What is predictive maintenance?

Imagine one day you receive a phone call saying, “Hi, this is your washing
machine company. Can we send a tech to your home today to replace the pump
on your machine?”

As you stare at the basket of folded clothes next to the couch, you respond
“Thanks, but the machine is fine. I used it today.”

The company counters with, “Yes, we know, but our readings suggest the pump is
on its way out. At this point, it typically fails in one of the next few uses. This could
cause flooding in your home and will damage other internal components, which
means a much bigger repair or even a new machine. Plus, there are clean-up
costs and other inconveniences while the machine is out of order.”

Naturally, with this in mind you schedule a time to service the machine.

This same process of identifying problems before they’re problems is what industrial operators
are trying to do today for their critical equipment. Instead of waiting to fix machinery when it
breaks or hoping a machine makes it to a scheduled maintenance point, companies want to
predict when things will fail. This is very different from ‘preventive maintenance’ where
companies replace some or all parts, regardless of wear, which is very expensive.

Predictive maintenance harnesses historical data to identify patterns and signs that indicate when
equipment failed in the past. Companies then use those models to create alerts so they can
monitor equipment for the same signs and act when they occur – before the equipment fails and
they experience downtime.

To be successful at predictive maintenance, companies need both historical data and real-time
data. Without real-time data from your equipment’s sensors, you can’t react to issues in a timely
manner. When considering equipment like power stations, wind turbines, infrastructure, industrial
machinery, aircraft engines, and others, reacting in real-time is mission critical.

Predictive maintenance 101

What is predictive maintenance?

Predictive maintenance is a maintenance strategy that uses sensors and data analysis to detect
issues in machinery or other equipment before they become major problems.

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The objective of predictive maintenance is to reduce the amount of unplanned downtime and
increase the lifespan of the equipment being monitored. This results in more efficient operations,
higher productivity, and improved business outcomes for the organizations that utilize predictive
maintenance.

The predictive maintenance approach differs from preventative or reactive maintenance. The
former involves regularly scheduled inspections, repairs, and replacements designed to keep
equipment running at optimal levels. However, preventative maintenance isn’t as efficient
because it occurs around set schedules and not in response to precise data for each machine.
Reactive maintenance is the general default approach. Here, maintenance only happens when a
problem or malfunction occurs and requires immediate attention, typically on an emergency
basis, which also makes it more expensive.

How does predictive maintenance work?

Predictive maintenance relies on data. The first step when starting a predictive maintenance
initiative is to implement sensors to collect data. Companies analyze this data to identify patterns
that they can use to predict problems, malfunctions, and breakdowns in machinery before they
occur.

Different analysis tools exist to serve various predictive goals, like artificial intelligence and
machine learning models or even traditional statistical methods for anomaly detection. Once you
collect enough historical data to make reliable predictions, you can use real-time alerting to know
when to shut down equipment or schedule targeted repairs before issues occur.

A real-world example of predictive maintenance is monitoring the vibration levels

of a motor. Predictive maintenance algorithms can analyze sensor data to identify
a safe vibration threshold for the motor. If the sensor readings start to cross the
acceptable vibration threshold, the algorithm alerts the maintenance team that a
motor bearing is starting to wear out based on the sensor data. The team can then
schedule maintenance to replace the bearing before it fails. This minimizes
downtime, prolongs the life of the machine (because the wonky bearing didn’t
have an opportunity to ruin other parts of the motor), and ultimately saves money
by being able to control the situation and minimize maintenance impacts on
production.

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Predictive maintenance benefits
From the perspective of industrial operators, using predictive maintenance has several key
benefits.

Increased machinery lifespan

As indicated in the examples above, proactive, predictive maintenance helps you detect issues
with industrial equipment before they can cause more significant damage. Industrial machines
are expensive, so the longer you can go without having to replace one, the better it is for the
bottom line.

