See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.

net/publication/354753920

Land use changes and hydrological trend analysis in a Brazilian Cerrado basin

Article in International journal of Environmental Science and Technology · September 2021

DOI: 10.1007/s13762-021-03666-8

CITATIONS READS

0 74

6 authors, including:

Lorena Ferraz Lorena Souza Silva

Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana
25 PUBLICATIONS 7 CITATIONS 10 PUBLICATIONS 0 CITATIONS

SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE

Lucas Farias de Sousa Raildo Jesus

Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz
15 PUBLICATIONS 97 CITATIONS 55 PUBLICATIONS 718 CITATIONS

SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE

Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects:

TENDÊNCIAS HIDROLÓGICAS SOB A INFLUÊNCIA DE DIFERENTES CENÁRIOS DE USO E OCUPAÇÃO DO SOLO EM UMA BACIA TROPICAL NO NORDESTE DO BRASIL View
project

Chemical profiling of guarana seeds ( Paullinia cupana ) from different geographical origins using UPLC-QTOF-MS combined with chemometrics View project

All content following this page was uploaded by Carlos Amilton Silva Santos on 22 September 2021.

The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-021-03666-8

ORIGINAL PAPER

Land use changes and hydrological trend analysis in a Brazilian

Cerrado basin
L. L. Ferraz1 · L. F. de Sousa1 · L. S. da Silva2 · R. M. de Jesus1 · C. A. S. Santos3 · F. A. Rocha3

Received: 23 April 2021 / Revised: 30 June 2021 / Accepted: 11 September 2021

© Islamic Azad University (IAU) 2021

Abstract
Water is one of the most important natural resources and it is essential for human supply, industrial use, and agricultural
production. Non-stationarity in historical flow series can indicate the approach of a water crisis or the occurrence of extreme
events, which calls for measures to prevent worse scenarios. The objective of this study was to examine the trend in the
historical series of hydrological flow and precipitation data and analyze changes and trends in land use and land cover dur-
ing the period 1985–2018. Data were subsequently subjected to the Mann–Kendall, Spearman’s rho, and Sen’s slope tests.
To identify the point of change in the series, the Pettitt test was used. The results indicate significant negative trends for
all analyzed fluviometric stations and low nonsignificant trends in the precipitation series. Associated with these trends,
there was a marked reduction in natural areas and an increase in anthropogenic change of landscape that reached + 426%
of evolution in agricultural areas with a turning point in 2000, which coincides with the turning point of the flow series.
The present study showed that the conversion of native forest into agricultural areas was the main process of change in the
land use. According to the statistics employed, the decreasing trends in the flow of the main river and its tributaries are not
related to changes in precipitation levels but to increased deforestation and the advancement of agricultural and urban areas
throughout the studied region.

Keywords Flow · Precipitation · Time series · Water scarcity

Introduction variation, human activities also influence the water cycle

In recent years, the impacts of climate change on water
resources have triggered the publication of an expressive
number of studies in high-impact journals worldwide (Lv
et al. 2020; Sabbaghi et al. 2020; Pousa et al. 2019; San-
tos et al. 2019). However, climate is not the only cause of
changes in the hydrological regime. Along with climatic
Communicated by Senthil Kumar Ponnusamy.
* L. L. Ferraz
lorenalferraz@gmail.com
1
Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz (UESC),
Rodovia Jorge Amado, km 16, Bairro Salobrinho,
Ilhéus‑Bahia CEP 45662‑900, Brazil
2
Universidade Estadual Do Sudoeste da Bahia (UESB), BR
415, km 04, Itapetinga‑Bahia CEP 45000‑700, Brazil
3
Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia da
Bahia (IFBA), Av. Sérgio Vieira de Mello, 3150, Zabelê,
Vitória da Conquista‑Bahia, Brazil
and the stationarity of hydrological systems (Jehanzaib et al.
2020).
Stationarity is a fundamental concept that permeates
water resource engineering, whereby a stochastic process
is considered stationary if its mean and variance are con-
stant over time (Ehlers 2007). Anthropogenic effects on river
basins, such as changes in land use due to urbanization, agri-
culture, and deforestation, may cause so-called stationary
hydrological series to become non-stationary (Salas and
Obeysekera 2014).
According to Milly et al. (2008), regional assessments to
determine the factors that influenced a change in flow pat-
terns are complex. Several studies (Gharbia et al. 2020; Liu
et al. 2020; Vasco et al. 2017) show that changes in infiltra-
tion processes, groundwater recharge, base flow, and runoff
are the effects of water infrastructure works and land use
changes, especially in the case of deforestation and the rise
in agricultural areas. Moreover, these changes accentuate
soil loss, fragmentation of biodiversity, and water and soil
pollution and favor the occurrence of extreme weather events

