css exam desk - 2022

FROM THE PEN OF DR.

HASAN ASKARI RIZVI
Pakistan's political scientist & military analyst

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 FROM THE PEN OF DR. HASAN ASKARI RIZVI
1. Can the U.S. Change its Profile in South Asia? (January 30, 2021)
2. Withdrawal of Foreign Troops and Stability in Afghanistan (February 28, 2021)
3. India-Pakistan Relations (April 6, 2021)
4. Peace in Afghanistan After American Withdrawal (April 19, 2021)
5. Who is Responsible for the Sufferings of the Palestinians? (May 18, 2021)
6. The Challenge of Afghanistan (June 20, 2021)
7. Pakistan, Central Asia, America and the Afghan Problem (July 19, 2021)
8. Can Pakistan and the United States Agree on Afghanistan? (August 1, 2021)
9. Why Did the Afghan System Collapse? (August 18, 2021)
10. Pakistan’s Societal Response to the Changes in Afghanistan (August 30, 2021)
11. New Global Security after the Debacle in Afghanistan (September 12, 2021)
12. Afghanistan & the Global Community: In Search of a Stable Relationship (October 11, 2021)
13. Political Impediments to Economic Development (November 30, 2021)
14. Good Economy Through Knowledge and Human Development (January 24, 2022)
15. Russia-Ukraine Conflict and the Way out (February 25, 2022)
16. War and Diplomacy in World Politics (May 13, 2022)
17. Pakistan’s Economic and Social Challenges (July 2, 2022)
18. The Complexities of Pakistan-United States Relations (October 18, 2022)

CAN THE U.S. CHANGE ITS PROFILE IN SOUTH ASIA?
The assumption of United States Presidency by
Joe (Joseph) Biden on January 20, 2021 was
welcomed by all political circles in Pakistan.
Prime Minister Imran Khan sent a message of
congratulation to the New President. Foreign
Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said in a
statement that Pakistan was ready to engage
with the New U.S. Administration for building “a
long term, broad-based and multidimensional
relationship.” The change of leadership in the
United States brings an end to the era of
unpredictability and sudden ups and down in
American policies. This was more so in the
disposition of President Donald Trump. The new
President is expected to work towards
rehabilitation of U.S. relations with its
European allies. President Biden’s initial
decisions have helped to restore the image of
the U.S. at the global level. These decisions
include immediate attention to dealing
effectively with COVID-19 and the administering
of vaccine at a faster pace, , return to Paris-
based environment treaty, stoppage of the
process of American withdrawal from World
Health Organization, and the lifting of
restrictions on the citizens of some Muslim
countries on their travel to the U.S.
Pakistan’s relations with the U.S. have
experienced many changes over the years. Both
sides periodically developed complaints against
each other. However, they have maintained a
working relationship all the time. Its scope
varied over time. The U.S. is Pakistan’s major
trading partner. This relationship has persisted
even when the two countries faced difficulties in
their bilateral relations. The United States
provided economic assistance for various
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human and society development projects. It also
provided financial and technical support for
strengthening state institutions and the
democratic process. The U.S. helped Pakistan to
obtain financial and technical support and loans
from international financial institutions like the
IMF, the World Bank, and Asian Development
Bank. From time to time, Pakistan obtained
military equipment and training facilities for its
military personnel in the U.S. Currently, the
military training program is under suspension. It
is hoped that the military training program for
Pakistani military personnel in the U.S. will soon
be revived,
From Pakistan’s perspective, there are four
major areas of interest in its relations with the
United States. These are Afghanistan, India,
American opposition to China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC), and the troubled
U.S.-Iran relations. Pakistan facilitated the
dialogue between the U.S. government and the
Afghan Taliban, which resulted in a peace
agreement between them on February 29, 2020.
Later, after some delay a dialogue began between
the Kabul government and the Taliban in
September 2020. These talks have not made
much headway because of the hardline attitude
on both sides on the future shape of the political
system in Afghanistan and the continued
violence between the Afghan National Army/ U.S.
forces and the Taliban fighters. Pakistan has
talked about the need of ceasefire and political
accommodation with the two Taliban delegation
that visited Pakistan since the resumption of the
talks between the Taliban and the Kabul
Government. The Taliban have asked for
assurance from the Kabul government for

