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AEROSPACE TECHNOLOGY

WEEK1

RAUL C. LLAMAS‐SANDIN
10 FEB 2012

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AEROSPACE TECHNOLOGY

Week 1. Part I

‐ Course objectives

‐ Module description

‐ Assignments

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CONTENTS, OBJECTIVES AND COURSE STRUCTURE

OBJECTIVES OF THE COURSE


1. Understand the basic Principles of Flight
2. Know the different components and systems of aerospace vehicles
and their function
3. Learn how to perform basic calculations of aerodynamic and
propulsion forces and become familiar with their orders of magnitude
4. Design a simple glider airplane using real aerodynamic analysis tools
5. Know the current status of the aerospace industry and the trends for
the future
6. Think about the future of air transport and create your first
commercial aircraft concept, working as part of a design team

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CONTENTS, OBJECTIVES AND COURSE STRUCTURE

COURSE STRUCTURE: SIX MODULES:


1. Energy and momentum. Introduction to Propulsion
2. Physics of Flight I: Atmosphere and basic Aerodynamics
3. Aircraft architecture: Structures and Systems
4. Physics of Flight II: Flight Mechanics and Control
5. Air transport, Airports and Environmental Impact
6. Space systems

ASSIGNMENTS:
‐ Group Exercise #1: Design a civil transport aircraft concept for 2040.
‐ Group Exercise #2: The winner concept of Exercise #1 will become the
specification for the second group design exercise
‐ Individual work: Design a glider airplane using XFLR5
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COURSE STRUCTURE
Module 1: Energy and Propulsion

Review of Mechanics
(Energy and Momentum)
Momentum
Generation of Thrust
Thermal and propulsive
efficiency
Rocket engines
Jet engines
Piston engines
Future of propulsion

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COURSE STRUCTURE
Module 2: Physics of Flight I: Atmosphere and basic aerodynamics

Atmosphere; composition and equations


Aerostatics; buoyancy and balloons
Basic Fluid mechanics
Basic aerodynamics: Lift, Drag, airfoils
Transonic and Supersonic flight
Aerodynamic design and test methods

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COURSE STRUCTURE
Module 3: Aircraft architecture: Structures and systems

Types of aircraft
Structures and materials
Landing gear, cabin and cargo
Structural design methods
Empennage
Final assembly Rear
Fuselage
Center
Fuselage

Tests and Certification


Doors
Powerplant

Nose Pylon
Fuselage Wing
Landing
Gear

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COURSE STRUCTURE
Module 4: Physics of Flight II: Flight mechanics and control
Stability and control
Flight controls
Auto‐pilot, augmented stability, control laws
Helicopters
Flight simulators
Aircraft instruments
Aircraft systems: Electric, hydraulic...

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COURSE STRUCTURE
Module 5: Air transport, Airports and Environmenal Impact

Air transport, trends and forecasts


Airports, ground equipment
Navigational aids
Environmental impact of aviation
Aircraft accidents and human factors

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COURSE STRUCTURE
Module 6: Space systems
http://www.gizmag.com/paper‐plane‐images‐space/16913/

Rockets
Satellites and space vehicles
Space environment
Orbits and missions
Propulsion and control of satellites
Ground stations

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COURSE STRUCTURE
Assignments
Group assignments:
‐ Group Exercise #1: “Propose a civil transport aircraft concept for 2040”
‐ Group Exercise #2: “Develop the best design of exercise #1 and
compete against your classmates”

Individual assignment: “Design a glider airplane using XFLR5”


‐ Configure a small glider to obtain good flight performance
‐ You can start now: http://www.xflr5.com/xflr5.htm

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COURSE EVALUATION and ACADEMIC RESOURCES

Your final mark will be based on the combined results of;


ASSIGNMENTS
Æ 2 Group Assignments
Æ 1 Individual Assignment
HOMEWORK
Æ 9 Practical Exercises to be solved individually

COURSE MATERIAL:
‐ All the neccessary material will be provided to you in Moodle
Recommended reading: NASA SP‐367 “Introduction to the Aerodynamics of Flight”
http://e‐stud.vgtu.lt/users/files/dest/1622/nasa‐75‐sp367.pdf

ACADEMIC INTEGRITY: Do your own work ‐ now is a good time to start and nobody will
do it for you when you work in industry (unless you are very, very clever, which may
be the case, but is rather unethical anyway...)

