NMIMS Global Access School for Continuing Education

Course: Decision Science

Internal Assignment Applicable for April 2023 Examination

1.Answer:
Introduction:
Forecasting Model: When trying to look ahead, companies often use different methods. Sales, supply and
demand, and customer behaviour can all be estimated using forecasting models. These frameworks are
particularly useful in business-to-business (B2B) marketing and sales. Companies use different forecasting
methods, each producing different results. One of the biggest advantages of advanced predictive models is that
they allow you to see what might happen.
Four methods are commonly used to look into the future.
Four broad categories of models and techniques are commonly used to predict a company's success. To serve
their customers better, companies use different forecasting models, some of which are listed below. time series
model,
• economic model,
• model prediction rate, and
• Delphi Techniques
Concept and Application:

α = 0.2
Yea Exponential
Sales Error |Error| Error2 |%Error|
r Smoothing(α=0.2)
1991 1.68 1.68
2001 2.54 0.2⋅1.68+0.8⋅1.68=1.68 2.54-1.68=0.86 0.86 0.7396 33.86%
2002 2.38 0.2⋅2.54+0.8⋅1.68=1.852 2.38-1.852=0.528 0.528 0.2788 22.18%
2003 2.73 0.2⋅2.38+0.8⋅1.852=1.9576 2.73-1.9576=0.7724 0.7724 0.5966 28.29%
2004 3.46 0.2⋅2.73+0.8⋅1.9576=2.1121 3.46-2.1121=1.3479 1.3479 1.8169 38.96%
2005 3.92 0.2⋅3.46+0.8⋅2.1121=2.3817 3.92-2.3817=1.5383 1.5383 2.3665 39.24%
2006 4.45 0.2⋅3.92+0.8⋅2.3817=2.6893 4.45-2.6893=1.7607 1.7607 3.1 39.57%
2007 5.08 0.2⋅4.45+0.8⋅2.6893=3.0415 5.08-3.0415=2.0385 2.0385 4.1556 40.13%

1
 2008 5.28 0.2⋅5.08+0.8⋅3.0415=3.4492 5.28-3.4492=1.8308 1.8308 3.3519 34.67%
2009 5.17 0.2⋅5.28+0.8⋅3.4492=3.8153 5.17-3.8153=1.3547 1.3547 1.8351 26.20%
2010 5.78 0.2⋅5.17+0.8⋅3.8153=4.0863 5.78-4.0863=1.6937 1.6937 2.8687 29.30%
2011 6.31 0.2⋅5.78+0.8⋅4.0863=4.425 6.31-4.425=1.885 1.885 3.5532 29.87%
2012 6.58 0.2⋅6.31+0.8⋅4.425=4.802 6.58-4.802=1.778 1.778 3.1612 27.02%
2013 6.97 0.2⋅6.58+0.8⋅4.802=5.1576 6.97-5.1576=1.8124 1.8124 3.2848 26%
2014 7.68 0.2⋅6.97+0.8⋅5.1576=5.5201 7.68-5.5201=2.1599 2.1599 4.6652 28.12%
2015 8.03 0.2⋅7.68+0.8⋅5.5201=5.9521 8.03-5.9521=2.0779 2.0779 4.3178 25.88%
2016 8.8 0.2⋅8.03+0.8⋅5.9521=6.3677 8.8-6.3677=2.4323 2.4323 5.9163 27.64%
2017 10.04 0.2⋅8.8+0.8⋅6.3677=6.8541 10.04-6.8541=3.1859 3.1859 10.1498 31.73%
2018 0.2⋅10.04+0.8⋅6.8541=7.4913
Total 29.0565 56.158 528.68%

1. Mean absolute deviation (MAD)

The mean absolute deviation for each data point displays how far away it is from the mean. A data set's rate of
change may be used to determine how dynamic it is.
The MAD may be calculated using the procedures given below.
First Step: To start, you must calculate the average.
Second Step: The second step is to figure out each data point's positive deviation from the mean. They
demonstrate the abundance of choices.
Third Step: Assemble these parts. This is the last action.
Fourth Step: Subtract the amount from the total number of observations in the fourth step.
To rapidly understand what mean absolute deviation is and how to calculate it, just follow the example below.
the area of the globe where there are opponents, a new setting, and a particular kind of the world.
MAE = 1 ∑|ei| = 29.0565 = 1.7092
n 17

2. Mean squared error (MSE):

Data was plentiful, and there was an abundance of it all at once (MSE). That's accomplished by squaring the
distances between the data points and the line of greatest fit (also known as the "errors"). If your dimensions are
wrong, you'll need a square to make the corrections. It also reveals how great the discrepancies still remain.
Mean squared error refers to the sum of all the errors that were made. Predictions may be made with more
precision using the MSE.
MSE = 1 ∑|e2i| = 56.158 = 3.3034
n 17

