Probability (2)

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 4.3 Multiplication Rules

Independent events

Two events A and B are independent events if

the fact that A occurs does not affect the
probability of B occurring.
Multiplication Rule 1
When two event are independent ,the probability of both occuringis
P  A and B   P  A   P  B 

Bluman, Chapter 4 2
 Example: Tossing a Coin
A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability
of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on the die.

Independent Events
P  Head and 4   P  Head   P  4 
1 1 1
  
2 6 12
This problem could be solved using sample space.
S={H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6}
1
P  Head and 4  
12
Bluman, Chapter 4 3
Example Drawing a Card.
A card is drawn from a deck and replaced; then a second
card is drawn. Find the probability of getting a queen and
then an ace.
Solution:
4
Let A is the event of getting a queen  P  A  
52 4
Let B is the event of getting an ace  P A  
52
Since A and B are independent events,
then
P(of getting a queen and then an ace)=P(A and B) =P(A).P(B)
4 4 1 1 1
 .  . 
52 52 13 13 169
Example 4–25 Selecting a Colored Ball. Page 212
An urn contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls, and 5 white balls. A
ball is selected and its color noted. Then it is replaced. A
second ball is selected and its color noted. Find the
probability of each of these.
a. Selecting 2 blue balls
b. Selecting 1 blue ball and then 1 white ball
c. Selecting 1 red ball and then 1 blue ball
Solution: 2 2 4 1
a. P(blue and blue) =P(blue) P(blue)  .  
10 10 100 25
2 5 10 1
b. P(blue and white) = P(blue) P(white)  .  
10 10 100 10
3 2 6 3
c. P(red and blue) = P(red) P(blue)  .  
10 10 100 50
 dependent events.
• When the outcome or occurrence of the first event affects the
outcome or occurrence of the second event in such a way that the
probability is changed, the events are said to be dependent events.
• Example:
1- Drawing a card from a deck, not replacing it, and then drawing a
second card
2- Selecting a ball from an urn, not replacing it, and then selecting a
second ball.
3- Having high grades and getting a scholarship.
Multiplication Rule 2
When two event are dependent ,theprobability of both occuringis
P  A and B   P  A   P  B \ A 
EXAMPLE
Three cards are drawn from an ordinary deck and not replaced. Find the
probability of these events.
a. Getting 3 jacks b. Getting an ace, a king, and a queen in order
c. Getting a club, a spade, and a heart in order d. Getting 3 clubs

Solution

Exercise: Resolve the examples 4-24 and 4-25 in the case no replacing
 4.3 Conditional Probability
Conditional probability is the
probability that
the second event B occurs given that the first
event A has occurred.

Conditional Probability
P  A and B 
P  B A 
P  A

Bluman, Chapter 4 8
 Example: Women in the Military
A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought women
in the armed forces should be permitted to participate in
combat. The results of the survey are shown.

Bluman, Chapter 4 9
 Example 4-34: Women in the Military
a. Find the probability that the respondent answered yes (Y),
given that the respondent was a female (F).

8

PFa
ndY
YF PF 50  50  25
1
00 8 4
P

1
00
Bluman, Chapter 4 10
 Example 4-34: Women in the Military
b. Find the probability that the respondent was a male (M),
given that the respondent answered no (N).

18

PNa
ndM
M PN 6 1
00 18 3
P N  
 0 60 10
1
00
Bluman, Chapter 4 11
 Factorial
 Factorial is
the product of all the positive
numbers from 1 to a number.

n !  n  n  1 n  2   3  2 1
0!  1
 Permutation

 Permutation is an arrangement of objects in a

specific order. Order matters.
n!
n Pr   n  n  1 n  2   n  r  1
 n  r !
r items

Bluman, Chapter 4 13
 Combination
Combination is a grouping of objects. Order
does not matter.
n! n Pr
C  
n r
 n  r  !r ! r !

Bluman, Chapter 4 14
 Exercises
1-If 2 cards are selected from a standard deck of
52 cards without replacement, find these
probabilities.
• a. Both are spades.
• b. Both are the same suit.
• c. Both are kings
2-Four cards are drawn from a deck. Find these
probabilities.
a. All are kings.
b. All are diamonds.
c. All are red cards.
In the two cases :
1-With replacement 2- Without replacement