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RESPIRATORY HEALTH ISSUES IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION

Asbestos use and asbestos-related diseases in Asia:


Past, present and future resp_1975 767..775

GIANG VINH LE,1 KEN TAKAHASHI,1 EUN-KEE PARK,1 VANYA DELGERMAA,1 CHULHO OAK,2
AHMAD MUNIR QURESHI3 AND SYED MOHAMED ALJUNID3

1
Department of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Industrial Ecological Sciences, University of
Occupational and Environmental Health, Iseigaoka 1-1, Yahatanishiku, Kitakyushu City, Japan, 2Department of
Internal Medicine, College of Medicine, Kosin University, Busan, Korea, and 3United Nations University,
International Institute for Global Health (UNU-IIGH), UKM Medical Center, Jalan Yaacob Latif, Bandar Tun
Razak, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

INTRODUCTION
ABSTRACT
Background and objective: Although there are The World Health Organization (WHO) recognizes
growing concerns about the global epidemic of that asbestos is one of the most important occupa-
asbestos-related diseases (ARD), the current status of tional carcinogens, and the burden of asbestos-
asbestos use and ARD in Asia is elusive.We conducted a related diseases (ARD) is rising. The WHO declared
descriptive analysis of available data on asbestos use the need to eliminate ARD and cease asbestos use.1
and ARD to characterize the current situation in Asia. Recently the WHO upgraded its global estimate of
Methods: We used descriptive indicators of per capita ARD to 107 000 annual deaths caused by asbestos-
asbestos use (kilograms per capita per year) and age- related lung cancer, mesothelioma and asbestosis.2 A
adjusted mortality rates (AAMR, persons per million 2005 study of disease burdens due to occupational
population per year) by country and for the region, carcinogens estimated a worldwide incidence of
with reference to the world.
43 000 mesothelioma cases, and 27 000 were attrib-
Results: The proportion of global asbestos use attrib-
uted to the Asia-Pacific region.3 Despite Asia’s
uted to Asia has been steadily increasing over the years
from 14% (1920–1970) to 33% (1971–2000) to 64% growing importance in the world, objective analyses
(2001–2007). This increase has been reflected in the concerning its asbestos use and ARD have been
absolute level of per capita use across a wide range of scarce.
countries. In contrast, 12 882 ARD deaths have been The asbestos situation in Asian countries was
recorded cumulatively in Asia, which is equivalent to described following a 2002 regional conference,
only 13% of the cumulative number of ARD deaths in which was the first to discuss the theme.4 A striking
the world during the same period. The highest AAMR feature of the region was the persistent use of asbes-
were recorded in Cyprus (4.8), Israel (3.7) and Japan tos in most, if not all, countries; however, important
(3.3), all of which have banned asbestos use. changes have occurred since that time. Indeed,
Conclusions: There is a paucity of information con- Japan, which was a major asbestos user, experienced
cerning the current situation of ARD in Asia. The the ‘Kubota Shock’ (media exposure of a cluster of
marked increase in asbestos use in Asia since 1970, ARD victims impacting society)5 in 2005 and adopted
however, is likely to trigger a surge of ARD in the imme- a total asbestos ban in 2006 (a prohibition in prin-
diate decades ahead. ciple was already in effect in 2004). In addition,
Korea promulgated a ban, in principle, in 2006 and
Key words: asbestos, asbestosis, Asia, mesothelioma, a total ban in 2009 after recognizing a surging
mortality.
number of mesothelioma cases.6 Moreover, we are
aware that several south-east Asian countries are
considering asbestos bans, although this informa-
Correspondence: Ken Takahashi, Department of Environmen- tion has not been documented. Thus, the asbestos
tal Epidemiology, Institute of Industrial Ecological Sciences, Uni- situation in Asia is volatile and warrants a careful
versity of Occupational and Environmental Health, Iseigaoka 1-1, description.
Yahatanishiku, Kitakyushu City, Fukuoka Prefecture 807-8555,
A nation’s status with respect to asbestos and ARD
Japan. Email: ktaka@med.uoeh-u.ac.jp
Received 12 February 2011; invited to revise 9 March 2011; can be described in comparative terms using macro-
revised 15 March 2011; accepted 17 March 2011 (Associate indicators such as per capita asbestos use and
Editor: Robert Young). age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR). The volume of
© 2011 The Authors Respirology (2011) 16, 767–775
Respirology © 2011 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology doi: 10.1111/j.1440-1843.2011.01975.x
14401843, 2011, 5, Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1440-1843.2011.01975.x by Nat Prov Indonesia, Wiley Online Library on [29/09/2023]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
768 G Vinh Le et al.

