Risk Assessment

-
Assessing and understanding risk
and integrating risk management in
development planning
Roberto Rudari (roberto.rudari@cimafoundation.org)
CIMA Research Foundation
WMO expert for APFM
UNISDR - GAR responsible for GFM
OUTLINE
• Scope of Training
• Role of Risk Assessment in DRM
• Terms & Definitions
• Risk Assessment Process
• Risk Identification, Analysis, Evaluation
• Risk Mapping
Scope of Training
• Focus on the processes and methods of
risk assessment and mapping in the
prevention, preparedness and planning
Stages (FF Focus)
• Understanding the role o Risk Assessment
within the broader framework of disaster
risk management
• Understanding the importance of a multi-
hazard and multi-risk approach
 Scope of Risk Assessment
• provide a risk management instrument for disaster
management authorities, and also other policy-makers,
public interest groups, civil society organisations and other
public or private stakeholders involved or interested in the
management and reduction of disaster risks;

• contribute to the development of knowledge-based

disaster prevention policies at different levels of
government and among different policy competencies, as
national risk assessments involve the integration of risk
information from multiple sources;

• inform decisions on how to prioritise and allocate

investments in prevention, preparedness and
reconstruction measures;

• contribute to the raising of public awareness on disaster

prevention measures;
 Risk Assessment & DRM
• Risk assessment and mapping are the central components of a more
general process which identifies the capacities and resources
available to reduce the identified levels of risk, or the possible effects
of a disaster (capacity analysis), and considers the planning of appropriate
risk mitigation measures (capability planning), the monitoring and review
of hazards, risks, and vulnerabilities, as well as consultation and
communication of findings and results.
• When carried out at national level, disaster risk assessments and risk
management can become essential inputs for planning and policies in
a number of areas of public and private activity.
• Wide dissemination and awareness-raising are important steps to
further develop and fully integrate a risk prevention culture into sectoral
policies, which are often complex and involve many stakeholders
• Risk maps generate a level of transparency which can help engage all
interested actors in society
• Risk assessments deal with uncertainty and probabilities. These are
the necessary subjects of a rational debate about the level of risk a State,
may find acceptable when considering the costs of associated prevention
and mitigation measures
 Terms & Definitions
Defining HAZARD (the active part of risk equation)

• Hazard is a dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or

condition that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts,
property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic
disruption, or environmental damage. Comment: […] In technical settings,
hazards are described quantitatively by the likely frequency of occurrence
of different intensities for different areas, as determined from historical
data or scientific analysis. (UNISDR, 2009)
• Natural hazard: Natural process or phenomenon that may cause loss of
life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods
and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage.
Comment: Natural hazards are a sub-set of all hazards. The term is used
to describe actual hazard events as well as the latent hazard conditions
that may give rise to future events. Natural hazard events can be
characterized by their magnitude or intensity, speed of onset, duration,
and area of extent. (UNISDR, 2009)
• Technological hazard: A hazard originating from technological or
industrial conditions, including accidents, dangerous procedures,
infrastructure failures or specific human activities, that may cause loss of
life, injury, illness or other health impacts, property damage, loss of
livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental
damage. (UNISDR, 2009) Sources: UNISDR terminology, ISO 31000, ISO 31010
Terms & Definitions
Defining Exposure and Vulnerability (the passive part of risk equation)

• Exposure: People, property, systems, or other elements present in hazard

zones that are thereby subject to potential losses. (UNISDR, 2009)

• Vulnerability: The characteristics and circumstances of a community,

system or asset that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a
hazard. (UNISDR, 2009) In probabilistic/quantitative risk assessments the
term vulnerability expresses the part or percentage of Exposure that is
likely to be lost due to a certain hazard.

