US-Russian Cold War in Libya

‫رؤى أبعاد‬

DSS Views

‫فراس فحام‬

Firas Fahham

In recent weeks, the Libyan scene has been dominated by what

resembles a Cold War between the United States and Russia, which
can be said to have started years ago. However, it has gradually
intensified after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the rising tension
between the West, led by Washington, and Russia.

In the most telling expression of American interest in the Libyan issue,

the Biden administration included Libya in its ten-year plan for
stabilizing conflict zones in March 2023. The American administration's
vision for a solution in Libya focuses on establishing stability, enhancing
accountability, and promoting governance.

The Biden administration has motivations behind its significant interest in

Libya. It is keen on enhancing global and specifically European energy
security and providing a viable and suitable alternative to sustainably
replace Libyan oil and gas.

In October 2022, the seismic survey results conducted by the Sirte Oil &
Gas Production and Manufacturing Company for the Ghadames and
Sirte basins showed promising outcomes. Industrialized countries,
especially those in Europe and Turkey, are looking to the Sirte basin to
benefit from it in bolstering their energy security.
For its part, Russia capitalized on the support it provided to Khalifa
Haftar, reaping in return the ability to spread its influence in significant
oil and gas fields in eastern and southern Libya. Since before its
invasion of Ukraine, Russia has been working to bolster its influence in
the Mediterranean basin to prevent the emergence of competitors in the
energy markets and to impose partnerships on the countries of the
basin. This ensures Moscow's significant influence on any energy line
that would be extended across the Mediterranean to Europe. Moreover,
Russia views Libya - especially the Al-Jufra airbase - as a crucial
foothold for its influence in North Africa.

Recently, American efforts have focused on ending the political division

in Libya and conducting presidential and parliamentary elections that
would produce a new authority. This is in preparation for unifying the
military institution capable of forcing all foreign militias to exit the
country. This has been the main focus of meetings between American
officials and leaders from eastern and western Libya over the past
months. In response, Russia counters the American moves by elevating
its relationship with eastern Libya to an official level, having previously
relied on the Wagner militia. Additionally, Russia is establishing
communication bridges with influential powers in western Libya to thwart
American attempts aimed at containing Russian influence in Libya.

It is expected that Washington's plans in Libya will face challenges, the

most notable being the growing coordination between influential regional
powers in the scenario, such as Egypt and Turkey, with the Russians.
At the same time, the Biden administration's relations with Ankara and
Cairo are marred by disputes over multiple issues that extend beyond
the Libyan geography. However, this doesn't mean that the active
regional powers are leaning towards joint action with Russia; because
both Turkey and Egypt are uneasy with the idea of Russian dominance
over the energy file in the Sirte basin. Consequently, the door will
remain open for further developments that might escalate tensions
between Libyan parties with the support of external actors.