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02
agreeing to some changes in the Afghan
Constitution to their satisfaction. The mood of
the Kabul leadership appears non-
accommodating on the demand for
restructuring of power arrangements in
Afghanistan. This brings in the role of the U.S.
to advice the Kabul government for showing
flexibility for political settlement with the
Taliban. The new U.S. Administration cannot
reverse the current policy of bringing back its
troops. However, this policy cannot materialize
unless there is peace and stability in
Afghanistan. It is in this regard that the U.S.
need to update its policy.
While supporting the peace process in
Afghanistan, Pakistan wants the U.S. to use its
diplomatic clout to advice the Kabul government
for not allowing its territory to be used against
Pakistan by Pakistani Taliban based there and
Indian security agencies. So far, the U.S. has
not been helpful to Pakistan in this respect.
Pakistan supports American troops withdrawal
from Afghanistan but not without some
understanding between the Kabul government
and the Afghan Taliban on internal political
arrangement in that country. The India issue is
expected to cause some difficulties in Pakistan-
U.S. relation. The U.S. views India as a strategic
partner in its anti-China policy and regards
India as a helpful factor in its Asia-Pacific policy.
The U.S. has signed a security consultative
arrangement with India, Australia and Japan to
counter China’s influence in the region.
Pakistan’s perspective is that the growing
relations between India and the United States
since 2005 have turned India arrogant in its
relations with Pakistan. This arrogance of being
a close ally of a super-power has become more
pronounced since May 2014, when Narendra
Modi became India’s Prime Minister. The Modi
government suspended India-Pakistan dialogue
in August 2014 and since then there has been
no dialogue between Pakistan and India on the
contentious bilateral level. Their relations have
plunged to the minimum. India’s decision in
August 2019 to integrate Indian-administered
Kashmir in India has added a dangerous
dimension to their relations. The Trump
Administration’s major interest in South Asia
WITHDRAWAL OF FOREIGN TROOPS & STABILITY IN AFGHANISTAN
Afghanistan is the latest example of how it is
easy for powerful states to militarily intervene in
a weak country like Afghanistan, but they
always find it difficult to withdraw from such a
country. Their intervention intensifies internal
divisions in the intervened country, making it
problematic to create viable internal
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was the avoidance of a full war between India
and Pakistan. It paid no attention to violence on
the Line of Control in Kashmir, India’s violence
against Kashmiris in Indian-administered
Kashmir, and the diplomatic stalemate between
the two countries. The U.S. did not encourage
India to resume talks with Pakistan on the
contentious issue because it did not want to
make the Mode government unhappy. Pakistan
will be disappointed if the Biden Administration
continues with the Trump policy of a heavy tilt
towards India and letting India to apply military
pressure on Pakistan by limited military activity
on the Line of Control. The Trump
Administration joined hands with India in
opposing the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
as a part of its anti-China policy. The new U.S.
Administration is expected to pursue a policy of
cautious opposition to China which might
change the Trump policy of applying diplomatic
pressure on Pakistan on the CPEC issue. The
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CPEC is a transnational economic connectivity
project which will give boost to Pakistan’s socio-
economic development. The U.S. should not
expect Pakistan to fit into its policy of keeping
China under economic and military pressure.
Pakistan’s pro-China policies would continue no
matter if the Biden Administration opposed to
the CPEC.
Pakistan will welcome if the new U.S.
administration joins the European States to
stabilize its relations with Iran. The 2015 Iran-
U.S.-European States nuclear deal can be
revived if the U.S. decides to rejoin the European
states on this issue and graduall6y reduce
sanctions against Iran. Pakistan will be happy
with such change as this would reduce tension
in the Gulf region. This will also enable Pakistan
to pursue a more active relationship with Iran
and return to the Iran-Pakistan Gas pipeline
project. The new U.S. administration is expected
to review its foreign policy in the next two
months and only then we would know if the
Biden government will fine-tune America’s profile
in South Asia. It needs to pay attention to
Pakistan’s concerns about India and Afghanistan
for improving the prospects of peace and stability
in and around Pakistan.
arrangements for peace and stability. Now-a-
days, the United States and the NATO are faced
with the dilemma of how to withdraw from
Afghanistan in a manner that there is a stable
and widely supported government in Kabul and
their security interests are secured. There is
hardly any one group within Afghanistan that
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can provide such assurance on these issues to
the U.S. and the NATO. The meeting of the
defense ministers of the NATO countries, held
on February 17-18, 2021, did not make any
decision for an early withdrawal of NATO
military support mission from Afghanistan
which comprises about 9600 persons. In
addition to this, the United States has about
2500 combat troops in Afghanistan. The NATO
leaders deliberated on two inter-related issues,
NATO’s withdrawal from Afghanistan and
greater cooperation with the new U.S.
Administration on peace and withdrawal related
issues in Afghanistan. The American Trump
Administration had given May 1, 2021, as the
deadline for withdrawal of American combat
troops from Afghanistan. The new Biden
Administration is reviewing the Afghan situation
and it appears that the withdrawal of American
and NATO troops will be delayed mainly
because of the growing violence inside
Afghanistan and the inconclusive talks between
the Taliban and the Kabul government. The
NATO countries would wait for American
decision on troops withdrawal.
Though the U.S. and the NATO want to
withdraw their combat troops from Afghanistan,
but what holds them back is increased violence
and political uncertainty inside Afghanistan
They do want Afghanistan to slide back into a
sanctuary for terrorist groups like Al-Qaida,
Daish and Taliban after the withdrawal of
American and NATO troops. Therefore, they
want to be sure about the security situation in
Afghanistan in the post-withdrawal period.
The U.S. and the NATO countries want two
major things to happen in Afghanistan before
they quit Afghanistan. First, a peace agreement
between the Taliban and the Afghan
government whereby both agree to power
sharing in Kabul. If the power-sharing
agreement is signed and it works smoothly, the
NATO and the U.S. are expected to withdraw
their combat troops. Second, even after the
withdrawal of troops, the U.S and NATO
countries want arrangements with Kabul
government for continuing with the current
policy of providing economic assistance. They
also maintain a limited cooperation in security
affairs. This could mean training facilities for
Afghan military, supply of weapon, and
presence of a small military advisory group in
Afghanistan. The present Ashraf Ghani
government in Kabul is likely to agree to such a
relationship with the U.S. However, if the
Taliban join the broadly-based government in
Kabul after the peace agreement, it is not clear
if the Taliban would agree to a limited American
military presence in Afghanistan. However, they
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would welcome the continuation of economic
support and working relations with the U.S.
The implementation of the Taliban-U.S. Peace
Agreement on February 29, 2020 over the last
one year does not create the hope for an early
peace and stability in Afghanistan. The follow up
of the Doha Agreement was slow. For example,
the release of Taliban prisoners by the Kabul
government, as committed in the peace
agreement, could not take place on schedule
which delayed the start of the talks between the
Taliban and the Kabul government. The talks
between the Kabul government and the Taliban
began in Doha in September 2020, but these
have moved very slowly because of mutual
distrust of the two sides. On December 2, the
Taliban and the Kabul government signed an
agreement titled, “the Way Forward Agreement”
which provided a framework for their dialogue.
This was followed by brief talks in the first week
of January 2021. Earlier in 2020, there were
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significant visits to Pakistan pertaining to peace
in Afghanistan. The U.S. Special Representative
on Afghanistan Reconciliation, Dr. Zalmay
Khalilzad, visited Pakistan twice. The Taliban
leadership came to Islamabad twice. Several
delegations from Afghanistan visited Pakistan.
That also included the first official visit of Dr.
Abdullah Abdullah. Prime Minister Imran Khan
undertook his first visit to Kabul in November.
These developments did not produce any
significant improvement in the prospects of
political settlement between the Taliban and the
Kabul government. There are people on both
sides who do not favor a political settlement.
This problem is more acute in the Kabul
government where a good number of people do
not want to accommodate the Taliban demand
for restructuring the governmental system. Some
of them fear a loss of political power if the
Taliban and the Kabul leadership decide to
create a broadly based government.
The Taliban have intensified violence against the
Kabul government and its loyalists. Suicide
bombing, roadside bombing and clashes between
the Taliban and the Afghan military have become
common. The U.S. troops often help the Afghan
Army’s operations against the Taliban. The delay
in peace agreement in Afghanistan has increased
American pressure on Pakistan for convincing
the Taliban leadership for ceasefire in
Afghanistan and a peace agreement with the
Kabul. Pakistan’s influence over the Taliban
leadership has declined after they moved to
Doha, Qatar. The Taliban leaders still listen to
Pakistani leadership but do not necessarily act
on the advice Pakistan is supportive of political
settlement between the Kabul and the Taliban
and the setting up of a broadly based
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government in Kabul that includes the Taliban.
This cannot happen unless the Kabul
government leaders and the Taliban leaders
accommodate each other. All this means that
the deadline for withdrawal of American troops
is likely to be extended. Pakistan also wants
American and NATO troops to withdraw only
after the signing of the Afghan-Taliban peace
agreement and the setting up of broadly based
government in Kabul. Pakistan is concerned
about the increased internal turmoil in
Afghanistan because the Afghanistan violence
can spillover into Pakistan; more Afghan
refugees can come to Pakistan. Further,
internal disorder in Afghanistan makes it easy
for Pakistani Taliban and their allies to continue
using Afghan territory for resorting to terrorism
INDIA- PAKISTAN RELATIONS
We are so used to problems and difficulties in
Pakistan-India relations that any sign of
improvement is viewed as a doubtful
development. We often say that a positive
statement by the leader of one country about
the other may be a propaganda statement or
that such a statement is to satisfy some major
global power. Such a skepticism is
understandable because the long periods of
troubled relations have overshadowed the brief
periods of smooth interaction between India and
Pakistan. The troubled relations between India
and Pakistan are linked with their divergent
interpretation of history, notion of the nation-
state and the national identity and conflicting
views on regional and global affairs.
Consequently, peaceful and normal relations
proved short-lived. Nevertheless, attempts have
been made time and again to reduce tension in
their relations and lay the foundation of a
peaceful discourse. There are indications in the
month of March 2021 that India and Pakistan
want to take some steps to reduce tension in
their bilateral relations. If these new trends
sustain for some time, it is quite possible that
they resume the dialogue on the contentious
issues that was suspended by India in August
2014. Narendra Modi became India’s Prime
Minister for the first time in the last week of
May 2014. Though Pakistan’s Prime Minister
Nawaz Sharif went to Delhi to take part in his
oath taking ceremony but, less than three
months later, the Modi government suspended
the dialogue process with Pakistan. India-
Pakistan relations deteriorated in the
subsequent years because the Modi government
worked in close collaboration with the hardline
Hindu groups, especially the RSS and its allied
groups that make no secret of their contempt
for the Muslims and animosity towards
Pakistan.
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inside Pakistan. It also enables India to provide
logistical support and funding to such anti-
Pakistan groups. Therefore, Pakistan is keen for
an internal political settlement in Afghanistan
and the establishment of a government in Kabul
that enjoys the support of most, if not all,
competing political and military interests in
Afghanistan. However, at this stage, such an
ideal situation in Afghanistan appears far-
fetched. One solution is that the states bordering
Afghanistan and the major powers should jointly
convince the Kabul government and the Taliban
to agree to internal peace and broadly based
government and that such an internal
arrangement in Afghanistan will be supported by
them.
India-Pakistan bilateral relations took another
downward slide, when on August 5, 2019, the
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Modi government integrated fully Kashmir into
Indian Union by abolishing Article 370 of the
Indian Constitution and allowed the people from
outside Kashmir to settle down there and buy
property there like a resident of Kashmir. The
status of Kashmir was reduced from a “State” to
two “Union Territories”. This was the first
instance in India’s constitutional history that a
“state” was pushed back to a lower status of
Union Territory. Pakistan rejected these
measures and protested strongly at the
diplomatic level. Both downgraded their
diplomatic relations by calling back their High
Commissioners. Meanwhile, violence across the
Line of Control intensified and the two armies
and their allied paramilitary forces exchanged
fire every other day after Modi suspended the
dialogue with Pakistan. In November 2003,
India and Pakistan had agreed through verbal
commitment to observe ceasefire on the Line of
Control. This “understanding” ensured an over-
all peace on the Line of Control until November-
December 2012, when violent incidents began to
take place. Their frequency increased in 2013
which became a regular feature after India’s
Prime Minister Modi suspended the India-
Pakistan dialogue in August 2014.
Since then, the two security forces used to
exchange fire every other day on the Line of
Control in Kashmir. In such a troubled
diplomatic environment, it was surprising that
some gestures for reducing tension between the
two countries were adopted in March 2021.
These included: (1) Telephonic interaction
between the Director General, Military
Operations of India and Pakistan and they
agreed to observe the ceasefire on the Line of
Control. This was the revival of the Ceasefire
05
agreed to between them in November 2003. The
situation has become peaceful on the Line of
Control after the latest understanding between
the Director General of Military Operations. (2)
While addressing the National Security Dialogue
in Islamabad in mid-March, Prime Minister
Imran Khan talked of the need of improved
relations between the two countries. (3)
Pakistan’s Army Chief, while addressing the
same National Security Dialogue in Islamabad
repeated Imran khan’s call for peaceful and
stable relations with India. (4) India’s Prime
Minister sent a “get well” message to Imran
Khan as his Corona test came positive. He also
sent greetings on the Pakistan Day on March 23.
(5) Pakistan’s Indus Waters delegation visited
Delhi for talks with the Indian counterpart on
March 23-24. They agreed to meet again later in
the year. (6) The flag meetings of the Brigade
Commanders of India and Pakistan on the
Poonch border in Kashmir on March 26.
All this engenders the hope that tension would
ease between the two countries which might set
the stage for the resumption of the dialogue on
the long-standing contentious issues. However,
this does not mean that they would resolve all
bilateral problems, including the Kashmir
Problem. From Pakistan’s point-of-view, two
issues are assigned a priority: Peace and
stability on the Line of Control; and
improvement of human rights situation in
Indian-administered Kashmir where India’s
security personnel and civilian authorities
engage in excessive use of force against
Kashmiris. Other issues that need immediate
attention include the exchange of prisoners,
visits by divided families, suspension of
propaganda against. each other, and the return
of the High Commissioners to their respective
positions. If India and Pakistan can make
progress on these issues, they may be able to
revive the dialogue on the contentious and
complex problems, including the future of
Kashmir and terrorism in South Asia. Both
countries face serious problems when it comes
to addressing the complex disputes between
PEACE IN AFGHANISTAN AFTER AMERICAN WITHDRAWAL
Afghanistan has been experiencing internal war
of one kind or another since 1979. The peace
agreement between the Afghan Taliban and the
U.S. Administration on February 29, 2020
engendered the hope that enduring peace might
be established in Afghanistan. This feeling
strengthened as the Kabul government and the
Afghan Taliban opened negotiations in
September 2020 for an internal political
settlement. By now, the hope for a long-term
peace in Afghanistan has started fading out as
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them. In both countries, there active groups and
individuals that are opposed to normal and
functioning relations with each other. They build
pressure on their respective governments to stay
at a distance from the other country. The Modi
government cannot afford to discard its deep
relationship with hardline Hindu groups that are
opposed to normalization of relations with
Pakistan except on their terms. Similarly, several
groups in Pakistan strongly feel that no relation
with India is possible until the Kashmir issue is
settled to their satisfaction.
Keeping in view the domestic pressures, the two
governments should first address the situation
on the Line of Kashmir, improve the human
rights situation in Kashmir and take the above-
mentioned steps to humanize their bilateral
relations. This can be followed by taking up the
difficult bilateral issues.
Pakistan and India need two types of dialogues
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to improve their relations. First, a dialogue
within each state. Second, a dialogue between
the two states. The dialogue within each state
should be among different domestic interest
groups to create a consensus on the nature of
relations with the other state. Internal support
has to be built for good relations with the other
state. The second dialogue should be between
India and Pakistan with the objective of finding
acceptable and working solutions of the
problems between the two states. A dialogue on
the pattern of the dialogue in 2004-2007
between India and Pakistan can be pursued.
Pakistan needs to work for evolving a mutually
acceptable solution of the Kashmir Problem that
is also acceptable to Kashmiris. If the
international community does not support
