Probabilistic Fatigue Evaluation of Riveted Railway Bridges

Boulent M. Imam1; Timothy D. Righiniotis2; and Marios K. Chryssanthopoulos3

Abstract: A probabilistic fatigue assessment methodology for riveted railway bridges is presented. The methodology is applied to a
typical, short-span, riveted U.K. railway bridge under historical and present day train loading. On the loading side, the problem is
randomized through dynamic amplification and traffic volume; on the resistance side, the S-N curves and the cumulative damage model
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are treated probabilistically. Model uncertainty is represented by the ratio between actual and calculated stresses, the latter obtained
through finite element analysis. Annual response spectra for a fatigue-critical connection are developed through Monte Carlo simulation,
which show that there is a continual and accelerating increase in the mean stress range experienced by the connection with time. S-N
curves proposed in United States and United Kingdom codes are used in combination with Miner’s rule, to estimate the remaining fatigue
life of the connection for different target failure probabilities. Parametric studies revealed that fatigue life estimates exhibit the highest
sensitivity to detail classification, to S-N predictions in the region of high endurances, and to model uncertainty. This highlights the
importance of field monitoring for old bridges approaching the end of their useful life.
DOI: 10.1061/共ASCE兲1084-0702共2008兲13:3共237兲
CE Database subject headings: Bridges, railroad; Steel; Probability; Fatigue life; United Kingdom.

Introduction probabilistic treatments have presented their results in terms of

A significant part of the railway bridge stock around Europe and
North America consists of metallic railway bridges. Riveted con-
struction was employed for the majority of these bridges, which
were built during the second half of the 19th and the beginning of
the 20th centuries. This implies that many of these bridges have
exceeded 100 years of age. Train loads and speeds, as well as
traffic volumes, have been increasing continually over the years
and, today, these bridges sustain loads that are substantially dif-
ferent to those experienced 100 or even 50 years ago. This,
coupled with the fact that old riveted bridges were never designed
against fatigue, renders their fatigue assessment a task of consid-
erable importance in railway infrastructure management.
So far, the majority of the fatigue assessment procedures
employed for old riveted bridges have been based on determinis-
tic methods. However, in the past decade or so, probabilistic
methodologies have emerged as a viable alternative incorporating
uncertainty in both resistance and loading 共Brühwiler and Kunz
1993; Kunz and Hirt 1993; Tobias and Foutch 1997兲. As is ap-
propriate for time-dependent reliability problems, fatigue-related
1
Postdoctoral Researcher, School of Engineering 共C5兲, Univ. of
Surrey, Guildford, Surrey GU2 7XH, U.K. 共corresponding author兲.
E-mail: b.imam@surrey.ac.uk
2
Lecturer in Structural Engineering, School of Engineering 共C5兲,
Univ. of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey GU2 7XH, U.K. E-mail:
t.righiniotis@surrey.ac.uk
3
Professor of Structural Systems, School of Engineering 共C5兲, Univ.
of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey GU2 7XH, U.K. E-mail: mkchry@
surrey.ac.uk
Note. Discussion open until October 1, 2008. Separate discussions
must be submitted for individual papers. To extend the closing date by
one month, a written request must be filed with the ASCE Managing
Editor. The manuscript for this paper was submitted for review and pos-
sible publication on December 18, 2006; approved on September 5, 2007.
This paper is part of the Journal of Bridge Engineering, Vol. 13, No. 3,
May 1, 2008. ©ASCE, ISSN 1084-0702/2008/3-237–244/$25.00.
either a reliability index ␤ 共Brühwiler and Kunz 1993; Kunz and
Hirt 1993兲 or a failure probability P f 共Tobias and Foutch 1997兲.
Both ␤ and P f are evolving with time, capturing the reduction in
the available safety margin against fatigue as the number of load
cycles experienced by the structure increases. These probabilistic
performance measures can be associated with the widely accepted
safety factor format 共AASHTO 1998兲.
Following previous work 共Imam et al. 2005, 2006兲, the authors
have extended the deterministic fatigue assessment of a United
Kingdom typical, simply supported, short-span, riveted railway
bridge 共Fig. 1兲, in order to account for both material and loading
uncertainties. By focusing on the most critical connection 共S7,
Fig. 1兲, as identified in a deterministic manner by Imam et al.
共2005, 2006兲, its associated loading is randomized by introducing
uncertainties in the train frequencies as well as its dynamic am-
plification, the latter captured via the dynamic amplification factor
共DAF兲. Further uncertainty in loading is incorporated by consid-
ering the epistemic or modeling uncertainty, represented by the
ratio of actual-to-calculated stresses. Thus, through the use of
Monte Carlo simulation, annual response spectra, in the form of
stress ranges, are generated for four distinct time periods span-
ning the bridge’s life since 1900.
On the resistance side, in addition to the Miner sum, S-N
curves used in the United Kingdom 共BS 1980; Railtrack 2001兲
and the United States 共AREA 1996兲, for the fatigue detail under
consideration, are modeled probabilistically. By combining load-
ing and resistance uncertainties in a reliability-based formulation,
failure probability time profiles and remaining fatigue life esti-
mates are generated for the critical detail of the particular bridge
analyzed in this paper.
Fatigue Detail Classification
Several fatigue detail classifications are suggested in United
Kingdom 共BS 1980; Railtrack 2001兲 and American 共AREA 1996兲

