RHYS BLAKELY AND OTHERS

The Times science reporter

Tim says: “This article says that “Australia and New Zealand’s strict lockdown and quarantine
policies resulted in 28 fewer deaths per 100,000 people than normal”. However, as Professor
Balloux points out (see page 5), “the worst performer, by some margin, is Peru, despite enforcing
the harshest, longest lockdown. ”
The article also implicitly praises the Chinese performance, when it is clear to most analysts
that its zero-COVID policies are doomed to failure.”

UK’S COVID DEATH RATE LOWER

THAN IN GERMANY AND SPAIN,
SAYS WHO
The UK had a lower Covid-related death rate during the
pandemic than Italy, Germany and Spain, according to a study
from the World Health Organisation.
The analysis suggests that governments around the world have massively
under-reported the number of deaths that can be linked to Covid-19. It
estimates that between January 2020 and December 2021 an extra 15
million people died because of Covid and the disruption it caused.
Governments reported only 5.4 million Covid-related deaths in the same
period. By comparison, the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 is estimated to
have caused 50 million deaths, according to the US Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention.
The new analysis looked at what is known as excess mortality — the
difference between the number of deaths that have occurred and the
number that would have been expected had a pandemic not struck,
based on data from earlier years.
It aims to include deaths directly caused by Covid infections and also
those that came about indirectly because of the pandemic’s broader
impacts on health systems and society.
Britain stood out for the apparent accuracy of its official figures. The
government had estimated about 150,000 excess deaths and the WHO
estimate was virtually the same. By contrast, the Indian government
claims it has suffered fewer than 500,000 extra deaths. The WHO said
yesterday that the real figure was nearly five million.
The WHO estimates that the UK had 109 excess deaths per 100,000
people per year over a two-year period. That compared with 133 for
Italy, 116 in Germany and 111 in Spain.
European countries with fewer deaths per 100,000 included France, trade are creating more opportunities for new and dangerous infectious
with 63, and Ireland with 29. For India, the equivalent figure was 171. disease risks to emerge.”
The report estimated that in Australia and New Zealand strict lockdown
and quarantine policies resulted in 28 fewer deaths per 100,000 people
than normal.
In China, two fewer people died per 100,000 than normal in 2020 and
2021. In Norway, one less person died per 100,000 than would otherwise
have been expected.
Sweden, which was criticised in the early stages of the pandemic for
resisting a mandatory lockdown, had an average excess death rate of 56
per 100,000 in 2020 and 2021.
Professor Devi Sridhar, chairwoman of global public health at the
University of Edinburgh, told The Daily Telegraph: “The lesson from
Sweden is to invest in your population’s health and have less inequality.”
The WHO claimed that its estimates were based on the best available data
but experts warned against trying to rank closely comparable countries.
“Caution is needed when using these estimates,” Professor Sir David
Spiegelhalter, of the University of Cambridge, said. For instance, the
WHO analysis estimated that the UK had between 98 and 121 excess
deaths per 100,000 people. For Germany, the range is 96 to 137. As they
overlap, the figures cannot be used to claim a significant difference.
Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director-general of the WHO,
called the global figure of 15 million “sobering”. He said the figure
pointed “to the need for all countries to invest in more resilient health
systems that can sustain essential services during crises”.
Dr Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, the medical research
charity, said that a lack of urgency from governments had contributed to
the number of deaths. “There have been too many times in the past two
years when world leaders have failed to act at the level needed to save
lives. Even now a third of the world’s population remains unvaccinated,”
he said.
“More must be done to protect people from the ongoing pandemic and
shield humanity against future risks. Climate change, shifting patterns of
animal and human interaction, urbanisation and increasing travel and
By Rhys Blakely, Venetia Menzies
and Constance Kampfner
The Times / 6 May 2022
Print credit: The Times / News Licensing

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