Reduced downtime and increased efficiency

These two benefits are closely intertwined. Predictive maintenance enables you to schedule
repairs or maintenance when it has the least impact on production. By isolating issues within
machines, predictive maintenance can be selective, helping to ensure that only the parts that
need replacing get replaced. This is different from preventative maintenance, which often
replaces parts before their end-of-life and doing that too soon/frequently increases costs. Having
machines that run in their optimal state for longer makes factories and other industrial operations
more efficient by allowing them to operate at full capacity more often.

Worker safety
In workplaces where machine failure could cause injury to workers, having the ability to
accurately predict equipment failures helps keep workers safe.

Cost savings
Predictive maintenance saves you money in several different ways. There are cost savings
associated with having machines up and running in an optimal state. This leads to increased
output, enables process optimization (which means even more, reliable output), and reduces the
costs associated with replacing expensive industrial equipment. Predictive maintenance saves on
repair costs because you can do more maintenance with a smaller workforce, especially for
distributed operations, and you don’t end up replacing parts unnecessarily.

Getting started with predictive maintenance

Before kicking off a predictive maintenance initiative, you need to understand the various
techniques that exist and what to expect from them. It’s also important to understand the
relationship between the data collected using those techniques and advanced analytics.

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Predictive maintenance techniques
The following list isn’t exhaustive, but it provides a solid starting point for understanding what’s
possible.

Condition-based monitoring
One of the most common techniques is condition-based monitoring. Condition-based data
provides information about the current condition or performance of the equipment being
monitored. This approach detects wear, fatigue, and damage in industrial equipment by tracking
factors like temperature, pressure, and others.

Electric signal monitoring

This technique involves monitoring the electrical signals of equipment to detect changes that
may indicate problems. For example, changes in electrical voltage or current signals may indicate
a larger problem with a motor or generator.

Acoustic analysis
Acoustic monitoring uses equipment to record sounds emitted by equipment at the sonic and
ultrasonic level. This includes things like listening for gas leaks and issues with engines.
Ultrasonic monitoring is particularly useful because it can detect issues beyond the range of
human hearing to identify anomalies in equipment performance.

Vibration analysis
Vibration analysis is useful for monitoring high-speed rotating equipment. This technique uses a
baseline reading when the equipment is in ideal condition to determine the normal vibrational
rhythm. If the machinery deviates from the baseline rhythm, it may be a sign that repairs or
adjustments are necessary.

In many cases, historical data helps to pinpoint problems based on vibration changes. For
example, vibration analysis can tell the difference between loose parts and more significant
motor issues. This makes repairs faster because the technician knows exactly what they need to
fix instead of spending time doing exploratory analysis of every equipment component.

Infrared analysis
You can use infrared cameras to find abnormal temperature readings that might indicate a
problem with equipment. This process can be done manually by employees or automated using
new AI-powered image recognition systems.

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Fluid analysis
Fluid analysis involves tracking the physical and chemical aspects of fluids used in machinery, like
coolants or lubricants. Tracking temperature, lifespan, contaminants, and other factors allows you
to optimize fluid replacement and prevent waste.

Visual inspection
Visual inspection involves looking at equipment for signs of damage like cracks or corrosion. You
can automate this process with modern AI image recognition technologies, to increase the
frequency of inspections more easily.

Predictive maintenance and data analysis

Predictive maintenance requires the use of advanced data analysis techniques. These typically
take the form of machine learning (ML) and/or artificial intelligence (AI). Creating predictive
models also requires a lot of data. A single model typically requires a constant stream of millions
of data points.

The goals of predictive maintenance models are to:

1. Understand the historic behavior of industrial equipment

2. Compare current conditions to the historic baseline
3. Act on the differences between them in a timely manner

In other words, the context of time is critical to predictive maintenance. Sensor data is, by nature,
time series data, which tracks changes of time from a particular source over a given window of
time.

Sensors used in industrial equipment generate a lot of data. This is a good thing because it’s
exactly what these advanced analytics models need. Using a time series database helps you
manage that data and integrate it with ML and AI technologies.

