October

3rd IFAC19-21, 2016.on

Workshop Biarritz,
AdvancedFrance
Maintenance Engineering, Service and Technology
3rd IFAC Workshop on Advanced Maintenance Engineering, Service and Technology
October
3rd IFAC19-21, 2016.on
Workshop Biarritz,
AdvancedFrance
Maintenance Engineering, Service and Technology
October
3rd IFAC19-21, 2016.on
Workshop Biarritz,
AdvancedFrance
Maintenance Engineering, Service and Technology
October 19-21, 2016. Biarritz, France Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
October 19-21, 2016. Biarritz, France

ScienceDirect
Preventive Maintenance of Critical Assets
IFAC-PapersOnLine based
49-28 (2016) 097–102on Degradation Mechanisms and
Preventive
Preventive Maintenance
Maintenance of
of Critical
Critical Assets
Assets
Failure based
based
Forecast on
on Degradation
Degradation Mechanisms
Mechanisms and
and
Preventive Maintenance of Critical
Preventive Maintenance of Critical Assets
Assets
Failure based
based
Forecast on
on Degradation
Degradation Mechanisms
Mechanisms and
and
Failure
Failure Forecast
Forecast
Failure
Sobral, Forecast
J.*. C. Guedes Soares**
Sobral, J.*. C. 
Guedes Soares**
Sobral, J.*. C. Guedes Soares**
Sobral, J.*. C. 
Guedes Soares**
* Mechanical Engineering Department, ISEL Sobral,
– InstitutoJ.*. C. 
Guedes
Superior deSoares**
Engenharia de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal (Tel: +351

