Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2127–2141

www.elsevier.com/locate/enconman

Cooling load prediction for buildings using general

regression neural networks
Abdullatif E. Ben-Nakhi, Mohamed A. Mahmoud *

Department of Mechanical Engineering, College of Technology, Kuwait

Received 7 July 2003; accepted 14 October 2003

Abstract
General regression neural networks (GRNN) were designed and trained to investigate the feasibility of
using this technology to optimize HVAC thermal energy storage in public buildings as well as office
buildings. State of the art building simulation software, ESP-r, was used to generate a database covering the
years 1997–2001. The software was used to calculate hourly cooling loads for three office buildings using
climate records in Kuwait. The cooling load data for 1997–2000 was used for training and testing the neural
networks (NN), while robustness of the trained NN was tested by applying them to a ‘‘production’’ data set
(2001 data) that the networks have never ‘‘seen’’ before.
Three buildings of various densities of occupancy and orientational characteristics were investigated.
Parametric studies were performed to determine optimum GRNN design parameters that best predict
cooling load profiles for each building. External hourly temperature readings for a 24 h period were used as
network inputs, and the hourly cooling load for the next day is the output. The performance of the NN
analysis was evaluated using a statistical indicator (the coefficient of multiple determination) and by sta-
tistical analysis of the error patterns, including confidence intervals of regression lines, as well as by
examination of the error patterns.
The results show that a properly designed NN is a powerful instrument for optimizing thermal energy
storage in buildings based only on external temperature records.
Ó 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Neural networks; Energy conservation; Air conditioning; Control; General regression; Building simulation;
Thermal energy storage; Cooling load

*
Corresponding author. Address. P.O. Box 33145, Rumaithya 25562, Kuwait. Tel.: +965-535-1319; fax: +965-534-
9253/+965-481-1753.
E-mail address: drmamm@yahoo.com (M.A. Mahmoud).

0196-8904/$ - see front matter Ó 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.enconman.2003.10.009
2128 A.E. Ben-Nakhi, M.A. Mahmoud / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2127–2141

1. Introduction

Thermal energy storage (TES) employment in heating, ventilating, and air conditioning
(HVAC) systems have many significant advantages [1–5]. TES utilization usually reduces oper-
ating costs, reduces initial costs, decreases the size of HVAC equipment (hence, lowers electric
service equipment), increases operating flexibility, facilitates backup cooling capacity, extends the
capacity of an existing system and reduces HVAC related pollutant emissions (e.g. CO2 and
Chlorofluorocarbon, CFC, refrigerants) [2]. Dincer [4,5] argued that TES can play a significant
role in meeting societyÕs needs for more efficient, environmentally benign energy use in various
sectors and appears to be one of the most promising solutions to correct the mismatch between
supply and demand of energy.
Many storage HVAC systems perform below their expected performance [6,7]. To achieve
optimization of TES, two approaches can be implemented: optimizing TES system design, and
optimizing TES system control [8]. Several publications have covered the basics and approaches
for optimizing TES system design [9–11], while other studies were recently reported on the
optimization of TES systems via employing predictive control schemes that are capable of pre-
dicting the next day thermal load with acceptable accuracy. Nakahara [12] investigated three
kinds of load prediction methods, the Kalman filter (KF), group method of data handling
(GMDH), and neural network (NN). Kawashima et al. [13] investigated four generally used
prediction methods to examine their accuracy for hourly thermal load prediction, concluding that
the NN model produces the most accurate thermal load prediction. They also reported that
predictive control could significantly reduce the operation cost without thermal energy shortage
[14].
TES charging and discharging should be strongly linked with the actual weather for the
next day [15]. To the best of our knowledge, all reported predictive control schemes are based
on first predicting the weather data for the next day [12–17]. The proposed weather predic-
tion schemes are based on weather forecasts issued by meteorological centers. The weather
variables considered include dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation and cloud-
iness condition. The inadequacy of these approaches lies mainly in the need for weather fore-
cast reports, and usually, these reports are manually entered into the TES control. Systems
directly linked to the weather forecast reports, say via the internet, are, to some extent, compli-
cated [15].
In this paper, the feasibility of using neural networks to optimize HVAC thermal energy
storage is demonstrated through prediction of the cooling load profile of the next day directly.
Attention is focused on TES in public and office buildings in which the cooling load during
business hours may be quite high due to high occupancy and high ambient temperature. The
temperature in Kuwait in the summer months can exceed 50 °C in the shade during the daytime
and can exceed 37 °C even at dawn. With such an extreme condition, there is a great potential for
energy conservation in air conditioning in these public buildings if the cooling load is accurately
predicted and the appropriate cooling charge is stored before business hours. The problem with
accurate prediction of the cooling load is that it depends on the weather conditions, which are not
known ahead of time. This requires an advanced tool to predict the cooling load profile based on
past weather history, and artificial neural networks offer an attractive and powerful option for this
purpose.
 A.E. Ben-Nakhi, M.A. Mahmoud / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2127–2141 2129

