Assignment 1

Probability and Random Processes

MA6.102 - Monsoon 2022

Date: 07 Aug 2022 Deadline: 14 Aug 2022

Topics: Basics of probability Marks: 100

Instructions:
• Answer all the questions.
• Clearly state the assumptions made (if any) that are not specified in the question.
• Do not copy from your peers or online. Copied assignments will fetch zero marks.

Problems
1. a) Show that the null set (ϕ) is subset of every set ,i.e., ϕ ⊂ X for any set X.[2]
b) Is it true that the null set is an element of every set,i.e., ϕ ∈ X for any set X. If true prove it
otherwise provide a counterexample.[2]
c) Consider the following three sets: X = ϕ, Y = {ϕ}, Z = {{ϕ}}. Show that no two of them are
equal.[6]
2. Suppose there are infinite cards numbered 1,2,3,..... and a card is randomly drawn. Verify the following
claims:
a) All cards are equally likely to be drawn.[5]
b) All the cards have a positive probability of being picked.[5]
3. Given that the weather on 6th August 2022 is humid what is the probability that weather on 18th
November 2022 is humid. Assume that the weather tomorrow will be same as weather today with
probability p. Also assume that weather can only be dry or humid.[10]
4. SnowMan likes snowfall. He has three cousins who live in Nainital. He was on his way to Nainital when
he suddenly wanted to know if there was snowfall in Nainital at that point of time. He has decided to ask
his cousins about this knowing that each of them speaks the truth 43 of the time. He called each of his
cousins and all of them told him that it is snowing. What is the probability that it is actually snowing
in Nainital? [10]
5. Ramesh, the owner of a semi-conductor company, wants to buy a machine that manufactures chips.
Suresh owns a machine that produces faulty chips 5% of the time. Since Ramesh wanted a machine
with 100% accuracy, Suresh lied that his machine produces only good chips and asked Ramesh to test
the machine by picking 3 chips at random from a lot of 100 chips. What is the probability that Suresh
successfully sells the machine to Ramesh? [10]
6. A fair four-sided die is rolled twice. Assume that all the outcomes are equally likely. Consider X to
be the result on the first die and Y to be the result on the second die. A = {max(X, Y ) = m} and
B = {min(X, Y )} = 2. Find P (A|B) for m = 1, 2, 3. [10]
7. A doctor can reach the patient by taking different routes. If there is no traffic, then the doctor has 80%
and 60% chance of reaching the patient on time taking Route A and Route B respectively. However, if
there is traffic, then the probability of reaching the patient on time via Route A and Route B is 40% and
50% respectively. Given the chance of encountering traffic is 75% percent, calculate the total probability
of reaching the patient on time. Assume the doctor has equal probability of taking either route. [10]

8. A card is picked from one of two boxes each containing some playing cards. Box A contains all 52 cards,
while the deck in Box B has all red cards and jacks cards removed. Given the probability of picking from
Box A is 25% and that the card picked is an Ace, what is the probability that the card came from Box
B? [10]

9. A man is known to tell the truth 34 of the time. He picks a random card and reports it as Ace from a red
suit. Then he picks up another card from the deck (without replacement) and reports it to be a Hearts
card. The second card he picked is known to be an Ace. What is the probability that he was saying the
truth the first time? [20]

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