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Chapter 7: Dealing with Foreign Exchange
Chapter 7
Dealing with Foreign Exchange
Learning Objectives
After studying this chapter, students will be able to accomplish the following objectives:
1. List the factors that determine foreign exchange rates.
2. Articulate and explain the steps in the evolution of the international monetary
system.
3. Identify strategic responses firms can take to deal with foreign exchange
movements.
4. Identify three things you need to know about currency when doing business
internationally.
Chapter Overview
Chapter 7, Dealing with Foreign Exchange, begins by explaining why the value of
currencies are so important in the global economy. The chapter defines appreciation and
depreciation, and it then turns to discuss the factors that determine foreign exchange
rates, including relative price differences, purchasing power parity, interest rates, money
supply, productivity, balance of payments, exchange rate policies, and investor
psychology. Many important concepts are covered in these sections, including balance of
payments, floating and fixed exchange rate policies, and the bandwagon effect. The
chapter’s second section explores the evolution of the international monetary system
from the gold standard of 1870 to 1914, to the Bretton Woods system of 1944 to 1973, to
the post-Bretton Woods system of 1973 to the present. One of the most enduring legacies
of the Bretton Woods system—the International Monetary Fund is then discussed.
Finally, the chapter looks at strategic monetary responses employed by financial and
nonfinancial companies alike.
While critics in an influential Economist (2015) report argue that the dominance of the
dollar in the face of fading U.S. economic supremacy is “unsustainable,” its would-be
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Chapter 7: Dealing with Foreign Exchange
contenders are in a worse shape. The newest darling, the yuan, is on the lips of many
bankers from Hong Kong to London. But it is an underachiever.
As early as 1872, the U.S. economy became larger than Britain’s. But it took 70 years
(including two World Wars) for the dollar to displace the pound as the reigning
international currency. So, what are the two lessons from history? First, a country that
does not grow its economy cannot continue to provide adequate liquidity to the global
economy indefinitely. Second, the process will take a very long time.
At present, thanks to the economic weaknesses in the rest of the world and the strengths
of the U.S. economy, the dollar recently enjoyed the rise to a 14-year high against a
basket of six major currencies. In summary, a strong dollar was bad for U.S. growth,
potentially threatening 400,000 jobs. The all-naughty dollar might wash away a lot of
President Donald Trump’s job-creation efforts.
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Chapter 7: Dealing with Foreign Exchange
Chapter Outline
1. Key Concepts
A foreign exchange rate is the price of one currency in terms of another. This section
identifies six factors that determine foreign exchange rates: (1) basic supply and
demand, (2) relative price differences and purchasing power parity, (3) interest rates
and money supply, (4) productivity and balance of payments, (5) exchange rate
policies, and (6) investor psychology.
2. Key Terms
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Chapter 7: Dealing with Foreign Exchange
3. Discussion Exercise
While individuals often attribute movements in the exchange rate to purely economic
reasons, investor psychology can produce dramatic swings as well. To illustrate this
point, lead the students through a game. The game begins with the instructor handing
out different amounts of money in various currencies (these can be copied or could
even be pieces of paper with a denomination written on it) to the students. The
instructor should then present a table of the exchange rates between the various
currencies, explaining that the rates will change periodically. Then, invite the
students to sell the currencies that they have and to buy others. The objective of this
game is to end up with the most money. At random points in the game, the instructor
may make changes to the exchange rate table, sometimes small and at other times
dramatic. Given these changes, some students may choose to trade as much as
possible to take advantage of the exchange rate changes, while other students may
choose to hang on to what they have to avoid being hurt by potential changes in the
future.
At the game’s conclusion, have students consider and discuss how changes to the
exchange rate affected their attitude toward the currencies that they held, and the
currencies that they wanted. How does the psychological factor bring about changes
to the supply and demand of currencies? How did their mindset influence the actions
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Chapter 7: Dealing with Foreign Exchange
LO2: Articulate and explain the steps in the evolution of the international monetary
system.
1. Key Concepts
The history of the international monetary system (IMF) is divided into three eras: the
gold standard, the Bretton Woods system, and the post-Bretton Woods system. The
IMF can be viewed as a lender of last resort to help member countries out of
financial difficulty.
2. Key Terms
LO3: Identify strategic responses firms can take to deal with foreign exchange
movements.
1. Key Concepts
One of the leading strategic goals for financial companies is to profit from the
foreign exchange market. The foreign exchange market is where individuals, firms,
governments, and banks buy and sell currencies of other countries. There are three
primary types of foreign exchange transactions: spot transactions, forward
transactions, and swaps. How do nonfinancial companies cope with the potential
losses they may incur due to fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, broadly
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Chapter 7: Dealing with Foreign Exchange
known as currency risks? There are three primary strategies: (1) invoicing in their
own currencies, (2) currency hedging (as discussed above), and (3) strategic hedging.