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Fig. 1. Finite element model of a typical riveted railway bridge
codes to represent the fatigue behavior of riveted connections.
BS5400 共BS 1980兲 suggests the use of its Class D for riveted
details. Class B can also be used, following some tests on riveted
girders 共Xie et al. 2001兲. Since the latter class relates to the stress
at the edge of a hole, its S-N curve has to be divided by a stress
concentration factor of 2.4 共suggested in BS5400兲 in order to
express it in terms of commonly used nominal stress. This class
will be termed as “modified Class B” hereafter. The U.K. railway
assessment code 共Railtrack 2001兲 proposes a specific class for
wrought-iron riveted details 共Class WI兲.
On the other hand, in the American Railway Engineering As-
sociation 共AREA 1996兲 code, a distinction is made between steel
riveted connections with low or normal clamping force, the effect
of which was investigated extensively by Zhou et al. 共1995兲. For
the former, Category D is suggested, whereas for the latter, a
combination of Category D and C curves is proposed. For normal
clamping, a further distinction is made between punched and
drilled holes. In the same code, a classification for wrought iron
riveted connections is also given 共Category E兲.
When all stress ranges in a stress history are below the con-
stant amplitude fatigue limit 共CAFL兲, ⌬␴0, the assumption of an
infinite life may be adopted. However, long life 共number of cycles
⬎108兲 variable amplitude fatigue tests carried out on full-scale
welded details 共Fisher et al. 1983, 1993兲 have resulted in fatigue
cracking even when only 0.1% of the applied stress ranges was
above the CAFL. For this reason, U.S. codes 共AREA 1996;
AASHTO 1998兲 treat variable amplitude loading by extending the
S-N curves downwards without a change of slope at the CAFL. In
the case of U.K. codes 共BS 1980; Railtrack 2001兲, variable am-
plitude loading is treated by changing the slope of the S-N curve
from m to m + 2 for stress ranges below the CAFL, which is
defined at N = 107 cycles.
The mean and design 共defined as “mean minus two standard
deviations”兲 S-N curves of the above-mentioned U.K. detail clas-
sifications for steel riveted details are shown in Fig. 2, whereas
Fig. 3 presents their American counterparts. In addition to the S-N
curves, Figs. 2 and 3 also present full-scale experimental results
on old steel and wrought-iron riveted members and connections
retrieved from the literature. The majority of these were retrieved
from Kulak 共2000兲. A considerable degree of scatter can be ob-
served in these test results, which is greater than that evidenced
with welded details. Several reasons contributing to this scatter
may be identified: The wide range of rivet clamping force values
in the specimens, the different stress ratios that were applied
during different tests, the different material properties 共old steel
versus wrought iron兲, the method of hole preparation 共punched
Fig. 2. Results of full-scale fatigue tests on old steel and
wrought-iron riveted members and connections compared with S-N
curves suggested by U.K. codes 关adopted from BS 共1980兲; Railtrack
共2001兲兴
versus drilled兲, the possible presence of corrosion on test speci-
mens from actual girders, the different termination criteria used in
the tests 共first observed cracking, fracture or excessive deforma-
tion兲 and, finally, the variation in damage accumulated before
removing the specimens for testing 共Imam 2006兲. The data pre-
sented in Figs. 2 and 3 imply a higher standard deviation than that
assumed in either U.K. or U.S. classifications.
By studying Figs. 2 and 3, it can be seen that the modified
Class B S-N curves 共mean and design兲 and the AREA curves
共mean and design兲 for punched holes seem to provide a reason-
able fit to the experimental results. The Class D mean S-N curve
共Fig. 2兲 lies much too close to the upper bound of the experi-
mental data, while the Category D curve 共Fig. 3兲 becomes too
conservative for higher endurances. The AREA S-N curve for
drilled holes has not been considered further, since the method of
hole preparation used in the construction of riveted bridges at the
beginning of the previous century was likely to be by punching.
The fatigue data on wrought-iron riveted members and con-
nections presented in Figs. 2 and 3 are replotted in Fig. 4 in order
to make direct comparisons with the mean and design S-N curves
for wrought-iron riveted details 共Railtrack Class WI and AREA
Category E兲. Due to the limited number of full-scale test results
on wrought-iron elements, small-scale test results on wrought-
Fig. 3. Results of full-scale fatigue tests on old steel and
wrought-iron riveted members and connections compared with S-N
curves suggested by the AREA 共1996兲 code

