A N I N D E P E N D E NT P R E S E N TAT I O N O F I P CC CO N C LUS I O N S BY J O H N L A N G

I N T E R G O V E R N M E N T A L P A N E L O N C L I M A T E C H A N G E

T H E S C I E N C E O F C L I M AT E C H A N G E
S I X T H A S S E S S M E N T R E P O R T ( A R 6 )

I II III SYR

THE IPCC

A U N b o dy o f g overn m en t rep resen tat ives th a t

co m m issio n s ex p er t rep o r t s o n th e state o f th e clima te .

A S S E S S M E NT R E P O RTS I N T E R G O V E R N M E N TA L V O LU N T E E R E X P E R T S

Massive systematic reviews of all IPCC report summaries are Hundreds of scientists (and other
the world’s climate knowledge, endorsed by all 195 member experts) contribute thousands
every seven years or so nations before publication of hours to IPCC reports

ME NTS CA NN OT
ME AN ING GOVE RN
GS TH EY HAVE
IGN OR E TH E FIN DIN
RS ED
TH EM SE LVE S EN DO

SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT (AR6)

2021 - 2022
TH E IPCC SE LEC TE
D W H AT I T I S
90
72 1 EX PE RTS FR OM
ICI PAT E
NATIO NS TO PART

The IPCC provides objective It synthesises

information about climate existing science
change to governments and analysis

THE SCIENCE
Assesses the scientific basis
of the climate system and
how we are changing it

I I P CC
14,000
C I TAT I ON S ‘ WO R K I N G G R O U P S ’

234 T H E I M PA C T S Assessment Reports are prepared

EXPE RTS
by three IPCC Working Groups.
Assesses the vulnerability of
Each publishes a report:
human and natural systems,
and options for adapting
I II III

II

OUR OPTIONS
Options for mitigation, reducing
emissions and removing GHGs
from the atmosphere

W H AT I T ’ S N O T III

SYNTHESIS
The IPCC is neutral on It does not
policy — it does not tell publish its own Summary of the three reports +
world leaders what to do original research any ‘Special Reports’ that fell
in this reporting cycle

-BY -WOR D
‘AD OP TE D’ WO RD
N
S IN CO NS ULTAT IO
BY GOVE RN ME NT SYR
AU TH OR S
WI TH TH E RE PO RT

Special
Reports are
interdisciplinary
C O M M U N I C AT I N G U N C E R TA I N T Y
assessments of
specific issues:
For all findings, IPCC working groups use ‘calibrated language’ to convey the
likelihood (’very likely’) or level of confidence (‘very high’) in their synthesis conclusions.
SR

G LO B A L

LIKELIHOOD CONFIDENCE WA R M I N G
OF 1.5°C
( P R O BA B I L I ST I C) ( Q UA L I TAT I V E)

A quantitative measure of certainty in a finding based on Asessing the level of confidence

statistical observations, model results, expert surveys etc. involves considering two dimensions
SR

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% C L I M AT E

CHANGE AND
V I R T UA L LY C E R TA I N LAND

E X T R E M E LY L I K E LY

V E RY L I K E LY

L I K E LY
SR
A B O U T A S L I K E LY A S N OT

U N L I K E LY OCEAN AND
C RYOS P H E R E
V E RY U N L I K E LY

E X T R E M E LY U N L I K E LY

E XC E P T I O N A L LY U N L I K E LY
T YPE , QUALIT Y, DEG R EE O F
AMOUNT OR INTERNAL AG R EEMENT ABOUT

CONSISTENCY OF E VIDENCE T HE E VI DENC E

S I X T H A S S E S S M E N T R E P O R T C YC L E

I
SR

G LO B A L
S ECO N D FO U R T H WA R M I N G II AR6 III
OF 1.5°C
I P CC ASSESSMENT ASSESSMENT
E S TA B L I S H E D REPORT REPORT S

1988 1990 1995 2001 2007 2013-14 2015 2018 2019 2021-22

E
TH E IPCC WI NS TH
AC E PR IZE
NO BE L PE SR SR
FIRST THIRD FIFTH PA R I S
C L I M AT E
AG R E E M E N T OCEAN AND
ASSESSMENT ASSESSMENT ASSESSMENT CHANGE
C RYO S P H E R E
AND LAND
REPORT REPORT REPORT

PACT
GLOB AL CL IM AT E
TIO NS
SIG NE D BY 195 NA

W H AT T H E S C I E N C E T E L L S U S

The world is heating up because carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) are accumulating in
the atmosphere, meaning less heat can escape to space. The growing thickness of this extra planetary blanket
has caused widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, biosphere, cryosphere and ocean.