2. Key Terms
3. Discussion Exercise
Non-financial companies that deal with exchange rates have two strategic choices to
safeguard against currency risks: currency hedging and strategic hedging. The former
involves the use of forward transactions, which necessitates some expectations or
forecasts of future rates. Strategic hedging, meanwhile, entails the spreading out of a
firm’s activities in a number of different currency zones in order to offset losses in
any one currency zone. While currency hedging can largely be performed by a small
group of experts, strategic hedging requires communication across various divisions,
including marketing, sourcing, production, and finance.
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Chapter 7: Dealing with Foreign Exchange
LO4: Identify three things you need to know about currency when doing business
internationally.
1. Key Concepts
First, a successful manager must understand that fostering foreign exchange literacy
is a must. Second, risk analysis of any country must include an analysis of its
currency risks. Third, a currency risk management strategy is necessary—via
invoicing in one’s own currency, currency hedging, or strategic hedging.
1. Key Concepts
Critics argue that the IMF’s lending may facilitate moral hazard, which means
recklessness when people and organizations (including governments) do not have to
face the full consequences of their actions. A second criticism centers on the IMF’s
lack of accountability. A third and perhaps most challenging criticism is that the
IMF’s “one-size-fits-all” strategy—otherwise known as the “bitter medicine”—may
be inappropriate. However, the momentum of the criticisms, the severity of the
global crisis, and the desire to better serve the international community have
facilitated a series of IMF reforms since 2009. The IMF 2.0 has become three times
bigger—leaders in the G20 Summit in London in 2009 agreed to enhance the IMF’s
funding from $250 billion to $750 billion.
In July 2014 at the sixth BRICS summit in Fortaleza, Brazil, BRICS countries—
consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—launched a New
Development Bank (NDB) as an alternative to the IMF. In addition, in 2015, China
took the lead to launch a new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) with 50
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Chapter 7: Dealing with Foreign Exchange
founding member countries. Not only did all other BRICS countries sign up, most
Asian developing countries also joined. How the NDB and the AIIB can coordinate
the internal interests among diverse members and manage tricky external
relationships with the IMF, the World Bank, and the United States remains to be
seen.
Danilo Bellini, owner and CEO of Bellini do Brasil, and his export manager, Carlo di
Toni both set on complaining about the political and economic situation. After more than
a decade of high inflation, low growth, and debt default, the Brazilian government
introduced a new currency, the real (R$), in 1994. José Ignácio Lula da Silva’s
government gained the confidence of the international financial markets.
During the 2003 crisis, the Central Bank’s reference nominal interest rates topped 26%.
Even at the beginning of 2017, nominal interest rates were around 13% and real interest
rates close to 8%, one of the highest worldwide. After paying back its last IMF loan in
2005, the country obtained the investment grade rating in 2008. Billions of U.S. dollars
poured into the country since then. Things markedly changed since 2013 when the
commodity price boom came to an end. Brazil, being the third largest iron ore producer
worldwide after China and Australia, seriously suffered from the collapse of the iron ore
price thanks to the Chinese slowdown.
After Rousseff was reelected in October 2014 by a narrow margin, she quickly fell into
disgrace with approval ratings falling to as low as 13% in 2016. In parallel, Brazilian
prosecutors and judges uncovered a hitherto unseen corruption scheme, which dragged
the national oil company Petrobras and major construction companies, such as
Odebrecht, Camargo Correa, and Andrade Gutierrez, into the abyss.
As if the economic and political crisis and the ensuing foreign exchange pressures were
not enough, other problems, colloquially summarized as “Custo Brasil” (“Brazil cost”),
gave Carlo and Danilo headaches. The government increased minimum wages from R$
200 in 2002 to R$ 880 in 2016. Worse, taxes levied on interstate business transactions
within Brazil make it often cheaper to import than to buy from suppliers located in
another state.
Bellini do Brasil was founded by descendants of Italian immigrants who populated the
Gaucho Highlands region in South Brazil in the second half of the 19th century. Bellini
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Chapter 7: Dealing with Foreign Exchange
recognized that the more lucrative export markets would only be reachable by focusing
on upscale furniture.
However, things changed unexpectedly. Not only did the commodity price boom come to
an end, but Brazil also suffered from a deep domestic political and economic crisis,
which led to one of the worst economic performances among emerging economies.
Although exports would generally benefit from currency devaluations, noted Carlo,
recent data from the Brazilian furniture industry showed rather a mixed picture (Exhibit
7.8). Firmly believing that there must be a way to save their company, Danilo and Carlo
discussed possible coping strategies to get out of this trap.
Video Case
1. Sir Peter Middleton quoted an instructor who wanted everyone to be above average.
What is the problem with everyone being above average? Middleton then indicated
that actually everyone was above average except for one person. How was that
possible?
A “mean average” involves adding up the scores of all the students and dividing by
the number of students. Thus, it would be impossible for everyone to do better than
everyone. However, if one person did lower than all the rest, that person brings
down the average and raises the average for the others.
2. Middleton argues that almost everything you do is affected by numbers. Show how
numbers are related to each major heading of this chapter.
