CITY COLLEGE OF SAN FERNANDO PAMPANGA

City of San Fernando, Pampanga

INSTITUTE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

Name: Date:
Year/Program/Section: BSIT – 2B Score:

Given Formula:

MAD=
∑ ¿ Forecast error ∨¿ ¿ MSE=
∑ (Error )2
MAPE=∑ ¿
Error ¿
∨ 100 % ¿
n n Actual n

Problem 1:
A manufacturing company produces a product that is sold in different regions with varying demand
patterns. The company wants to analyze the accuracy of its forecasting model for this product. To do so, they
collected historical sales data for the past 12 months from each region and each data will calculate the Mean
Absolute Deviation, Mean Squared Errors, and the Mean Absolute Percent Errors. The data is as follows:

Region A: Sales (in units) for the past 12 months:

[205, 210, 240, 200, 300, 210, 245, 320, 235, 340, 255, 280]
Region A: Forecasted Sales (in units) for next month:
[175]

Actual Sales of Absolute Value of Errors

Month Manufacturing Forecast Sales (Deviation)
Company | Actual – Forecast |
1 205 n/a
2 210 175
3 240
4 200
5 300
6 210
7 245
8 320
9 235
10 340
11 255
12 280
Sum of | errors | =
MAD =

Page | 1
 CITY COLLEGE OF SAN FERNANDO PAMPANGA
City of San Fernando, Pampanga
INSTITUTE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

Solution:

Region B: Sales (in units) for the past 12 months:

[180, 190, 200, 210, 220, 230, 240, 250, 260, 270, 280, 290]
Region B: Forecasted Sales (in units) for next month:
[205]

Actual Sales of Absolute Value of Errors

Month Manufacturing Forecast Sales (Deviation)
Company | Actual – Forecast |
1 180 n/a
2 190 205
3 200
4 210
5 220
6 230
7 240
8 250
9 260
10 270
11 280
12 290
Sum of | errors | =
MAD =

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 CITY COLLEGE OF SAN FERNANDO PAMPANGA
City of San Fernando, Pampanga
INSTITUTE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

Solution:

Region C: Sales (in units) for the past 12 months:

[195, 215, 235, 255, 275, 305, 335, 365, 395, 425, 455, 485]
Region C: Forecasted Sales (in units) for next month:
[195]

Actual Sales of Absolute Value of Errors

Month Manufacturing Forecast Sales (Deviation)
Company | Actual – Forecast |
1 195 n/a
2 215 195
3 235
4 255
5 275
6 305
7 335
8 365
9 395
10 425
11 455
12 485
Sum of | errors | =
MAD =

Page | 3
 CITY COLLEGE OF SAN FERNANDO PAMPANGA
City of San Fernando, Pampanga
INSTITUTE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

Solution:

Problem 2: Use the Region A data to make a 4-month moving average.

Actual Sales of
Month Manufacturing 4-Month Moving Average
Company
January 205
February 210
March 240
April 200
May 300
June 210
July 245
August 320
September 235
October 340
November 255
December 280
January n/a

Solution:

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