2020 International Conference on Decision Aid Sciences and Application (DASA)

Ensemble Learning Algorithm-based Artificial

Neural Network for Predicting Solar Radiation Data

Mohammed Ali JALLAL* Abdessalam EL YASSINI Samira CHABAA

Physics department Physics department Industrial Engineering Department
Faculty of Sciences Semlalia, Cadi Faculty of Sciences Semlalia, Cadi National School of Applied
Ayyad University Ayyad University Sciences, Ibn Zohr University
Marrakesh, Morocco Marrakesh, Morocco Agadir, Morocco
mohammedali.jallal@edu.uca.ac.ma abdessalam.elyassini@edu.uca.ac.ma s.chabaa@uiz.ac.ma

Abdelouhab ZEROUAL Saida IBNYAICH

Physics department Physics department
Faculty of Sciences Semlalia, Cadi Faculty of Sciences Semlalia, Cadi
2020 International Conference on Decision Aid Sciences and Application (DASA) | 978-1-7281-9677-0/20/$31.00 ©2020 IEEE | DOI: 10.1109/DASA51403.2020.9317277

Ayyad University Ayyad University

Marrakesh, Morocco Marrakesh, Morocco
zeroual@uca.ac.ma saidaibnyaich@gmail.com

Abstract— Trustworthy acquaintance and accurate solar
radiation measurements are a condition for designing and
managing solar energy systems. Frequently, there are
substantial spatial and temporal lacks of measures so that
predictive approaches become of interest. In the present paper,
an ensemble learning approach is proposed based on the deep
neural network technique. The suggested approach is applied
to forecast the hourly time series of global solar radiation
related to Marrakech, Morocco. For that purpose, the developed
forecasting model was trained using seven years of
measurements with an hour resolution via the efficient
optimizer of Levenberg-Marquardt. Five exogenous inputs are
involved for performing the prediction task, including air
temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, and
time feature. The achieved outcomes prove the proposed
learning approach's consistency and accuracy to generate
synthetic solar radiation data in case of need.
Keywords—Ensemble learning, Solar radiation, Prediction,
Meteorological data, Artificial intelligence, Artificial neural
network.
I. INTRODUCTION
Controlling solar energy systems requires knowing the
intensity of solar radiation (SR) at all times. SR forecasting is
a vital factor for solar power systems’ designing and
controlling [1] and building power consumption forecasting
[2]. The available SR measurements are frequently inadequate
or limited in time and space to be adopted for solving practical
tasks. To handle these issues, several approaches are proposed
to forecast SR data from other meteorological data.
Based on the literature review, several studies are
developed on this topic. Khatib et al. applied linear, nonlinear,
fuzzy inference systems and artificial neural network (ANN)
techniques to model the received solar radiation in Malaysia.
The achieved results demonstrate the efficiency of adopting
ANN as a predictive model relative to the other techniques [3].
Barbon et al. proposed a forecasting approach for
improving the accuracy of predicting beam and diffuse solar
radiation by adopting satellite solar radiation estimations and
2 clear sky models. The proposed technique uses the Fourier
series calculation, where all clear-sky models are adjusted. Six
cities’ meteorological measurements are adopted to evaluate
the achieved predictions [4]. Chang et al. improved the
accuracy of all-sky conditions on the basis of hourly and daily
solar radiation measurements [5].
Feng et al. adopted 4 artificial intelligent techniques,
comprising extreme learning machines, ANN-based genetic
algorithms, random forests, and generalized ANNs, for
forecasting daily diffuse solar radiation (DSR). The obtained
results prove the accuracy of the ANN-based genetic
algorithm to forecast DSR data [6].
Most of the suggested approaches adopted a mono-
structure design to predict SR data using historical
measurements of several meteorological parameters as
exogenous or endogenous inputs, without identifying the
local-spaces of validity, then map each local-space with an
appropriate local-model. The adoption of machine learning
algorithms with mono-structure design might reduce the
prediction precision and slow down the training process. This
mono-structure design affects the reliability and stability of
the forecasting model. Therefore, the optimal solution to
address this issue is to split the operating-space by adopting
the multi-model methodology [7].
The main contributions and novelty of the present research
are:
• The accuracy of solar radiation prediction is
improved,
• A new ensemble learning approach is proposed,
• The training process becomes faster,
• The robustness of the predictive model is ensured,
• A monitoring scheme for SR quality predictions is
proposed.
The present article is structured as follows. A description
of the meteorological data is presented in Section II. A brief
description of the proposed ensemble learning approach-based
ANN technique with the statistical performance indicators is