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AEROSPACE TECHNOLOGY
Week 1. Part II

‐ The Aircraft Design process

‐ Great aircraft designers

‐ “Multidisciplinarity”

‐ State of the industry


‐ Commercial
‐ Military
‐ General aviation
‐ Space

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MULTIDISCIPLINARY DESIGN?
This is closer to reality than you think.

A completed airplane in many


way is a compromise of the
knowledge, experience and
desires of the many engineers
that make up the various design
Fuselage Group Wing Group and production groups of an Aerodynamics Group Weights Group
airplane company.

It is only being human to


understand why the engineers
of the various groups feel
that their part in the design of
an airplane is of greater
Controls Group Empennage Group importance and that the Electrical Group Loft Group
headaches in design are due
to the requirements of the
other less important groups.

This cartoon « Dream


Airplanes » by Mr. C. W. Miller,
design engineer, indicates what
might happen if each design or
Hydraulics Group Equipment Group production group were allowed Stress Group Production
to take itself too seriously. engineer Group

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Service Group Power plant Group Composite Group
MULTIDISCIPLINARY DESIGN?
...so you thought it was a joke...

Wing Group
Fuselage Group Aerodynamics Group

Empennage Group Weights Group


Controls Group

Equipment Group Stress Group


Production
This one engineer Group

does not
exist in
reality!
Service Group Power plant Group Composite Group
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INTRODUCTION TO AIRCRAFT DESIGN
Great aircraft designers : Orville and Wilbur Wright, “Flyer I”, first (sucessful) powered flight
In 1878 their father brought home a toy "helicopter" for his two younger sons.
Wilbur and Orville played with it until it broke, and then built their own. In later
years, they pointed to their experience with the toy as the initial spark of their
interest in flying
Although not the first to build and fly experimental aircraft, the Wright
brothers were the first to invent aircraft controls that made fixed‐wing powered
flight possible.
They gained the mechanical skills essential for their success by working for
years in their shop with printing presses, bicycles, motors, and other machinery.

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INTRODUCTION TO AIRCRAFT DESIGN
Great aircraft designers: Kelly Johnson (P‐80, U‐2, SR‐71...)

Johnson was 13 years old when he won a prize for his


first aircraft design
After assignments as flight test engineer, stress
analyst, aerodynamicist, and weight engineer, he
became chief research engineer in 1938. In 1952, he
was appointed chief engineer of Lockheed's Burbank,
California, plant. In 1956 he became Vice President of
Research and Development.
In the late 1930s, Johnson helped lead the team that
developed the P‐38 Lightning. Eventually, almost
10,000 of these fighters were built.
In 1943, responding to United States Army Air Forces'
concerns about Germany's development of high
performance jet fighters, Johnson proposed to develop
a jet airplane in six months. The result, the P‐80
Shooting Star, was completed on time and became
America's first operational jet fighter.
Johnson also led the development of the SR‐71
Blackbird family of aircraft. (wikipedia)
Even Johnson got it wrong: left “Probable future
Book: Rich, Ben, and Leo Janos, 1996. ”Skunk Works”. types of fighters” (paper written by him in 1941).
Little, Brown & Company
Right, the P80, which he designed 2 years later
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Book: “747: Creating the World's First Jumbo Jet and
INTRODUCTION TO AIRCRAFT DESIGN Other Adventures from a Life in Aviation”,

Great aircraft designers : Joe Sutter (747)


“I lived on a hill right over here called Beacon
Hill. And when I was a kid, there was time to kill
sometimes and get on a bike and go down to the
old Boeing Field and watch what was going on.
The early airplanes were bi‐planes. And then the
247 came along and that was a big change in
airplane design and I saw all of that. I also saw
one of the B‐17's land with its brakes on and go
on its nose. “
“Well, as soon as I came to Boeing, I realized
that I was interested in airplanes carrying people.
I wasn't really interested in military airplanes.“
“If the airplane looks and feels right, it probably
is right. When you look at the Boeing airplanes,
they all look like they've got adequate vertical
tails and beautiful wings, and I think that helps
make it a good airplane. But anyhow I saw all this
as a youngster and I was interested in engineering
and took a lot of math and physics courses in high
school. I went out to the University of
Washington and took aeronautical engineering
and I always felt more interested in designing
airplanes than flying them. “

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INTRODUCTION TO AIRCRAFT DESIGN Book: “Burt Rutan: Reinventing the Airplane”

Great aircraft designers : Burt Rutan: Voyager, Spaceship I and II....


