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Meet the Authors vii
For the past 30 years Jonathan Berkowitz (Ph.D. University of Toronto) has had a full-time practice
as a consulting statistician as president of the aptly named Berkowitz & Associates Consulting Inc.
But Jonathan leads a double life, because he is also a full-time instructor with the Sauder School
of Business and an Associate Member of the Department of Family Practice (Faculty of Medicine),
both at the University of British Columbia. Jonathan is recognized as an outstanding teacher, hav-
ing won the Killam Teaching Prize for undergraduate teaching and CGA Graduate Master Teacher
Award for MBA teaching, both at the Sauder School, as well as many awards and commendations
from students. In addition, he teaches short courses and workshops for a number of public and
private sector groups. His passion for teaching also extends to younger audiences, regularly per-
forming shows on math magic, word games, and puzzles in school classrooms. In his consulting
life, Jonathan has been involved in a wide range of collaborative and interdisciplinary research in
health care and medical research, social science, engineering, biotechnology, transportation, law,
management consulting, market research, and accounting. His clients enthusiastically describe
him as a “user friendly” statistician! He has contributed to numerous successful research grant
applications, and has co-written many peer-reviewed journal articles and other publications. He
has also helped more than 100 graduate students complete their degrees. While numbers are
his vocation, words are his avocation. A passion for puzzles, word games, and puns infiltrates
all aspects of his life, including the classroom. He is an active member of the National Puzzlers’
League, and for six years was the puzzle composer and editor for the American Statistical Asso-
ciation’s CHANCE magazine. Jonathan and his wife have two children, both of whom graduated
from Canadian business schools and have careers in quantitative fields, a classic illustration of the
power of both nature and nurture.
A01_SHAR7740_02_SE_FM.indd 7 16/11/17 6:21 PM

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Brief Contents
Preface
Part 1 Exploring and Collecting Data
Chapter 1 Statistics, Data, and Decisions 1
Chapter 2 Displaying and Describing Categorical Data 30
Chapter 3 Displaying and Describing Quantitative Data 67
Chapter 4 Correlation and Linear Regression 116
Part 2 Modelling with Probability

Chapter 5 Randomness and Probability 168
Chapter 6 Random Variables and Probability Models 202
Chapter 7 The Normal and Other Continuous Distributions 231
Chapter 8 Surveys and Sampling 262
Chapter 9 Sampling Distributions and Confidence Intervals for Proportions 287
Part 3 Inference for Decision-Making

Chapter 10 Testing Hypotheses About Proportions 325
Chapter 11 Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests for Means 360
Chapter 12 Comparing Two Groups 394
Chapter 13 Inference for Counts: Chi-Square Tests 446
Part 4 Models for Decision-Making

Chapter 14 Inference for Regression 485
Chapter 15 Multiple Regression 537
Chapter 16 Statistical Modelling and the World of Business Statistics 586
Appendix A: Answer Key
Appendix B: Tables and Selected Formulas
Index
ix

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Contents
Preface xiv
Part 1 Exploring and Collecting Data

Chapter 1 Statistics, Data, and Decisions 1
1.1 The Role of Statistics in the World 2 • 1.2 So, What Is Statistics? 4
1.3 What Are Data? 7 • 1.4 Types of Variables (and Types of Data) 10
1.5 Data Quality 17 • 1.6 Data Sources—Where, How, and When 19
Ethics in Action 22
Technology Help: Statistics Packages 25
Mini Case Study Projects: Credit Card Company 25
Edmonton Oilers 25
Student Survey 25
Chapter 2 Displaying and Describing Categorical Data 30

2.1 The Three Rules of Data Analysis 31 • 2.2 Frequency Tables 32 • 2.3 Displaying a
Categorical Variable 33 • 2.4 Exploring Two Categorical Variables: Contingency Tables 37
2.5 Simpson’s Paradox 47 • 2.6 How to Make a Table That Has Legs! 48
Ethics in Action 53
Technology Help: Displaying Categorical Data on the Computer 55
Mini Case Study Project: Eddie’s Hang-up Display 56
Chapter 3 Displaying and Describing Quantitative Data 67

3.1 Displaying Quantitative Variables 68 • 3.2 Shape 72 • 3.3 Centre 74
3.4 Spread of the Distribution 76 • 3.5 Shape, Centre, and Spread—A Summary 78
3.6 Five-Number Summary and Boxplots 79 • 3.7 Comparing Groups 82
3.8 Identifying Outliers 84 • 3.9 Standardizing 85 • *3.10 Time Series Plots 88
3.11 Transforming Skewed Data 91
Ethics in Action 95
Technology Help: Displaying and Summarizing Quantitative Variables 99
Mini Case Study Projects: Canada’s CEO Top 100 100
Hotel Occupancy Rates 101
Value and Growth Stock Returns 101
Chapter 4 Correlation and Linear Regression 116

