EISSN: 2602-5183 * PISSN: 1033-2437 104- 95 .‫ﺹ‬.

‫ ﺹ‬،(2020) 01:‫ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬،06 :‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﻭﻜﻤﺔ ﻭﺃﺜﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﻤﻥ ﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ‬
‫ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﺒﺔ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺒﺎﻨل ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻲ‬:2017-1996 ‫ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬MENA ‫ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل‬
The Quality of Governance Indicators and their Impact in Reducing the Fluctuations of Net FDI in
MENA Countries for the Period 1996-2017: Panel Dynamic Approach

2
‫ ﻭﻟﻴﺪ ﺻﺎﺣﺐ‬،*1‫ﺇﺑﺮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺧﻮﻳﻠﺪ‬

(Miharbi1982@mail.com) (‫ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﻗﺎﺻﺪﻱ ﻣﺮﺑﺎﺡ ﻭﺭﻗﻠﺔ )ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ‬،‫ ﳐﱪ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬1
(Saheb.oualid@univ-alger3.dz) (‫ )ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ‬3 ‫ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ‬،‫ ﳐﱪ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﳌﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬2

2019/11/20 : ‫ ؛ ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺦ ﺍﻟﻘﺒﻮﻝ‬2019/10/02 : ‫ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻼﻡ‬

‫ ﻗﺪﻣﻨﺎ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻮﺭﻗﺔ ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺣﻮﻝ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﳌﻘﺺ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﻭﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺗﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻭﻃﺒﻘﻨﺎﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ‬: ‫ﻣﻠﺨﺺ‬
‫ ﻭﺟﺪﻧﺎ ﺃﻥ‬.‫ ﻟﺘﻼﰲ ﻓﻘﺪﺍﻥ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬2017-1996 ‫ ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﲟﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎﺕ ﺛﻼﺛﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬17 ‫ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﻨﺎ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﻧﻞ ﻟـ‬.MENA ‫ﺩﻭﻝ‬
‫ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺃﻇﻬﺮﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺃﻥ‬.‫ﺭ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻭﻡ ﺍﳌﻌﻤﻤﺔ‬‫ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻼﺋﻢ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﲟﻘﺪ‬Mijiyawa (2015) ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻲ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﻣﻦ ﻃﺮﻑ‬
‫ﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﺍﻣﺘﺎﺯﺕ ﺑﺎﳌﻌﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺃﻏﻠﺒﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﳌﻘﻠﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺗﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ ﻻﺳﻴﻤﺎ‬
.‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻮﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﻭﺍﻷﻣﲏ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺋﺪ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬
.‫ ؛ ﻣﻌﻄﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﻧﻞ ؛ ﻋﺰﻭﻡ ﻣﻌﻤﻤﺔ‬MENA ‫ ﺣﻮﻛﻤﺔ ؛ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ؛‬: ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻔﺘﺎﺡ‬
O449 ‫ ؛‬O116 ‫ ؛‬F221 : JEL ‫ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻒ‬

Abstract: In this paper, we presented concepts on the scissors effect between governance
indicators and the fluctuations of net FDI inflows and we applied them to the MENA countries. We
used PANEL data for 17 countries with triple averages over the period 1996-2017 to avoid missing
some data. We found that the proposed dynamic model by Mijiyawa (2015) is appropriate for this
study with the GMM system estimate. The results showed that the quality of the governance
indicators was mostly significant and the effect of reducing the fluctuations of the FDI inflows in
the long term, especially the indicator of the political and security situation prevailing in the region.

Keywords: Governance ; Fluctuations of FDI ; MENA ; Panel Data ; GMM.

Jel Classification Codes : F221 ; O116 ; O449

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 *

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‫ﺍﺒﺭﺍﻫﻴﻡ ﺨﻭﻴﻠﺩ & ﻭﻟﻴﺩ ﺼﺎﺤﺏ‪ ،‬ﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﻭﻜﻤﺔ ﻭﺃﺜﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﻤﻥ ﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ‪) ،MENA‬ﺹ‪.‬ﺹ‪(104-95.‬‬