Climate change is real, it’s caused by us and it’s bad. But — it can be fixed.

, TH E BE ST
UB LE FR OM 18 50
IF CO 2 LEV ELS DO
1. It’s real EST IM AT E IS WE ’LL
EV EN TUAL LY HE AT
UP BY AB OU T 3°C .
CH HIG HE R
Y, IT CO UL D BE MU
IF WE GE T UN LU CK

ELS OF CO 2
AT MO SP HE RIC LEV
C O 2 : ‘ I ’ M C U M U L AT I V E ’ AR E AL RE ADY HIG
HE R TH AN AT AN
Y

2 MI LLI ON YE AR S +4°C
TIM E IN AT LEA ST DO UB LE 18 50 LEV
ELS

CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2

28 0 p p m 3 70 p p m 39 0 p p m 41 3 p p m ~440ppm 560ppm

1850 2000 2010 2020 2030 20??

(PRE-INDUSTRIAL)
+3°C

TH E WE IGH T
Humans emit about 40 billion tonnes of EQ UIVAL EN T TO
01 00 TITAN ICS
OF AB OU T 863,0
CO2 into the atmosphere every year.

Since 1750, we’ve emitted over 53 MI LLI ON TITAN

ICS
02
2 ,500 billion tonnes of CO2.
+2°C Paris Agreement goals:

“Hold warming to well below 2°C”

In 2021, the land + ocean absorbed about 56% of human CO2 emissions, but
03
this proportion will decrease the more CO2 we emit into the atmosphere.
“Pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C”

RY LIK ELY
WI LL STI LL BE HE AT ING WI LL VE
AN D AB OU T 20 %
But — about 40% of the CO2 we emit today E EARLY 20 30 s”
0 YE AR S! EX CE ED 1.5 °C IN “TH
04 UP TH ER E IN 10 ,00
will still be in the atmosphere in 100 years.
+1°C

Because CO2 is stubborn and accumulates in the atmosphere, in order to stabilise Earth’s
05 Heating to date?
temperature at any level, we have to take human CO2 emissions to net zero.
+1.2°C (Increasing by 0. 2°C per decade)

OT H E R G H G s

Greenhouse gases like methane

(CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) need NET ZERO CO2
“strong, rapid and sustained”
reductions, too
Where the sum of human-caused CO2 emissions
and removals is zero. To get to net zero, we need to:

Urgently turn down the Match any remaining inflow with an

01 02
H UM A N CO2 EMISSIONS TAP equal outflow using CO2 REMOVALS
NLY PO SS IBL E UN PR OV EN AT SC
AL E
AS FAR AS HU MA

Reducing flow requires

steep emission reductions

HUMAN N ATUR AL

DI STU R B ANC E C ARBON

C YCLE

CO2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE

CO2 R E M OVA L S D R A I N LAND AND OCEAN DR AIN

(U N P ROV E N AT SC A L E)

‘UNPRECEDENTED’ CHANGES

Global heating is leading to unprecedented and irreversible changes. As a 1.5°C-hotter world approaches, it’s the
temperature extremes that will affect people and nature most. A 1.5°C world is more different than it sounds.

The last decade was We’re heating at a rate

likely the hottest in unprecedented in at least

125,000 THE HUMAN-ENHANCED 2,000

YE ARS GREENHOUSE EFFECT YE AR S
WE RE
ER TE MP ER AT UR ES
BACK TH EN , HOTT
L VARIATIO NS
MU LTI -M ILL EN NIA
CAUS ED BY SLOW
CYCL ES )
(M ILA NKOV ITC H
IN EART HS ’S OR BIT

C H A N G E I N G LO B A L S U R FAC E T E M P E R AT U R E
PA L EO C L I M AT E AR C H I V E S ( 1 – 1 8 5 0 ) a n d O B S E RV E D ( 1 8 5 0 - 2 0 2 0 )
2°C

1.5°C

1°C

Temperature
anomaly
0.5°C
relative to
1850–1900
average 0°C

-0.5°C

-1°C

1 500 1000 1500 1850 2020

Year (Common Era)

The link between human-caused heating and increasingly severe extreme weather is now “an established fact”.

