Bilal Thesis-Draft.

CYPRUS INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY
INSTITUTE OF GRADUATE STUDIES AND RESEARCH
ACCOUNTING & FINANCE DEPARTMENT
(MS THESIS)
BILAL AMJAD
22211358
NICOSIA - 2023
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ACCOUNTING & FINANCE DEPARTMENT
THE FINANCIAL CRISIS OF FLOODING IN COUNTRY
PRODUCTION AND RESOURCES
(MS THESIS)
BILAL AMJAD
22211358
ii
SUPERVISOR
Asst. Prof. Dr. Mehrshad Radmehr Hashemipour
NICOSIA - 2023
THESIS APPROVAL CERTIFICATE
The thesis study of Accounting & Finance Department graduate student Bilal Amjad student
number 22211358 entitled ‘‘The Financial Crisis of Flooding in Country Production and
Resources” has been approved with unanimity/majority of votes by the jury and has been
accepted as a Master in Accounting & Finance Department.
Thesis Defense Date:
Jury Members Signature
Supervisor
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Asst. Prof. Dr. Mehrshad Radmehr Hashemipour ………………….
1) Member
…………………
2) Member
……………………
Director of the Institute
Prof. Dr. Tahir ÇELİK
DECLARATION
Name and Surname: Bilal Amjad
Title of the Thesis: The Financial Crisis of Flooding in Country Production and Resources
Supervisor: Asst. Prof. Dr. Mehrshad Radmehr Hashemipour
Year: 2023
I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in
accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these
rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not
original to this work.
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I hereby declare that the Cyprus International University, Institute of Graduate Studies and
Research is allowed to store and make available electronically the present thesis.
Date: __________________
Signature: __________________
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I would like to thank Almighty Allah for giving me strength and for his
grace, wisdom and mercy, enabling me to complete my report successfully. I
am deeply indebted to my mother and to all individuals and groups of people
who through their contribution have directly or indirectly enabled me to
prepare this report. I would also like to acknowledge the contribution of the
lectures and special acknowledgement goes to my supervisor Asst. Prof.Dr.
Mehrshad Radmehr Hashemipour whose patience, criticism, guidance,
constructiveness, and tolerance have enabled me to write this report. Lastly
my appreciation goes to my friends for their support, love, and care
throughout my academic trial.
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ABSTRACT
The co-occurrence of natural and anthropogenic disasters poses significant threats to

human survival, with an increase in the frequency and severity of natural disasters across
the globe over the past few decades. The health, social, and economic repercussions of
natural disasters are widespread, with over 255 million people affected annually and
average annual losses of around US $67 billion. The effects of flooding on a country's
economy and resources are the subject of this research. The study's overarching goal is
to learn more about how frequent and severe floods affect food security in terms of
availability, distribution, quality, and people's ability to earn a living. The indirect
influence of floods on agricultural productivity and the predictability of food supply
vulnerability in the post-flood period are also examined in this research. Panel data
models are used to examine data from Pakistan and Bangladesh including food
production, agricultural practices, and social and economic dynamics from 2012 to 2020
in order to reach these goals. The relationships between food and agricultural indicators
and other socio-economic variables are studied using three-panel data models: fixed
effects, random effects, and pooled ordinary least squares (OLS). According to the
results of the fixed effects model, "NunnourishedMl" is strongly impacted by both the
constant term and "Cerealimportdepenratio." 91.5% of the variance in
"NunnourishedML" can be attributed to independent variables and random effects, as
shown by the inside R-squared value. The findings from the random effects model are
consistent with the existence of cross-sectional dependence. Significant correlations
between food security indicators and selected independent variables are also seen in the
pooled OLS model. The research emphasizes the need for intervention techniques to
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reduce potential increases in food insecurity owing to heightened flood frequency and
shows the need to understand the link between floods and food poverty. In order to
successfully address the issue of food insecurity, it is necessary to develop responses
that are specific to each location, taking into account its terrain, climate, and
socioeconomic aspects. Non-agricultural employment opportunities may act as backup
plans in flood-affected regions, while drainage and solid waste management can help
decrease floods. Particularly in high-risk, flood-prone, and least-developed areas,
international funding is crucial for implementing flood mitigation and control initiatives.
Key Words: Financial Crisis, Panel Data Models, Sustainable Food Systems, Water-
Energy-Food Nexus, and Floods.
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CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

