O LEVEL (P1)

PROBABLITY
MARK SCHEME
 1

1 (a) (i) − − 7 9 13 1
5 6 8 10 14
7 8 − − 16
9 10 − 14 18
13 14 16 18 22
(ii) (a) 6/25 oe f.t. 1 Follow through from their
table
(b) 5/25 oe f.t. 1 Follow through from their
table
(b) 0 1 4

2 (a) h= 1
4 or 0.25 1

(b) 3 1
(i) 10 or 0.3

(ii) 0 cao 1
1
(iii) 10 or 0.1
1

1
3 (a) (i) 0.25 o.e. 1 e.g. 4

13
(ii) 0.65 o.e. f.t. their (a) + 0.4 1√ e.g. 20
provided 0 < ans < 1

(b) 40 1

4 (a) 5 2 1
, correctly placed
7 7

5
(b) (i) 1 In (b), accept equivalent fractions but deduct a
14 1 mark penalty, once.
25
(ii) 2 or M1 for starting a complete, correct method,
28 e.g.
5 4 5 3 3 5
× + × + × (their )
8 7 8 7 8 7
5 3 5
or + × (their )
8 8 7
5 4 5
{ × may appear as or their (b)(i)}
8 7 14
3 2
or 1 − × (their ) , provided their fractions
8 7
are between 0 and 1
 2

4
5 (a) Correct completion with , 1
10
4 6 3
, and
9 9 9
7
(b) 2 C2 for a correct ft from (a)
15 6 5 4 3
M1 for × + ×
10 9 10 9

4
6 (a) or 0.16 1
25
(b) 0 1
12 6 8 10 16
(c) or 0.48 2 or C1 for , or , or , or
25 25 25 25 25
(or for 0.24, 0.32, 0.4, 0.64)

7 (a) p = 1, q = 0 1

5
(b) (i) 1
7
2
(ii) or ft 1 – their (i) 1ft ft depends on 0 < Ans. < 1
7
1 1
or ft ( + × their p)
7 7

1 2
8 (a) Tree diagram correct 2 C1 for and or
3 3
4 1 4 1
, , and
5 5 5 5

4
(b) 1
15

1 2 4 2 1 1 4
(c) 2 M1 for 1 −  × + × + ×  or
15 3 5 3 5 3 5
1 1
B1 for their and their seen
3 5

6
9 (a) oe isw 1
20

11 3 3 3 3
(b) oe isw 2 M1 for (1− ) × (1− ) + ×
20 4 5 4 5
 3

10 15
10 (a) Tree diagram correct 2 B1 for both , oe correct or
25 25
20 10
both , oe correct
30 30

8 10 10 15 20
(b) cao 2 M1 for × + × oe
15 25 30 25 30

11 (a) 1 3 1 2 2 B1 for any one pair

 and  ; (0 and 1);  and  – all three
4 4 3 3
pairs

(b) 1 1
oe
4

12 (a) 0 1

(b) A A B B C C
B C A C A B 1
5 6 5 7 6 7

(c) 1

or f.t from table

provided (number of 7s) > 0

13
6
(a) 1
35

(b) 0 1

17 8 13
(c) 2 C1 for , or for
35 35 35
17
or B1 for
their(5× 7)

14 (a) 1 1

1
(b) 1
15

4 3 2 2 1
(c) 2 M1 for × × × oe
15 6 5 6 5
or for any complete possibility diagram
such as the one below, correctly used.
2 3 3 4 4 4
2 – 23 23 24 24 24
3 32 – 33 34 34 34
3 32 33 – 34 34 34
4 42 43 43 – 44 44
4 42 43 43 44 – 44
4 42 43 43 44 44 –
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3 6 4 5
15 (a) , , oe 2 B1 for three correct
9 9 9 9

12
(b) (i) oe 1FT FT from their tree diagram
90

48
(ii) oe 2FT FT from their tree diagram
90 24
B1 for oe FT seen
90
4 6 6 4
or M1 for × + ×
10 9 10 oe 9 FT

7 7 3 6
16 (a) , , , correctly completed 1
10 9 9 9

1
(b) (i) 1
15

7 21
(ii) FT 2 B1 for oe FT
15 90
3 7 7 3
Or M1 for × + ×
10 9 10 9

17 (a) Correct completion of tree diagram 1

1
(b) (i) 1
10
17
(ii) or ft from their tree diagram 2 M1 for
50
2 1 3  2
× or their bi( + × their  
5 4 5 5
 ) } 

18 (a) Correct third ball branches with 13 and 23 and 2 B1 for
either
correct fourth ball branch(es) with(0 and) 1

3
(b) (i) oe 1
10

1 3 2 2
(ii) oe 2 B1 × thei   se
2 for 5 × 4 r  3 en


19 11 2 B1 for answer 11
60
5 2
Or × 60 and × 60
12 5 soi
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20 (0).28 oe 2* B1 for (0).4 oe seen

1 1 1 1
21 (a) 1
4 4 4 4

(b) (i) 5 6 7 8 1

 15  10 3
(ii)   0 1
 16  16 16
or FT from their (bi) table

7 1
(c) oe WWW 2 *M1 for × ( sum of (bii) table) oe,
16 4
or for ∑x y, attempt, where x and y are
corresponding values in the two tables

22 (a) (i) 0 1

3
(ii) 1
7

2
(b) oe 1
7

11 1 1 4
(c) oe 2* M1 for ×1 + ×
14 2 2 7

2 2 8 1
23 (a) , , , correctly positioned 1
10 9 9 9

56
(b) (i) oe 1*
90

32 8 2 2 8
(ii) oe 2ft* M1 for × + ×
90 10 9 10 9
ft their tree diagram with fractions < 1

24 (a) – 3 4 5 1

3 – 5 6
4 5 – 7
5 6 7 –

(b) 0 1

(c) 4 1
oe ; or FT their table
12
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25 (a) 16 1

(b) 80 2 B1 for 120 or 96 seen

24 1 16 + x 4
or M1 for = or = oe
40 + x 5 40 + x 5

26(a) Correctly completed tree diagram 2 C1 for one correct probability correctly
n−3 positioned
oe
n −1
n−3
oe
n
n−4
oe
n −1

(b) 3 2 1 M1
× =
n n −1 15

Correct rearrangement with at least A1

one further step to reach
n2 – n – 90 = 0

(c) 10 2 B1 for solutions 10, –9 seen

or M1 for (n – 10)(n + 9) [ = 0]
1± ( −1)2 − 4 × 1 × −90
or for or better
2 ×1