2. Building simulation software for calculation of cooling loads

One of the most powerful building simulation codes, the ESP-r [18], was used herein to cal-
culate cooling loads for the buildings considered in this study. This state of the art, whole building
simulation software is being evolved and applied at several research centers throughout Europe
since its selection by the European Commission as a reference program for building energy
simulation. This software is based on using integrated dynamic simulation in which the thermal
performance of the building is systemic, i.e. different heat transfer mechanisms (such as the effect
of wind velocity on external heat transfer coefficient) interact in a complex manner. Besides
conduction and convection, all significant heat flow paths are considered. These include internal
and external long wave and short wave radiation and radiation absorption by transparent
materials. The use of such an advanced simulation tool is necessary because thermal analysis of
buildings and their environmental control systems is complex (i.e. transient, multi-dimensional
and highly interactive), making this task difficult and time consuming. The weather inputs to
ESP-r include diffuse solar radiation on the horizontal, external dry bulb temperature, direct
normal solar intensity, prevailing wind speed, wind direction and relative humidity. Weather data
in Kuwait, used herein, were obtained from the Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research for the
five years 1997–2001. The data for 1997–2000 were used to train and test the NNs, and the
robustness of the trained networks was established by applying them to a ‘‘production’’ data set
(data for the year 2001) that the networks have never ‘‘seen’’ before. The cooling load profiles
predicted include hourly loads during business hours and the total load for the entire day.
Three public buildings of different characteristics are considered in this study. The first, denoted
B1, is a two story structure 60 m long, 40 m wide and 9 m high. This building is a high occupancy
density structure and simulates the Immigration Office in Kuwait City. With an expatriate popu-
lation estimated at 1.5 million in Kuwait, thousands visit this building every business day. The
transparent area is about 17% of the total wall area. Table 1 presents other details pertinent to this
building.

Table 1
Details for the three buildings considered in the study
Building B1 Building EW Building SN
Volume (m3 ) 21,600 10,800 10,800
Floor area (m2 ) 2400 1200 1200
Total wall area (m2 ) 1800 1440 1440
Glazing area (m2 ) 312 456 456
Working hours 08:00–15:00 08:00–17:00 08:00–17:00
Infiltration rate (ACH) 0.1 0.1 0.1
Occupancy (persons):
on working hours 1300 200 200
off working hours 5 2 2
Ventilation rate (ACH):
on working hours 1.7 1.0 1.0
off working hours 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lighting (W/m2 floor area):
on working hours 30.0 30.0 30.0
off working hours 1.0 1.0 1.0
2130 A.E. Ben-Nakhi, M.A. Mahmoud / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2127–2141