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Fig. 4. Results of full-scale and small-scale fatigue tests on
wrought-iron riveted members and connections compared with U.K.
and American S-N curves
iron members and connections are also presented in Fig. 4. It can
be seen that the Class WI design curve captures the scatter for
wrought-iron riveted connections reasonably well. In contrast, the
AREA Category E mean and design curves seem to be conserva-
tive with respect to the experimental results. The reason for the
observed short endurances for the two data points lying below the
S-N curves 共indicated by circles in Fig. 4兲, which were tested at a
stress range of 90 MPa, may be due to the fact that these speci-
mens had been pretested at lower stress ranges and may have
contained nonidentified cracks hidden by the rivet head 共Fisher
et al. 1987兲. However, given the limited number of tests, these
two outliers should be treated with considerable caution.
Figs. 2–4 suggest that the BS5400 modified Class B, the
Railtrack Class WI S-N curve, and the AREA curve for punched
holes present the most reasonable options with respect to the
experimental results. This suggestion is largely based on com-
parison of the S-N curves with the test results lying in the region
N ⬍ 107 cycles, which comprise the majority of the experimental
data. There are very few test data in the region beyond N
⬎ 107 cycles, which corresponds to stress ranges below
50– 60 MPa. As will be seen later in the paper, this is precisely
the region of interest for riveted railway bridges, since the major-
ity of the stress cycles are close to or below the CAFL of the
detail classifications considered. Small changes in the S-N curves
in this high endurance region 共N ⬎ 107兲 can have a significant
effect on fatigue life predictions. More experimental results under
low stress ranges 共less than 50– 60 MPa兲 are obviously required
in order to ascertain the validity of the proposed S-N curves and,
thus, increase confidence in estimating remaining fatigue lives.
It has to be emphasized that there is very limited published
work on full-scale tests of riveted bridge connections such as
stringer-to-cross-girder connections 共Imam 2006兲. Due to the
complex behavior of such connections, which involves out-of-
plane deformations and the development of secondary stresses
共Al-Emrani 2005兲, it is often difficult to interpret test results on an
S-N basis using nominal stresses. As is well known, the S-N
curves found in fatigue codes are generally developed for uniaxial
stress conditions and it has yet to be verified whether they can be
used confidently for estimating the fatigue life of such riveted
connections. Notwithstanding these comments, and given the ab-
sence of specific test results on stringer-to-cross-girder connec-
tions, the BS5400 modified Class B, the Railtrack Class WI, and
the AREA punched hole curves are selected in this paper for
fatigue damage calculation.
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J. Bridge Eng. 2008.13:237-244.
Probabilistic Framework
Resistance Random Variables
The fatigue life of a particular structural detail under constant
amplitude loading may be estimated from an S-N curve, which is
described by
N共⌬␴兲m = C 共1兲
where N = number of cycles to failure; ⌬␴ = applied constant
amplitude stress range; and C and m = constants relevant to the
fatigue detail in question. In a probabilistic formulation, N is
generally considered a lognormal random variable whose distri-
bution has a constant standard deviation and varying mean
共Chryssanthopoulos and Righiniotis 2006兲. If it is further assumed
that m and ⌬␴ are deterministic, it follows from Eq. 共1兲 that C
will also be lognormal with the same coefficient of variation
共CoV兲 as N.
In this work, mean values for C are obtained from BS 共1980兲
for modified Class B and the U.K. railway assessment code 共Rail-
track 2001兲 for Class WI. In both cases, the CoV of C is assumed
equal to 0.30 as proposed by BS 共1980兲. For the AREA S-N
curves, the mean values and CoV for C proposed by Moses et al.
共1987兲 are used. Accordingly, a CoV of 0.14 is assumed for the
AREA Categories C and D, and a CoV of 0.10 is assumed for
Category E.
The probabilistic description of the S-N curves also requires
the calculation of a reference stress range associated with C. In
the case of the British S-N curves, this reference stress range is
the CAFL, ⌬␴0, defined at a life N = 107. Therefore, for each
sample value of C, the corresponding CAFL is calculated through
Eq. 共1兲, by taking logarithms on both sides 共for N = 107兲 and re-
arranging as
log C − 7
log共⌬␴0兲 = 共2兲
m
Eq. 共2兲 implies that ⌬␴0 is a derived random variable, fully cor-
related with C. The same approach is adopted for the AREA S-N
curves, the only difference being that the reference stress range is
defined at N = 2 ⫻ 106. In graphical terms, the effect of random
variability is to produce a parallel shifting of the S-N curves.
In the case of variable amplitude loading, fatigue damage is
calculated using the Miner sum which is given as 共Miner 1945兲
n
D= 兺i Nii 共3兲
where D = total damage; ni = applied number of cycles at a stress
range ⌬␴i; and Ni = fatigue life corresponding to the same stress
range. Fatigue failure is assumed to occur when D is greater than
or equal to a damage limit ⌬, which is typically taken equal to
unity in deterministic analysis. However, ⌬ is susceptible to con-
siderable uncertainty, especially in the case of variable amplitude
loading. A lognormal distribution with a mean value of 0.90 and a
CoV of 0.30 is considered here in accordance with earlier studies
共Wirsching 1995兲.
Loading and Modeling Random Variables
Live loading on the bridge is represented by a rail traffic model,
which was developed by the authors in previous studies 共Imam
et al. 2006兲. It is divided into four distinct periods 共1900–1920,
1920–1940, 1940–1970, and 1970–2005兲, each associated with
 Table 1. Random Variables for Probabilistic Analysis
Random
variable Mean CoV Distribution
a
C 共BS5400 modified Class B兲 2.34⫻ 10 15
0.30 Lognormal
共Railtrack Class WI兲 9.33⫻ 1013 0.30 Lognormal
共AREA Category C兲 3.04⫻ 1012 0.14 Lognormal
共AREA Category D兲 1.44⫻ 1012 0.14 Lognormal
共AREA Category E兲 5.60⫻ 1011 0.10 Lognormal
⌬ 0.90 0.30 Lognormal
DAF 1.10 0.14 Normal
␣ 0.80 0.14 Normal
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Annual train frequency f ti From 共Imam et al. 2006兲 and BS 共1980兲 0.14 Lognormal
a
Units: MPa3.