The Rutans' father, a dentist, had a
pilot's license and owned a small plane.
Both Rutan and his brother were
fascinated by air travel as youngsters.
Dick was five years older than Burt and
sometimes refused to let him play with
his collection of model aircraft. In
response, Burt began building his own.
His first solo flight piloting an airplane
was in an Aeronca Champ in 1959, when
he was sixteen.
In 1965 he graduated third in his class
from the California Polytechnic State
University (Cal Poly‐SLO) with a BS
degree in aeronautical engineering.
"I don't care about taking the risk that
something won't succeed. That's the big
difference between me and the
engineers who work in aerospace. Or the
managers of the engineers who work in
aerospace. They're absolutely frightened Model 76 Voyager: First aircraft to circumnavigate Model 339 SpaceShipTwo (SS2) is a suborbital
of failure." the Earth non‐refueled, non‐stop (1986) spaceplane for carrying space tourists

http://www.notablebiographies.com/news/Ow‐Sh/Rutan‐Burt.html
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Book: “Flight of the Titans: Boeing, Airbus and the Battle
INTRODUCTION TO AIRCRAFT DESIGN for the Future of Air Travel”

Great aircraft designers : Robert Lafontan (Breguet Atlantique, Airbus A‐380,...)

Robert Lafontan (France) started his career at


Dassault Aviation in 1977
Aged 30 he became Chief Engineer of the Breguet
Altantique
Joined Airbus in 1989, working for the A320
programme
In 1996 became Chief Engineer of the Airbus A3XX
project, which later became the A‐380
R. Lafontan is also a Test Pilot

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INTRODUCTION TO AIRCRAFT DESIGN
ATTRIBUTES OF AN “AIRCRAFT ARCHITECT” (adapted from Mason, Virginia Tech.)

•An “airplane nut”, fascinated with the art and science of aeronautics
•Posess a breadth of knowledge (including business practice) anchored in significant depth of
expertise in one or more core disciplines (e.g. Aerodynamics, structures, propulsion, systems,
manufacturing, airline operations...). Generally, a pilot of some sort.
•A multidisciplinary “large scale system thinker” – naturally grasps the essential elements of the
entire airplane system before diving into the specifics details of design
•Has an “artist’s eye” – a developed and informed aesthetic sense of what an airplane could and
should like (grounded in practical reality)
•Curiosity and the strong desire and ability to learn for life
•The ability and self‐confidence to think and act both creatively and critically
•Be a team‐player but be able to act independently with open minded flexibility and stubborn
tenacity
•Posess high standards of ethics and intellectual integrity
•Eagerness to take judicious risks and willingness to make mistakes (and learn from them)
•Leadership ability including vision and entrepreneurial skills
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COMMERCIAL TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT INDUSTRY
Global Players

The commercial aircraft industry is


dominated by two large companies in the 100+
seats category of aircraft:
‐ Boeing, USA, 157000 employees
‐ Airbus, (France, Germany, UK and
Spain), (part of EADS with 119000
employees)
‐ Embraer in Brazil and Bombardier in Canada
have been producing excellent aircraft below
100 seats for years
‐ New products from Russia, China and Japan
are entering the market
‐ Bombardier and China are breaking the 100+
seats duopoly with the C‐series and C919
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COMMERCIAL TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT INDUSTRY
BOEING COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT

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COMMERCIAL TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT INDUSTRY
BOEING COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT

The Boeing 787 is a very advanced and ambitious aircraft


It has just entered service with All Nippon Airlines

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COMMERCIAL TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT INDUSTRY
AIRBUS – SHORT RANGE AIRCRAFT

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COMMERCIAL TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT INDUSTRY
AIRBUS‐ WIDE BODY

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COMMERCIAL TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT INDUSTRY
AIRBUS – “EXTRA WIDE BODY”