2
2. α = 0.4
Year Sales Exponential Smoothing (α=0.4) Error |Error| Error2 |%Error|
1991 1.68 1.68
2001 2.54 0.4⋅1.68+0.6⋅1.68=1.68 2.54-1.68=0.86 0.86 0.7396 33.86%
2002 2.38 0.4⋅2.54+0.6⋅1.68=2.024 2.38-2.024=0.356 0.356 0.1267 14.96%
2.73-
2003 2.73 0.4⋅2.38+0.6⋅2.024=2.1664 0.5636 0.3176 20.64%
2.1664=0.5636
3.46-
2004 3.46 0.4⋅2.73+0.6⋅2.1664=2.3918 1.0682 1.141 30.87%
2.3918=1.0682
3.92-
2005 3.92 0.4⋅3.46+0.6⋅2.3918=2.8191 1.1009 1.212 28.08%
2.8191=1.1009
4.45-
2006 4.45 0.4⋅3.92+0.6⋅2.8191=3.2595 1.1905 1.4174 26.75%
3.2595=1.1905
5.08-
2007 5.08 0.4⋅4.45+0.6⋅3.2595=3.7357 1.3443 1.8072 26.46%
3.7357=1.3443
5.28-
2008 5.28 0.4⋅5.08+0.6⋅3.7357=4.2734 1.0066 1.0132 19.06%
4.2734=1.0066
2009 5.17 0.4⋅5.28+0.6⋅4.2734=4.676 5.17-4.676=0.494 0.494 0.244 9.55%
5.78-
2010 5.78 0.4⋅5.17+0.6⋅4.676=4.8736 0.9064 0.8215 15.68%
4.8736=0.9064
6.31-
2011 6.31 0.4⋅5.78+0.6⋅4.8736=5.2362 1.0738 1.1531 17.02%
5.2362=1.0738
6.58-
2012 6.58 0.4⋅6.31+0.6⋅5.2362=5.6657 0.9143 0.8359 13.90%
5.6657=0.9143
6.97-
2013 6.97 0.4⋅6.58+0.6⋅5.6657=6.0314 0.9386 0.8809 13.47%
6.0314=0.9386
7.68-
2014 7.68 0.4⋅6.97+0.6⋅6.0314=6.4069 1.2731 1.6209 16.58%
6.4069=1.2731
8.03-
2015 8.03 0.4⋅7.68+0.6⋅6.4069=6.9161 1.1139 1.2407 13.87%
6.9161=1.1139
2016 8.8 0.4⋅8.03+0.6⋅6.9161=7.3617 8.8-7.3617=1.4383 1.4383 2.0688 16.34%
10.0
2017 0.4⋅8.8+0.6⋅7.3617=7.937 10.04-7.937=2.103 2.103 4.4226 20.95%
4
2018 0.4⋅10.04+0.6⋅7.937=8.7782
Total 17.7455 21.0633 338.05%

3
1. Mean absolute deviation (MAD)
MAE = 1 ∑|ei| = 17.7455 = 1.0439
n 17

2. Mean squared error (MSE)

MSE = 1 ∑|e2i| = 21.0633 = 1.239
n 17

3. α = 0.6
Exponential Error
Year Sales Error |Error| |%Error|
Smoothing(α=0.6) 2
1991 1.68 1.68
2001 2.54 0.6⋅1.68+0.4⋅1.68=1.68 2.54-1.68=0.86 0.86 0.7396 33.86%
2002 2.38 0.6⋅2.54+0.4⋅1.68=2.196 2.38-2.196=0.184 0.184 0.0339 7.73%
2003 2.73 0.6⋅2.38+0.4⋅2.196=2.3064 2.73-2.3064=0.4236 0.4236 0.1794 15.52%
2004 3.46 0.6⋅2.73+0.4⋅2.3064=2.5606 3.46-2.5606=0.8994 0.8994 0.809 26%
2005 3.92 0.6⋅3.46+0.4⋅2.5606=3.1002 3.92-3.1002=0.8198 0.8198 0.672 20.91%
2006 4.45 0.6⋅3.92+0.4⋅3.1002=3.5921 4.45-3.5921=0.8579 0.8579 0.736 19.28%
2007 5.08 0.6⋅4.45+0.4⋅3.5921=4.1068 5.08-4.1068=0.9732 0.9732 0.947 19.16%
2008 5.28 0.6⋅5.08+0.4⋅4.1068=4.6907 5.28-4.6907=0.5893 0.5893 0.3472 11.16%
2009 5.17 0.6⋅5.28+0.4⋅4.6907=5.0443 5.17-5.0443=0.1257 0.1257 0.0158 2.43%
2010 5.78 0.6⋅5.17+0.4⋅5.0443=5.1197 5.78-5.1197=0.6603 0.6603 0.436 11.42%
2011 6.31 0.6⋅5.78+0.4⋅5.1197=5.5159 6.31-5.5159=0.7941 0.7941 0.6306 12.58%
2012 6.58 0.6⋅6.31+0.4⋅5.5159=5.9924 6.58-5.9924=0.5876 0.5876 0.3453 8.93%
2013 6.97 0.6⋅6.58+0.4⋅5.9924=6.3449 6.97-6.3449=0.6251 0.6251 0.3907 8.97%
2014 7.68 0.6⋅6.97+0.4⋅6.3449=6.72 7.68-6.72=0.96 0.96 0.9216 12.50%
2015 8.03 0.6⋅7.68+0.4⋅6.72=7.296 8.03-7.296=0.734 0.734 0.5388 9.14%
2016 8.8 0.6⋅8.03+0.4⋅7.296=7.7364 8.8-7.7364=1.0636 1.0636 1.1313 12.09%
10.0
2017 0.6⋅8.8+0.4⋅7.7364=8.3746 10.04-8.3746=1.6654 1.6654 2.7737 16.59%
4
2018 0.6⋅10.04+0.4⋅8.3746=9.3738
Total 12.823 11.648 248.26%

