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Model Circularity
Model Circularity 1
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Dashboard: Charts & Graphs
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Driver Switch
INCOME STATEMENT
EBITDA – – – – – – – –
EBITDA Margin – – – #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Net Income – – – – – – – –
Net Income Margin – – – #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Operating – – – – – – – –
Investing – – – – – – – –
Financing – – – – – – – –
Change in Cash – – – – – – – –
Revenue EBITDA Margin Net Income Margin 1 Investing Financing Operating Change in Cash
50,000 100.0%
45,000 90.0%
40,000 80.0%
35,000 70.0%
30,000 60.0%
25,000 50.0% 1
20,000 40.0%
15,000 30.0%
10,000 20.0%
5,000 10.0%
– – –
2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026A 2027A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026A 2027A
Drivers
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Driver Switch 2
Pricing Increases
Capital Expenditure
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Working Capital
Accounts Receivable (Days) 40 40 40 40 40
Inventory (Days) 25 25 25 25 25
Accounts Payable (Days) 34 34 34 34 34
Dates Taxes
First Year of Forecast (YYYY) 2023 Tax Rate 31%
Days in Period 365 First Year Tax Depreciation 50%
Blended Tax Depreciation Rate 15.0%
Tax Basis for Assets (End of 2022) 92,164
Other Single Inputs Tax Losses (End of 2022) 69,512
Plant Capacity (Units/Day) 2,000
Dividend Payout Ratio 35%
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers
Current Tax – – –
Deferred Tax – – –
Total Tax
Net Income
Cash Flow Statement
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers
CASH BALANCE
Beginning of the Year 20,165
Increase / (Decrease)
End of the Year
Balance Sheet
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers
ASSETS
Cash
Accounts Receivable 5,008 5,533 5,321
Inventories 1,892 2,023 2,109
Total Current Assets
Total Assets
LIABILITIES
EQUITY
Check – – – – – – – –
Revenue Schedule
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers
OPERATIONS
Sales Volume (Units/Day) 1,234 1,300 1,550 1,550 1,550 1,550 1,550 1,550
Plant Capacity (Units/Day) 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000
Operational Efficiency 61.7% 65.0% 77.5% 77.5% 77.5% 77.5% 77.5% 77.5%
VOLUME
Days in Period 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365
Sales Volume (Units/Day) 1,234 1,300 1,550 1,550 1,550 1,550 1,550 1,550
Sales Volume (Units) 450,410 474,500 565,750 565,750 565,750 565,750 565,750 565,750
PRICING
REVENUE
Sales Volume (Units) 450,410 474,500 565,750 565,750 565,750 565,750 565,750 565,750
Sales Price (USD/Unit) 68.00 73.44 83.72 83.72 83.72 83.72 83.72 83.72
Revenue 30,628 34,847 47,365 47,365 47,365 47,365 47,365 47,365
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers
Sales Volume 450,410 474,500 565,750 565,750 565,750 565,750 565,750 565,750
Inflation 2.5% 3.5% 4.5% 5.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0%
VARIABLE COSTS
Materials (USD/Unit) 11.12 11.51 12.03 12.63 13.26 13.66 13.93 14.21
Packaging (USD/Unit) 1.25 1.29 1.35 1.42 1.49 1.54 1.57 1.60
Subtotal 12.37 12.80 13.38 14.05 14.75 15.19 15.50 15.81
FIXED COSTS
Labor (USD/Unit) 38.15 37.48 32.85 34.49 36.22 37.30 38.05 38.81
Utilities (USD/Unit) 19.32 18.98 16.64 17.47 18.34 18.89 19.27 19.65
Subtotal 57.47 56.46 49.49 51.96 54.56 56.19 57.32 58.47
SUMMARY
Variable Costs (USD/Unit) 12.37 12.80 13.38 14.05 14.75 15.19 15.50 15.81
Fixed Costs (USD/Unit) 57.47 56.46 49.49 51.96 54.56 56.19 57.32 58.47
Total Costs (USD/Unit) 69.84 69.26 62.86 66.01 69.31 71.39 72.82 74.27
Variable Costs 5,572 6,075 7,569 7,948 8,345 8,595 8,767 8,943
Fixed Costs 25,885 26,791 27,997 29,396 30,866 31,792 32,428 33,077
Total Costs 31,457 32,866 35,566 37,344 39,211 40,388 41,195 42,019
Working Capital Schedule
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers
Days in Period 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365
Revenue 30,628 34,847 47,365 – – – – –
COGS 31,457 32,866 35,566 – – – – –
TOTAL AMOUNTS
Accounts Receivable 5,008 5,533 5,321 – – – – –
Inventory 1,892 2,023 2,109 – – – – –
Accounts Payable 3,024 3,205 3,319 – – – – –
CASH CHANGES
Accounts Receivable (525) 212 5,321 – – – –
Inventory (131) (86) 2,109 – – – –
Accounts Payable 181 114 (3,319) – – – –
Cash from Working Capital Items (475) 240 4,111 – – – –
Depreciation Schedule
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers
Capital Expenditure – – – – –
All PP&E and capital expenditure is assumed depreciable (i.e. no land balance). ⁽¹⁾
This schedule calculates depreciation on a straight-line basis. ⁽²⁾
Asset Schedule
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers
Capital Expenditure – – – – –
TAX BASIS 1
Beginning 92,164 78,339 66,588 56,600 48,110
Capital Expenditure – – – – –
Tax Depreciation (13,825) (11,751) (9,988) (8,490) (7,217)
Ending 92,164 78,339 66,588 56,600 48,110 40,894
Model assumes no dispositions that would impact the PP&E or the Tax Basis. ⁽¹⁾
Income Tax Schedule
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers
TAX LOSSES
Beginning 69,512 69,512 69,512 68,195 65,380
Add: New Losses – – – – –
Less: Use of Tax Losses – – (1,317) (2,815) (4,089)
Ending 69,512 69,512 69,512 68,195 65,380 61,291
TAXES
Current Taxes – – – – –
Deferred Taxes – – – – –
Total Taxes – – – – –
This schedule assumes that tax losses can be carried forward indefinitely into the future. ⁽¹⁾
This schedule assumes losses do not carry back to previous periods to reduce taxable income. ⁽²⁾
Debt Schedule: Part 1
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers
CASH
Beginning Balance
Increase / (Decrease)
Ending Balance
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers
AVAILABLE CASH
Beginning Balance
Increase / (Decrease)
Ending Balance
Interest Expense
Less: Interest Income
Net Interest Expense
Equity Schedule
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers
COMMON EQUITY
Net Income
Payout Ratio 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0%
Dividend
RETAINED EARNINGS