• Resilience: The ability of a system, community or society exposed to

hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of
a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through the
preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions.
(UNISDR, 2009)

Sources: UNISDR terminology, ISO 31000, ISO 31010

Terms & Definitions
Defining Consequences (the holistic nature of risk)

• Consequences are the negative effects of a disaster expressed in terms of human

impacts, economic and environmental impacts, and political/social impacts. (ISO
31010)
• Human impacts are defined as the quantitative measurement of the following
factors: number of deaths, number of severely injured or ill people, and number of
permanently displaced people. (EU guidelines)
• Economic and environmental impacts are the sum of the costs of cure or
healthcare, cost of immediate or longer-term emergency measures, costs of
restoration of buildings, public transport systems and infrastructure, property,
cultural heritage, etc., costs of environmental restoration and other environmental
costs (or environmental damage), costs of disruption of economic activity, value of
insurance pay-outs, indirect costs on the economy, indirect social costs, and other
direct and indirect costs, as relevant. (EU guidelines)
• Political/social impacts are usually rated on a semi-quantitative scale and may
include categories such as public outrage and anxiety, encroachment of the
territory, infringement of the international position, violation of the democratic
system, and social psychological impact, impact on public order and safety,
political implications, psychological implications, and damage to cultural assets,
and other factors considered important which cannot be measured in single units,
such as certain environmental damage. (EU guidelines)

Sources: UNISDR terminology, ISO 31000, ISO 31010

Terms & Definitions
Defining Risk (the different phases of facing risk)

• Risk is a combination of the consequences of an event (hazard) and the

associated likelihood/probability of its occurrence. (ISO 31010)
• Risk assessment is the overall process of risk identification, risk analysis,
and risk evaluation. (ISO 31010)
• Risk identification is the process of finding, recognizing and describing
risks. (ISO 31010)
• Risk analysis is the process to comprehend the nature of risk and to
determine the level of risk. (ISO 31010)
• Risk evaluation is the process of comparing the results of risk analysis
with risk criteria to determine whether the risk and/or its magnitude is
acceptable or tolerable. (ISO 31010)
• Risk criteria are the terms of reference against which the significance of a
risk is evaluated. (ISO 31010)

Sources: UNISDR terminology, ISO 31000, ISO 31010

Terms & Definitions
Defining multi-risk assessment (working with multiple risk sources)

• Hazard assessments determine the probability of occurrence of a certain

hazard of certain intensity.
• Multi-hazard assessments determine the likelihood of occurrence of
different hazards either occurring at the same time or shortly following
each other, because they are dependent from one another or because
they are caused by the same triggering event or hazard, or merely
threatening the same elements at risk (vulnerable/ exposed elements)
without chronological coincidence.
• Single-risk assessments determine the singular risk (i.e. likelihood and
consequences) of one particular hazard (e.g. flood) or one particular type
of hazard (e.g. flooding) occurring in a particular geographic area during a
given period of time.
• Multi-risk assessments determine the total risk from several hazards
either occurring at the same time or shortly following each other, because
they are dependent from one another or because they are caused by the
same triggering event or hazard; or merely threatening the same elements
at risk (vulnerable/ exposed elements) without chronological coincidence.
Sources: UNISDR terminology, ISO 31000, ISO 31010
Terms & Definitions
Mapping Risk (presenting the risk assessment)

• Hazard map is a map that portrays levels of probability of a

hazard occurring across a geographical area. Such maps can
focus on one hazard only or include several types of hazards
(multi-hazard map).
• Multi-hazard map is a map that portrays levels of probability
of several hazards occurring across a geographical area.
• Risk map is a map that portrays levels of risk across a
geographical area. Such maps can focus on one risk only or
include different types of risks.
• Risk scenario is a representation of one single-risk or multi-
risk situation leading to significant impacts, selected for the
purpose of assessing in more detail a particular type of risk
for which it is representative, or constitutes an informative
example or illustration.
Sources: UNISDR terminology, ISO 31000, ISO 31010
Risk Assessment Process
• Identification of a Coordinating authority

• Involvement: public authorities, research and businesses,

non-governmental organisations and the wider general public.