* Mechanical Engineering Department, ISEL
218317013; – Instituto
e-mail: 
Superior de Engenharia
jsobral@dem.isel.ipl.pt) de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal (Tel: +351
*
* Mechanical
Mechanical Engineering
Engineering Department,
Department, ISEL
ISEL –– Instituto
Instituto Superior
Superior de
de Engenharia de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal (Tel: +351
* Mechanical Engineering Department, 218317013;
ISEL – Instituto
218317013; e-mail:
e-mail: de Engenharia de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal (Tel: +351
Engenharia
jsobral@dem.isel.ipl.pt)
Superior
jsobral@dem.isel.ipl.pt)
de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal (Tel: +351
218317013;
218317013; e-mail:
e-mail: jsobral@dem.isel.ipl.pt)
jsobral@dem.isel.ipl.pt)
* Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean Engineering (CENTEC), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av.
**
*
Centre for
Centre
Centre
for Marine
for
Marine Technology
Marine
Technology and
Technology
and Ocean
and
Ocean
Ocean
Engineering
Rovisco
Engineering
Engineering
(CENTEC),
Pais, 1049-001
(CENTEC),
(CENTEC),
Instituto
Lisboa,
Instituto
Instituto
Superior Técnico,
Portugal.
Superior
Superior
Técnico, Universidade
Técnico,
Universidade de
Universidade
de Lisboa,
de
Lisboa, Av.
Lisboa,
Av.
Av.
** Centre for Marine Technology
* Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean and Ocean Rovisco
Engineering
Engineering
Rovisco Pais,
Pais, 1049-001
(CENTEC),
(CENTEC),
1049-001 Lisboa,
Instituto
Lisboa, Portugal.
Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade
Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av.
Portugal. de Lisboa, Av.
** Centre for MarineRovisco Technology
Pais, and
1049-001 Ocean Rovisco
Lisboa,Engineering
Rovisco Pais,
Portugal 1049-001
(CENTEC), Lisboa, Portugal.
Instituto Superior
(e-mail:c.guedes.soares@centec.tecnico.ulisboa.pt)
Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal. Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av.
**
** Centre
Centre for
for Marine
Marine Technology
Technology and
and Ocean
Ocean Engineering
Engineering (CENTEC),
(CENTEC), Instituto
Instituto Superior
Superior Técnico,
Técnico, Universidade
Universidade de
de Lisboa,
Lisboa, Av.
Av.
** Centre for Marine Rovisco
Rovisco Pais,
Technology
Pais, 1049-001
and Ocean
1049-001 Lisboa,
Lisboa, Portugal
Engineering
Portugal (e-mail:c.guedes.soares@centec.tecnico.ulisboa.pt)
(CENTEC), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av.
(e-mail:c.guedes.soares@centec.tecnico.ulisboa.pt)
Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal (e-mail:c.guedes.soares@centec.tecnico.ulisboa.pt)
Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal (e-mail:c.guedes.soares@centec.tecnico.ulisboa.pt)
Abstract: When dealing with critical physical assets it is very important to monitor some parameters just
Abstract:
to observe When When dealingthewith
and predict
dealing with criticaltime
potential
critical physical
physical assetsand
to failure
assets it isthus
it veryestablish
important to monitor some
a preventive some parameters
maintenance just
activity
Abstract:
Abstract:
to observe
avoiding
Abstract: When
theand
When dealingthe
predict
unwanted
dealing with
failure
with critical
potential
occurrence
critical physical
time
physical toand assets
failure
its
assets it is
and
very
isthus
consequences.
it is very
important
veryestablish
important
According
important a
to
to monitor
monitor
preventive
to to
monitor some parameters
parameters
maintenance
periodic
some (or
parameters
just
just
activity
continuous) just
to
to observe
observe and
and predict
predict the
the potential
potential time
time to failure
toselected
failure and
and thus
thus establish
establish aa preventive
preventive maintenance
maintenance activity
activity
avoiding
data
to gathered
observe
avoiding the
theand unwanted
along
predict
unwanted failure
thethe time occurrence
concerning
potential
failure time
occurrence toand its consequences.
failure
and its consequences.
parameters
and thus According
it According
is possible
establish a preventiveto
to periodic
to periodic
observe (or
maintenance
(or continuous)
tendencies and
activity
continuous)
avoiding
data gathered
determine
avoiding the
time
the unwanted
along
to the
failure,
unwanted failure
time
assuming
failure occurrence
concerninga
occurrence pre-definedand
selected
and its
its consequences.
parameters
value as the
consequences. it According
is
critical possible
Accordingone, to
to periodic
corresponding
to observe
periodic (or
to
(or continuous)
tendencies
asset and
failure.
continuous)
data
data gathered
gathered along
along the
the time
time concerning
concerning selected
selected parameters
parameters it is
is possible
it outlining
possible to observe
toimportance
observe to tendencies
tendencies and
and
determine
The present
data gathered
determine time
time to failure,
paper
along
to failure,
deals
the assuming
with
time
assumingthis
concerninga pre-defined
type
a pre-defined
of selected
condition value as the
parameters
value as the critical
monitoring critical
it is one, corresponding
possible
one, corresponding
theto observe asset
of failure.
predicting
tendencies
to asset and
failure.
determine
The
time present
to
determine time
failure
time to
paper
and failure,
deals assuming
with
illustrating
to failure, this
it
assuming with a
typepre-defined
an of condition
example
a pre-defined value
where
value as
thethe
monitoring critical
evolution
as the criticaloutlining one,
of a corresponding
the
degradation
one, corresponding importance to
parameter
to ofasset
of failure.
predicting
asset on time
failure.
The
The present
present paper
paper deals
deals with
with this
this type
type of
of condition
condition monitoring
monitoring outlining
outlining the
theisimportance
importance predicting
ofallowing
predicting
time
The
time to failure
for severalfailure
present
to and illustrating
similar
paper
and illustrating
assets with
deals itthis
is observed
it with
with an
type
anand, example
of condition
example where
based whereon that, thethe
evolution
monitoring
the time
evolution toof
outlining offailure
a degradation
a degradation
the parameter
determined,
importanceparameterof on time
time
predicting
on to
time
for to
establish
time failure
several the
to failure and
similar
right illustrating
assets
moment
and illustrating isfor it with
observed
maintenance
it with an anand, example
based
for
example where
theseon
wheretype the
that, of evolution
the time
assets
the evolution to of
operating a degradation
failure in is
of a degradation parameter
determined,
these conditions.
parameter on
allowing time
on time to
for
for several
several similar
similar assets
assets is isforobserved
observed and,
and, for based
based on that,
that,ofthe
on type the time to
to failure
timeoperating failureinis isthesedetermined,
determined, allowing
allowing to to
establish
for several thesimilar
right moment
moment
assets is maintenance
observed and, based theseon that, the assets
time to failure is conditions.
determined,
©
establish
2016, IFAC
Keywords:
establish the
the right
(International
Maintenance,
right moment for
Failure,
for maintenance
Federation
Degradation,
maintenance for
of Automatic
for these type
Control)
Reliability.
these type of
of assets
Hosting
assets operating
by Elsevier
operating in
in these
Ltd.
these All rights reserved. to
conditions.
conditions.
allowing
establish
Keywords: the right momentFailure, for maintenance for Reliability. these type of assets operating in these conditions.
Keywords: Maintenance,
Maintenance, Failure, Degradation, Degradation, Reliability. 
Keywords: Maintenance, Failure,
Keywords: Maintenance, Failure, Degradation,
Degradation, Reliability. Reliability.