‫‪ -I‬ﲤﻬﻴﺪ‬
‫ﺃﺳﻬﻤﺖ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﳌﺔ ﰲ ﲢﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﻭﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺗﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ )‪ ،(FDI‬ﻭﻷﳘﻴﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ ﰲ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻧﻘﻠﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﻭﻣﺴﺎﳘﺘﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺭﻓﻊ ﻧﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﻭﻣﻨﻪ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻴﺰﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺍﻟﱵ‬
‫ﺗﺴﺘﻔﻴﺪ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﻀﻴﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﺩﺧﻠﺖ ﰲ ﺳﺒﺎﻕ ﳉﺬﺏ ﺍﳌﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﺪ‪ ‬ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﺍﳉﻴﺪﺓ ﺇﺣﺪﻯ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺎﺥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﻟﻠﺪﻭﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﺟﺎﺫﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﺗﺴﻌﻰ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺇﱃ ﺟﺬﺏ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﺑﺘﻬﻴﺌﺔ ﻣﻨﺎﺥ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻼﺀﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺑﺮﺓ ﻟﻠﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﻔﺰ ﺩﺧﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻭﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻘﺎﺋﻪ ﺃﻃﻮﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﳑﻜﻨﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺳﻂ ﻭﴰﺎﻝ ﺇﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ )‪ ،(MENA‬ﻛﺠﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻲ‪ ،‬ﺷﻬﺪﺕ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ ﻋﺪﺩﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻹﳚﺎﺑﻴﺔ ﰲ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﻨﺎﺥ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ‪ .‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﲤﻜﻨﺖ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﺎﺩﺓ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺍﺣﺘﻠﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﻠﺤﺔ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﺷﺮﻋﺖ ﰲ‬
‫ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﻌﺎﻑ ﻭﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺇﻋﻤﺎﺭ؛ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻭﺍﺻﻠﺖ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﻣﺼﺮ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺇﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺳﻌﺔ؛ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻭﺍﺻﻞ ﺍﻟﻼﺟﺌﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﺭﻳﻮﻥ ﻭﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﻴﻔﺔ ﳍﻢ ﰲ ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻭﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺇﻇﻬﺎﺭ ﻗﺪﺭ ﻻ ﺑﺄﺱ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻤﻞ؛ ﻭﻗﺪ ﺷﻬﺪﺕ ﻟﻴﺒﻴﺎ ﲡﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﻣﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺣﻠﻮﻝ ﻷﺯﻣﺘﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻭﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺩﻋﺖ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺍﳉﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻋﻠﺔ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﰲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ ﺳﻴﻤﺎ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﻟﺘﺤﺴﲔ ﺍﳊﻜﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺪﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻭﺍﶈﻠﻲ؛ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻋﺮ‪‬ﻑ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ‬
‫ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ "ﺑﺄ‪‬ﺎ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﳑﺎﺭﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻄﺔ ﰲ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻠﺪ"‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻋﺮﻓﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﻭﻧﻜﺘﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃ‪‬ﺎ "ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ‪‬ﺎ‬
‫ﺍﳉﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻋﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ‪ ،‬ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﳌﺪﱐ ﳉﻌﻞ ﺍ‪‬ﺘﻤﻊ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ"‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎﻡ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺭﺷﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﳍﺎ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺇﳚﺎﰊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻧﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﲡﺘﺬﺏ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﺍﳉﻴﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎﻣﻼ ﻫﺎﻣﺎ ﳉﺬﺏ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺼﺮ‬
‫ﺧﺎﺹ ﻟﻪ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﺑﺎﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻧﻌﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﺴﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺸﲑ ﺇﱃ ﻏﻴﺎﺏ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﻫﺪﻓﺖ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻮﺭﻗﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﺑﺎﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺷﻜﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻫﻞ ﺗﻘﻠﻞ ﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺗﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ‪ MENA‬ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 2017-1996‬؟‬
‫ﻟﻺﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻹﺷﻜﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻧﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫ﲨﻴﻊ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﳍﺎ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﳌﻘﺺ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ‪.MENA‬‬
‫‪ -II‬ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻷﺩﺑﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺳﻨﺤﻠﻞ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﶈﻮﺭ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﻭﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳉﻮﺩﺓ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺗﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﳌﻘﺺ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ‪ .MENA‬ﻭﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻧﺘﻘﺼﻰ ﳏﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -1-II‬ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺗﻘﺴﻢ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﻴﺔ ﺭﲰﻴﺔ ﺗﻌﺮﻑ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ )ﺍﻟﺪﺳﺎﺗﲑ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﻭﺍﳌﺮﺍﺳﻴﻢ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ(‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ )ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﻠﻜﻴﺔ( ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﻴﺔ ﻏﲑ ﺭﲰﻴﺔ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻠﻮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻗﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﺭ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺎﻓﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﻌﺘﻘﺪﺍﺕ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ )‪ (North, D. C,1990‬ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺭﲰﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ ﻫﻲ ﻣﺼﺪﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﲑ ﻭﺍﳉﻮﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﲰﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻤﻮﻣﺎ‪ ،‬ﺗﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﳉﻮﺩﺓ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺭﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ‪ :‬ﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺆﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﻤﻲ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻤﺘﻠﻜﺎﺕ ﻭﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﺎ‪‬ﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳊﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﳌﻔﺮﻭﺿﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳊﻜﺎﻡ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﲤﺘﺰﺝ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﻛﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻷﺣﺮﻯ ﻫﻲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﳋﱪﺍﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺃﳘﻬﺎ ‪ :‬ﺍﻷﻣﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺍﺙ )‪ (Heritage Foundation‬ﻭﻏﲑﻫﻢ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺳﺘﺔ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﳉﻮﺩﺓ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ‪ :‬ﺻﻮﺕ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻃﻦ‬
‫ﻭﻣﺴﺆﻭﻟﻴﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﻭﻏﻴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﻒ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻊ‪ ،‬ﺳﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﻄﺮﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﺴﺎﺩ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ‬
‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎﺕ ﺗﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﻣﻦ ‪ 2.5-‬ﺇﱃ ‪ ،2.5+‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺍﻗﺘﺮﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻘﻴﻂ ﻣﻦ ‪ 2.5+‬ﻓﻬﺬﺍ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﺣﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﺭﺷﻴﺪﺓ‪ .‬ﻧﺸﲑ ﺑﺎﻗﺘﻀﺎﺏ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺘﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﳉﻮﺩﺓ ﺍﳊﻜﻢ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ )‪: (Worldwide Governance Indicators ,2019‬‬

‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪- 96 -‬‬

 ‫‪EISSN: 2602-5183 * PISSN: 1033-2437‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺩ‪ ،06 :‬ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‪ ،(2020) 01:‬ﺹ‪.‬ﺹ‪104- 95 .‬‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬

