CE 2121: FUNDAMENTALS OF

SURVEYING
Module 1 unit 2: Theory of Probability
Theory of Probability

• Probability is defined as the number of times something will probably

occur over the range of possible occurrences.

• The theory of probability is useful in indicating the precision of results

only in so far as they are affected by accidental errors

• It does not determine the magnitude of systematic errors which may

also be present.
Most Probable Value
Sample Problem no. 1
Residual
Probable Error
Relative Error or Relative Precision
Weighted Observations
Interrelationship of Errors
Sample Problem no. 2

The following values were determined in a series of tape measurements of a line:

423.88 423.93 423.85 423.82
Compute the following:
Most probable value of the measured length
Probable error of a single measurement
Probable error of the mean
Final expression for the measured line
Relative Precision of the measurement
Sample Problem no. 2

Measured Length Residual, v v2

423.88 -0.015 0.000225
423.85 -0.045 0.002025
423.93 0.035 0.001225
423.92 0.025 0.000625
∑ 1695.58 0.0041

= ± 0.0125

= ± 0.0249 Final Expression = 423.895 ± 0.0125 m

Sample Problem no. 2

Measured Length Residual, v v2

423.88 -0.015 0.000225
423.85 -0.045 0.002025
423.93 0.035 0.001225
423.92 0.025 0.000625
∑ 1695.48 0.0041
Sample Problem no. 3
Sample Problem no. 4
Sample Problem no. 5