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 2020 International Conference on Decision Aid Sciences and Application (DASA)
given in this section. In contrast, Section III presents the
optimal configuration of the developed local-models. The
effectiveness of the suggested approach is discussed in terms
of forecasting SR measurements. Lastly, Section 5 presents
conclusions.
II. MATERIALS AND APPLLIED METHODS
A. Meteorological dataset description and normalization
The dataset used in the present paper are measured in
hourly resolution from sundown to sunup through 7 years,
from 2008 to 2014, by the International Laboratory "Remote
Sensing and Water Resources in the Semi-Arid
Mediterranean" in the city of Marrakech (latitude 31o 37’N,
longitude 08o 01’W, elevation 466m), Morocco. This city is
known for its semi-arid climate. The dataset encompasses four
meteorological parameters, including air temperature (aT),
relative humidity (rH), precipitation (Pr), and wind speed
(Ws), accompanied by the time vector (t) that contains the
hours of the day. The solar measurement device that recorded
the solar radiation data involves a pyranometer Kipp&Zonen
CM-5 with 9 15 / sensitivity.
A normalization process is applied before feeding the
ANN model with the input features to guarantee the
homogenization of the propagated information. All the input
features are normalized in the interval 1,1 by adopting Eq.
(1), that is defined as follows [7]:
2
̅ 1
where,
∈ , is the feature of the original data.
is the minimum value of the feature of the original
data.
Fig. 1. Design scheme of the ensemble learning approach for solar radiation prediction
is the maximum value of the feature of the
original data.
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̅ is the normalized feature.
B. Performance indicators
Three discrepancies indicators are applied to test the
accurateness and the reliability of the developed approach,
including Mean square error (MSE), mean absolute
error (MAE), and correlation coefficient (R). Their computing
formulas are presented as follows [2]:
1
(2)
1
| | (3)
∑ (4)
∑
where,
N is the number of input’s/output’s samples,
is the measured solar radiation,
is the forecasted solar radiation,
is the average value of the solar radiation
measurements.
(1) C. Ensemble learning Approach description
The theory behind the ensemble learning model is on the
basis of the division of a complicated task into subtasks, which
are straightforward to address, where its singular solutions
contribute to each other to solve the global task [7].
This framework is a conceptual representation that
encompasses local models' ensemble through restricted
validity in precise operative local spaces. The global system's
local validity for a particular sample is determined via a
switching triggering function that signifies the
corresponding degree of the sample to the operative space [7].
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 2020 International Conference on Decision Aid Sciences and Application (DASA)
In Figure 1 the structure of the ensemble learning model is
presented for solar radiation prediction.
The proposed technique aims to interchange the
representation of a complex system by an ensemble
models associated with switching activation
functions that enable the interchange over the local
models [7].
(5)
The global system’s output is defined by the following
equation:
(6)
where,
is the number of local-models,
is the switching activation function of local-model ,
is the input vector of the system at time ,
is the forecasted output of the local-model ,
is the forecasted output of the global system, which
is solar radiation in this study.
The proposed approach is based on an artificial neural
network (ANN), an algebraic system inspired by the
biological brain’s neural networks. This approach can map the
nonlinear relationships between inputs and outputs features
[8].
ANN is comprising adaptive synaptic weights that connect
neurons. These weights can be adjusted using a training
optimizer that learns from the experimental dataset to
efficiently address the required task. In this study, the
Levenberg-Marquardt optimizer is adopted. A suitable cost
function, the mean square error (MSE) cost function, was
adopted [8]. The incorporation of both the optimizer and the
cost function involves determining optimal weights values for
the ANN model.
Structurally, an artificial neural network is constructed
with adaptive neural layers of computing units, as Figure 2
illustrated, capable of receiving data and applying an
activation function, including a threshold to decide whether
signals are being transmitted [9].
The first layer in a typical model is the input layer,
connected with hidden layers and an output layer. Each layer
can encompass one or more artificial neurons [8].
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Fig. 2. Typical ANN’s representation
The model’s structure and the training process are crucial
elements of the ANN model, where these elements can impact
the accuracy of the ANN model significantly. Besides, ANN’s
neurons are described by an activation function that is adapted
to transform the neurons’ weighted input signals to the output
signals. Several forms of conversions that can be adopted as
an activation function. In this study, four activation function
were tested, including linear (L), hyperbolic sigmoid (HS),
hyperbolic tangent (HT), and radial basis (RB) activation
functions. More theoretical description of ANN is presented
in [7].
The proposed ensemble learning approach is aimed to
boost the accuracy of hourly SR predictions and to address the
issues associated with the absence or the intermittence of
hourly SR data.
In Figure 1, the design scheme of the ensemble learning
approach are depicted, which uses five exogenous inputs (time
in hours (t), air temperature (aT), relative humidity (rH), wind
speed (Ws), and precipitation (Pr)), to perform hourly SR
prediction. In this perspective, a predictive model was
developed that encompassed 12 local ANN-based
models, where each local model was devoted to forecast the
hourly SR measurements of each month of the year.
12 local meteorological datasets are created, where each
local dataset comprises 7 years of measurements related to
each month of the year. The training and testing processes of
every single local model was implemented via half of the
dataset’s measures. Then, the other half of it is adopted to
evaluate the reliability and the precision of the proposed
model to forecast the SR hourly data.
Subsequently, the local models are designed following the
methodology presented in Figure 3.
 2020 International Conference on Decision Aid Sciences and Application (DASA)