‫‪ CC‬ﲤﺜﻞ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻄﺮﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﺴﺎﺩ )‪ : (Control of Corruption‬ﻳﻘﻴﺲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻟﻪ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﺃﻥ ﲢﺠﻢ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻜﺎﺳﺐ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﲑﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﺒﲑﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﳊﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻴﻄﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺨﺐ ﻭﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﱀ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳊﻜﻢ‪.‬‬
‫‪ GE‬ﲤﺜﻞ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ )‪ : (Government Effectiveness‬ﻳﻘﻴﺲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﻣﺪﺓ ﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﻧﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﻼﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﻐﻮﻁ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﻭﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﻭﻣﺼﺪﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺰﺍﻡ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ‪‬ﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ PS‬ﲤﺜﻞ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ )‪ : (Political Stability and Absence of Violence‬ﻳﻘﻴﺲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺯﻋﺰﻋﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺣﺪﻭﺙ ﺍﻧﻘﻼﺏ ﻏﲑ ﺷﺮﻋﻲ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﻒ ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﻒ ﺫﻭ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﺑﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﻭﺍﻹﺭﻫﺎﰊ‪.‬‬
‫‪ RQ‬ﲤﺜﻞ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻬﺎ )‪ : (Regulatory Quality‬ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺻﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﻭﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﻟﻮﺍﺋﺢ‬
‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄ‪‬ﺎ ﺩﻋﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ‪.‬‬
‫‪ RL‬ﲤﺜﻞ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺳﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻥ )‪ : (Rule of Law‬ﻳﻘﻴﺲ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺛﻘﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺘﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺧﺎﺹ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﰲ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺇﻧﻔﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﲪﺎﻳﺔ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﻠﻜﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻃﺔ ﻭﺍﶈﺎﻛﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻦ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺣﺪﻭﺙ ﺍﳉﺮﺍﺋﻢ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻨﻒ‪.‬‬
‫‪ VA‬ﲤﺜﻞ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺎﺀﻟﺔ )‪ : (Voice and Accountability‬ﻳﻘﻴﺲ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﻣﻮﺍﻃﲏ ﺑﻠﺪ ﻣﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ‬
‫ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺘﻬﻢ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺣﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﲑ ﻭﺣﺮﻳﺔ ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺍﳉﻤﻌﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺣﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﻋﻼﻡ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2-II‬ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺪﺩﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺎﻭﻟﺖ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ )‪& Globerman‬‬
‫‪ (Shapiro, 2003‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﲝﺜﺖ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﻛﻤﺤﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﳏﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ ،Probit‬ﻭﺃﺷﺎﺭﺕ‬
‫ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﺗﻌﺪ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﻻﺳﺘﻘﻄﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺮﻳﺪ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﻄﺎﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ ﻻﺑﺪ ﳍﺎ ﺃﻥ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﺍﳉﻴﺪﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻣﺎ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ )‪ (Asiedu, 2005‬ﻓﺪﺭﺳﺖ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﻭﻧﻮﻋﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﻀﻴﻔﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﺑﺎﻧﻞ ﻟـ ‪ 22‬ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺇﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ ،2000-1984‬ﻭﺗﻮﺻﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ‬
‫ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﲑﺓ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺘﻴﺔ ﺍﳉﻴﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻢ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ‪ ،‬ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﱐ ﻓﻌﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺟﻴﺪ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﱵ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺰﺯ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ‪ .‬ﰲ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺑﻞ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺴﺎﺩ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﳍﻤﺎ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﻋﻜﺴﻲ؛ ﺃﻱ ﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ )ﺳﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻥ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻄﺮﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﺴﺎﺩ( ﳍﺎ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺇﳚﺎﰊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﺷﺎﺭﺕ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ )‪ (Samimi & Ariani, 2010‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﺖ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﻧﻞ ﻟـ ‪ 16‬ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺳﻂ ﻭﴰﺎﻝ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ‬
‫)‪ (MENA‬ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ ،2007–2002‬ﺃﺷﺎﺭﺕ ﺇﱃ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﺍﳉﻴﺪﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﻟﻠﺤﻜﻢ ﻫﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻄﺮﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﺴﺎﺩ ﻭﺳﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻥ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻇﻬﺮ ﺍﻷﺛﺮ ﺍﻹﳚﺎﰊ ﻟﻠﺤﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﺍﳉﻴﺪﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﺇﱃ‬
‫ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺳﻂ ﻭﴰﺎﻝ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﻡ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ )‪ (Hossain & Rahman, 2017‬ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﺎﻭﻻ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﳍﺎ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﻧﻞ ﻟـ ‪ 80‬ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻧﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ .2014-1998‬ﻭﺃﺷﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺴﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺠﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻳﻀﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﻇﻬﺮﺕ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ )‪ (Andrés & Gilles, 2017‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻀﻤﻨﺖ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﻴﺔ ﻟـ ‪ 22‬ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﺮﺍﺀ‪،‬‬
‫ﺃﻇﻬﺮﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﻠﻌﺒﻪ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﰲ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﻄﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ .2015-1996‬ﻭﺑﻴﻨﺖ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ‬
‫ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﳏﺪﺩﺓ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﰲ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﻄﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ‪.‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﻡ )ﺳﺮﺩﻭﻙ ﻭﻋﺪﻭﻛﺔ‪ (2017 ،‬ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﰲ ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﻐﺮﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ‪‬ﺪﻑ ﺇﺑﺮﺍﺯ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺣﺠﻢ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﻐﺮﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﻧﻞ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ .2016-1996‬ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻌﻤﻼ ﺛﻼﺙ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺤﻮﻛﻤﺔ )ﺳﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ(‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺃﺷﺎﺭﺕ ﺇﱃ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺳﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻥ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﺒﺭﺍﻫﻴﻡ ﺨﻭﻴﻠﺩ & ﻭﻟﻴﺩ ﺼﺎﺤﺏ‪ ،‬ﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﻭﻜﻤﺔ ﻭﺃﺜﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﻤﻥ ﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ‪) ،MENA‬ﺹ‪.‬ﺹ‪(104-95.‬‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻬﻤﺔ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ )‪ (Dago & Diaw, 2018‬ﻭ )‪ (Nkoa & Song, 2018‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺎﻭﻟﺖ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﰲ ﺗﻔﺴﲑ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﻧﻞ ﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺇﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﺮﺍﺀ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 2015-2000‬ﻭ ‪2014-1996‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﱄ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻮﺻﻠﻮﺍ ﺇﱃ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺇﳚﺎﺑﻴﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﻭﺟﺎﺫﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3-II‬ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ‪MENA‬‬