• Such actors in the RAP should:

– (a) agree on the scoring criteria at the start of the assessment process,
– (b) record the methods used and their level of uncertainty,
– (c) note the justification for including or excluding specific risks,
– (d) record the scores allocated to each risk and their justification,
– (e) devise a protocol for the use of expert opinion

Sources: EU Guidelines on RA
Risk Assessment Process
• Importance of public consultation

– Helps the recognition of the value of RA

– Prevents multiple initiatives that can pop up
notwithstanding the coordination action
– Improves awareness and perception

Sources: EU Guidelines on RA
Phases of Risk Assessment within RMP
Establish context
Communicate & Consult

Monitor & Review

Identify risks

Assess Risk
analyse risks

evaluate risks

treat risks

Sources: EU Guidelines on RA
DATA Collection
• Prior to any action proper data
collection is needed as a basis
for the whole process

• In order to focus on the right

data to collect it is necessary to
have a good understanding of
the different risks in terms of
– SOURCE,
– PATHWAYS,
– RECEPTORS,
– CONSEQUENCE
Risk identification

The purpose of the risk identification stage is to find and

recognize all likely hazards and significant consequences

Because of the inherent complexity, risk identification usually

involves the elaboration of scenarios of potential risk
situations, which condense the realm of possibilities to a
limited number of identified situations.

A Risk scenario is a representation of one single-risk or

multi-risk situation leading to significant impacts, selected
for the purpose of assessing in more detail a particular
type of risk for which it is representative, or constitutes an
informative example or illustration.
Single Risk Scenario (example)

ELEMENT GEOMETRY LAYER (example) Useful attribute RISK SCENARIO FIGURES

(example)

AREAL POPOLUATION CENSUS RESIDENT POPULATION N° EXPOSED PEOPLE

POLYGONS
LINEAR STREATS NAME, TYPE LOCATION, ELEMENT
CLASSIFICATION

RAYLWAYS NAME, TYPE LOCATION, ELEMENT

CLASSIFICATION

ELETRIC LINES & OTHER TYPE, PROPERTY ELEMENT CLASSIFICATION

LIFELINES

POINT SCHOOLS NAME, TYPE LOCATION, ELEMENT

CLASSIFICATION, EXPOSED
PEOPLE
HOSPITALS NAME LOCATION, ELEMENT
CLASSIFICATION, EXPOSED
PEOPLE
HIGHLY HAZARDOUS ACTIVITY TYPE, LOCATION, ELEMENT
INDUSTRIAL PLANTS SUBSTANCES CLASSIFICATION

AIRPORTS NAME, TYPE LOCATION, ELEMENT

CLASSIFICATION
RAYLWAY STATIONS NAME LOCATION
Single Risk Scenario (example)
Multi-Risk Scenario (Layering)
Multi-Risk Scenario (Layering)
Multi-Risk Scenario (Cascading)
Multi-Risk Scenario (Cascading)-Natech
Total mass of Gasoline in soil
Flood Scenario

Total mass of Gasoline in water

 Risk Scenarios building guidelines
• Context: National risk identifications
• Hazard level: consider at least all significant hazards of a intensity that
would on average occur once or more often in 100 years (i.e. all hazards
with a annual probability of 1% or more)
• Impacts: consider at least scenarios with consequences that represent
significant potential impacts, e.g. number of affected people greater than
50, economic and environmental costs above € 100 million, and
political/social impact considered significant or very serious (level 4).
• High Impact extremes: Where the likely impacts exceed a threshold of
0.6% of gross national income (GNI) also less likely hazards or risk
scenarios should be considered (e.g. volcanic eruptions, tsunamis).
• If the likelihood of a hazard leading to impacts exceeding the above
threshold is more than one in ten years, at least three scenarios with at
least three different intensities should be included in the assessment.
• Temporal horizon: at first the risk identification process should consider
risks that may appear in the immediate future, i.e. one to five years
ahead
• More advanced studies should look also to emerging behaviors (CC
perspective) and risks (development, demography)
From Risk identification to Risk Analysis

Scenarios must be devised

Identify Risk
in the most inclusive way
and may refer to rough
estimates or qualitative
analysis

RISK SCENARIOS

Scenarios must be
Analyse Risk

expressed AMAP in
quantitative terms and
characterized in terms of
probabilities
Risk Analysis - Scope

The purpose of the Risk analysis is to comprehend the nature of risk and
to determine the level of risk. For every risk and risk scenario identified
in the previous risk identification stage, the risk analysis process
carries out a detailed (and if possible quantitative) estimation of the
probability of its occurrence and the severity of the potential
impacts.