HOT EXTREMES HEAV Y RAINFALL TROPICAL CYCLONES

Virtually certain that “the Likely increased since 1950 Likely that “occurrence has increased
frequency and intensity of hot and has been increasing over the last four decades”, as well as
extremes have increased” faster since the 1980s heavier associated precipitation

VE S HAVE OR AT IO N TT ER IT GE TS ,
MARIN E HE AT WA TAT IO N AN D EVAP FO R EV ERY 1°C HO
AV ER AG E PR EC IPI
DO UB LED IN T
“A PP ROXIM AT ELY , VE RY LIK ELY WI
TH CA N HO LD AB OU
AR E INC RE AS ING TH E AT MO SP HE RE
CE TH E 198 0s R 1°C VA PO UR
FR EQ UE NC Y” SIN A RA NG E OF 1-3
% PE 7% MO RE WATE R

D ROUGHTS TEMPER ATURE OVER L AN D C L I MAT E ZO N ES

Decreases in water Since 1850 it’s warmed 1.59°C Climate zones have shifted
availability due to increased over land, much more than polewards in both hemispheres.
evapotranspiration over the ocean (0.88°C) Species are on the move...

TH E GLOB AL
NO ON E LIV ES IN
GIO NS
HIG H LAT ITU DE RE
AV ER AG E… MA NY
2°C
RM ED MO RE TH AN
HAVE AL RE ADY WA

“ H U M A N - I N D U C E D C L I M AT E C H A N G E I S
A L R E A DY A F F E C T I N G M A N Y W E AT H E R
A N D C L I M AT E E X T R E M E S I N E V E R Y The volume of ice lost every

R E G I O N A C R O S S T H E G LO B E ” day from the Greenland and

Antarctic ice sheets could fill
I P CC , 2021

300,000
OLYMPIC SWIMMING POOLS

The rate of ice sheet

loss has increased

400%
IC SE A ICE
SPACE S LIK E AR CT
MA SS IVE WH ITE
TIN G SU NL IGH T
SE RV ICE BY RE LEC
PE RFOR M A VITAL
TE D INTO HE AT.
FO RE IT’ S CO NV ER
in just 20 years BACK TO SPACE BE
IM AT E CH AN GE
ACCE LER AT ES CL
AN Y LO SS OF ICE
Sea-level has increased by 0.20

metres in the last 120 years, and

it’s accelerating... fast.

Late summer Arctic sea ice
area is smaller than at any
Sea levels are rising due to:
time in at least the past

1,000
⁕ Thermal expansion: 50%

⁕ Glacier ice loss: 22%

YEARS
⁕ Ice sheet loss: 20% WATE R EX PA ND S

⁕ Other: 8% AS IT HE ATS UP

The ocean has The ocean has warmed The ocean has
absorbed about faster over the past century absorbed about
than at any time in the last
25% 90%
of humanity’s CO2
11,000 of the excess heat
emissions to date YE AR S caused by humans

AR E HIG HE ST IN
WARM ING RATE S
FIE S AS IT TA KE S
TH E OC EA N AC IDI OF TH E OC EA N
G TH E UP PE R 70 0m
VE RS ELY AF FEC TIN
UP MO RE CO 2, AD
RA L RE EFS
S LIK E CO “IT ’S HOT IN HE RE
”
MARIN E CR EATU RE

“A LOT”

G LO B A L O C E A N H E AT CO N T E N T
( Re l a t i v e to 1 9 5 8 - 1 9 6 0 a v e ra g e )

400

350

300

Zettajoules 250

(billion trillion
200
joules)
150

100

50

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Year
E OC EA N
ISE HE AT ING , TH
EV EN IF WE STA BIL
A MI LLE NIU M
RB ING HE AT FO R
WI LL KE EP AB SO
2. It’s us

“It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land.” The best estimate of the
human contribution to modern heating is around 100%. Humans have their fingerprints all over climate change.

