus.2023.05.002
Received 23 February 2023; Received in revised form 24 April 2023; Accepted 19 May 2023
Available online 25 May 2023
2666-660X/© 2023 Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi
Communications Co. Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Z. Yang, S. Zhang, J. Lei, et al. Regional Sustainability 4 (2023) 173–184

1. Introduction

Under the background of economic globalization, the interregional connection is becoming increasingly close. The flow of various
factors gradually eliminates the limitation of regional space, and communication and dissemination are carried out on a larger scale,
showing a trend of networking (Ou et al., 2015; Zou et al., 2015). Research on the spatial structure and evolution process of economic
connections from the perspective of network has become a hotspot for regional geography and economic geography (Wu et al., 2015).
The economic linkage network takes region as carrier and economic activity as basis, connects different regions through factor flow and
transportation channel diffusion, and enhances the breadth and density of factor circulation through the strengthening of its load ca-
pacity and expansion capacity to promote the coordinated and integrated development of regional economy (Zhong et al., 2016).
In the early 20th century, foreign scholars began to explore the theory and methods of spatial interaction. In 1929, Reilly identified
the market boundaries controlled by retailers in geographic space using the mechanical gravity model and proposed the law of retail
gravity (Tu et al., 2019). Zipf (1946) further introduced spatial connection into the analysis of urban system interaction, thus forming a
theoretical basis for spatial connection research. In 1998, ZHOU Yixing proposed the theory of “Major Directions of Economic Linkage”,
which laid the theoretical foundation for research on China’s spatial economic linkages (Zhou, 1998). Domestic scholars prefer
empirical research (Liu and Shen, 2014), and the research methods and models mainly include gravity model, membership degree and
accessibility analysis, urban flow analysis, etc. (Meng et al., 2009; Wang and Cao, 2016; Yang et al., 2018; Ye et al., 2022). The
development of complex and social networks provides a new perspective for the analysis of economic linkage network (Leng et al., 2011;
Liu et al., 2014).
Network is an abstract expression of the interwoven and interconnected complexity of objective world and a means of simplifying
complex systems (Wu et al., 2015; Jusup et al., 2022). The complexity of social systems can be better understood through the lens of
complexity science (Helbing et al., 2015). Complex network analysis method can analyze network characteristics, structural evolution,
and spatial organization features and patterns (Chen et al., 2020) and has been widely used in various settings such as economic network
(Wu et al., 2015), international business (Kurt and Kurt, 2020), and transnational investment (Yang et al., 2017). Social network analysis
is widely used in network research (Gan et al., 2021; Shen et al., 2021; Xu et al., 2021; Zheng and Cao, 2021; Huo et al., 2022) by
studying the relationships of actors to each other and their influence on network (Fu et al., 2015), mainly from the aspects of spatial
connection structure characteristics, evolution process, development mode optimization, and mechanism analysis (Li et al., 2014; Zhong
et al., 2016; Xie, 2020; Zheng et al., 2021). At present, research on the intensity of economic linkages is mainly conducted from two
perspectives: gravity model and actual factor flow.
With the rapid development of information technology, various flow data such as flow data of transportation and industry, are
widely used in the study of economic linkage, but it is difficult to obtain flow data for long time series. Therefore, in the absence of
concrete flow data, using a gravity model to calculate the intensity of economic linkage is more effective (Gu and Pang, 2008; Liu et al.,
2014; Qian et al., 2015). Jung et al. (2008) measured inter-city traffic flow through traffic statistics data at highway entrances and exits
in Korea, and simulated inter-city traffic flow by gravity model using population size and the distance between cities in the highway
network of Korea; and the results showed that the simulated inter-city traffic flow by gravity model is highly correlated with the
measured traffic flow. Krings et al. (2009) used correlation analysis to show that the intensity of cell phone calls in Belgium is directly
proportional to the population sizes of cities and inversely proportional to the square of the distance between cities, which is similar to
the results of gravity model. Studies have demonstrated that measured flow data are well aligned with gravity model, which is important
for “flow” simulation model when flow data are not available.
As a relatively developed region with a high concentration of productivity, the northern slope economic belt of Tianshan Mountains
(NSEBTM) plays an important role in driving and radiating the economic and social development of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous
Region, China (Ma and Zhang, 2006; Deng, 2020), and is of great significance for the promotion of the Development of the Western
Region in China and the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt (Fu, 2016). In 1989, LU Dadao and CHEN Tian, through the
comprehensive investigation of Xinjiang resource conducted by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, proposed that NSEBTM, the core area
of Xinjiang, is one of the key national development and construction areas and has become a major economic core area in western China
(Lu and Chen, 1989). In 2000, with the implementation of the Development of the Western Region in China, NSEBTM plays a signif-
icantly important role in the economic development of Xinjiang (Li et al., 2002; Yan and Zhang, 2010). In 2011, the National Main
Functional Area Planning took NSEBTM as an important part of building an efficient, coordinated, and sustainable pattern of land and
space development. In 2012, the State Council of the Peoples’ Republic of China officially approved the Development Plan for NSEBTM.
In 2015, the Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road positioned Xinjiang as
the core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt. As one of the largest integrated economic belts in the Belt and Road of China, the green
development model of NSEBTM will provide a reference for countries along the Belt and Road to achieve regional green development
(Xie et al., 2017; Li et al., 2020). In 2021, to provide scientific support for promoting the leapfrog and high-quality development of
Xinjiang, the third Xinjiang scientific expedition was conducted.
Most studies on NSEBTM focus on regional economic linkages (Gao and Lei, 2011; Shen and Cheng, 2016; Li, 2019; Li et al., 2022),
tourism economic connection networks (Wang et al., 2020, 2023), logistics spatial networks (Qi et al., 2016) and the economic dif-
ferences between cities and counties (Tao and Yang, 2005; Gao and Cai, 2014; Chen et al., 2015; Zhao and Jing, 2015). Overall co-
ordination of the various needs on NSEBTM such as urban and rural areas, Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC)-local,
various industries, and economic, social, and ecological environment, has become a major practical issue that needs urgent research and
decision-making (Deng, 2020).
This paper takes the cities and counties on NSEBTM as research objectives, chooses ten indicators to evaluate the comprehensive
quality development level of cities and counties on NSEBTM, and uses gravity model to construct the economic linkage networks of

