OAG COVID 19 AM Slides 240620

Boom and Bust: Airline Strategies to Get Flying Again
24.06.20
MAKE SMARTER MOVES
SPEAKERS
DATA EXPERT
SPEAKER
MODERATOR
SPEAKER
Wilco Sweijen John Grant Mark Clarkson Deirdre Fulton

Director, Route & Business Senior Analyst EVP Product Management Partner
Development
OAG OAG MIDAS Aviation
Amsterdam Airport Schiphol
Wilco has been Director of With a wealth of experience Mark has almost 20 years’ Deirdre is a partner in an
the Route & Business across the global aviation industry experience across aviation consultancy
Development team at AMS for industry, John provides Airports, Air Service providing meaningful
3 years. Prior to that he was expert commentary on Development consultancy insight and analysis to
Director for Aviation Marketing market developments for and product management. At clients around the world.
at Schiphol for 17 years and OAG, making connections OAG, he is responsible for She works closely with
has vast experience in route between what the data is Product Management OAG on their data
development, working with telling us and the trends and focussed around Schedules analysis and publications.
airlines, airports and tourism events occurring in the and OAG’s Analyser platform.
authorities around the world. sector.
MAKE SMARTER MOVES
© 2020 OAG Aviation Worldwide Limited. All rights reserved
BOOM AND BUST: AIRLINE STRATEGIES TO GET FLYING AGAIN
We aim to consider
Update on the latest position regarding frequency and capacity
As airlines build different exit strategies we assess why some have
been bolder than others
Do LCCs have an advantage when it comes to resuming operations?
What is the future for network carriers?
Is there any first mover advantage?
Q&A
Followed by your Questions and Answers MAKE SMARTER MOVES