The assessment of the probability of an event or hazard should be based,

where possible, on the historical frequency of events of similar scale
and available statistical data relevant for an analysis of the main
drivers, which can help to pick up on accelerating trends, e.g. due to
climate change.

The assessment of the level of impact should be in quantitative terms

Risk Analysis - Phases
Hazard analysis
• (a) Geographical analysis (location, extent)
• (b) Temporal analysis (frequency, duration, etc.)
• (c) Dimensional analysis (scale, intensity)
• (d) Probability of occurrence

Vulnerability analysis
• (a) Identification of elements and people potentially at risk
(exposure)
• (b) Identification of vulnerability factors/ impacts (physical,
economic, environmental, social/political)
• (c) Assessment of likely impacts
• (d) Analysis of self-protection capabilities reducing exposure or
• vulnerability
Risk Analysis – Hazard Analysis
Mapping the underlying causes and processes
Risk Analysis – Hazard Analysis
Hazard analysis - The use of Hazard matrices

T<20 yrs 20<T<50 yrs 50<T<200 yrs 200<T<500 yrs

 PRELIMINARY STUDY – Basin Scale
Data Collection and Analysis: Reference
Database
Identification of High Risk Areas and Priority
Intervention Plan

FLOOD RISK MAP PRODUCTION – Detailed Scale

DTM acquisition / ex-novo production
Ground surveys
Hazard Maps production
Hydrological models application
Hydraulic models application
Hazard mapping
Risk maps evaluation and production
Vulnerability assessment
Damage evaluation
 ESSENTIAL DATA

DTM production methodologies:

1. SRTM-X+ERS
Spatial Spacing: 30m-
Zeta accuracy: 3m abs error 90%
x,y accuracy: 23m

2. SPOT IMAGES
Spatial Spacing: 20m-
zeta accuracy: 15/20m abs error 90%
x,y accuracy:15m

4. LASER SCANNER
Spatial Spacing: 5m-
zeta accuracy: 30 cm abs error 90%
x,y accuracy: 100 cm
 ESSENTIAL DATA

NECESSARY THEMATIC MAPS – BASIN

SCALE

1. LandUse map – alternative solutions:

 CORINE 2004 - scale 1:100.000
 Remote Sensing 2006 – scale 1:50.000
 Orthophotos – higher detail

2. Geological map:
 available sources

3. Permeability map:
 Expert mapping
 ESSENTIAL DATA

CARTOGRAPHIC MAPS – BASIN

SCALE

1. Administrative limits

2. Topographic Maps

3. Anthropic and Cadastral items map:

– High definition Laser scanner and ortophotos along

flooding areas
 ESSENTIAL DATA

TABELLAR DATA – BASIN SCALE

1. Pluviometric data

2. Hydrometric data

3. Historical data on past floods (flood

levels, flood mapping, newspaper data…)
 FLOOD RISKS MAP PRODUCTION – Detailed Scale

DTM from Laser Scanner Methodologies for

the Identified High Risk areas along river
bed and flooding areas is imposing itself as
the best balance between cost & benefit

Products:
1. DTM
2. DSM
3. Infrastructures Mapping
4. Anthropic Items Mapping
5. Ortophotos
6. Bathymetric survey and cross sections
 HAZARD MAPPING

HAZARD MAPPING Hazard map for the Centa River Basin

Objective:
Hazard mapping over the
territory
Needs:
• Data for a good statistical
estimation  Hydrological
Parameters Regionalization;
• Suitable models  state-of-
the-art results;
• Experience on the analysed
territory.
Small / Medium Catchments HAZARD MAPPING

HYDROLOGICAL MODELING
Rainfall growth Discharge Hydrograph with
Design ietograph Semi-distributed
curve growth curve assigned return period
R/R model Liguria Region 0.04