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those cities and counties in 2000, 2010, and 2020. In this study, we utilized the social network analysis to examine the spatio-temporal
evolution of economic linkage network of cities and counties on NSEBTM and identify the characteristics of these economic linkage
networks from the network perspective. This study enriches the research perspective of county-city economic linkage on NSEBTM, and
provides certain theoretical and practical significance for strengthening the degree of economic linkages between cities and counties,
promoting the flow of factors, improving the breadth and density of circulation, and providing support for the coordinated and inte-
grated development of regional economy on NSEBTM.

2. Data sources and research methods

2.1. Study area

NSEBTM (40
500 –47
150 N, 79
560 –96
220 E) is located in the hinterland of Eurasia, far away from ocean. As located in the temperate
continental climate zone, the average annual precipitation of NSEBTM is 115 mm, the average sunshine duration is 2793 h, and the
average temperature is 9.80
C. The total area of NSEBTM is about 4.00  105 km2, accounting for 23.96% of Xinjiang’s total area; the
population reached approximately 1.00  108 in 2020, accounting for 38.52% of Xinjiang’s total population; and the regional GDP was
8.53  107 CNY in 2020, accounting for 61.83% of Xinjiang’s total output value. Fig. 1 shows all the 30 cities and counties of NSEBTM.
The XPCC cities of Wujiaqu City, Shuanghe City, and Huyanghe City are established late and the data are missing, so we integrated 30
county-level administrative units within NSEBTM into 27 research subjects in this study (Fig. 1).

2.2. Indicator selection and data sources

In this study, based on previous research (Guo et al., 2012; Zhao et al., 2015; Yao et al., 2017; Xie, 2020; Cui et al., 2021), we selected
ten indicators to comprehensively evaluate the quality of cities and counties on NSEBTM, involving economic development level, social
development level, and population size three demensions. Thereinto, the indicators of GDP, per capita GDP, proportion of
non-agricultural industry output value, total retail sales of consumer goods, and advanced industrial structure are used to characterize
the level of economic development (Table 1). The indicators of general public budget revenue and expenditure, number of students in
primary and secondary schools, number of beds in health institutions, and household savings deposit balance represent the level of
social development. The indicator of number of permanent residents represents population size. Due to the data of selected indicators
vary significantly at a 10-year interval, we chose the three-time nodes of 2000, 2010, and 2020 as representative years. During
2000–2020, the administrative divisions have been changed on NSEBTM, including that Miquan City was merged into Urumqi City in
2007 and Alashankou City was established in 2012, in this study the data processing was carried out with existing administrative di-
visions. We utilized Baidu Maps (Baidu, Beijing, China) to obtain the shortest transportation distance between cities and counties on
NSEBTM.