SIGNS OF RECOVERY?
June Global Capacity

by week
140
120 117m Jun-19
Seats (m) by week

100
Jun-20
80
60 Latest
53m view
40 37m 40m
20
0
Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
Globally, the number of scheduled flights is down by 63% compared to the same week last year
Weekly global capacity now at 37m but now expected to reach 40m by the end of the month
June is a pivotal month in many markets but the pace of recovery is not yet certain
MAKE SMARTER MOVES
COVID-19 IMPACT ON GLOBAL AVIATION
Scheduled Flights by Month & Week for selected markets
Month/Week compared with equivalent month/week in previous year
January February March April May 01-Jun 08-Jun 15-Jun 22-Jun
Africa -6.2% -6.0% -22.4% -61.2% -71.3% -69.9% -71.8% -68.4% -71.1%
Europe -3.0% -2.4% -35.7% -88.5% -88.6% -87.0% -85.6% -81.9% -79.7%
Asia 4.2% -24.4% -28.8% -53.7% -47.1% -40.7% -43.4% -41.2% -44.4%
Latin America 1.1% 1.2% -12.9% -69.3% -73.1% -68.8% -72.1% -69.3% -69.9%
North America 0.9% 0.5% -8.2% -58.4% -74.2% -71.9% -68.9% -67.7% -66.2%
Middle East -1.8% -2.2% -27.5% -63.6% -78.7% -68.5% -67.4% -66.7% -67.1%
South West Pacific -3.1% -3.1% -16.6% -79.2% -78.0% -72.5% -70.1% -68.4% -68.3%
GLOBAL 0.8% -8.6% -21.4% -64.5% -68.7% -65.1% -64.8% -62.6% -62.9%
Change in flights vs same week last year - by Region
20.0%
0.0%
Change in flights year-over-year
-20.0%
Africa
-40.0%
Europe
-60.0% Asia
Latin America
-80.0%
North America
-100.0%
06-Jan
13-Jan
20-Jan
27-Jan
03-Feb
10-Feb
17-Feb
24-Feb
06-Apr
13-Apr
20-Apr
27-Apr
02-Mar
09-Mar
16-Mar
23-Mar
30-Mar
04-May
11-May
18-May
25-May
01-Jun
08-Jun
15-Jun
22-Jun
MAKE SMARTER MOVES
SHORT TERM PERIOD STILL VOLATILE OVER DEMAND UNCERTAINTY
Global Domestic Capacity Global International Capacity
80,000,000 60,000,000
70,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
Seats
30,000,000
40,000,000 2019
30,000,000 w/c 25 May 20 20,000,000
20,000,000
w/c 08 June 20
10,000,000
w/c 22 June 20
10,000,000
-
-
08-Jun 15-Jun 22-Jun 29-Jun 06-Jul 13-Jul 20-Jul 27-Jul
For the next 6 weeks carriers have revised For the 6 weeks ahead, international scheduled
schedules since 8 June to take 34m domestic capacity has been revised downwards by 67m
seats out. Two weeks ago the same figure was since 8 June. This position has worsened from
45m. This week, domestic capacity is 51% below 60m two weeks ago. International capacity
last year remains at 85% below last year MAKE SMARTER MOVES
SHORT TERM PERIOD STILL VOLATILE OVER DEMAND UNCERTAINTY
Asia Pacific domestic capacity in July is still International capacity is also considerably down
expected to be 7.6m seats lower than last year. on just two weeks ago as carriers remove 18.5m
In the last 2 weeks, 9.5m seats have been taken seats for July this week and anticipate capacity
out of the schedule for July. will be 35m seats lower than last year.
MAKE SMARTER MOVES
SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR?
Taking a longer look out, it’s clear that there is still considerable capacity to come out
from August onwards.
MAKE SMARTER MOVES
ASIA PACIFIC CHANGES BY COUNTRY
Scheduled Flights by Month & Week for selected markets
Month/Week compared with equivalent month/week in previous year
Countries January February March April May 01-Jun 08-Jun 15-Jun 22-Jun
ALL 0.8% -8.6% -14.8% -64.5% -68.6% -65.1% -64.8% -62.6% -62.9%
Vietnam 27.5% 10.8% -15.0% -78.2% -50.8% -19.7% -26.2% -23.1% -15.6%
China 4.3% -55.1% -40.2% -42.6% -28.8% -19.8% -21.2% -17.9% -23.9%
Japan 2.4% -3.5% -16.5% -40.3% -47.1% -47.8% -48.6% -42.6% -41.0%
South Korea 2.2% -11.6% -49.5% -56.7% -49.5% -46.1% -50.8% -50.5% -50.5%
New Zealand -7.5% -6.9% -9.9% -87.7% -84.0% -61.3% -54.7% -54.9% -56.0%
India 2.1% 6.3% 7.6% -83.3% -56.6% -66.3% -70.2% -68.1% -71.5%
Australia -3.5% -3.2% -5.7% -82.6% -83.2% -82.6% -81.6% -79.3% -78.2%
Malaysia 8.3% -2.6% -28.2% -78.8% -85.3% -87.2% -80.6% -79.6% -80.7%
Philippines 12.0% 2.9% -14.0% -85.1% -89.8% -84.2% -86.6% -76.3% -86.7%
Hong Kong -9.7% -46.5% -77.6% -93.5% -90.4% -89.0% -90.3% -90.6% -90.6%
MAKE SMARTER MOVES

SELECTED COUNTRY MARKETS
Scheduled Flights by Week for selected markets
Week compared with equivalent week in previous year
Domestic capacity falters this week in Cancellation rate up to 50% at PEK &
China due to fears of a second wave in PKX since last week
Beijing
MAKE SMARTER MOVES