8
Regional D5
TCEV 0.035
0.999
0.998
6 0.03 D8

Gumbel Reduced Variable

0.995
Simulated Discharge
0.99 0.025

Frequency
4 0.98
Confidence interval (95%) D10
0.95 0.02 D11
0.90 D14
2
0.80 0.015
D15

0.50 0.01
0 D17

0.005
-2
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 0
Simulated Discharge for given T/ Simulated Discharge for T = 2.9 years 0 30000 60000 90000

Time [s]

HYDRAULIC MODELING
Cross-section description Hydraulic profile evolution
Varatel l o P l an: i scm l c
Modello R oja 3 - R OIA T500 Plan: Plan 04 L eg en d
Geom: PON TI 70
R S = 2.56675* WS PF 3

135 60 WS PF 2
L eg en d
C ri t PF 3

Elevation (m)
130 WS 2 Q500
50 C ri t PF 2
WS1 Q200
Elevation (m)

125 WS PF 1
WS T50 Q50
120
40 C ri t PF 1
Ground
Bank Sta Ground
115
30 LOB
110
R OB
20
105 0 200 400 600 800
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Stati on (m) Main Channel Distance (m)

HAZARD MAPPING
Flooding areas Hazard maps Hydraulic level Vulnerability Vulnerability maps
determination determination maps curves determination
SOGLIA di PERICOLOSITA' RELATIVA

I method 1.00
0.90
alta
S , N/m
0.80 1500

Tirante Idrico, m
pericolosità
0.70
relativa 2500
0.60
0.50 Stabilità
0.40 Umana

II method 0.30
0.20
bassa
pericolosità
0.10
relativa
0.00
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
2 0/000 Pendenza, %

III method 6 0/000 1 0/00 6 0/00

Flood plain inundation MODELLING HAZARD MAPPING
Inundation simulation – simplified methods
Topographic method
Topographic method
application
Blue is the flooded area from
historical data
Green-Red is the flooded area
obtained from topographic
method for different return
periods
Flood plain inundation MODELLING HAZARD MAPPING
Inundation simulation – simplified methods
Topologic method
Topologic method
application
Blue is the flooded area from
historical data
Green-Red is the flooded area
obtained from topologic
method for different return
periods
Better agreement
Flood plain inundation MODELLING HAZARD MAPPING
DIRECT Flood plain modeling with high resolution DTM
FLOOD PLAIN
CHANNELS

FLOODED AREAS
LINK
CHANNELS

MAIN CHANNEL &

TRIBUTARY
Flood plain inundation MODELLING HAZARD MAPPING

DIRECT Flood plain

modeling with high
resolution DTM:
e.g., Quasi 2-D approach

An application in
urban areas
Flood plain inundation MODELLING HAZARD MAPPING
DIRECT Flood plain modeling with high resolution DTM
Time development of the flood:
Floodwater depth [m]
Flood plain inundation MODELLING HAZARD MAPPING
DIRECT Flood plain modeling with high resolution DTM
Validation event: Albenga, November 1994
Flooded area comparison
Flood plain inundation MODELLING HAZARD MAPPING
DIRECT Flood plain modeling with high resolution DTM

Soft data check

points:
Good agreement
Foodwater depth [m]
Map of maximum

with reality
Flood plain inundation MODELLING HAZARD MAPPING
Validation with Soft data: historical hydraulic levels

Point 3
Point 2

Point 4
Flood plain inundation MODELLING HAZARD MAPPING
DIRECT Flood plain modeling with high resolution DTM
Soft data
validation:
Paleo-river
floodwater velocities [m s-1]
Map of maximum
Flood plain inundation MODELLING HAZARD MAPPING
DIRECT Flood plain modeling with high resolution DSM
Multi-Hazard maps
 Risk Analysis – Vulnerability Analysis

Physical Vulnerability Social Vulnerability

Holistic approach to
Vulnerability

V = f(E, EI, S)
E represent a vector of element-at-risk indicators,
EI of exposure indicators
S of susceptibility indicators
 Risk Analysis – Vulnerability Analysis
IDENTIFICATION OF ELEMENTS
TYPE
AT RISK & EXPOSURE ID