Local-
model (16,7,3) HT-HT- 4 11.4 97.37
6 HT
Local-
model (14,1) HT-HT 2.31 8.1 97.91
7
Local-
model (17,1) RB-RB 2.9 8.4 98.41
8
Local-
model (18,3) HT-HT 3.1 9.2 97.33
9
Local-
model (16,1) HT-HT 3.6 9.7 97.38
10
Local-
model (14,3) HT-HT 5.06 10.4 96.78
11
Local-
model (14,4) HT-HT 3.3 9 96.88
Fig. 3. Flowchart for designing the ANN local-models [7] 12

III. LOCAL-MODELS CONFIGURATION IV. PREDICTION RESULTS ANANLYSIS

The optimal number of hidden layers, hidden neurons’
number, and their related activation functions are dependent
on each task’s variables. As there is no accurate strategy to
define these numbers or activation functions’ type efficiently,
a trial and error strategy was applied to determine the
configuration of the ensemble learning approach’s local-
models. The optimal configuration of each local model is the
one that minimizes MSE and MAE metrics and maximizes the
R coefficient.
In Table I, the MSE, MAE and R-values that are attained
during the testing process are presented.
All 12 neural local models’ predictions demonstrate a high
correlation with measured SR time series based on the
statistical metrics, MSE, MAE, and R, where these metrics are
varying from one local-model to another respectively in the
interval of 2.31%, 5.06% , 8.13%, 12.21% , and
96.24%, 98.41% that are due to the seasonal variation of
each month of the year. In Figure 4, the SR predicted time
series is depicted against the measured SR time series during
winter, spring, summer, and autumn.