13
Vol.:(0123456789)

(Bielecka 2020; Libânio and Sardinha 2020; Queiroz et al.
2020; Anache et al. 2018).
Some studies have pointed out that climate change is
responsible for reduced water availability and the occurrence
of extreme events in certain regions (Haguigui et al. 2020;
Shah et al. 2020; Nistor et al. 2019). Changes in precipita-
tion patterns increase the frequency of floods and droughts,
and rising temperatures and evapotranspiration can deplete
the groundwater supply (Ali et al. 2020; Condon et al. 2020;
Haro-Monteagudo et al. 2020).
As a way of detecting changes in time series and assess-
ing the presence of increasing or decreasing trends, the
Mann–Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s rho tests have been
commonly used (for example, Gao et al. 2020; Nyikadzino
et al. 2020; Kuriqi et al. 2020; Phuong et al. 2020). Addi-
tionally, the Pettitt test is jointly applied to detect the point
of abrupt change in historical series with identified non-
stationarity (Bannayan et al. 2020; Sattari et al. 2020; Salehi
et al. 2019). A declining trend in the historical series calls
for the need to evaluate its implications in water resource
management to avoid aggravating this scenario and the con-
sequent appearance of conflicts between multiple water uses.
Some authors have used trend and correlation analysis
(Souza and Galvani 2020; Lopes et al. 2020; Ferreira et al.
2020) to analyze the strength of an interaction between
hydrological variables and areas of soil classes and sub-
sequently measure the impacts of these changes on water
resources. These authors detected decreasing trends in
the flow series and increasing trends in deforestation and
anthropization. This phenomenon has been observed over
the last few years in the Brazilian Cerrado, especially in the
western region of Bahia, one of the areas with the highest
agricultural production in the country.
Bahia underwent a dynamic process of economic trans-
formation that started in the first half of the 1980s, driven by
the introduction of modern agriculture with high technology
(Santos et al. 2018). The region is one of the most active
agricultural frontiers in the world and undergoes a pattern of
extensification and intensification (Mantovani et al. 2019).
According to the authors, expansion of the agricultural
area (extensification) was around 440% in the planted area
between 1990 and 2018 and currently totals around 2.3 mil-
lion hectares. The irrigated area went from 17,100 ha in
1990 to 190,900 ha in 2018, with increasing productivity
and number of crops per year (intensification).
Consequently, major changes in the environmental order
have occurred—and are still occurring, directly impacting
socioeconomic development. Thus, occupation of rural
areas and exploitation of natural resources, especially water
resources, occur in a disorderly and predatory manner,
requiring the government to adopt measures that minimize
environmental impacts through the efficient management of
these resources (Bahia 1995). Salmona et al. (2016) stressed
13
International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology
that from 2002 to 2010, more than 1 million hectares of
native vegetation were deforested in the region. Reis and
Fontes (2016) found a significant reduction in the flow of
the Corrente River between 1977 and 2015, while Gon-
çalves et al. (2018) identified a 50% decline between 1980
and 2017 in the water contribution by the base flow of the
Urucuia Aquifer System (SAU) to the Corrente River and its
tributaries due to anthropogenic causes, such as groundwa-
ter and surface water exploration, damming, and irrigation.
The study of Porto-Gonçalves and Chagas (2018) described
the conflicts between multiple uses of water in the region,
resulting in the destruction of irrigation equipment, energy
transmission, and storage sheds on farms in the Corrente
River Basin, with continued predatory capture from water-
courses while the population suffered from water scarcity.
Thus, this work was important to understand the rela-
tionships between changes in trends of time series of land
use and the hydrological parameters of the region, seeking
to understand the dynamics of local transformations and
raising discussions about the causes of water problems.
Given the above, this study assessed, through trend analy-
sis, the patterns of flow, precipitation, and land use in the
Corrente River Basin, west of State of Bahia, Brazil, in the
1980–2019 period, and analyzed the degree of correlation
between changes in these variables. The results of this study
can assist in the sustainable management of water resources
at risk of even more intense and frequent extreme events.
Materials and methods
Study area
The work was carried out in the Corrente River Basin
(BHRC) located in the western region of the state of Bahia
(Fig. 1), occupying an area of around 35,000 ­km2, that is,
approximately 6.2% of the state area and 5.4% of the total
area of the São Francisco River Basin. According to the esti-
mate of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics
(IBGE) (2018), the region is composed of 13 municipali-
ties with 200,000 inhabitants and it is bordered by the Rio
Grande Basin in the north; the Carinhanha River Basin in the
south; the Middle São Francisco Basin in the east; and the
Tocantins River Basin in the west, on the state line between
Bahia and Goiás.
According to Koppen’s climate classification (1948), the
basin is tropical subhumid with summer rains, a well-defined
dry period in winter, and temperatures ranging between 15
and 38 °C. Recorded annual rainfall in the driest regions is
between 600 and 800 mm and up to 1400 mm in the rainiest
regions (Bahia 2015). BHRC vegetation is typical of the
Cerrado, with an area of natural vegetation divided between
areas of savanna and rural formations with extensive areas
International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology

Fig. 1  Location of the study area

of dirty fields. The basin has an elevation between 415 and
1018 m and is under the influence of the Urucuia Aquifer
System, the most important underground reservoir in the São
Francisco River Basin, which is the main basin responsible
for maintaining the flow of rivers in the region in the dry
seasons (Gonçalves et al. 2018).
each station within the main drainage area (station code
45960000) that defines the limits of the Corrente River
Basin.
Precipitation data

Data acquisition and processing
Flow data
The trend analysis was conducted with data from fluvio-
metric stations monitored by the National Water Agency
(ANA), which provides data since 1977 (Table 1). From
the historical series, annual means were calculated for
Data from nine pluviometric stations located inside the
Corrente River Basin were used to calculate mean rain-
fall. Table 2 shows the stations used, with their respec-
tive locations in the sub-basins of the rivers Corren-
tina (45590000), Rio do Meio (45740001), Arrojado
(45770000), and Formoso (45880000). For each drainage
area, mean annual rainfall of all stations was used.

Table 1  Location of Name Code Latitude Longitude Elevation (m) Drainage ­(km2) Period
fluviometric stations in the
Corrente River Basin Corrente 45960001 − 13.29 − 43.90 420 31,000 1977–2019
Correntina 45590000 − 13.34 − 44.63 547 3900 1977–2019
Rio do Meio 45740001 − 13.28 − 44.56 486 7950 1977–2019
Arrojado 45770000 − 13.45 − 44.56 463 5540 1977–2019
Formoso 45880000 − 13.55 − 44.30 441 9550 1977–2019

13
 International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology

Table 2  Location of Name Code Latitude Longitude Elevation Period

pluviometric stations in
the drainage area of each Correntina 1344014 − 13.34 − 44.65 613 1972–2017
fluviometric point
Fazenda Planalto 1346006 − 13.75 − 46.14 957 1981–2019
Mocambo 1344002 − 13.26 − 44.55 520 1977–2017
Fazenda Prainha 1346007 − 13.31 − 46.06 824 1981–2020
Arrojado 1344016 − 13.45 − 44.55 479 1973–2018
Arrojolândia 1345000 − 13.73 − 45.40 678 1981–2019
Coribe 1344028 − 13.82 − 44.46 677 1936–2019
Colônia do Formoso 1344015 − 13.56 − 44.30 447 1973–2018
Gatos 1344013 − 13.70 − 44.61 610 1973–2018