The co-occurrence of natural and anthropogenic disasters poses substantial risks to
human survival. Natural disasters encompass geological events such as seismic activity,
including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and landslides, as well as hydrological
phenomena such as tsunamis, floods, and droughts. Natural disasters have substantial
health, social, and economic consequences. Over the past few decades, there has been a
surge in the occurrence and intensity of natural disasters worldwide. Each year, natural
disasters affect more than 255 million people. (A. Kassegn & E. Endris, 2021).
The mean yearly losses resulting from natural disasters over the last ten years were
approximately US $67 billion. Guha-Sapir, Hargitt, and Hoyois (2004) reported that
EM-DAT has documented more than 9,000 natural disasters since 1900, with the
majority of these events occurring in the last 30 years, accounting for 80% of the total
incidents. Previous scholarly investigations have shown that there are various patterns of
destruction throughout the world. In developed countries, natural calamities tend to
result in more extensive harm to infrastructure, while in developing nations, the toll on
human life is generally more substantial. Water and food are two essential factors that
have a big impact on the sustainability of the global system. Understanding the complex
relationships among water, energy, and food, which are commonly known as the water-
energy-food nexus, is an essential step in enhancing the resilience of water-food systems
and achieving efficient management of natural resources. Therefore, it can be deduced
that the matter of ensuring food security is intricately connected to water, and both are
vulnerable to fluctuating climatic conditions. The occurrence of extreme hydrological
events has led to notable water crises in various global systems, thereby posing a
potential threat to food security. The 2014 IPCC report indicates an elevation in the
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variability of precipitation patterns, while the 2005 MEA presents substantiation of a
surge in flood occurrences across multiple global regions. Additionally, it has been
noted that modifications in land utilization have the potential to intensify the probability
of flooding, particularly in areas that are vulnerable to abrupt and severe flash floods
have emphasized the significance of quantifying the effects of extreme hydrological
events on food production, given their direct implications for food security. Insufficient
access to crucial resources, infrastructure, and effective disaster management systems
primarily affects developing nations, resulting in a significant impact from such events.
Economic limitations, political instability, and armed conflicts frequently compound the
effects of natural disasters in developing areas. According to a 2015 report by the Food
and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the span of ten years from 2003 to 2013 saw the
incidence of natural hazards and disasters in developing countries affect more than 1.9
billion people, with an associated estimated cost of damages exceeding USD 494 billion.
The irregularity of precipitation can result in substantial and calamitous impacts on the
sustenance and regional financial systems of rain-dependent farming methods. In recent
decades, there has been a rise in the frequency and intensity of natural hazards, including
floods, landslides, droughts, cyclones, and earthquakes, on a global level. The
aforementioned phenomenon can be attributed to the escalation in temperature and
concomitant fluctuations in climate. Floods are commonly acknowledged as a highly
destructive and enduring peril, primarily owing to their substantial influence on human
existence, financial stability, and societal welfare. According to the Emergency Event
Database (2017) and the World Bank (2021), a substantial proportion of the global
population, estimated at 96 million, suffered severe consequences as a result of natural
calamities in 2017. Among the affected population, more than 60% experienced the
consequences of disasters related to flooding. According to Hirabayashi et al. (2013) and
Eckstein et al. (2019), flood frequency and intensity have increased noticeably in
particular areas of Southeast Asia and South Asia over the past few decades. Countries
including Bangladesh, China, Pakistan, and India have been identified as highly
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vulnerable to catastrophic flood occurrences. It is expected that the Asian region will
encounter an escalation in the magnitude and gravity of flood hazards in the forthcoming
years, which will cause regional imbalances in the timing and allocation of such hazards
and consequently result in more substantial damages suffered by the countries situated in
the region. Floods are an inherent occurrence in nature that possesses the potential to
inflict substantial harm upon human habitations, infrastructure, and agricultural
productivity, thereby representing a type of natural calamity that carries extensive
implications. Although floods have the potential to transpire in any given location,
specific regions are predisposed to these occurrences due to their geographical
positioning, climatic conditions, and topographical features. The incidence of floods has
exhibited an increasing trend in recent times, which can be attributed to the phenomenon
of climate change. The heightened occurrence of extreme weather phenomena has been
observed. (Alderman, H. and Haque, T. 2016). Food insecurity is a major issue,
particularly in developing countries where a large percentage of the population relies on
agriculture for survival. The production of crops, their distribution, and accessibility are
only a few examples of how floods may affect the availability of food. Natural disasters
like floods may reduce crop yields by damaging agricultural products, soil quality, and
physical infrastructure. Furthermore, floods have the potential to obstruct the
distribution of food supplies to consumers and commercial centers, resulting in
shortages and higher prices. The aforementioned predicament may lead to food
insecurity, defined as a lack of consistent access to nutritious food. Reference: (Barrett,
C., & Maxwell, D. (2015)).
There are secondary effects of floods on food availability and resilience in addition to
the direct effects on food supply. In the event of a flood, people may be unable to make
ends meet since their livelihoods and means of financial support have been disrupted.
Damage to infrastructure from frequent floods might reduce the number of jobs
available in these sectors, as well as the wages they pay. The availability of products and
the capacity to acquire them might suffer as a consequence of this phenomena.
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Similarly, floods may disrupt food distribution channels, leading to food shortages and
higher prices, which in turn may limit people's ability to meet their nutritional needs.
Reference: (Clay, E., N. Pillai, & C. Benson, 2018).
The considerable effects of floods on food supply and food security make their research
crucial. There is an urgent need for further study to better understand the ways in which
floods influence different systems, the elements that lead to vulnerabilities, and the best
ways to lessen the effects of floods on food distribution. In order to address a gap in the
literature, this study will analyze how floods affect people's ability to buy food and how
that relates to other aspects of the economy. The present research aims to learn more
about the impact floods have on food availability and susceptibility. The effects of
floods on people's economic activities and income are also the primary subject of this
investigation. The current investigation will also provide light on the indirect effects of
the flood on agricultural output. Potentially helpful for policymakers, development
agencies, and other relevant organizations concerned with improving food security in
vulnerable populations is the aforementioned research.
1.2 STATEMENT OF PROBLEM
According to the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) in 2012,
agriculture serves as the primary pillar of any given nation. The agricultural industry has
been observed to make up approximately 40% of the nation's economy. It employs
roughly two-thirds of the overall workforce and furnishes a means of subsistence for
roughly 90% of the rural populace. The agricultural sector in the country is largely
characterized by subsistence farming, wherein small-scale farmers cultivate limited land
areas and rely primarily on rainfall, with minimal or no irrigation systems. As much as
90 per cent of the country's food production is attributed to this practice. The prevalence
of poverty and suboptimal agricultural productivity in the region has led to a pervasive
state of food insecurity, with certain research indicating that approximately 70% of the
global population is affected. Scholars have identified various factors that influence
household food security, such as household size, farm size, income, level of education,
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sex and age of the head of household, livestock ownership, credit access, and marital
status. These factors have been found to have adverse effects on food security in
different regions, such as Khammam in India and Niger Republic. Regrettably, there
exists a dearth of information regarding the impact of flooding on food security within
the research locale, specifically the agrarian communities of the Anambra and Imo
States. These areas are particularly susceptible to flooding and possess a distinct
advantage in the cultivation of staple crops. Hence, this research aims to investigate the
effects of flooding on food supply and the relationship between flooding and food
accessibility in terms of people's economic pursuits and sources of income. (Creti, P. and
Jaspars, S., 2016)
1.3 AIM OF THE STUDY
The study's overarching goal was to examine how often flooding occurs and how it
affects food security in flood-prone areas, with a particular emphasis on how flooding
affects food supply, distribution, and quality. Also, it explores the impact of floods on
the availability and supply of food on people’s economic activities and income. The
study also determines the uncertainty of food supply vulnerability in the post-flood and
the Indirect impact of the flood on agricultural production.
1.4 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
The study's importance lies in the fact that it sheds insight on the ways in which food
security is impacted by floods and the steps that may be taken to lessen those effects.
When it comes to agricultural output, food availability, and accessibility, floods may be
a catastrophe. In the most vulnerable populations, flooding may cause food instability,
price hikes, and malnutrition. It is critical for policymakers, producers, and consumers to
have an understanding of the impacts of floods on agricultural productivity and
community food supply. Knowing this information might lead to better disaster risk
reduction plans and adaption methods, reducing the negative impact of floods on food
security. The findings of this research may be used to the design and execution of
programs to enhance food security in flood-prone regions. The results of food security
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efforts may be enhanced by first pinpointing the areas where present policies and
practices fall short. This study expands our knowledge of how floods affect agricultural
productivity and the factors that make people more vulnerable to food insecurity.
Therefore, it may improve our understanding of the complex relationships between
natural catastrophes and food security. A major reason for the study's importance is the
potential contribution it might make to the development of evidence-based policies and
interventions that improve food security outcomes in flood-prone locations. It may also
help communities adapt to the challenges that climate change brings.
1.5 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
The objective of this study is to get to
● Know about the impact of floods on food security.
● Analyze floods affect food supply and availability.
● Explore the impact of floods on the availability and supply of food on people’s
economic activities and income.
● explore the reasons for the uncertainty of food supply vulnerability in the post-
flood
● Determine the Indirect impact of the flood on agricultural production
● Examine the Adaptation of modern techniques to control food insecurities.
1.6 RESEARCH QUESTIONS
The research questions of the study are:
● What is the extent of the impact of floods on food security?
● How do floods affect food supply and availability?
● What is the impact of floods on the availability and supply of food on people's
economic activities and income?
● What are the reasons for the uncertainty of food supply vulnerability in the post-
flood period?
● How does flood affect agricultural production indirectly?
● What are the long-term effects of floods on food security and the economy?
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● What are the similarities and differences in the impact of floods on food security
in different regions and countries?
1.7 HYPOTHESIS
● Hypothesis 1: Floods have a significant negative impact on food security by
reducing food supply and availability in affected areas.
● Hypothesis 2: The whole food supply system is thrown off by floods, leading to
higher prices and less availability of food for the public.
● Hypothesis 3: Damage to infrastructure, transportation interruptions, and the
inability to accurately analyze crop damage all contribute to the post-flood
period's susceptibility to food shortages.
● Hypothesis 4: Soil erosion and lower yields are two indirect effects of floods on
agricultural productivity that cut into food supplies and make food insecurity
worse.
● Hypothesis 5: Floods may have a lesser effect on food insecurity if agriculture is
more resilient and productive thanks to the use of contemporary methods like
precision agriculture and climate-resilient crop types.
● Hypothesis 6: Food security may be mitigated to some degree by government
programs including catastrophe risk reduction, social safety nets, and agriculture
insurance.
● Hypothesis 7: Geographical, climatic, and socioeconomic characteristics all have
a role in how devastating floods are in a certain area and how successful adaption
strategies prove to be.
1.8 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
The research used resilience theory as its theoretical foundation, analyzing the
theoretical framework of food system resilience in flood-prone areas. Several
econometric models were used in this investigation, including the Fixed-effects,
Random-effects (GLS), and Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) methods. These
models facilitated the evaluation of the influence of different factors on the resilience of
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food systems in response to flooding occurrences. (Deron, S. and Krishnan, P., 2014).
The following is a delineation of the potential applications of each model within the
context of the study:
1. Fixed-effects model: The utilization of a fixed-effects model is deemed suitable in
cases where there exists apprehension regarding unobserved heterogeneity or individual-
level effects that may exert an influence on the resilience of food systems. In the present
scenario, the utilization of the fixed-effects model would enable us to account for latent
variables that remain consistent over time but may differ among various regions or
communities that experience floods.
The fixed-effects model can be formulated in the following manner:
The equation above represents a model of resilience, where $Resilience_{it}$ is the
dependent variable. The independent variables are $Exposure_{it}$, \
(Susceptibility_{it}\), $AdaptiveCapacity_{it}$, $Diversity_{it}$, \
(Redundancy_{it}\), and $Connectivity_{it}$. The coefficients $\beta_0$, $\beta_1$, \
(\beta_2\), $\beta_3$, $\beta_4$, $\beta_5$, and $\beta_6$ represent the effects of
these independent variables on resilience. The model also includes individual fixed
effects $\alpha_i$ and an error term $u_{it}$.
Where: - $Resilience_{it}$ denotes the resilience of the food system in region i at time
t.
The variables $Exposure_{it}$, $Susceptibility_{it}$, and $AdaptiveCapacity_{it}$
pertain to the vulnerability dimension of the food system.
The factors that are associated with enhancing resilience in the food system are \
(Diversity_{it}\), $Redundancy_{it}$, and $Connectivity_{it}$.
The symbol $\alpha_i$ denotes the individual fixed effects that account for
unobservable heterogeneity that is unique to each region.
The error term, denoted as $u_{it}$, is a component in the model.
The random-effects (GLS) model is a suitable statistical approach when there exists
unobservable heterogeneity, with the assumption that this heterogeneity is uncorrelated
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with the explanatory variables. When assuming that the unobservable effects are
stochastic and independent of the predictors, the random-effects model can be employed
to estimate the associations between the resilience of food systems and the different
determinants.
The random-effects (GLS) model may be formulated in the following manner:
The equation represents the relationship between resilience (denoted as \
(Resilience_{it}\)) and various factors, including exposure ($Exposure_{it}$),
susceptibility ($Susceptibility_{it}$), adaptive capacity ($AdaptiveCapacity_{it}$),
diversity ($Diversity_{it}$), redundancy ($Redundancy_{it}$), and connectivity (\
(Connectivity_{it}\)). The equation also includes individual-specific effects ($\
alpha_i$) and an error term ($u_{it}$).
Here, the variables and coefficients are the same as they were in the fixed-effects
analysis. The individual-specific effects, represented by (alpha_i), are what differentiate
the random-effects model from the fixed-effects model. For purposes of the random-
effects model, the parameter (alpha_i) is assumed to be a completely independent
random variable across all i.
Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model
Assuming no unique effects and complete independence across data, the Pooled
Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model is a standard regression technique. This model
does not account for unobserved variability, but it does provide a straightforward
examination of the connection between resilience and the investigated factors.
The following is an example of a version of the Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
model:
The preceding equation is a model of resilience, with the dependent variable being the
unit-specific resilience measure (Resilience_it) at a given time (t). (Exposure_it),
(Susceptibility_it), (AdaptiveCapacity_it), (Diversity_it), (Redundancy_it), and
(Connectivity_it) are all independent variables in the model. The impacts of these
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independent variables are represented by the coefficients (beta_0), (beta_1), (beta_2),
(beta_3), (beta_4), (beta_5), and (beta_6).
All of the same variables and coefficients from the fixed-effects and random-effects
models are employed here.
The error term $u_{it}$ denotes the aggregate impact of all latent variables that are not
accounted for in the model.
The concept of vulnerability is contingent upon either an individual or a system. The
concept of systems vulnerability pertains to the condition that distinguishes individuals
or groups based on their ability to anticipate catastrophic incidents and effectively
manage, reduce, and recuperate from the consequences of such calamities subsequent to
their occurrence (Adger, 1999; Blaikie and Muldavin, 2014). The formal definition of
vulnerability encompasses the interplay between exposure, susceptibility, and adaptive
capacity. The adaptive capacity of a system refers to the proportion of resources
allocated towards utilizing preferred approaches to risk management in order to prepare
for, mitigate, avoid, and recover from the impacts of natural disasters. According to
Aleksandrova et al. (2014), exposure pertains to the existence of human livelihoods,
environmental services, infrastructure, and capital resources (social, economic, cultural)
in regions that may be either fully or partially dilapidated. Birkman et al. (2013) define
susceptibility as the inclination of an individual or system to suffer adverse effects as a
result of exposure to or alteration in climatic calamities. The adoption of vulnerability
functions at the household level has been found to lead to a decline in food security in
the sensitivity dimension, as this dimension is highly vulnerable to even the slightest
natural hazards. The adaptive capacity of a household is comprised of physical,
economic, and social characteristics, to be more precise. The exposure dimension of
households is impacted by climate change and flooding.
In summary, the fixed-effects, random-effects (GLS), and Pooled OLS models may all
be used to investigate the theoretical framework based on resilience theory. These
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models attempt to identify the critical elements that contribute to the robustness of food
systems in flood-prone areas. The results of these models have the potential to provide
light on how to most effectively execute interventions and policies to improve food
security in vulnerable regions.
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CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 REVIEW OF THE RELATED LITERATURE
Undernourishment is a pressing international problem that affects a sizable fraction of
the world's population. Several econometric models, including Fixed Effects (FE),
Random Effects (RE), and Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), have been used by
researchers to learn more about how various variables contribute to malnutrition. This
analysis looks at the theoretical underpinnings of these models and how they might be
used to study the undernourished population. In this review, we draw on studies that
provide appropriate methods for analyzing how various factors contribute to
undernourishment.
2.1.2 The Fixed Effects (FE)
This model was created to take into consideration the possibility that unobservable,
time-invariant factors are skewing the relationship between the independent variables
and the dependent one. Data is suitable for panel data analysis on the premise that
individual-level effects are stable across time. Taking into account individual variability,
the model includes dummy variables for each subject to capture within-subject variation
over time.
Regional context is very important for understanding the complexities of
undernourishment, as recognized by the authors of the research by Smith et al. (2018).
Researchers were able to separate the effects of independent factors on
undernourishment rates across geographical areas because they used a Fixed Effects
model to control for regional heterogeneity. Given the wide range of variables that affect
food security in different places and social settings, this strategy is especially relevant in
the context of malnutrition. Smith et al. utilized the Fixed Effects model to differentiate
between static attributes and dynamic variables that contribute to the occurrence of
undernourishment. The inclusion of region-specific dummy variables successfully
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mitigated the potential bias caused by unobservable regional heterogeneity, such as
cultural practices, historical factors, and geographical variations, which could have
influenced the estimates if not accounted for. Smith et al. conducted an analysis that
unveiled specific factors influencing undernourishment in different regions. This
underscores the significance of customizing policies and interventions to effectively
tackle the distinct challenges encountered in each region. The study revealed that several
factors, namely agricultural productivity, access to clean water, healthcare infrastructure,
and economic conditions, exerted differential levels of influence on undernourishment
across diverse regions. The aforementioned observations carry substantial ramifications
for policymakers and individuals involved in development, as they emphasize the
necessity of employing tailored strategies to address malnutrition and promote long-term
food sustainability.
Furthermore, the research conducted by Smith et al. makes a valuable contribution to the
current body of literature concerning the factors influencing undernourishment. This
study specifically highlights the suitability and efficacy of employing the Fixed Effects
model in the analysis of panel data. The study enhances the reliability of its findings and
improves comparability with other similar studies by offering a comprehensive
methodological framework that addresses individual heterogeneity over time.
Nevertheless, similar to other research methodologies, the Fixed Effects model
possesses certain limitations. For example, the assumption is made that the effects
specific to individuals remain consistent over time, a condition that may not be
universally applicable. In addition, a substantial number of time periods is necessary to
adequately capture temporal fluctuations in individual behavior. Notwithstanding these
constraints, the study conducted by Smith et al. elucidates the significance of
incorporating regional context into the comprehension of undernourishment and offers
valuable insights for prospective research undertakings in this domain.
2.1.3 Random Effects (RE) Model:
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The Random Effects (RE) model, on the other hand, treats the individual-specific effects
as random variables, assuming that they are uncorrelated with the independent variables
under investigation. This model is suitable when the individual-specific effects are not
constant but rather follow specific statistical distributions, making them random and
unrelated to the independent variables. The influence of independent factors on the total
population may be estimated with more precision using the RE model. When the validity
of the assumption of time-invariant individual effects is in doubt, the RE model provides
a different strategy that may provide more accurate and efficient estimates. It is
important to note that the RE model presupposes, without verification or validation, that
the particular effects of individuals are uncorrelated with the independent variables.
To examine how economic variables contribute to hunger, Khan and Chen (2019) used a
cross-country analysis using a Random Effects model. They took into account both static
and dynamic economic indices, therefore emphasizing the role that expanding
economies may play in reducing world hunger. Their research reaffirmed the need to
account for both fixed and random variables in order to fully comprehend the factors
that contribute to undernourishment worldwide.
2.1.3 The Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
The Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model assumes the absence of individual
differences and estimates a unified set of coefficients for the independent variables. It
assumes that the effect of these variables on the dependent variable (specifically,
undernourishment in this context) remains constant throughout the entire dataset. The
utilization of the Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model proves to be
advantageous in the analysis of data obtained from cross-sectional studies or situations
where the temporal dimension is constrained, thereby posing challenges in effectively
accounting for individual-specific effects. Furthermore, when the research emphasis is
on collective associations rather than individual-level dynamics, the Pooled Ordinary
Least Squares (OLS) model offers a more direct and concise approach to estimating the
connections between variables. Nevertheless, it is imperative to exercise prudence when
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employing the Pooled OLS model, as it has the potential to produce estimates that are
biased if the presence of individual heterogeneity is not appropriately addressed. When
there exist significant unobserved variations among individuals or entities, combining all
observations may result in confounding and inaccurate outcomes. Hence, it is imperative
for researchers to thoroughly evaluate the suitability of the Pooled Ordinary Least
Squares (OLS) model in accordance with the specific attributes of their dataset and
research inquiry.
The study conducted by Wang and Lee (2020) aimed to investigate the correlation
between agricultural productivity and undernourishment within a particular geographic
area. The researchers directed their attention towards a sample that was relatively
homogenous, characterized by minimal individual differences. They anticipated that the
influence of agricultural variables on undernourishment would remain relatively
consistent across all entities. In the given context, the utilization of the Pooled Ordinary
Least Squares (OLS) model offered an effective and uncomplicated method to estimate
the correlation between agricultural productivity and undernourishment. Wang and Lee
employed the Pooled OLS model to ascertain the impact of agricultural productivity
fluctuations on undernourishment rates across the entire region, without explicitly
accounting for individual-level variations. The study provided valuable insights into the
overall impacts of agricultural practices on food security, which could be crucial in
developing comprehensive policies at a regional level to tackle issues related to
undernourishment. However, it is crucial to recognize the constraints of the Pooled OLS
model, specifically its incapacity to consider individual-specific effects or variations in
relationships over time. Therefore, it is advisable to exercise caution when interpreting
the results of the Pooled OLS model. To validate the findings and explore any potential
complexities in the associations between agricultural productivity and
undernourishment, future research utilizing panel data or more advanced econometric
methods may be necessary.
2.2 CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY
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Natural disasters including hurricanes, floods, and droughts are becoming more likely as
a result of the climate issue. It also causes widespread ecological shifts and pollution,