4.1 Looking at Scatterplots 119 • 4.2 Assigning Roles to Variables in Scatterplots 121
4.3 Understanding Correlation 122 • 4.4 Lurking Variables and Causation 127
4.5 The Linear Model 129 • 4.6 Correlation and the Line 130 • 4.7 Regression to
the Mean 133 • 4.8 Checking the Model 137 • 4.9 Variation in the Model and R 2 139
4.10 Reality Check: Is the Regression Reasonable? 141 • 4.11 Nonlinear Relationships 145
Ethics in Action 150
Technology Help: Correlation and Regression 154
Mini Case Study Projects: Fuel Efficiency 155
Energy Use at YVR 155
Cost of Living 156
Canadian Banks 156
Part 2 Modelling with Probability

Chapter 5 Randomness and Probability 168
5.1 Random Phenomena and Probability 169 • 5.2 The Nonexistent
Law of Averages 171 • 5.3 Different Types of Probability 172
5.4 Probability Rules 174 • 5.5 Joint Probability and Contingency Tables 179
5.6 Conditional Probability 179 • 5.7 Constructing Contingency Tables 182
5.8 Probability Trees 183 • *5.9 Reversing the Conditioning: Bayes’ Rule 185
5.10 Fun with Probability! 187
Mini Case Study Project: Market Segmentation 192
xi

xii Contents
Chapter 6 Random Variables and Probability Models 202

6.1 Expected Value of a Random Variable 204 • 6.2 Standard Deviation of a Random
Variable 205 • 6.3 Properties of Expected Values, Variances, and Standard
Deviations 208 • 6.4 Bernoulli Trials 212 • 6.5 Discrete Probability Models 213
Technology Help: Random Variables and Probability Models 224
Mini Case Study Project: Investment Options 224
Chapter 7 The Normal and Other Continuous Distributions 231

7.1 Continuous Random Variables 232 • 7.2 The Normal Distribution 233
7.3 Normal Probability Plots 241 • 7.4 The Distribution of Sums of Normals 243
7.5 The Normal Approximation for the Binomial 246 • 7.6 Other Continuous
Random Variables 249
Technology Help: Probability Calculations and Plots 253
Mini Case Study Project: Price/Earnings and Stock Value 254
Chapter 8 Surveys and Sampling 262

8.1 Three Ideas of Sampling 263 • 8.2 Populations and Parameters 268 • 8.3 Common
Sampling Designs 269 • 8.4 The Valid Survey 274 • 8.5 How to Sample Badly 275
Technology Help: Random Sampling 280
Mini Case Study Projects: Market Survey Research 280
Canadian Labour Force Survey 280
Chapter 9 Sampling Distributions and Confidence Intervals for Proportions 287

9.1 The Distribution of Sample Proportions 289 • 9.2 The Sampling Distribution
for Proportions 290 • 9.3 The Central Limit Theorem—The Fundamental
Theorem of Statistics 295 • 9.4 A Confidence Interval for a Proportion 299
9.5 Margin of Error: Certainty vs. Precision 304 • 9.6 Choosing the Sample Size 307
Technology Help: Confidence Intervals for Proportions 314
Mini Case Study Projects: Real Estate Simulation 315
Investor Sentiment 316
Part 3 Inference for Decision-Making

Chapter 10 Testing Hypotheses About Proportions 325
10.1 Hypotheses 327 • 10.2 A Trial as a Hypothesis Test 328 • 10.3 P-Values 329
10.4 The Reasoning of Hypothesis Testing 331 • 10.5 Alternative Hypotheses 333
10.6 Alpha Levels and Significance 337 • 10.7 Critical Values 339 • 10.8 Confidence
Intervals and Hypothesis Tests 340 • 10.9 Two Types of Errors 343 • *10.10 Power 345
Technology Help: Hypothesis Tests 351
Mini Case Study Projects: Metal Production 352
Loyalty Program 353
Chapter 11 Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests for Means 360