CHARACTERIZATION
MAP

NAME
Residential buildings COORDINATES
Health Structures QUOTA
HEIGHT
Museums FLOORS NUMBER

Public buildings BASEMENT

Number of entries Side Position Note
Schools TYPE ENTRY
ID
Receptive structures (Hotels) TYPE OF INFRASTRUCTURE
Form Width Lenght Plan

Point Scale Receptive structures (Campsites) DIMENSION

Commercial structures MAP

Industrial plants VOLUME

NAME AREA OCCUPIED
Religious buildings
COORDINATES
PROXIMITY TO RIVER/COASTStart End
Livestock facilities LENGHT
MATERIALS
ELEVATION
Puntual Infrastructures LANDAGE
MATERIALUSE
ID NUMBER
AVERAGE SLOPEOF PEOPLE CONTEINED
Sports facilities OTHER INFORMATION
CONNECTIONS (Description, images, ...)
SIGNIFICANCE
MAP CONTENT
Linear Scale Linear infrastructures
GENERAL DESCRIPTION
DANGEROUS MATERIALS
Areal Scale Land Use OTHERINFLUENCE
NAME
INFORMATION
AREA
COORDINATES
QUOTA
AREA OCCUPIED
PROXIMITY TO RIVER/COAST
GENERAL DESCRIPTION
ACCESSIBILITY
OTHER INFORMATION (Description, images, ...)
Risk Analysis – Vulnerability Analysis
SUSCETPTIVITY INDICATORS – VULNERABILITY FUNCTIONS

Vulnerability curves for point scale

100
90 Residential buildings
80
Museums
70 Vulnerability curve for linear
Damage [%]

60 Health structures
50 infrastructures
Hotels
40 100 Commercial structures
30 90 Industrial structures
20 80 Camping
10
70
Vulnerability functions at areal scale
Public buildings
Damage [%]

0 100
0 1 2 60 3 4 5 Sports facilities Continous urban
50depth [m] 90
water tissue
40 80

30 70 Discontinuous urban
Damage [%]

60 tissue
20
50
10 industrial-commercial
40 build
0
0 30
1 2 3 4 5
20 water depth [m] Crops
10
0 vineyards, olive
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 groves, orchards
Water depth [m]
 Risk Analysis – Vulnerability Analysis
SUSCETPTIVITY INDICATORS – LOCAL SCALE FUNCTIONS MODIFICATION

Vulnerability function for different type of

80 100
residential buildings
Vulnerability curve for residential
70 90
100
60 90
buildings
80
90 70 Generic residential
80
Damage [%]

building

Damage [%]
50
80 60
70
40 50
[%] [%]

70
60 Residential building
30 40
Damage

60
50 type A
30
20 50
Damage

40
20
10 40
30 Residential building
10
30
20 type B
0 0
0 0.5 1 1.5 20
10 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
Water
100 depth [m] Water depth [m]
0 1 2 3 4
0
0 0.5 1 Water1.5
depth [m]
2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
Water depth [m]

BUILDING A: BUILDING B:
No Underground floors 1 Underground Floor
Entrance super elevation 0,6 m Entrance at street level
Building Height 6 m Building Height 4 m
DATA Collection
• To develop/validate
vulnerability curve loss
data are needed

• Losses can be derived

for different sectors
and they are of
different nature
Risk Analysis – Vulnerability Analysis
SUSCETPTIVITY INDICATORS – the Concept of Residual Functionality

RESIDUAL FUNCTIONALITY HIGH 0,7-1 RESIDUAL FUNCTIONALITY MEDIUM 0,4-0,7 RESIDUAL FUNCTIONALITY LOW 0,0-0,4

The building is mainly accessible by

The building is accessible. The The building is
emergency staff. Not all entrances
SINGLE ELEMENT entrances are available.It's not not accessible. All entrances are
are available. It's not recommended to
recommended to use the elevator. unreachable.
use the elevator.

