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  • ASK (G) - No.1 - Krisna Harimurty

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    This document discusses expected value calculations for three products - A, B, and C - under different scenarios: 1) Expected value (EV) calculations for each product based on possible outcomes and their probabilities. Product A has the highest EV of $81,000. 2) Opportunity loss (EOL) calculations based on outcomes, showing Product C has the highest expected opportunity loss of $49,500. 3) Expected value with perfect information (EVwPI) calculations, which shows Product A still has the highest EV of $81,000, but Product C now has the lowest EV of $3,000. The EVPI is calculated as $3,000.

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    Expected Value

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    ASK(G)_No.1_Krisna Harimurty

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    This document discusses expected value calculations for three products - A, B, and C - under different scenarios: 1) Expected value (EV) calculations for each product based on possible outcomes and their probabilities. Product A has the highest EV of $81,000. 2) Opportunity loss (EOL) calculations based on outcomes, showing Product C has the highest expected opportunity loss of $49,500. 3) Expected value with perfect information (EVwPI) calculations, which shows Product A still has the highest EV of $81,000, but Product C now has the lowest EV of $3,000. The EVPI is calculated as $3,000.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    10 views1 page

    ASK (G) - No.1 - Krisna Harimurty

    Uploaded by

    krisnaharimurty
    This document discusses expected value calculations for three products - A, B, and C - under different scenarios: 1) Expected value (EV) calculations for each product based on possible outcomes and their probabilities. Product A has the highest EV of $81,000. 2) Opportunity loss (EOL) calculations based on outcomes, showing Product C has the highest expected opportunity loss of $49,500. 3) Expected value with perfect information (EVwPI) calculations, which shows Product A still has the highest EV of $81,000, but Product C now has the lowest EV of $3,000. The EVPI is calculated as $3,000.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 1

    SOAL 1

    Jawab:
    Expected Value
    a Product Favourable Stable Unfavourable Expected Value
    0.3 0.6 0.1 (EV)
    Produk A $ 120,000.00 $ 70,000.00 $ 30,000.00 $ 81,000.00 → Nilai yang diharapkan
    Produk B $ 60,000.00 $ 40,000.00 $ 20,000.00 $ 44,000.00 (EVwoPI)
    Produk C $ 35,000.00 $ 30,000.00 $ 30,000.00 $ 31,500.00

    Oportunity Loss Table


    b Product Favourable Stable Unfavourable Expected Opportunity Loss
    0.3 0.6 0.1 (EOL)
    Produk A $ - $ - $ - $ -
    Produk B $ 60,000.00 $ 30,000.00 $ 10,000.00 $ 37,000.00
    Produk C $ 85,000.00 $ 40,000.00 $ - $ 49,500.00 → Nilai yang diharapkan

    Expected Value with Perfect Information


    c Product Favourable Stable Unfavourable Expected Value
    0.3 0.6 0.1 (EV)
    Produk A $ 120,000.00 $ 70,000.00 $ 30,000.00 $ 81,000.00
    Produk B $ 60,000.00 $ 40,000.00 $ 20,000.00 $ -
    Produk C $ 35,000.00 $ 30,000.00 $ 30,000.00 $ 3,000.00
    Total $ 84,000.00 → Nilai yang diharapkan
    Maka (EVwPI)
    EVPI = EVwPI - EVwoPI
    $ 3,000.00

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