particular characteristics in rail traffic. Historical trains are pro-
posed for the first three periods, whereas the fourth period is
represented by the BS 共1980兲 medium traffic model, as suggested
by the code for current rail traffic. Although load evolution and
its impact on the fatigue life of welded details has been consid-
ered in highway bridges 共Righiniotis 2006兲, this study adopts
nonevolving loads from present day onwards, which is likely to
be a nonconservative assumption given the current outlook on the
development of rail freight in the United Kingdom and other
countries. Further details regarding the proposed rail traffic model
and the train characteristics 共axle weights, spacings, and train
frequencies兲 can be found in Imam et al. 共2006兲.
The annual frequency for each train type crossing the bridge
is assumed to be lognormally distributed, as proposed by
Ebrahimpour et al. 共1992兲, with a CoV of 0.14. Randomness
in train frequencies is, of course, directly linked to the annual
number of applied stress cycles.
One of the major sources of loading uncertainty is associated
with dynamic amplification. Following the field measurements
presented by Byers 共1970兲 and Tobias and Foutch 共1997兲 on
short-span steel railway bridges, a normal distribution with a
mean value of 1.10 and a standard deviation of 0.15 is assumed
for the DAF.
Modeling or epistemic uncertainty is typically captured by the
differences between the analytically/numerically obtained stress
ranges ⌬␴a and the actual stress ranges ⌬␴ f . In general, actual
stresses obtained through field measurements are lower than their
calculated counterparts 共Sweeney et al. 1997兲. This can be attrib-
uted to several reasons, such as the beneficial effects of the lon-
gitudinal and transverse distribution of train axle loads through
the rails, sleepers and ballast, which are typically ignored in the
A summary of all the random variables and their distribution
characteristics considered in the probabilistic analyses is shown in
Table 1.
Damage and Remaining Life Formulation
For the purposes of the probabilistic analyses, annual response
spectra are developed for each period of the rail traffic model
共1900–1920, 1920–1940, 1940–1970, 1970–2005兲. These spectra
are developed by multiplying the static stress ranges obtained
from previous deterministic analyses of the bridge under the pas-
sage of individual train types over one track of the bridge 共Imam
et al. 2006兲 with the DAF and the ␣ factor. For each individual
train crossing, a different value of DAF and ␣ is sampled from the
assumed probability distributions in order to account for random-
ness in these variables. This process of calculating the determin-
istic stress ranges is carried out f ti times, where f ti is the annual
frequency of train type i in any given time period. Effectively a
Monte Carlo simulation is carried out, with random variables
DAF and ␣ sampled from assumed distributions. Since the train
frequencies f ti are also taken to be random, the above process is
repeated 103 times, in order to capture the uncertainty in the train
frequencies.
The annual damage Da,l in each period l can be calculated
from its annual response spectrum and will be given, for the case
of the two-slope British S-N curves, as
Da,l = D⬘a,l + Da,l
⬙ 共4兲
where