‫ﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻧﺘﻌﺎﺷﺎ ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﺤﺴﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺮ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻣﺔ‪ .‬ﰲ ﺣﲔ ﺗﺸﻬﺪ ﺑﻌﺾ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺭﺣﻰ ﺍﳊﺮﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻻ ﺗﺰﺍﻝ ﺩﺍﺋﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺳﻮﺭﻳﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﻴﻤﻦ‪ ،‬ﻣﻠﺤﻘﺔ ﺧﺴﺎﺋﺮ ﻓﺎﺩﺣﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﺭﻭﺍﺡ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺘﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ‬
‫ﺗﺰﺍﻝ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﻡ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺳﻂ ﺗﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﻣﻜﺎ‪‬ﺎ ﻭﺗﺸﻜﻞ ﲢﺪﻳﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻐﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﲣﺎﻃﺮ ﺃﺟﺰﺍﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﲞﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﺟﻴﻞ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻃﻔﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺘﺴﺮﺑﲔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ ﻟﻴﻘﻌﻮﺍ ﰲ ﺑﺮﺍﺛﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﺍﻉ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻨﻒ‪ .‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻓﺸﻞ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﻭﻗﻒ ﺇﻃﻼﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺳﻮﺭﻳﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳊﺮﺏ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺎﺭﻙ ﺿﺪ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻢ‬
‫ﺩﺍﻋﺶ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺍﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﰲ ﻟﻴﺒﻴﺎ ﺟﺰﺀﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻠﻘﺔ ﻣﺘﻮﺍﺻﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﺍﻉ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺃﺩ‪‬ﻯ ﺇﱃ ﻧﺰﻭﺡ ﺃﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺇﺯﻫﺎﻕ ﺍﻷﺭﻭﺍﺡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺪﻣﲑ ﻣﺮﺍﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺘﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻛﺎﻥ ﻟﻶﺛﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺪﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻋﺒ‪‬ﺮ ﺍﳊﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﺜﱠﻠﺖ ﰲ ﻋﺮﻗﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺭﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ‪ ،FDI‬ﻭﺿﻐﻮﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﻃﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﳌﺘﺼﻠﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻼﺟﺌﲔ ﻭﺍﻷﻭﺿﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻣﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻘﺪﺍﻥ ﻋﺎﺋﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ﺃﺿﺮﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺟﺴﻴﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﳑﺘﺪﺓ ﻭﻭﺍﺳﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﰲ ﺃﳓﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ )ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ‪.(2019 ،‬‬
‫ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﳉﻴﺪ ﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺑﻠﻐﺖ ‪ %3‬ﺳﻨﺔ ‪ 2018‬ﺃﻱ ﺿﻌﻔﻲ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﺍﻩ‬
‫ﰲ ‪ ،2017‬ﺳﺒﺒﺎ ﰲ ﲢﺴﻦ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ‪ FDI‬ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻣﺪﻋﻮﻣﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻹﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﻣﻴﺔ ﺇﱃ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺗﻘﻠﻴﺺ‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻻﺕ ﻣﻮﺍﺯﻳﻦ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2018‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﺑﻌﺪﻩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﻐﺮﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﻟﻴﺲ ﺃﺣﺴﻦ ﺣﺎﻻ ﻣﻦ ﺑﺎﻗﻲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻟﻮﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﻭﺍﻷﻣﲏ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻣﺮﺕ ‪‬ﺎ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺧﻔﺾ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﲝﻮﺍﱄ ‪ %50‬ﰲ ﺗﻮﻧﺲ ﺳﻨﺔ ‪ .2012‬ﻭﰲ ﻣﺼﺮ ﺗﺮﺍﺟﻌﺖ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺣﻮﺍﱄ ‪ %75‬ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻧﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﺿﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ‪ .‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ ﻓﺸﻬﺪﺕ ﺳﻨﺔ ‪ 2013‬ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﻫﺎﺋﻦ ﺑﻌﲔ ﺃﻣﻨﺎﺱ‪ ،‬ﻋﺮﻓﺖ ﺑﺴﺒﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﺧﺴﺎﺋﺮ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -1-3-II‬ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﳌﻘﺺ ‪Scissors Effect‬‬
‫ﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﺩﻧﺎﻩ ﺗﻄﻮﺭ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺷﻬﺪ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺗﺮﺍﻭﺣﺖ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﻹﳚﺎﰊ ﺑﲔ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ‬
‫‪ 2007-2002‬ﻭﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ‪ 2013-2010‬ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﺭ ﺳﻠﺒﻴﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻷﻋﻮﺍﻡ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻻﺳﻴﻤﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ‪ .‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ ﺃﺛﺮ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻘﺺ ﰲ ﺛﻼﺙ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﻣﺘﻤﻴﺰﺓ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﻻ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ‪ 2004-1996‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﻳﻘﺎﺑﻠﻬﺎ ﻗﻠﻴﻼ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ‪ .FDI‬ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ‪ 2013-2005‬ﺍﻟﱵ‬
‫ﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﻛﱪ ﰲ ‪ FDI‬ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻧﺴﱯ ﰲ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺗﻠﻘﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻐﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻄﻴﺔ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ‪ .‬ﺛﺎﻟﺜﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﻣﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ ‪ 2013‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﺍﺧﺘﻔﻰ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﳌﻘﺺ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺍﻟﱰﺍﻋﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺴﺠﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﲟﺎ ﲰﻲ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ‪ FDI‬ﱂ ﻳﻜﻦ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺷﻬﺪﺕ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺿﺎ‬
‫ﳏﺴﻮﺳﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻔﺴﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺗﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ‪ MENA‬ﲜﻮﺩﺓ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺳﻨﺔ ‪ ،2013‬ﺑﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺃﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﰲ ﺗﺬﺑﺬﺏ ﻭﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﻮﻟﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﻮﻇﺎﺋﻒ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃ‪‬ﺎ‬
‫ﺗﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﻮﺿﻮﺡ ﺑﻀﻌﻒ ﻣﻨﺎﺥ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻈﻞ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺎﹰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻣﺘﻴﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻨﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺍﳊﻤﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﻤﻨﻮﺣﺔ‬
‫ﶈﺘﻜﺮﻱ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺗﺼﺎﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﰲ ﺗﻮﻧﺲ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮﻫﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺝ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﻘﻮﺽ ﻗﺪﺭ‪‬ﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﰲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ –III‬ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ‪ ،‬ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻄﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫‪ -1-III‬ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻲ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ‪ FDI‬ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ‪ ،MENA‬ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻲ ﻣﻌﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻃﺮﻑ‬
‫)‪ ،(Mijiyawa ,2015‬ﻭﻷﺟﻞ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺎﺑﻄﺔ ﻧﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ )‪ ،Buchanan et al. (2016‬ﻭﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ‪ FDI‬ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ‬
‫)‪ Buchanan et al. (2012‬ﻭ )‪.Komlan (2016‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺨﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﻣﻌﻄﺎﺓ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ )‪: (1‬‬

‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪- 98 -‬‬

 ‫‪EISSN: 2602-5183 * PISSN: 1033-2437‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺩ‪ ،06 :‬ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‪ ،(2020) 01:‬ﺹ‪.‬ﺹ‪104- 95 .‬‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬

‫)‪(1‬‬
‫ﺗﻘﻴﺲ ﺗﻘﻠﺐ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ‪ FDI‬ﻛﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺍﳋﺎﻡ ‪ GDP‬ﻟﻠﺪﻭﻟﺔ ‪ i‬ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ‪ ،t‬ﺣﺴﺐ ‪Broto et al.‬‬
‫)‪ (2011‬ﲢﺴﺐ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫)‪(2‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﰊ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﻟـ ‪ FDI‬ﻟﻠﺪﻭﻟﺔ ‪ i‬ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪.T‬‬ ‫ﲤﺜﻞ‬

‫ﲤﺜﻞ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ‪ FDI‬ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻭﻟﺔ ‪ i‬ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ‪ .t-1‬ﻳﺴﻤﺢ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﲑ ﺑﺘﻼﰲ ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠﺴﻠﻲ ﻟﻸﺧﻄﺎﺀ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻳﻘﻴﺲ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﺎﻫﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﰲ ‪ FDI‬ﰲ ﺍﳌﺎﺿﻲ ﺣﺴﺐ )‪ ،Singh et Jun (1995‬ﻭﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺣﺴﺐ ‪Asiedu‬‬
‫)‪ et Lien (2011‬ﺗﻌﱪ ‪ FDI‬ﺍﳌﺆﺧﺮﺓ ﺑﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺛﺮ ﺍﻟﺮﺟﻌﻲ ﺍﻹﳚﺎﰊ ﻟـ ‪ FDI‬ﰲ ﺍﳌﺎﺿﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ FDI‬ﺍﳊﺎﱄ؛ ﻷﻥ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻳﻔﻀﻠﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬
‫ﰲ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﻣﺄﻟﻮﻓﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﳚﺬﺏ ‪ FDI‬ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﲤﺜﻞ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﺍﳉﻴﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺘﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﺎﺭﺓ ﻟﻺﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺷﻜﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﺴﺒﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻌﻄﻴﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﲤﺜﻞ ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺎﺑﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ GFCF -‬ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺍﻛﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﲰﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ ﻛﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪GDP‬؛‬
‫‪ SES -‬ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺮﻱ ﻣﻘﺮ‪‬ﺏ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺠﻠﲔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻮﻱ )ﻫﺆﻻﺀ ﻣﻦ ﻳﺴﻬﻞ ﺍﺳﺘﻴﻌﺎ‪‬ﻢ ﻟﻠﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺜﺔ(؛‬
‫‪ FTS -‬ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺘﻴﺔ ﻣﻘﺮﺑﺔ ﺑﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﻁ ﺍﳍﺎﺗﻔﻴﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ‪ 100‬ﻣﻘﻴﻢ )ﻭﻫﻮ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻘﻠﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﻭﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ(؛‬
‫‪ LGDP -‬ﻟﻮﻏﺎﺭﻳﺘﻢ ﻧﺼﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ﻣﻦ ‪) GDP‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﺪﺩ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ(؛‬
‫‪ NRR -‬ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﺍﻟﺜﺮﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﻣﻘﺎﺳﺔ ﲟﺪﺍﺧﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻛﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪) GDP‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﺎﺫﺑﻴﺔ ‪.(FDI‬‬
‫ﲤﺜﻞ ﺣﺪ ﺍﳋﻄﺄ ﺍﳌﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ‪ νi‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘﻴﺲ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩﻳﺔ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻫﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﺪﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭ ‪ μt‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺴﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ ﺑﲔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ‪ βk .‬ﻫﻲ ﻣﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭﺓ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2-III‬ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ‬
‫ﻣﺪﺧﻼﺕ ‪ FDI‬ﺗﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺁﻧﻴﺎ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﺘﻐﲑ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﳝﻴﺰ )‪ Roland (2004‬ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺳﺮﻳﻌﺔ ﺍﳊﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺑﻄﻴﺌﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳊﺮﻛﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﺪﻋﻢ ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﺑﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﻧﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻲ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺍﳌﺆﺧﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺪﻭﻝ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻫﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﺬﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺟﻌﻴﺔ )‪ (Feed Back‬ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ ﻭﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﺗﺴﺒﺐ ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺄ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ‬
‫)‪ (Endogeneity‬ﰲ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﻴﻤﲔ ﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻟﺘﺠﺎﻫﻞ ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﻣﻬﻢ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺃﻭ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻔﺴﺮﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺻﻌﻮﺑﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻷﺧﻄﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺇﺫﻥ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻭﻡ ﺍﳌﻌﻤﻤﺔ )‪ (GMM‬ﺃﻛﻔﺄ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻘﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﻛﻨﺔ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﻛﻬﺬﻩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ‪ GMM‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻨﻮﻉ ﺇﱃ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻃﺮﻑ )‪ Arrelano et Bond (1991‬ﻭ )‪Arrelano et Bover (1995‬‬
‫ﻭﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ )‪ (GMM System‬ﺍﳌﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻃﺮﻑ )‪ Blundell et Bond (1998‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺸﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﳋﻄﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺄ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﻭﲢﻴﺰ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﺎﻫﻠﺔ )‪ .(Omitted Variables Bias‬ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺗﺒﺪﻭ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺎ ﺃﻛﻔﺄ ﻣﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﻗﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻟﻜﻦ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﳑﺎ ﳚﻌﻠﻬﺎ ﻏﲑ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﻛﺜﲑﺓ‪ ،‬ﺳﻨﺘﻐﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻹﺷﻜﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻼﺣﻴﺔ ‪.Sargan-Hansen‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺷﻬﺪ‪‬ﺎ ﻃﺮﻕ ‪ GMM‬ﺩﻭﻣﺎ ﺗﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺆﺧﺮﺓ ﻛﺄﺩﻭﺍﺕ )‪ (Arrelano et Bond‬ﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﺳﺘﻌﺎﱐ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﻌﻒ ﻭﲢﻴﺰ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭ‬
‫ﻻﺳﻴﻤﺎ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﲑﺓ ﺣﺴﺐ ‪ Arrelano et Bover‬ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﲑ ﻋﻦ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻲ ﻳﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺮﻯ‬
‫‪ Blundell et Bond‬ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻀﻌﻒ ﺳﺒﺒﻪ ﻏﻴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﰲ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﺍﻫﺎ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺮﺣﻮﺍ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﻴﺰﺓ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻘﺎﺭﺑﺔ )‪.(Convergent‬‬
‫ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺎ‪ ،‬ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺍﳌﱪﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺬﻛﻮﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﲟﱪﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ‪ .‬ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﺳﻨﻔﺎﺿﻞ ﺑﲔ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﻭﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻗﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺍﻹ‪‬ﺎﻣﻮﺫﻟﻚ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‬
‫)‪: (Blundell, R., Bond, S., & Windmeijer, F,2001).‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﻻ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻌﻲ )‪ (POLS‬ﻭﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ )‪ (FE‬ﰒ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻣﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻲ ﻟـ ‪ POLS‬ﺣﺪﺍ‬
‫ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻣﻘﺪﺭ ‪ FE‬ﺣﺪﺍ ﺃﺩﱏ‪ .‬ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﻗﺎﺕ ‪ ،GMM‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭ ﻗﺮﻳﺐ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻘﺪﺭ ‪ FE‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﻫﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺿﻌﻒ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﺒﺭﺍﻫﻴﻡ ﺨﻭﻴﻠﺩ & ﻭﻟﻴﺩ ﺼﺎﺤﺏ‪ ،‬ﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﻭﻜﻤﺔ ﻭﺃﺜﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﻤﻥ ﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ‪) ،MENA‬ﺹ‪.‬ﺹ‪(104-95.‬‬