1. Mean absolute deviation (MAD)

MAE = 1 ∑|ei| = 12.823 = 0.7543
4
 n 17

2. Mean squared error (MSE)

MSE = 1 ∑|e2i| = 11.648 = 0.6852
n 17
4. α = 0.8
Yea Exponential Smoothing Error
Sales Error |Error| |%Error|
r (α=0.8) 2
1991 1.68 1.68
2001 2.54 0.8⋅1.68+0.2⋅1.68=1.68 2.54-1.68=0.86 0.86 0.7396 33.86%
2002 2.38 0.8⋅2.54+0.2⋅1.68=2.368 2.38-2.368=0.012 0.012 0.0001 0.50%
2003 2.73 0.8⋅2.38+0.2⋅2.368=2.3776 2.73-2.3776=0.3524 0.3524 0.1242 12.91%
2004 3.46 0.8⋅2.73+0.2⋅2.3776=2.6595 3.46-2.6595=0.8005 0.8005 0.6408 23.14%
2005 3.92 0.8⋅3.46+0.2⋅2.6595=3.2999 3.92-3.2999=0.6201 0.6201 0.3845 15.82%
2006 4.45 0.8⋅3.92+0.2⋅3.2999=3.796 4.45-3.796=0.654 0.654 0.4277 14.70%
2007 5.08 0.8⋅4.45+0.2⋅3.796=4.3192 5.08-4.3192=0.7608 0.7608 0.5788 14.98%
2008 5.28 0.8⋅5.08+0.2⋅4.3192=4.9278 5.28-4.9278=0.3522 0.3522 0.124 6.67%
2009 5.17 0.8⋅5.28+0.2⋅4.9278=5.2096 5.17-5.2096=-0.0396 0.0396 0.0016 0.77%
2010 5.78 0.8⋅5.17+0.2⋅5.2096=5.1779 5.78-5.1779=0.6021 0.6021 0.3625 10.42%
2011 6.31 0.8⋅5.78+0.2⋅5.1779=5.6596 6.31-5.6596=0.6504 0.6504 0.423 10.31%
2012 6.58 0.8⋅6.31+0.2⋅5.6596=6.1799 6.58-6.1799=0.4001 0.4001 0.1601 6.08%
2013 6.97 0.8⋅6.58+0.2⋅6.1799=6.5 6.97-6.5=0.47 0.47 0.2209 6.74%
2014 7.68 0.8⋅6.97+0.2⋅6.5=6.876 7.68-6.876=0.804 0.804 0.6464 10.47%
2015 8.03 0.8⋅7.68+0.2⋅6.876=7.5192 8.03-7.5192=0.5108 0.5108 0.2609 6.36%
2016 8.8 0.8⋅8.03+0.2⋅7.5192=7.9278 8.8-7.9278=0.8722 0.8722 0.7607 9.91%
2017 10.04 0.8⋅8.8+0.2⋅7.9278=8.6256 10.04-8.6256=1.4144 1.4144 2.0006 14.09%
2018 0.8⋅10.04+0.2⋅8.6256=9.7571
Total 10.1755 7.8565 197.71%

1. Mean absolute deviation (MAD)

MAE = 1 ∑|ei| = 10.1755 = 0.5986
n 17

2. Mean squared error (MSE)

MSE = 1 ∑|e2i| = 7.8565 = 0.4621
n 17
5
 α MAD MSE
0. 1.7092 3.3034
2
0. 1.0439 1.239
4
0. 0.7543 0.6852
6
0. 0.5986 0.4621
8

Conclusion:
The average absolute deviation is a statistical metric used to assess how evenly distributed the data are with
respect to a given mean. This demonstrates the variety of data that each data collection includes, to put it
another way. A larger mean absolute deviation value indicates more data turbulence (the data is more spread
out).
Absolute deviation from the mean is a statistical measure of how much a data point deviates from the mean on
average (MAD). So, we draw the conclusion that the MAD statistic is useful for assessing the dispersion of
outlying data points relative to the mean.

The MAD value will be low if the average difference (absolute value) between each data point and the mean is
minimal and the data are closely clustered around the mean. The disparity between the extreme values is greater
with a higher MAD.

Calculate the mean absolute deviation to see whether the mean accurately predicts the values in the collection.
When the MAD rises, the mean loses some of its significance as a stability measure. Finding an accurate MSE
value is difficult. While numbers around 0 imply an optimal model, lower values are desirable.

2. Answer:
Introduction:
Based on how rapidly they vary, a statistical concept known as correlation demonstrates how closely connected
two or more variables are. In other words, if the two variables rise or fall at the same pace, there is a positive
connection. A negative correlation, on the other hand, indicates that one variable is expanding while the other is
shrinking.
The fact that two variables have a high correlation may be evidence that one is more predictive than the other. It
is plausible to believe that the second variable was the root cause of the first change given that the change in
6
one variable may be used to predict the change in another. But, a simply shared history is inadequate to forge
any kind of bond. One hypothesis is that both variables are equally affected by an unidentified component. In
the context of consumer behaviour patterns, knowing the distinction between correlation and causation may be
useful. An example of this in marketing is when companies link their goods to things like booze and diapers.

