Global Carbon (CO2) Emission

Regression Modelling
Group 2
Ajay Anand Shukla – 2314003
Jigyasa Dashora – 2314022
Nitin Kapoor – 2314032
Rahatul Ashafeen - 2314036
Global Carbon (CO2) Emission Regression Modelling Report
Objective:
The primary goal of this study is to analyse real-life applications of carbon (CO2) emission
regression modelling and its implications for policy planning to reduce carbon emissions
worldwide.

Data Selection:

Basis:
We conducted an in-depth analysis of the driving factors behind CO2 emissions.

Factors Considered:
• Industrialization
• Technology Progress
• Urbanization
• Energy Consumption
• Agriculture

Principle Applied:
We applied the Parsimony Principle to select the most relevant explanatory variables.

Data Overview:
We collected data for four years: 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020. A sample dataset for one of
these years is presented below:

Energy Vehicle CO2

GDP (in Population
No of rows. Consumptio Production Emission
Million) (Mn)
n (Mn ton) (Mn) (Mn ton)
1st row
329.83 435,225 0.10 8.92 55.30

……. ……. ……. ……. ……. …….

25th row
262.91 271,886 0.09 5.53 39

(Please find raw data set here)

Hypothesis:
With initial analysis, we found that the most significant factors explaining CO2 emissions are:
• Population & Vehicle production
Regression Model Variables:
We constructed a combined regression model with the following response and predictors:

Response:
• CO2 Emission (CO2 Em)

Predictors:
• Energy Consumption (EC)
• GDP (G)
• Vehicle Production (VP)
• Population (P)

Regression Approach:

Approach 1: Scatter Plot

We observed strong correlations between the variables, with Energy Consumption (EC) and
CO2 Emission (CO2 Em) having the highest correlation coefficient.

EC GDP VP Pop CO2 Em

EC 1.00 0.88 0.93 0.74 0.99
GDP 0.88 1.00 0.75 0.49 0.82
VP 0.93 0.75 1.00 0.74 0.95
Pop 0.74 0.49 0.74 1.00 0.79
CO2 Em 0.99 0.82 0.95 0.79 1.00

Approach 2: Fit Model

We performed a regression analysis for all the years.

2017: ⏞𝑌 = -92.89368 + 0.260 EC – 6.872e-5 GDP + 51.826494 VP + 0.3741194 P

2018: ⏞Y = −131.23 + 0.206 EC + 3.528e−6 GDP + 61.88154 VP + 0.6347112 P
2019: ⏞Y = −92.46676 + 0.267 EC − 7.212e−5 GDP + 48.165042 VP + 0.3584881 P
2020: ⏞Y = −87.00767 + 0.256 EC − 6.825e−5 GDP + 59.001293 VP + 0.3595516 P

Energy Vehicle
Year Intercept GDP Population
Consumption Production

2020 0.009 <.0001 0.032* .0003 0.041*

2019 0.006 <.0001 <.0001 0.001 0.007

2018 0.007 <.0001 0.71 0.003 0.0005

2017 0.004 <.0001 0.0002 0.0003 0.004

Burning Questions:
1. Which variables are significant for explaining CO2 emission and how?
2. What roles does GDP has on CO2 emission?
3. How does Population impact CO2 emissions?

Outcome of Approach (Analysis):

• Energy Consumption (EC) and Vehicle Production (VP) are highly significant
predictors. Also, if EC increased by 1 units, CO2 increases by .256 units & if VP
increased by 1 units, CO2 increases by 59 units.
• GDP, while statistically significant, has a relatively low impact.
• Population (P) has the least impact on CO2 emissions.

Regression Statistics:
• R-Square: Indicates the effectiveness of the model, with values close to 1 suggesting
a strong fit.
• Root Mean Square Error (RMSE): Measures the accuracy of the model.
• Observations: The number of data points considered.

Particulars 2017 2018 2019 2020

R Square 0.997 0.994 0.997 0.997

R Square Adj. 0.996 0.992 0.996 0.997

Root Mean Square Foot 122 182 126 116

Observations 25 25 25 25

Conclusion:
• Energy Consumption (EC) and Vehicle Production (VP) are key drivers of CO2
emissions.
• GDP shows a weaker correlation with CO2 emissions.
• There's an inverse relationship between GDP and CO2 emissions, suggesting that
high GDP alone doesn't drive emissions.

Implications and Decisions:

• Promote renewable energy sources to reduce emissions.
• Encourage the adoption of green fleet options to tackle vehicle-related emissions.
• Prioritize economic development for investing in emission-reducing technology.
• While population contributes, there are currently no direct CO2 reduction measures
linked to population.