Population Projection Methods

Planning Theory MPL – 101

Joydeep Dutta, 2022
Factors affecting population growth (change)
• Change in birth rates
• Change in death rates
• Change due to migration
• Change in administrative city limits
• Change in job opportunities (economic)
Population Projection
• Population projections are calculations of future birth rate, death rate
and migration of population based on their past and present
conditions.
• Projection is an estimate, that is neither exactly a prediction or a forecast.
Forecast is short-term, projection is long-term.
• They merely indicate trends – they cannot predict exact figures
• Projections are purely formal calculations, largely dependent on the
assumptions based on which they are made, for specific scenarios.
• Methods of population projection can be broadly classified as:
• Mathematical methods
• Growth component method
• Economic method
Methods of Population Projection
• Mathematical Methods
1. Arithmetic Increase Method
2. Geometric Increase Method
3. Incremental Increase Method
4. Decrease Rate of Growth Method (or, Logistic S-Curve Method)
5. Simple Graphical Method
6. Graphical Comparison Method
• Growth Component Methods
• Cohort-component method
• Adds up separate projections made for birth rate, death rate, migration by age-sex groups
• Master Plan Method
• Assumes the planned pop density of different zones proposed in City Master Plan
• Economic Method
• Considers regional economic development factors to estimate employment, labour-migration,
etc.
1. Arithmetic Increase Method
• Assumption: Increase in population (per decade) is remaining constant
• Suitable for large and old cities, not for small or new cities
• Ideally require census data for 3 previous decades
• Average change in decadal growth is calculated and added to the following decades
• Pn = P0 + n.C (where, C = decadal pop change)
Year Population Decadal Projected Pop
change
1991 700
2001 900 200 Average
500/2 = 250
2011 1200 300
2021 (Projected) 1200+250 = 1450
2031 (Projected) 1200+(2*250) = 1700
2. Geometric Increase Method
• Assumption: Percentage increase in population is remaining constant
• Gives higher values – so ideal for new industrial towns at the beginning of
development, that is expected to grow relatively fast
• Ideally require census data for 3 previous decades
• Geometric mean of % decadal change is calculated & added to the following decades
• Pn = P0(1 + x/100)n (where, x = geometric mean%)
Year Population Decadal change Decadal % change Projected Population

1991 700
2001 900 200 200/700 = 0.28 Geometric Mean
2011 1200 300 300/900 = 0.33 (0.28 * 0.33)1/2 = 0.304

2021 (Projected) 1200 * (1+0.304)1 1565

2031 (Projected) 1200 * (1+0.304)2 2041
3. Incremental Increase Method
• The increase in population increase (growth increment) is considered for forecasting
• Suitable for average sized towns under normal growth conditions
• Ideally require census data for 3 previous decades
• Incremental increase is calculated and the average value is added to present pop
along with the average rate of increase
• Pn = P0 + n.X + [n(n+1)/2].Y (where, X = average increase; Y = incremental increase)
Year Population Decadal change Incremental Formula for Inc. Projected Pop
Increase Increase
1991 700
2001 900 200
2011 1200 300 100
2021 (Projected) (Ave inc. X=250) (Inc inc. Y=100) 1200 + (1*250) 1200+250+100
+ [(1*2/2)*100] = 1550
2031 (Projected) 1200 + (2*250) 1200+500+300
+ [(2*3/2)*100] = 2000
4. Logistic S-curve method
(also called Decrease Rate of Growth Method)

• This method considers that the growth rate of population increases until it
reaches a saturation point, and then starts decreasing after an inflexion point
• Assumption: Growth curve follows characteristics of living creatures
• When population growth due to births, deaths and migrations takes place under normal
situation and it is not subjected to any extraordinary changes (like epidemic, war,
earthquake or any natural disaster etc.) …
• the population follows the growth characteristics of living things within limited space
and economic opportunity
• It attempts to calculate the saturation population of a region
• If the population of a city is plotted with respect to time, the curve so
obtained under normal condition is look like S-shaped curve and is known as
Logistic-S curve.
4. Logistic S-curve method
(also called Decrease Rate of Growth Method)
• The curve shows an early growth JK
at an increasing rate i.e. geometric
growth or log growth
• The transitional middle curve KM
follows arithmetic increase
(inflexion at point L)
• And later growth MN the rate of
change of population is proportional
to difference between saturation
population and existing population
• Logistic S-curve can be represented
by a sophisticated mathematical
formula (proposed by Verhaulst)
5. Simple Graphical method
• The populations of last few decades
are plotted to a suitable scale on
graph and then smoothly extended to
obtain future population
• This method should be conducted
carefully and requires proper
experience and judgment
• Popular software and statistical
packages (e.g. SPSS) may be
effectively used for this method
• This is a relatively crude and ad-hoc
method for quick forecasts, and may
not be very accurate
6. Graphical Comparison method
• The census populations of cities
already developed under similar
conditions are plotted
• The curve of past population of the
city under consideration is plotted on
the same graph
• The curve is extended carefully by
comparing with the population curve
of the similar cities
• Advantage: Future population can be
predicted from the present
population even in the absence of
some of the past census data
7. Cohort Component method
• Cohort = a group of people sharing the same characteristic
• The population of a city is forecast by adding the 3 major components
of growth to the present population, i.e.
• present population
• Natural increase (births minus deaths)
• Migration (add or subtract
• This method is a relatively precise method, but it requires correct
sector-wise data to be available for the design forecast period
• Pn = P0 + IB – ID + Migration
where, IB = average birth rate / year
ID = average death rate / year
8. Master Plan method (or Zoning method)
• Big metropolitan cities are generally not developed in haphazard manner, but
are planned and regulated by local bodies according to master plan.
• The master plan is prepared for next 25 to 30 years – Vision plan, Perspective
Plan, Development Plan, etc.
• According to the master plan the city is divided into various land-use zones
such as residence, commerce and industry
• Proposed population densities are decided for each land-use zone
• From this population density, the total projected population for each zone
can be worked out
• It is easy to assess precisely the design population, but it may not turn out to
be realistic, since ground realities are often different from proposed plans.
9. Economic method
• Due to regional economic development (especially setting up of new
industries), people migrate from the backward areas to developed
areas in search of jobs
• The number of projected labourers (newly migrated) need to be
estimated – both rural & urban, age-wise and sex-wise
• Economic method of population projection considers various such
economic factors that actually have impact migration, as well as the
birth & death rates of migrant labourers
• Such changes increase urbanization, and consequently the growth of
towns, cities and urban centres
• This method is more useful for region-wise projections rather than for
the entire country
Thank you