Fig. 1. Schematic diagram of the northern slope economic belt of Tianshan Mountains (NSEBTM). 1, Urumqi City; 2, Karamay City; 3, Shihezi City; 4,
GaoChang District; 5, Shanshan County; 6, Toksun County; 7, Yizhou District; 8, Barkol Kazak Autonomous County; 9, Yiwu County; 10, Changji City
11, Fukang City; 12, Hutubi County; 13, Manas County; 14, Qitai County; 15, Jimsar County; 16, Mori Kazak Autonomous County; 17, Kuytun City;
18, Tacheng City; 19, Usu City; 20, Emin County; 21, Shawan City; 22, Toli County; 23, Yumin County; 24, Bole City; 25, Jinghe County; 26,
Wenquan County; 27, Alashankou City; 28, Wujiaqu City; 29, Shuanghe City; 30, Huyanghe City.

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Table 1
Selected indicators of comprehensive quality development level and data sources.
Dimension Indicator Unit Data source

Economic GDP  108 Statistic Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (2001, 2011,
development CNY 2021)
Per capita GDP per capita CNY Statistic Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (2001, 2011,
2021)
Proportion of non-agricultural industry output % Statistic Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (2001, 2011,
value 2021)
Total retail sales of consumer goods  105 Statistic Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (2001, 2011,
CNY 2021)
Advanced industrial structure % Statistic Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (2001, 2011,
2021)

Social development General public budget revenue and expenditure
Number of students in primary and secondary
schools
Number of beds in health institutions
Household savings deposit balance
 105 National Bureau of Statistics (2001, 2011, 2021)
CNY
National Bureau of Statistics (2001, 2011, 2021)
National Bureau of Statistics (2001, 2011, 2021)
 105 National Bureau of Statistics (2001, 2011, 2021)
CNY

Population Number of permanent residents Statistic Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (2001, 2011,
2021)

2.3. Research models and methods

2.3.1. Entropy method

We adopted entropy method to calculate the weight of the selected ten indicators to obtain the comprehensive quality development
level of each city or county on NSEBTM (Geng and Zhang, 2014; Tang, 2018; Tu et al., 2021), as it is a comprehensive evaluation
approach generally used for multiple objects and multiple indicators (Table 2).
If xij is positive,


xij –min xij
yij ¼

; ði ¼ 1; 2; :::; n; j ¼ 1; 2; :::; mÞ; (1)
max xij –min xij

if xij is negative,


max xij –xij
yij ¼

 ði ¼ 1; 2; :::; n; j ¼ 1; 2; :::; mÞ; (2)
max xij –min xij

1 X n


Ej ¼ – Pij ln Pij ; (3)
lnðnÞ i¼1

yij
Pij ¼ P
n ; (4)
yij
i¼1

Table 2
Weight of each indicator of comprehensive quality development level.
Indicator Weight Indicator direction

GDP 0.12 þ
Per capita GDP per capita 0.06 þ
Proportion of nonagricultural industry output value 0.01 þ
Total retail sales of consumer goods 0.17 þ
Advanced industrial structure 0.03 þ
General public budget revenue and expenditure 0.11 þ
Number of students in primary and secondary schools 0.07 þ
Number of beds in health institutions 0.13 þ
Household savings deposit balance 0.22 þ
Number of permanent residents 0.08 þ

Note: þmeans that the indicator has a positive effect on the comprehensive quality development level of a region.

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1–Ej
Wj ¼ P
n
; (5)
1–Ej
i¼1

X
Mi ¼ Wj  yij  100; (6)

where xij is the raw value of indicator j in region i; min(xij) is the minimum raw value of indicator j in region i; max(xij) is the maximum
raw value of indicator j in region i; yij is the standardized value of indicator j in region i; Ej is the information entropy of indicator j; Pij is
the proportion of index value of indicator j in region i (%); Wj is the weight of indicator j; Mi is the comprehensive quality development
level of region i; m is the number of indicators; and n is the number of regions.