Hence, children who watch a lot of TV are more prone to bully other children. Studies with comparable results
usually support the idea that children who watch too much TV develop into aggressive bullies as adults.
Unfortunately, the study did not prove cause and effect; it merely showed a link between the two. There were
probably factors at play that were beyond the protagonist's control, including a lack of parental supervision.

Concept And Application

a) Correlations between Migration of Persons from other states (Census of India) & Total MSMEs
In
Migrati
on of
Persons
from
other
states
Total (Census (X- (Y –
MSMEs of India) X- Y– Mean of X) Mean of y) (X-Mean of X)*
(X) (Y) Mean of X Mean of y ^2 ^2 (Y-Mean of y)
- -
284291.37 1606187.62 80821585899.3 2579838686703. 456625288419.2
6061 81267 5 5 9 14 3
351576.62 123606123246.
641929 1591890 5 -95564.625 39 9132597551.39 -33598288326.89
- -
229420.37 1551444.62 52633708465.1 2406980424441. 355933007659.2
60932 136010 5 5 4 39 3
- -
270163.37 1191755.62 72988249191.3 1420281469719. 321968721825.2
20189 495699 5 5 9 14 3
902520 1111954 612167.62 - 374749201098. 331200969375.3 -
5 575500.625 14 9 352302850792.2
7
 7
- -
279143.37 1053488.62 77921023806.3 1109838283004. 294074370306.6
11209 633966 5 5 9 39 1
-
220594.37 - 48661878281.6 176220810528.8
69758 1267668 5 419786.625 4 9 92602568175.23
- -
126531.37 4642610.37 16010188859.3 21553831094057 587435874338.0
163821 6330065 5 5 9 .60 2
- -
281732.37 1417765.62 79373131123.1 2010059367431. 399430476724.6
8620 269689 5 5 4 64 1
517025.62 2228620.37 267315496906. 4966748775865. 1152253842272.
807378 3916075 5 5 64 14 11
- -
104866.37 1938863.37 10996956605.6 3759191186916. 203321573756.5
185486 3626318 5 5 4 39 2
- -
275678.37 1291950.62 75998566442.6 1669136417437. 356162848880.2
14674 395504 5 5 4 89 3
- -
280953.37 1532267.62 78934798923.8 2347844074623. 430495760646.9
9399 155187 5 5 9 14 8
-
132539.37 17566685925.3 258131441405.6
157813 2195521 5 508066.375 9 4 -67338799801.02
1560205.37 2434240812178.
332872 3247660 42519.625 5 1807918510.14 89 66339347467.98
- -
164418.37 1033031.62 27033402037.6 1067154338250. 169849381106.1
125934 654423 5 5 4 14 1
643940.62 1056877.37 414659528525. 1116989785786. 680566277405.8
934293 2744332 5 5 39 89 6
1402506.6 7399925.37 1967024833168 54758895555568 10378444362943
1692859 9087380 25 5 .89 .90 .10

8
 - -
255929.37 1667354.62 65499844987.8 2780071445508. 426725027079.6
34423 20100 5 5 9 89 1
- -
288144.37 1579539.62 83027180844.1 2494945426945. 455135458033.3
2208 107915 5 5 4 14 6
- -
287114.37 1646074.62 82434664331.6 2709561671068. 472611687160.2
3238 41380 5 5 4 89 3
- -
288809.37 1579434.62 83410855087.8 2494613734648. 456155526899.6
1543 108020 5 5 9 89 1
-
171061.37 - 29261994016.8 692820880611.8 142384410885.6
119291 855096 5 832358.625 9 9 1
- -
279813.37 1347487.62 78295524828.8 1815722899528. 377045060121.9
10539 339967 5 5 9 14 8
- 641351712969.1
203394 2488299 86958.375 800844.375 7561758982.64 4 -69640125477.89
282193.62 79633241990.6 840601774281.3 258727355548.4
572546 2604298 5 916843.375 4 9 8
- -
289477.37 1626291.62 83797150636.8 2644824449545. 470774630589.4
875 61163 5 5 9 14 8
742137.62 550768254440.
1032490 1650771 5 -36683.625 64 1345688343.14 -27224298333.89
- -
284416.37 1600076.62 80892674368.1 2560245205871. 455087993404.7
5936 87378 5 5 4 39 3
597060.62 2374478.37 356481389925. 5638147553342. 1417707542626.
887413 4061933 5 5 39 64 48
-
249909.37 - 62454695712.8 190863806740.1 109180314033.9
40443 1250575 5 436879.625 9 4 8
231190 2381045 - 693590.375 3500186615.64 481067608292.6 -41034453862.14

9
 59162.375 4
5399854 5435122693787 12996189994854 18814384995527
9291276 8 0 0 .5 4 .5