The A350XWB (Extra Wide Body) is being currently developed at Airbus


It is a response to Boeing’s 787 although larger (it also targets 777)
More of 50% by weight of the aircraft structure uses carbon fibre
It is expected to enter service in 2013

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COMMERCIAL TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT INDUSTRY
AIRBUS – “LARGE AIRCRAFT”

The Airbus A380 is the largest passenger


aircraft in the world
The first flight was in April 2005
It weighs 560 tons at take‐off and can
carry 555 passengers and 30 attendants
The length and span of the aircraft were
limited by an airport compatibility rule
called the “80x80 meters box”

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COMMERCIAL TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT INDUSTRY
BUILDING AIRCRAFT IS NOT EASY...

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COMMERCIAL TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT INDUSTRY
Brazil, Canada, Russia, Japan Bombardier C‐Series competes directly with
A320 and B737 thus breaking the duopoly

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COMMERCIAL TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT INDUSTRY
...and, of course, China

China is very active in all aspects of Aerospace


COMAC is developing two modern commercial airliners
The C‐919 is a serious competitor for A320 and B737

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MILITARY AEROSPACE INDUSTRY
General and Sport Aviation

General aviation is changing rapidly due to new


regulations, the advent of very light and ultralight aircraft
and technology developments in propulsion and materials
There are currently some light aircraft with electric
motors and this trend is likely to grow in the future

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MILITARY AEROSPACE INDUSTRY
CURRENT STATUS

Fighter aircraft are only produced in a few


countries in ever smaller numbers
How many aircraft can you identify in this
page?

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MILITARY AEROSPACE INDUSTRY
Augustine’s laws – The issue of affordability of military aircraft
Military aerospace projects are
notorious for being late and over
budget
The graphs show the unsustainable
cost trends of fighter aircraft which
coupled with strategic changes is
putting pressure on the defense
industry

At this point the


entire US defense
budget will only be
able to afford a
single fighter plane

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MILITARY AEROSPACE INDUSTRY
“If one ignores ethical considerations, fighter aircraft design is good fun”, Fielding
Stealth (making the aircraft less detectable by
radar) is a key consideration in modern military
aircraft design
The first stealth fighter was the Lockheed F‐117
(1981)
The first stealth bomber the Northrop B‐2
(1989) F‐117

B‐2 is “by far, the most costly bombers to


operate on a per aircraft basis” (US General
Accounting Office)

B‐2

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MILITARY AEROSPACE INDUSTRY General Atomics Predator
Military Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAV)
The affordability issue and technology
advancements have made possible the
development of Unmanned Air Vehicles for the
air forces
The main roles are currently surveillance but
combat missions are being flown in Afganistan
Every Predator system consists of four unmanned aerial
vehicles (UAVs), a ground control station, a satellite
communications terminal and 55 personnel.
Internal Layout of UAV

EADS Barracuda

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MILITARY AEROSPACE INDUSTRY
A NEW 5TH GENERATION STEALTH FIGHTER?
The strategic situation may
have changed with the debut No attempt
to be
of the first 5th generation stealth
Chinese stealth fighter from the
aft view

F‐22 (USA)
Su T‐50 (Russia)

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GROUP ASSIGNMENT #1
DESIGN A CIVIL TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT*
FOR THE YEAR 2040
*Or an integrated transport system

Your last chance to design your dream airplane before you get drowned
in facts, physics and the folklore and tradition of the great old “tube and
wings” aircraft concept.
You can’t fail, it will take 30 years until we know wether you got it wrong.

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GROUP ASSIGNMENT 1
DESIGN AN AIRCRAFT OR INTEGRATED TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM FOR 2040

If evertyhing goes well, you will be chief engineer of a large


aerospace company in 2040. Your task will be to design the best
possible aircraft for the time or, may be, an integrated transport
system which may or may not include flight vehicles. It’s a
difficult job so you better start now:
Think about the future and the place for aeronautics in it:
‐ Will people want to fly in 2040?
‐ Will people be able to afford to fly in 2040?
‐ Will “Internet” render physical travel obsolete?
‐ Source products locally; no need for air freight?
‐ Will environmental considerations make travel unethical?
IF there is a need for transport airplanes in 2040 how will they
look like?
‐ What markets, missions?
‐ What technologies (propulsion; fuels, batteries)? http://www.newsoffuture.com/i
n_atmosphere_travel_is_increasi
‐ Complex and expensive or cheap and simple? ng_safely_future_transportation.
‐ What aircraft concept(s)? Families or a single type for html
all missions? Large aircraft or small personal vehicles?