冉 冊
k1
analysis, the higher design axle loads given in codes as compared n ⌬␴i m
to the true axle loads, the partial end fixity of the various mem- ⬘ =
Da,l 兺
i=1 10
i
7
⌬␴0
if ⌬␴i 艌 ⌬␴0 共5兲
bers, the participation of the bracing and the floor system on the
response of the structure and, finally, the composite action of

冉 冊
the ballast and track with the bridge superstructure. In order to k2
n ⌬␴i m+2
account for this class of uncertainties, a factor ␣ = ⌬␴ f / ⌬␴a is
introduced, which is assumed to follow a normal distribution with
⬙ =
Da,l 兺
i=1 10
i
7
⌬⌬␴0
if ⌬␴i 艋 ⌬␴0 共6兲

a mean value of 0.80. This value was obtained by comparing

static stresses obtained analytically or numerically with static val-
ues obtained through field measurements 共Byers 1976; Adamson
and Kulak 1995; Sweeney et al. 1997兲. By comparison, the
AREA 共1996兲 code suggests a value of 0.85 for span lengths up to
23 m. This is likely to be higher than an average value. Following
the proposal of Byers 共1976兲, a CoV of 0.14 is adopted for ␣.
where k1 and k2 = number of stress range blocks ⌬␴i in the annual
response spectrum above and below the CAFL, respectively; and
ni = number of cycles in each ⌬␴i, which as mentioned previously
is randomized through f ti.
By contrast, for the single slope AREA S-N curves 共Category
E兲, the annual damage will be given as