Presence of small floods. The road is

Road partially flooded. The road Road closed. The infrastructure is
practicable by all vehicles. It is not
LINEAR SCALE is accessible only by emergency destroyed, flooded or blocked
recommended transit for pedestrians
vehicles.Possibility of landslides. by debris.
and two-wheeled vehicles.

Completely flooded area. The

The area is accessible to Partially flooded area. Permitted
AREAL SCALE main accesses and buildings
all. Presence of localized flooding. access only to emergency vehicles.
are unreachable.

- (Studi progetto inter.reg. Ge.Ri.A – modificato)

Risk Analysis – Vulnerability Analysis
SUSCETPTIVITY INDICATORS – the Concept of Residual Functionality

Residual functionality curves for point scale

1
Schools, museums,
Residual functionality [%]

0.9 public buildings,..

0.8
0.7 Residential buildings,
hotel, commercial
0.6 structures
0.5 Health structures
0.4 Vehicle Description

0.3 Residual functionality curve for linear

Camping UCL- Local Control Unit: this vehicle is used in
national mobile columns for natural disasters.

0.2 scale
It can be used with maximum water depth of
1 0,3 meters.

0.1 0.9
Residual functionality

0 0.8 Industrial plants

0 1 0.7 2 3 4 4x4 Vehicle: this vehicle can be used with a
maximum water depth of 0,5 meters.

0.6Water depth [m]

0.5
0.4
0.3
Residual finctionality curve for areal "Polisoccorso logistico": this vehicle is similar
to the emergency vehicle, but has also

scale (urban and commercial areas)

logistical equipment that allow it to be used in

0.2 particular in the initial period of calamity as it

allow the team to operate independently from
central logistics base of the mobile column. It

0.1 1 can be used with maximum water depth of 0,5

meters.
Residual functionality

0 0.9
0 0.5 1 1.5 0.8 2 2.5 3
0.7
Water depth [m]
0.6 Amphibious vehicle: it is used in case of
natural disasters for the rescue of people and
things in areas affected by flooding, or where
0.5 the water level does not allow the transit of
earth vehicles.

0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Water depth [m]
Risk Analysis –
Vulnerability Analysis
SUSCETPTIVITY INDICATORS – the Concept
of Residual Functionality
Risk Analysis – Vulnerability Analysis
SUSCETPTIVITY INDICATORS – the Concept of System Vulnerability

Prefecture

School School
Risk Analysis
MERGING HAZARD AND VULNERABILITY INTO RISK – RISK MATRIX
From HAZARD to RISK
Summarizing Risk Identification & Analysis
Risk Assessment – Risk Evaluation
Risk evaluation is the process of comparing the
results of risk analysis with risk criteria to
determine whether the risk and/or its magnitude
is acceptable or tolerable.
Risk criteria are the terms of reference against
which the significance of a risk is evaluated. The
risk criteria may include associated costs and
benefits, legal requirements, socioeconomic and
environmental factors, concerns of
stakeholders,etc.
Risk evaluation is used to make decisions about
the significance of risks whether each specific
risk should be accepted or treated.
Risk Assessment
MITIGATION MEASURES ARE PRIORITIZED ON THE BASIS OF THE RISK
ASSESSMENT WICH THEI MODIFY IN TURN
Risk Assessment
Residual Risk after permanent risk mitigation measures
Intervention on
the Vulnerability
Intervention on the
Flood area before the e.g: Planning
intervention
Hazard e.g.: rules for the use
Hydraulic of ground and
intervention underground
improving river
defenses e.g.: electric control
board relocation

Intervention on the
Exposed e.g.:
Delocalization of
Flood area buildings from hi-
Area inondabile
Three-years intervention after the
dopo l‘intervento risk areas
intervention
programs; Risk Reduction
Plans

The Residual Risk is the result of planning and

permanent risk mitigation actions

Residual Risk (RR) must be faced, if it realizes, with real time

intervention by Civil Protection
Uff. Previsione e Prevenzione
Risk Assessment
A simple example of Residual Risk

Very low probabilities

of rare events remain –
Civil Protection
warnings, insurance

T=200 yrs

T=50 yrs

Residual
Risk

High vulnerability to Very

Local defense measure
frequent inundation
against flooding to
(T=5-10 years)
reduce the inidation
frequency
Risk Assessment
Real-Time Residual Risk management

Intervention on the
Hazard e.g.: Contrast Intervention on Vulnerability
and urgent intervention e.g.: Activation of specific
(Sand Sacks) action in civil Protection /
Emergency Plans

Intervention on Exposed
elements e.g.: Aid to
population, delocalization
of people and goods.