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GROUP ASSIGNMENT 1
IT IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTUROLOGY...
Air travel faces severe challenges (or opportunities)
Fossil Oil prices will keep growing in the future
Environmental pressure is likely to grow too
Virtual Reality will make most business travel unnecessary

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_and_the_environment
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BOEING GLOBAL MARKET FORECAST 2010‐2029

Aircraft manufacturers are fully aware of the global trends


and adapt their future products to forecasted demand
Still conventional
configuration by
2010

Boeing unclear as
to what concept
will come next

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AIRBUS GLOBAL MARKET FORECAST 2010‐2029

Aircraft for EIS in 2025 are being studied now


Not a significant departure from conventional configuration
The main change is in the engines (open rotor or ultra high by‐pass ratio turbo‐fan)
Slight departure
in configuration

RPK: Revenue_Passenger*Kilometre

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AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE TRENDS Speed
The end of the tube‐and‐wing aircraft?

Look at these trends for different performance


parameters of conventional aircraft as a function of
Entry Into Service (EIS) year
Noise and specific energy (energy used to fly one Altitude
passenger one kilometre) have reduced significantly
and are reaching a plateau
Maximum flight distance is limited by the size of the
earth
The conventional configuration is reaching its limits
Distance
Noise Energy per pax per Km

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INTRODUCTION TO AIRCRAFT DESIGN
The limit of the configuration (the corner of the “concept space”)
From the first jet airliner (Boeing 707) in 1958 the overall efficiency has been improved very significantly
This has been due to technology development (aerodynamics, materials and propulsion) but the
configuration has remained effectively unchanged
The latest jetliners (787 and A350) have almost identical geometry

Energy per pax per Km

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INTRODUCTION TO AIRCRAFT DESIGN
The limit of the configuration (the corner of the “concept space”)
Large size helps to
increase efficiency, (if
you can fill the plane‐)

Technology evolution of the Airbus family


Typical technology items of contemporary airliners
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INTRODUCTION
A step change is required
Both Europe and US have set targets for improvement of energy efficiency and noise
reduction for the air transport industry
By inspection of the trends it is clear that either a technology or a configuration
breakthrough (or both) are required to bridge the performance gap
EUROPEAN ACARE TARGETS
Energy per pax per Km FOR 2020

Shortfall in fuel burn

Noise

Shortfall in Noise

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THE FUTURE OF AERONAUTICS: BOEING

The main aerospace companies are aware of


the need to investigate novel technologies and
configurations
The key “drivers” need to be considered;
geopolitical and sociological scenarios,
environmental aspects, energy sources,
materials and propulsion technologies...
Electric flight (using high energy density
batteries) seems a very likely option for 2030+

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THE FUTURE OF AERONAUTICS: NASA

US institutions and NASA in particular are


active fostering research on innovative
technologies and concepts
Environmental efficiency is now seen as an
important driver
US maintains a particularly strong interest in
supersonic flight and hypersonic vehicles.

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THE FUTURE OF AERONAUTICS: AIRBUS
An other European initiatives
Europe is also very active on aerospace research
for the short and long term
The main focus is on environmental efficiency
The “Airbus concept plane” (right) is a
compilation of possible future technologies on a
notional –and not too realistic‐ configuration
Airbus sponsors the “Fly your ideas”
competition.

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FUTURE PROJECTS
BLENDED WING BODY (BWB), OR FLYING WING, A POPULAR CONCEPT FOR THE FUTURE

The BWB or Flying wing concept is being studied seriously in both sides of the Altantic
It presents particular challenges in passenger evacuation and stability and control. A
possible first application could be for a military tanker or night (silent) cargo airplane
Boeing is currently flight‐testing a scale model (XB‐48)

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INTRODUCTION TO AIRCRAFT DESIGN
Where to start?