Pakistani demand for reversing India’s decision
of August 5, 2019 on Kashmir, it does not
endorse India’s official position that Kashmir is
its integral part. If Pakistan and India can evolve
some solution of the Kashmir problem, the
international community will help to implement
such a solution. The international community
will not on its own force a solution of Kashmir on
India or on Pakistan.
the Taliban and the Kabul government have
adopted tough positions on the terms of political
settlement. While the efforts are being made by
Russia, China, Pakistan, and Turkey to soften
the policy stand of the Taliban and the Kabul
government, the new U.S. policy on Afghanistan
does not have any incentive for the Kabul
government and the Taliban to soften their
positions. The U.S Administration has
announced that the deadline for the withdrawal
of American troops from Afghanistan has been
06
extended from May 1, 2021, as given by the
Trump Administration, to September 11, 2021.
This is said to be the final date for withdrawal of
American troops and the U.S. expects that
NATO would also pull out its troops by that date.
The U.S. has not put any condition for the
withdrawal of its troops. This means that even if
there is no agreement between the Kabul
government and the Afghan Taliban, U.S. troops
would be withdrawn. The talks between the
Kabul government and the Afghan Taliban are
close to a stalemate because both have not
shown enough flexibility for any political
settlement. Two issues have caused this
problem. The Taliban do not agree a ceasefire
and stoppage of their attacks on Afghan
government installations, Afghan citizens and
security personnel of the Afghan government.
The Kabul government does not agree to the
installation of an interim government in Kabul.
The Kabul government wants new elections to
be held under its administration for the
selection of the interim government. This
proposal is not acceptable to the Taliban
because most of them do not believe in elections.
Further, the current voters registration and
listing does not cover the areas that are under
the control of the Taliban. Most Taliban areas
have a limited knowledge, if any, of the how the
election system works. Therefore, the holding of
elections under the present Ashraf Ghani
government gives a clear advantage to the
current rulers. The Taliban want Ghani and his
close associates to be replaced by mutually
acceptable leadership for the interim period.
Two international conferences have been held in
Moscow in mid-March and the Heart of Asia—
Istanbul Process Conference at Dushanbe,
Tajikistan on March 29-30 to encourage the
dialogue process for internal peace and stability
in Afghanistan. The Taliban participated in the
Moscow conference. In both conferences the
leaders underlined the need of building internal
peace in Afghanistan and a long-term political
settlement. If there is no agreement between
the Kabul government and the Taliban for
shared governance and internal peace,
Afghanistan is likely to plunge into another
phase of intense civil strife, which will have
negative implications for the neighboring states,
especially Pakistan. Pakistan is endeavoring to
convince the Taliban leaders on the need of an
internal peace agreement in Afghanistan.
However, Pakistan’ s clout with the Taliban has
declined since they got a safe place of Doha to
conduct their political affairs. They are no
longer exclusively dependent on Pakistan for
such facilities. The U.S. government is reluctant
to recognize this reality about Pakistan’s role
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and it continues to doubt Pakistan’ s
genuineness for building pressures on the
Taliban. America is being persuaded in this line
of thinking about Pakistan by the Kabul
government and India who argue with the U.S.
that Pakistan continues to extend discreet
support to the Taliban. Since this argument
helps the U.S. to hide its failure in Afghanistan,
it asks Pakistan to “do more” for managing the
Afghan Taliban. Recently, the U.S. Secretary of
States talked to Pakistan’s Army Chief on phone.
Later, the senior most American diplomat in
Islamabad called on the Army Chief. Both talked
about the emerging situation in Afghanistan. If
internal war in Afghanistan escalates after
September, Pakistan is expected to get more
refugees from Afghanistan who will enter
Pakistan to save them from the internal war and
destruction. The sustained internal strife in
Afghanistan will evoke support for the Taliban
among the Taliban sympathizers in Pakistan.
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The only reassuring factor is that Pakistan has
built a strong fence on the Pakistan-Afghanistan
border which makes unauthorized border
crossings a difficult affair both for refugees and
Taliban sympathizers.
As the Afghan government faces difficulties in
resisting the Taliban military onslaught in the
post-September period, it will use Pakistan as an
escape-goat by claiming that Pakistan is helping
them. This point of view will get the endorsement
of India for its own reasons. The U.S. that always
maintains reservations on Pakistan’s
Afghanistan policy, will buy the Afghan
government and India’s explanation of the
Taliban activities in Afghanistan. Pakistan will
again be under a criticism barrage by the official
and semi-official American circles. Pakistan
should pursue diplomacy on the Afghan issue in
close cooperation with China, Russia and Turkey.
Qatar can also be included in this diplomatic
circuit. A joint approach will enable Pakistan to
withstand pressure that Afghanistan, India and
the U.S. would mount on Pakistan.
The U.S. and NATO members provide financial
assistance to Kabul for maintaining their
security system and administration. Afghanistan
will need such financial support in the post-
withdrawal period. Therefore, the U.S. and the
NATO countries should use this diplomatic clout
to convince the Kabul government that a mid-
way and accommodative approach stands better
chances than fighting with the Taliban. India
cannot contribute anything significant to peace
in Afghanistan in the post-September period. It
has no access to the Taliban who do not seem to
be inclined to work with India. India’s policy is to
support the Kabul government and it is expected
07
to continue advising the Kabul government to
play tough with the Taliban and those countries
that talk of accommodation with the Taliban.
India is expected to undermine the prospects of
stable peace in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s
diplomatic skills will soon face a new test on
WHO IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SUFFERINGS OF THE PALESTINIANS?
The Palestinian issue is back in news as Israel,
once again, launched a major military operation
against the civilian population of the Gaza Area.
Israel resorts to violent military action against
Gaza after every few years. At times, military
action is also undertaken against the
Palestinian of the West Bank Area. The United
States and other western countries stay quiet
and let Israel use military force against the
Gaza Area for few days and then they work
towards arranging a cease fire between the two
sides. There is no regret on their part on the
losses suffered by the Palestinians nor they
make any effort to solve the Palestinian problem.
This year the violence erupted when, in the last
week of Ramzan, Israel’s security forces
engaged in evicting the Arabs from East
Jerusalem for accommodating Jews there.
There were violent clashes between Israeli
security and the Palestinians that had gathered
for the prayers of the last Friday of Ramzan at
the Al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem. This set-in
motion the old pattern of conflict in which Israel
used excessive force. There were clashes
between the Jews backed by Israel security
forces and Palestinians in East Jerusalem. This
was followed by eruption of violence between
the Palestinians of Gaza and the Israeli military.
The Palestinians in Gaza have old fashioned
rockets which they fired into Israel. Though
Israel has a missile protection shield for Israeli
territory, some missiles from Gaza succeed in
penetrating the Shield. In the first week of
violence eight Israelis were killed by these
missiles. Right from the first day Israel used its
air force, especially its sophisticated missiles, to
target government installations, civilian
property and water and electricity resources in
Gaza. In the first week of violence over 140
Palestinians were killed by Israeli air raids in
Gaza. How do you explain the ability of Israel to
get away with its aggressive and violent policies
against the Palestinian and how it refuses to
abide by the UN Security Council and General
Assembly resolutions? At one time the two-state
solution was viewed at the international level as
a credible option for resolving the Palestinian
problem. Now, the prospects of such a solution
have been reduced to almost zero. Neither Israel
nor the U.S. are serious about it beyond making
statements from time to time. Israel has
virtually taken over parts of West Bank for
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Afghanistan. It needs to work on this issue with
the cooperation of China, Russia, Turkey and
Qatar. The U.S. cannot ensure peace and
stability in Afghanistan by nudging Pakistan to
do more. It should work with Pakistan and other
countries for peace in Afghanistan.
settling Jews there. Consequently, the West
Bank is no longer an integrated territorial entity.
If you look at the map of the Gulf region and the
Middle East, including Pakistan and Afghanistan
and Central Asia as well as the Arabic Speaking
Muslim states of Africa, Israel appears to be a
small dot surrounded by these Muslim states.
However, in terms of military power and science
and technology, Israel is more powerful than
these Islamic states at the operational level. It
also enjoys full support of the United States and
Western European states. The unified and
single-minded approach of Israel and its allies
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backed by knowledge and technology makes it
possible for Israel to pursue aggressive and
violent policy towards the Palestinians. On the
other hand, the Arab and Muslim states are
divided on the Israel-Palestine issue and lack a
unified and determined approach beyond making
speeches and issuing statements. At the
operational level, the Muslims, including the
Palestinians, lack unity of command and
direction on the Palestinian issue. The
Palestinians have been divided into two groups
since 2007 in their approach towards Israel. The
Al-Fateh organization controls West Bank area
which is recognized as the Palestinian
government. It has now adopted the policy of
moderation for settling the problems with Israel,
but it stands for an independent Palestinian
state. The Gaza area is controlled by the Hamas
organization which pursues a radical and
confrontational approach towards Israel. The
Gaza area and West Bank area have no
territorial link. They are separated by Israeli
territory. Israel also controls land and sea routes
of Gaza from three sides. On one side there is a
territorial link of Gaza with Egypt, which is
closed by Egypt from time to time. At times,
Palestinian use secret underground routes to
smuggle food and weapons from Egypt. Gaza’s
dependence on Israel for getting supplies and
travel to West Bank is a serious handicap for the
Palestinians. Various attempts were made to
bring together the Hamas and the Al-Fateh on a
shared agenda, but their differences persist. The
differences between weaken the Palestinians and
both face internal economic and administrative
problems.
The Arab world is divided on how to deal with
Israel. Egypt was the first Arab country to opt for
08
peace with Israel in 1978-79, followed by
Jordan. Recently, the UAE and Bahrain and
Sudan have normalized their relations with
Israel. Saudi Arabia does not support the policy
or confrontation with Israel, although it stands
for a Palestinian State. Iran supports the
Hamas and the Hezbollah (Lebanon) movement
for a hardline approach towards Israel. As a
result, the Arab states cannot pool their
resources and policies to back up the
Palestinians with as much determination as the
U.S. backs Israel. The Arab states are more
categorical in issuing statements in favour of
the Palestinians, but they differ on how to
THE CHALLENGE OF AFGHANISTAN
The United States has started the last phase of
the withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan
on May 1. It is likely to be completed by July 4,
American Independence Day. This unilateral
withdrawal without paying serious attention to
what happens in the post-withdrawal
Afghanistan has caused much concern in
Afghanistan and the neighbouring states. The
Kabul government of President Ashraf Ghani is
confident that it would continue to rule
Afghanistan and that it has enough military and
organizational potential to cope with the Afghan
challenge. Such an optimistic view is not shared
by most Afghan watchers who think that
Afghanistan will plunge into an intense internal
strife. The Kabul government and the Afghan
Taliban have not been able to evolve an agreed
framework of politics and power sharing in the
post-withdrawal period. The Kabul government
wants the Taliban to accept the current power
structure in Kabul presided over by President
Ashraf Ghani and participate in the elections to
seek power. The Taliban are not willing to work
with Ashraf Ghani. They want a mutually
acceptable government in Kabul under what
they describe as the Islamic Constitution. This
means that the Taliban want to make some
changes in the existing constitutional
arrangements in Kabul. Further, the last two
presidential elections produced controversies
and Ashraf Ghani and Dr. Abdulah Abdulah
agreed to work together because American
helped them to patch up their differences. Now,
given the mutual distrust between the Taliban
and the Afghan government, a midcourse may
not easily available. Pakistan, Russia and China
have advised mutual accommodation to both
the Kabul government and the Afghan Taliban.
Turkey shares this perspective. Turkey had
planned a conference on Afghanistan, but the
Taliban refused to participate. The planned
conference had to be postponed. However, the
foreign ministers of Turkey, Pakistan and
Afghanistan met in the last week of April in
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achieve this goal and how to deal with Israel. The
Gulf states that recognized Israel some months
ago appear helpless in moderating the brutal
policies of Israel. The Arab states are also unable
and unwilling to challenge American and western
economic interest in the Middle East on the
question of equitable and just settlement of the
Palestinians questions. The Hamas and the
Hezbollah can keep the Palestinian issue alive by
their struggle, but the chances of their success
are undermined mainly because of the
differences in the Arab world on the strategy to
deal with Israel.
Turkey and underlined the need of evolving an
internal peace agreement in Afghanistan.
Internal violence in Afghanistan is on the rise.
This is expected to escalate after the withdrawal
of American troops from there. The fear of
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internal strife in Afghanistan has led the United
States to seek an airbase as a CIA monitoring
station to cover the Afghanistan situation. The
U.S. also intends to use such a facility for
stationing its drone aircraft. The U.S. is talking
on this issue with Pakistan and other states
sharing borders with Afghanistan. These
Afghanistan related developments have created
difficult diplomatic situation for Pakistan. Given
Pakistan’s bitter experience of direct involvement
in Afghanistan’s internal situation in the past,
Pakistan wants to avoid any direct involvement
in the clash between the Taliban and the Kabul
government. It has been advising the Taliban for
seeking some political settlement with the Kabul
government. This effort is not likely to succeed
because the Kabul government is not yet willing
to work toward midway solution between their
demands and the demands of the Taliban about
the future internal political arrangements in
Afghanistan.
On the one hand, the Kabul government seeks
Pakistan’s cooperation for a settlement with the
Taliban. On the other hand, the Kabul
government accuses Pakistan of helping the
Taliban and that the Taliban have training bases
in Pakistan. The Kabul government wants
Pakistan to deliver the Afghan Taliban to it on its
terms for the future political arrangements in
Afghanistan. As this is beyond Pakistan’s
political capacity, the Kabul government is
expected to start a new propaganda against
Pakistan after the withdrawal of American troops
from Afghanistan that Pakistan is helping the
Afghan Taliban. The U.S. does not restrain the
Kabul government from propaganda against
Pakistan. However, the U.S. avoids direct
criticism of Pakistan now-a-days because it
09
wants a communication facility in Pakistan.
However, if it does not get a communication
facility in Pakistan it can also become critical of
Pakistan. Pakistan had a bitter experience of
direct involvement in the Afghan conflict, going
back to the days of Soviet military intervention
in Afghanistan. Though the military
governments of Zia-ul Haq and Pervez
Musharraf made some immediate political and
financial gains, Pakistan had to pay a high price
in the long run both in domestic and external
contexts. Pakistan faced American neglect or
criticism or both when the initial objectives of
the U.S. were met in Afghanistan both in 1979-
89 and the post September 2001 situation. This
strengthened extremist forces in Pakistan and
the Pakistan Army and other security forces
had to fight a major war in the Tribal areas in
2014-2018 to control the violent groups. Some
security operations were conducted in mainland
Pakistan. Pakistan’s current worry is that if
internal strife escalates in Afghanistan, that
country could become a hideout for extremist
groups of various types, i.e., Afghan Taliban,
Daish (the Islamic State) and Al-Qaida. The
Pakistani Taliban and their allies are already
based in Afghanistan. These groups can be
more active in targeting Pakistan. The terrorist
activity in North Waziristan and parts of
Balochistan has already increased. This
problem can intensify if Afghanistan’s internal
situation deteriorates.
PAKISTAN, CENTRAL ASIA, AMERICA AND THE AFGHAN PROBLEM
The visit of Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran
Khan to Tashkent, Uzbekistan, on July 15-16
showed that Pakistan and Central Asian states
like Uzbekistan and Tajikistan share similar
concern about the intensifying internal war in
Afghanistan. Like Pakistan, Uzbekistan and
Tajikistan are worried about the negative fallout
of the internal conflict on their territories.
Already, Tajikistan has received some refugees
from Afghanistan. The four neighboring states
of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Iran and Pakistan are
expected to receive Afghan refugees if the
present-day conflict in Afghanistan escalates.
Turkmenistan can also get some Afghan
refugees, but the chances are that Pakistan and
Iran are likely to get most refugees. This was
what happened in the past. This time, the
pressure of Afghan refugees will also be on
Central Asian States as the Afghan Taliban have
captured the areas border Tajikistan and
Uzbekistan.
Pakistan needs to confine the new Afghan
refugees to certain areas rather than allowing
them to go anywhere in Pakistan, as was done
in the past. However, the implementation of this
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Pakistan faces the dangers of two types. First, if
the Afghan Taliban get an upper hand in
Afghanistan, their sympathizers in Pakistan will
become active and they would like to join the
Afghan Taliban in their effort to control the
whole of Afghanistan. This will create strong
security challenges for Pakistan. Second, if