The second building, denoted EW, is a light occupancy, two story 60 m long, 20 m wide and
9 m high structure. The long side of the building faces east. Each of the eastern and western walls
contains a double glazing transparent area of 87 m2 , while each of the northern and southern walls
contains a double glazing transparent area of 27 m2 . This building simulates the Mechanical
Power Department building on the College of Technology Campus in Kuwait. The large glass
windows allow sun radiation (both direct and indirect) and, thus, contribute to the cooling load
inside the building.
It will be noticed that the NN used in this study uses only external dry bulb temperature as
input to predict the cooling load. Therefore, it was decided to investigate the effect of building
orientation on the NN performance by studying a third building, denoted SN, which is the second
building but rotated 90°, i.e. the northern and southern facßades contain larger transparent areas
than the other two facßades. In this case, the effects on the cooling load of wind and sun radiation
through the windows during business hours are expected to be different from those effects for the
second building. Therefore, reasonably accurate predictions of cooling loads by the NN for both
buildings are a further proof of the robustness of the NN approach.
The building materials used in the numerical models are similar to the common building
materials in Kuwait and consist mainly of cement blocks, sand-lime bricks, cement mortar and
insulation. The thermophysical and optical properties of these materials, together with those of
the double glazing glass, were used as part of the input data to ESP-r to predict cooling loads and
are given in Tables 2 and 3. The site latitude and longitude for the three buildings were assumed to
be similar to Kuwait City (i.e., 29.3°N latitude and 47.9°E longitude) where the ground reflectance
is assumed as 0.2 (ground reflectance is used in external radiation simulation).
In the public buildings considered in this study, the temperature is to be maintained at 24 °C
within building B1 from 8 a.m. to 3 p.m. and within buildings EW and SN from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m.

Table 2
Thermophysical properties of the test cell construction materials
Description Conductivity Density Heat capacity Emissivity Absorptivity
(W/m °C) (kg/m3 ) (J/kg °C)
Sand lime brick 1.310 1918.0 795.3 0.900 0.650
Insulation 0.032 30.0 1214.0 0.900 0.650
Cement mortar 1.000 2085.0 837.0 0.900 0.500
Cement block 1.640 2011.0 921.0 0.900 0.500
Glass (double) 0.760 2710.0 837.0 0.830 0.050

Table 3
Optical properties of glazing materials (double glazing)
Description Data at five angles
0° 40° 55° 70° 80°
Transmission 0.676 0.651 0.604 0.441 0.201
Absorption for the 4 mm clear glass 0.113 0.124 0.134 0.148 0.154
Absorption for the 10 mm air gap 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005
Absorption for the 4 mm clear glass 0.087 0.094 0.097 0.087 0.062
 A.E. Ben-Nakhi, M.A. Mahmoud / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2127–2141 2131

After business hours, the temperature is assumed to be maintained at 30 °C in each building.

Building energy simulation programs may be used to predict cooling loads during these periods
only when the weather conditions are known. This was done in the present study, using ESP-r,
to prepare a database of past history to be used with the NN to predict cooling loads for new
situations before the weather conditions are known.
An artificial neural network is usually defined as a network composed of a large number of
processors (neurons) that are massively interconnected, operate in parallel and learn from
experience (examples). The artificial neural network used in this study is of the general regression
neural network (GRNN) type. A brief description of the algorithm is given in the next section.

3. Neural network algorithm

The GRNN is a one pass learning algorithm that can be used for estimation of continuous
variables and converges to the underlying regression surface. The principal advantages of the
GRNN are its quick learning and fast convergence to an optimal regression surface as the number
of samples becomes large. The overall block diagram of the GRNN in its adaptive form is shown
in Fig. 1. The figure shows a feedforward network that can be used to estimate a vector Y from a
measured vector X . The input units are merely distribution units, which provide the (scaled)
measured variables X to all of the neurons on the second layer, which contains the pattern units.
Each pattern unit (neuron) is dedicated to one exemplar (pattern) or one cluster center. When a
new vector X is entered into the network, it is subtracted from the stored vector representing each
cluster center. The squares of the differences are summed and fed into a nonlinear activation
function. The activation function used herein is logistic, in the form f ðxÞ ¼ 1e1 x , where x is the
input. This function is the most popular one and has been found useful for most network

x1 yˆ f ( x)K

x2
yˆ ( x )

yˆ ' f (x )K
f(x)K yˆ ' ( x )

Output
Input Pattern Units
Units Units Summation
Units

Fig. 1. Block diagram of a general regression neural network.