2.3.2. Intensity of economic linkage

The key point of the establishment of the economic linkage network of cities and counties on NSEBTM is to calculate the intensity of
economic linkages between cities and counties by using gravity model. In the traditional gravity model, researchers usually select single-
factor indicator such as population or GDP. Depending on the differences of research question, gravity model can be modified (Ou et al.,
2015; Wang et al., 2023). In this study, we used the comprehensive quality development level instead of single-factor in gravity model.
At the same time, considering the economic relationship between two cities and counties is not equal, we modified the gravity constant
and used the GDP proportion to reflect its own impact on other cities and counties (Ou et al., 2015; Zou et al., 2015; Zheng et al., 2016).
The intensity of economic linkage can be calculated as follows:

Mi  Mz
Riz ¼ kiz ; (7)
Dbiz

Gi
kiz ¼ ; (8)
Gi þ Gz

X
n
Ri ¼ Riz ; (9)
z¼1

where Riz is the intensity of economic linkage between region i and region z; Mi and Mz are the comprehensive quality development level
of region i and region z, respectively; b represents the influence degree of distance on economic linkage intensity, and in this study b ¼ 1;
Diz is the distance between region i and region z by road; kiz is the gravity correction factor from region i to region z; Gi and Gz are the GDP
of region i and region z, respectively; and Ri is the total amount of external economic linkages of region i.

2.3.3. Social network analysis

Social network analysis is mainly used to describe the characteristics of relationships between organizations, determine the types of
relationships, and analyze the impact of such relationships on network structure. It can reveal the characteristics of the overall network
structure and reflect the role and status of individuals in the network (Li et al., 2021), by using city and county “relational data” that are
transformed from city and county “attribute data” by gravity model, that is, binary processing.

(1) Network density. This variable reflects the intensity of economic linkages between cities and counties within the network. The
greater the network density is, the closer the economic linkage (Liu, 2019). We obtained the values of network density with the
help of the “Network-Density” analysis module in model UCINET software (Reachsoft, Beijing, China).
(2) Network centrality and network centralization. Network centrality is a quantitative analysis of individual weight, and its
commonly used indicators include degree centrality, closeness centrality, and betweenness centrality. The greater the degree
centrality of a region is, the more central the region in the core position of the network; the greater the closeness centrality of a
region is, the more control the region has over the entire network or local network; the greater the betweenness centrality of a
region is, the more important the intermediary role of the region. Network centralization reflects the concentration of the overall
network, and the closer the value of network centralization is to 100%, the more concentrated the network. Degree centrality,
closeness centrality, and betweenness centrality of cities and counties on NSEBTM were obtained by using the “Network-Cen-
trality-Multiple Centrality Measures” analysis module in model UCINET software. Network centralization was obtained using the
“Network-Centrality” analysis module in model UCINET software.

3. Results and analysis

3.1. Spatio-temporal changes of cities and counties development

We obtained the comprehensive quality development level of each city or county on NSEBTM using entropy method, calculated its
average value, statistical extreme value, and coefficient of variation (Table 3), and divided the comprehensive quality development level
of cities and counties on NSEBTM into five levels (Fig. 2).

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The comprehensive quality development level of cities and counties on NSEBTM increased from 2000 to 2020. The mean value of
comprehensive quality development level increased by 2.10 from 3.34 in 2000 to 5.44 in 2010 and by 4.65 from 2010 to 2020 (Table 3).
The gap of comprehensive development quality level between different cities and counties continued widening from 2000 to 2020. The
statistical extreme value and coefficient of variation increased from 21.15 to 1.18 in 2000 to 44.85 and 1.56 in 2010, respectively,
increasing by 2.12 and 1.32 times from 2000 to 2010, respectively, and by 2.02 and 1.06 times from 2010 to 2020.
In 2000, the comprehensive quality development level of cities and counties on NSEBTM showed a spatial distribution pattern of
“high in the middle and low at both ends” with Urumqi City as the core (Fig. 2). The comprehensive quality development level of Urumqi
City reached 22.51 in 2000, which was 4.88 and 4.61 times that of Karamay City and Yizhou District, respectively. In 2010, NSEBTM
basically maintained the spatial distribution pattern of “high in the middle and low at both ends”, but some cities such as Bole City and
Yizhou District became high-value areas at both ends relative to surrounding cities and counties. In 2020, the comprehensive quality
development level of cities and counties showed a spatial distribution pattern of “high value and low value staggered”, and Urumqi City,
Changji City, Shihezi City, Karamay City, Bole City, Tacheng City, and Yizhou District became high-value areas relative to surrounding
cities and counties.
There are 12 border cities and counties on NSEBTM, and the comprehensive quality development level of the cities and counties
along the border was lower than the average value of comprehensive quality development level of NSEBTM, except for Yizhou District.
The overall development of the cities and counties along the border was weak, among which the development of Wenquan County,
Yumin County, Toli County, Mori Kazak Autonomous County, and Barkol Kazak Autonomous County was slow. From 2000 to 2010, the
growth rate of comprehensive quality development level of the cities and counties along the border was lower than the overall level of
NSEBTM, but after 2010, the growth rate of the border cities and counties exceeded the average growth rate of NSEBTM.