1. INTRODUCTION  2. THE IMPORTANCE OF MAINTENANCE AND

1. INTRODUCTION  2. THE IMPORTANCE
CONDITIONOF MAINTENANCE
MONITORING AND
It is common to assume 1.
1. INTRODUCTION
that all human activities involve risk.
INTRODUCTION 2. THE IMPORTANCE OF MAINTENANCE AND
1. INTRODUCTION 2.
2. THE
THE IMPORTANCE
CONDITION
IMPORTANCE OF
OF MAINTENANCE
MONITORING
MAINTENANCE AND
AND
It
The is common
difficulty to
is assume
to decide thatat all
eachhumanmoment activities
or involve
situation ifrisk.
the In every industrial CONDITION
activity
CONDITION theMONITORING
role
MONITORINGof maintenance is crucial.
It
It is
is common
common to
to assume
assume that
that all
all human
human activities
activities involve
involve risk.
risk. CONDITION MONITORING
The
present
It
The is difficulty
commonrisk
difficulty is
is
to
is to decide
acceptable
assume
to decide thatat
at each
or
all
eachnot.
humanmoment
In
moment some or
activities
or situation
situations
involve
situation if
if the
the In every industrial activity the role of maintenance is
risk. In
It every
plays industrial
an important activity
function the role
assuringof maintenance
a high crucial.
availability of
The difficulty is to decide at each moment or situation if In every industrial activity the role of maintenance is crucial.
present
decisions
The
present risk
difficulty
risk is
are easy acceptable
totodecide
take but
is acceptable
is or
atoreachnot.
in not.
other In
moment
In some
cases
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a deeper
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situations analysisthe
if the It It
In plays
equipment
everyan
plays an important
and onactivity
industrial
important function
safety.
function assuring
the Decisions
role
assuring a high theis crucial.
is
availability
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of maintenance
a high correct
crucial. of
of
present
decisions
about
present therisk
are
risk
risk is
easy acceptable
to take
acceptability
is acceptable but orin
is not.
other
needed.
orin not. In some
cases
When
Incases
some a situations
deeper
talking
situations analysisthe
about
the It It plays
equipment
methods an
to important
and
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Decisions
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best high
about availability
the
techniques correct
to of
use
decisions are easy to take but other a deeper analysis plays an important
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safety. assuring a high
Decisions about availability
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decisions
about
industrial
decisions the are
riskeasy
activities
are easy tothetake
acceptability but
majority in
is other
needed.
of
to take butisin needed. cases
When
undesirable
other cases a deeper
talking
events
a deeper analysis
about
depend
analysis equipment
methods
and the to and
apply
equipment on
in safety.
maintenance,
failure Decisions
forecast the
depend best about the
techniques
more and correct
moreto use
on
about the risk acceptability When talking about equipment
methods to and on
apply in safety. Decisions
maintenance, the best about the correct
techniques to use
about the risk
risk acceptability lead tois isanneeded. When talking about
This methods to
industrial
on
about many
industrial activities
thefactors whichthe
acceptability
activities the majority
majority of undesirable
increasing
needed.
of When
undesirable events
talkingdepend
uncertainty.
events about
depend and
the the
methods
and to apply
technological
the apply in
equipment
equipment
maintenance,
infailure
quality
maintenance,
failure forecast
forecast
the
of thedepend best
bestmore
themaintenance
depend
techniques
and
techniques
more and moreto
to use
activities
more on
use
on
industrial activities the majority of undesirable events depend and the equipment failure forecast depend more and more
on
makes many
industrial
on many factors
decisions
activities
factors which
difficult
which leadand
the majority
lead to
to an
thus
an increasing
all
ofincreasingthe
undesirable uncertainty.
uncertainties
events depend
uncertainty. This
need
This the
and
the technological
deployed.
the equipment failure
technological quality
quality of
forecast
of the
thedependmaintenance more on
activities
more and activities
maintenance on
on many factors
factors which lead to an increasing uncertainty. This
This the technological
makes
to
on
makes many decisions
be carefully
decisions difficult
evaluated.
which
difficult leadand
and thus
toWhen
an
thus all
riskthe
increasing
all theis uncertainties
related
uncertainty.
uncertainties need
to items
need the technological quality
deployed.
deployed. quality of of thethe maintenance
maintenance activitiesactivities
makes
to be decisions
carefully difficult
where theevaluated. and thus
forall the uncertainties need The use of condition monitoring techniques and condition-
or deployed.
failure,
makes
to be decisions
carefully consequences
difficult
evaluated. andWhen thus
When risk
human
all
risk theis
is related
lives,
uncertainties
related to
business
to items
need
items deployed.
The use of condition
to be
failure,
environment carefully
where the
can evaluated.
consequences
be When
catastrophic, for risk
human
there is related
lives,
a need to
business
to items
try or
to based
The use maintenance
of condition hasmonitoring
increased techniques
monitoring rapidly over
techniques and
and condition-
recent years
condition-
to be
failure, carefully
where the evaluated.
consequences When for risk
human is related
lives, business items or The
based use of condition
maintenance has monitoring
increased techniques
rapidly over and condition-
recent years
failure,
environment
avoid where
itswhere the
can
occurrence consequences
be catastrophic,
atcatastrophic,
all levels. forfor human