asbestos used per capita (per capita asbestos use) is a Asbestos use data for Kazakhstan required special
surrogate for the exposure level of a population, and treatment because of its political transition since
its trend over time has been used to characterize the the era of the Soviet Union. Because data on asbes-
asbestos situation of various populations.7,8 In addi- tos use for the Soviet Union between 1920–1990 in
tion to other studies9,10 we have used per capita asbes- the USGS database represented Russia and Kazakh-
tos use to estimate or predict ARD in different stan combined,14 we apportioned the data from
populations, and this method has produced plausible this time period between Russia and Kazakhstan
findings.11,12 In the present study, we conducted a according to the ratio of use recorded by Russia
descriptive analysis of the available data to character- and Kazakhstan between 1995–2007. In the present
ize the situation in Asia. We assumed that a country’s analysis, only data for Kazakhstan were used
past asbestos use influenced the present ARD rates, because Kazakhstan is categorized as a part of Asia
and that present use of asbestos will influence future by the U.N. Note that the observed period for asbes-
ARD. tos use was 1920–2007 and that for ARD mortality
was 1994–2008 due to the availability of data in the
respective databases.
We compiled all data and conducted descriptive
METHODS statistics using Microsoft Excel (Microsoft Corpora-
tion, Redmond, WA, USA). We extracted the numbers
We identified all countries that have available data of deaths recorded in the WHO Mortality Database
for either asbestos use and/or mortality data for and calculated the AAMR using SAS Version
ARD. From a total of 185 countries identified, we 9.1 (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC, USA). Graphs
adopted the definition of Asia by the United Nations were created with Sigmaplot Version 9.01 (Systat
Statistics Division13 and identified 47 countries that Software Inc., San Jose, CA, USA), and maps were
belonged to Asia. These 47 Asian countries were drawn using MapInfo Professional Version 7.5 SCP
analysed in our study with reference to the 185 (Schlosser Geographic Systems, Inc., Seattle, WA,
countries in the world. USA).
We extracted all data on asbestos use from
a related report of the United States Geological
Survey (USGS).14,15 We adopted the USGS definition
of use (production plus import minus export),14 the RESULTS
data for which were available by country in 10-year
intervals from 1920 to 1970, 5-year intervals from Table 1 summarizes the asbestos situation of the 47
1970 to 1995 and annually from 1995 to 2007. We analysed countries as a region and by groups of
treated a reported negative value of asbestos use countries according to the availability of data for
(caused by storage, for example) as zero in the asbestos use and ARD mortality: group A consisted
present analysis. When necessary, we interpolated of 30 countries with available data for asbestos use
values for asbestos use for the calendar years lacking only, group B consisted of 15 countries with avail-
data. able data for both asbestos use and ARD mortality,
Using the WHO Mortality Database,16 we identified and group C consisted of two countries that only had
the number of deaths recorded as ‘mesothelioma available data for ARD mortality. In Asia, the asbes-
(C45, International Classification of Diseases, 10th tos use totaled 55.5 million metric tons (tons, here-
Revision, or ICD-10)’,17 or any subcategories thereof, after) during the observed period of 1920–2007 (29%
and ‘asbestosis (J61, ICD-10)’ between 1994–2008. We of the world’s use). For the three consecutive periods
separately counted numbers recorded for ‘malignant observed, Asia accounted for 14% (1920–1970), 33%
neoplasm of the pleura (163, ICD-9)’17 as a condition (1971–2000) and 64% (2001–2007) of the world’s
generally synonymous with mesothelioma of the asbestos use. The annual mean volume of asbestos
pleura. To investigate countries that did not report use for each period was 0.1, 0.9 and 1.2 million tons
data to the WHO, we used PubMed (http://www. in group A, and 0.08, 0.4 and 0.1 million tons in
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed) and other sources to group B, respectively.
search for national frequency data published In terms of ARD, 12 882 ARD deaths (12 012 were
in English (only 2 such references18,19 could be mesothelioma (ICD-10, C45)) have been recorded
identified). cumulatively in Asia, which is equivalent to 12.5% of
National population data from 1920–2008 were ARD deaths (13.0% of mesothelioma (ICD-10, C45))
obtained from the WHO,16 the United States Census worldwide. Except for a single case of mesothelioma
Bureau20 and Lahmeyer,21 and the data were and another case of malignancy of the pleura belong-
prioritized for use in this order. We used the ing to group C, all cases belonged to group B:
indicators of per capita asbestos use (measured mesothelioma in 10 countries, malignancy of the
in kilograms per capita per year (kg/capita per pleura in four countries, asbestosis in five countries,
year)) and AAMR (measured in cases per million all of which were recorded in the WHO Mortality
population per year) to analyse the national situa- Database, and mesothelioma in 1 country, which was
tions for asbestos and ARD, respectively. AAMR were identified in the scientific literature (and not recorded
calculated using a direct age-adjustment method in the WHO Mortality Database).
with reference to the world population in the year Table 2 shows situations asbestos use and/or ARD
2000.22 mortality by country. In terms of per capita asbestos
Respirology (2011) 16, 767–775 © 2011 The Authors
Respirology © 2011 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology
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Asbestos and related diseases in Asia 769