Afghanistan’s internal situation deteriorates
Pakistan may get more refugees from there.
Already about two million registered and
unregistered Afghans are living in Pakistan.
There are additional risks if the U.S. gets the
permission to maintain some military and
intelligence facility in Pakistan. It will have
adverse impact on Pakistan’s relations with
China, which will be uncomfortable with such a
decision. China will not be able to delink
American military presence in Pakistan with the
on-going U.S. efforts to contain China in the Asia
Pacific region, especially the U.S. arrangement
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with India, Australia, and Japan to contain
China. Pakistan’s efforts to improve relations
with Russia are likely to be impacted by this.
The political consensus in Pakistan is that the
government of Pakistan should help the
prospects of political settlement in Afghanistan
in cooperation with Russia, China and Turkey.
However, it should not return to the old policy of
direct involvement in Afghanistan’s internal
situation on its own or on behalf of any major
power.
policy will be difficult for Pakistan. Some Afghan
refugees have their relatives living in Pakistan as
Pakistani citizens. Some of their friends and
relatives are here as refugees. The new arrivals
would like to go to their relations in Pakistan or
join their refugees friends living in Karachi or
elsewhere in Pakistan. Therefore, confining the
new refugees to refugees camps near the
Pakistan-Afghanistan border would be a
challenging task. Another problem that Pakistan
is expected to face is that as the Kabul
government faces difficulties in coping with the
Afghan Taliban challenge, it would start blaming
Pakistan for its problems. Already the Kabul
government has started propaganda against
Pakistan that Pakistan is aiding the Afghan
Taliban in their military drive against the Kabul
government. They have not provided any
evidence in this respect but President Ashraf
Ghani and some of his senior colleagues are now
using this old strategy of covering up their
failure by accusing Pakistan of creating trouble
in Afghanistan. So far, the U.S. is maintaining a
moderate disposition towards Pakistan. However,
if the Afghan Taliban pressures mounts on the
Kabul government and they reach close to Kabul,
10
the U.S. may resort to remote controlled
military action in Afghanistan. The United
States will need Pakistan’s cooperation to
pursue such a strategy. It will need overfly
facilities from Pakistan for its aircraft/drones or
an airport facility, preferably in Balochistan,
close to Afghan border, for emergency use or for
flying drone aircraft into Afghanistan for
attacking Afghan Taliban positions. If Pakistan
extends such a facility Pakistan would be
viewed as an American ally in Afghanistan’s
internal war. In early June the CIA director,
Willian Burns, visited Pakistan but Pakistan
was not inclined to make any commitment.
There are two alternatives for the U.S. These are
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. In the past
Tajikistan allowed American aircraft to refuel at
one airbase near Dushanbe. American aircraft
also used an airbase in Uzbekistan from 2001
to 2005. However, these facilities are no longer
available. Russia will oppose the grant of any
such facility to the U.S. by Tajikistan and
Uzbekistan. If the U.S. uses Oman or any other
Gulf country as the base for Drone aircraft,
these will have to fly long distance to reach their
targets in Afghanistan. Further, these drones
will have to fly over Iran or Pakistan to enter
Afghanistan. Prime Minister Imran Khan has
said that Pakistan would not make any
Pakistani airport available to the U.S. for
military activity in Afghanistan. However, if the
situation in Afghanistan deteriorates, the U.S.
may apply diplomatic and economic pressure on
Pakistan to grant overfly rights for U.S.
aircraft/drone or give them some airport facility
close to Afghan border. Pakistan needs to be
prepared to deal with such a situation. This
could also be coupled with a massive
propaganda campaign against Pakistan by the
U.S. and Afghanistan, backed by India.
Pakistan has so far maintained a nonpartisan
approach towards the internal conflict in
Afghanistan. It encouraged the Taliban to have
talks with the United States and later with the
Kabul government. However, the Kabul
government and the U.S. should not expect
Pakistan to force the Taliban to accept the
terms and conditions of the Kabul government
for peace in Afghanistan. Pakistan has a limited
CAN PAKISTAN AND THE UNITED STATES AGREE ON AFGHANISTAN?
Pakistan’s two senior officials, Adviser on
National Security and Director General of the
ISI, are on separate visits to the United States.
This is for the first time since the advent of the
Biden Administration in the U.S. that such a
high-level national security visits from Pakistan
have taken place. Earlier, a limited contact took
place among the high officials of the two
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influence over Taliban. It cannot dictate any
terms to them, especially at a time when
Americans and the NATO have withdrawn their
troops and the Afghan Taliban sensing victory for
them. At such a stage, a genuinely middle way
approach can help to improve the situation.
The Afghan Taliban have put three clear
demands during the recent Doha talks between
them and the Kabul government. However, the
Kabul government is not willing to make a clear-
cut offer for political settlement. It wants the
Afghan Taliban to join the current Kabul
constitutional and administrative arrangements.
The Taliban are not going to accept the current
power structure in Kabul, they want some key
persons and policies changed.
Pakistan is supportive of peace and stability in
Afghanistan because Pakistan has learnt from
the past that a policy of partisanship in
Afghanistan does not help. Peace and stability in
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Afghanistan is in Pakistan’s interest because it
would help inter-region economic cooperation
between Central Asia, Pakistan, South Asia. The
states of Central Asia will have easy access to
Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean. However,
Pakistan cannot be intimidated by propaganda
to support the faltering Kabul government. The
Afghan propaganda against Pakistan helps those
hardline religious elements in Pakistan that
argue that Pakistan should support the Afghan
Taliban because it is being blamed for this even
when it is not supporting them. Further, it
should also be kept in mind that over 2.5 million
registered and unregistered refugees are living in
Pakistan. Not all of them support the Kabul
government. Most of them want peace in
Afghanistan no matter who rules it. They are not
averse to the idea of Afghan Taliban ruling
Afghanistan provided peace can be restored
there. Instead of blaming Pakistan for its
inability to cope with the Afghan Taliban
pressures, the Kabul government needs to work
with the bordering states, including China and
Russia for seeking peace and stability with the
Afghan Taliban. Any other strategy would
intensify conflict in Afghanistan, multiply the
sufferings of its people with a harmful fallout on
the bordering states.
countries, but no senior American official of the
Biden Administration has visited Pakistan so far.
The only exception is Ambassador Zalmay
Khalilzad who came to Pakistan twice after Joe
Biden assumed the Presidency. The Director
American CIA undertook a quiet visit to
Islamabad in the first week of June. It is difficult
to suggest if the visit of Pakistan’s security
11
officials can set the stage for a relationship of
trust and cooperation with the U.S. on security
issues in and around Afghanistan. There is so
much divergence in their worldview that it will
not be an easy task to cultivate a fully active
and cooperative relationship. However, both do
not want to cause a breakdown in their
relations because both know that cooperation is
mutually advantageous.
Pakistan has a limited relevance for the current
American policy. In addition to bilateral
relations in different domains of mutual
interests, Pakistan appears to be relevant for
American agenda in Afghanistan. The U.S.
wants Pakistan to facilitate the result-oriented
dialogue with the Afghan Taliban and
contribute to Afghanistan’s internal peace and
stability after American military withdrawal
from there. Pakistan is expected to take steps at
the individual level and work with the states of
region to ensure an inclusive political
settlement between the Afghan Taliban and the
Kabul based Afghan government. If we compare
this relationship with the Biden
Administration’s relations with India, the
sharing of goals is in the broader Asian context.
The U.S. would like India to stay engaged in
Afghanistan for its economic reconstruction and
for support to the Kabul government. However,
this relationship goes beyond Afghanistan. India
is directly relevant to American agenda for
restraining China’s influence and role at the
global level. This links India with American
policy in the Asia Pacific and South China Sea
region. The scope of Pakistan’s relations with
the U.S. would therefore be limited, confined to
some bilateral political, social and economic
matters and the issues of internal harmony and
peace in Afghanistan. They will agree in some
areas of mutual interest but disagree in others.
This means that this would be an issue-oriented
relationship rather than a comprehensively
positive relationship. The U.S.-China rivalry is
another constraint on the U.S-Pakistan
relations. The U.S. has strong reservations on
China’s agenda for global economic connectivity
through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
American officials have publicly rebuked the
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) but
Pakistan views it important for its economic and
societal development and regional connectivity.
The U.S. opposition to the CPEC is shared by
India.
There are several obstacles to a smooth and
fully cooperative relations between Pakistan and
the U.S. First, traditionally, the U.S. decided its
Afghanistan policy unilaterally and expected
Pakistan to shape its Afghanistan policies in
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accordance with the decisions made in
Washington. Pakistan did not always come up to
American expectations in this respect. Second, a
good number of people in America’s official
circles and think-tanks have their thinking
frozen in Pakistan’s pro-Taliban policies in the
1990s and the beginning of the 21st Century.
Most of them are unable to appreciate the
changes in the mindset of Pakistan’s military
and intelligence establishment because of their
bitter experience in the direct war on terrorism
in the tribal areas and mainland Pakistan in
2014-18. Most of Pakistan’s senior and middle
level officers and soldiers of today have done
counter terrorism duties during these years and
experienced the inhuman and brutal disposition
of the terrorist groups. Therefore, they do not
maintain goodwill towards them as was the case
in the 1980s and the 1990s. Pakistan has been
unable to project the change in the mindset of
Pakistan’s current security establishment. Third,
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Pakistan’s influence on the Afghan Taliban has
declined mainly because, with Doha, Qatar, as
the new base of their activities, the Afghan
Taliban are no longer dependent on Pakistan as
was the case during 1990-2010. Their direct
interaction with the U.S., Russia, and China has
given them strong self-confidence. This was not
the case when the above mentioned two decades.
Now, the U.S.-NATO decision to withdraw from
Afghanistan without any political settlement with
the Taliban has given a sense of greater
confidence to the Taliban who think that they
can either make the Kabul government
dysfunctional or dislodge it. Fourth, distrust has
traditionally characterized the relations between
the Afghan government and Pakistan. Now, as
the Afghan Taliban are increasing their control of
Afghan territory, the high officials in Kabul,
including the President, Vice President and
National Security Advisor are engaged in hostile
propaganda against Pakistan by claiming that
Pakistan is actively supporting the Afghan
Taliban. Several developments in July have
deteriorated their bilateral relation. The hostile
attitude of the Afghan government makes the
Pakistan less enthusiastic about seeking peace
in Afghanistan. It also encourages the pro-
Taliban religious groups in Pakistan to be active
for the Taliban and ask the Pakistan government
to take a tough line towards the Kabul
government. Fifth, the U.S. expects Pakistan to
pursue its policies keeping in view American
priorities in and around Afghanistan. However,
the U.S. does not give any attention to Pakistan’s
security concerns emanating from the policies of
Afghan and Indian governments. Such a neglect
of Pakistan’s security concerns reduces support
for American policy in Pakistan at the official and
non-official levels.
12
The Kabul government is persistent in its
propaganda against Pakistan and provides
encouragement and funding to Tehrik-i-
Taliban-i-Pakistan that is based in Afghanistan
for violence inside of Pakistan. The U.S. is
dismissive of these Pakistani concerns. It never
advises the Kabul government to observe
diplomatic decencies and restraint while talking
about Pakistan. Similarly, there are serious
problems between Pakistan and India. Pakistan
accuses India of resorting to a propaganda war
against Pakistan and that it also supports the
Pakistani Taliban and other dissidents to resort
to terrorist activities in Pakistan. The U.S. is not
willing to take any concrete initiative to contain
India’s hostility towards Pakistan. If Pakistan
has act alone to counter Afghan and Indian
pressures, it will accept American advice on
Afghanistan if it fits into Pakistan’s security
apprehensions. These concerns will shape
Pakistan’s policy on making Pakistani territory
or airspace available to the U.S. for anti-Taliban
operations.
WHY DID THE AFGHAN SYSTEM COLLAPSE?
The return of the Taliban to Kabul on August 15,
2021, is a remarkable event for understanding
why a superpower like the United States does
not always succeed in achieving its global
agenda? What are the limits of power? What
kept the Afghan Taliban alive as a militant
movement for twenty years? As the U.S. faced
the limits of power, do the Taliban face a similar
challenge after taking over Kabul? Are there
limits to the Taliban power for ruling
Afghanistan? The latest events in Afghanistan
have demonstrated, once again, the limits of
brute military power. The United States is the
strongest military power and the biggest
economy in the world. It can challenge any
powerful country or dislodge a governing system
in a militarily weak and internally divided
country or destabilize a government. However,
all this does not guarantee American success in
creating stable political and governmental
system that stays linked up with American
interest. The U.S. launched powerful military
invasion of Afghanistan (October-November
2001) and Iraq (March-April 2003), dislodged
the governments of the Afghan Taliban and
Saddam Hussain. However, it failed in
stabilizing the political situation in both
countries. Though one can find examples from
history about the inability of the militarily
powerful states to achieve satisfactory political
and military outcome of a conflictual situation.
This has become more difficult after the end of
the Cold War and the transformation of the
global power politics in the last two decades. A
conventional military power can counter
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Other Pakistani concerns are the influx of new
refugees from Afghanistan, the spillover of the
civil strife in Afghanistan on Pakistani territory,
arrival of Afghan security forces into Pakistan to
avoid the war in Afghanistan, and above all, the
danger of the internal strife in Afghanistan
turning into a proxy war for the competing states
from the region and the outside American
withdrawal from Afghanistan has added new
complexities to the already difficult Pakistan-U.S.
relations. If the U.S. distrusts Pakistan’s
Afghanistan policy, Pakistan has reservations
about American agenda in and around
Afghanistan and South Asia. Both sides should
address the issues that hamper cooperation in
their relations. The U.S. needs to demonstrate a
better understanding of the regional security
concerns of Pakistan rather than limiting the
relationship to American preferences in
Afghanistan.
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another conventional military power. It may
make gains in the short run. However, it is
always difficult to consolidate military gains in
term of transformation of the targeted state and
society. The single dimensional strategy of
relying heavily on conventional military power is
not an advisable methodology of achieving
military and political agendas. The military
strategy needs to be combined with several non-
military sources of power if the objective is to go
beyond destruction and loot of the adversary.
The coupling of military and non-military
sources of power is more important when , the
military encounter is with an adversary that is
non-conventional, partly invisible, and not based
in one specific place. This includes transnational
militant movements whose members are highly
motivated and determined to fight for their goals
for an indefinite period. The Afghan Taliban fall
in this category who managed to survive
American military onslaught. Such a non-
conventional entity can manage to survive in an
extremely difficult environment and spring back
in action after a long time. These movements
develop strong societal roots, backed by
ideological cohesion which help them to survive.
The United States knocked out the first Taliban
government from Kabul in November 2001, and
installed Hamid Karzai as the interim President
in December. Ashraf Ghani replaced him as
President in September 2014. Both governments
worked under the protective umbrella of the
United States and created a network of loyalists
in the name of democracy, human rights,
13
modern education and enhanced role of women.
This network comprised many Afghans who
returned to Afghanistan from abroad to benefit
from the new system either by joining with the
new Kabul government or work with American
troops. A young generation got the opportunity
to get modern education revived by these two
governments. They were joined by a host of
people who always stay with those in power.
This coalition of political opportunists and new
elite was projected as the new Afghanistan
sharing modern democratic values with the
West. The U.S. also created Afghan National
Army and the Police and an intelligence agency
to sustain the system after the exit of the U.S.
and NATO forces. This modern and democratic
sector of the society was limited to Kabul and
two-three cities only and lacked roots in the
Afghan society that included towns and villages
that did not benefit from this change. The U.S.
spent little amount on economic reconstruction
soldiers” in Afghanistan. There was a poor
relationship between the senior command and
the lower ranks, especially the soldiers. They
lacked professionalism and commitment to fight
the Taliban
The experience of Afghanistan and the Middle
East and North Africa shows that democracy and
other western liberal values cannot be imposed
from above. It is important to first understand
the traditional values and social system of the
society and then work for changes in them
through popular mobilization. This process of
change must benefit the common people so that
they develop a stake in the new system of
governance and social change. If the process of
change only creates a new elite class in the name
of democracy and human rights, the change
stays rootless and non-enduring.
American failure in Afghanistan is their inability