3.2. Intensity and direction of economic linkage

We calculated the intensity of the economic linkages between cities and counties on NSEBTM in 2000, 2010, and 2020 and the total
amount of their respective external economic linkages (Table 4) using the modified gravity model formula, and adopted the chordal
diagram to show the intensity and direction of economic linkages between cities and counties on NSEBTM (Fig. 3).
The total amount of external economic linkages of cities and counties on NSEBTM had a significant upward trend, and its growth rate
continued increasing in past two decades. In 2000, the sum and average values of the total external economic linkages of cities and
counties on NSEBTM were 16.05 and 0.62, respectively. The sum and average values increased to 46.12 and 1.77 in 2010, respectively,
2.87 and 2.85 times of that in 2000, respectively, and increased to 158.23 and 5.86 in 2020, respectively, 3.43 and 3.30 times compared
with that of 2010, respectively, indicating that the spatial interaction of cities and counties on NSEBTM has been continuously enhanced
and the connection has become closer. The gap in the total amount of external economic linkages between cities and counties on
NSEBTM continued expanding from 2000 to 2020. The statistical extreme value, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation of the
total amount of external economic linkages of cities and counties on NSEBTM widened from 7.57, 1.42, and 2.30 in 2000, respectively,
to 24.64, 4.68, and 2.64 in 2010, respectively, and reached 88.96, 16.56, and 2.83 in 2020, respectively.
The total amount of external economic linkages of cities and counties on NSEBTM showed obvious geographical distribution
characteristics of “a strong middle section and two weak ends”. The sum of the total foreign economic linkages of the top ten cities and
countries in 2000, 2010, and 2020 were 13.22, 41.21, and 137.22, respectively, accounting for 82.40%, 89.33%, and 86.73% of the
entire region, respectively, which were 13.39, 21.25 and 18.96 times that of the last ten cities and counties in 2000, 2010, 2020,
respectively. Due to far away from the center area of NSEBTM and small population and economic scale, the total amount of external
economic linkages of the border city or country was relatively weak.
The direction of economic linkages between cities and counties on NSEBTM was relatively stable, with obvious central orientation
and geographical proximity. In 2000, 2010, and 2020, Urumqi City, Karamay City, Shihezi City, Changji City, Fukang City, Hutubi
County, Manas County, Kuytun City, Usu City, and Shawan City were the main contact centers. The economic linkage intensity of
Urumqi City-Changji City, Urumqi City-Fukang City, Urumqi City-Shihezi City, Urumqi City-Karamay City, Changji City-Hutubi County,
Shihezi City-Manas County, and Kuytun City-Usu City were stronger. Urumqi City, Karamay City, Shihezi City, and Changji City had a
stronger impact on other cities and counties (Fig. 3).

Table 3
Statistics of comprehensive quality development level of cities and counties on the northern slope economic belt of Tianshan Mountains (NSEBTM) in
2000, 2010, and 2020.
Statistics Comprehensive quality development level

2000 2010 2020

Average value 3.34 5.44 10.09

Statistical extreme value 21.15 44.85 90.55
Coefficient of variation 1.18 1.56 1.66

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Fig. 2. Distribution of comprehensive quality development level of cities and counties on NSEBTM in 2000 (a), 2010 (b), and 2020 (c). The shade of
color represents the comprehensive quality development level, the darker the color means the higher the comprehensive quality development level,
thus means the wider the service range.

