THE POPULATION BOMB

Buku DR. Paul R. Ehrlich

Poin-Poin:

1. Population is a number game. Doubling times: the time necessary for the population
to double in size.
2. Telah diestimasi populasi manusia 8000 BC sekitar 5 million people (5juta), butuh
waktu kurang lebih 1 juta th untuk mencapai 2 dan setengah juta orang. Populasi tidak
mencapai 500juta sampai sekitar 1000juta tahun setelahnya, tahun 1650 AD. It
mencapai 1 milyar manusia pd th 1850, butuh waktu 200th. Hanya dlmwaktu 80 th
jumlah manusia brtambah mnj 2 milyar (1930). The doubling time at present seems to
be about 35 years.
3. Quite areduction in doubling times: 1.000.000 years, 1.000 years, 200years, 80 years,
35 years. If growth continued at that rate for 900 years, there would be some
60.000.000.000.000.000 people face of the earth. Sixty million billion people.
4. But you say, surely science will find a way for us to occupy the others planets of our
solar system. Fremlin has made some interesting calculations on how much time we
could buy by occupying the planets of the solar system. Butuh 50 th untuk populate
Venus, Mercury, Mars, the moon, and the moons of Jupiter and Saturn to the same
population density as Earth.
5. Ada 2 grup negara: 1 grup dengan laju pertambahan penduduk cepat dan 1 grup
dengan laju pertumbuhan penduduk lambat. Grup negara satu disebut
UnderDeveloped Countries (UDCs) are not industrialized, tend to have inefficient
agriculture, very small gross nasional product, high illiteracy rates (tingkat buta
huruf tinggi) and related problems. That’s what UDCs are technically, but a short
definition of underdeveloped is hungry. Most America Latin, Afrika, dan negara-
negara Asia fall into this category.
6. The secod grup consists of the OverDeveloped Countris (ODCs). ODCs are modern
industrial nations, such as US, Canada, Most European Countries, Israel, the USSR,
Japan dan Australia. They consume a disproportionate amount of the world’s
resources and are the major polluters. People in these countries are adequately
nourished.
7. Doubling times in the UDCs range around 20-35 tahun. Examples of these times
(from the 1970 figures released by the Population Reference Bureau) are: Kenya 23th,
Nigeria 27th, Turkey 26th, Indonesia 24th, Philippines 21th, Brazil 25th, Costa rica
19th, dan El Savador 21th. Rata-rata DT 25th.
8. Doubling times in the ODCs range around 50-to-200 years. Examples of these times
(1970) are: US 70 th, Austria 175th, Denmark 88th, Norway 78th, UK 140th, Poland
78th, Russia 70th, Italy 88th, Spain 70th dan Japan 63th. Ii adalah negara2 industri
that have undergone the so-called demographic transition--- a transition from high
to low growth rates. Seiring majunya perkembangan industri, anak menjadi kurang
penting untuk ortu as extra hands to work on the farm and as support in old age. At
the same time they became a financial drag --- expensive to raise and educate. Inilah
yang menjadi alasan lambatnya pertumbuhan populasi setelah industrialisasi. They
boil down to a simple fact --- people just wanted to have fewer children. Doubling
time nya ODCs adalah tiap 70th. Artinya bahwa Baik dengan atau tanpa transisi
demografi the world would still be faced by ctastrophic population growth. No
growth rate can be sustained in the long run.
9. Dengan kata lain ODCs have undergone a demographic transition thus does not mean
that they have no population problems. First of all, most of them are already
overpopulated. ---they are overpopulated by the simple criterion that they are not able
to produce enough food to feed their population. It is true that they have money to buy
food, but when food is no longer available for sale they will find the money rather
indigestible. Similarly, ODCs are overpopulated because the do not themselves have
the resources to support their afflauent societies; they must coopt much more than
their fair share of the world’s wealth of minerals and energy. Dan negara maju
overpopulasi karena menghabiskan kapasitas lingkungan mereka untuk membuang
limbah mereka.
10. Remember, overpopulasi tidak selalu berarti too many people for the area of the
country, but too many people in relation to the necessities (kebutuhan) dan amenities
(fasilitas/kenyamanan/kesenangan) of life. Overpopulation occurs when numbers
threaten values.
11. Solusi yang ditawarkan adalah membatasi jumlah kelahiran, untuk mengontrol
populasi. Jika tidak terpaksa meningkatkan angka kematian.
12. Too little food. Krisis pangan. Orang amerika beranggapan bahwa orang asia bisa
hidup dg bahagia karena setiap hari pasti ada semamngkok nasi. Luasnya padi
membuat mereka slow starvation, starvation hanya dapat terjadi di Americans.
13. Kematian atas nama kelaparan menjadi perdebatan serius. Ada 3 alasan, pertama data
statistik penduduk sering tidak lengkap dan unreliable. Kedua, orang yg kelaparan
mati tidak disebabkan krn kelapan, kerentanan fisik yg lemah mudah sakit. Ketiga,
starvation is undramatic, banyak kematian akibat kelaparan tp unnoticed, tdk tercatat.
14. Diera perang dunia kedua, produksi pangan di UDCs dapat memnuhi jumlah populasi
mereka. Tp th 1958 food got scarcer. Hukum ekonomi pasokan dan permintaan mulai
berperan. Harga makanan mulai naik. Lahan marginal mulai diladangkan.
15. A dying planet, pencemaran air tanah udara oleh pestisida DDT.
16. The end of the road. Too many people ---that is why we are on the verge of the death
rate solution.
17. Scenario I, scenario II, scenario III
18. What is being done. Family planning and other failures
19. Multiplying bread, banquet of life
20. Protecting our environment
21. What needs to be done?
22. Getting our house in order
23. Realism and international aid
24. The chances of success
25. What can you do?
26. Join ZPG Zero Population Growth
27. Write letters
28. Organize action groups
29. Positive reinforcement
30. Proslytize friends and asociates
31. What if Im wrong?
32. Appendix:letters urging action.
33. While youre reading this words four people, most of them children, will die of
starvation---and twenty-four more babies will have been born.
34. The right to eat,the right to drink pure water. The right to breathe clean air. The right
to decent, uncrowded shelter. The right to enjoy natural beauty.] the right to avoid
pesticide poisoning. The right to freedom from thermonuclear war. The right to limit
families. The right to have granchildren.