and human development and diverted its
attention in 2003 to conquering Saddam
Hussain’s Iraq. India was brought in for
undertaking social welfare projects. The new
Afghan system neither had the roots among the
people nor did it improve the quality of life for
the ordinary people. Consequently, when the
Afghan Taliban mounted military pressure on
different cities, the local administration and the
society generally cooperated with them or
agreed to work with them after some resistance.
The modern sector created by the U.S and
Kabul government collapsed. The same could be
said about the Afghan National Army and the
Police created by the U.S. As the large part of
work for setting up the Afghan National Army
and Police was done by American Contractors,
they were more interested in making money
than creating a professional and committed
army. There were periodic reports of defections
in the army and the existence of many “ghost
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to stabilize the political and state systems that
they created after dislodging the first Taliban
regime. The new system did not develop popular
roots. It was bound to collapse when American
protective shield was withdrawn. The Taliban
have succeeded in dislodging the U.S. and its
local allies. However, they face a bigger challenge
of creating a stable and peaceful internal
political order that accommodates ethnic and
religious diversity in the internal context and
addresses the concerns of the global community
created by their difficult experience with the first
Taliban government. The Taliban need to behave
like a responsible state rather than a radical
religious movement that works actively with
other transnational radical movements. The
initial policy statements of the Afghan Taliban
are reassuring, but these statements must be
turned into concrete actions through their new
governance arrangements.