Land use data Mann–Kendall test

The land use maps were obtained from the MapBiomas Pro- Mann–Kendall test is one of the most widely used tests for this
ject—Collection 4.1 of the “Annual series of land use maps purpose in the literature. The test’s null hypothesis is that the
in Brazil” (Souza et al. 2020). The study period was between time series values are independent and distributed identically
1985 and 2018, that is, 35 years of maps were analyzed and in contrast to the alternative hypothesis that there is a linear or
processed, using ArcGis 10.5 software. The areas identi- nonlinear trend in the time series. Statistics can be explained
fied by MapBiomas for the region were Forest Formations, according to Eqs. (1), (2), (3), and (4).
Savanna Formations, Country Formations, and Pasture,
Agriculture, and Urban areas. ∑ ∑
n−1 n
( )
S= sgn xk − xi (1)
The Forest Formations identified by MapBiomas for the i=1 k=t+1
Cerrado region represent vegetation that is predominately
tree species with continuous canopy formation, such as dry where the time series xi comes from i = 1, 2, …, n – 1 and xk
forest, riparian forest, gallery, and cerradão forest, in addi- from k = i + 1, …, n.
tion to seasonal and semi-deciduous forests. Likewise, the
⎧ +1, 𝜃 > 0 ⎫
Savanna Formations are regions with defined arboreal and ⎪ ⎪
shrub-herbaceous strata (Cerrado restricted sense: dense, sgn(𝜃) = ⎨ 0, 𝜃 = 0 ⎬ (2)
typical, thin, and rocky Cerrado). The Grassland Forma- ⎪ −1, 𝜃 < 0 ⎪
⎩ ⎭
tions are defined by the project as areas with a predominance
of herbaceous strata such as dirty, clean, and rocky fields.
Pasture areas represent predominantly planted regions linked ⎧ √S−1 , S > 0 ⎫
to agricultural activity since natural pasture areas are gen- ⎪ var(S) ⎪
Zc = ⎨ 0, S = 0⎬ (3)
erally classified as Grassland Formations. The agriculture ⎪ √S+1 , S < 0 ⎪
areas are occupied with crops with a long vegetative cycle ⎩ var(S) ⎭
(more than a year), which allows successive harvests without Zc is the statistical test and when ||Zc ||>Z1−a∕2 , and when
the need for new planting. The urban areas classified by the Z1−a∕2 is the standard normalized variable and α is the sig-
project are all urbanized areas with a predominance of non- nificance level for the test, Ho will be rejected. The magni-
vegetated surfaces, including roads, avenues, and buildings tude of the trend is described below:
(Mapbiomas 2020).
( )
xi − xj
Trend analysis 𝛽 = Median , ∀j < i (4)
i−j

Trend analysis is a method widely used in hydroclimatic data where 1 < j < i < n . The positive 𝛽 value indicates an
series. Statistically, a trend is a significant change over time increasing trend, while a negative 𝛽 value indicates a
detectable by parametric and nonparametric procedures, decreasing trend.
while the trend analysis of a time series consists of iden-
tifying the trend magnitude and its statistical significance.
In this study, all calculations were performed using the R
software.
Parametric Sen’s estimator method.

13
International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology

Fig. 2  Change in mean annual flow levels over time for the five monitoring points within the Corrente River Basin. A—Rio Arrojado, B—Rio
Correntina, C—Rio Formoso, D—Rio do Meio, and E—Rio Corrente

Detection of trend change of the historical series
with the Pettitt test
Change detection analysis is a statistical tool that can detect
single or multiple variations in time series (Thupeng and
Thekiso 2019). In this sense, a nonparametric test devel-
oped by Pettitt (1979) was applied to locate a point of
sudden change in the historical series. The Pettitt test has
been widely used to detect changes in hydroclimatic series
observed in several studies (Al-Hasani 2020; Xu et al. 2020;
Conte et al. 2019; Das 2019; Zhang et al. 2015).
In the null hypothesis of the trend change, the variables
track the distributions with a similar position parameter
and indicate the absence of change, whereas the alterna-
tive hypothesis indicates the trend change. The Pettitt test is
described by Eq. (5).
Kt = max ||Ut,T || (5)
∑t ∑T � �
where Ut,T = i=1 j=t+1 sgn xi − xj , in which t = 2, 3, 4,
…T.
In the formula, the presence or absence of two examples
x1, …, xt and xt+1, xT in the same sample can be verified
by Ut,T . When reporting the absence of trend change, the
hypothesis is null. The probability of significance of Kt for
p ≤ 0.05 is described in the formula below:

13
 International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology

Table 3  Results of Pettitt Parameter Pettitt p for change point Mann–Kendall test Sen’s slope Spearman’s test
change-point analysis, Kendall’s change
tau, and Spearman’s rho tests year Tau P Rho p
for streamflow, precipitation,
and land use classes (annual) 45960001—Corrente
Streamflow 1999 3.41E−06 − 0.683 1.22E−09 − 0.341 1 1
Precipitation 1992 1.209 − 0.032 0.781 − 0.934 − 0.286 0.077
Agriculture 2001 8.36E−06 0.879 3.02E−13 37.545 − 0.809 7.24E−09
Past 1998 1.79E−05 0.854 1.38E−12 4.941 − 0.822 2.50E−09
Urban areas 1999 1.18E−05 0.857 1.11E−12 0.006 − 0.833 1.02E−09
Forest 2001 8.36E−06 − 0.886 1.94E−13 − 2.789 0.830 1.28E−09
Savanna 2001 8.36E−06 − 0.968 9.37E−16 − 21.070 0.827 1.60E−09
Grassland 2002 1.08E−05 − 0.832 4.91E−12 − 18.975 0.827 1.60E−09
45590000—Correntina
Streamflow 2000 7.02E−05 − 0.635 1.42E−07 − 0.326 1 1
Precipitation 2003 1.110 − 0.020 0.882 − 0.506 − 0.277 0.113
Agriculture 2001 8.36E−06 0.879 3.02E−13 37.545 0.807 8.13E−09
Past 1998 1.79E−05 0.854 1.38E−12 4.941 0.821 2.63E−09
Urban areas 1999 1.18E−05 0.856 1.49E−12 0.007 0.831 1.16E−09
Forest 2001 8.36E−06 − 0.886 1.94E−13 − 2.789 − 0.829 1.44E−09
Savanna 2001 8.36E−06 − 0.968 9.37E−16 − 21.070 − 0.827 2.55E−07
Grassland 2002 1.08E−05 − 0.832 4.91E−12 − 18.975 − 0.774 7.87E−08
45740001—Rio do Meio
Streamflow 2000 0.0001626 − 0.676 2.10E−08 − 0.578 1 1
Precipitation 2011 1.110 − 0.055 0.667 − 2.387 − 0.107 0.545
Agriculture 2001 8.36E−06 0.935 8.90E−15 49.460 0.535 0.001114
Past 1998 4.74E−05 0.835 4.40E−12 9.159 0.582 0.000302
Urban areas 2008 0.000595 0.446 0.0006363 0.001 0.564 0.000519
Forest 2001 8.36E−06 − 0.953 2.74E−15 − 20.316 − 0.590 0.000241
Savanna 1999 1.18E−05 − 0.885 2.15E−13 − 25.158 − 0.595 0.000208
Grassland 2003 1.18E−05 − 0.806 2.29E−11 − 15.285 − 0.436 0.009884
45770000—Arrojado
Streamflow 2000 0.0001626 − 0.717 2.76E−09 − 0.639 1 1
Precipitation 2003 0.720 0.030 0.813 1.678 0.276 0.114
Agriculture 2001 8.36E−06 0.946 4.40E−15 48.642 0.886 3.07E−12
Past 2001 8.36E−06 0.885 2.15E−13 5.288 0.887 2.72E−12
Urban areas 2000 2.11E−05 0.873 7.39E−13 0.020 0.758 2.07E−07
Forest 2004 1.79E−05 − 0.664 3.79E−08 − 6.253 − 0.698 4.41E−06
Savanna 2001 8.36E−06 − 0.874 4.17E−13 − 25.249 − 0.848 2.46E−10
Grassland 2003 1.18E−05 − 0.828 6.67E−12 − 26.753 − 0.832 1.07E−09
45880000—Formoso
Streamflow 2000 4.04E−05 − 0.796 4.18E−11 − 1.279 1 1
Precipitation 1992 1.090 − 0.030 0.813 − 1.233 − 0.371 0.032
Agriculture 2002 9.10E−06 0.804 2.54E−11 33.749 0.836 7.89E−10
Past 1997 5.13E−05 0.765 2.23E−10 9.501 0.860 7.35E−11
Urban areas 2000 9.10E−06 0.700 7.83E−09 0.030 0.758 2.07E−07
Forest 2003 1.18E−05 − 0.590 9.98E−07 − 4.795 − 0.697 4.58E−06
Savanna 2002 1.08E−05 − 0.804 2.54E−11 − 21.084 − 0.816 4.15E−09
Grassland 2006 6.49E−05 − 0.704 5.19E−09 − 19.155 − 0.785 3.98E−08