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Fig. 5. Annual spectrum of calculated stress ranges for the period Fig. 7. Annual spectrum of calculated stress ranges for the period
1900–1920 1940–1970

k1
1
Da,l = 兺
C i=1
ni共⌬␴i兲m 共7兲 Based on the limit state function of Eq. 共8兲, the probability of
fatigue failure can be defined as the probability of g 艋 0. In other
words
In the case of the combined AREA S-N curve for punched holes
共combination of Categories C and D兲, Eq. 共7兲 is modified accord- P f = P关g共X兲 艋 0兴 = P关Tr 艋 t兴 = ⌽共− ␤兲 共10兲
ingly.
The probability of failure is calculated by considering a limit where g 艋 0 represents the “failure” domain; ␤ = reliability index,
state function given as and ⌽共 兲 = standard normal distribution function. This time-
varying failure probability is estimated using Monte Carlo simu-
lp Tl
lation with 106 samples. The sample size was determined through
g=⌬−D=⌬− 兺 兺 Da,l
l=1 j=1
共8兲 a convergence study as discussed by Imam 共2006兲.

where l p = number of periods 共or annual response spectra兲 of

interest; and Tl = number of years in each period. For the traf-
fic model adopted here 共historical load model plus BS5400
medium traffic兲, l p = 4, T1 = 20, T2 = 20, T3 = 30, and T4 艌 35.
The last inequality indicates that the sum in Eq. 共8兲 is calculated
by extrapolating the BS5400 medium traffic model into the fu-
ture, up to the point of fatigue failure of the connection 共g 艋 0兲,
without accounting for any future load evolution. Under this as-
sumption, the remaining fatigue life Tr of the connection, assum-
ing that all failures occur in the period from 1970 onwards, is
given as
l p Tl
⌬ − 兺 兺 Da,l
l=1 j=1
Tr = 共9兲
Da,4
For failures occurring in preceding periods, the denominator of
Eq. 共9兲 is modified accordingly.
Results and Discussion
Annual Response Spectra
Figs. 5–8 show the annual response spectra for critical inner
stringer-to-cross-girder connections for each distinct period of
the rail traffic model. As mentioned previously, these spectra in-
corporate the random effect of DAF, ␣, and f ti. In all the figures,
the CAFL for the modified Class B and the Class WI considered
in the U.K. codes, as well as the mean values ␮ and the CoV of
the stress range are indicated. As can be seen, the majority of the
stress cycles experienced by the connection are below the fatigue
limits. It is also apparent that there is a continuous increase in the
level of the mean stress range, in effect doubling in value between
the beginning and the end of the 20th century. On average, the
increase is much more significant in the latter half of this period.

Fig. 6. Annual spectrum of calculated stress ranges for the period Fig. 8. Annual spectrum of calculated stress ranges for the period
1920–1940 1970 onwards

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Fig. 9. Probability density function of predicted fatigue life for Fig. 10. Probability of fatigue failure versus time for U.K. detail
various detail classifications classification

In essence, the distributions corresponding to successive periods
may be seen to shift to the right, thus pushing progressively more
stress ranges above the CAFL.
Fitted probability distributions to each response spectrum are
also shown in Figs. 5–8. Different distribution types were tested
and the best fit was found to be provided by the Weibull law,
whose probability density function 共PDF兲 is given as
the remaining fatigue life of the connection is found to be
110 years. For the same probability of failure and assuming its
American counterpart 共AREA punched holes兲, the remaining
fatigue life drops to 40 years. However, given the large number of
bridge connections present in the U.K. railway network, it is pru-
dent to consider a target lower than 2.3%. For example, it is
estimated that roughly 6,000 bridges similar to the type presented