PAKISTAN’S SOCIETAL RESPONSE TO THE CHANGES IN AFGHANISTAN

The reaction in Pakistan to the Afghan Taliban’s with the Taliban, are overjoyed by the Taliban’s
return to Kabul ranges from happiness and success. They view this as a God-given gift to
satisfaction to apprehension. The response of those whose faith in God and the triumph of the
the Pakistan government shuttles from the religious truth remained firm despite the
middle of these two extremes to marginal problems faced by them in the last twenty years.
satisfaction. Kabul is no longer controlled by They are convinced that the Taliban would
the government that manifests hostility towards succeed in ruling Afghanistan because they are
Pakistan and engages in propaganda against committed to the cause of God and the teachings
Pakistan at the global level. This change in and principles of Islam. Others have expressed
Kabul therefore gives some diplomatic relief to satisfaction because the United States has
Pakistan. However, there are issues that cause suffered a yet another setback. The U.S. attacked
concern to Pakistani state. The un-official the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in October
Pakistani reaction reflects the characteristic 2001 in revenge of the terrorist attacks in the
diversity of Pakistani politics and society. The U.S. on September 11, 2001. It was able to build
conservative religious circles, especially those a global coalition for that purpose which gave it a
who share religious-denominational identity military success. However, despite spending

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twenty years with heavy military presence and
unrestrained use of force it was unable to
eliminate the Taliban movement and failed to
consolidate its initial victory. It could not create
an alternate political and societal order because
it was practicing norms and values that were
alien to that society and the U.S. was relying on
an artificially propped up segment of Afghan
society. This included the Afghans brought back
from the western countries and a section of the
local who thought that the U.S. would not quit
Afghanistan, serving as a permanent umbrella
for their domestic hegemony. India also towards
entrenching its position in Afghanistan to
pursue its regional agenda on two assumptions:
American would quit completely and that the
Kabul administration along with its Afghanistan
National Army and the Police, established by
the U.S. and NATO countries, would never let
the Taliban succeed. Both these assumptions
collapsed. American failure to create a new
Afghanistan with military and economic power
showed that brute military power backed by
selective distribution of funds does not
guarantee political success. This is the latest
evidence of the decline of American power and
role in global politics. Still other people in
Pakistan that maintain strong interest in global
and domestic politics are happy that a
government hostile to Pakistan has collapsed in
Kabul. This government was using Pakistan as
an excuse to cover up its failure of governance
and is inability to cope with the Taliban
pressures. This disposition of the Kabul
government was strengthened by the support of
the Indian government which had its own axe to
grind for promoting its regional agenda and
pursing a proxy war against Pakistan by
providing funds and technical advice to the
Tehrik-i-Taliban-i-Pakistan and its allies and
some selected Baloch dissident groups for
violent activities in Pakistan. This was meant
not only to cause instability in Pakistan but
also to hit the China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor. The Kabul government was a willing
partner in this type of hostile activity against
Pakistan because it shared India’s antipathy
towards Pakistan and India provided resources
and technical support for Afghanistan’s
economic reconstruction. These projects
increased the presence of Indian personnel and
commercial and technical entities, including
under cover security and intelligence officers.
Some political circles in Pakistan have
expressed varying degrees of anxiety on the
return of the Taliban. They think that the
Taliban would ultimately create a political and
social system based on religious orthodoxy and
intolerance towards those subscribing to
different articulation of the religious text. They
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think that the Taliban would go back to the
political system imposed on Afghanistan by the
Taliban of the 1990s. They argue that this will
have a negative fall out on Pakistan which is a
plural society in terms of ethnicity, languages,
regions, and religious schools of thought. The
pro-Taliban religious hardliners would again
become active and threaten internal peace and
stability in Pakistan. They want the Government
of Pakistan to closely monitor the situation in
Afghanistan and preempt the efforts to revive
religious orthodoxy and religious extremism in
Pakistan by maintaining a safe distance from
Afghan Taliban. There is a small minority of
people that has adopted an alarmist view of the
developments in Afghanistan. While referring the
policies of the Taliban government in 1996-2001,
they think that Afghanistan would be plunged
back into an era of social and cultural
“darkness” and “intolerance”. Some of these non-
governmental groups think that there would be a
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return to denial of human rights and especially
women rights, in Afghanistan which will have a
negative fall out on Pakistan in these domains of
democracy and human rights.
The varied reaction in Pakistan to the political
changes in Pakistan is understandable because
Pakistanis have freedom to express their
opinions on the political and security
developments in and around Pakistan. Different
political parties and groups adopt competing
positions on political issues. Another reason for
the deep interest in Pakistan in the
developments in Afghanistan is that Pakistani
state and society have suffered because of the
developments in Afghanistan, going back to April
1978, when Noor Mohammad Taraki staged a
pro-Soviet coup against the Daud government. It
was after the Soviet military intervention in
Afghanistan in the last week of December 1979
that Pakistan experienced a full-blown impact of
this development. The impact of the
developments in Afghanistan in the 1980s and
the 19909s continue to haunt Pakistani society
even today. While monitoring the situation in
Afghanistan both at the official and non-official
level, there is a need to show patience in view of
the statements of the current Taliban leadership
in Afghanistan. They are talking about the
creation of an inclusive government and the
upholding of the principle of modern governance
that emphasize constitutionalism, the rule of law,
social justice, and tolerance towards dissent.
However, their system is going to be Islamic-
Sharia based and would also reflect their
experiences of the last 20 years that includes
their direct interaction with the U.S., China,
Russia, Turkey and Central Asian state through
their Doha office. This is in addition to their
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interaction with Pakistan and Iran. They are
more aware of global concern about them.
Therefore, there is a need to give the Taliban
time to demonstrate improvement in their
behavior. The Taliban can succeed if they
function as a state that stays linked with the
global system rather than as a movement. The
NEW GLOBAL SECURITY AFTER THE DEBACLE IN AFGHANISTAN
The unceremonious withdrawal of American
and NATO troops from Afghanistan has raised
questions about the role of power and its
management in post-Cold War era. Most writers
talk about the gradual decline of American
power and the rise of others. However, the
recent collapse of the U.S. sponsored
governance and security system in Afghanistan
has raised the fundamental issue of the
capacity of a state with powerful military to
assert its command in far and remote areas and
change the target society to its satisfaction?
Traditionally, power was viewed as central to
international politics. Every state wanted to
establish its power within its territorial limits as
well as assert its power on other states. The
other desired goal was how to neutralize the
domineering ambition of other states. The
military power was the main instrument for that
purpose. The militarily commanding role of the
U.S. was accepted as a reality in the post-Cold
War and Post-Soviet Union era (Post 1990-91).
The U.S. military action in January-February
1991 to liberate Kuwait from the military
control of Saddam Hussain’s Iraq was viewed by
many as the triumph of American supremacy.
After the breakup of the Soviet Union in
December 1991, the U.S. was described as the
“Sole Superpower” and victory of Western liberal
democracy and free economy. One writer
described this as the “End of History” of ideas
and political systems. That is, no system will
supersede Western liberal democracy and
capitalist economy. The U.S. and other Western
countries began to export Western political and
economic ideologies. American military debacle
in Afghanistan (August 2021) underlines the
limits of military poser in changing the nature
and direction of global politics. It shows that
military preponderance as the Sole Superpower
is no guarantee of dominating far and remote
countries and imposing Western political and
societal values on an entirely different and well-
entrenched social and cultural systems. The
enduring political and societal changes cannot
be made by overwhelming military presence and
the manufacturing of a proxy elite and the
beneficiaries of the imported socio-political
norms. One cannot argue that military power
has become totally irrelevant. However, its use
in far and distant regions is no longer an
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real test would be how the Taliban cultivate
relations with other states, especially the
neighboring states, and pay attention to global
concerns about the activities of the transnational
groups in Afghanistan that engage in violence
and terrorism in different countries.
advisable strategy. It is relevant only for defense
of territorial boundaries and the physical
security of state against direct and indirect
military or physical threats. The sending of
troops to other lands because a security threat is
perceived to be arising from there in the shape of
terrorism or extremism is a misleading
assumption and it can result in large scale
human and material losses with no assured
results to the advantage of the assaulting power.
The role as the global guardian against terrorism,
extremism and challenges to Western liberal
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democracy may benefit the “military-industrial
complex” of ‘military contractors” of the powerful
state pursuing this aggressive agenda. It neither
helps the ordinary people of the guardian state
or the target state.
The idea of changing an entirely different society
by creating a class of “proxy” elite or some
beneficiaries of the foreign military power in that
society does not create enduring change in the
local culture or social order. The U.S. and NATO
troops created a class of Afghans who benefited
from being associated with them in different
assignments or provided them basic services.
They also patronized large number of Afghans
who returned from abroad after the Karzai
government was installed in December 2001. The
third category was that of the new generation of
Afghans who went to colleges and universities in
these twenty years. These new classes were
confined to Kabul and other major cities where
either Americans were present or new
educational and cultural facilities were available.
They created a semi-western environment for
them. The rest of Afghanistan was living “as
usual” in misery and underdevelopment. When
U.S. troops left Afghanistan, this new class and
the new culture could not survive. Some of them
left the country, others disappeared from the
scene, some stayed on and attempted to make
their presence felt by staging street protest.
However, they do not have mass appeal. This
experiment of societal engineering failed.
The alternative framework for pursing political
agenda in far and distant lands should
emphasize socio-economic development; the
military aspect should be pushed back. The
Western states should help the governments of
the poor and developing nations to address
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issues of poverty and underdevelopment if they
want to neutralize extremism and terrorism.
Socio-economic development and economic
connectivity create mutually advantageous
situation and encourage interdependence.
Another important aspect pertains to checking
mal-administration and corruption in these
countries in the use of foreign economic and
technological assistance. Such issues can be
addressed by providing direct support to the
society for education, health care and basic
civic services and improvement of job creation
opportunities. All these efforts may not succeed
but their outcome would still be better than the
use of brute coercive force.
There is something to learn from China’s policy
of promoting economic connectivity with
different continents. Its Belt and Road Initiative
has enabled China to push its influence on
several countries in Asia and Africa. Therefore,
the U.S. and Western countries need to try the
socio-economic option in a more persistent
manner. The key to success of the socio-
AFGHANISTAN AND THE GLOBAL COMMUNITY:
Two months have passed since the Afghan
Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan. This
is a major achievement on their part because
the Taliban not only survived the American
military and economic power, but they created a
situation that forced the American and the
NATO allies to quit Afghanistan. The Taliban
face a big challenge of managing Afghanistan in
a manner that the majority of population stays
satisfied and the international community
accepts Afghanistan under Taliban as its
normal member. This is important for the
present government in Afghanistan because it
cannot put its economic house in order without
international cooperation. Pakistan and its
immediate neighbors are providing help to
Afghanistan to cope with humanitarian and
societal problems. However, Afghanistan needs
more international economic cooperation and
political support to avoid turning into a
dysfunctional state. So far, the Taliban
government in Kabul is maintaining a stable
control over the country. However, the recent
terrorist attacks in Jalalabad, Kabul and
Kunduz show that there are serious security
issues to be tackled. If the Islamic State-
Khurasan, Al-Qaeda and some other splinter
groups become active, the Kabul government’s
problems of maintaining internal peace and
satisfying the outside world have become more
challenging.
The international community is not expected to
wait indefinitely for seeking response to these
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economic alternate is the transfer of its benefits
to the ordinary people of the recipient county.
The United States need to tone down the military
dimension of the competition with China. There
is no need for the U.S. to build up local military
proxies to counter China. with which it also has
strong economic ties through American
multinational corporations. The U.S. and China
should compete in the domain of human welfare
and societal development by adopting socio-
economic measures for saving humanity from
hunger, poverty, underdevelopment and natural
calamities including epidemics/Pandemics. The
on-going challenge of Coronavirus-COVID-19 has
created a new security challenge. This has cost
the U.S. more lives than the terrorist attack on
September 11, 2001, as well as its military
operation in Afghanistan and Iraq. This type of
challenge cannot be addressed by military action
but by cooperative policies for addressing basic
human needs and assuring them a secure future.
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Think about peaceful, humane and cooperative
pathways to global security.
IN SEARCH OF A STABLE RELATIONSHIP
two issues: control of terrorists groups in
Afghanistan and come up to the international
expectation on human rights, accommodation of
thenic-tribal diversity and women’s rights. The
delay in addressing these issues will give a
chance to the adversaries of the Taliban to
engage in propaganda against them that they are
no better than the Taliban of the past. The
Taliban should also remember that the United
States had to experience political disgrace on its
unceremonious exit from Afghanistan. Therefore,
the U.S. and the European States have an
inbuilt bias against the Taliban, and they will not
accept a weak or unnecessarily delayed decision
by the Taliban on societal issues and civil and
political rights. Not to speak of the international
community, Pakistan and other states that share
border with Afghanistan want that the Taliban
quickly take steps on the above issues and make
sure that Afghan territory is not used by the
terrorist groups for their violent activities in the
neighboring states.
Pakistan is supportive of the Taliban government
in Afghanistan, and it has provided
humanitarian assistance to the Taliban
government. However, its efforts to create a
network of trade and economic ties, with
Afghanistan and Central Asian States cannot
materialize if Afghanistan faces internal
instability and conflict. A stable and
economically satisfied Afghanistan secures
Pakistan’s regional trade and economic agenda
which also includes getting gas and electricity
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from Central Asia. Pakistan also wants to offer
access to sea to Central Asian states through
Gwadar and Karachi. However, it is premature
to suggest that Pakistan would be able to
achieve its trade and economic relations agenda
with Central Asia because of the uncertainties
in the situation in Afghanistan If internal
economic situation deteriorates in Afghanistan,
Pakistan may get new Afghan refugees that will
cause economic and social pressures in the KP
and Balochistan. Another Pakistani concern
pertains to the possibility of activism on the
part of pro-Taliban hardline Islamic groups in
Pakistan. This trend can cause new societal
problems. The government of Pakistan has so
far discouraged public display of support and
loyalty to the Taliban by the religious groups
that share religious-denominational identity.
The recent meeting between the delegation of
the Taliban government and the United States
officials in Doha is the first sign of interaction
between them. The unofficial reports indicate
that the U.S. might provide some humanitarian
assistance to Afghanistan directly or through
UN agencies. The U.S. has also indicated to help
the Kabul government for controlling the
Islamic State and other terrorists groups in
Afghanistan. This is a trickly proposal because
POLITICAL IMPEDIMENTS TO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Pakistan is currently facing a difficult economic
situation which has undermined the capacity of
the government to govern effectively and
intensified socio-economic tensions in the
society. The slowing down of economic growth is
accompanied by budget deficit, increasing trade
deficit, the balance of payment problem, falling
value of Pakistani Rupee and a heavy reliance
on external sources like loans, grants and
remittances from overseas Pakistanis. The
domestic sources of the economy are weak.
When we examine those aspects of the economy
that concern the ordinary people, the situation
is troubling. Inflation and price hike have hit
the common person very hard. The inability of
the government to regulate market forces has
given a free hand to the suppliers of goods to
markets and market bosses to manipulate
prices. The new fiscal adjustments demanded
by the IMF as a precondition for revival of
stalled funding programme is expected to
increase the pains of the common people. The
federal government has provided financial
assistance to the poor people though various
welfare schemes. This has reduced a part of
economic pressure on those getting economic
assistance. However, these schemes do not offer
enduring solutions of poverty,
underdevelopment and inequalities in Pakistani
society that are now on the rise.
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it would involve some American military activity
in Afghanistan which may be too early after
American withdrawal.
The U.S is also keen to obtain an air corridor
through Western Pakistan to fly its aircraft from
its naval fleet in Arabian Sea-Indian Ocean to
Afghanistan. The U.S. is also seeking facilities in
