prior posteriro and marginal

probabilities
(mannual and beysian revision on
excel )

there is diff EV with and of perfect

information

in decision trree with imperfect

information
1st comes marginal probabilities then
decision alternative and posteriro
probabilities

drilling and oil extraction

 10.0% 0.0%
oil
200000 190000
#NAME? Chance
drill
-10000 10000
90.0% 0.0%
no oil
0 -10000
Decision
16700
#NAME? 0.0%
no drill
0 0

#NAME?
drill
-10000

23.0% Decision
good
0 72608.6956521739
#NAME?
not drill

#NAME? Chance
Consult Geologist
0 16700

#NAME?
drill
-10000

77.0% Decision
poor
0 0
#NAME?
not drill
 probabilities prior probabilities(conditional probabilities)
oil 10% expert oil
no oil 90% p(good) 95%
p(poor) 5%

41.3043% 9.5%
oil
200000 190000
Chance
72608.6956521739
58.6957% 13.5%
no oil
0 -10000

0.0%
0

0.6494% 0.0%
oil
200000 190000
Chance
-8701.2987012987
99.3506% 0.0%
no oil
0 -10000

77.0%
0
 Marginal Probabilities (using formula) posteriror probabilities
no oil p(Good) 23.00% p(oil)
15% p(poor) 77.00% p(no oil)
85% 100.00%
good poor
41.30% 0.65%
58.70% 99.35%
100.00% 100.00%
Chance node muist preceded a chance node
number of branches of 2nd layer chance node must

the name of the second layer chance node must be same.

beysian revision apne aqp marginal probabilities along with poteriror probabilities nikal kar de deta ha.
yahan se app cell referencing karke values pichli sheet pe lejao aona decision treee me.

55.0%
good
0

expert says
New Tree
0

45.0%
poor
0
kar de deta ha.

86.3636% 47.5%
oil
0 0
Actual state
0
13.6364% 7.5%
no oil
0 0

5.5556% 2.5%
oil
0 0
Actual state
0
94.4444% 42.5%
no oil
0 0
10000 regular EMV nikli thi
EV with Imperfect information was 16700
16700-10000 =6700 this EVII EV of informatioin VIMPPP Attempt with PI on excel. see s
now 7000 geologist will take so we will not find imperfect information
wali thing better.
Attempt with PI on excel. see sollution from LMS