13
International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology
Fig. 3  Map of the evolution of land use in the Corrente River Basin in a time interval of 10 years
{ }
−6KT2
p ≅ 2 exp
T3 + T2
Spearman’ rho test
The Spearman’s rho test is yet another nonparametric test
used to measure the strength of the relationship between two
variables. In this study, the test was carried out to assess the
correlation between the time series of hydroclimatic vari-
ables and land use classes. The null hypothesis of Spear-
man's rho test is that the data are identically distributed and
independent, while the alternative hypothesis is the exist-
ence of a trend in the time series (Kale and Sönmez 2018).
The relationship between variables is greater the closer their
values are to 1 or − 1, indicating a mutual or inverse growth
relationship. The statistical test is described in the equation
below:
∑
6( d2 )
(6) 𝜌=1− � � (7)
n n2 − 1
where d2 is the difference between the paired classifications
and n is the number of observations. A positive value of 𝜌
suggests an increasing trend in the series, while a negative
value suggests a negative trend.
Results and discussion
Trend in the mean annual flow series
Mean annual flows in the analyzed period are shown in
Fig. 2. There is a sharp decline in their values over time.
This behavior indicates that the series may not be station-
ary due to the sudden changes in their levels. The results of
the Mann–Kendall, Sen’s slope, and Spearman’s rho tests
are shown in Table 3. For all seasons, all the p-values of
the Mann–Kendall test applied to the flow series presented
13
 International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology

13
 International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology
◂Fig. 4  Change in the areas of each land use class over the years for
the four sub-basins within the Corrente River Basin. Each row cor-
responds to a land use class, namely: A Forest, B Savanna, C Grass-
land, D Pasture, E Agriculture, and F Urban
significance at 5% probability; thus, the null hypothesis of
no trend was rejected, with a decreasing trend identified.
Therefore, the series of average annual flow for all analyzed
stations cannot be characterized as stationary. The great-
est decline pointed out by the Mann–Kendall test value was
− 0.796 for the Formoso River Basin, confirmed by the high-
est negative slope value (− 1.279), according to the Sen’s
slope.
Once the trends were identified, the Pettitt test was
applied to detect the point of sudden change. For all four
sub-basins, the year of rupture pointed out by the test was
2000, while for the total drainage area of the study, which is
represented by post 45960000 located in the control section
of the Corrente River, the point of change was 1999. This
difference can be attributed to the fact that the areas not
included in the referred sub-basins contribute only to the
main monitoring section of the basin under study; therefore,
any changes in this area affect only the flow of the main
river. The decline behavior in the mean annual flow values
can be explained by the direct influence of the natural rain-
fall regime and anthropogenic action, such as groundwater
exploration, surface water capture, damming, irrigation, and
soil compaction in recharge areas, according to Gonçalves
et al. (2018). These authors studied the evolution of the con-
tribution of the Urucuia Aquifer System to the São Francisco
River and found that a reduction in the base flow to the Cor-
rente River Basin began in the 1980s. This hypothesis is
reinforced by the study of Pereira (2019), who presented
data on grants for the Corrente River Basin. According to
the author, approximately 3,648,646 ­m3 are removed per day,
which is equivalent to 42,230 L/s.
Land use changes
One of the factors that can lead to non-stationarity of a flow
series is land use and changes in plant cover (Deb et al. 2019;
Zhang et al. 2015). Based on the results, land use of the Cor-
rente River Basin has changed considerably over the past
three decades. Artificial surfaces composed of agricultural
land, pasture, and urbanized areas increased over the years,
rising from 10% between 1985 and 1990 to 31% of the total
area of the basin in 2018. This can be initially attributed to
the fact that the western region of Bahia has become an agri-
business hub with the consequent expansion of the agricul-
tural frontier from the first half of the 1980s, leading to the
implementation of large commodity-exporting companies
and conversion of natural lands to arable areas (Santos et al.
2018). This scenario attracted people from other regions of
the state and country looking for better economic conditions,
resulting in population expansion and consequent increase
in urbanized areas (Santos 2020).
Agricultural land increased from 3.8% (1179 ­km2) in
1985 to 20.2% (6208 ­km2) in 2018, which represents more
than 400% of the evolution of its area since the initial year of
study. Pastures have also increased in recent decades (from
2093 ­km2—6.8% in 1985, to 3358 ­km2—11% in 2018),
however, at a less intense pace than agriculture, which is
explained by the shift in the economy of western Bahia
initially based on extensive cattle ranching and gradually
replaced by modern agriculture (Santos et al. 2018). Areas
in urbanized regions increased 132%.
Finally, changes in the land made up of forest formations
fell from 8.6% (2645 ­km2) in 1985 to 5.8% (1792 ­km2) in
2018; the savanna areas were suppressed and reduced from
51% (15,624 ­km2) to 42% (12,853 ­km3) in the same period;
and the areas of rural formation suffered deforestation since,
in 1985, the areas totaled 9142 ­km2 (29%) and dropped to
6464 ­km2 (21%) in 2018 (Figs. 3, 4; Table 4). Figure 4 con-
tains data on land use changes by sub-basin and shows the
sharp reduction in natural areas and the increase of areas
with anthropogenic landscape transformation.
The trend in annual changes in each class of land use
was assessed using the Mann–Kendall, Spearman’s rho,
and Sen’s slope tests. The reductions in the natural areas
shown in Table 4 are supported by the results of the sta-
tistics in Table 3. The Sen’s slope statistic for the regions
of native vegetation (forest, savanna, and grassland) of all
studied regions showed statistically significant changes in
the series pattern, with declining trends, indicating defor-
estation, which was confirmed by Mann–Kendall and Spear-
man’s rho statistics.
According to the Sen’s slope, the areas with anthropo-
genic influence showed significant growth for all regions,
with emphasis on the regions with agriculture (> 33.75).
Moreover, the region of the Rio de Meio sub-basin showed
the most accentuated growth of this land use class, with
Sen’s slope of 49.46. This growth can be justified because
this sub-basin has the largest areas of agricultural produc-
tion. Accordingly, the Mann–Kendall and Spearman’s tests
indicated significant declining trends in the values of natu-
ral areas and a positive trend in regions with anthropogenic
influence for all areas. According to the Pettitt test, the
point of change of the soil class coincides with the point of
change in the forest and savanna areas for the total drainage
area monitored by station 45960001, providing statistical
evidence that the areas underwent deforestation to expand
agricultural areas. Other studies (Acheampong et al. 2019;
Doggart et al. 2020; Geist and Lambin 2002) have also indi-
cated deforestation and the intensification of agriculture as
13
 International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology

Table 4  Area of each land use Year Forest Savanna Grassland Past Agriculture Urban areas
class ­(km2) and percentage of
total basin area 1985 2645 (8.6%) 15,624 (51%) 9142 (29%) 2093 (6.8%) 1179 (3.8%) 6.4 (0.02%)
1998 2435 (7.9%) 15,337 (50%) 8401 (27%) 2562 (8.3%) 1947 (6.3%) 7.5 (0.02%)
2008 2102 (6.8%) 14,296 (46%) 7620 (25%) 2631 (8.6%) 4032 (13.1%) 9.6 (0.03%)
2018 1792 (5.8%) 12,853 (42%) 6464 (21%) 3358 (11%) 6208 (20.2%) 15.0 (0.05%)
Changes − 32% − 18% − 29% + 60% + 426% + 132%

Fig. 5  Mean annual rainfall for each sub-basin in the period 1980–2019. A—Rio Arrojado, B—Rio Correntina, C—Rio Formoso, D—Rio do
Meio, and E—Rio Corrente

being mainly responsible for land use changes in the last
decades, the most significant of which is associated with
water diversion for the irrigation of cultivated areas that, in
turn, reduces water availability (Milly et al. 2005).
Precipitation series trend
The Sen’s slope statistic did not show any trend in the pre-
cipitation series for the last 35 years in the analyzed regions.
The mean annual rainfall levels of the Correntina, Rio do
Meio, and Formoso sub-basins and total sub-basin area

13
International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology
showed negative variation, although small and not statisti-
cally significant, since p > 0.05, making it possible to accept
the hypothesis that the rainfall series did not show trends.
The Formoso station (code 45880000) was the only one that
showed significance, but its variation was small (− 1233).
Only the Arrojado River sub-basin presented positive Sen’s
slope values, indicating an increasing trend in mean pre-
cipitation; however, in addition to this low variation (1678),
it was not statistically significant (p > 0.05). Similar behav-
ior was observed for the precipitation variable using the
Mann–Kendall test, which showed negative and nonsignifi-
cant values for the Correntina, Rio do Meio, and Formoso
sub-basins and total sub-basin area, and the only positive
value was from the Arrojado River Basin (tau = 0.030),
which is also not statistically significant. The graphs in
Fig. 5 indicate that there is no tendency toward increased or
reduced rainfall in the analyzed areas, in accordance with
the statistics employed.
Correlation analysis between flow/precipitation
and flow/land use
The correlation between the change in flow and changes in
precipitation and each land use class was analyzed using
the Spearman’s rho and Mann–Kendall tests, which allow
identification of the presence or not of a trend in datasets
and determination of a high or low correlation between two
series by analyzing the magnitude of their values. The closer
to 1 or – 1, the greater the correlation between variables,
whereby a negative sign indicates the tendency to decay the
series and a positive sign indicates growth of the compared
series. For all regions, the flow variable in the Spearman’s
rho column has a value of 1 (Table 3), indicating that flow
is the variable to be correlated with all others. The results
show a high correlation between the increase in areas with
anthropogenic landscape transformation and a decline in
streamflow, as well as a great correlation between the reduc-
tion of natural areas and the reduction of water availability.
For the Correntina River Basin, the agriculture, pasture,
and urban areas showed a correlation of 0.80, 0.82, and 0.83
with the flow variable, respectively, while the natural areas
composed of forest, savanna, and fields showed a correlation
of 0.83, 0.83, and 0.77, confirmed by the tau values of over
0.80 for all classes. For the Rio do Meio Basin, the correla-
tions of agriculture, pasture, and urban areas with the flow
were 0.53, 0.58, and 0.56 and 0.94, 0.84, and 0.45 for SR
and MK, respectively, and for the forest, savanna, and field,
0.59, 0.59, and 0.43 (SR) and 0.95, 0.89, and 0.80 (MK),
respectively. Similar behavior was observed for the Arro-
jado and Fomoso sub-basins, with precipitation presenting
a lower correlation (< 0.37—SR, < 0.3—MK) to the land use
classes. For the Arrojado River Basin, higher Spearman’s
rho and Mann–Kendall values were​​ observed for agricultural
(0.88—SR, 0.95—MK), pasture (0.88—SR, 0.89—MK),
and urban areas (0.76—Sr, 0.87—MK), indicating that the
flow was more intensely affected by these variables, with
natural regions showing a high negative relationship for both
tests.
For the Formoso River Basin, the agriculture, pasture,
and urban areas showed a correlation of 0.83, 0.86, and 0.76,
respectively, with the flow variable for SR, and 0.80, 0.76,
and 0.70 for MK, while the natural areas composed of for-
est, savanna, and fields showed a correlation of 0.70/0.59,
0.82/0.80, and 0.78/0.70 (SR/MK). The lower correlation of
the forest class in comparison with the other natural areas
can be explained by the fact that the region integrating the
Formoso River Basin is the smallest forest area, with a pre-
dominance of savanna and grasslands. For all regions, rain-
fall was less correlated with the flow than land use.
Similar studies (Ferreira et al. 2020; Fraga et al. 2020)
also analyzed the relationship between precipitation and
flow, indicating independence between variables over time.
Therefore, reduced flow levels are not caused by precipita-
tion but by the variation in land use that changes the hydro-
logical processes in the region. Furthermore, Souza-Filho
et al. (2016) analyzed four decades of changes in land use
and hydroclimatology in the Itacaiúnas River Basin, south-
east of the Amazon, and concluded that the main change in
LCLU was the conversion of forest to pasture and that LCLU
changes are responsible for changes in hydroclimatology in
the Amazon. Additionally, corroborating the present work,
Souza and Galvani (2020) observed that changes in land
use did not significantly influence the variability of average
rainfall due, above all, to the vegetation characteristics and
size of the studied area, as well as Lopes et al. (2020) con-
cluded that there is no direct relationship between rainfall
and variation in land use classes in the period 1980–2015 in
a municipality in northern Brazil.
Conclusion
This study investigated the trends in the annual time series
for the hydrological data of flow and precipitation, and for
the area values of each land use class for the period between
1985 and 2018. Data from five stations were analyzed, four
of which are drainage points of the sub-basins Correntina,
Arrojado, Formoso, and Rio do Meio within the Corrente
River Basin, which was the fifth analyzed control section
and point. The region integrates the middle portion of the
São Francisco River Basin and contributes to the mainte-
nance of its river levels during periods of drought.
The present study identified that the conversion of
native forests into agricultural areas was the main pro-
cess of change in LCLU. Agricultural areas showed an
upward trend, while natural areas showed a downward
13