there
Condition is lives,
a need
monitoring business
to try
is oneor
to (Chen
The
based use etof al., 2015).
condition
maintenance has In
monitoringthe
increased last decade,
techniques
rapidly condition-based
over and condition-
recent years
failure,
environment the be
can consequences human
there is lives,
a need business
to try or
to based maintenance has increased rapidly over recent
environment can (Chen
maintenance et al., has 2015). been In the
used last decade,
as rapidly
the strategy that years
condition-based uses
avoid
of theits
environment
avoid its can be
occurrence
strategies
occurrence at
bethat
at
catastrophic,
all levels.
allow
catastrophic,
all levels. an there
Condition is aa need
understanding
there
Condition need to
is monitoring
monitoring of is
to try
is one
asset
try one
to
to based (Chen
(Chen
maintenance
maintenance
et
et al.,
al., has
2015).
2015).
hasInincreased
been In the
the
used
last
last
as
decade,
decade,
the
over recent
condition-based
condition-based
strategy that
years
uses
avoid
of the
condition its occurrence
strategies
and an at
that
actuation all levels.
allow
before Condition
anthe monitoring
understanding
failure. However, of is one
asset
this is information
(Chen
maintenance et al.,about
has 2015). items
been In condition
the
used last
as to act
decade,
the only
strategy when
condition-based
that it
usesis
avoid
of theits strategies
occurrencethat at allallow
levels.an Condition monitoring
understanding of isasset
one information
maintenance has
about been
items used as
condition the
to actstrategy
only that
when uses
it is
of the
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and an that
actuation allow
before an understanding of asset necessary
maintenance aboutand if
has beenit is needed. used The
as the objective is
strategy on one
that it side
uses
not the
of
conditionalways possible.
strategies
and an that Sometimes
actuation allow
before anthe
the duefailure.
to However,
understanding
failure. the process
However, of thisasset
this is
or
is information
information
necessary and aboutif it
items
items
is needed.
condition
condition
The
to
to act
act
objective
only
only
is on
when
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is
side
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not
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possible.
characteristics before
Sometimes
of the the due
equipmentfailure.
to However,
ittheis process
difficult this is
or avoid
necessary unnecessary
information and aboutif it maintenance
items
is needed. and
condition
The on
to the
act
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only
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it is
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condition
not always andpossible.
an actuation before thedue
Sometimes failure.
to However,
the process this oris necessary
avoid and
unnecessary if it is needed. The objective is on one side
not
physical always
impossible
not always possible.
characteristics
to acquire
possible. Sometimes
dataof the due
equipment
concerning
Sometimes due a to it
specific
to the
theis process
difficult
degradation
process or
or
the
avoid risk
necessary ofand
unnecessarya if it maintenance
failure occurrence.
is needed.
maintenance and
The
and on
on isthe
Itobjective
the other
common is on
other side
toone
side reduce
accept
side
reduce
physical characteristics of the equipment it is difficult avoid
the unnecessary maintenance the mostand on the other side reduce
physical
impossible
mechanism
physical characteristics
to acquire
and data
in other
characteristics of the equipment
of concerning
cases
the theaa specific
equipment it
it is
failure is is difficult
degradation
revealed
difficult or
or the avoidrisk
condition
risk of
unnecessary
of aa failure
monitoring failure asoccurrence.
maintenance
occurrence. and It
Itonis
advantageous
isthecommon
common to
othermaintenance
side
to accept
reduce
accept
impossible
impossible to
to acquire
acquire data
data concerning
concerning a specific
specific degradation
degradation the risk
condition
strategy, of a
monitoring
assuring failurethat occurrence.
as the most
maintenance It is
advantageous
actionscommon
are to
maintenance
done accept
at the
mechanism
instantaneously
impossible toand in other
(catastrophic
acquire data cases
or sudden
concerning the a failure
failure).
specific is revealed
degradation the risk
condition of a
monitoring failure occurrence.
as the most It is
advantageouscommon to
maintenanceaccept
mechanism
mechanism and
and in
in other
other cases
cases the
the failure
failure is
is revealed
revealed condition
strategy,
correct timemonitoring
assuring
and inthat as the
accordance most
maintenance to advantageous
actions
production are maintenance
done
requirements.at the
instantaneously
mechanism (catastrophic
and(catastrophic
in other cases or sudden failure).
failure is revealed strategy,
the failure). condition monitoring
assuring that as the most
maintenance advantageous
actions are maintenance
done at the
instantaneously or sudden strategy, assuring that maintenance actions are done at
The paper is structured
instantaneously
instantaneously (catastrophic
(catastrophic
into fiveor
or
sections.
sudden
sudden
Section 2 refers the correct
failure).
failure).
correct
Instead time
strategy, time and
ofassuring
maintenance
and in
inthataccordance
maintenance
accordance to production
actions toinproduction
fix periods
actions requirements.
we have
arerequirements.
done at the
thea
The
role paper is structured
of maintenance into
and five sections.
condition Section
monitoring 22 and
refers the
their correct
Instead
systematic
correct time
of
time and
and in
maintenance
acquisition in accordance
accordanceof datato
actions toin production
andfix periods
its