The increase in global surface temperature has been largest since 1980, a time during which solar activity
has been decreasing. Compared with human drivers, “there has been negligible long-term influence from
solar activity and volcanoes.” Aggregated contributions to 2010–2019 heating relative to 1850–1900:

-1°C -0.5°C 0°C 0.5°C 1°C 1.5°C 2°C

TOTAL H UMAN IN FLUE N CE

GRE E N H OUSE GA SES (GH Gs)

OTHER HUMAN DRIVERS

(MA I N LY A I R P OLLUT I ON)

SOL AR AND VOLCANI C D RIVERS

I NT ERNAL VARI AB I L IT Y

ELY RA NG E
‘W HIS KE RS ’ = LIK

Carbon-13 Carbon-12
Measured decreases in the fraction (¹³C/¹²C) of types of carbon (isotopes) in
the atmosphere and a small decrease in atmospheric oxygen levels show
/
that the rise in CO2 is overwhelmingly from the combustion of fossil fuels.
CO 2
IDE NT IFY WH ER E
SC IEN TISTS CA N S
TIO NS E.G . IF IT’
ING TH ES E FR AC
‘CO ME S FR OM ’ US IL FU ELS )
(FO SS
/ PLA NT MATT ER
FR OM OR GA NIC

As the lower atmosphere ( TROPOSPHERE ) heats up due to an enhanced greenhouse effect, the upper
atmosphere ( STRATOSPHERE ) is cooling as a consquence: “The TROPOSPHERE has warmed since at least the
1950s, and it is virtually certain that the STRATOSPHERE has cooled.”

The global heating driven by human emissions of G H Gs is partially masked by human-emitted

PART I CUL AT E POL LUTIO N (sunlight-reflecting atmospheric particles like sulfur dioxide that cars

and factories belch out). These have a substantial cooling effect on the planet, of roughly 0.4°C.

3. It’s bad A n d it’s go in g to ge t wo rse.

Temperatures will continue to increase until mid-century under all scenarios. In the absence of deep reductions in CO2
emissions, 1.5°C and 2°C will be exceeded this century. Many changes are baked in for thousands of years. Changes to
global sea level, the ocean and ice sheets are “irreversible” on timescales relevant to human societies.

SEA-LEVEL OCEAN GL ACIERS

Over the next 2,000 years, mean “Changes are irreversible on Under a best case scenario,
sea-level will eventually rise: centennial to millennial time scales glaciers will lose 18% of their
in global ocean temperature, ocean current mass by 2100
⁕ At 5°C: 19-22 metres acidification and deoxygenation”

⁕ At 2°C: 2-6 metres

⁕ At 1.5°C: 2-3 metres

“It will remain elevated for

thousands of years” U IN G
CO N T IN
D U E TO
AR M IN G ICE SHEE TS
CEAN W
D E E P -O
M E LT
-S H E E T
A N D IC E At sustained levels of heating between 3°C
and 5°C, “ice sheets will be lost irreversibly
over multiple millennia”:

⁕ West Antarctic Ice Sheet: complete loss

⁕ Greenland Ice Sheet: near-complete loss

WO R L D S A PA R T : P O S S I B L E F U T U R E S

The IPCC used five illustrative scenarios – 'Shared Socioeconomic Pathways' or SSPs – to investigate how emissions and heating
may increase. In all of them, CO2 increases out to about 2040. What happens after that depends on choices we make now.