11.1 The Sampling Distribution for Means 361 • 11.2 How Sampling Distribution
Models Work 362 • 11.3 Gossett and the t-Distribution 364 • 11.4 A Confidence
Interval for Means 366 • 11.5 Assumptions and Conditions 368
11.6 Testing Hypotheses About the Mean—The One-Sample t-Test 373
Technology Help: Inference for Means 381
Mini Case Study Projects: Real Estate 382
Social Media 383

xiii
Contents
Chapter 12 Comparing Two Groups 394

12.1 Comparing Two Means 396 • 12.2 The Two-Sample t-Test 398 • 12.3 Assumptions
and Conditions 399 • 12.4 A Confidence Interval for the Difference Between Two Means 403
12.5 The Pooled t-Test 405 • 12.6 Paired Data 412 • 12.7 Paired t-Methods 414
12.8 Comparing Two Proportions 419
Technology Help: Comparing Two Means 426
Mini Case Study Projects: Terra Breads 429
Real Estate 429
Stanley Cup Fatigue (Data Analysis) 430
Chapter 13 Inference for Counts: Chi-Square Tests 446

13.1 Goodness-of-Fit Tests 448 • 13.2 Interpreting Chi-Square Values 453
13.3 Examining the Residuals 454 • 13.4 Chi-Square Tests of Two-Way Tables 455
Technology Help: Chi-Square 470
Mini Case Study Projects: Kit and Ace 472
Coffee Consumption in Canada 473
Loyalty Program 474
Part 4 Models for Decision-Making

Chapter 14 Inference for Regression 485
14.1 A Hypothesis Test and Confidence Interval for the Slope 487 • 14.2 Assumptions and
Conditions 491 • 14.3 Standard Errors for Predicted Values 497 • 14.4 Using Confidence and
Prediction Intervals 501 • 14.5 Extrapolation and Prediction 502 • 14.6 Unusual and
Extraordinary Observations 505 • *14.7 Working with Summary Values 508 • *14.8 Linearity 510
14.9 A Hypothesis Test for Correlation 512 • 14.10 ANOVA and the F-Statistic 512
Technology Help: Regression Analysis 520
Mini Case Study Projects: Frozen Pizza 522
Global Warming? 522
Chapter 15 Multiple Regression 537

15.1 The Multiple Regression Model 540 • 15.2 Interpreting Multiple Regression
Coefficients 542 • 15.3 Assumptions and Conditions for the Multiple Regression Model 544
15.4 Testing the Multiple Regression Model 551 • 15.5 ANOVA Table, F-Statistic, R 2,
and Adjusted R 2 552 • 15.6 Building, Comparing, and Using Models 555
15.7 Extending Multiple Regression 558 • *15.8 The Logistic Regression
Model 560 • 15.9 A Wrap-up Example 565
Technology Help: Regression Analysis 573
Mini Case Study Projects: Golf Success 574
Rating School Performance 575
Chapter 16 Statistical Modelling and the World of Business Statistics 586

16.1 Statistical Models 588 • 16.2 A Modelling Framework 591 • 16.3 One-Way
Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) 594 • 16.4 A Short Tour of Other Statistical Methods
in Business 601 • 16.5 The Future of Business Statistics 603
Technology Help: Analysis of Variance 607
Appendixes A-1
A. Answer Key A-1
B. Tables and Selected Formulas A-77
Index I-1

Preface
Motivated business students studying Statistics ask the question “How can I make better
decisions?” Unfortunately, that is not the question most students are asking themselves on
the first day of the course! As entrepreneurs and consultants, we know that in today’s data-
rich environment, knowledge of Statistics is essential to survive and thrive in the business
world. But, as educators, we’ve seen a disconnect between the way business statistics is tra-
ditionally taught and the way it should be used in making business decisions. In Business
Statistics: A First Course, we try to narrow the gap between theory and practice by present-
ing relevant statistical methods that will empower business students to make effective, data-
informed decisions.
Of course, students should come away from their statistics course knowing how to
think statistically and how to apply statistics methods with modern technology. But they
must also be able to communicate their analyses effectively to others. When asked about
statistics education, a group of CEOs from Fortune 500 companies recently said that,
although they were satisfied with the technical competence of students who had studied
Statistics, they found the students’ ability to communicate their findings to be woefully
inadequate.
Our Plan, Do, Report rubric provides a structure for solving business problems that
mimics the correct application of statistics to solving real business problems. We empha-
size the often-neglected thinking (Plan) and communication (Report) steps in problem
solving, in addition to the methodology (Do). This approach requires up-to-date, real-
world examples and data. So, we constantly strive to illustrate our lessons with current
business issues and examples.
What’s New in This Edition?