2132 A.E. Ben-Nakhi, M.A. Mahmoud / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2127–2141

applications [20]. The pattern unitsÕ output is passed on to the summation units. Details of the
GRNN paradigm were provided by Specht [19].
The network ‘‘learns’’ by adjusting the interconnection weights between layers. The answers the
network is producing are repeatedly compared with the correct answers, and each time, the
connecting weights are adjusted slightly in the direction of the correct answers. Eventually, if
the problem is learned, a stable set of weights adaptively evolves that will provide good answers
for all of the sample predictions. The real test of neural networks occurs when the trained network
is able to produce good results for new data.
In this study, over training of the neural networks was prevented by using the so-called Net-
Perfect algorithm [20]. This algorithm optimizes the network by applying the current network to
an independent test set during training. The algorithm finds the optimum network for the data in
the test set (which means that the network is able to generalize well and give good results on new
data), and the algorithm optimizes the smoothing factor based upon the values in the test set. It
does this by trying different smoothing factors and choosing the one that minimizes the mean
squared error between the actual and predicted answers.
GRNN work by measuring how far a given sample pattern is from patterns in the training set
in N -dimensional space, where N is the number of inputs in the problem. In this study, the method
of measuring the distance between patterns was the so-called City-Block distance metric, which is
the sum of the absolute values of the differences in all dimensions between the pattern and the
weight vector for that neuron [19].
The GRNN used in this study was genetic adaptive, i.e. it uses a genetic algorithm to find the
input smoothing factor adjustment. This is used to adapt the overall smoothing factor to provide
a new value for each input. Genetic algorithms use a ‘‘fitness’’ measure to determine which of the
individuals in the population survive and reproduce [21]. The measure of fitness for the GRNN is
the mean squared error of the outputs for the entire data set. The genetic adaptive algorithm seeks
to minimize this mean squared error.
When variables are loaded into a neural network, they must be scaled from their numeric range
into the numeric range that the neural network deals with efficiently. There are two main numeric
ranges the networks commonly operate in: zero to one, denoted ½0; 1, and minus one to one,
denoted ½1; 1. One choice is the use of linear scaling functions for this purpose. Two possible
alternatives to these linear scaling functions are two nonlinear scaling functions: logistic and tanh.
The logistic function scales data to ð0; 1Þ according to the following formula: f ðxÞ ¼ 1=ð1 þ
expðxm =sÞÞ where xm is the average of all of the values of that variable in the pattern file, and s is
the standard deviation of those values. The hyperbolic tangent function (tanh) scales data to
ð1; 1Þ according to: f ðxÞ ¼ tanhðxm =sÞ. As detailed later, a parametric study was conducted to
select the best scaling function for the present application.

4. Neural network results and discussion

One of the objectives of this study was to investigate the feasibility of using neural networks to
estimate the next day cooling load profile before the weather conditions are known. In order to
use neural networks, the simulation algorithm ESP-r was used to generate a database for the years
1997–2001. The data for 1997–2000 were used for training and testing the NN. The patterns in
 A.E. Ben-Nakhi, M.A. Mahmoud / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2127–2141 2133