1‐ Decide the mission of the aircraft based on the world scenarios that you choose
2‐ Propose various configurations that may meet the mission requirements
3‐ Draw the concepts and review them technically considering “pros” and “cons” with
respect to each requirement. Choose a name for your project, don’t forget marketing.
4‐ Draw in detail (by hand is ok) your favourite concept and describe its merits and
limitations. Document your choices

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INTRODUCTION TO AIRCRAFT DESIGN
MATERIALS AND AIRCRAFT MANUFACTURING (IN A GLOBALISED SOCIETY)

Study current and future materials (see the example below, a state of the art
Boeing 787)
Consider how and where the aircraft will be manufactured (check out how
many companies and countries work in the design and manufacturing of a
modern aircraft). Is this business model correct? Can we ignore globalisation?

Boeing 787 materials

Boeing 787 work break‐down


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INTRODUCTION TO AIRCRAFT DESIGN
“THE OUTSIDE HAS TO BE BIGGER THAN THE INSIDE”

Consider the number of passengers, their


accommodation and level of comfort,
evacuation, ground servicing, cargo capacity

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GROUP ASSIGNMENT 1
GROUP ORGANISATION AND PRESENTATION

• Work in groups of 5 or 6 students


• Choose your “domain” (from those listed below, or choose your own topics, organise
yourselves as you like)
• World scenarios, mission and Top Level Aircraft Requirements
• New technologies (materials, systems, avionics, number of pilots)
• Aircraft configuration (external shape, aerodynamics, flight controls)
• Cabin and cargo, flight experience, ground servicing, evacuation, airport
compatibility
• Propulsion, fuels, environmental impact

• If you can’t make up your mind about the design of a single aircraft or integrated
transport system, that’s ok (it happens to aircraft manufacturers too): propose a family
of concepts or cover extreme world scenarios.

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GROUP ASSIGNMENT 1
GROUP ORGANISATION AND PRESENTATION

• Each member of the team will present one topic to the class (two slides per person) and write a
report (max. 5 pages) about it. You must cooperate with your partners and present a coherent
concept overall.
• Each team will be identified by a colour: Red Team, Blue, Green, Orange, etc...
• Design a Logo for your team and a name for your project
• Use the same format for all the reports and presentations of your team. Image and presentation
are important; you have to sell your ideas!

• Only about 10% of the information you will obtain from the Internet will be relevant for your
research and you will probably read only about 10% of it. BEWARE OF INFORMATION OVERLOAD,
YOU MUST BE SMART, FILTER THE INFORMATION AND MEET THE DEADLINES (AND STUDY OTHER
SUBJECTS)

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GROUP ASSIGNMENT 1
WHAT YOU WILL LEARN

‐ Become aware of the current and future challenges for air travel
‐ Know where to look for technical information
‐ Become familiar with the different technologies involved in air transporation
‐ Get used to making “informed guesses”
‐ Get used to inform yourself: overcome information overload (too much available
information in Internet, most of it unintelligible, most of it suspectedly irrelevant, too
little time to process). This is real life in a design office.
‐ Work as part of a team and individually.
‐ Hopefully design a realistic concept that you may see flying one day.

‐ Most importantly: you will ask yourself many questions and you will appreciate more the
rest of the course (and degree)

‐ The class will vote the winner project. This will become the specification for the second
group design assignment ‐> all the teams will compete to design the same concept

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ONLINE RESOURCES

• http://www.google.com/patents
•http://sketchup.google.com/intl/es/download/index.html
•http://sketchup.google.com/3dwarehouse/search?q=a380&styp=m&scoring=t&btnG=Buscar
•http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp
•http://www.airbus.com/company/market/forecast/passenger‐aircraft‐market‐
forecast/http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/
•http://www.newairplane.com/
•http://www.aeronautics.nasa.gov/fap/index.html
•http://www.aeronautics.nasa.gov/programs.htm
•http://www.cleansky.eu/index.php?arbo_id=38
•http://www.aiaa.org/
•http://innopedia.wikidot.com/
•http://www.acare4europe.com/html/introduction.asp
•http://www.cleansky.eu/index.php?arbo_id=83&set_language=en www.airliners.net
•http://www.wri.org/publication/which‐world‐scenarios‐21st‐century
•http://www.colorado.edu/AmStudies/lewis/ecology/scenario.htm#Three

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