trend. According to the statistics employed, significant
decreasing trends were observed in the average annual
flow levels of the main river and its tributaries, and no
significant trends in changes for mean annual precipita-
tion were identified. The correlation analysis showed that
changes in river flow are not correlated with precipitation
but with increased deforestation and the advancement of
agricultural and urban areas across the studied region.
The government must promote multiple uses of water
to meet the needs of the current generation without com-
promising future generations. Agribusiness must sustain-
ably use the available water resources and conserve the
environment to ensure continued access to water for these
businesses and the population. Moreover, the abstraction
authorizations already in place should be revised, taking
into account the current conditions of the watercourses
because, at this rate, the studied water bodies will be at
great risk. Finally, the provision of historical data series
allows the study and application of statistical techniques
that enable robust analyses, reinforcing the importance
of long-term monitoring programs for improved water
resource management. Further studies should extend the
statistical treatment to other important variables and pro-
vide an even more comprehensive scientific understanding
of the hydrological conditions of the study area.
Acknowledgements This study was financed in part by the Coorde-
nação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—Brasil
(CAPES)—Finance Code 001.
Author’s contribution All authors contributed to the study concep-
tion and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis
were performed by L.L.F., L.F.deS., L.S.daS., R.M.deJ., C.A.S.S., and
F.A.R. The first draft of the manuscript was written by L.L.F. and
all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All
authors read and approved the final manuscript. Conceptualization:
L.L.F.; Methodology: L.L.F., L.F.deS. and C.A.S.S.; Formal analysis
and investigation: L.L.F.; Writing—original draft preparation: L.L.F.;
Writing—review and editing: L.F.deS., L.S.daS., R.M.deJ., C.A.S.S.
and F.A.R.; Supervision: F.A.R. and C.A.S.S.
Funding This research was funded by Coordenação de Aper-
feiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—Brasil (CAPES) through
payment of master's level salary.
Availability of data and materials The datasets generated during and/or
analyzed during the current study are available in the Agência Nacional
de Águas (ANA) repository, link [http://​www.​snirh.​gov.​br/​hidro​web/​
aprese​ ntaca​ o]; Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) repository,
link [https://​bdmep.​inmet.​gov.​br/]; Agritempo repository, link [https://​
www.​agrit​empo.​gov.​br/​agrit​empo/​index.​jsp]; and MapBiomas, link
[https://​mapbi​omas.​org/].
Code availability (software application or custom code) Software R
Studio.
13
International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology
Declarations
Conflict of interest All authors declare that they have no conflict of
interest.
References
Acheampong EO, Macgregor CJ, Sloan S, Sayer J (2019) Deforestation
is driven by agricultural expansion in Ghana’s forest reserves. Sci
Afr. https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​sciaf.​2019.​e00146
Ali SM, Khalid B, Akhter A et al (2020) Analyzing the occurrence of
floods and droughts in connection with climate change in Punjab
province, Pakistan. Nat Hazards 103:2533–2559. https://​doi.​org/​
10.​1007/​s11069-​020-​04095-5
Al-Hasani AA (2020) Trend analysis and abrupt change detection of
streamflow variations in the lower Tigris River Basin, Iraq. J Int
J River Basin Manag. https://​doi.​org/​10.​1080/​15715​124.​2020.​
17236​03
Anache JAA, Flanagan DC, Srivastava A, Wendland EC (2018) Land
use and climate change impacts on runoff and soil erosion at
the hillslope scale in the Brazilian Cerrado. Sci Total Environ
622:140–151. https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​scito​tenv.​2017.​11.​257
Bahia (2015) Bacia do Rio Corrente—Perfil Sintético. Governo da
Bahia, Bahia
Bahia (1995) Plano Diretor da Bacia Hidrográfica do rio Corrente.
http://​www.​ana.​gov.​br/​Acoes​Admin​istra​tivas/​CDOC/​docs/​pla-
nos_​diret​ores/​Bahia/​pdfs/​PDRH_​BACIA_​RIO_​CORRE​NTE_​
VOLUME_​X_​DOC_S%​C3%​8DNTE​SE.​pdf. Accessed 22 July
2020
Bannayan M, Asadi S, Nouri M et al (2020) Time trend analysis of
some agroclimatic variables during the last half century over
Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 140:839–857. https://​doi.​org/​10.​1007/​
s00704-​020-​03105-7
Bielecka E (2020) GIS spatial analysis modeling for land use change.
A bibliometric analysis of the intellectual base and trends. Geo-
sciences. https://​doi.​org/​10.​3390/​geosc​ience​s1011​0421
Condon LE, Atchley AL, Maxwell RM (2020) Evapotranspiration
depletes groundwater under warming over the contiguous United
States. Nat Commun. https://d​ oi.o​ rg/1​ 0.1​ 038/s​ 41467-0​ 20-1​ 4688-0
Conte LC, Bayer DM, Bayer FM (2019) Bootstrap Pettitt test for detect-
ing change points in hydroclimatological data: case study of Itaipu
Hydroelectric Plant, Brazil. Hydrol Sci J 64:1312–1326. https://​
doi.​org/​10.​1080/​02626​667.​2019.​16324​61
Das S (2019) Four decades of water and sediment discharge
records in Subarnarekha and Burhabalang basins: an approach
towards trend analysis and abrupt change detection. Sustain
Water Resour Manag 5:1665–1676. https://​doi.​org/​10.​1007/​
s40899-​019-​00326-1
Doggart N, Morgan-Brown T, Lyimo E et al (2020) Agriculture is the
main driver of deforestation in Tanzania. Environ Res. https://d​ oi.​
org/​10.​25412/​iop.​11395​185.​v1
Deb P, Kiem AS, Willgoose G (2019) Mechanisms influencing non-
stationarity in rainfall–runoff relationships in southeast Australia.
J Hydrol 571:749–764. https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​jhydr​ol.​2019.​02.​
025
Ehlers RS (2007) Análise de séries temporais. UFPR, Curitiba
Ferreira FLV, Rodrigues LN, Almeida LT, Teixeira DB (2020) Tendên-
cia em séries hidrológicas e de mudanças no uso e cobertura da
terra da bacia hidrográfica do rio Guanhães, Minas Gerais. Braz
J Anim Environ Res 3:447–459. https://​doi.​org/​10.​34188/​bjaer​
v3n2-​004
International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology
Fraga MDS, Abreu MC, Reis GB, Tozi T, Pinheiro SAR (2020)
Análise de tendência em séries históricas de precipitação e
vazão na UGRH2 Piracicaba, Minas Gerais. Rev Ibero-Am
Ciências Ambient 11:136–144. https://​doi.​org/​10.​6008/​cbpc2​
179-​6858.​2020.​002.​0016
Gao F, Wang Y, Chen X, Yang W (2020) Trend analysis of rainfall
time series in Shanxi Province, Northern China (1957–2019).
Water. https://​doi.​org/​10.​3390/​w1209​2335
Geist HJ, Lambin EF (2002) Proximate causes and underlying driving
forces of tropical deforestation tropical forests are disappearing
as the result of many pressures, both local and regional, acting