Mean of X = ∑X/N = 9291276/32 = 290352.38

Mean of Y = ∑Y/N = 53998548/32 = 1687454.63

R Calculation ( formula)
r = ∑ ((X – Mean of X) *(Y – Mean of Y)) /√∑ (X- Mean of X) ^2*∑ (Y- Mean of Y) ^2)

r = 18814384995527.5 /√ ((5435122693787.5) *(129961899948544))

r = 0.7079

B) Correlations between Migration of Persons from other states (Census of India) & Active Companies
In
Migrati
on of
Persons
from
other
states
Active (Census (X-Mean of X)
Companies of India) X-Mean Y – Mean (X-Mean of (Y - Mean of *(Y - Mean of
(X) (Y) of X of Y X)^2 Y)^2 Y)
- -
37269.7 1606187.6 1389031935.7 2579838686703.1 59862161043.4
319 81267 2 3 0 4 8
78621.2 6181305865.3
116210 1591890 8 -95564.63 9 9132597551.39 -7513413259.68
- -
37351.7 1551444.6 1395150893.5 2406980424441.3 57949123289.2
237 136010 2 3 8 9 0
6346 495699 - - 976107474.89 1420281469719.1 37233685810.6
31242.7 1191755.6 4 1

10
 2 3
-
16721.7 -
20867 1111954 2 575500.63 279615877.95 331200969375.39 9623359591.70
- -
29632.7 1053488.6 1109838283004.3 31217732130.9
7956 633966 2 3 878098020.52 9 5
-
30479.7 - 12794978265.0
7109 1267668 2 419786.63 929013255.08 176220810528.89 1
178942. 4642610.3 32020340018. 21553831094057. 830759291457.
216531 6330065 28 8 95 60 42
- -
33463.7 1417765.6 1119820472.5 2010059367431.6 47443710128.4
4125 269689 2 3 8 4 2
25030.2 2228620.3 4966748775865.1 55782994785.7
62619 3916075 8 8 626514979.45 4 3
-
1938863.3 3759191186916.3 13030555438.0
30868 3626318 -6720.72 8 45168060.52 9 5
- -
34244.7 1291950.6 1172700762.2 1669136417437.8 44242485792.0
3344 395504 2 3 7 9 1
- -
34843.7 1532267.6 1214084736.3 2347844074623.1 53389902175.2
2745 155187 2 3 3 4 3
- -
28034.7 14243497929.4
9554 2195521 2 508066.38 785945455.39 258131441405.64 6
30744.2 1560205.3 2434240812178.8 47967392856.7
68333 3247660 8 8 945210829.58 9 6
-
1033031.6 1067154338250.1
31244 654423 -6344.72 3 40255456.02 4 6554295120.48
22315 2744332 - 1056877.3 233286484.45 1116989785786.8 -
15273.7 8 9 16142447778.9

11
 2 9
194323. 7399925.3 37761537635. 54758895555568. 1437977779875
231912 9087380 28 8 77 90 .14
- -
37154.7 1667354.6 1380473125.3 2780071445508.8 61950092148.3
434 20100 2 3 9 9 9
- -
37028.7 1579539.6 1371126012.2 2494945426945.1 58488328528.6
560 107915 2 3 7 4 1
- -
37522.7 1646074.6 1407954422.3 2709561671068.8 61765195195.3
66 41380 2 3 9 9 9
- -
37353.7 1579434.6 1395300304.4 2494613734648.8 58997756766.2
235 108020 2 3 5 9 6
-
22384.7 - 18632113719.7
15204 855096 2 832358.63 501075633.52 692820880611.89 6
- -
36306.7 1347487.6 1318177826.3 1815722899528.1 48922854219.9
1282 339967 2 3 9 4 8
- -
20679.7 16561236437.5
16909 2488299 2 800844.38 427650767.58 641351712969.14 2
37022 2604298 -566.72 916843.38 321170.14 840601774281.39 -519592331.43
- -
37586.7 1626291.6 1412761426.3 2644824449545.1 61126965914.3
2 61163 2 3 9 4 6
39086.2 1527737381.9
76675 1650771 8 -36683.63 5 1345688343.14 -1433826484.02
- -
37271.7 1600076.6 1389181018.5 2560245205871.3 59637605945.4
317 87378 2 3 8 9 5
33274.2 2374478.3 1107177792.7 5638147553342.6 79009061271.7
70863 4061933 8 8 0 4 9
4792 1250575 - - 1075624760.7 190863806740.14 14328218188.7

12
 32796.7
2 436879.63 7 3
98255.2 9654100293.5 68148917367.9
135844 2381045 8 693590.38 2 481067608292.64 2
5399854 111961850150 12996189994854 3254361431929
1202839 8 0.00 0.00 .47 4.00 .63

Mean of X = ∑X/N = 1202839/32 = 37588.71875

Mean of Y = ∑Y/N = 53998548/32 = 1687454.63

R Calculation (formula)
r = ∑ ((X – Mean of X) *(Y – Mean of Y)) /√∑ (X- Mean of X) ^2*∑ (Y- Mean of Y) ^2)

r = 3254361431929.63 / √ ((111961850150.47) (129961899948544))

r = 0.8531

C) Correlations between Migration of Persons from other states (Census of India) & 2017-18 GSDP -
CURRENT PRICES (` in Crore)
In
Migratio
2017-18 n of
GSDP – Persons
CURREN from
T other
PRICES states
(` in (Census
Crore) of India) X-Mean Y - Mean (X- Mean (Y - Mean (X-Mean of X)*
(X) (Y) of X of Y of X) ^2 of Y) ^2 (Y - Mean of Y)
- -
537374.0 1606187.6 288770849461.8 2579838686703.1
7871 81267 3 3 8 4 863123518990.11
1001067. 1002137078057.
1546313 1591890 97 -95564.63 25 9132597551.39 -95666685033.11
22432 136010 - - 273333465644.8 2406980424441.3 811115467212.77