production requirements.
we
treatment. have
requirements. Theaa
The paper is structured into five sections. Section refers the Instead
Instead of
of maintenance actions in fix periods we have
The
The paper
role
importance
role of
paper
of
is structured
maintenance
is in an asset
structured
maintenance
into
and
and
five
five sections.
condition
into management
sections.
condition
Section
monitoring
perspective,
Section
monitoring
22 and
refers
refers
and
the
their
while
the Instead
their systematic
maintenance
systematic of maintenance
acquisition
activities will
maintenance
acquisition
actions
of
of data
take
actions
data
in and
place
in and
fix periods
its
fix only
periods
its when we
treatment.
wethe
treatment.
have
have The
data
The
aa
role
importance
section
role of 3 maintenance
in
presents
of maintenance an the and
asset condition
management
methodology
and management to monitoring
perspective,
forecast
condition monitoring a failure and their
while
based
and while systematic
maintenance
received
their systematic from acquisition
activities
a sensor, will
a of data
take
degradation and
place its
only
value treatment.
orwhen
other the The
data
device,
importance
importance in
in an
an asset
asset management perspective,
perspective, while maintenanceacquisition activities will of take
data placeand only its treatment.
when the The
data
section
on
importance
section 3
condition
3 presents
in
presents anthe
monitoring
the methodology
asset information
management
methodology to
to forecast
and someaa extrapolation
failure
perspective,
forecast failure while maintenance
based
based received
gives the from
maintenance
received
activities
indication
from aa sensor,
activities thatwill
sensor, will is take
aait degradation place
placevalue
the moment
take
degradation
only orwhen
to perform
only
value or other
when
other
the
the data
it.device,
Thus,
data
device,
section 3 presents 4the methodology to forecast aa extrapolation
failure basedthe received from aa sensor, aait degradation as:value or
on
on condition
models.
section 3Section
condition monitoring
presents presents
the
monitoring information
methodology
information to and
a demonstrative some
forecast
and some example
failure of
extrapolation based gives
some
received
gives the
the indication
advantages
from
indication canthat
sensor, be pointed
that it is the moment
out,
degradation
is the moment to
value
to or other
perform
otherit.
perform
device,
Thus,
device,
it. Thus,
on condition
models.
methodology
on conditionSectionmonitoring
and 4 presents
monitoringsection information
5 a states
information and
demonstrativesome
and some extrapolation
example
conclusions
some extrapolationof the
and gives
some the indication
advantages can that
be it is
pointed the moment
out, as: to perform it. Thus,
models. Section 4 presents a demonstrative example of the gives
some the indication
advantages can that
be it is
pointed the moment
out, as: to perform it. Thus,
models.
methodology
future
models. Section
works on
Section and 4
the
4 presents
section
area.
presents 5 a
a demonstrative
states
demonstrativesome example
conclusions
example of
of the
and
the some
some  advantages
Lower
advantages can
number
can be
be pointed
of
pointed out,
failures;
out, as:
as:
methodology and section 55 states some conclusions and
methodology
future
methodology
future works
works on
on
and
andthe
the
section
area.
section
area. 5 states
states some some conclusions
conclusions and and  Less Lower
Lower number
unavailability
number of
of failures;
due to repairs;
failures;
future works on the area.  Less Lower
Lower number
unavailability
number of
of failures;
due to
failures; repairs;
future works on the area.  Less unavailability due to repairs;
Copyright © 2016 IFAC 97  Less unavailability due to repairs;
Less unavailability due to repairs;
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2016 IFAC of International Federation of Automatic
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 Lower maintenance costs;
 Less spare parts necessity;
 Higher useful life time;
 Higher availability;
 Higher safety (regarding to a lower probability of
occurrence of a dangerous failure).
The condition monitoring efforts must be directed towards
critical equipment where selected parameters must be
evaluated. It must be assured that only characteristic
degradation parameters are followed in time. Equipment data
can be collected and gathered by the use of appropriate
sensors, by equipment performance measurements or by any
other possible techniques that are able to reveal the real
condition of equipment relative to its degradation.
The assets must be installed in accordance to good practices
and information of manufacturers must be followed. Then a
maintenance policy with proper methods for each item has to
be performed. Dieken (2015) states that in some kind of
equipment about 33% of failures are the result of an
inadequate inspection, test and maintenance. The early
finding of failures can be done using vibration analysis,
visual analysis, oil analysis or other condition monitoring
techniques. If necessary, some components should be
replaced by others with a higher reliability. Condition
monitoring refers to the ‘‘health’’ of an asset while condition-
based maintenance points out a necessity based on the
prediction of its remaining operating life or forecast of the
remaining useful life (RUL). The heart of CBM is condition
monitoring which, in principle, involves periodic or
continuous (online) data acquisition, processing, analysis,
interpretation and extracting useful information from it. The
information helps to identify if the asset health has diverged
from the normal. If so, then fault diagnosis and prognosis
often follow. Finally, a decision, regarding when and what