Pakistan to station drone aircraft there for use
against the terrorist groups in Afghanistan. Any
such development will create a tricky situation
for Pakistan and the Taliban government in
Kabul. The alternate is that the states sharing
borders with Afghanistan provide necessary
military training and equipment to the fighting
forces of the Taliban who would deal with
internal terrorist groups. This strategy can work
if the U.S. unfreezes Afghan government’s
financial assets, and other western countries join
to provide economic and health care assistance
to Afghanistan. That is, the Afghan economic
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should become functional and its trade with the
neighboring states, especially with Pakistan,
should go on unimpeded. An improved economy
can enable the Taliban government to keep a
firm hold over Afghanistan.
We can blame the federal and provincial
governments for the troubled economic situation
because the management of the economy is their
responsibility. This is linked with the issues of
governance and political management. Any
economy can falter if the government cannot
effectively perform these inter-related tasks.
Does this mean that the removal of the current
federal and the provincial governments will
improve the economy? The answer is “No”. If the
government is unable to cope with economic
challenges, the opposition, mainly the PMLN and
the PPP, lack ideas and a vision to uplift the
economy. They spend most of their energies in
blaming the PTI government for economic decline
and ask for the resignation of the Prime Minister.
However, they have never put forward any
framework for the improvement of economic
situation. They have no plan of action, and they
never tell you about the ways and means of
improving the economy and addressing the
menace of inflation, price hike and how to avoid
reliance on foreign loans.
Pakistan’s economic problems are deep rooted
and complex. There are structural problems in
the economy that require difficult and
determined decisions, but the political
governments avoid taking such decisions. The
economy also suffers because of political
18
impediments. It is the problem of narrow
partisan and fragmented politics and the lack of
professionalism that makes Pakistani politics
detrimental to socio-economic development and
human welfare.
No single political party can rectify the economy.
It requires a comprehensive approach that
enjoys the support of the major political parties
and leadership. If the major political parties
cannot change their politics that is narrowly
focused on the interests of the party and its
leadership, Pakistan’s economy has little
prospects of overcoming the current decline.
The solutions of Pakistan’s economic problems
are available. The major obstacle is how to
implement them. This cannot be done without
developing a broadly shared understanding
among the major political parties on the
solutions, assigning them a priority over the
partisan interests of the parties and how to
implement the agreed framework of economic
action. It is the problem of politics and political
determination to implement difficult but
relevant strategies. The political context and the
disposition of the political leaders are not
helpful to addressing economic problems in a
dispassionate and professional manner. The
political situation is dominated by shortsighted
and immediate compulsions and highly one-
sided considerations of the political leaders.
The rampant corruption and the failure of the
dominant Pakistani elite to make a distinction
between personal and official domains has led
to a tendency to make use of state resources
and facilities for personal use. There is a lot of
wastage of state resources for providing
facilities to the senior civil and military officials,
parliamentarians and those holding key political
offices and their close associates that
contributes to dearth of resources for societal
development and the welfare of the common
people. Further, corruption has become so deep
rooted in the society that you find it at every
level of the society—from a small shopkeeper to
senior officials. Some these corrupt practices
are ignored for partisan reasons. Any corruption
GOOD ECONOMY THROUGH KNOWLEDGE AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
We are living in an age where no nation can
make a significant impact at the global level and
address its domestic problems without the
acquisition of Knowledge, Science, technology,
and good economy. In fact, good economy is
assured if you possess knowledge, science, and
technology and spend resources on human
development. The nations have moved from
decay and shambles to riches by acquiring the
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related inquiry against political leaders is
described as political victimization.
The political context of the economy also suffers
from linguistic, ethnic, regional and religious-
sectarian divides that fragment the society and
makes it difficult for people, including many
officials to adopt a professional and nonpartisan
disposition. The habit of public display of
religious piety and religious extremism and
terrorism that Pakistan has been experiencing
since the 1980s has also undermined Pakistani
politics and economy. The outbreak of COVID-19
has also adversely affected the economy.
If the much-required decisions for improving the
economy are to be made and then fully
implemented in their true spirit the political
parties and the leaders will have to change their
ways of pursuing politics. They need to review
the major trends of current Pakistani politics
that include the brute struggle for politics devoid
of democratic ethos and morality, opposition for
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the sake of opposition, pursuance of personal
vendetta against one another and the efforts to
undermine the political adversary at any cost.
The political leaders need to cultivate an
understanding for managing key economic
challenges, especially the matters relating to
societal development and human welfare. They
should develop a collective approach to providing
health care and education facilities to the
common people, basic civic facilities and how to
improve the quality of life in urban and rural
areas. Other key issues that require immediate
consensus between the government and the
opposition include how to deal with the state
enterprises suffering from financial losses,
reduction of reliance on international financial
institutions and external loans, strengthening of
agriculture and production of value-added goods
for export and how to control corruption and
wastage of state resources. The key to
Pakistan’s economic salvation is in the hands of
the political elite in power and in opposition.
They will have to think beyond their party and
personal interests. If they are not willing to
change, no government, present or the future,
will be overcome the economic predicament.
above-mentioned qualities. Japan and Germany
were destroyed by the end of the World War
Second in 1945. Japan was hit by the first two
American nuclear weapons. Today, these two
countries are two leading economies in the world.
The reason is well known. Their leadership was
determined to turn around the situation which
they did by virtue of knowledge, science and
technology. This has made them economic and
19
political powers. The developing countries like
Pakistan must understand that they cannot
exercise influence and enjoy respect in the
comity of nations without a sound socio-
economic profile which is not possible to
achieve without excelling in knowledge, science
and technology. There is a need to recognize
that knowledge does not necessarily mean
awarding academic degrees to young people.
There has been a proliferation of public sector
and private universities and other educational
institutions in Pakistan during the last thirty
years. These universities, especially the public
sector universities, are dishing out higher
academic degrees in a large quantity. However,
around two-thirds of such degree holders are
unable to compete at the global level. In fact,
the people taking interviews for jobs complain
about the low academic quality of university
degree holders. However, there are small
number of young persons who are achievers at
the international level and inside of Pakistan.
They do not create a positive accumulative
impact on Pakistani society because they are
smaller in number and some of them go abroad
for seeking better opportunities. Proper
education and knowledge turn an individual
into a self-controlled and achievement-oriented
person who adopts a professional disposition.
He also acquires the habit of hard and honest
work, staying away from the temptation of
overnight richness. Good education also teaches
commitment to societal welfare and
development. If universities are not producing
such persons, there is a need of reviewing the
system of education and the environment of
educational institutions. The absence of
excellence and professionalism among the
university students and university educated
persons undermines the prospects of that
nation overcoming its socio-economic difficulties
and making a place of significance at the world
level.
The notion of Knowledge as power could be
ignored during the Cold War era. The
superpower conflict was so sharp that either the
United States or the Soviet Union was willing to
support a country no matter if its leaders had
messed up its internal political and economic
affairs. The support of either power was
guaranteed if that country was prepared to
serve the agenda of that global power. Now, as
the Cold War era has ended long ago, the
United States has acquired more leverage for
deciding about the countries to be rescued from
poverty and underdevelopment.
In the post Cold War era from 1991 onwards,
the United States emerged as the sole
superpower and it attempted to restructure the
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international system to its preferences. It did not
fully succeed in this venture but the U.S.
continued to function as the most significant
player because it was the biggest economy and
the strongest military power. In the first decade
of the 21st Century the global order shifted from
sole superpower to multipolarity with new power
centers emerging like the European Union,
England, Japan, Russia and China. The success
of each of these powers depended on its ability to
mobilize support of different power centers in the
global system. It is important to understand why
these countries acquired salience in the
international system. The answer is evident.
These states represented knowledge, science and
technology along with the assignment of a
priority to excellence and professionalism that
enabled them to become the leading economies
and military powers.
There are other examples of the countries of East
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and Southeast Asia that looked towards Pakistan
as a model for economic development in the early
1960s. Now, these states are far ahead of
Pakistan in knowledge, science, technology, and
economy. These nations spent resources on good
education and heath care and civic facilities for
human resource development. Today, these
countries are better economies and enjoy respect
as a source of modern technology and industrial
development. China is the best example how a
country can move from a weak economy and
poor military power in 1949 to become the key
player at the global level by 2021-22. It is now
the second biggest economy and a military power
of global implications. It has excelled in
knowledge, science and technology. It has also
spent resources on human development and
poverty alleviation. Today, China is a global
economic and military player. Its policy of global
economic connectivity through Belt and Road
Initiative and investment in Africa has caused
major concern in the U.S. which views it as a
rival for global influence. However, the rivalry
between China and the U.S. is coupled with
considerable linkages between their economies
which would make it difficult for them to engage
in any major direct military conflict.
What are the lessons for Pakistan? Its salvation
does not lie in the on-going bitter fight for power
among different political parties. This type of
politics may satisfy the ego of some political
leaders but it cannot secure the future of
Pakistan as an independent and sovereign
country. Even if there is a change of government
the political and economic situation is not
expected to change. The leaders of different
political parties and the relevant state
institutions must agree on assigning the highest
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priority to creating an economy that stands on
Pakistan’s domestic sources rather than on
foreign loans, grants, and remittances. This is
not possible without cultivating professional
and performance-oriented attitude among the
youth of Pakistan by imparting globally
competitive knowledge, science and technology.
RUSSIA- UKRAINE CONFLICT AND THE WAY OUT
The ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict has raised
several issues in global politics and challenged
many political assumptions that emerged in the
post-Cold War international system that began
to unfold after the collapse of the Soviet Union
in December 1991. For the first time the two
rivals of the Cold War era are arrayed against
each other, using diplomatic and military
pressures. Both sides, Russia and the U.S., are
engaged in the dangerous game of diplomatic
and military brinkmanship which can go out of
control. The United Nations and several
countries have advised restraint and attempted
to defuse tension by asking Russia to pull back
its troops from the Ukrainian-Russian border
and asked the U.S. and its European allies to
tone down their rhetoric and troops transfer to
two Eastern European states bordering Ukraine.
The Ukraine-Russia conflict reached a high level
of tension when in the early hours of February
24, 2022, Russia launched air strikes on
airfields and military bases in different parts of
Ukraine. These attacks appear to be motivated
by Russian desire to damage these airfields and
military bases to the extent that the NATO
members are not able to supply military
equipment to Ukraine. These attacks are also
meant to undermine Ukraine’s military capacity
to resist and force it to stay within the Russian
orbit of influence.
Russia has adopted a three-pronged strategy to
pursue its security agenda in Ukraine. First,
mobilization of its troops on the Ukrainian
border in a hostile posture and holding of
exercises close to the border to keep Ukraine
under military pressure. Second, recognition of
the rebel Ukrainian states of Donetsk and
Luhansk, located in the Donbass region known
for its pro-Russia orientations. Third, the target
specific military attack on Ukraine. Russian
troops also went for helping the two rebel states
in the Donbass area that were having periodic
military encounters with the Ukraine army. It
appears at this stage that the war would stay
limited to specific targets. However, if Russia is
not satisfied with the outcome of the strategy of
hitting specific military targets, the current
military operation could escalate to a full war.
The Russian military action in Ukraine has
been condemned by the United States, the
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Pakistan needs to enhance its expenditure on
human resources development by arranging
quality education, health care and civic facilities
as well as the sense of civic responsibility. China
has turned its population into a national asset.
Can we say this about Pakistan?
United Kingdom, Canada and the NATO
countries. Some other countries have also
criticized Russian military action. The UN
expects the military option to be replaced with a
dialogue on the contentious issues. As Ukraine is
not yet a member of NATO, the NATO members
are not bound to view the Russian military
action as an attack on them and they are not
bound to commit their troops physically in
defense of Ukraine. However, they cannot let
Russia have its way in Ukraine because it will
have implication far beyond that country for the
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U.S. and its allies.
In the past, the U.S./NATO supplied some
military equipment to Ukraine. Some minor
economic sanctions were also applied. Now, after
the Russian military operation, the European
states have decided to impose sanctions against
Russia in Finance, Banking, Energy and
Transport sectors. It covers restrictions on
supply of aircraft spares, oil related expertise
and other technologies needed for Russian
industry. Some travel restrictions for Russians
have also been imposed. The U.S. supports these
sanctions and has decided to impose severe
restriction on American exports to Russia,
blocking of banking facilities and ban on some
Russian companies and individuals for travel
and economic interaction. These sanctions can
be increased and made more stringent if Russia
does not step-back from its current military
posture.
The problem with these sanctions is that their
effectiveness is doubtful because not all other
countries, especially China, will boycott Russia.
Even some European states, especially East
European states, are not fully in favor of Russia’s
economic boycott. In the post-Cold War period,
two important changes have taken place. First,
America’s sole superpower role has given way to
the rise of different power centers; Russia is one
such emerging power center. The U.S. cannot
command all friendly countries. Second, the
former adversaries of the Cold War era, the U.S.
and its European allies on the one hand and
Russia and China on the other hand, have now
developed strong economic and diplomatic
interaction. The European states have strong
economic interaction with Russia and people in
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European do not have so strong negative feeling
about Russia as you can find in the U.S.
However, the U.S. also has developed some
trade and private sector individual interaction
and tourism with Russia. The economic
relationship between the U.S and China is
stronger than the U.S. relations with Russia.
Therefore, it is not clear how far these sanctions
can be stretched. If economic restrictions are
kept for an indefinite time, these will face
opposition in Europe. Some elements from the
private sector will also grumble.
Diplomatic pressure can be effective if the U.S.
and NATO review their policy of expansion up to
the Russian border. Even in the case of Ukraine,
the situation would have been at a lower level of
tension, if the NATO leadership had not talked
loudly and repeatedly about brining Ukraine
into its fold. Russia had made it clear that it
would not accept the NATO to reach its border
because that threatened its vital security
considerations. Another issue that requires
attention relates to the Donbass region and
Crimea. The population in these regions has
strong linkages with Russia; it is a Russian
WAR AND DIPLOMACY IN WORLD POLITICS
War is not viewed as desirable activity but it is a
feature of global politics. Nations go to war for
several reasons. However, the ways of war have
changed over time because of innovative human
mind, changes in weapons systems and new
opportunities created by modern
communication and information technologies. It
is now possible to humble an adversary country
without dispatching troops across the territorial
boundaries of a state. It is called war by non-
military means.
Traditionally, a powerful ruler would use his
state’s military power to establish his hegemony
on the neighboring states, deter another state
from military operation or force another ruler to
follow his advice in regional affairs. Actual
military operation or its threat is often used to
change the policy options of another state.
Initially, the affluent people and the feudal lords
provided soldiers to the ruler who joined the
ruler’s own soldiers to fight against the
neighboring state or to counter a military
invasion by another state. It was towards the
beginning of the 19th Century that the notion of
a trained standing army at the disposal of the
ruler began to be adopted by the rulers in
Europe and elsewhere so as to reduce the
dependence on feudal elite and warlords within
the state. The professional standing armies were
also used by European states to expand their
colonial control of non-European countries.
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background and pro-Russia population that
dominates these regions and they openly talk of
joining Russia. Crimea was annexed by Russia
after the March 2014 referendum which sought