Table 1 Asbestos use and asbestos-related diseases (ARD) in Asian countries and the world

Data availability [n of countries]


Asbestos only Both asbestos and ARD ARD only Asia [47]
Group A [30] Group B [15] Group C [2] (% of World) World [185]

Asbestos, recorded cumulative use (million metric tons)


During 1920–1970 5.1 [10] 3.9 [9] NA 9.0 [19] 65.4 [89]
<annual mean> <0.1> <0.08> (13.8)
During 1971–2000 25.6 [25] 11.6 [15] NA 37.2 [40] 113.7 [138]
<annual mean> <0.9> <0.4> (32.7)
During 2001–2007 8.4 [30] 0.9 [14] NA 9.3 [44] 14.6 [159]
<annual mean> <1.2> <0.1> (63.7)
Total 39.1 [30] 16.4 [15] NA 55.5 [45] 193.7 [169]
(28.7)
ARD, reported cumulative mortality during 1994–2008 (n of cases)
ICD-10, C45 NA 12,011 [10] 1 [1] 12,012 [11] 92,253 [83]
(13.0)
ICD-9, 163 NA 53 [4] 1 [1] 54 [5] 330 [12]
(16.4)
ICD-10, J61† NA 516 [5] 0‡ [NA] 516 [5] 9,943 [53]
(5.2)
Other data source§ NA 300 [1] 0¶ [NA] 300 [1] 868 [2]
(34.6)
Total NA 12,880 [15] 2 [2] 12,882 [17] 103,394 [98]
(12.5)


Countries recorded both J61 and C45 in WHO mortality database, except Suriname (J61 only).

No record in WHO mortality database.
§
Published articles in English identified via Pubmed or other source of national data.

Data cannot be identified.
NA, not applicable.

use, five countries recorded high values (defined as AAMR values for Bahrain and Macau, which were the
exceeding 1.0 kg/capita per year) between 1920–1970: two countries in group C, were each based on a single
Cyprus (7.6), Kazakhstan (5.8), Israel (3.2), Lebanon case in a single year.
(2.1) and Singapore (1.5). Thirteen countries recorded Figure 2 illustrates temporal trends of asbestos
high values between 1971–2000: Kazakhstan (18.4), use in combination with or without mesothelioma
U.A.E. (3.4), Kyrgyzstan (3.1), Cyprus (2.4), Japan (2.2), mortality (depending on data availability of the latter)
Thailand (1.7), Korea (1.5), Uzbekistan (1.5), Malaysia in selected countries. Peak asbestos use in Japan
(1.4), Singapore (1.3), Saudi Arabia (1.2), Lebanon exceeded 2.0 kg/capita per year between 1970–1990,
(1.1) and Kuwait (1.0). Five countries recorded high which was followed by a linear increase of mesothe-
values between 2001–2007: Kazakhstan (11.4), Kyr- lioma mortality since 1995 and the rate has recently
gyzstan (4.2), U.A.E. (3.5), Thailand (2.1) and Uzbeki- approached 4 per million population per year. In
stan (1.9). Among these countries, Kazakhstan was Korea, asbestos use reached a peak just below 2.0 kg/
the only country listed with high values during all capita per year between 1975–1995, which was fol-
three consecutive periods. Cyprus and Lebanon had lowed by an increase in mesothelioma mortality that
high values for the two earlier periods and Kyrgyzstan, has slowly risen since 1995 and recently approached 1
U.A.E., Thailand and Uzbekistan had high values for per million population per year. Singapore recorded a
the two latter periods. Four countries increased their sharp, transient peak of asbestos use around 1975
use over the three periods: Thailand, China, India and (approaching 4.0 kg/capita per year), which was fol-
Indonesia. In total, most Asian countries (28/47 or lowed by an increase in mesothelioma mortality
60%) increased asbestos use during the observation leaping from less than 0.5 to recently around 2.0 per
period (Table 2 and Fig. 1). million population per year. Asbestos use in Thailand
In terms of ARD, 17 and 7 countries reported data increased in the 1960s, exceeded 1.0 kg/capita per
for at least 1 year for mesothelioma and asbestosis year in 1975 and peaked at around 3.0 kg/capita per
deaths, respectively (the numbers of countries report- year in 1996. Recently the level of asbestos use in
ing data for at least 3 years are 11 and 5, respectively). Thailand has fluctuated. China and India have shown
Among countries reporting data for at least 3 years, increased asbestos use approaching 0.5 and 0.3 kg/
the AAMR (cases per million population per year) for capita per year, respectively, and the slopes have
mesothelioma were highest for Cyprus (4.8), Israel recently accelerated. Thailand, China and India,
(3.7) and Japan (3.3). It should be noted that the however, lack national data on mesothelioma.
© 2011 The Authors Respirology (2011) 16, 767–775
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14401843, 2011, 5, Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1440-1843.2011.01975.x by Nat Prov Indonesia, Wiley Online Library on [29/09/2023]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
770 G Vinh Le et al.