‫ﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻭﻟﺘﺠﻨﺐ ﺍﻹﻓﺮﺍﻁ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪﻫﺎ ﻧﺘﺒﻊ ﻗﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺍﻹ‪‬ﺎﻡ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻗﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ) ‪Barajas et‬‬
‫‪.(al. 2013‬‬
‫‪ -3-III‬ﺍﳌﻌﻄﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﰎ ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﻌﻄﻴﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻜﻢ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ) ‪Worldwide‬‬
‫‪ .(Gouvernance Indicators‬ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﴰﻠﺖ ﺩﻭﻝ ﴰﺎﻝ ﺇﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺮﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺳﻂ )‪ (MENA‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺸﻤﻞ ‪ 25‬ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ـ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ )ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ‪(2019 ،‬ـ ﻫﻲ ‪ :‬ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﻧﺲ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﻐﺮﺏ‪ ،‬ﻟﻴﺒﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﻮﺭﻳﺘﺎﻧﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﺼﺮ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺭﻳﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﻠﺴﻄﲔ‪ ،‬ﺇﻳﺮﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻗﻄﺮ‪ ،‬ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﻠﺴﻄﲔ‪ ،‬ﻗﻄﺮ‪ ،‬ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻦ‪ ،‬ﺳﻠﻄﻨﺔ ﻋﻤﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺴﻮﺩﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺼﻮﻣﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺍﻕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻹﻣﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺮﻳﻦ‪ .‬ﻓﺘﺮﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻣﺘﺪﺕ ﻣﻦ ‪ 1996‬ﺇﱃ ‪ .2017‬ﰎ ﺍﺳﺘﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﺩﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺼﻮﻣﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺟﻴﺒﻮﰐ‪ ،‬ﻗﻄﺮ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻦ‪ ،‬ﻓﻠﺴﻄﲔ ﺍﶈﺘﻠﺔ ﻟﻔﻘﺪﺍﻥ ﻛﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎ‪‬ﺎ ‪،‬‬
‫ﰲ ﺣﲔ ﺗﻌﺎﻣﻠﻨﺎ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻔﻘﻮﺩﺓ ﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﺑﺄﺧﺬ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎﺕ ﺛﻼﺛﻴﺔ ﳉﻤﻴﻊ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﰲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ –IV‬ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬
‫‪ -1-IV‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻭﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬
‫ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﻣﻮﺿﺤﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ )‪ (1‬ﻭﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﻏﻴﺎﺏ ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﳋﻄﻲ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻣﻌﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﺑﲔ‬
‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﺪﻑ )‪ .(VFDI‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﺎﺕ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﺗﺮﺍﻭﺣﺖ ﺑﲔ ‪ %58‬ﻭ ‪ %90‬ﻣﺎﻋﺪﺍ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ )‪ (VA‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﺎﺗﻪ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺑﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻟﻠﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ‪ GMM‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﺘﺎﺯ ﺑﺘﺜﺒﻴﺖ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃ‪‬ﺎ ﺗﻌﺎﰿ ﲢﻴﺰ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺄ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﻭﺁﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺴﺒﺎﻥ ﺳﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﺬﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺟﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﺧﻄﺎﺀ ﲡﺎﻫﻞ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﻣﻬﻤﺔ )ﺳﻮﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﻒ(‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳉﺪﺍﻭﻝ )‪ (2‬ﻭ)‪ (3‬ﺃﻥ ﻣﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ )ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ( ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﻫﻲ ﺍﳌﻔﻀﻠﺔ ﻭﻫﻮ ﻣﺎ‬
‫ﻳﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺴﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺬﻛﻮﺭﺓ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺎ‪ .‬ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ )‪ (4‬ﻳﺒﲔ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻭﻡ ﺍﳌﻌﻤﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻼﺳﻞ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ‪-‬ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺤﺤﺔ ﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻭﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠﺴﻠﻲ ﻟﻸﺧﻄﺎﺀ )‪ .(HAC‬ﻭﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ‪ SARG‬ﺻﻼﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻛﺜﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺗﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻗﻠﻠﺖ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻮﺩ‪‬ﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2-IV‬ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ‬
‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻣﻌﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﺗﺮﺍﻭﺣﺖ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﻭﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻘﺺ ﰲ ﺃﻏﻠﺒﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻘﻠﻞ‬
‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ )‪ ،(GE‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ )‪ ،(PS‬ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺎﺀﻟﺔ )‪ (VA‬ﻣﻦ ﺗﺬﺑﺬﺏ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﳓﻮ ﺩﻭﻝ‬
‫‪ MENA‬ﰲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﻣﻌﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﻣﺎﻋﺪﺍ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪ .‬ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﻭﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻮﻋﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻴﺎﰊ‬
‫ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﳉﺬﺏ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‪ .‬ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻄﺮﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﺴﺎﺩ )‪ ،(CC‬ﺳﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻥ‬
‫)‪ ،(RL‬ﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻬﺎ )‪ (RQ‬ﺁﺛﺎﺭﺍ ﻏﲑ ﻣﻘﻠﻠﺔ ﻟﺘﺬﺑﺬﺏ ﺗﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻭﺑﺪﻻﻟﺔ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻷﺧﲑ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ‬
‫ﻳﺜﲑ ﺗﺴﺎﺅﻻﺕ ﺣﻮﻝ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﻭﻣﻜﺎﻓﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺴﺎﺩ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﻷﺟﺎﻧﺐ ‪ ...‬ﺗﺒﻌﺎ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺇﻥ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﺗﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﲑ ﰲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻲ ﻓﻴﻤﺘﺎﺯ ﺑﺘﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﳌﻘﺺ ﻭﲟﻌﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﲟﺎ ﻳﺆﻛﺪ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻼﱐ ﻭﺻﻌﻮﺑﺔ ﺗﻐﻴﲑ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﻬﻤﺎ ﺗﻐﲑ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻧﻈﺮﺍ ﻟﺼﻔﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﲰﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻷﻏﻠﺐ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﲑﺓ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﻼﺣﻈﺔ ﻧﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ )ﻟﻮﻏﺎﺭﻳﺘﻢ ﻧﺼﻴﺐ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺍﳋﺎﻡ( ﻭﻗﻮﺓ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺮﻱ )ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺠﻠﲔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻮﻱ(‪ .‬ﰲ ﺣﲔ ﺗﺸﲑ ﻣﻌﻠﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺐ ﲟﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﳕﻮ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻃﻴﻠﺔ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺣﺴﺐ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ )‪ ( World Bank, 2013‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﺍﹰ ﻗﻮﻳﺎﹰ ﻭﺳﻠﺒﻴﺎﹰ ﻟﻼﺿﻄﺮﺍﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﳎﻤﻞ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﰲ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ‪ ،MENA‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻋﻄﻠﺖ ﺍﻟﺼﺪﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺷﻬﺪﺗﻪ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﰲ ﺃﻋﻘﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ .2008‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﻫﺬﺍ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﺗﺒﲔ ﺃﻧﻪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺪ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻟﻔﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻥ ﺍﳌﺎﺿﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﰲ ﺃﻏﻠﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﰲ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﰲ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺣﺼﻠﺖ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﺭﺩﺓ ﻟﻠﻨﻔﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ 60‬ﰲ ﺍﳌﺎﺋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﰲ ﺗﺴﻌﻴﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻥ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺎﺿﻲ‪ ،‬ﺫﻫﺐ ‪ 70‬ﰲ ﺍﳌﺎﺋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭﺓ ﻟﻪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺪ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻟﻔﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻇﻞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺎﹰ ﰲ‬
‫ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻄﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻮﻟﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﻇﺎﺋﻒ ﻭﺗﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪- 100 -‬‬