which threatens biodiversity and destroys crops. These occurrences have a profound
effect on food production because they reduce the quality, quantity, and ease of access to
resources and threaten the integrity of food systems everywhere. NASA researchers
found that under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, maize (corn) crops will be
among the most vulnerable. Global maize yields are predicted to drop by around 24
percent by 2030 if nations don't dramatically cut their carbon footprint. Climate change
is predicted to have a severe impact on the production of rice and wheat, two key
commodities that are already in short supply in many parts of the developing world.
Among the many climate-related hazards for crops, floods are near the top ( Edirisinghe,
N.,2018). The rising record demand for maize, soybeans, and wheat, along with the
increasing frequency and severity of weather disasters, are driving the world's second-
largest economy to depend on imports despite China's efforts to ensure food security.
Unprecedented flooding over the last several years has destroyed crops and dramatically
reduced the country's available farmland. As a result of the unprecedented rainfall and
flooding in Chinese regions in 2021, an estimated 30 million acres of crops were
destroyed. Additionally, the delay has affected the planting of more than 18 million
acres of cropland, or almost a third of the entire territory in the nation set aside for
winter wheat growing.
2.3 REPERCUSSIONS OF FLOODS ON FOOD
In underdeveloped nations, the rising severity and frequency of flood events have many
repercussions on the ability to earn a living of the population (Sam et al., 2019),
especially by disconcerting availability and access to food, thus impeding the attainment
of SDGs of the UN, especially SDG-2 focused on actively supporting agricultural
production, improving nutrition, achieving food security, and eradicating hunger by
2030 (Haddad, L., Hoddinott, J. and Alderman, H.., 1997). The right to adequate
nutrition is recognized on a global scale, making it imperative to work toward ensuring a
19
steady supply of nutritious food at a price everyone can afford. Nearly 820 million
people worldwide do not have access to enough food to satisfy their hunger needs, and
the problem is most severe in the world's least developed and developing nations. These
factors led to a dramatic increase in agricultural outputs, which in turn helped to
alleviate poverty and food insecurity despite a doubling of the country's population.
2.4 IMPACT OF FLOODING ON FOOD SECURITY
More than 5.6 million people across various African and Asian countries may have their
food security compromised which is mainly due to the rapid climate change over the
past few years. This effort is timely, given floods have recently ravaged major portions
of the EU and the US, in addition to Pakistan and India. Recent years have seen record
rainfall and floods, drawing attention to the consequences for impacted people and
highlighting the need for a better knowledge of the scale of their devastation, especially
as it pertains to the food requirements of those populations. Researchers looked at the
Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale, which is used by the USAID-
created Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), and how it changed
throughout the course of the study period (2009-2020). Minimal food insecurity, strained
food security, emergency food insecurity, crisis food insecurity and famine are the five
levels of IPC that quantify the degree of food insecurity. Using panel studies, the group
determined the long-term effects of floods. The study found that between 2009 and
2020, floods impacted the food security of almost 12% of those living in food insecure
regions. To be sure, food insecurity increased as a result of these factors, but, depending
on the time frame and geographic scope, there were also positive effects that helped
alleviate this problem (NYU Web Communications, n.d.). Notably, the findings showed
that floods have far-reaching effects on food security, but they do so in very localized
and different ways, as opposed to a consistent fashion across nations. This, the
researchers say, points to the fact that context-specific impacts on food production (such
as the loss of subsistence crops), food access (such as the devastation of infrastructure or
immediate economic difficulties), and/or food utilization explain the link between
20
flooding and food security, rather than country-wide dynamics. (Malawi Social Action
Fund MASAF., 2006)
2.5 DIRECT AND INDIRECT IMPACT OF FLOODING ON FOOD AND
AGRICULTURE
The frequency of natural catastrophes caused by flooding has grown, which has had
direct and indirect effects on society. These effects include decreased agricultural output
as well as decreased food supply, accessibility, utility, and community stability. Akukwe
et al. (2020) researched flood-induced food insecurity and suggested that the
consequences might occur before and after flood occurrences. Flood catastrophes inflict
physical damage to farms, crops, animals, and the basic infrastructure of farming and the
food supply chain, which results in a reduction in crop yield outputs and the availability
of food (Ravallion, M., 2019). The direct effects of floods on crops and animals may
result in monetary losses and a decrease in the amount of produce that can be harvested.
The infrastructure of transportation networks, as well as access to farms, food markets,
and consumption places, may be disrupted by flood catastrophes. Floods may create a
financial loss for producers, suppliers, and consumers of food production, which can
make it more difficult for individuals in communities to buy food (Sen, A., 2018).
Implications of Flood Disasters on Food Security
Prolonged droughts and floods, both of which are becoming more likely to climate
change, threaten the region's food supply (Quisumbing., 2013). Akudugu and Alhassan
(2013) showed that the availability, accessibility, utility, and stability of food in the
home all suffer from the reverberating effects of climate change. The majority of people
live in rural areas, where they tend to livestock and farm utilizing natural resources like
rainfall and irrigation. The loss of farms, food crops, animals, and seed reserves due to
floods has been a major climate change and rainfall variability-related food security
worry. As a result of a drop in agricultural output, some people may go hungry for many
months after each flood (Phiri., 2015). People's desire to leave these rural communities
is bolstered by both the threat of starvation and the deterioration in environmental
21
quality brought on by flood-related devastation. Since residents in these areas aren't
making as much money as they were before the floods, they can't afford to buy as much
food, and the issue of food shortages and malnutrition only becomes worse. The
destruction of seed stocks is another major consequence of floods. (Sharma., 2015).
22
CHAPTER 3
METHODOLOGY
3.1 Introduction
The methodologies I used to assess the food and agricultural systems in Pakistan and
Bangladesh are outlined in this chapter. In this section, we saw the data sets, panel data
models, and testing strategies that were used to ensure the models' precision. The
Hausman test, the White test, the check for autocorrelation, the check for
heteroskedasticity, the check for cross-sectional dependency, and the check for
normality are all presented, as well as the reasoning behind their use. The purpose of this
part is to offer a comprehensive account of the approaches used.
3.2 Data Collection Methods
The primary databases used for this investigation were the World Development
Indicators (WDI) and the Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) World Food
Supply and Demand Database. There is a wealth of information regarding food
production, agricultural methods, and social and economic dynamics in this dataset,
which covers the years 2012–2020. The research included data from both Pakistan and
Bangladesh's total national populations.
3.3 Models for Panel Data
Three-panel data models, including a fixed effects model, a random effects model, and a
pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) model, were used to investigate the association
between food and agricultural indicators and other socio-economic characteristics.
Below, I compare and contrast the various models and highlight the assumptions made
by each.
3.4 Checks for Validity
Several tests were performed to check for typical econometric problems in the panel data
models. We ran the following analyses:
23
3.4.1 The Hausman Algorithm
The Hausman test was used to decide between using a fixed effects model versus a
random effects model. Under the assumption that the random effects model is efficient
and the fixed effects model is inconsistent, the test analyses the stability of the obtained
coefficients. The fixed effects model should be used if the p-value of the Hausman test is
statistically significant.
3.4.2 White Tests
The potential for heteroskedasticity and cross-sectional dependence problems in the data
was checked using White tests, such as the White heteroskedasticity test and the White
cross-sectional dependency test. Both the White heteroskedasticity test and the White
cross-sectional dependency test determine if the error terms have consistent variances
across observations and whether there is any association between the error terms of
various cross-sectional units.
3.4.3Autocorrelation Test
The autocorrelation test was carried out to establish whether or not the error terms were
serially correlated. The premise of independence of data may be broken by
autocorrelation, which in turn can cause biassed standard errors and improper s testing.
To check for autocorrelation, the Durbin-Watson test statistic was used.
3.5 Test for Normality
Statistical tests for normality, including the Jarque-Bera test and the Shapiro-Wilk test,
were used to investigate whether or not the error terms were normally distributed. These
checks determine whether the error words are normally distributed. The effectiveness
and credibility of the model estimates may be impacted by any deviation from normalcy.
3.6. Limitation of the Study:
While this research attempted to provide light on the food and agricultural systems in
Pakistan and Bangladesh, it has certain caveats that might prevent its results from being
applied elsewhere. Some of these restrictions include:
24
 One limitation of the data is that it is secondary data from organisations like the
FAO and the World Development Indicators (WDI). The statistics from these
reputable sources may not be perfect or consistent, but they should be considered
dependable overall. Further, the depth of the investigation might be
compromised by a lack of data for some years or factors.
 The study's conclusions are limited to the time period and setting of Pakistan and
Bangladesh. The findings may not be applicable to other places or historical
periods because to the distinct socio-economic, cultural, and environmental
features of these nations. The results of this research should be applied cautiously
to other situations.
 Panel data models assume things like no endogeneity, no measurement error, and
linearity of correlations in order to function well. If these conditions are not met,
the estimated findings may be inaccurate or biassed. Although we worked hard to
account for these assumptions, we must admit that we may have been wrong.
3.7. Validity and Reliability:
 It is crucial to establish the credibility and strength of the research by
guaranteeing the validity and reliability of the study results. The following steps
were made to improve the study's validity and reliability:
 To reduce the possibility of mistakes and discrepancies in the data, the research
used stringent data cleaning and validation methods. This included verifying the
precision of variables by comparing data from different sources.
 A full investigation of the food and agricultural systems was made possible by
the use of panel data models, which allowed for the evaluation of linkages and
dynamics through time. Models and statistical methods were picked after careful
consideration of how well they would fit the study issue and the nature of the
data.
25
 The estimated models' validity was examined using a battery of diagnostic tests,
including the Hausman test, the White test, and tests for autocorrelation,
heteroskedasticity, and cross-sectional dependency. These checks were useful for
spotting possible problems and validating that the selected models were
adequate.
3.8. Ethical considerations were taken into account throughout the research process,
and all procedures were carried out in an honest and transparent manner. All reasonable
precautions were taken to ensure the security of the data, the accuracy of the citations,
and the privacy of the participants. The study's primary goal was to improve the validity
and reliability of the results by using these measures, and therefore to increase the
credibility and trustworthiness of the research findings. Nonetheless, despite these
efforts, it is essential to acknowledge the possibility of inherent limits and sources of
prejudice.
26
CHAPTER 4
DISCUSSION
4.1 DISCUSSION
Model 1 is a Fixed Effects Model, Model 2 is a Random Effects Model, and Model 3 is
a Pooled OLS Model; their respective findings are discussed and interpreted in this
chapter. Each model sheds light on how the dependent variable relates to the
independent ones.
Starting with Model 1, which is the Fixed Effects Model, "Nunnourishedml" is the
dependent variable, as we can see. In order to explain the variance in the dependent
variable, the "const" (constant term) and "Cerealimportdepenratio" coefficients are
statistically significant at the 5% level. However, at the 5% level of significance, the
coefficients for "foodproduvariconstant2014," "Percapitafoodsupplvariabikcal,"
"Minenergyrequirkcalcapday," and "AgriforesfishivalueaddedGD" are all insignificant,
indicating that these factors may not have a major influence.
The "Nunnourishedml" dependent variable may be significantly influenced by time-
invariant, unobserved variables; hence, the fixed effects model was used to account for
these influences. This model helps reduce the impact of endogeneity and unobserved
heterogeneity by introducing fixed effects for each nation in the panel. Within-country
time series analyses benefit greatly from the use of the fixed effects model.
Model 1: Fixed-effects, using 18 observations
Included 2 cross-sectional units
Time-series length = 9
Dependent variable: Nunnourishedml
Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio p-value
27
const 2320.87 723.064 3.210 0.0326 **
Cerealimportdepen 1.05107 0.510514 2.059 0.1086
ratio
foodproduvaricons −0.100054 0.187648 −0.5332 0.6221
tant2014
Percapitafoodsuppl −0.280591 0.259437 −1.082 0.3403
variabikcal
Minenergyrequirkc −1.18608 0.380940 −3.114 0.0357 **
alcapday
Agriforesfishivalue −8.29413 2.67090 −3.105 0.0360 **
addedGD
dt_2 −0.656455 2.53231 −0.2592 0.8083
dt_3 −1.97527 3.38103 −0.5842 0.5904
dt_4 −0.256386 4.71216 −0.05441 0.9592
dt_5 −10.5727 3.58849 −2.946 0.0421 **
dt_6 −12.6570 3.73249 −3.391 0.0275 **
dt_7 −12.2191 3.32980 −3.670 0.0214 **
dt_8 −13.6088 4.35517 −3.125 0.0354 **
Mean dependent var 24.25000 S.D. dependent var 4.732771