Table 4
Statistics of the total amount of external economic linkages of cities and counties on NSEBTM in 2000, 2010, and 2020.
Statistics Total amount of external economic linkages

2000 2010 2020

Sum 16.05 46.12 158.23

Average value 0.62 1.77 5.86
Statistical extreme value 7.57 24.64 88.96
Standard deviation 1.42 4.68 16.56
Coefficient of variation 2.30 2.64 2.83

3.3. Evolution of economic linkage network

We constructed the important economic linkage network of cities and counties on NSEBTM by taking the average economic linkage
intensity of 0.11 as threshold to further reveal the overall structure characteristics of the economic linkage network of NSEBTM and
reflect the role and status of each city or country in the network (Fig. 4).
In 2000, there were only 22 economic linkage channels between cities and counties on NSEBTM. The network was relatively sparse,
mainly with Urumqi City as single center radiating 16 channels to the surrounding cities and counties (Fig. 4). In 2010, the number of
economic linkage channels on NSEBTM increased to 59, an increase of 2.69 times over 2000. The number of economic linkage channels
(i.e., the density of economic linkage) of Urumqi City increased to 25, radiating to all cities and counties on NSEBTM. At the same time,
the economic linkage channels of Karamay City, Shihezi City, and Changji City increased, forming a local network. In 2020, the number
of economic linkage channels on NSEBTM increased to 172, 2.92 times of that in 2010, indicating that the network became increasingly
close than 2010. The number of economic linkage channels of Karamay City, Shihezi City, and Changji City further increased, and their
local networks expanded. The economic linkage channels between the border cities and counties in the eastern and western ends of
NESBTM increased significantly, with local networks centered on Bole City and Tacheng City in western end and a local network
centered on Yizhou District in eastern end. From 2000 to 2020, the structure of economic linkage network of cities and counties on
NSEBTM changed from a single-core structure dominated by Urumqi City to a multicore structure dominated by Urumqi City, Karamay
City, Shihezi City, and Changji City.

3.4. Network centrality and network centralization

We calculated the degree centrality, closeness centrality, and betweenness centrality of cities and counties on NSEBTM in 2000,
2010, and 2020 by UCINET software (Table 5).
In the past 20 years, the degree centrality and closeness centrality of cities and counties on NSEBTM increased. The status of core
cities such as Urumqi City, Karamay City, Shihezi City, and Changji City were greatly improved, and they strongly controlled over the

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Fig. 3. Intensity and direction map of economic linkages between cities and counties on NSEBTM in 2000 (a), 2010 (b), and 2020 (c). The line
represents the economic linkage between two cities or countries, the arrow represents the direction of economic linkage, the thickness represents the
intensity of economic linkage, and the color of line is based on the target city.

Fig. 4. Economic linkage network of NSEBTM in 2000 (a), 2010 (b), and 2020 (c). The line represents the economic linkage intensity between two
cities or counties is greater than the average economic linkage intensity of 0.11.

overall network. With the increase in the degree centrality and closeness centrality of Gaochang District, Yizhou District, Kuytun City,
Bole City, and Alashankou City, they played strong controlling roles in local network. The overall betweenness centrality of NSEBTM
showed an upward trend, with the average value rising from 1.50 in 2000 to 2.56 in 2020. The betweenness centrality of core cities were

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higher than other cities and counties, indicating that the core cities play a role of connecting the economic linkages of other cities and
counties. The variation of betweenness centrality of each city or county was different, unlike many cities and counties, the betweenness
centrality of Urumqi City decreased from 2000 to 2020.
The degree of network centralization of cities and counties on NSEBTM increased from 63.00% in 2000 to 92.33% in 2010. With the
enhancement of polarization effect, the economic linkages mainly concentrated in Urumqi City, Karamay City, Shihezi City, and Changji
City. In 2020, it dropped to 69.23%, the degree of concentration reduced and the diffusion effect enhanced, indicating that NSEBTM has
changed from unbalanced development to balanced development.