TIO NA L
AR IO : WI TH CU RR EN T NA RE VE RS AL OF
A BE ST CA SE SC EN RO UG HLY IN LIN E
RE EM EN T
TH E PARIS AG CL IM AT E PO LIC IES
NE T ZE RO CO 2 BY
20 55 PLE DG ES UN DE R

PROJEC TIONS
VERY LOW LOW INTERMEDIATE HIGH VERY HIGH
(G HG E M I S S I O NS)

SSPs: S S P 1 - 1 .9 SSP 2-2.6 SSP 2-4.5 S S P 3 - 7. 0 SSP 5-8.5

YE AR WE HALVE
2035 2050 2087 WE DON’T NO WAY JOSÉ
CO2 EMISSIONS
R YE AR
LIO N TO NN ES PE
TO AB OU T 20 BIL

YE AR WE PA SS
2035 2032 2030 2030 2027
1. 5°C GOAL

EXTREMELY EXTREMELY EXTREMELY LIKELY WOULD WOULD

YE AR WE PA SS
UNLIKELY TO BE UNLIKELY TO BE TO BE EXCEEDED BE EXCEEDED BE EXCEEDED
2°C GOAL
EXCEEDED EXCEEDED (~2052) (~2046) (~2041)

TEMP. INCRE A SE
1.6°C 1.7 °C 2.0°C 2.1°C 2.4°C
BY 2050
WA IT FO R IT …

TEMP. INCRE A SE
1.4°C 1.8°C 2.7 °C 3.6°C 4.4°C
BY 2100
LOW 1.5 °C
… DR OP S BACK BE
ER SH OOT’
AF TE R SM AL L ‘OV

TEMP. INCRE A SE
— — 2.3 - 4.6°C — 6.6 - 14.1°C
BY 2 300
ER AT UR ES ER AT UR ES
SIM ILAR TO TE MP SIM ILAR TO TE MP
AG O (2. 5 - 4°C ) S AG O (10 - 18° C)
3 MI LLI ON YE AR S 50 MI LLI ON YE AR

CO2 EMISSSIONS
TAKEN UP BY L AND 70% 65% 54% 44% 38%
+ OCE AN SINKS
Overall, the carbon cycle is expected to *weaken* as a result of increasing temperatures, leading
to more CO2 emissions remaining in the atmosphere and less being absorbed by the land and ocean.
That’s not good news because without the land and ocean doing its thing (generously absorbing about
half of the CO2 we emit today) climate change would already be around twice as bad as it is now.

SE A-LE VEL RISE

37 - 86cm 46 - 99cm 0.66 - 1.33m — 0.98 - 1.88m
BY 21 50
5 ME TR ES BY
SE A LEV EL RIS E OF
RU LED OU T”
215 0 “C AN NOT BE

While the VERY HIGH scenario is unlikely as the rate of annual CO2 emissions slows down — as we transition away
from fossil fuels and decouple emissions from economic growth — the CO2 levels it contains “cannot be ruled out”.
This is because as we heat up, there’s an increasing risk we open a Pandora’s Box of climate feedbacks...

CLIMATE FEEDBACKS

Earth’s energy balance is not only affected by ‘climate drivers’ such as CO2 emissions. Climate feedbacks (or

‘carbon-cycle feedbacks’) are self-reinforcing changes to the Earth’s temperature from a secondary factor.

D E S TA B I L I S I N G S TA B I L I S I N G
F E E D B AC K S F E E D B AC K S

‘Positive feedbacks’ that ‘Negative feedbacks’ that

amplify human-caused dampen human-caused

global heating global heating

E.G.

S,
IN OT HE R WO RD
IVE … N
NOT TH AT PO SIT CO 2 ‘FE RT ILI SATIO
AD TO PL AN TS
EF FECTS’ CA N LE
RE CARB ON
SEQU ESTE RIN G MO

E. G .

A T H AWI N G S H I F TS I N FO R EST
P E RMAFROST ECOSYST EM S C LOU DS

Will release 3-41 billion “The probability of crossing The “net cloud feedback is positive
tonnes of carbon per 1°C uncertain regional thresholds increases (high confidence)”, so amplifies
of heating by 2100 with future warming (high confidence)” human-induced warming

CO NTAIN RE ST DIE BACK TH E LARG EST

IS EST IM AT ED TO E.G . AM AZON FO “C LO UD S RE MA IN
TH E PE RM AF RO ST
ICE TH E INT Y
NN ES OF CO 2, TW OV ER AL L UN CE RTA
5,5 00 BIL LIO N TO CO NT RIB UT IO N TO
HE RE TO DAY AC KS ”
TH E AT MO SP IN CL IM AT E FEE DB
TOTA L TH AT ’S IN

It’s “virtually certain” that the combined effects of all feedbacks is to amplify the heating caused by

emissions, and these are expected to become more powerful over time, further amplifying heating.