Sum squared resid 12.83624 S.E. of regression 1.791385
LSDV R-squared 0.966290 Within R-squared 0.915043
LSDV F(13, 4) 8.819948 P-value(F) 0.024464
Log-likelihood −22.49800 Akaike criterion 72.99600
Schwarz criterion 85.46121 Hannan-Quinn 74.71479
rho −0.009134 Durbin-Watson 1.780012
Joint test on named regressors -
28
Test statistic: F(5, 4) = 6.0153
with p-value = P(F(5, 4) > 6.0153) = 0.0533642
Test for differing group intercepts -

Null hypothesis: The groups have a common intercept
with p-value = P(F(1, 4) > 0.131262) = 0.735458
Wald joint test on time dummies -

Null hypothesis: No time effects
Asymptotic test statistic: Chi-square(7) = 16.2527
with p-value = 0.0229051
Distribution free Wald test for heteroskedasticity -

Null hypothesis: the units have a common error variance
Asymptotic test statistic: Chi-square(2) = 3.55868e-29
with p-value = 1
Test for normality of residual -

Null hypothesis: error is normally distributed
Test statistic: Chi-square(2) = 0.389692
Wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data -

Null hypothesis: No first-order autocorrelation (rho = -0.5)
Test statistic: F(1, 1) = 3.80482e+31
with p-value = P(F(1, 1) > 3.80482e+31) = 1.03208e-16
29
In the fixed effects model analysis, the coefficients for the independent variables
indicate their impact on the dependent variable, "Nunnourishedml." The variable
"Cerealimportdepenratio" shows a positive coefficient of 1.05107, although it is not
statistically significant at a 5% level (p-value = 0.1086). Similarly, the variables
"foodproduvariconstant2014" and "Percapitafoodsupplvariabikcal" have negative
coefficients but are not statistically significant. However, the variables
"Minenergyrequirkcalcapday" and "AgriforesfishivalueaddedGD" have statistically
significant negative coefficients, indicating that an increase in minimum energy
requirements and value-added in the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector leads to a
decrease in "Nunnourishedml."
The time dummy variables (dt_2 to dt_8) have mixed results in terms of statistical
significance. Some of the time dummy variables, such as dt_5, dt_6, dt_7, and dt_8, are
statistically significant at a 5% level, suggesting that certain periods have a significant
impact on "Nunnourishedml." The model's goodness-of-fit is measured by the R-squared
values. The LSDV R-squared is 0.966290, indicating that 96.6% of the variation in the
dependent variable is explained by the independent variables and individual-specific
effects. The within R-squared value is 0.915043, suggesting that 91.5% of the variation
in "Nunnourishedml" is due to within-country variations over time. The F-test for joint
significance of the named regressors has a p-value of 0.024464, indicating evidence of
overall statistical significance.
Moving on to Model 2, the Random Effects Model, we find that the dependent
variable, independent variables, and time dummy variables are the same as in Model 1.
The coefficients and their statistical significance are generally similar to those in Model
1, albeit with slight differences. The Breusch-Pagan test for heteroskedasticity indicates
no evidence against the null hypothesis, implying that heteroskedasticity is not present.
Moreover, the Hausman test does not provide evidence to reject the null hypothesis,
suggesting that the random effects estimates are consistent. The Pesaran CD test
suggests the presence of cross-sectional dependence, indicating that the observations
30
may be correlated across different individuals. Instead of using a fixed-effects model, a
random-effects model was opted for in order to take into account any unobserved time-
varying variables that may have an impact on the dependent variable "Nunnourishedml."
The unobserved effects are assumed to be unrelated to the explanatory variables in the
random-effects model. Nerlove's transformation was used in this investigation.
Model 2: Random-effects (GLS), using 18 observations