separation from Ukraine. The states bordering
Russia, especially Ukraine, and the European
states should sit together to decide about
creating autonomous entities of the disputed
regions which should have equal level
relationship with Russia and Ukraine.
Russia is extremely sensitive about its security
interests in Central Asia and Eastern European
states bordering Russia vis-à-vis, the NATO’s
desire to spread itself into the states bordering
Russia. This Russian policy may have strong
streaks of imperialism but this thinking cannot
be dismissed outrightly, and the U.S. and NATO
cannot have a free hand for extending their
military reach to Russian borders. Therefore, the
West, Russia, and China need to create a policy
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framework of mutual respect and a mid-course
option between the NATO desire to spread out
towards East and Russian policy of keeping the
NATO at a distance.
Later, they established professional militaries in
the colonized countries that worked under the
control of the colonial country and its armed
forces. These troops were used to assert and
expand the control in the colonized territories,
security of the territorial boundaries,
maintenance of law and order, and help to
civilian administration to cope with natural
calamities. The local troops of the colonized state
were also used for undertaking military
expeditions outside the territories of the
colonized state in pursuance of foreign policy
goals of the colonizing state. The British colonial
government used Indian troops in the two World
Wars outside of British India.
War technologies changed a lot in the 20th
Century, especially during the two World Wars,
like the introduction of long-range guns, the
tank system, the use of aircraft for bombing and
explosives and weapons. Two nuclear weapons
were used by the United States on two cities of
Japan in August 1945. Nuclear weapons
capability was acquired by the Soviet Union,
China, the United Kingdom and France in the
post-World War Second period during the years
of the Cold War. Israel, India, and Pakistan
acquired this capability much later. North Korea
is believed to have acquired nuclear weapons
capability and its missile delivery system. The
major shift in war techniques came with the
advent of new Information and communication
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technologies, especially the internet-based
communication system and the availability of
various social media platforms as well as the
introduction of satellite TV, and radio, satellite
and regular mobile phone systems. These
technologies and internet-based platform and
cyber-space are used by the state as well as
non-state actor to pursue their ideological and
political agendas and to subdue their adversary.
Now-a-days, in addition to the use of hard
military power to subdue an adversary country,
several non-military methods can also be used
to achieve the military agenda. The non-military
means are used to compel a country to change
its domestic or foreign policy. The war can now
be pursued by non-military means, but these
non-military means can be effective if it is
known that the concerned country has also got
enough conventional military power and
weapons system at its disposal. In other words,
the new methods of waging war have not
replaced the conventional war methods. The
new methods have increased the options to
pursue political and military agendas.
Modern communication technology can be used
for negative propaganda against a country or for
making specific political demands. The outside
powers can exploit internal ethnic, linguistic,
religious and regional differences to their
advantage by extending support to some such
groups, especially those challenging the
government and the state. Hard cash can easily
be supplied for accentuating such activities that
create internal chaos and civil strife. Fake news
can be used to increase internal turmoil in a
country. The method of proxy war is used by
supporting some feuding groups in a country.
Other state provide material, financial, and
diplomatic support to the dissident and
separatist groups. The neighboring countries
can offer a safe haven and training facilities to
anti-state groups in another state. The major
powers have used both military and non-
military methods to change governments in
PAKISTAN’S ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CHALLENGES
Pakistan is passing through a difficult time.
Most of its problems relate to its troubled
economy that has compounded political and
societal problems. It is a sad story of neglect of
the basic imperative of the economy and politics.
The situation has reached to a point that
Pakistan’s ruling elite feel happy if they get the
IMF financial installment, some country defers
the repayment of loans, or some country
deposits some billions of dollars in the State
Bank of Pakistan account to support foreign
exchange reserves. This money stays with
Pakistan but Pakistan cannot spend this
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other countries. The United States is known for
effecting government change in several Latin
American countries and in Iran (Dr. Mosaddeq
government in 1953) and Iraq by different
methods. It has also supported the groups of its
choice in internal conflicts of other states to
ensure a political change of its choice in the
target country. The first stage of the policy of
changing the government is expression of strong
reservation on the policies of the government
through the official diplomatic channels. The
second stage is the launch of propaganda
against that country at the international level
though official and non-official sources,
including the global media. The objective is to
embarrass the target government by raising
issues about human rights, the rule of law,
treatment of religious and ethnic minorities, and
corruption. This is accompanied by increasing
interaction with the domestic opposition of the
government of the target state and encouraging
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the opposition to take a firm position against the
government. If political agitation breaks out, a
major power may extend support to the
opposition if the change of government is the
goal of the major power. The suspension of
economic aid and discontinuation of military aid
are also known methods as a part of the
sanction policy. In the case of the recent
Pakistan-U.S relation, the adverse comments of
the U.S. official in a meeting with Pakistani
Ambassador in Washington were a subtle threat
to the then PTI government to change its policy
towards Russia and China. Some limited
interaction also took place between American
embassy people in Islamabad and some
opposition leaders in Feb-March which made it
clear to the domestic opposition that the PTI
government had lost the goodwill of the U.S. The
first stage strategy of the U.S. worked and Imran
Khan government was knocked out of power by
the vote of no-confidence which was a domestic
affair. However, American policy contributed to
encouraging the opposition to confront the PTI
government with greater persistence.
amount. Pakistan also attempts to obtain new
foreign loans from foreign banks or countries or
it floats financial bonds in international markets.
Pakistan’s current strategies of economic
management can keep its economy afloat but
these do not provide enduring solutions to
Pakistan’s economic problems. There are no
signs on the horizon that can make Pakistanis
hopeful of an early recovery from the economic
predicament. Currently, Pakistan faces several
economic, political and social problems which
are briefly noted below.
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The economy faces three sets of problems. It
relies heavily on external sources rather than
domestic sources of support. Its major external
sources of support are economic grants, loans
and financial support dozes by individual
countries, international financial institutions
and international banks. It seeks debt
rescheduling from other countries. In this
month Japan, Switzerland and France have
rescheduled Pakistan’s loans. Pakistan also
benefits from the funds overseas Pakistan send
home for their families or for business and
investment activity. The second aspect of the
economy is that Pakistan’s economy’s domestic
source is not sufficient to cover all expenditures
of the state. It faces current account deficit and
budget deficit. The balance of trade is not
favorable to Pakistan. Other problems include
low foreign exchange reserves and sliding value
of Rupee There is an urgent need to strengthen
domestic revenue sources by checking poor
productivity and low investment. The focus
should be on agriculture, industry, business
and trade. Third deficient aspect of Pakistan’s
economy relates to the increased economic
burden on the common people. Inflation and
steep price hike of the utilities and the goods of
daily household life have plunged the common
people into a crisis which they cannot handle
without drastic changes in the government
priorities. Another economic problem with
political and social aspects is the acute neglect
of human welfare. The areas of neglect that hurt
the common people most are health care,
education and transport. Traditionally,
Pakistani federal and provincial governments
have spent a small number of resources on
health care and education. The government
hospitals are overcrowded and provide
inadequate services to common people. The
governments are more interested in launching
some fashionable schemes for health care or for
education rather than adopting well-planned
and carefully managed plans to upgrade state
level hospitals, especially at the district and
tehsil levels. Similarly, state educational
institutions require urgent attention. It is the
failure of the state that the private sector has
come in a big way in both health care and
educations sectors. The common people cannot
benefit from them because of their high fees and
other expenses. All major cities of Pakistan lack
an integrated public transport system that links
most parts of the city. This has caused
overcrowding on roads by private vehicles and
motorbikes. The rise in petrol and diesel prices
has caused additional financial burden on the
people. In Pakistan socio-economic inequality is
on the rise. The gap between the rich sections of
population and the poor majority has increased
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over time. The number of people living below the
poverty-line has increased. You can find posh
houses, big vehicles, posh shopping areas and
high-price restaurants. On the other hand, there
are people who are not sure if they can feed their
families regularly. Voluntary social organizations
and religious groups and some individuals help
the poorest section of population. The human
welfare porgrammes of the state are inadequate.
The distribution of charity is a temporary
solution. There is a need of creating permanent
sources of income for the poor people. The
neglect of the above sectors, and the poor
attention to human welfare have weakened the
confidence of the ordinary people in the
governmental system. The impression is gaining
ground tht no matters who rules, they would
continue to suffer deprivation and denial. If they
lose interest in the governance system, they do
not also stand up to protect the political system
when it runs into severe challenges. If such an
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attitude of disinterestedness becomes
widespread, it is viewed as a bad sign for the
working of democracy in that country. This also
results in the decline of moral ethos and self-
restraint in the society. The attitude of fairness
and honesty has weakened. Other social ailment
that adversely affect economy include on-going
political wars between the rival political parties
and leaders. The open violation of the
parliamentary decorum and use of abusive
language against one another is common in
politics. Hostile idiom of politics has made it
difficult for the political leaders to sit together
and address the socio-economic problems of
Pakistan. They appear to be engaged in ego-drive
and resort to brute struggle for power which
results in the problems of the state and the
society. They are no longer interested in
addressing the problems of religious and cultural
extremism that exist in Pakistani society.
The key to addressing Pakistan’s economic
predicament and providing economic relief to the
common people is the human factor. That is the
behavior and disposition of the common people
as well as the leaders. If the political leaders
defuse their mutual political wars and give up
their rude attitude towards one another, there is
a possibility of Pakistan moving in the direction
of solving the problems. They should talk to each
other for achieving sustainable growth, reforms
for improving productivity, control of excessive
consumption by the upper strata of the society,
reducing dependence on external sources and
focusing on the welfare of the common people .
However, if Pakistan’s current politics continues
as it is, there is a little chance of achieving any of
these goals.
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THE COMPLEXITIES OF PAKISTAN-UNITED STATES RELATIONS
There are strong indications that Pakistan and
the United States want to do away with the
stalemate in their relations and activate them to
their mutual advantage. These signals were
visible when Pakistan’s Foreign Minister visited
Washington, D.C. in September-October after
the UN General Assembly session. He met with
several senior officials of the State Department,
including the Secretary of State. The goodwill
trends were confirmed during the visit of
Pakistan’s Army Chief and some senior
commanders to Washington last week. The
security related cooperation is expected to
increase. The U.S. Administration has
expressed willingness to provide 450 million
dollars spare-parts and equipment for F-16
aircrafts which Pakistan had purchased from
the U.S in the decade of the 1980s. The U.S. is
expected to continue providing relief aid for
Pakistan’s flood victims.
The revival in the Pak-U.S. relations is expected
to be limited in scope and it will reflect positive
and negative interaction simultaneously,
depending on the issue under consideration.
Traditionally the major interests of the United
States are not inside Pakistan, but around
Pakistan. There are three phases of highly
active relations between these two countries.
These are 1954-55 to 1962, 1980-1989, and
2001 to 2016. Pakistan received civilian
economic and technological assistance, societal
development and educational grants, military
sales and grants and military training. However,
these three phases had periodic problems in
their bilateral relations. Both sides had a list of
complaints against each other in these three
phases of cordiality. The most problematic year
in their relations was 2011; some of these
problems continued in the later years. This
relationship also represents the typical dilemma
of the relations between a superpower with
global interests and a Third World Developing
country whose interests are local and regional.
Further, the India factors has a negative impact
on Pakistan’s global interaction, including its
relations with the U.S.
In today’s global politics, Pakistan has relevance
for the United States for three major reasons:
Pakistan’s nuclear weapons capability,
Pakistan’s strategic location, and post-
withdrawal American interests in Afghanistan.
Pakistan has multifaceted interests in the U.S.
that include financial support from
international financial institutions where the
United States and other Western countries have
strong influence; bilateral economic assistance;
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purchase of high-technology military equipment,
weapons, and civilian technologies; military
training facilities; trade especially the export of
textile goods; and strong societal linkages of
Pakistan elite with the U.S. Pakistan often makes
unsuccessful bids to seek American diplomatic
support for its problems with India.
Both, the U.S and Pakistan need to engage with
each other on a regular basis with an
understanding that all of their objectives cannot
be achieved to each other’s satisfaction. The
strategy should be to identify the shared areas of
cooperation and stay engaged in the areas of
disagreement. The only American interest in
Afghanistan is to make sure that it does not
become a secure space for transnational terrorist
groups. The U.S. would like to obtain Pakistan’s
cooperation for reconnaissance, information
gathering and the military action with armed
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drones against these terrorist groups based in
Afghanistan. The U.S. will prefer if Pakistan
downgrades or pulls out of the China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor because it gives a new sea
access to China for trade and movement of
people. The U.S. administration has expressed
its reservation on Pakistan’s participation in
building a land corridor to link Western China
with sea at Gwadar and warned of the possible
injurious implications of Chinese loans for
Pakistan. This perspective emphasizes that
China could establish a stranglehold on
Pakistan’s economy though the loan-based
corridor and industrial projects. Pakistan rejects
these arguments and insists on continuing with
its deep-rooted relations with China, including
the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
The United States enjoys the support of some
states of Asia-Pacific region to limit China’s
global role and wants to contain its ability to
freely use South China areas. The U.S. has
created bilateral understanding with some states
this region and created an arrangement with
India, Japan and Australia for that purpose. The
American strategy is to discourage China’s policy
of global connectivity through trade, investment
and loans to make inroads into Africa, South
Asia and the Middle East. China’s Belt and Road
Initiative is integral to this strategy. The U.S. is
working on an anti-China networking with
several countries to neutralize these Chinese
policies. Another aspect of American policy is the
role of India. The collaboration between the U.S.
and India has shown significant improvement
since 2005. India is now America’s strategic
partner as a dependable ally for containment of
China and shares views with the U.S. on security
issues in Asia-Pacific region and transnational
25
terrorism in and around Afghanistan. The
security and economic relations between India
and the U.S. have also improved during the last
ten years with increased trade, investment of
American multinational corporations in India,
and the exchanges between the two countries in
Information and Communication Technologies.
In the security field, India is viewed by the
official and semi-official circles in the U.S. as a
stable country that can be helpful in
conventional and non-conventional security in
the region. From American strategic perspective,
India enjoys a higher priority than Pakistan.
The U.S. views its relations with India and
Pakistan as two different policy tracks. The U.S.
is not expected to endorse Pakistani stand on
the current India-Pakistan problems. However,
it wants to keep the tensions between India and
Pakistan at a low and manageable level. It does
not want India and Pakistan to go to war
because both possess nuclear weapons. In the

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case of India-Pakistan problems, the U.S. acts
more as a ‘fire-fighter’ rather than a ‘problem
solver.’

Given such a divergence on several issues, the

U.S.-Pakistan relations would be limited in
scope. They may cooperate in one issue area
but disagree with each other’s perspective on
another issue.

To handle the complex Pakistan-United States

relations, Pakistan must devote attention to two
issues. Pakistan should work for improving
relations with the U.S. in the shared policy
areas and maintain a sustained dialogue in the
areas of policy divergence. It is not advisable to
alienate a superpower. Pakistan should focus
on improving its domestic economy and politics.
The domestic sources of the economy need to be
strengthened so as to reduce dependence on
external economic support. Good and stable
economy can make Pakistan a more attractive
proposition at the global level and increase
Pakistan’s policy options in foreign policy and
domestic policy matters. This also calls for
defusing the on-going acute confrontation in
domestic politics and promotion of social and
political harmony keeping in view the basic
principles of democracy and constitutionalism.

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