Table 2 Age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) of asbestos-related diseases (ARD) between 1994–2008 and per capita
asbestos use (kg/capita per year) in Asian countries

Asbestos use† AAMR (n of reporting years)


Country Group 1920–1970 1971–2000 2001–2007 Mesothelioma‡ Asbestosis§

1 Afghanistan A — — 0.00 — —
2 Armenia A — 0.13 0.08 — —
3 Azerbaijan A — 0.39 0.70 — —
4 Bahrain C — — — 3.46 (1) —
5 Bangladesh A — 0.01 0.02 — —
6 Bhutan A — — 0.33 — —
7 Brunei A — — 0.00 — —
8 China A 0.07 0.24 0.39 — —
9 Cyprus B 7.60 2.41 0.12 4.79 (4) —
10 Georgia B — 0.00 0.01 0.33 (3) 0.38 (2)
11 Hong Kong B 0.02 0.04 0.20 1.19 (7) 0.20 (5)
12 India A 0.04 0.13 0.20 — —
13 Indonesia A 0.01 0.16 0.17 — —
14 Iran A 0.25 0.74 0.66 — —
15 Iraq A 0.07 0.06 0.00 — —
16 Israel B 3.19 0.56 0.02 3.67 (10) 0.13 (5)
17 Japan B 0.80 2.23 0.17 3.25 (14) 0.12 (14)
18 Jordan A — — 0.00 — —
19 Kazakhstan¶ A 5.84 18.40 11.44 — —
20 Kuwait B — 1.04 0.00 0.00 (1)†† —
21 Kyrgyzstan B — 3.12 4.24 0.56 (6) —
22 Lebanon A 2.10 1.12 0.01 — —
23 Macau C — — — 3.61 (1)†† —
24 Malaysia B 0.89 1.37 0.38 0.21 (6) —
25 Maldives A — 0.00 0.00 — —
26 Mongolia B — 0.14 0.11 1.71 (1)†† —
27 Myanmar A 0.04 0.04 0.01 — —
28 Nepal A — 0.00 0.00 — —
29 North Korea A — 0.12 0.07 — —
30 Oman A — 0.34 0.54 — —
31 Pakistan A — 0.05 0.03 — —
32 Philippines B 0.07 0.04 0.03 0.21 (5) 0.08 (5)
33 Qatar A — — 0.36 — —
34 Republic of Korea B 0.32 1.45 0.28 0.62 (12) 0.03 (7)
35 Saudi Arabia A — 1.15 0.01 — —
36 Singapore B 1.52 1.31 0.10 1.12 (13)†† —
37 Sri Lanka B — 0.37 0.81 0.27 (1)†† —
38 Syria A — 0.27 0.04 — —
39 Taiwan B 0.29 0.96 — 1.14 (12)‡‡ —
40 Tajikistan A — 0.09 0.12 — —
41 Thailand A 0.45 1.72 2.05 — —
42 Turkey A 0.08 0.58 0.14 — —
43 Turkmenistan A — 0.63 0.42 — —
44 United Arab Emirates A — 3.43 3.46 — —
45 Uzbekistan B — 1.45 1.89 0.30 (2) 0.03 (1)
46 Vietnam A — 0.36 0.65 — —
47 Yemen A — 0.01 0.00 — —


Data were interpolated for some years and then the weighted average per capita asbestos use was calculated.