The system is usually focused on human lives, but at the same time it can act as a loss
reduction measure effectively.
FF Risk reduction Strategies
Phases of Risk Assessment within RMP
Establish context
Communicate & Consult

Monitor & Review

Identify risks

analyse risks Assess Risk

evaluate risks

treat risks
Sources: EU Guidelines on RA
 EWS in Flash floods
NWP No NWP
Space Lmet / Lhydro

Multi Basin

Single Basin

Stochastic
Reliable

Deterministic
Unreliable

Time Tc / Ts

Siccardi et al., JGR, 2005

 Q (m^3/s)

1000
1500
2000
2500
3000

0
500
1-ot t -96

3-ot t -96

5-ot t -96

7-ot t -96

9-ot t -96

11-ot t -96

13-ot t -96

15-ot t -96

17-ot t -96

19-ot t -96

21-ot t -96

23-ot t -96

25-ot t -96

27-ot t -96

29-ot t -96

31-ot t -96

Predicted Hydrograph
2-nov-96

2HM
Observations Datasets
Flood forecasting (No NWP)
 Q (m^3/s)

1000
1500
2000
2500
3000

0
500
1-ot t -96

3-ot t -96

5-ot t -96

7-ot t -96

9-ot t -96

11-ot t -96

13-ot t -96

15-ot t -96

17-ot t -96

19-ot t -96

21-ot t -96

23-ot t -96

25-ot t -96

27-ot t -96

29-ot t -96

Data Assimilation
31-ot t -96

Predicted Hydrograph
2-nov-96
GCM

Datasets

2HM
Observations
LAM
Flood forecasting (NWP Deterministic)
 Flood forecasting (NWP Stochastic)
EPS LEPS

Probability
Re-weighting

Observations
Datasets

Data Assimilation
Parameter Set
Peak discharge CDF

2HM
Downscaling
Predicted Hydrographs
 Flood forecasting (NWP Stochastic MB)
EPS LEPS

Probability
Re-weighting

Observations
Datasets

Data Assimilation
Parameter Set
Dimensionless Peak discharge CDF

HD
Downscaling
Predicted Hydrographs
Communicating Risk Assessment
The importance of Risk maps

• Use scales of visualization and analysis coherent with

the information
• Use coherent symbols
• Use coherent color coding throughout the whole Risk
Assessment Process and Risk Management as well
• Link graphical choices with actions and priorities
• Map the different elements of risk assessment
separately and the mix them together with increasing
level of complexity
• The map is not a figure, the map tells the story of a
risk scenario that triggers actions
 RT STATION OBSERVATIONS

AMC DA

NWP

HAVING IT ALL
TOGETHER: INPUTS
TEMPERATURE

RAINFALL

SWE

HAVING IT ALL
TOGETHER:
DATA SPATIALIZATION
METHODS
STREAM FLOW FORECASTS

FLOOD WAVE MONITORING

HAVING IT ALL
TOGETHER:
FORECASTS &
MONITORING
Building Risk Scenarios
HAVING IT ALL INTEROPERABILITY
TOGETHER:
ELEMENTS at RISK
& VULNERABILITY

Model Forecasts

RT STATIONS

Historic Floods -
UPDATE

Risk Assessment
Elements at Risk
Web-GIS & PGIS
for data collection
Monitoring & updating Risk using: satellite data,
alternative data,
Interoperable data
 UME SCHOOL
www.umeschool.it
ROSE Program
REM Program
WRR Program