in various combinations in different geographical locations. Bio-
science 52:143–150. https://​doi.​org/​10.​1641/​0006-​3568(2002)​
052[0143:​PCAUDF]​2.0.​CO;2
Gharbia S, Gill L, Johnston P, Pilla F (2020) GEO-CWB: GIS-based
algorithms for parametrising the responses of catchment dynamic
water balance regarding climate and land use changes. Hydrology.
https://​doi.​org/​10.​3390/​hydro​logy7​030039
Gonçalves RD, Engelbrecht BZ, Chang HK (2018) Evolução da con-
tribuição do Sistema Aquífero Urucuia para o Rio São Francisco,
Brasil. Rev Águas Subterrân 32:1–10. https://​doi.​org/​10.​14295/​
ras.​v32i1.​28916
Haguigui AT, Darabi H, Shahedi K, Solaimani K, Klove B (2020) A
scenario-based approach for assessing the hydrological impacts
of land use and climate change in the Marboreh Watershed,
Iran. Environ Model Assess 25:41–57. https://​doi.​org/​10.​1007/​
s10666-​019-​09665-x
Haro-Monteagudo D, Palazón L, Beguería S (2020) Long-term sustain-
ability of large water resource systems under climate change: a
cascade modeling approach. J Hydrol. https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​
jhydr​ol.​2020.​124546
IBGE—Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (2020) Estima-
tivas da população. https://​www.​ibge.​gov.​br/​estat​istic​as/​socia​
is/​popul​acao/​9103-​estim​ativas-​de-​popul​acao.​html. Accessed 5
February 2021
Jehanzaib M, Shah AS, Yoo J, Kim TW (2020) Investigating the
impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrological
drought using non-stationary approaches. J Hydrol. https://​doi.​
org/​10.​1016/j.​jhydr​ol.​2020.​125052
Kale S, Sönmez AY (2018) Trend analysis of mean monthly, seasonally
and annual streamflow of Daday Stream in Kastamonu, Turkey.
Mar Sci Technol Bull 7:60–67. https://​doi.​org/​10.​33714/​masteb.​
418234
Kuriqi A, Ali R, Pham QB et al (2020) Seasonality shift and streamflow
flow variability trends in central India. Acta Geophys 68:1461–
1475. https://​doi.​org/​10.​1007/​s11600-​020-​00475-4
Lopes LNA, Lira BRP, Teixeira LCGM, Costa LS, Sousa AAN (2020)
Análise da variabilidade da precipitação frente às mudanças no
uso da terra no município de Tucuruí-PA. Res Soc Dev. https://​
doi.​org/​10.​33448/​rsd-​v9i3.​272
Libânio CR, Sardinha DS (2020) Transporte anual de sedimentos e
nutrientes do rio Muzambo, tributário do reservatório de Furnas
(MG). Rev Mineira De Recursos Hídricos 1:1–20
Liu Q, Liang L, Cai Y, Wang X, Li C (2020) Assessing climate and
land-use change impacts on streamflow in a mountainous catch-
ment. J Water Clim Change 11:503–513. https://​doi.​org/​10.​2166/​
wcc.​2018.​234
Lv H, Yang L, Zhou J, Zhang X, Wu W, Li Y, Jiang D (2020) Water
resource synergy management in response to climate change in
China: from the perspective of urban metabolism. Resour Conserv
Recycl. https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​resco​nrec.​2020.​105095
Mantovani EC, Silva Júnior AG, Costa MH, Marques EAG, Silva
Júnior GC, Pruski FF (2019) Estudo do Potencial Hídrico da
Região Oeste da Bahia: Quantificação e Monitoramento da Dis-
ponibilidade dos Recursos do Aquífero Urucuia e Superficiais
nas Bacias dos rios Grande, Corrente e Carinhanha. Editora da
UFV, Viçosa
Mapbiomas (2020) Descrição das classes. https://​mapbi​omas.​org/​
pages/​downl​oads. Accessed 22 July 2020
Milly PCD, Betancourt J, Falkenmark M, Hirsch RM, Kundzewicz ZW,
Lettenmaier DP, Stouffer RJ (2008) Stationarity is dead: whither
water management? Science 319:573–574. https://​doi.​org/​10.​
1126/​scien​ce.​11519​15
Nistor MM, Rai PK, Dugesar V, Mishra VN, Singh P, Arora A, Kumra
VK, Carebia LA (2019) Climate change effect on water resources
in Varanasi district. Meteorological Application, India. https://d​ oi.​
org/​10.​1002/​met.​1863
Nyikadzinoa B, Chitakira M, Muchuru S (2020) Rainfall and runoff
trend analysis in the Limpopo river basin using the Mann Kend-
all statistic. Phys Chem Earth. https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​pce.​2020.​
102870
Pereira IB (2019) Os desafios da gestão das águas pelo estado nas
relações conflituosas da bacia hidrográfica do rio Corrente. Uni-
versidade Federal da Bahia, Monography
Pettitt AN (1979) A non-parametric approach to the changepoint prob-
lem. Appl Stat 28:126–135. https://​doi.​org/​10.​2307/​23467​29
Porto-Gonçalves CW, Chagas SB (2018) Os pivôs da discórdia e a
digna raiva: uma análise dos conflitos por terra, água e território
em Correntina, BA. Bom Jesus, Bahia
Pousa R, Costa MH, Pimenta FM, Fontes VC, Brito VFA, Castro M
(2019) Climate change and intense irrigation growth in western
Bahia, Brazil: the urgent need for hydroclimatic monitoring.
Water. https://​doi.​org/​10.​3390/​w1105​0933
Phuong DND, Tram VNQ, Nhat TT, Ly TD, Loi NK (2020) Hydro-
meteorological trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall and
innovative-Şen methodologies: a case study. Int J Glob Warm.
https://​doi.​org/​10.​1504/​IJGW.​2020.​105385
Queiroz HM, Ferreira OT, Taniguchi CAK, Barcellos D, Nascimento
JC, Nóbrega GN, Otero XL, Artur AG (2020) Nitrogen minerali-
zation and eutrophication risks in mangroves receiving shrimp
farming effluents. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27:34941–34950.
https://​doi.​org/​10.​1007/​s11356-​020-​09720-1
Reis PAG, Fontes AS (2016) Investigação da vazão de contribuição
do rio Corrente (BA) para o Rio São Francisco frente aos usos
consuntivos e condição climática da região. Anais do I SBHSF,
Juazeiro
Sabbaghi MA, Nazari M, Araghinejad S, Soufizadeh S (2020) Eco-
nomic impacts of climate change on water resources and agri-
culture in Zayandehroud river basin in Iran. Agric Water Manag.
https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​agwat.​2020.​106323
Salas JD, Obeysekera J (2014) Revisiting the concepts of return period
and risk for nonstationary hydrologic extreme events. J Hydrol
Eng. https://​doi.​org/​10.​1061/​(ASCE)​HE.​1943-​5584.​00008​20
Salehi S, Dehghani M, Mortazavi SM, Singh VP (2019) Trend analysis
and change point detection of seasonal and annual precipitation
in Iran. Int J Climatol 40:1–16. https://​doi.​org/​10.​1002/​joc.​6211
Salmona YB, Paiva AO, Matricardi EAT (2016) Estimativas futuras
de desmatamento e emissões de C ­ O2 equivalente no oeste baiano.
Rev Bras Cartogr 68:1385–1395
Santos AS (2020) O processo de urbanização e as novas dinâmicas no
campo no oeste baiano. Universidade de Campinas, Thesis
Santos CAS, Rocha FA, Ramos TB, Alves LM, Mateus M, Oliveira
RP, Neves R (2019) Using a hydrologic model to assess the per-
formance of regional climate models in a semi-arid watershed in
Brazil. Water. https://​doi.​org/​10.​3390/​w1101​0170
Santos CAP, Sano EE, Santos PS (2018) Fronteira agrícola e a
dinâmica de uso e ocupação dos solos no oeste da Bahia. ACTA
Geogr 12:17–32. https://​doi.​org/​10.​5654/​acta.​v12i28.​4385
Sattari MT, Mirabbasi R, Jarhan S et al (2020) Trend and abrupt
change analysis in water quality of Urmia Lake in comparison
13