C45, ICD-10.
§
J61, ICD-10.

See text for calculation method of Kazakhstan.
††
163, ICD-9.
‡‡
National data represented only death count for all ages so crude mortality rate was calculated.
A, asbestos use only; B, both asbestos and ADR; C, ARD only; —, data not available.

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Asbestos and related diseases in Asia 771

Figure 1 Asbestos use among Asian countries between 1920–1970 (A), 1971–2000 (B) and 2001–2007 (C). Asbestos use
(kg per capita per year) ( ) >1.0, ( ) 0.1 to 1.0, ( ) <0.1, ( ) data not available.

Table 3 highlights the national policy situations in DISCUSSION


Asia related to asbestos use with reference to the
world. Only 3 (6%) Asian countries have ratified the Before 1970, Asian countries only accounted for a
International Labour Organization (ILO) Asbestos minor proportion (14%) of global asbestos use. This
Convention23 compared with 17% of countries world- historical situation should be reflected, at least par-
wide. Thirteen (28%) Asian countries have adopted tially, in the current situation of ARD, for which only
asbestos bans, which is a similar percentage to the 17 (36%) of the 47 analysed countries recorded ARD
number of countries that have adopted asbestos bans deaths. Interestingly, only about 13% of global ARD
worldwide (30%). deaths have occurred in Asia. These figures are low for
© 2011 The Authors Respirology (2011) 16, 767–775
Respirology © 2011 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology
14401843, 2011, 5, Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1440-1843.2011.01975.x by Nat Prov Indonesia, Wiley Online Library on [29/09/2023]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
772 G Vinh Le et al.

Figure 1 Continued

Figure 2 Trends in asbestos use


with/without mesothelioma (C45,
ICD-10) mortality in selected Asian
countries. (a) Japan, (b) Korea, (c)
Singapore (163, ICD-9), (d) Thailand,
(e) China, (f) India. ( ) asbestos
use, ( ) missing data on asbestos
use was interpolated, ( ) age-
adjusted mortality rates for
mesothelioma.

Respirology (2011) 16, 767–775 © 2011 The Authors


Respirology © 2011 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology
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Asbestos and related diseases in Asia 773

Table 3 Ratification status of the International Labour Furthermore, the slopes of the rising segments of both
Organization (ILO) Asbestos Convention† and adoption of curves appear similar in their respective countries.
asbestos ban‡ in Asia and the world These findings suggest that countries will experience
ARD even after asbestos use is significantly decreased
Asia World and in a manner reflective of historical asbestos use.
[n of countries] (n = 47) (n = 185) It is highly unlikely that ARD are absent in countries
that have used large volumes of asbestos but do not
Ratification status of ILO 6.4% (3‡/47) 17.3% (32/185) report the related numbers.27,31 In Asia, this problem is
Asbestos Convention† especially relevant to China (Fig. 2E) and India (2F),
Adoption of asbestos 27.7% (13¶/47) 29.7% (55/185) where levels of asbestos use have increased but are
ban§ still at moderate levels (lower than 1 kg/capita per

year). However, the moderate values are due to their
ILO Convention No. 162.23 large populations, and the actual level of use is

Cyprus, Japan, Korea. high31,32 (e.g. in 2007, China and India used 626 000
§
Source: International Ban Asbestos Secretariat.24 and 302 000 tons, respectively; data not shown),