maintenance tasks are to be performed, is taken (Campos,
2009). Figure 1 illustrates the condition-based maintenance
process, including the condition monitoring circle (Sobral &
Roque, 2015).
DATA
OK CONFIRMATION
ACQUISITION
NORMAL
HEALTH STATUS
CONDITION
CONDITION PROCESSING
MONITORING
MONITORING
NOT
NORMAL
FAULT
ANALYSIS
DIAGNOSIS
PROGNOSIS
MAINTENANCE
CORRECTION
DECISION
Fig. 1. Condition-based Maintenance process.
98
Several published works refer condition monitoring and
condition-based maintenance in a huge variety of
applications. For example, Cao et al. (2015) use it with
multisensory information integration for online wear
condition monitoring of diesel engines, providing a nearly
warning performance degradation of approximately 40 hours
before the diesel engine experiences a catastrophic fault. The
same approach was used to quantify and predict the wear of a
spur gearbox by on-line wear debris concentration monitoring
(Feng et al., 2015). Tang et al. (2015) present a study about
the structural monitoring methods and early warning
conditions based on the characteristics of the aging jacket
offshore platforms, including the monitoring and early
warning condition of the displacement, the bearing loads of
pile end and the platform subsidence. In the aircraft field, Liu
et al. (2015) monitor the condition of an aircraft engine
through an entropy-based sensor selection method which can
provide quantitative description of the information contained
in sensor data, reducing the amount of data processing and
increasing the performance of condition monitoring. Voskuijl
et al. (2015) present a new approach to flight control system
design which takes into account the operational usage
(condition) of the helicopter provided by the health and usage
monitoring system (HUMS). As a result, the utilization rate
of the helicopter can be increased and maintenance costs can
be reduced. Another example of aero engines was also
studied by Shanmuganathan et al. (2015) using a condition
monitoring through life usage monitoring systems (LUMS),
helping the operator to estimate the useful operating life
available before any potential failure occurs. Examples of
condition monitoring in other areas can be pointed out
showing the applicability and describing the real advantages
of the strategy.
The present work tries to use the advantages of CBM as the
ones stated in the previous examples and present a
methodology that, if applied, can give to asset managers a
better understanding of the asset behaviour regarding the
failure forecasting and thus enabling a supported decision
making process and a supported maintenance strategy.
3. METHODOLOGY
Sometimes when high reliable items are used or no times to
failure are experienced there’s no historic data to predict
failures. In accordance to some studies (Oliveira & Colosimo,
2004) in these cases a degradation analysis is very important
because one doesn’t need to wait for a failure to have data
concerning items life.
In this paper, some modifications to generic condition
monitoring and condition-based maintenance methodology
are proposed, as a way of applying some tools to predict or
forecast time to failure. The proposed methodology relies in
the following steps, as illustrated in Figure 2.
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PHYSICAL ASSET
DATA ACQUISITION Where “a” and “b” are the model parameters determined in
CONDITION MONITORING
TECHNIQUE
function of several observations and extrapolated through
regression analysis to estimate the critical value.
CRITICAL DEGRADATION
MECHANISM
Attention should be paid to the extrapolation model. The
fitness to a specific model can be observed in correlation
DEGRADATION MECHANISM
PARAMETER SELECTION
EXTRAPOLATION METHOD graphics “degradation x time” or using specific software
which ranks the models previously mentioned in accordance
DEGRADATION LIMIT VALUE to a data fitness algorithm. The uncertainty of the results
TIME TO FAILURE ESTIMATION decreases as the number of items analysed or quantity of
values collected increases. Although the importance of an
PREVENTIVE MAINTENANCE uncertainty analysis, it was not in the scope of the present
PLANNING study. Thus, based on the data gathered and on the
extrapolation model selected it is possible to estimate the
Fig. 2. Methodology proposed for degradation mechanism time to failure for similar assets working in identical
and failure forecast. conditions. If we are dealing with a single asset, the
estimation is immediate. If we are analysing a group of
similar assets we can observe several estimations for “time to
First, the physical asset (or asset family) is selected taking failure” and, in this case, use the conventional tool to perform
into account its importance for process or safety. Then, based a life data analysis based on the statistical distribution that
on the parameter to be monitored (for the degradation best fits those times to failure. This distribution can be
mechanism under analysis) the next step concerns the represented by its probability density function and from this
selection of the best condition monitoring technique among other functions can be observed as reliability function, failure
the available and technically feasible ones (thermography, rate or mean time to failure (MTTF). For example, using rank
vibration values, oil sample, pressure reading, temperature regression estimation or maximum likelihood estimation, if
reading, …). Then, it is necessary to define the value times to failure can be represented by a Weibull distribution
considered as the limit one or alarm value, related to the (triparametric), the probability density function (pdf) is
degradation parameter. Based on all these selections and expressed by:
definitions it is time to collect data. The data acquisition is an  t  