13
 522813.0 1551444.6
3 3 1 9
- -
256554.0 1191755.6 1420281469719.1
288691 495699 3 3 65819970950.63 4 305749709858.61
-
484740 1111954 -60505.03 575500.63 3660858806.56 331200969375.39 34820683300.02
- -
506485.0 1053488.6 256527086880.3 1109838283004.3
38760 633966 3 3 1 9 533576219154.65
-
484740 1267668 -60505.03 419786.63 3660858806.56 176220810528.89 25399202863.96
141578.9 4642610.3 21553831094057.
686824 6330065 7 8 20044604392.31 60 657295989200.55
- -
474751.0 1417765.6 225388541672.9 2010059367431.6
70494 269689 3 3 4 4 673085692539.55
782822.9 2228620.3 612811800402.5 4966748775865.1 1744615218174.2
1328068 3916075 7 8 6 4 4
104346.9 1938863.3 3759191186916.3
649592 3626318 7 8 10888289887.31 9 202314516001.65
- -
406894.0 1291950.6 165562752666.8 1669136417437.8
138351 395504 3 3 8 9 525686997982.21
- -
407818.0 1532267.6 166315546612.6 2347844074623.1
137427 155187 3 3 3 4 624886366175.61
-
269002.0 -
276243 2195521 3 508066.38 72362092816.63 258131441405.64 136670886884.82
812333.9 1560205.3 659886476785.1 2434240812178.8 1267407824338.8
1357579 3247660 7 8 3 9 3
-
156331.9 1033031.6 1067154338250.1 -
701577 654423 7 3 24439684453.25 4 161495867717.26
724729 2744332 179483.9 1056877.3 32214495038.25 1116989785786.8 189692545747.08

14
 7 8 9
1866354. 7399925.3 3483280869377. 54758895555568. 13810887492010.
2411600 9087380 97 8 81 90 50
- -
521410.0 1667354.6 271868420688.1 2780071445508.8
23835 20100 3 3 3 9 869375427126.08
- -
514455.0 1579539.6 264663979178.4 2494945426945.1
30790 107915 3 3 4 4 812602107139.99
- -
526508.0 1646074.6 277210706970.7 2709561671068.8
18737 41380 3 3 5 9 866671510099.33
- -
520753.0 1579434.6 271183719556.0 2494613734648.8
24492 108020 3 3 6 9 822495368629.96
-
110476.0 -
434769 855096 3 832358.63 12204953480.75 692820880611.89 91955677466.71
- -
512283.0 1347487.6 262433904106.6 1815722899528.1
32962 339967 3 3 9 4 690295045106.86
478636 2488299 -66609.03 800844.38 4436763044.06 641351712969.14 -53343468000.76
289924.9
835170 2604298 7 916843.38 84056487504.69 840601774281.39 265815786845.52
- -
521750.0 1626291.6 272223095109.3 2644824449545.1
23495 61163 3 3 8 4 848517706165.36
916595.9 840148169928.7
1461841 1650771 7 -36683.63 5 1345688343.14 -33624062794.14
- -
501026.0 1600076.6 251027083990.1 2560245205871.3
44219 87378 3 3 3 9 801680041119.65
915197.9 2374478.3 837587322004.1 5638147553342.6 2173117785640.8
1460443 4061933 7 8 3 4 0
222836 1250575 - - 103947583431.5 190863806740.14 140853936669.11
322409.0 436879.63 6

15
 3
454339.9 206424807203.7
999585 2381045 7 693590.38 5 481067608292.64 315125829302.80
5399854 1132652231891 12996189994854 30487362694432.
17447841 8 0 0 1 4 4

Mean of X = ∑X/N = 17447841/32 = 545245.0313

Mean of Y = ∑Y/N = 53998548/32 = 1687454.63

R Calculation (formula)
r = ∑ ((X – Mean of X) *(Y – Mean of Y)) /√∑ (X- Mean of X) ^2*∑ (Y- Mean of Y) ^2)

r = 30487362694432.4/ √ ((11326522318911) (129961899948544))

r = 0.7946

D) Correlations between Total MSMEs & Active Companies

Total Active Y– (X-Mean of X)
MSMEs Companies X-Mean Mean (X-Mean (Y - Mean *(Y - Mean of
(X) (Y) of X of Y of X)^2 of Y)^2 Y)
- -
284291.3 37269.7 80821585899.3 10595459589.3
6061 319 8 2 9 1389031935.70 0
351576.6 78621.2 123606123246. 27641404715.0
641929 116210 3 8 39 6181305865.39 5
- -
229420.3 37351.7 52633708465.1
60932 237 8 2 4 1395150893.58 8569245322.52
20189 6346 - - 72988249191.3 976107474.89 8440638341.68
270163.3 31242.7 9
8 2
- -
612167.6 16721.7 374749201098. 10236494853.1
902520 20867 3 2 14 279615877.95 1
11209 7956 - - 77921023806.3 878098020.52 8271777122.30