冋 冉 冊册
in Fig. 1 are in service today with an average of about 16 fatigue-

f共x兲 = 冉冊
␭ x
␩ ␩
␭−1
exp −
x
␩
␭
共11兲
critical connections each, which corresponds to a total of almost
100,000 共Imam 2006兲. Thus, a 1% failure probability target 共or a
corresponding ␤ = 2.3兲 would imply 1,000 connection failures
where ␭ and ␩ are the distribution parameters. The estimated within 85 years assuming modified Class B or within 25 years
values of these parameters are given in the respective figures. assuming the AREA punched holes classification. Of course, once
Since the stress ranges close to and above the fatigue limit make a connection fails, load redistribution is likely to occur within
the largest contribution to fatigue damage, the distribution param- such bridges, which is not taken into account here. The differ-
eters were determined considering the best fit with respect to ences between the results associated with the wrought-iron S-N
the stress range blocks on the right tail of the histograms. The curves 共Railtrack Class WI versus AREA Category E兲 are found
first period spectrum is represented by an exponential distribution to be significantly higher, with the AREA curve leading to very
关Eq. 共11兲 with ␭ = 1兴, whereas the following three are better de- high probabilities of fatigue failure.
scribed by the two-parameter Weibull. The great degree of variation observed in remaining fatigue
life estimates 共Figs. 10 and 11兲 can be attributed to the differences
Remaining Fatigue Life between the S-N curves that were considered 共Figs. 2–4兲.
Comparison of the BS5400 modified Class B mean S-N
Fig. 9 depicts the PDF of the predicted fatigue life of the connec- curve with the AREA mean curve for punched holes shows
tion according to two U.K. and one U.S. detail classification. The that the former results in more conservative life estimates up to
mean life ␮ and its standard deviation ␴ are also presented in the N ⬇ 5 ⫻ 107 cycles. Thereafter, the latter becomes more onerous.
figures. The PDF are very well described by lognormal distribu- Since the majority of the stress ranges experienced by the con-
tions, as might be expected given the input distributions shown in nection are close to and below the CAFL, as was demonstrated in
Table 1. From an engineering point of view, it is important to
emphasize that the significance of these distributions lies in the
very high standard deviations rather than in the mean values. The
estimated values for the standard deviations offer a quantitative
assessment of the overall uncertainty associated with fatigue
evaluation procedures and underline the importance of adopting
intensified inspection and management plans for this class of
bridges.
Failure probabilities from year 2004 onwards are calculated
according to Eq. 共10兲 and based on the spectra shown in
Figs. 5–8. Fig. 10 shows the probability of fatigue failure P f
of the connection against time for two U.K. detail classifications
共modified Class B and Class WI兲, whereas Fig. 11 presents results
obtained by considering the AREA S-N curves 共punched holes
and Category E兲. It is evident from Figs. 10 and 11 that detail
classification has a significant effect on the fatigue failure prob-
ability of the connection. For a 2.3% probability of failure 共or a Fig. 11. Probability of fatigue failure versus time for the AREA
corresponding ␤ = 2.0兲 and assuming a modified Class B detail, detail classification

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J. Bridge Eng. 2008.13:237-244.