DIFFERING AIRLINE APPROACHES- STRATEGY OR CIRCUMSTANCE?
Airlines adding back most capacity
% Change % Change
Week on V's 20th Cancellation
Airline 20-Jan 01-Jun 08-Jun 15-Jun 22-Jun Week Jan Rate 15-Jun
Wizz Air 696,706 805,059 809,247 822,721 837,807 1.8% 20.3% 18.0%
Vietnam Airlines 624,261 477,086 469,012 505,469 592,069 17.1% -5.2% 10.0%
Spring Airlines 559,800 595,620 505,980 524,700 523,080 -0.3% -6.6% 9.0%
Shandong Airlines 677,547 626,239 624,109 627,327 590,485 -5.9% -12.8% 4.0%
Vietjet 511,000 501,700 439,960 436,160 439,160 0.7% -14.1% n/a
Xiamen Airlines Company 850,855 723,901 731,716 767,849 692,731 -9.8% -18.6% 13.0%
All Nippon Airways 1,374,456 1,066,716 1,065,140 1,035,196 1,009,543 -2.5% -26.5% 37.0%
Qatar Airways 979,915 678,320 708,041 714,643 714,715 0.0% -27.1% 8.0%
Shenzhen Airlines 856,720 617,964 631,438 659,082 623,742 -5.4% -27.2% 5.0%
Sichuan Airlines 812,568 603,768 597,360 639,364 588,510 -8.0% -27.6% 9.0% Airlines with least change
MAKE SMARTER MOVES

DIFFERING AIRLINE APPROACHES- STRATEGY OR CIRCUMSTANCE?
WIZZ AIR NETWORK  Wizz Air have scheduled almost the

24-30 June 22-28 June same level of frequency this week as
Metric 2019 2020 the same week last year
Market Pairs 571 632  They are planning to operate more
Frequencies 4,236 4,209 routes this year but on a lower
Seats 834,640 837,807 frequency
 Capacity will be slightly higher than last
year
 Ryanair on the other hand still have most of RYANAIR NETWORK

their fleet on the ground. 24-30 June 22-28 June
 Just 240 of the 1,837 routes they operated Metric 2019 2020
this week last year will operate – 13% Market Pairs 1,837 240
 Capacity this week is at just 7% of the level Frequencies 17,124 1,156
operated in this week last year Seats 3,236,436 218,484
• Will Wizz Air gain first mover advantage on the 48 routes they compete on? MAKE SMARTER MOVES
Differing airline approaches- strategy or circumstance?
QATAR AIRWAYS NETWORK  Qatar Airways will operate 70% of its network
24-30 June 22-28 June this week compared to the same week last
Metric 2019 2020 year.
Market Pairs 165 116  Frequency and capacity will operate at three
Frequencies 3,537 2,660 quarter’s of last year’s levels
Seats 937,315 714,715  Average seats per aircraft are slightly higher
Ave seats per flight 265 269 than last year.
 Average frequency per destination remains
the same
 Emirates have yet to return to anything other
than a minimal service EMIRATES NETWORK
 Less than one third of last year’s route 24-30 June 22-28 June
network is being operated this week Metric 2019 2020
 Capacity this week is at just 6% of the level Market Pairs 149 42
operated in this week last year Frequencies 3,661 254
 Overall, less seats per flight as larger aircraft Seats 1,491,351 91,236
on the ground Ave seats per flight 407 359
MAKE SMARTER MOVES
MANAGE THE
IMPACT
 INCREASE YOUR DATA FREQUENCY
OAG  MONITOR CAPACITY CHANGES
RECOMMENDS  GAIN BUSINESS INSIGHT NOW
 ANALYSE – BE READY FOR GREEN SHOOTS
MAKE SMARTER MOVES

MANAGE THE
IMPACT
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Boom and Bust: Airline Strategies to Get Flying Again

Wilco Sweijen John Grant Mark Clarkson Deirdre Fulton

Followed by your Questions and Answers MAKE SMARTER MOVES

June Global Capacity

Seats (m) by week

MAKE SMARTER MOVES

MAKE SMARTER MOVES

MAKE SMARTER MOVES

WIZZ AIR NETWORK  Wizz Air have scheduled almost the

 Ryanair on the other hand still have most of RYANAIR NETWORK

OAG  MONITOR CAPACITY CHANGES

RECOMMENDS  GAIN BUSINESS INSIGHT NOW

 ANALYSE – BE READY FOR GREEN SHOOTS

MAKE SMARTER MOVES

STAY  REGULAR UPDATES ON OUR COVID-19 PAGE

MAKE SMARTER MOVES

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