TABLE I. STATISTICAL METRICS’ VALUES OF THE OPTIMAL LOCAL

MODEL’S CONFIGURATION DURING THE TESTING PHASE

Local- Hidden Hidden MSE MAE R

model layers layers (%) (%) (%)
structure activation
functions
Local-
model (15,1) HT-HT 2.6 8.13 96.24
1
(a)
Local-
model (12,4,1) RB-RB- 4 10.1 96.41
2 RB
Local-
model (11,1) HS-HS 3.1 9.2 96.93
3
Local-
model (11, 1) HT-HT 4.6 10.2 96.93
4
Local-
model (b)
(15,7,2) RB-RB- 3.8 12.21 97.4
5 HT

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 2020 International Conference on Decision Aid Sciences and Application (DASA)

TABLE II. COMPARISON IN TERMS OF R METRIC OF THE PROPOSED

HYBRID MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHM AGAINST RECENTLY PUBLISHED
PREDICTIVE APPROACHES TO PREDICT SR TIME SERIES IN SEMI-ARID
CLIMATE REGIONS

References location Method R (%)

Ankara- * Meteonorm 95
(Turkey) * PVGIS 97.2
* HELIOSAT 98.5
[10]
Eskişehir- * Meteonorm 96.2
(c) (Turkey) * PVGIS 95.9
* HELIOSAT 96.1

* Angstrom- 94.69
Prescott (Linear)

Ankara- * Angstrom- 95.47

[11]
(Turkey) Prescott (Quadratic)

* Semi-empirical 95.52
models -
(d) 97.42
* Support Vector
Fig. 4. Measured vs forecasted SR measurements during the test process for Regressor with 93.3
every season of the year; (a) winter, (b) spring, (c) summer, and (d)
autumn partial least squares
approximation
The achieved outcomes proves the efficiency of the Toledo- (SVR-PLS)
[12]
paper’s proposal to forecast the solar radiation received at (Spain)
each hour of the day. Overall, the proposed ensemble learning * Support Vector
method achieve a high correlation coefficient that is equal to Regressor with 93.3
97.16 %. Besides, the attained results proves that every local- Lasso regression
model can be applied to forecast the SR measurements of the model (SVR-Lasso)
first fifteen days of the following month 1 and the latest Marrakesh- 96.24
fifteen days of the previous month 1, in case of local- Artificial Multi-
This study (Morocco) -
model shortage. This is achieved via the overlapping section Neural Approach
98.41
between the local domains as Figure 5 demonstrate, where
every local model is able to substitute provisionally the
shortage of the preceding and the next local model with a V. CONCLUSION
significant efficiency.
In this research, the prediction of hourly global solar
radiation data is performed via an ensemble machine-learning
algorithm. The proposed learning approach uses a set of ANN
models to approximate the whole operating space by adopting
an adequate model for each sub-space. The developed
technique speeds up the training process and boosts the
precision of the predictive model over the month of the year.
Besides, it is an efficient approach to track the prediction
accuracy of the global predictive model. Then, it is useful to
detect in which model there is a shortage and then to tune its
parameters without affecting the others. The achieved values
of the statistical metrics, MSE, MAE, and R, which are
respectively in the ranges of [2.31%, 5.06%], [8.13%,
12.21%] and [96.24%, 98.41%], proves the prediction
accuracy of the proposed learning approach.
Fig. 5. Overlapping validity domains illustration

Table II presents the accuracy performance of the

proposed hybrid machine-learning algorithm in terms of R
metric against other predictive techniques that are recently
published for semi-arid climate regions. The achieved
outcomes prove the accuracy and the reliability of the
proposed approach compared to its comparatives.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The International Laboratory «Remote Sensing of Water
Resources in Semi-Arid Mediterranean Areas» provided the
climatological data applied in this research.

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 2020 International Conference on Decision Aid Sciences and Application (DASA)

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