 1  
important step once it is the basis for extrapolation and  t   
  
f (t )  .  .e (1)
prediction of time to failure (forecasting process). It can be    
performed periodically and manually or continuously using
sensors and a data transmission network. To estimate time to
Where:
failure using the information about condition (degradation
values) an extrapolation method must be used. This method is  = Position parameter
selected using one of the models presented in Table 1  = Shape parameter
(Palerosi, 2006).  = Scale parameter or characteristic life parameter
t = time (number of cycles, etc…)
Table 1. Extrapolation models
Thus, the reliability function is determined by:
Model Degradation Time
t
parameter
Linear y  a .t  b
t 
yb
R (t )  1 
 f (t ). dt (2)
0
a
Exponential y  b .e
at ln y  ln b  t  


t    
a   
R (t )  e (3)
Power y  b .t
a 1
 y a And the failure rate by:
t  
b  1
 t 
Logarithmic y  a . ln( t )  b y b  (t )  .  (4)
t e a    
Gompertz y  a .b
(c )
t
ln y
t  c Consequently, the mean time to failure can be expressed by:
ln( a .b ) 

Lloyd-Lipow
y  a
b
t
b T 
 t . f (t ) dt (5)
t a y 0

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1 Table 3. Filter applications for in-dust systems based on

MTTF  T     .  ln( R )   (6) ASHRAE Standard 52.76 atmospheric dust spot test
Efficiency Applications
The last step of the methodology is to establish a preventive 10% Used in window air conditioners and heating
maintenance planning. All materials, tools, people and systems
logistic support can now be managed and well planned. Useful on lint
Somewhat useful on ragweed pollen
Not very useful on smoke and staining particles
20% Used in air conditioners, domestic heating and
4. DEMONSTRATIVE EXAMPLE central air systems
To demonstrate the applicability of the methodology it was Fairly useful on ragweed pollen
selected equipment related to a HVAC (Heat, Ventilation and Not very useful on smoke and staining particles
Air Conditioning) system from an important installation. This 40% Used in heating and air conditioning systems
is an important system once the air quality must be controlled and as pre-filters to high efficiency cleaners
and energy saved assured. Useful on finer airborne dust and pollen
Reduce smudge and stain materially
The filters are assumed to be the critical items in this system, Slightly useful on non-tobacco smoke particles
because when they clog they cannot guarantee the indoor air Not very useful on tobacco smoke particles
quality. Maintenance has a hard job to understand when the 60% Use same as 40%, but better protection
filters must be cleaned or replaced and thus high related Useful on all pollens, the majority of particles
maintenance and energy costs have been reported annually. causing smudge and stain, and coal and oil
The main function of the filters is to retain particles, smells smoke particles
and bacteria. If not well maintained these equipment can be Partially useful on tobacco smoke particles
by itself the source of contamination and influence the 80% Generally used in hospitals and controlled areas
energetic efficiency of the system once design requirements, Very useful on particles causing smudge and
such as the nominal flow or the outage pressure, are not stain, and coal and oil smoke particles
accomplished anymore. Quite useful on tobacco smoke particles
90% Use same as 80%, but better protection
The HVAC system is composed by five Fan-Coils (four Excellent protection against all smoke particles
pipes), with cold and hot water batteries located in a special
compartment above the space to be treated. These five Fan-
Coils are similar and operate at the same conditions In contrast to the ASHRAE Standard 52-76 ratings,
(environment, speed, time). They have three degrees of speed efficiencies derived by the DOP method in Military Standard
but they are adjusted to the middle one.The drop of pressure 282 (DoD, 2012) are expected to be more representative for
registered in those filters is directly linked with their clog, so, respirable particle size collection. The filter clog can be
the parameter to be monitored will be the drop of pressure referred in time, being expected to increase as time goes by.
(DOP). The filter used in this system has the following To measure the DOP in each filter two pressure switches
technical specifications, in accordance with ASHRAE 52-76 were installed one before and other after the respective filter.
(1976), represented in Table 2. Data concerning DOP was weekly collected. Table 4
represents an example of values corresponding to one of the
Table 2. Filter technical specifications equipment under analysis (Fan-Coil #4).
Designation Values
Table 4. Data related to Fan-Coil #4
Fibber type Synthetic
Gravimetric Efficiency 87,50% Reading Time [h] DOP [Pa] DPf
Recommended velocity (air) 1,5 m/s Week # Previous Actual Op. Time Pbf Paf [Pa]
Initial DOP 35 Pa 1 0 15635 -60 -80 20
2 15635 15774 139 -60 -88 28
Final DOP 120 Pa
3 15774 15919 145 -60 -90 30
Washable Yes 4 15919 16058 139 -50 -86 36
Temperature (máx) 100°C 5 16058 16194 136 -50 -92 42
Fire resistance Class F1 (DI 53438) 6 16194 16326 132 -50 -98 48
Classification EUROVENT 4/5 EU3 7 16326 16466 140 -50 -100 50
8 16466 16603 137 -44 -100 56
9 16603 16738 135 -40 -100 60
ASHRAE 52-76 is usually used to rate medium efficiency air 10 16738 16879 141 -40 -106 66
cleaners (both filters and electronic air cleaners). Table 3 11 16879 17025 146 -40 -104 64
shows typical applications and limitations of filters rated 12 17025 17157 132 -40 -110 70
using the ASHRAE Standard 52-76 atmospheric dust spot
test.