this database were divided into two sets. The first set consisted of 80% of the data and was used
for training the networks. The second set consisted of the remainder 20%, selected randomly, and
was used for testing the trained networks. To evaluate the usefulness of the networks, the trained
networks are applied to a ‘‘production’’ data set (patterns for the year 2001) that the networks
have never ‘‘seen’’ before.
The input layer to the network consisted of 24 neurons to which temperature readings (re-
corded every hour) between 1:00 and 24:00 (of the previous day) were fed. The hidden layer must
contain a minimum of one neuron for each data pattern; the number was set to 1450. The number
of neurons in the output layer is 1, which corresponds to the output (either the cooling load at a
particular hour of the next day or the total cooling load for the entire day). The statistical
indicator used to evaluate the closeness
P of fit is the coefficient of multiple determination, R2 , that
ðyyp Þ2
can be defined as [20] R2 ¼ 1  Pðyy 2 where y is the actual value, yp is the predicted value of y
mÞ

and ym is the mean of the y values. The coefficient of multiple determination, R2 , compares the
accuracy of the model to the accuracy of a trivial benchmark model wherein the prediction is
simply the mean of all of the samples. A perfect fit would result in an R2 value of 1 and a very
good fit, near 1. The quality of fit decreases as R2 decreases.
A comparison of the NN predictions and the actual values of the hourly cooling load (calcu-
lated using the simulation software ESP-r) at 12:00 is shown in Fig. 2 for building B1 and the year
1999. The figure shows that the NN very closely predicts the cooling load (R2 for this network is
0.9858, which is proof of a very good fit). This shows that the NN is able to learn the training
patterns.
The real test of NN analysis is when it is applied to ÔproductionÕ data, i.e. data the networks
have never ÔseenÕ. The trained networks were applied to the temperature records of the year 2001
for building B1. Fig. 3 shows a sample comparison of the NN predictions of the cooling load at
14:00 and the actual values, and Table 4 shows R2 for each business hour. The figure shows close
agreement between the NN predictions and the actual values. Further analysis of the correlation
between actual values (from ESP-r) and NN predictions were performed Fig. 4 shows another

500

400
Cooling load, kW-hr

300

200

100 ESP-r
NN
0
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360
Julian Day

Fig. 2. Comparison of actual (from ESP-r) and neural hourly cooling load at 12:00, 1999, building B1.
2134 A.E. Ben-Nakhi, M.A. Mahmoud / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2127–2141

500

400

Cooling load, kW-hr

300

200

100 ESP-r
NN
0
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360
Julian Day

Fig. 3. Comparison of actual (from ESP-r) and neural hourly cooling load at 14:00, 2001, building B1.

Table 4
R2 for hourly cooling load predictions, building B1, 2001 data
Hour 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00
R2 0.923 0.951 0.944 0.939 0.939 0.937 0.935 0.935
The NN uses City-Block distance metric and a linear scaling function ½1; 1.

600

400
GRNN

200

0
0 200 400 600
ESP-r

Fig. 4. Comparison of ESP-r and NN predictions of the hourly cooling load (in kW h) in building B1 at 14:00 h in 2001.

plot of the data of Fig. 3. Ideally, the data should fall on a line of slope 1.0. A linear least square
fit through the data showed that the slope of the line of best fit has a slope ÔbÕ of 0.986. The 95%
 A.E. Ben-Nakhi, M.A. Mahmoud / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2127–2141 2135

confidence interval on ÔbÕ lies between 1.013 and 0.960. This means that one cannot reject the null
hypothesis that b ¼ 1, i.e. a 1:1 correlation between ESP-r and NN. This statistical analysis was
performed for each business hour and the results are listed in Table 5. The table shows that for all
cases, one may accept the hypothesis of a 1:1 correlation between the ESP-r values and the NN
predictions. Histogram plots of the errors (difference between NN and best line of fit), show a
close to normal distribution with mean close to 0; these histogram plots are not included herein
for the sake of brevity.
The results presented above were obtained with GRNN using a genetic adaptive algorithm, a
so-called City-Block distance metric and a linear scaling factor for the input data ½1; 1. This
network design was selected as a result of a parametric study of the network design as shown in
Table 6. The study was intended to determine quantitatively the GRNN design that best predicts
the Ôproduction dataÕ (i.e. for year 2001). The variables investigated included (a) different scaling
functions (linear between ½1; 1, linear between ½0; 1, logistic, and hyperbolic tangent ‘‘tanh’’)
and (b) two possible ways of measuring the distance between patterns, namely the City-Block
distance metric [19] and the Euclidean distance metric [22]. Based on the R2 results presented in the
table (top five rows), the optimum design of the GRNN for the present application and building
B1 is one that uses the City-Block distance metric and a linear scaling function between ½1; 1 for
the input data.