Bahrain, Brunei, Cyprus, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Korea, which could potentially expose many people to
Kuwait, Mongolia, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey. asbestos. Recently we estimated the number of
mesothelioma cases in countries where the disease is
unreported by assuming that the cumulative number
a region with a combined population of 3.7 billion, or of mesothelioma cases is related to the cumulative
61% of the world’s population in the year 2000. asbestos use. These estimates suggested that China
The asbestos situation has changed drastically and India have already ‘missed’ 5100 and 2200 cases,
since Asian countries increased their share to 33% of respectively.27 Although high per capita use will likely
the world’s use between 1971–2000, which reached lead to high disease rates, moderate per capita use in
64% after the turn of the century. Although the delin- populous countries should not be underestimated.
eating year of 1970 was chosen arbitrarily, it repre- The asbestos file of the USGS compiles information
sents a widely accepted latency time of 30–50 years on the production (mining), trade and use of asbestos
for ARD,25,26 particularly mesothelioma, to develop at by country and has been referenced widely to assess
the individual (case) level after asbestos exposure. asbestos-related situations in the world. It is possible,
The year 1970 is also in line with our earlier findings at however, that the USGS data on asbestos use are not
the national level, that asbestos use between 1960– as complete for less-developed countries, especially
1969 correlated with ARD mortality rates around the in the earlier years. According to the USGS, Vietnam
year 2000.11 In addition, cumulative asbestos use and Mongolia first used asbestos in 1998. In a recent
before 1970 predicted the recent cumulative number scientific meeting to promote international coopera-
of mesothelioma deaths.27 Thus we hypothesize that tion for the elimination of ARD in Asia, however,
the increased asbestos use observed after 1971 will national representatives reported contradicting infor-
begin to take its toll. mation: Vietnam established its first asbestos-cement
In the present study, we observed characteristic factory in the mid 1960s33 in the province of Dong Nai,
trends within groups and in individual countries. and Mongolia started to import asbestos in the early
Group B countries (i.e. countries with available data 1960s for application in power plants.34 These reports
for asbestos and ARD) had substantially reduced are yet to be documented in the scientific literature,
asbestos use since 2001 (the average annual mean was but they suggest that some historical information is
0.1 million tons), whereas group A countries (i.e. coun- not well documented.
tries with available data for asbestos only) had sub- Political actions by countries as countermeasures
stantially increased asbestos use during the same for asbestos use were assessed in terms of the ratifi-
period (the average annual mean was 1.2 million tons). cation status of the ILO Asbestos Convention23 and
Similar trends were observed at the level of individual adoption of asbestos bans.24 Although the ratification
countries, which suggested that countries reduced status of asbestos bans in Asia is similar to the rest of
their asbestos use after realizing the burden of ARD. the world, the ratification status is lower. Interestingly,
Although the reduction of asbestos use may correlate the three Asian countries taking both political actions
with a country’s own acquisition of ARD data, the (i.e. Cyprus, Japan and Korea) have recently experi-
‘lessons’ of other countries are not easily learned. enced the burden of ARD. Previously, we reported on
Western countries that used large volumes of asbes- early indications suggesting that the adoption of
tos eventually experienced an epidemic of ARD,28 bans may contribute to a subsequent reduction
typically mesothelioma. At the national level, this in mesothelioma mortality at national levels.12 A prac-
experience can be demonstrated graphically as the tical recommendation to Asian countries is to not
‘double-peak’ curve,29,30 in which the ARD epidemic only ban asbestos use as soon as possible, but also to
curve follows the asbestos-use curve after several minimize exposure to asbestos and to ratify the ILO
decades.6 Several Asian countries are now following Asbestos Convention.
this pattern: Japan (most typical; Fig. 2A), Korea The strength of the present study was that it was a
(typical; 2B), Singapore (possible; 2C) and Israel (pos- comparative assessment of a wide range of countries,
sible; not shown). In these countries, the initial, rising based on data in public databases, which has been
segment of the presumed ARD curve coincides with widely referenced and complemented by scientific
the final waning segment of the asbestos-use curve.6 literature. In addition, the present study applied
© 2011 The Authors Respirology (2011) 16, 767–775
Respirology © 2011 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology
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774 G Vinh Le et al.

quantitative indicators to the data (e.g. AAMR and 9 Antao VC, Pinheiro GA, Wassell JT. Asbestosis mortality in the
per capita use). Our study had several limitations, USA: facts and predictions. Occup. Environ. Med. 2009; 66: 335–
however, including the representation and compara- 8.
10 Tse LA, Yu IT, Goggins W et al. Are current or future mesothe-
bility of the original extracted data. The use of asbes-
lioma epidemics in Hong Kong the tragic legacy of uncontrolled
tos may not have been fully grasped for each country use of asbestos in the past? Environ. Health Perspect. 2010; 118:
and ARD are known to be generally rare and difficult 382–6.
to diagnose. The most serious bias could have been 11 Lin RT, Takahashi K, Karjalainen A et al. Ecological association
the data validity in countries with limited experience between asbestos-related diseases and historical asbestos
in diagnosing ARD and underreporting is probably consumption: an international analysis. Lancet 2007; 369: 844–
the most dominant problem.27 Hence, our findings 9.
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