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As referred in Table 2, it is assumed an acceptable limit value

for DOP of 120 Pa. It must also be referred that other
parameters were analysed such as chemical and bacteria Taking these values to a conventional life data analysis it can
through a gas concentration analysis, as well as velocities and be seen that the distribution that better fits the referred times
flow. To simplify calculations in the application of the to failure is the Weibull triparametric distribution.
proposed methodology specific commercial software was Once selected the most adequate distribution, next step is to
used (ReliaSoft®, 2002). Based on data collected on the five calculate its parameters. For all Fan-Coils presented and
units, the next step was to select the extrapolation model. By studied the following parameters were achieved.
using the referred software it was concluded that the model
that better fits to data is the exponential one. In addition to
Table 7. Triparametric Weibull distribution parameters
the software, the goodness of fit for the available data was
also analysed through the chi-squared and Kolmogorov- Parameter Value
Smirnov tests, attesting that exponential function fits well.  8.44
Table 5 outlines the values for linear extrapolation model for
 17874 h
the five units (Fan-Coil).
 13643 h
Table 5. Parameters of the Exponential extrapolation
model
The shape parameter ( (dimensionless) reveals the curve
Unit ID Parameter “a” Parameter “b” gradient. For =3.4 this distribution is quite similar to
#1 0,0007646 0,0001597 Normal distribution and for =1 Weibull distribution is
#2 0,0006013 0,0041312 similar to Exponential distribution (constant failure rate). For
#3 0,0003264 0,3286080 <1 and >1 we have a decreased and increased failure rate,
#4 0,0005954 0,0041029 respectively. Scale parameter () has the same unit as “t” and
#5 0,0006455 0,0009753 is related with a lifetime associated to a cumulative failure
probability of 0.632. The third parameter () known as the
position parameter has also the same unit as “t” and gives the
Following the proposed methodology, the next step is to find displacement in “x” axis which corresponds to the initial
out the individual time to failure for each Fan-Coil, meaning point of the distribution. In theory before this value the
when the DOP limit is attained. Figure 3 shows tendency probability of a failure occurrence is almost zero.
curves of each equipment as well as the limit value for DOP Figure 4 shows the time correspondent to a probability of
(critical value). failure of 10%, with a confidence interval of 90%.

Fig. 3. Fan-Coil Exponential tendency curves.

Table 6 shows time to failure (TTF) forecast for each

equipment, assuming that a failure occurs when each Fan-
Coil reaches the limit value for DOP of 120 Pa.

Table 6. Time to failure forecast for all units

F/S TTF [h] Unit ID Fig. 4. Estimation of B10 life for filters.
F 17694,7 #1
F 17089,0 #2
F 18077,3 #3 With a mean life of 17638 hours and other possible reliability
indicators, maintenance has now a powerful tool to decide
F 17271,4 #4 when they should act. The risk concerning the probability of
F 18157,1 #5

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failure before the moment of maintenance activity take place
has a relationship with the value of the confidence intervals
assumed. In this case, for example if we decide to clean or
substitute the filters at t=15058 hours considering a bilateral
confidence level of 95%, it means that our risk to have a
failure before that time is in the worst case about 10%.
Although this decision is based in reliability concepts,
algorithms, mathematical expressions and some assumptions,
the decision making process must be observed in
combination with other aspects, as the economic ones or
legislation requirements.
5. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORKS
The methodology presented in this paper intends to show
how degradation analysis theory can be applied to critical
assets and its relationship to maintenance function. Were
described all the steps to perform this methodology and a
demonstrative example of a HVAC equipment was carried
out. Supported values achieved for reliability and the
estimation of times to failure related to data gathered in a
condition monitoring process justify the forwarded
maintenance activities in a sustainable way.
It may be concluded that decision making based on data
gathered by condition monitoring is better than historic data
or even the supplier information about the asset. Then,
through data acquisition and subsequent treatment it is
possible to have information about the mean life, the
probabilities of failure or the reliability of the item.
Finally, the presented methodology is important just to
predict assets behaviour and act in a preventive maintenance
strategy, once data can be collected along the time when
degradation conditions may vary. The proposed methodology
can be applied to critical equipment where a degradation
parameter can be measured.
As future works there is a need to simplify the analysis at
several levels as on the automatic selection of the
extrapolation model or the development of the reliability
analysis or even creating a complete analysis that links all the
process since data acquisition creating a faster method to
display the results. An uncertainty analysis and model
validation will be necessary to verify the consistency of the
methodology.
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