Using Nerlove's transformation
Coefficient Std. Error z p-value

const 2252.51 616.978 3.651 0.0003 ***
Cerealimportdepen 1.10876 0.424104 2.614 0.0089 ***
ratio
tant2014
variabikcal
Minenergyrequirkc −1.15252 0.327637 −3.518 0.0004 ***
alcapday
Agriforesfishivalue −7.85504 1.97916 −3.969 <0.0001 ***
addedGD
dt_2 −0.938203 2.10961 −0.4447 0.6565
dt_3 −2.27996 2.90089 −0.7860 0.4319
dt_4 −0.822070 3.86830 −0.2125 0.8317
dt_5 −10.5740 3.24258 −3.261 0.0011 ***
31
dt_6 −12.5131 3.34218 −3.744 0.0002 ***
dt_7 −11.9566 2.89334 −4.132 <0.0001 ***
dt_8 −12.9025 3.24835 −3.972 <0.0001 ***

'Between' variance = 8.06219

'Within' variance = 0.713125
theta used for quasi-demeaning = 0.901347
with p-value = 4.56537e-07
Wald joint test on time dummies -

Null hypothesis: No time effects
Breusch-Pagan test -
Null hypothesis: Variance of the unit-specific error = 0
32
Hausman test -
Null hypothesis: GLS estimates are consistent


Test statistic: F(1, 1) = 3.80482e+31
with p-value = P(F(1, 1) > 3.80482e+31) = 1.03208e-16
Pesaran CD test for cross-sectional dependence -

Null hypothesis: No cross-sectional dependence
Asymptotic test statistic: z = -3
The coefficients of the independent variables in the random-effects model analysis show
how they affect "Nunnourishedml." At the 1% confidence level (p-value = 0.0089), the
positive coefficient of 1.10876 for the variable "Cerealimportdepenratio" is statistically
significant. The coefficient of "Minenergyrequirkcalcapday" is also statistically
significant at -1.15252, showing that raising the minimum energy need correlates with a
decline in "Nunnourishedml." Notwithstanding, the negative correlation of -7.85504 for
the variable "AgriforesfishivalueaddedGD" is also statistically significant, indicating
33
that rising agricultural, forestry, and fishing value-added correlates with falling rates of
"Nunnourishedml." In this model, the time dummy variables (dt_2 through dt_8) are
insignificant.
Both the between-group variance and the within-group variance are estimated in the
random-effects model. The variation is 0.713125 within each group and 8.06219
between them. These estimates provide light on the inter- and intra-group differences in
the unobserved effects. The model's accuracy is evaluated using many statistical
methods, including the log-likelihood, Akaike criteria, Schwarz criterion, and Hannan-
Quinn criterion. The likelihood function of the model has been maximised, as shown by
the log-likelihood value of -27.82675. In this case, we have a score of 81.65350 for the
Akaike criteria, 93.22834 for the Schwarz criterion, and 83.24952 for the Hannan-Quinn
criterion. The performance of various models may be compared using this information
as a benchmark.
Model 3 is the Pooled OLS Model, which considers the dependent variable,
independent variables, and time dummy variables identical to those in Model 1. The
coefficients and their statistical significance are comparable to both Model 1 and Model
2. The R-squared value, which is 0.965, indicates that approximately 96.5% of the
variation in the dependent variable is explained by the independent variables. The F-test
for overall statistical significance of the named regressors has a p-value of 0.007,
providing evidence of significance. Instead of using the fixed-effects or random-effects
models, the pooled OLS model was used. It takes all the observations and lumps them
together, regardless of whether they were collected in a cross-section or a time series.
No time- or person-specific effects are accounted for in the model. This model's
coefficients reveal the extent to which various explanatory factors affect the dependent
variable, "Nunnourishedml."
Model 3: Pooled OLS, using 18 observations
34

const 2212.14 597.957 3.699 0.0140 **
Cerealimportdepen 1.14284 0.402894 2.837 0.0364 **
ratio
tant2014
variabikcal
Minenergyrequirkc −1.13270 0.319324 −3.547 0.0164 **
alcapday
Agriforesfishivalue −7.59569 1.68035 −4.520 0.0063 ***
addedGD
dt_2 −1.10463 2.00850 −0.5500 0.6060
dt_3 −2.45993 2.82251 −0.8715 0.4233
dt_4 −1.15621 3.64003 −0.3176 0.7636
dt_5 −10.5747 3.26188 −3.242 0.0229 **
dt_6 −12.4281 3.34380 −3.717 0.0138 **
dt_7 −11.8016 2.83971 −4.156 0.0089 ***
dt_8 −12.4853 2.77989 −4.491 0.0065 ***

R-squared 0.965184 Adjusted R-squared 0.881625
F(12, 5) 11.55096 P-value(F) 0.007022
35

Asymptotic test statistic: Chi-square(2) = 1.33308e-29
with p-value = 1

Null hypothesis: No first-order autocorrelation (rho = 0)
Test statistic: t(1) = nan
with p-value = P(|t| > nan) = nan

At the 5% level of significance (p-value = 0.0364), the coefficient for the variable
"Cerealimportdepenratio" in the pooled OLS model is 1.14284. This shows that
"Nunnourishedml" rises with the percentage of people who rely on food imports for
survival as it rises. There is a statistically significant inverse relationship between
"Minenergyrequirkcalcapday" and "Nunnourishedml," with a negative coefficient of -
1.13270 showing that raising minimal energy needs reduces "Nunnourishedml." With a
negative correlation of -7.59569, "AgriforesfishivalueaddedGD" indicates that a rise in
agricultural, forestry, and fishing value-added corresponds to a fall in
"Nunnourishedml."
36
In this model, the time dummy variables (dt_2 through dt_8) are insignificant. R-squared
and adjusted R-squared are measures of the model's goodness-of-fit. Approximately
96.52% of the variance in the dependent variable can be attributed to the independent
factors, as shown by the R-squared value of 0.965184. Taking into account the degrees
of freedom and the penalty for including more variables, the corrected R-squared value
is 0.881625.
Validity Tests
Several checks were performed to identify possible problems with the pooled OLS
model and assure its validity. The existence of heteroskedasticity in the model may be
tested using the distribution-free Wald test for heteroskedasticity. There is no evidence
to reject the null hypothesis of homoskedasticity, as shown by the test statistic, a chi-
square value of 1.33308e-29 with a p-value of 1.
The existence of autocorrelation may be determined using the Wooldridge test for
autocorrelation in panel data. Unfortunately, neither the test statistic nor the p-value are
accessible in this investigation. As a result, the results of this test cannot be used to infer
anything regarding autocorrelation. The residual normality test determines whether the
error term is normally distributed. There is insufficient evidence to reject the null
hypothesis of normality, as shown by the test statistic, a chi-square value of 0.724849
with a p-value of 0.695987.
The dataset consists of 18 observations, 2 cross-sectional units, and 9 years of data, and
is analysed using a fixed-effects model. "Nunnourishedml" is the dependent variable.
The following are the independent variables' coefficients and levels of statistical
significance:
37
The coefficient of 197.463 for the constant term (const) is not statistically
significant (p-value = 0.7108).
 The coefficient of 0.295060 for the variable "Cerealimportdepenratio" is not
statistically significant (p-value = 0.4728).
At the 1% confidence level (p-value = 0.0050), the coefficient of -0.496628 for
the variable "oodproduvariconstant2014" is statistically significant.
 However, the -0.0798352 coefficient for the variable
"Percapitafoodsupplvariabikcal" is not statistically significant (p-value =
0.6347).
The p-value for the coefficient of -0.0966523 on the variable
"Minenergyrequirkcalcapday" is 0.7398, which means that it is not statistically
significant.
 There is no statistically significant relationship between
"AgriforesfishivalueaddedGD" and any other variable (p-value = 0.8530),
despite the fact that its coefficient is 0.197086.
The goodness-of-fit of the model is evaluated using a number of statistical methods. The
inside R-squared value is 0.569848, which indicates that the independent factors within
each group account for around 56.98% of the variance in the dependent variable.
Overall, the model seems to be statistically significant, with an LSDV F-statistic of
8.908043 and a p-value of 0.001068.