16
 279143.3 29632.7
8 2 9
- -
220594.3 30479.7 48661878281.6
69758 7109 8 2 4 929013255.08 6723654507.83
- -
126531.3 178942. 16010188859.3 32020340018.9 22641812892.2
163821 216531 8 28 9 5 0
- -
281732.3 33463.7 79373131123.1
8620 4125 8 2 4 1119820472.58 9427812959.77
517025.6 25030.2 267315496906. 12941296807.2
807378 62619 3 8 64 626514979.45 1
-
104866.3 10996956605.6
185486 30868 8 -6720.72 4 45168060.52 704777412.71
- -
275678.3 34244.7 75998566442.6
14674 3344 8 2 4 1172700762.27 9440528417.33
- -
280953.3 34843.7 78934798923.8
9399 2745 8 2 9 1214084736.33 9789460380.36
- -
132539.3 28034.7 17566685925.3
157813 9554 8 2 9 785945455.39 3715704101.43
30744.2
332872 68333 42519.63 8 1807918510.14 945210829.58 1307235309.64
-
164418.3 27033402037.6
125934 31244 8 -6344.72 4 40255456.02 1043188346.71
-
643940.6 15273.7 414659528525.
934293 22315 3 2 39 233286484.45 -9835367997.95
1402506. 194323. 1967024833168 37761537635.7 272539689344.
1692859 231912 63 28 .89 7 86
34423 434 - - 65499844987.8 1380473125.39 9508983947.99

17
 255929.3 37154.7
8 2 9
- -
288144.3 37028.7 83027180844.1 10669617021.2
2208 560 8 2 4 1371126012.27 7
- -
287114.3 37522.7 82434664331.6 10773311942.2
3238 66 8 2 4 1407954422.39 1
- -
288809.3 37353.7 83410855087.8 10788104166.1
1543 235 8 2 9 1395300304.45 1
- -
171061.3 22384.7 29261994016.8
119291 15204 8 2 9 501075633.52 3829160768.36
- -
279813.3 36306.7 78295524828.8 10159105508.6
10539 1282 8 2 9 1318177826.39 1
-
- 20679.7
203394 16909 86958.38 2 7561758982.64 427650767.58 1798274737.96
282193.6 79633241990.6
572546 37022 3 -566.72 4 321170.14 -159924418.42
- -
289477.3 37586.7 83797150636.8 10880504678.6
875 2 8 2 9 1412761426.39 1
742137.6 39086.2 550768254440. 29007399936.9
1032490 76675 3 8 64 1527737381.95 6
- -
284416.3 37271.7 80892674368.1 10600687136.8
5936 317 8 2 4 1389181018.58 9
597060.6 33274.2 356481389925. 19866763159.5
887413 70863 3 8 39 1107177792.70 5
- -
249909.3 32796.7 62454695712.8
40443 4792 8 2 9 1075624760.77 8196207484.86
231190 135844 - 98255.2 3500186615.64 9654100293.52 -5813015795.04

18
 59162.38 8
5435122693787 111961850150. 478543377211.
9291276 1202839 0 0 .5 469 375

Mean of X = ∑X/N = 9291276/32 = 290352.38

Mean of Y = ∑Y/N = 1202839/32 = 37588.71875

R Calculation (formula)
r = ∑ ((X – Mean of X) *(Y – Mean of Y)) /√∑ (X- Mean of X) ^2*∑ (Y- Mean of Y) ^2)

r = 478543377211.375/ √ ((5435122693787.5) (111961850150.469))

r = 0.6135

3.
Answer: a)
Introduction:
Mean: Measures of central tendency (mean, mode, and median) are often used in statistical analysis. The
"mean" is the average of the numbers shown. This condition indicates that a given data collection has values
that are uniformly dispersed. Common central tendency measurements include the mean, median, and mode. It
is possible to get the average of a group of numbers by adding them all up and then dividing by the final tally.
In a set of numbers ordered by some measure, the median is the middle number. Yet, the mode is the item that
shows up on the list the most often.

What does the term "Standard Deviation" really mean?

How far the data is off from the mean is shown by the standard deviation. The standard deviation quantifies the
average amount by which a group strays from the mean. Since it can be used to convert back to the original
units of measurement, the coefficient of variation (CV) is a widely accepted and widely used measure of
variability. When the data points cluster close to the mean, the variance is moderate; when they are dispersed, it
is high. One technique to quantify the extent to which values depart from the mean is by computing the
standard deviation. As a quantifier of dispersion, the standard deviation has achieved near-universal acclaim.
Variations in a single statistic could have an impact on the standard deviation. The "ecology" in issue consists
of all the people who work in the building business. Moreover, it may be used to the resolution of a wide
variety of challenging statistical issues.
19
Concept and Application:

Calculation of mean and standard deviation of Number of Indigenous (Desi) Total Cattle