4. Discussion and conclusions

4.1. Discussion

Network research is prevalent, and research results based on regional spatial structure from a network perspective have proliferated.
The focus of research has shifted to the study of interactions between cities and counties, and it is believed that the development of cities
and counties depends not only on their own functions and characteristics, but also on interactions and spatial spillover effects (Huang
et al., 2020). Increasing linkages would lead to a polycentric spatial structure of region. Polycentric spatial development strategies have
become the forefront of regional spatial research, emphasizing decentralized agglomeration rather than agglomeration based on spatial
proximity (Xu et al., 2021). Relevant studies have confirmed the economic effects of a polycentric spatial structure, and found that a
polycentric spatial structure is conducive to the integration of economic activities and resources on a larger scale, further improving the
utilization efficiency of factors, thus generating greater economic benefits (Meijers and Burger, 2010; Meijers et al., 2016). The results of
this study showed that NSEBTM exhibits a multi-core structure, which is consistent with the findings of Gao and Cai (2014) and Fu
(2016). The regional development of NSEBTM also emphasizes decentralized agglomeration rather than agglomeration based on spatial
proximity.
At present, the academic community is still exploring the methods for comprehensively reflecting the spatial economic network (Qin
and Han, 2022). It is unreasonable not to consider the influence of transportation on the economic linkage between cities and counties.
The cities and counties on NSEBTM are far apart from each other and spatially dispersed. The development of cities and counties on
NSEBTM is based on a central node and then spreads along the traffic arteries (Zhang et al., 2008, 2010). Moreover, economic linkage is
a complex and comprehensive concept, it is insufficient to characterize the intensity of economic linkages between cities and counties by
using only one kind of flow data. The spatial structure of the same flow data at different scales and different flow data at the same scale is
different. The use of different scales causes “quantitative changes” and the use of different flow data causes “qualitative changes” in

Table 5
Network centrality of economic linkage network on NSEBTM in 2000, 2010, and 2020.
Region Degree centrality (%) Closeness centrality (%) Betweenness centrality (%)

2000 2010 2020 2000 2010 2020 2000 2010 2020

Urumqi City 64.00 100.00 100.00 10.00 100.00 100.00 39.00 85.11 25.84
Karamay City 4.00 44.00 96.15 9.43 64.10 96.30 0.00 4.94 19.23
Shihezi City 8.00 32.00 76.92 9.47 59.52 81.25 0.00 0.94 8.60
Gaochang District 4.00 8.00 26.92 9.43 52.08 57.78 0.00 0.00 0.19
Shanshan County 4.00 4.00 23.08 9.43 51.02 56.52 0.00 0.00 0.05
Toksun County 4.00 8.00 19.23 9.43 52.08 55.32 0.00 0.00 0.00
Yizhou District 4.00 4.00 26.92 9.43 51.02 57.78 0.00 0.00 0.89
Barkol Kazak Autonomous County 0.00 4.00 7.69 – 51.02 52.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Yiwu County 0.00 4.00 19.23 – 51.02 55.32 0.00 0.00 0.05
Changji City 8.00 28.00 76.92 9.47 58.14 81.25 0.00 1.08 8.82
Fukang City 4.00 8.00 26.92 9.43 52.08 57.78 0.00 0.00 0.12
Hutubi County 8.00 16.00 30.77 9.47 54.35 59.09 0.00 0.00 0.19
Manas County 8.00 16.00 30.77 9.47 54.35 59.09 0.00 0.00 0.04
Qitai County 4.00 4.00 26.92 9.43 51.02 57.78 0.00 0.00 0.12
Jimsar County 4.00 4.00 26.92 9.43 51.02 57.78 0.00 0.00 0.12
Mori Kazak Autonomous County 4.00 4.00 19.23 9.43 51.02 55.32 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kuytun City 8.00 24.00 42.31 9.47 56.82 63.42 0.00 0.25 0.69
Tacheng City 0.00 8.00 30.77 – 52.08 59.09 0.00 0.00 0.34
Usu City 8.00 16.00 30.77 9.47 54.35 59.09 0.00 0.00 0.04
Emin County 0.00 8.00 26.92 – 52.08 57.78 0.00 0.00 0.12
Shawan City 4.00 16.00 34.62 9.43 54.35 60.47 0.00 0.00 0.14
Toli County 0.00 8.00 23.08 – 52.08 56.52 0.00 0.00 0.00
Yumin County 0.00 4.00 23.08 – 51.02 56.52 0.00 0.00 0.00
Bole City 0.00 4.00 30.77 – 51.02 59.09 0.00 0.00 0.36
Jinghe County 0.00 4.00 23.08 – 51.02 56.52 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wenquan County 0.00 4.00 15.39 – 51.02 54.17 0.00 0.00 0.00
Alashankou City – – 53.85 – – 68.42 – – 3.27

Average 5.85 14.77 35.90 6.20 54.99 62.65 1.50 3.55 2.56

Note: means no data.