38
const 197.463 518.964 0.3805 0.7108
Cerealimportdepen 0.295060 0.396911 0.7434 0.4728
ratio
foodproduvaricons −0.496628 0.142209 −3.492 0.0050 ***
tant2014
variabikcal
Minenergyrequirkc −0.0966523 0.283794 −0.3406 0.7398
alcapday
Agriforesfishivalue 0.197086 1.03912 0.1897 0.8530
addedGD

LSDV R-squared 0.829320 Within R-squared 0.569848
LSDV F(6, 11) 8.908043 P-value(F) 0.001068
rho 0.497035 Durbin-Watson 0.764018

with p-value = P(F(5, 11) > 2.91447) = 0.0647111
Test for differing group intercepts -

Null hypothesis: The groups have a common intercept
39
with p-value = P(F(1, 11) > 2.776) = 0.123877


with p-value = P(F(1, 1) > 8.21977) = 0.21365

The fixed-effects model was subjected to validity analysis. Assuming no joint

significance, the test statistic for the joint test of the listed regressors is F(5, 11) =
2.91447, with a p-value of 0.0647111. With a p-value of 0.123877, the test statistic F(1,
11) = 2.776 indicates that there is insufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis of
equal intercepts across groups. With a Chi-square(2) = 6.40657 and a p-value of
0.0406285, the distribution-free Wald test for heteroskedasticity rejects the null
hypothesis of a shared error variance.
No inference can be made about the presence or absence of autocorrelation in panel data
since the Wooldridge test for autocorrelation does not provide a test statistic or p-value.
The Chi-square(2) = 5.08052 and p-value of 0.0788458 from the test for residual
40
normality show that the null hypothesis of normality is not strongly rejected. These
findings suggest that only a few of the fixed-effects model's independent variables have
a substantial influence on the dependent variable. Furthermore, the distribution-free
Wald test indicates heteroskedasticity. There is no consistent evidence of autocorrelation
or deviation from normalcy in the findings of the other validity tests.
4.1.1 Explore the impact of food shortage on people’s economic activities and
income?
The insufficiency of food to meet the dietary requirements of a population, commonly
known as food shortage, can have a substantial influence on the economic activities and
income of individuals. The ramifications of food scarcity on individuals' financial
pursuits and earnings can manifest in both direct and indirect ways. The insufficiency of
food can exert a noteworthy influence on agriculture, which frequently serves as the
principal means of livelihood for a considerable number of individuals in emerging
nations. Insufficient food supply can result in a reduction in agricultural output, as
farmers face challenges in meeting the demand for food production. The aforementioned
circumstance may lead to a reduction in revenue for farmers who are dependent on
agriculture as their primary source of income. Diminished agricultural output may result
in food insecurity and malnourishment within the impacted regions. Escalation in food
prices can be attributed to a dearth of food, which results in a surge in demand and a
decline in supply.
Particularly on the purchasing power of economically disadvantaged people and those
living in destitute circumstances, the aforementioned issue may have a significant
impact. When food prices rise, it's possible that people would reduce their spending on
other goods to make ends meet. This might cut into profits for businesses that specialize
in making and selling these items. Malnutrition, which might result from food shortages,
reduces productivity on the job. Employees who are malnourished are more likely to get
unwell, which in turn increases absenteeism and lowers output. Employees and
businesses that rely on their labor might see their incomes fall as a result of these
41
conditions. Malnutrition and its associated health problems may result from food
shortages, driving increasing individual and public healthcare costs. When people are
malnourished, they are more likely to become sick, which drives up the cost of medical
treatment. Increases in healthcare costs might have far-reaching effects, including a drop
in discretionary spending and a slowdown in economic activity. Having fewer calories to
eat may have a detrimental effect on a child's ability to learn in times of food shortage.
This is because kids may have to stop going to school so they may help out with the
family farm or participate in other economic activities since money is tight. Given that
educational attainment is a critical factor in the rate at which an economy grows and
develops, this trend may have negative long-term effects on income. Children whose
schooling is cut short have a lower chance of landing well-paying jobs as adults, which
might have a negative impact on their families' standard of living. Criminal activity
often increases in times of food scarcity because people are forced to turn to dishonest
tactics (such as stealing) to meet their basic needs. Economic activity and revenue in the
affected areas may fall as a result of the aforementioned condition. Potential tourists
may be dissuaded from visiting areas that are experiencing a decline in resources due to
an increase in criminal activity.
The occurrence of food shortages may result in a reduction in tourism, as potential
tourists may be deterred from visiting regions that are grappling with food scarcity. The
outcome of this phenomenon can lead to a reduction in revenue for enterprises that are
dependent on the tourism sector, such as lodging establishments, dining establishments,
and other related industries catering to tourists. A decline in tourism may result in a
reduction of employment prospects for individuals employed in these sectors.
The presence of multiple underlying factors can contribute to food insecurity and
vulnerability in post-flood scenarios. Primarily, inundations have the potential to
devastate crops, livestock, and other food sources, resulting in a dearth of sustenance in
the impacted regions. The insufficiency of food supply may be exacerbated in the event
of impairment to transportation networks and infrastructure, which would pose
42
difficulties in the importation of food from other regions (Haque et al., 2021).
Furthermore, floods have the potential to cause displacement of individuals from their
residences and localities, thereby impeding their means of subsistence and ability to
obtain sustenance. According to Ali et al. (2021), populations that have been displaced
may encounter challenges in accessing their customary food sources or may lack the
financial means to procure food, thereby rendering them susceptible to malnutrition.
Moreover, floods have the potential to heighten the susceptibility to waterborne
illnesses, thereby exacerbating food insecurity as a result of the incapacity to prepare or
ingest uncontaminated food. The productivity of agriculture can be negatively impacted
by water sources that have been contaminated, thereby posing a challenge to the
cultivation of crops and the upkeep of livestock (Kouadio et al., 2021). Consequently, it
is imperative to tackle the root causes of food insecurity and susceptibility in post-flood
scenarios to guarantee the accessibility of wholesome and safe sustenance for impacted
communities. Furthermore, the aftermath of a flood can potentially lead to a surge in
food prices, thereby exacerbating the challenges faced by marginalized communities in
obtaining sustenance. Over the extended period, it is imperative to enhance the resilience
of agricultural systems and communities to effectively manage forthcoming flood
occurrences. The adoption of climate-smart agricultural techniques, such as crop
diversification, enhancement of soil health, and utilization of drought-resistant seeds,
can be considered as potential measures. The approach also encompasses the provision
of assistance to communities in the creation of alternative livelihoods and revenue
streams, such as fisheries or eco-tourism, that are comparatively less susceptible to the
impacts of flood occurrences (Haque et al., 2021).
Indirect impact of the flood on agricultural production?
The presence of multiple underlying factors can contribute to food insecurity and
vulnerability in post-flood scenarios. Primarily, inundations have the potential to
devastate crops, livestock, and other food sources, resulting in a dearth of sustenance in
the impacted regions. The insufficiency of food supply may be exacerbated in the event
43
of impairment to transportation networks and infrastructure, which would pose
difficulties in the importation of food from other regions (Haque et al., 2021).
Furthermore, floods have the potential to cause displacement of individuals from their
residences and localities, thereby impeding their means of subsistence and ability to
obtain sustenance. According to Ali et al. (2021), populations that have been displaced
may encounter challenges in accessing their customary food sources or may lack the
financial means to procure food, thereby rendering them susceptible to malnutrition.
Moreover, floods have the potential to heighten the susceptibility to waterborne
illnesses, thereby exacerbating food insecurity as a result of the incapacity to prepare or
ingest uncontaminated food. The productivity of agriculture can be negatively impacted
by water sources that have been contaminated, thereby posing a challenge to the
cultivation of crops and the upkeep of livestock (Kouadio et al., 2021). Consequently, it
is imperative to tackle the root causes of food insecurity and susceptibility in post-flood
scenarios to guarantee the accessibility of wholesome and safe sustenance for impacted
communities.
Furthermore, the aftermath of a flood can potentially lead to a surge in food prices,
thereby exacerbating the challenges faced by marginalized communities in obtaining
sustenance. When damage, destruction, or disruption occurs to food supplies, the amount
of food available decreases, and the price of food rises accordingly. Haque et al. (2021)
point out that this might be particularly challenging for low-income families who have
lost income as a consequence of the floods. In addition, floods may have long-lasting
consequences for farming and food supply. Soil erosion, nutrient depletion, and
waterlogging all have a detrimental influence on agricultural output, making it more
difficult for farmers to provide food and care for their animals. The availability of food
in affected areas may decrease as a result of this phenomena, and agricultural producers
may see a decrease in their financial resources (Ali et al., 2021).
It is critical to conduct treatments that address these issues throughout the short and long
term. Immediate actions that may help make food more accessible for vulnerable people
44
include giving them emergency food aid, food vouchers, or cash transfers. The speed
with which food may be delivered to affected areas can be increased by repairing
damaged infrastructure like roads and bridges. In order to better manage future flood
occurrences, it is essential to increase the resilience of agricultural systems and
communities over the long term. Crop diversity, improved soil health, and the use of
drought-resistant seeds are all examples of climate-smart agriculture practices that may
be taken. In addition, the strategy involves helping locals develop livelihoods and
sources of income that are less vulnerable to floods, such as fishing and ecotourism
(Haque et al., 2021).
CHAPTER 5
CONCLUSION
Flood catastrophes have a significant impact on everyday human activities including
economic performance, health care, water availability, agricultural productivity, and
human livelihood, which in turn raises concerns about family food security. Many
studies narrow in on issues of nutrition and food safety, consumption patterns, and food
costs, but few make original contributions to the conversation about the variables that
really affect these things. The study's estimates are plausible since food insecurity affects
the vast majority of families in flood-affected rural areas. Such situations call for the
implementation of intervention strategies to mitigate the potential for future increases in
food insecurity as a result of heightened frequency of floods. This research also
estimated the average marginal impact of each important variable on household food
security. Furthermore, nonagricultural job options should be encouraged in these regions
as a backup plan in case agricultural revenue fails as a result of risks.
In light of the possible rise in food insecurity brought on by the increased frequency of
floods, the study gives significant insights into the numerous variables that impact food
security in the aftermath of floods and highlights the need for intervention techniques to
prevent this increase. The agriculture sector isn't the only one negatively impacted by
45
flood catastrophes; the economy, healthcare, water supply, and people's standard of
living are all negatively impacted. The results highlight the necessity for system changes
driven by government agencies and the financial sector to increase social protection and
welfare administration, as well as the relevance of community-based flood disaster
management strategies. Moreover, in flood-prone locations, encouraging non-
agricultural career opportunities might act as a backup plan to guarantee that people's
livelihoods are not dependent on agriculture, which is vulnerable to flood threats. In
addition, a comprehensive strategy that includes environmental infrastructure
development, such as drainage and solid waste management, is required to achieve food
security by addressing the core causes of floods and vulnerability. To effectively address
the issues in high-risk and least developed regions, it is crucial to comprehend the
interconnected nature of floods, food insecurity, and sustainable development.
The report urges swift action to develop flood mitigation and control initiatives while
food poverty continues and the frequency and severity of floods rise owing to climate
change. Achieving the SDGs for food security, sustainability, and climate resilience
would need such activities.
Household susceptibility to flood dangers has an indirect or direct impact on food
security. Community-based flood catastrophe management plans and strategies are
urgently required for the modern day. Various parties, especially government agencies
and the financial sector, with a focus on welfare administration and social protection,
must implement systemic improvements to mitigate the impact of time and space. It is
crucial to focus on foundational factors that lead to food security in high-risk, flood-
prone, and least developed areas where food security challenges are significant.
There is still a rising issue of people being hungry. Because of its enormous and rising
population, the country is unable to offer a reliable supply of healthy food. Both direct
and indirect types of food insecurity are common in the United States. It may be found
on the local, regional, state, and federal levels of society. Achieving food security
requires prioritizing debates and policies that address the effects of floods. Better
46
knowledge of, control of, or elimination of causes like floods that enhance vulnerability
is essential for enhancing food security. This investigation's use of an assemblage and
systems thinking approach illuminated the nexus between floods, food insecurity, and
sustainable growth. Solutions need to be adapted to fit the various topographical and
climatic regions of the nation. Drainage and solid waste management are two of the most
essential aspects of environmental infrastructure that may help reduce flooding. In order
to assist Nigeria and the world attain food security as envisioned by the SDGs, the
international community is urged to engage directly in flood mitigation and control
projects in the country. Gaining a deeper understanding of flooding and its effects on
food security and the SDGs is a crucial first step in identifying the root of the problem
and taking corrective measures. This document is a call to action for the government to
take urgent measures to reduce flooding and to factor in catastrophes like floods, the
frequency of which is expected to increase in the coming years owing to climate change,
when formulating future food security plans. Food security and sustainability need new
methods due to climate change and other environmental shifts. The necessity to
construct resilient and sustainable food systems has been pushed to the forefront as a
result of the increasing frequency and severity of global catastrophes. Rapid action is
required to address preventable threats to food security, such as floods.
Unlike other studies, this one included all FAO food security aspects and also factored in
IPCC climate change components with respect to flood threats in flood-prone regions.
However, such region-based studies, especially in developing nations, are necessary for
identifying food security vulnerabilities and proposing relevant and practical policy
measures to deal with the growing severity of these problems.
Policy Recommendation
"Flood2Food: Nourishing Resilience"
In order to address the interconnected problems of flood catastrophes and food security
in flood-prone areas, the Integrated Flood-Resilient Food Security Initiative (IFRFSI),
47
also known as "Flood2Food: Nourishing Resilience," was developed. To improve food
security and resilience in at-risk areas, this effort takes a comprehensive and
preventative strategy by integrating flood control methods with sustainable agriculture
practices.
The Integrated Flood-Resilient Food Security Initiative includes the following parts:
 Maps and early warning systems for flooding: To offer up-to-the-minute
information on flooding, modern flood mapping tools and early warning systems
should be put into place. Communities will be able to get timely notifications,
allowing them more time to secure supplies and evacuate if required.
 Flood-Resilient Infrastructure: Invest in the creation of flood-resilient
infrastructure, such as flood barriers, drainage systems, and green infrastructure,
to lessen the effect of floods on agricultural areas and communities.
 Floodplain Management in Communities: Involve neighbourhood residents in
the process of developing and implementing flood prevention strategies.
Encourage local buy-in and information exchange to better prepare for and deal
with flooding.
 Income Diversification: Encourage people in flood-prone areas to diversify
their income sources away from agriculture. Improve household resilience during
and after floods by encouraging the establishment of alternative income sources
and employment possibilities.
 Agriculture that is climate-resilient: Adapted farming methods that take into
account climate change should be used in flood-prone areas. Sustainable land
management practices, such as agroforestry, permaculture, and flood-resistant
crop types, should be widely disseminated.
 Flood insurance indexing: Make sure farmers and vulnerable families have
access to flood-indexed insurance plans. In the event of a flood, these plans
48
would pay out according to established criteria, helping to fund cleanup and
reconstruction activities.
 Disaster preparation and Training: Run frequent training and capacity-
building programs on disaster preparation, risk reduction, and sustainable
farming practices for farmers, local authorities, and key stakeholders.
 Storage Space and Transportation to the Market: Establish post-harvest
storage and work to expand market access for agricultural goods. Improving
market connections may help keep food costs down and supply secure during
and after floods.
 Collecting Information and Conducting Studies: The effects of floods on food
security should be studied, and novel approaches should be investigated.
Evidence-based decision-making and policy modifications will benefit from
continuous data collecting and analysis.
 Educational Outreach: Start spreading the word about the advantages of the
Flood2Food program and the hazards associated with flooding and food
insecurity in your community. Foster a society-wide attitude of readiness and
resiliency.
The goal of the "Flood2Food: Nourishing Resilience" program is to create a mutually