Collecting all the data needed to train and feed predictive models is possible with Telegraf. This
is an open source data collection agent. It has a library of 300+ plugins to connect to any data
source and, if a plugin doesn’t exist for a source, you can easily write a custom one. You can even
use Telegraf to clean your data before writing it to InfluxDB, saving time and resources for your
most critical operations. Telegraf is extremely lightweight and can sit on edge devices and
gateways to collect data directly from its source.

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While Telegraf makes data collection easier, InfluxDB has everything you need to store, manage,
and transform your time series data. InfluxDB is a purpose-built time series database, designed to
handle the volume and velocity of sensor data. Built on open source technologies, InfluxDB
integrates with any system or software, including the ML and AI tools used in predictive
maintenance processes. InfluxDB’s data compression ratio means that industrial operators can
store high fidelity time series data forever at minimal cost. This historical data provides the
backbone for predictive models.

However, InfluxDB can also query data in real-time. This means that you can run queries on
real-time data against predictive models and trigger alerts based on the output. Having real-time
and historical data in a single solution, and equally accessible, streamlines the entire process and
gives you greater flexibility when training and implementing predictive models.

InfluxDB in action

ADLINK
ADLINK is a company that designs and manufactures products for embedded computing, test
and measurement, and automation applications. Its products include everything from
computer-on-modules, to industrial motherboards, to data acquisition modules, and more.
ADLINK uses InfluxDB as a part of their ADLINK Edge™ IoT solution to store IoT data. The platform
connects IoT data to advanced analytics systems to visualize it for monitoring and analysis and to
extract actionable insights for operational efficiency.

One particular customer, a defense contractor, wanted to shift from reactive to predictive
maintenance on its Thermotron test chambers and turned to ADLINK Edge™ to connect existing
software, equipment, and systems securely, seamlessly, and cost effectively. These machines
perform testing at extreme temperatures. The problem is that when malfunctions occur, they take
a long time to identify because the machines can take several hours to start up. The cost to repair
the machines can exceed $100,000, plus the loss of efficiency due to machines being offline and
interrupting scheduled testing and production.

Using ADLINK Edge™ allows the company to collect data from external sensors that provide
information about what resources go into the machines, and to connect directly to PLCs to
understand what’s happening inside the machines. Visualizing this data helped the company to
understand the factors that caused machine failures. Armed with these models, the company
uses real-time data from the sensors and PLCs to predict machine failure and take proactive
steps to repair and maintain them. Overall, the company reduced downtime related to planned
and unplanned maintenance shutdowns, improved machine performance, and reduced costs.

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AnalyticsPlus
AnalyticsPlus is a leading Chicago-based advanced analytics and predictive modeling company
and InfluxData partner. The company has strong domain knowledge in multiple industries. In the
manufacturing sector, it creates unique, IP-driven streaming analytics, anomaly detection, and
edge computing solutions.

The AnalyticsPlus team worked with Nebbiolo, a company that specializes in edge computing, to
build a platform that uses InfluxDB to generate real-time insights. One example of this platform in
action is performing quality control of engine heads produced at a factory in Alabama. Workers at
the factory performed manual inspections on engine heads at random. This was a labor-intensive
process and only accounted for about 1% of production.

The plant wanted to automate the inspection process to increase the inspection rate and more
accurately identify problematic parts. So, the factory instrumented its shop floor, installing sensors
across five manufacturing lines and twenty-five CNC machines to inspect various aspects of the
engine heads. The data from these sensors feed various predictive models to determine whether
a part is likely to fail. After implementing this predictive modeling approach, the manufacturer
increased its inspection rate of engine parts from 1% manually to 100% automated, in-line testing
and was able to predict failure across all production lines in real-time.

Predictive maintenance use cases and industries

So, what does predictive maintenance look like in the real world? The following use cases shed
some light on what is possible with, and how industrial operators use predictive maintenance.