Table 5
Point estimates of slope ÔbÕ and the 95% confidence intervals for building B1 at each business hour
Hour b Confidence intervals
08:00 0.985 1:015 P b P 0:956
09:00 0.987 1:011 P b P 0:964
10:00 0.988 1:013 P b P 0:964
11:00 0.987 1:012 P b P 0:961
12:00 0.986 1:012 P b P 0:961
13:00 0.985 1:011 P b P 0:960
14:00 0.986 1:013 P b P 0:960
15:00 0.986 1:012 P b P 0:959
b is the slope of the ESP-r vs. NN plot for 2001.

Table 6
R2 for hourly cooling load predictions and different network parameters, building B1, 2001
Distance metric and scaling Hour
function 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00
City-Block, linear ½1; 1 0.923 0.951 0.944 0.939 0.939 0.937 0.935 0.935
Euclidean, linear ½1; 1 0.920 0.948 0.940 0.937 0.934 0.932 0.93 0.931
City-Block, linear ½0; 1 0.922 0.951 0.943 0.940 0.937 0.934 0.934 0.935
City-Block, logistic 0.921 0.949 0.942 0.939 0.936 0.934 0.934 0.935
City-Block, tanh 0.917 0.947 0.939 0.935 0.932 0.93 0.929 0.931
City-Block, linear ½1; 1; 0.927 0.957 0.948 0.944 0.940 0.938 0.938 0.940
30 h training
2136 A.E. Ben-Nakhi, M.A. Mahmoud / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2127–2141

The neural network predictions reported in the foregoing were obtained at 00:00 hour of a
given day (using temperature readings for the previous 24 h as inputs) with the intention of using

5000

4000
Total cooling load, kW-hr

3000

2000

1000 ESP-r
NN

0
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360
Julian Day

Fig. 5. Comparison of actual (from ESP-r) and neural total daily cooling load, 2001, building B1.

Table 7
R2 for hourly cooling load predictions and different network parameters, building EW, 2001
Distance metric and Hour
scaling function 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00
City-Block, logistic 0.92 0.937 0.929 0.928 0.926 0.922 0.92 0.922 0.933 0.939
Euclidean, linear ½1; 1 0.918 0.933 0.925 0.924 0.922 0.917 0.915 0.918 0.929 0.937
City-Block, linear ½0; 1 0.92 0.936 0.927 0.926 0.924 0.92 0.918 0.921 0.933 0.940
City-Block, linear ½1; 1 0.919 0.935 0.927 0.925 0.923 0.918 0.916 0.92 0.932 0.939
City-Block, tanh 0.917 0.936 0.928 0.926 0.925 0.92 0.918 0.92 0.931 0.939
City-Block, linear ½1; 1; 0.922 0.940 0.933 0.932 0.931 0.927 0.925 0.927 0.937 0.943
30 h training

Table 8
R2 for hourly cooling load predictions and different network parameters, building SN, 2001
Distance metric and scaling Hour
function 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00
City-Block, linear ½1; 1 0.917 0.937 0.926 0.915 0.909 0.904 0.902 0.908 0.926 0.94
Euclidean, linear ½1; 1 0.915 0.934 0.923 0.911 0.905 0.899 0.896 0.901 0.92 0.935
City-Block, linear ½0; 1 0.916 0.935 0.925 0.913 0.907 0.902 0.900 0.906 0.924 0.938
City-Block, logistic 0.914 0.934 0.923 0.911 0.904 0.899 0.897 0.904 0.922 0.937
City-Block, tanh 0.911 0.93 0.918 0.905 0.898 0.892 0.891 0.899 0.919 0.935
City-Block, linear ½1; 1; 0.92 0.939 0.928 0.917 0.912 0.908 0.907 0.914 0.932 0.945
30 h training
 A.E. Ben-Nakhi, M.A. Mahmoud / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2127–2141 2137