E MA JO R
KS AR E ON E OF TH
CL IM AT E FEE DB AC
MO DE LLI NG
CE RTA INT Y WH EN
SO UR CE S OF UN
T
ER WE MI GH T GE
HOW MU CH HOTT

4. We can fi x it

The door is still open to a VERY LOW scenario and avoiding the worst impacts and risks of a hotter planet –
keeping 1.5°C alive is geophysically and technically feasible. But it depends on political leadership.

S C I E N T I F I C A L LY S I M P L E

01 By 2050, if we bring our CO2 emissions down to net zero and reduce other GHGs heating can be stabilised at 1.5°C.

CO2 CO2 GHGs

+ +
Halve annual Achieve net zero Strong reductions in other
CO2 emissions by 2030 CO2 emissions by 2050 greenhouse gas emissions
like methane (CH4)

If we then implement ways to draw carbon down from the atmosphere at scale CO2
02
using carbon dioxide removal (CDR), temperature increase could be reversed.

TO BU ILD A
URY WE ’D NE ED
CE RTA IN AT SC AL E. TH IS CE NT
CD R IS DE EP LY UN BIL E SEC TO R
GLOB AL AU TO MO
RIV AL S TH E SC AL E OF TO DAY’S
CD R IND USTRY TH
AT GOAL S
T TE MP ER AT UR E
E PARIS AG RE EM EN
T US ON TR AC K TO AC HIE VE TH
TO PU

CO2
OUR SHRINKING
‘CARBON BUDGET’

Global heating is

proportionate to the

total cumulative

CO2 emitted

02
CO2

We’ve emitted about

2 , 50 0 B ILLI ON TONNES

of CO2 since 1850

CO2

TH E WE IGH T
EQ UIVAL EN T TO
We emit about 00 TITAN ICS
OF OV ER 86 0,0
40 BILLION TONNES
of CO2 per year

CO2

We have to go from

40,000,000,000 to 0
S
TH E BR UTAL MATH
GE
to stop the planet
OF CL IM AT E CH AN

heating up more

1.5°C 2°C
(50% CHANCE) (50% CHANCE)

RE MA INI NG

420 BILLION CO 2 BU DG ET 1,270 BILLION

(TO NN ES )
1 2 3 ÷ 1 2 3 ÷

4 5 6 × 4 5 6 ×

7 8 9 − 7 8 9 −

0 , = + 0 , = +

TIM E

11 YEARS LEF T IF 32 YEARS

AN NUAL
1 2 3 ÷ EM ISS IO NS 1 2 3 ÷
DO N’T
4 5 6 × 4 5 6 ×
BU DG E

7 8 9 − 7 8 9 −

0 , = + 0 , = + A MINEFIELD

Climate change isn't a cliff we go off

at 1.5°C or 2°C. It's more a minefield we're

stepping into. The farther we step in — the more

we heat the planet — the more likely it is we set

off devastating tipping point-like changes.

H O W Q U I C K LY
M I G H T H E AT I N G S T O P ? MIN ES

Once CO2 emissions reach NET ZERO,

heating is likely to stabilise very

quickly i.e. after a few years

HAVE TH E
TH IS ME AN S WE
OU R FU TU RE
WE R TO CH OO SE
PO
T H E P A T H WA Y T O
NET ZERO MAT TERS

The path we take will determine the total amount of CO2 we emit.

IO NS ,
CU MU LAT IVE EM ISS
TH E LOWE R TH E
TCOM E
TE MP ER AT UR E OU
TH E LOWE R TH E
LESS CUMULATIVE MORE CUMULATIVE
EMISSIONS EMISSIONS

The earlier the action, the lower The later the action, the higher

the cumulative emissions. the cumulative emissions.

Every tonne of CO2 we emit adds to global heating and reduces the remaining carbon budget.

By J o hn La ng NET ZERO C re a tive Co m m o n s

L AW Y E R S A L L I A N C E

AN D SH AR E!
PL EA SE US E