Number of Indigenous
State District (Desi) Total Cattle (X) dx = X – Mean of X dx^2
UTTARAKHAN
D Uttarkashi 82991 -15109 228281881
UTTARAKHAN
D Chamoli 132165 34065 1160424225
UTTARAKHAN
D Rudraprayag 71277 -26823 719473329
UTTARAKHAN
D Tehri Garhwal 80833 -17267 298149289
UTTARAKHAN
D Dehradun 87753 -10347 107060409
UTTARAKHAN
D Garhwal 235412 137312 18854585344
UTTARAKHAN
D Pithoragarh 108417 10317 106440489
UTTARAKHAN
D Bageshwar 70863 -27237 741854169
UTTARAKHAN
D Almora 132038 33938 1151787844
UTTARAKHAN
D Champawat 45506 -52594 2766128836
UTTARAKHAN
D Nainital 101009 2909 8462281
UTTARAKHAN Udham Singh
D Nagar 63311 -34789 1210274521
UTTARAKHAN
D Hardwar 63728 -34372 1181434384
Total 1275303 3 28534357001

Mean of X = ∑X/N

= 1275303/13
20
= 98100

Standard deviation of X (formula)

σ = √∑dx2 – {(∑dx)^2}/n
n

= √ 28534357001 – {(3)^2}/13
13

= √ 28534357001-0.6923
13

= √ 28534357000.3077
13

= √ 2194950538.4852

= 46850.2992

Calculation of mean and standard deviation of Total Buffalo

Total Buffalo
State District (y) dy = Y-Mean of Y dy^2
UTTARAKHAND Uttarkashi 25945 -40695 1656083025
UTTARAKHAND Chamoli 37922 -28718 824723524
UTTARAKHAND Rudraprayag 31115 -35525 1262025625
UTTARAKHAND Tehri Garhwal 79394 12754 162664516
UTTARAKHAND Dehradun 52185 -14455 208947025
UTTARAKHAND Garhwal 30076 -36564 1336926096
UTTARAKHAND Pithoragarh 37056 -29584 875213056
UTTARAKHAND Bageshwar 31432 -35208 1239603264
UTTARAKHAND Almora 77444 10804 116726416
UTTARAKHAND Champawat 18599 -48041 2307937681
UTTARAKHAND Nainital 77759 11119 123632161
UTTARAKHAND Udham Singh Nagar 152911 86271 7442685441

21
 UTTARAKHAND Hardwar 214480 147840 21856665600
Total 866318 -2 39413833430

Mean of Y = Total of Y/N

= 866318/13

= 66640

Standard deviation of Y

σ = √∑dy2 – {(∑dy)^2}/n
n

= √ 39413833430 – {(-2)^2}/13
13

= √ 39413833430 -0.3077
13

= √ 39413833429.6923
13

= √ 3031833340.7456

= 55062.0862

3.B)
Answer:
Introduction:
Time Series Components
Since you last inquired, it's conceivable that the cost of that item has increased or decreased. This good might
be something simple like bread, something priceless like gold, or something intricate like fuel or diesel. The
icing on the cake is that bank interest rates are increasing. Historically, mortgage rates have been declining. So,
just what are they constructed of? I'm not sure how exactly they are helping us. To be more specific, we have
accumulated these figures throughout time.
22
A "time series" is a collection of data that has been organized chronologically. It's like obtaining the
information in reverse time. Using time as a unifying factor helps to link and contextualize the event's many
elements. Time may be calculated in hours, months, and years.

How one variable influences another may be shown via a time series. Both can be assessed objectively, despite
the fact that one is time and the other is something else. In a perfect world, the relationship would cause the
variable to rise with time. It's a myth that all relationships deteriorate with time.
Concept ad Application:
The group of persons employed in the building sector is referred to as the "ecology" in this context. Moving
averages, exponential smoothing, and linear trend with seasonality are common methodologies used in time
series analysis.
The time series analysis may need more extensive computations when the time series data exhibits complex
behaviour and patterns. The generalizability of the model and the degree to which the data are complicated
determine how well the time series prediction performs.
The data seem to show a long-term trend or fluctuation. That is a bigger change than I had anticipated. We
consider both the immediate and long term while making judgments at this table. It alludes to a time series
tendency that may be sluggish yet is always advancing. Remember that the effects of global warming will
persist for a very long time. We may be able to identify cyclical movements by examining these factors over
very extended time periods, like 50 years. If just 20 years of data were supplied, long-term variations like this
would be mistaken for trends, but the swings would be clear with hundreds of years of data. All of these
changes are happening gradually, broadly, and continuously, but they're all heading in the same general
direction. While it is still unknown, it is more probable than not that a linear trend will develop (curvilinear).
There was a lot of pausing.

 Price increases;
 rising levels of environmental pollution.

Wheat is now costlier as a result of rising demand.

To find a pattern in seasonal data, all that is necessary to do is calculate the averages for a certain period of
time. There may be a pattern in the data if you observe how the moving averages change over time. Trends in
data accumulated over time may be identified using trustworthy statistical approaches.

23
 2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1
-6 -7 -7 -7 -7 -7 -8 -8 -8 -8 -8 -9 -9 -9 -9 -9 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2
968 970 972 974 976 978 980 982 984 986 988 990 992 994 996 998 000 002 004 006 008 010 012 014 016 018 020
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Productivity Groundnut (Kg./hectare) Productivity Rape seed & Mustard (Kg./hectare)

.
Conclusion:
The phrase "scientific method" has been widely used to refer to the conventional procedure often employed by
scientists, and this is OK. Scholars often use this strategy to generate new research questions. As it has the
potential to give objective findings from reliable information sources, it will have far-reaching effects on the
scientific community.

24