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research results (Hall and Pain, 2006; Taylor et al., 2008; Wang et al., 2017). This paper explores the evolutionary process of economic
linkage patterns among the cities and counties on NSEBTM from a network perspective based on a modified gravity model and social
network analysis. It enriches the literature on the city-county economic linkages of NSEBTM, provides a supplement to the research
conducted solely at the city level, and offers support for comparative studies that use various flow data.
However, the economic linkage network constructed by gravity model cannot in essence eliminate the constraints of regional space.
The application of “flow” data in the economic linkage network of cities and counties on NSEBTM should be further explored. In
addition, location condition, industrial upgrading, and government policy support play important roles in economic linkages (Zhong
et al., 2016; Zhang, 2017). The types of spatial economic development relationships among Xinjiang and various provinces are complex
(Liu et al., 2022). This paper focuses on the influence of the comprehensive quality development level of cities and counties on economic
linkages, considering factors such as industrial structure and population size. Due to the limitation of data availability, however, factors
such as location condition and policy support are not covered. Future research on the change of spatial pattern of economic linkage
should consider factors such as location condition, policy support, human capital, and science and technology innovation.

4.2. Conclusions

This paper measures the intensity of economic linkages between cities and counties on NSEBTM in 2000, 2010, and 2020, constructs
a binary matrix on this basis, and uses social network analysis to explore the evolutionary characteristics of the economic linkage
network structure on NSEBTM. The main conclusions are as follows.
In the past 20 years, with the increase of comprehensive quality development level of cities and counties, the total amount of external
economic linkages of cities and counties showed an upward trend, but the gap of the total amount of external economic linkages be-
tween cities and counties continued expanding. The spatial distribution of the comprehensive development quality level of cities and
counties on NSEBTM showed a pattern of “strength in the middle and weakness at both ends” during 2000–2010 and a pattern of “high
value and low value staggered” in 2020. The direction of economic linkages in various cities and counties was relatively stable, with
obvious central orientation and geographical proximity.
From the characteristics of economic linkage network, the number of economic linkage channels of cities and counties on NSEBTM
increased significantly, the economic linkage network changed from loose to dense, and the network structure changed from a single-
core structure dominated by Urumqi City to a multicore structure dominated by Urumqi City, Karamay City, Shihezi City, and Changji
City. Urumqi City, Karamay City, Shihezi City, and Changji City, the cities with strong economic linkages, have strong control and
influence capabilities on the overall network; while Gaochang District, Yizhou District, Kuytun City, Bole City, and Alashankou City have
strong influence on local network, becoming the growth pole and secondary growth pole of NSEBTM and promoting the transformation
of NSEBTM from unbalanced development to balanced development.
In the future, the construction of urban agglomeration on NSEBTM should be accelerated, the orderly agglomeration of population
and production factors in urban agglomeration areas also should be accelerated, and the integration of Urumqi City-Changji City,
Urumqi City-Turpan City, and Kuytun City-Dushanzi District-Usu City should be promoted. Moreover, a modern Urumqi metropolitan
area with Urumqi City as the center should be established to promote the development of Changji City, Wujiaqu City, Fukang City, and
Qitai City, and radiate the development of other cities and counties in Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture, Shihezi City, Karamay City,
Gaochang District, and Yizhou District. For the border cities and counties of NSEBTM, the geographical resource advantages of them
should be gave full play, the spatial layout of industries should be optimized, the population along the border should be gather, the
agglomeration of production factors should be promoted, the endogenous development momentum should be enhanced. Furthermore,
take the Tacheng Key Open Development Pilot Zone, the Bole Border Economic Cooperation Zone, and the Silk Road Economic Belt
Innovation-driven Development Pilot Zone as the engine to build new economic growth poles in the border areas such as Tacheng City,
Bole City, and Hami City, improve the comprehensive development quality of the eastern and western ends, strengthen the intensity of
economic linkages between cities and counties, and promote the coordinated development of regional economy.

Declaration of competing interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to
influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgements

This work was financially supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China (2021xjkk0905).

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