INTRODUCTION TO LOGIC AND REASONING

LEDU – 2104
LESSON TWELVE
MAKING SOUND DECISIONS
The decision-making process is frequently stressful. Decision making costs sleepless nights,
loss of appetite (or excessive eating), irritability, and generalized feelings of anxiety. One way
to cope with the stress of decision making is to avoid making decisions whenever possible.
Although avoidance is one way of handling stressful decisions, it is seldom a good way. Every
time you find yourself avoiding a decision, remember that, in most cases, avoiding a decision
is, in fact, making one without any of the benefits of a carefully thought-out consideration of
the problem.
A Framework for Decision Making
There is a common model or framework that can be used to organize our thinking about
decision making.
Sometimes, the term "decision making" is used when the task requires the decision maker to
select the best alternative from among several possibilities, and the term problem solving is
used when the task requires the problem solver to generate alternatives.

Decisions also involve uncertainty because we cannot know in advance the consequences of
our actions. Much of the difficulty when making decisions lies in judging which alternative is
most likely to turn out best. Decisions usually have to be made with missing information and
involve guesses and predictions about future events. It is also a recursive or recycling process
because the nature of the decision may change as more alternatives are generated and evaluated.
All of these processes occur in a context that influences what happens and relies heavily on the
information you bring with you to the decision and the information that you obtain during the
decision-making process.
Good Decisions and Subjective Utility
Decision making is an active process. The decision maker takes responsibility for her or his
own future. Critical thinking was defined as the use of those skills or strategies that increase
the probability of a desirable outcome. But, the quality of a decision needs to be judged on
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the basis of what was known or should have been known at the time the decision was made;
sometimes, good decisions will have undesirable outcomes and sometimes poor decisions
will have good outcomes. Before a decision can be made, the individual must realize that a
decision is needed and that there are several possible alternatives. The objective criterion for
a good decision is that it has high subjective utility for the person making the decision.
PITFALLS AND PRATFALLS IN DECISION MAKING
A pitfall is a danger or difficulty that is not easily avoided and pratfall means the collapse
situation. Let's examine some of the common fallacies or pitfalls in decision making and their
list is given below:
1. Failure to Seek Disconfirming Evidence
2. Overconfidence
3. Availability Heuristic
4. Representativeness Heuristic
5. Wishful Thinking (Pollyanna Principle)
6. Entrapment
7. Psychological Reactance
8. Mere Exposure Effect
9. Emotional States
10. Mindlessness