Students’ answers may vary. The key component of the answer is the thought put
into the explanation of foreign exchange rates and strategic responses to foreign
exchange movements.
Those who have had an accounting class will show how valuation of inventories
used during a period of time or the extent to which an expenditure is treated as an
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Chapter 7: Dealing with Foreign Exchange
expense or investment will affect the balance sheet and income statement. Those
who focus on the currency market may point out that as currencies change in value
to each other, the prices of goods from a given country will be affected. This affects
sales and profits.
4. Middleton recommended that one ask how a number would look if things were
different. One way to do that is to not simply compare performance in Period B to
Period A but to compare actual performance in Period B to what was forecast for
Period B. For example, suppose your firm’s exports drop by 10%, which would
appear to be bad. How might that be good?
If exports might otherwise have dropped by 50% but a brilliant strategy kept the
drop to only 10% that would be good.
The increase in value would make exports more expensive to overseas buyers and
thus hurt the sales of some firms.
1. Suppose that one U.S. dollar equals 0.7778 euro in New York and one dollar equals
0.7775 euro in Paris. How can foreign exchange traders in New York and Paris
profit from these exchange rates?
Arbitrageurs profit by buying low in one market and selling high in another.
However, as they dump more of a currency into a higher priced market, they are
increasing the supply of that currency in that market. As the supply increases
relative to the demand, the price will go down until it reaches a level in which no
arbitrage profits can be obtained because the value of the currency in both markets
is the same.
2. Should China revalue the yuan against the dollar? If so, what impact might this
have on: (1) U.S. balance of payments, (2) Chinese balance of payments, (3)
relative competitiveness of Mexico and Thailand, (4) firms such as Walmart, and
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Chapter 7: Dealing with Foreign Exchange
Students’ answers will vary. If China revalues the yuan against the dollar, the U.S.
balance of payments would improve and the Chinese balance of payments would
decline. The relative competitiveness of any country with its currency tied to the
dollar is also likely to improve. Chinese retail consumers would gain profit, while
Walmart and U.S. consumers would lose.
Review Questions
1. What are the five major factors that influence foreign exchange rates?
The basic dynamic of supply and demand for a currency is affected by the
following five factors: (1) relative price differences (the impact of purchasing
power parity), (2) interest rates and monetary supply (interest rates of a country will
affect the demand for a currency, and monetary policies of a country will affect the
supply of a currency), (3) productivity and the balance of payments (productivity
affects the cost of a country’s goods and that cost will impact exports, which in turn
affects the balance of payments), (4) exchange rate policies (a currency which can
be freely exchanged will be more desirable than one which cannot), and (5)
investor psychology (positive or negative expectations will affect the extent to
which a currency is desirable).
2. What are the differences between a floating exchange rate policy and a fixed
exchange rate policy?
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Chapter 7: Dealing with Foreign Exchange
5. Why is the strength of the U.S. dollar important to the rest of the world?
The rest of the world holds so many U.S. dollars that most countries fear the capital
loss they would suffer if the dollar fell too deep. Additionally, many countries
prefer to keep the value of their currencies down to promote exports.
6. How would you describe the theory of purchasing power parity (PPP)?
Purchasing power parity is a theory that suggests that in the absence of trade
barriers (such as tariffs), the price for identical products sold in different countries
must be the same.
7. What is the relationship between a country’s current account balance and its
currency?
A country experiencing a current account surplus will see its currency appreciate.
Conversely, a country experiencing a current account deficit will see its currency
depreciate.
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Chapter 7: Dealing with Foreign Exchange
9. Why did the gold standard evolve to the Bretton Woods system? Then, why did the
Bretton Woods system evolve to the present post-Bretton Woods system?
10. Name and describe three ways nonfinancial companies can cope with currency
risks.
The three primary strategies for coping with currency risks are given below.
• By invoicing in their own currency, firms can find some protection from
unfavorable foreign exchange movements.
• Currency hedging is a transaction that protects traders and investors from
exposure to the fluctuations of the spot rate.
• Strategic hedging involves spreading out activities in a number of countries in
different currency zones to offset any currency losses in one region through
gains in other regions.
11. Which do you think is a better policy to adopt: a floating exchange rate or a fixed
rate?
This is a question in which the student’s thought process and the ability to clearly
articulate are more important than the answer.
12. Devise your own example of a way a firm might engage in currency hedging.
Currency hedging involves a transaction that protects traders and investors from
exposure to the fluctuations of the spot rate. The example given by the student is
not as important as the extent to which the student demonstrates thought in
providing the answer.
First, foreign exchange literacy must be fostered. Second, a risk analysis of any
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Chapter 7: Dealing with Foreign Exchange
country must include its currency risks. Finally, a country’s high currency risks do
not necessarily suggest that the country needs to be totally avoided. Instead, it calls
for a prudent currency risk management strategy via currency hedging, strategic
hedging, or both.
14. What skills might a manager need to devise strategies for managing currency risk?
To devise strategies for managing currency risk, managers need to develop useful
skills that include currency hedging, strategic hedging, or both.
© 2018 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.