them to optimize thermal storage for that particular day. Some authors [13–15] reported that
updating the NN predictions at a later time, say 06:00 hour, would help further in the storage
optimization since the predictions at that time are more realistic. Nevertheless, it should be borne
in mind that by that time most of the storage decisions would have been already made. To
investigate whether prediction updates at 06:00 a.m. are in better agreement with actual values, it
was decided to design and train a new network for each business hour to predict hourly cooling
loads using, as input, temperature readings for the previous 30 h (from 01:00 the day before to
06:00 of the given day). The R2 results presented in the last row of Table 6 show a slight but
consistent improvement in the NN predictions.
One other important aspect for optimizing thermal energy storage in buildings is the total daily
cooling load (TDCL) for the building. To investigate the ability of the NN to predict the TDCL,

300
Cooling load, kW-hr

200

100

ESP-r
NN
0
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360

Julian Day

Fig. 6. Comparison of actual (from ESP-r) and neural hourly cooling load at 17:00, 2001, building EW.
Total cooling load, kW-hr

3000

2000

1000
ESP-r
NN
0
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360
Julian Day

Fig. 7. Comparison of actual (from ESP-r) and neural daily total cooling load, 2001, building EW.
2138 A.E. Ben-Nakhi, M.A. Mahmoud / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2127–2141

a new network was designed and trained; the input layer to the network consisted of 24 neurons to
which temperature readings (recorded every hour) between 1:00 and 24:00 (of the previous day)
were fed, and the number of neurons in the output layer is 1, which corresponds to the output
(TDCL for the day being investigated). Fig. 5 shows a comparison of the NN predictions of the
TDCL and the actual values for the production data (year 2001). The figure shows close agree-
ment between the NN predictions and the actual values; R2 in this case is 0.9552.
The same procedure used to generate Figs. 2–5 and Tables 4–6 for building B1 was used for
buildings EW and SN. This involved (a) using ESP-r to predict hourly and daily total cooling
loads for the years 1997–2001, (b) training six new networks for each business hour using tem-
perature data for 1997–2000 (to determine best NN design as in Table 6) and (c) applying these
trained networks to the temperature records of the ‘‘production’’ year 2001. Tables 7 and 8

300
Cooling load, kW-hr

200

100
ESP-r
NN

0
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360
Julian Day

Fig. 8. Comparison of actual (from ESP-r) and neural hourly cooling load at 16:00, 2001, building SN.
Total cooling load, kW-hr

3000

2000

1000
ESP-r
NN

0
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360
Julian Day

Fig. 9. Comparison of actual (from ESP-r) and neural daily total cooling load, 2001, building SN.
 A.E. Ben-Nakhi, M.A. Mahmoud / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2127–2141 2139

present R2 for the predicted hourly cooling load for buildings EW and SN, respectively. From
these tables, it was determined that the best network design for both buildings is one based on
using the City-Block distance metric, rather than a Euclidean one, and that the best scaling
function for building EW is a logistic function, while the best one for building SN is a linear
½1; 1 function. The last row of each table presents R2 for the hourly load predictions at 06:00
a.m., i.e. when the input temperature readings for the previous 30 h (from 01:00 the day before to
06:00 of the given day) were used. As with building B1, these results show a slight but consistent
improvement in the NN predictions for both buildings.
Figs. 6–9 show sample comparisons of the NN predictions and the actual values for the hourly
and the daily total cooling loads for buildings EW and SN. The figures show close agreement
between the NN predictions and the actual values. The values of R2 for the total daily cooling load
predictions shown in Figs. 7 and 9 are 0.964 and 0.949, respectively.
Further analysis of the correlation between the actual values (from ESP-r) and the NN pre-
dictions for buildings EW and SN were performed as for building B1. Least square regression was
used to determine the slope of the line of best fit between the actual and predicted values (similar