with changes in lake water level. Environ Monit Assess. https://​
doi.​org/​10.​1007/​s10661-​020-​08577-8
Shah MI, Khan A, Akbar TA, Hassan QK, Khan AJ, Dewan A (2020)
Predicting hydrologic responses to climate changes in highly gla-
cierized and mountainous region Upper Indus Basin. Royal Soc.
https://​doi.​org/​10.​1098/​rsos.​191957
Souza CM, Shimbo JZ, Rosa MR et al (2020) Reconstructing three
decades of land use and land cover changes in brazilian biomes
with landsat archive and earth engine. Remote Sens. https://​doi.​
org/​10.​3390/​rs121​72735
Souza V, Galvani E (2020) Alterações no uso da terra entre 1987 e
2013 e a variabilidade hidrológica no médio curso da bacia do rio
Jacaré Guaçú (SP). Rev Brasil Climatol 26:249–264
Souza-Filho PWM, Souza EB, Júnior ROS, Nascimento WR Jr, Men-
donça BRV, Guimarães JTF, Dall’agnol R, Siqueira JO (2016)
Four decades of land-cover, land-use and hydroclimatology
changes in the Itacaiúnas River watershed, southeastern Amazon.
13
View publication stats
International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology
J Environ Manag 167:175–184. https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​jenvm​
an.​2015.​11.​039
Thupeng WM, Thekiso TB (2019) Changepoint analysis: a practical
tool for detecting abrupt changes in rainfall and identifying peri-
ods of historical droughts: a case study of Botswana. Bull Math
Stat Res 7:33–46. https://​doi.​org/​10.​33329/​bomsr.​74.​33
Vasco AN, Netto AOA, Pruski FF (2017) Impactos das barragens na
disponibilidade hídrica do Nordeste do Brasil. Recursos Hídricos
38:47–58. https://​doi.​org/​10.​5894/​rh38n2-​cti1
Xu H, Ren Y, Zheng H, Ouyang Z, Jiang B (2020) Analysis of runoff
trends and drivers in the Haihe River Basin, China. Int J Environ
Res Public Health. https://​doi.​org/​10.​3390/​ijerp​h1705​1577
Zhang A, Zheng C, Wang S, Yao Y (2015) Analysis of streamflow vari-
ations in the Heihe River Basin, northwest China: trends, abrupt
changes, driving factors and ecological influences. J Hydrol Reg
Stud 3:106–124. https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​ejrh.​2014.​10.​005