Sydney’s Monster Flood Crisis
By Toe Wai
Again, thousands of residents in Western Sydney face a life-
threatening flood disaster. At the time of writing, evacuation
orders spanned southwest and northwest Sydney and
residents of the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley were being
warned the crisis was escalating.
It’s just over a year since the region’s long-suffering
residents lived through one of the largest flood events in
recent history. And of course, earlier this year floods
devastated the Northern NSW town of Lismore.
Right now, attention is rightly focused on helping those
immediately affected by the disaster. But as the floodwaters
subside, we must urgently act to avert a repeat of this crisis.
Obviously, nature is a major culprit here. But there’s plenty
humans can do to plan for major flooding and make sure
we’re not sitting in the path of disaster.
So, what’s caused the current the
flood problem?
The first driver of this disaster is nature and geography.
For many months now, much of New South Wales has
experienced significant rain and associated flooding.
There’s a reason both the Hawkesbury-Nepean and Lismore
flood the way they do – geography. Both areas sit in low-
lying bowl-like depressions in the landscape.
Lismore sits at the confluence of several large rivers that
each drain significant catchments – and so can deliver large
floods.
And in the Hawkesbury-Nepean, huge rivers have to pass
through a very tight “pinch point” known as the Sackville
Bathtub. This slows the flow, causing water to back up
across the floodplain.
The NSW government wants to raise the wall of the
Warragamba Dam to help alleviate this problem. But as
others have argued, this controversial proposal might not
work. That’s because raising the wall will control only about
half the floodwater, and won’t prevent major floods
delivered by other rivers feeding the region.
The second factor making the current floods so bad is the
exposure of infrastructure and housing. In the Hawkesbury-
Nepean region, lots of stuff people care about – such as
homes, businesses and schools – is fin the path of
floodwaters.
In an ideal world, nothing would be built on a floodplain.
But due to Sydney’s growing population and the housing
affordability crisis, local governments in Western Sydney
have been under pressure to build more and more homes,
despite the known flood risk.
In 2018, more than 140,000 people lived or worked on the
Hawkesbury-Nepean floodplain. Due to this large
population and the region’s geography, the area has the
most significant and unmitigated community flood exposure
in Australia.
What’s worse, the region’s population is expected to double
over the next 30 years. At the same time, climate change will
change rainfall patterns and make severe flooding more
likely.
Local governments in Western Sydney have been under
pressure to build more homes. Ben Rushton/AAP
Being prepared
The third contributing factor to this flood disaster is a lack of
preparedness.
The NSW government has a strategy to manage the flood
risk in the Hawkesbury-Nepean. It includes improved flood
warning and emergency response measures, upgraded
evacuation routes, recovery planning and a regional
floodplain management study.
ing disasters has never been more pressing.
But given the region’s big, growing population and massive
flood exposure, these three bolder and more urgent
measures are needed:
1. Get better at urban planning
2. Prepare infrastructure and people
3. Equip the SES properly
Looking ahead
Unfortunately, the wet conditions we’re now seeing may
persist for some time. Recent climate modelling suggests
Australia may face a third consecutive La Nina this spring
and summer.
This extra rain will fall on already soaked landscapes,
further increasing the likelihood of flooding. And the
ramifications will extend far beyond affected communities.
Disruptions will be felt in agriculture, supply chains,
transport routes and broader state and national economies.
In the longer term, of course, climate change is projected to
bring far worse extreme rain events than in the past. The
current flood crisis will recede, but the need to plan for
future flood