Table 9
Point estimates of slope ÔbÕ and the 95% confidence intervals for building EW
Hour b Confidence intervals
08:00 0.992 1:011 P b P 0:972
09:00 0.986 1:016 P b P 0:956
10:00 0.989 1:015 P b P 0:962
11:00 0.988 1:016 P b P 0:960
12:00 0.987 1:015 P b P 0:959
13:00 0.987 1:015 P b P 0:959
14:00 0.987 1:017 P b P 0:958
15:00 0.988 1:018 P b P 0:958
16:00 0.99 1:019 P b P 0:961
17:00 0.992 1:020 P b P 0:965
b is slope of NN vs. ESP-r plot for 2001.

Table 10
Point estimates of slope ÔbÕ and the 95% confidence intervals for building SN
Hour b Confidence intervals
08:00 0.981 1:011 P b P 0:950
09:00 0.984 1:010 P b P 0:958
10:00 0.983 1:011 P b P 0:955
11:00 0.982 1:011 P b P 0:952
12:00 0.982 1:012 P b P 0:951
13:00 0.983 1:014 P b P 0:951
14:00 0.984 1:016 P b P 0:952
15:00 0.986 1:018 P b P 0:955
16:00 0.988 1:017 P b P 0:960
17:00 0.991 1:017 P b P 0:966
b is slope of NN vs. ESP-r plot for 2001.
2140 A.E. Ben-Nakhi, M.A. Mahmoud / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2127–2141

to Fig. 4). Tables 9 and 10 list the slope ÔbÕ of the lines of best fit and the 95% confidence intervals
on ÔbÕ for buildings EW and SN, respectively. The tables show that for all hourly predictions in
both buildings, one may accept the hypothesis of a 1:1 correlation between the ESP-r values and
the NN predictions. Histogram plots of the errors (difference between NN and best line of fit for
each case) showed close to normal distributions with means close to 0 for all cases.

5. Conclusions

GRNN were designed and trained to investigate the feasibility of using this technology to
optimize HVAC thermal energy storage in public and office buildings. A state of the art whole
building simulation software, the ESP-r system, was used to prepare a database of past history to
be used with the NN to predict cooling load profiles for new situations before the weather con-
ditions are known. Parametric studies of the NN architecture showed that the optimum GRNN
design might differ slightly from one building to another. Six NNs for each business hour were
designed and trained for this purpose. The performance of the NN analysis was evaluated using a
statistical indicator (the coefficient of multiple determination R2 ), establishing confidence intervals
of the slope of regression lines and by examination of the error patterns.
To evaluate the usefulness of the neural networks, the trained networks were applied to a
‘‘production’’ data set (weather patterns for the year 2001) that the networks have never ‘‘seen’’
before. The results of applying the technique on data for three buildings of different occupancy
and orientation characteristics show good prediction (R2 values are high as shown in Tables 6–8).
The success of the NN in accurately predicting cooling load profiles is significant for two
reasons. The first is that the NN can predict these loads before the weather conditions are known.
The second is that building simulation softwares require many more weather inputs than the NNs
do. ESP-r, for instance, requires as inputs diffuse solar radiation on the horizontal, external dry
bulb temperature, direct normal solar intensity, prevailing wind speed, wind direction and relative
humidity. The NN predictions, on the other hand, are based on using the external temperature
only as input. Temperature is perhaps the easiest and most reliable weather data to measure.
Based on this fact, one expects that controllers based on the NN approach will be simple to make
and reliable to use.

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Public Authority for Applied Education and Training,
Kuwait, Grant No. TS-98-014.

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