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Fig. 12. Effect of different variables on the remaining fatigue
life corresponding to a target 2.3% probability of failure 共AREA
classification兲
Figs. 5–8, and correspond to the lower part of the S-N curves
共⌬␴ ⬍ 50 MPa兲, this explains the lower remaining fatigue life es-
timates obtained by considering the AREA classification for
punched holes. In the case of the wrought-iron detail classifica-
tions, it can be seen in Fig. 4 that the AREA Category E S-N
curves are more onerous than the Railtrack Class WI curves along
the whole spectrum. Due to the single slope of the AREA curves
共m = 3兲, the deviations between the two sets of curves can be seen
to increase for lower stress ranges and higher lives. For stress
ranges ⌬␴ ⬍ 50 MPa, which is the region of interest, there are
very large differences in fatigue life predictions between the
AREA and Railtrack curves, as can be seen in Figs. 10 and 11.
Given the very few test results available in the low stress/high
endurance region and the significant differences in the proposed
S-N curves therein, the numerically derived fatigue life estimates
presented herein should be viewed with caution. On the other
hand, given the implications of fatigue damage on a large number
of connections in a busy network, these estimates suggest that
measures to improve our ability to predict 共e.g., inspection, field
monitoring兲 and prolong 共e.g., repair兲 fatigue life are essential
for effective infrastructure management. A timely management of
repairs and replacement needs to be in place well before riveted
bridges reach the end of their already considerably long service
life.
Parametric Studies
Parametric studies in order to investigate the effect of different
variables on the failure probability of the connection over time
have also been carried out. Each time a single variable 共in the
case of random variables, their mean value兲 was varied, while
keeping the others fixed. Fig. 12 shows the effect of the damage
limit ⌬, ␣ factor, and DAF on the characteristic 共2.3% probability
of failure兲 fatigue life of the connection. The base model is asso-
ciated with the characteristics presented in Table 1 combined with
the AREA S-N curve for punched holes. Fig. 12 shows the per-
centage increases 共towards the right兲 and the percentage decreases
共towards the left兲 brought about by changing, one at a time, the
mean values of the random variables. Notwithstanding the domi-
nant influence of the detail classification, the most substantial
change in fatigue life is affected by the ␣ factor, which represents
the model uncertainty. In comparison, the effect of the DAF and
the damage limit ⌬ can be seen to be less profound. These results
JOURNAL OF BRIDGE ENGINEERING © ASCE / MAY/JUNE 2008 / 243
J. Bridge Eng. 2008.13:237-244.
emphasize that accurate estimation of stress ranges is essential, a
process that would greatly benefit from field measurements.
Conclusions
A methodology for probabilistic fatigue evaluation of riveted rail-
way bridges was presented, which is an extension of earlier de-
terministic studies carried out by the authors. Response spectra
for a fatigue-critical connection were developed and Weibull dis-
tributions were fitted to the response histograms. These spectra
correspond to four time periods, the first dating back to 1900,
reflecting changes in rail traffic. It was found that the majority of
the stress cycles experienced by the connection are close to and
below the CAFL, but also that there is a continual and accelerat-
ing increase in the mean stress range with time, ranging from
5.8 MPa to 12.6 MPa from the beginning to the end of the 20th
century.
Comparison of experimental data retrieved from the literature
with available S-N curves revealed that the BS5400 modified
class B, the Railtrack Class WI, and the AREA curve for punched
holes present the most reasonable options for the fatigue assess-
ment of riveted connection details. However, substantial differ-
ences in fatigue life estimates were obtained using these different
classifications for riveted details. These differences were attrib-
uted to the deviations between the S-N curves in the low stress/
high endurance region, typically beyond 10 million cycles. Since
the S-N curves in this region are supported by only a few test
results, any remaining life estimates for this class of bridges
should be viewed with caution. Nonetheless, the results suggest
that a number of critical bridge connections are approaching the
end of their service life and, as a result, a timely management of
repairs and replacement needs to be developed, especially since it
is unlikely that fatigue evaluation procedures will be sufficiently
improved within a relatively short time frame relevant to this
class of bridges. Further parametric studies revealed that fatigue
life exhibits the highest sensitivity to detail classification and the
␣ factor, which represents model uncertainty. This highlights the
importance of field monitoring for old bridges approaching the
end of their useful life. The damage limit and the DAF were
found to be of less importance.
The results presented in this paper are based on the assumption
of nonevolving loads from present day onwards. It would be
sensible to consider future increases in train axle loads and fre-
quencies, which would obviously reduce the remaining life esti-
mates further. In particular, possible introduction of higher axle
loads 共from 25 t to 30 t per axle兲, which is currently being dis-
cussed across Europe, could have significant effect on remaining
fatigue life estimates, given the evidence presented herein regard-
ing the implications of pushing stress ranges beyond the currently
accepted fatigue limit levels.
Acknowledgments
The work described in this paper forms part of a project supported
by Network Rail. The opinions expressed are those of the writers
and do not necessarily represent those of the sponsoring organi-
zations. We would like to thank Mr. Brian Bell, Network Rail
project officer for valuable discussions and feedback.
 Notation Proc., National Structural Engineering Conf., Vol. I, ASCE,
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