Automotive fleet management

Predictive maintenance can track the status of vehicles and predict when they need maintenance
or repair for various components. This reduces the lifetime cost of the vehicle and saves money
for the owner.

Industrial machinery
In industrial settings, predictive maintenance models monitor the performance of equipment such
as pumps, motors, and generators. This helps reduce the amount of unplanned downtime and
keep operations running smoothly. Predictive maintenance in this setting is very useful for
increasing overall equipment effectiveness (OEE). Predictive maintenance practitioners can see
OEE surpass 90%.

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Power generation
Monitoring power generation equipment, like turbines and generators, helps operators
understand when machines need repair or are in danger of failing. This data helps electrical
companies understand and prioritize what infrastructure investments are necessary and provide
customers with more reliable service.

Construction and infrastructure

Properly implementing predictive maintenance for the built environment, like buildings, bridges,
and roads, helps prevent catastrophic failures and reduces the cost of repairs. For example, it’s
more cost-effective to replace bridge supports than it is to replace a collapsed bridge – not to
mention all the costs incurred from collateral damage.

Predictive maintenance challenges

While predictive maintenance provides many benefits, it isn’t perfect. There are several
challenges when it comes to implementing and using predictive maintenance successfully in
production. Here are a few things to watch out for and to consider when you begin your
predictive maintenance journey. Being aware of these pitfalls at the outset can save a lot of
headaches down the line.

Data quality
For predictive maintenance to work, above all else you need accurate data. That means
calibrating sensors properly, ensuring that you’re not missing data, and making sure your data
represents all hardware being monitored.

Collecting and integrating data

Integrating data from multiple, different sources into something usable for building a model or
generating alerts can be another challenge. This typically requires an ETL pipeline to transform
and move data for long-term storage. You need to be able to efficiently compress data for
storage while also serving queries quickly to make it usable. This is where InfluxDB excels.

Prediction algorithm development and selection

Selecting the right algorithm is important because it determines how accurate predictions are,
how quickly they can be generated, and the cost of hardware needed to make these predictions.
You can design models from scratch with data science techniques, like feature engineering, or
you can use pre-existing algorithms with a proven track record for similar problems or use cases.

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Company culture
Implementing predictive maintenance can require major changes to existing processes and
workflows. For predictive maintenance to be effective, leaders need to make sure their workers
buy into the new system.

Implementation and maintenance costs

Several factors impact the startup costs for predictive maintenance. These include the need to
install sensors, create software to process data, and train employees to utilize the new system.
Once the system is in place, it has its own maintenance costs. You need to calibrate, clean, repair,
or replace sensors to ensure they continue collecting accurate data.

False positives
False positives from inaccurate predictive maintenance algorithms can result in wasted
maintenance costs, and cause workers to lose confidence in the system.

When does it make sense to use predictive maintenance?

Despite these potential drawbacks, predictive maintenance has the potential to create a
significant competitive advantage for its practitioners. There are several factors that can tilt the
scales for when it makes sense to adopt a predictive maintenance approach. For most industrial
operators, these should be familiar:

● Equipment is valuable in terms of direct cost or if downtime impacts overall productivity of

your business.
● Equipment has high maintenance costs or requires a specialist to repair.
● Equipment is critical to the safety of workers or citizens.

Conclusion
Technological advancements make predictive maintenance easier to implement and manage
than ever before. For industrial operations, predictive maintenance allows organizations to
extend the life of expensive equipment, optimize equipment efficiency, and reduce maintenance
time and costs, all of which combine to provide a competitive advantage.

The advanced analytics tools needed to create predictive models require large amounts of time
series data, and InfluxDB is the ideal solution for collecting, managing, and storing that data in a
single datastore. InfluxDB also provides interoperability with virtually any system, ensuring that

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you can collect and access the data you need, even as you add new equipment and scale out
your operations.

Resources for IIoT/OT

What is Industry 4.0?

Edge Computing
Overall Equipment Effectiveness
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