beneficial connection between flood management and food security in order to end the
vicious cycle of hunger that floods cause. This strategy aims to strengthen communities
in flood-prone areas by taking a preventative and holistic approach to issues including
food security and flood protection. In addition, it helps in the pursuit of the United
Nations' Sustainable Development objectives (SDGs) and is consistent with larger
sustainability objectives and climate resilience targets.
49
50
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CYPRUS INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY

INSTITUTE OF GRADUATE STUDIES AND RESEARCH

ACCOUNTING & FINANCE DEPARTMENT

INSTITUTE OF GRADUATE STUDIES AND RESEARCH

ACCOUNTING & FINANCE DEPARTMENT

THE FINANCIAL CRISIS OF FLOODING IN COUNTRY

PRODUCTION AND RESOURCES

Asst. Prof. Dr. Mehrshad Radmehr Hashemipour

CYPRUS INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY

INSTITUTE OF GRADUATE STUDIES AND RESEARCH

THESIS APPROVAL CERTIFICATE

Thesis Defense Date:

Jury Members Signature

Director of the Institute

Prof. Dr. Tahir ÇELİK

Name and Surname: Bilal Amjad

Supervisor: Asst. Prof. Dr. Mehrshad Radmehr Hashemipour

The co-occurrence of natural and anthropogenic disasters poses significant threats to

1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio p-value

Mean dependent var 24.25000 S.D. dependent var 4.732771

Joint test on named regressors -

Test for differing group intercepts -

Wald joint test on time dummies -

Distribution free Wald test for heteroskedasticity -

Test for normality of residual -

Wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data -

Model 2: Random-effects (GLS), using 18 observations

Coefficient Std. Error z p-value

Mean dependent var 24.25000 S.D. dependent var 4.732771

'Between' variance = 8.06219

Wald joint test on time dummies -

Test for normality of residual -

Wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data -

Pesaran CD test for cross-sectional dependence -

Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio p-value

Mean dependent var 24.25000 S.D. dependent var 4.732771

Distribution free Wald test for heteroskedasticity -

Wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data -

Test for normality of residual -

Model 1: Fixed-effects, using 18 observations

Model 1: Fixed-effects, using 18 observations

Mean dependent var 24.25000 S.D. dependent var 4.732771

Joint test on named regressors -

Test for differing group intercepts -

Distribution free Wald test for heteroskedasticity -

Wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data -

Test for normality of residual -

The fixed-effects model was subjected to validity analysis. Assuming no joint

The goal of the "Flood2Food: Nourishing Resilience" program is to create a mutually

A. Kassegn, E. Endris, Review on socio-economic impacts of ‘Triple Threats’ of

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