 ‫‪EISSN: 2602-5183 * PISSN: 1033-2437‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺩ‪ ،06 :‬ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‪ ،(2020) 01:‬ﺹ‪.‬ﺹ‪104- 95 .‬‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻭﻭﺟﺪ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻨ ﻔﻄﻴﺔ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺣﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺇﺯﺍﺀ ﺍﻧﻌﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺟﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ .‬ﺇﺫﺍﹰ‪ ،‬ﺗﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﺍﻻﺿﻄﺮﺍﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻔﺎﻗﻢ ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﺗﺮﺩﻱ‬
‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻂ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -V‬ﺍﳋﻼﺻﺔ‬
‫ﻗﻤﻨﺎ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻮﺭﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﳌﻘﺺ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﻭﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ‪MENA‬‬
‫ﻃﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 2017-1996‬ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺑﺎﻧﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻲ ﻭﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ‪ GMM‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﻭﺑﲔ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﻗﺎﺕ ‪.GMM‬‬
‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﻣﻦ ﻃﺮﻑ )‪ Mijiyawa (2015‬ﻭﺍﳌﺪﻋﻢ ﺑﺎﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺎﺑﻄﺔ ﻇﻬﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﳑﺜﻠﺔ ﰲ‬
‫‪ GE, PS, VA‬ﺍﻣﺘﺎﺯﺕ ﺑﺎﳌﻌﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﳌﻘﻠﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ‪ ،‬ﻋﻜﺲ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪CC, RL,‬‬
‫‪ RQ‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﱂ ﺗﻜﻦ ﻣﻌﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﻭﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻌﺎﳌﻬﺎ ﺧﺎﻟﻔﺖ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺇﺫﻥ ﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ‪ FDI‬ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﻀﻴﻔﺔ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻮﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻷﻣﲏ‪ ،‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﺎ ﺃﻛﺪﺗﻪ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻈﻬﻮﺭ ﺑﺆﺭ ﺗﻮﺗﺮ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺣﺮﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺍﻕ ﺳﻨﺔ ‪ 2003‬ﻭﲟﺎ ﲰﻲ ﺛﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺳﻨﺔ‬
‫‪.2011‬‬
‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﻼﺹ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﺎ ﺗﻠﻌﺐ ﺩﻭﺭﺍ ﺣﺴﺎﺳﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺃﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ‬
‫‪ MENA‬ﻻﺳﻴﻤﺎ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﺘﻮﺻﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﺇﻳﻼﺀ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺧﺎﺹ ﺑﺈﺻﻼﺡ ﺃﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﺃﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﻠﻲ ﺍﻻﻣﺘﻴﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﻓﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﻭﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﻟﻼﺑﺘﻜﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻨﺒﻐﻲ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺼﻠﺢ ﺃﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍﳌﻜﹾﻠ‪‬ﻔﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻔﺮﻃﺔ ﻭﺃﻥ ﲢﺴﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‪ .‬ﻭﺳﻴﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻡ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﺍﺣﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﻥ‬
‫ﲟﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻃﻨﲔ ﻭﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﻷﺟﺎﻧﺐ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﻣﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕ ﻟﺘﺸﻜﻴﻞ ﺩﺍﺋﺮﺓ‬
‫ﲪﻴﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﺧﺎﺀ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻣﻼﺣﻖ‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ ﻳﺒﲔ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﳌﻘﺺ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﻭﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ‪MENA‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ‪ :‬ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ‬

‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪ (1‬ﻳﺒﲔ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻔﺴﺮﺓ‬
‫‪CC‬‬ ‫‪GE‬‬ ‫‪PS‬‬ ‫‪RL‬‬ ‫‪RQ‬‬ ‫‪VA‬‬ ‫‪FTS‬‬ ‫‪GFCF‬‬ ‫‪LGDP‬‬ ‫‪NRR‬‬ ‫‪SES‬‬
‫‪CC‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬
‫‪GE‬‬ ‫‪0.90‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬
‫‪PS‬‬ ‫‪0.72‬‬ ‫‪0.68‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬
‫‪RL‬‬ ‫‪0.90‬‬ ‫‪0.89‬‬ ‫‪0.75‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬
‫‪RQ‬‬ ‫‪0.84‬‬ ‫‪0.89‬‬ ‫‪0.58‬‬ ‫‪0.88‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬

‫‪- 101 -‬‬

‫____________‬
‫ﺍﺒﺭﺍﻫﻴﻡ ﺨﻭﻴﻠﺩ & ﻭﻟﻴﺩ ﺼﺎﺤﺏ‪ ،‬ﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﻭﻜﻤﺔ ﻭﺃﺜﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﻤﻥ ﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ‪) ،MENA‬ﺹ‪.‬ﺹ‪(104-95.‬‬

‫‪VA‬‬ ‫‪0.43‬‬ ‫‪0.49‬‬ ‫‪0.18‬‬ ‫‪0.46‬‬ ‫‪0.54‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬

‫‪FTS‬‬ ‫‪0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.36‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬ ‫‪0.27‬‬ ‫‪0.23‬‬ ‫‪0.07‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬
‫‪GFCF‬‬ ‫‪-0.20‬‬ ‫‪-0.18‬‬ ‫‪-0.10‬‬ ‫‪-0.21‬‬ ‫‪-0.23‬‬ ‫‪0.08‬‬ ‫‪-0.07‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬
‫‪LGDP‬‬ ‫‪0.55‬‬ ‫‪0.52‬‬ ‫‪0.34‬‬ ‫‪0.51‬‬ ‫‪0.49‬‬ ‫‪0.09‬‬ ‫‪0.57‬‬ ‫‪-0.11‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬
‫‪NRR‬‬ ‫‪-0.24‬‬ ‫‪-0.46‬‬ ‫‪-0.02‬‬ ‫‪-0.32‬‬ ‫‪-0.40‬‬ ‫‪-0.54‬‬ ‫‪-0.11‬‬ ‫‪0.06‬‬ ‫‪0.22‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬
‫‪SES‬‬ ‫‪0.46‬‬ ‫‪0.46‬‬ ‫‪0.22‬‬ ‫‪0.48‬‬ ‫‪0.36‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0.47‬‬ ‫‪-0.26‬‬ ‫‪0.67‬‬ ‫‪-0.08‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪ (2‬ﻳﺒﲔ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻲ )‪ VFDI(-1‬ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺑﻄﺮﻕ ﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﻗﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ‬
‫‪0.900‬‬ ‫‪-0.011827‬‬ ‫‪POLS‬‬
‫‪0.020‬‬ ‫‪-0.254503‬‬ ‫‪FE‬‬
‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪-0.317212‬‬ ‫‪GMM-Diff‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪ (3‬ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ‪GMM-First Differneces‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ‬
‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪-0.317212‬‬ ‫)‪VFDI(-1‬‬
‫‪0.263‬‬ ‫‪-0.000139‬‬ ‫‪CC‬‬
‫‪0.923‬‬ ‫‪-8.79E-06‬‬ ‫‪GE‬‬
‫‪0.984‬‬ ‫‪6.70E-07‬‬ ‫‪PS‬‬
‫‪0.235‬‬ ‫‪-0.000134‬‬ ‫‪RL‬‬
‫‪0.019‬‬ ‫‪0.000200‬‬ ‫‪RQ‬‬
‫‪0.091‬‬ ‫‪5.76E-05‬‬ ‫‪VA‬‬
‫‪0.256‬‬ ‫‪-6.37E-05‬‬ ‫‪LGDP‬‬
‫‪0.093‬‬ ‫‪0.000324‬‬ ‫‪GFCF‬‬
‫‪0.460‬‬ ‫‪1.38E-06‬‬ ‫‪SES‬‬
‫‪0.992‬‬ ‫‪-3.36E-08‬‬ ‫‪FTS‬‬
‫‪0.079‬‬ ‫‪4.32E-06‬‬ ‫‪NRR‬‬
‫‪17‬‬ ‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬
‫‪0.593‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ ‪J‬‬
‫‪0.012‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟـ )‪AR(1‬‬
‫‪0.034‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟـ )‪AR(2‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪ (4‬ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ‪GMM-System‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ‬
‫‪0.0200‬‬ ‫‪0.000721‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬
‫‪0.0321‬‬ ‫‪-0.359797‬‬ ‫)‪VFDI(-1‬‬
‫‪0.8281‬‬ ‫‪1.77E-05‬‬ ‫‪CC‬‬
‫‪0.1612‬‬ ‫‪-0.000141‬‬ ‫‪GE‬‬
‫‪0.0368‬‬ ‫‪-7.14E-05‬‬ ‫‪PS‬‬
‫‪0.2317‬‬ ‫‪0.000113‬‬ ‫‪RL‬‬
‫‪0.0079‬‬ ‫‪0.000256‬‬ ‫‪RQ‬‬
‫‪0.0473‬‬ ‫‪-8.69E-05‬‬ ‫‪VA‬‬
‫‪0.0541‬‬ ‫‪-8.94E-05‬‬ ‫‪LGDP‬‬
‫‪0.0110‬‬ ‫‪0.000671‬‬ ‫‪GFCF‬‬

‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪- 102 -‬‬

 EISSN: 2602-5183 * PISSN: 1033-2437 104- 95 .‫ﺹ‬.‫ ﺹ‬،(2020) 01:‫ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬،06 :‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺩ‬ ‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬

0.4090 -1.57E-06 SES

0.2588 2.92E-06 FTS
0.3505 1.95E-06 NRR
17 ‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬
0.0521 J ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ‬
0.959 Portmanteau ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ‬: ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ‬

‫ ﺍﻹﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺮﺍﺟﻊ‬-

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‫ ﳎﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ‬،‫ ﺍﳊﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﰲ ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﻐﺮﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﻧﻞ‬.(2017) ‫ ﻋﺪﻭﻛﺔ ﳋﻀﺮ‬،‫ ﺳﺮﺩﻭﻙ ﺑﻠﺤﻮﻝ‬.8
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- 103 -
‫____________‬
‫ﺍﺒﺭﺍﻫﻴﻡ ﺨﻭﻴﻠﺩ & ﻭﻟﻴﺩ ﺼﺎﺤﺏ‪ ،‬ﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﻭﻜﻤﺔ ﻭﺃﺜﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﻤﻥ ﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ‪) ،MENA‬ﺹ‪.‬ﺹ‪(104-95.‬‬

‫‪APA‬‬
‫إﺑﺮا ﻴﻢ ﺧﻮ ﻠﺪ‪ ،‬وﻟﻴﺪ ﺻﺎﺣﺐ )‪ ،(2020‬ﺟﻮدة ﻣﺆﺷﺮات ا ﻮﻛﻤﺔ وأﺛﺮ ﺎ اﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎت ﺻﺎ ﺳ ﺜﻤﺎر ﺟﻨ اﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ دول ‪MENA‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﻔ ة ‪ : 2017-1996‬ﻣﻘﺎر ﺔ ﻧﻤﻮذج ﺑﺎﻧﻞ اﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴ ﻲ‪ ،‬ﻣﺠﻠﺔ اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت ﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ اﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬اﳌﺠﻠﺪ ‪) 06‬اﻟﻌﺪد ‪ ،(01‬ا ﺰاﺋﺮ ‪ :‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﻗﺎﺻﺪي‬
‫ﻣﺮ ﺎح ورﻗﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ص‪.‬ص‪.104-95.‬‬

‫ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻔﺎﻅ ﲝﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻟﻴﻒ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﳉﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﻮﺭﺓ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍ‪‬ﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﻟﻔﲔ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﲔ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟـ ﺭﺧﺼﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻉ ﺍﻹﺑﺪﺍﻋﻲ ﻧ‪‬ﺴﺐ‬
‫ﺍﳌﹸﺼﻨ‪‬ﻒ ‪ -‬ﻏﲑ ﲡﺎﺭﻱ ‪ -‬ﻣﻨﻊ ﺍﻻﺷﺘﻘﺎﻕ ‪ 4.0‬ﺩﻭﱄ )‪.(CC BY-NC 4.0‬‬
‫ﳎﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﻣﺮﺧﺼﺔ ﲟﻮﺟﺐ ﺭﺧﺼﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻉ ﺍﻹﺑﺪﺍﻋﻲ ﻧ‪‬ﺴﺐ ﺍﳌﹸﺼﻨ‪‬ﻒ ‪ -‬ﻏﲑ ﲡﺎﺭﻱ ‪ -‬ﻣﻨﻊ ﺍﻻﺷﺘﻘﺎﻕ ‪ 4.0‬ﺩﻭﱄ‬
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‫ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪- 104 -‬‬