The second Canadian edition of Business Statistics: A First Course has a new structure to
further help students focus on the central material. Examples and exercises are updated so
that the story we tell is always tied to the ways Statistics informs modern business practice.
• Recent data. We teach with real data whenever possible, so we’ve updated data
throughout the book. New examples ref lect current stories in the news and recent
economic and business events. Some of the Mini Case Study Projects have been updated
with new data and new contexts.
• Improved organization. We have retained our “data first” presentation of topics,
because we find that it provides students with both motivation and a foundation in real
business decisions on which to build an understanding.
• Chapters 1–4 have been streamlined to cover collecting, displaying, summariz-
ing, and understanding data in four chapters. We find that this provides students
with a solid foundation to launch their study of probability and statistics.
• Chapters 5–9 introduce students to randomness and probability models. They
then apply these new concepts to sampling. This provides a gateway to the core
material on statistical inference. We’ve moved the discussion of probability trees
and Bayes’ rule into these chapters.
• Chapters 10–13 cover inference for both proportions and means. We introduce
inference by discussing proportions, because most students are better acquainted
with proportions reported in surveys and news stories. However, this edition ties
in the discussion of means immediately, so students can appreciate that the rea-
soning of inference is the same in a variety of contexts.
• Chapters 14 and 15 cover regression-based models for decision-making.
xiv

Preface xv

• Chapter 16, the capstone chapter, now also includes a section on one-way analy-
sis of variance. And the chapter points the way forward for further study of busi-
ness statistics.
• Streamlined design. Our goal has always been an accessible text. This edition sports
a new design that clarifies the purpose of each text element. The major theme of each
chapter is more linear and easier to follow without distraction. Supporting material is
clearly boxed and shaded, so students know where to focus their study efforts.
• Enhanced Technology Help with expanded Excel 2013 coverage. We’ve updated
Technology Help with detailed instructions for Excel 2013 to almost every chapter.
• Updated Ethics in Action features. We’ve updated some of our Ethics in Action
features.
• Updated examples to reflect the changing world. We live in a time of rapid and
marked changes in Canadian, American, and world economies. Our examples and
exercises have been updated to keep pace.
• Increased focus on core material. Statistics in practice means making smart deci-
sions based on data. Students need to know the methods, how to apply them, and the
assumptions and conditions that make them work. We’ve tightened our discussions to
get students there as quickly as possible, focusing increasingly on the central ideas and
core material.
• MyLab Business Statistics performance data to improve exercises. The authors
analyzed aggregated student usage and performance data from MyLab Business
Statistics for the previous edition of this text. The results of this analysis helped improve
the quality and quantity of exercises that matter the most to instructors and students.
In addition to these changes, below is a detailed list of changes by chapter to the sec-
ond Canadian edition.
• Chapter 1 encourages students’ interest in and understanding of the discipline
through a chapter opener and an introductory section called The Role of Statis-
tics in the World. There is an expanded explanation of uncertainty, and a brief
discussion of basic s tatistical literary. The chapter then moves immediately to a
discussion of data types and includes a section on data quality.
• Chapter 2 introduces alternatives and variations on bar charts—dot plot, Pareto
chart, and segmented bar charts—as an alternative to pie charts. New in the sec-
ond edition is a discussion of mosaic plots, and a section on constructing good
tables (How to Make a Table That Has Legs!).
• Chapter 3 has historical notes on the term histogram, the origins of stem-
and-leaf displays, and the use of x-bar notation; an explanation of harmonic and
geometric means, with illustrative examples; and the probability explanation of the
n – 1 denominator of sample standard deviation. The second edition has a new
section on transforming skewed data, and introduces the term “infographics.”
• Chapter 4 has an expanded discussion of regression to the mean, historical
vignettes, and a graphical illustration. The second edition has a new item on eco-
logical correlation, and a new section on nonlinear relationships.
• Chapter 5 features expanded commentary about, and illustrations of, Bayes’
Rule. The section called Fun with Probability! describes three famous probability
puzzles.

xvi Preface
• Chapter 6 discusses random variables and focuses on discrete probability models.

It includes a subsection on dependent random variables, important in finance and
portfolio diversification. There is now a separate subsection on Bernoulli trials.
• Chapter 7 is a new chapter on continuous probability models, focusing on the
Normal distribution, with a chapter opener about the TSX. The second edition
also has a brand-new section on Normal probability plots.
• Chapter 8 discusses surveys and sampling, with additional explanations of popula-
tion, parameter, sample, statistic, and sampling frame as well as sidebar discussions
that help contextualize the concept of polls and surveys.
• Chapter 9 includes stronger ties to material in previous and later chapters, to
help students draw on what they have already learned.
• Chapter 10 has a full illustration of the correspondence between the logic of
hypothesis testing and proof by contradiction, as well as new explanations of con-
cepts such as statistical versus practical significance and how the two error type
probabilities are inversely related. The second edition has a clear tabular sum-
mary of the hypothesis testing process.
• Chapter 11 includes feature boxes that connect Statistics to students’ everyday
life, including a feature on the Canadian Census, updated for the new federal law
restoring the mandatory long-form census.
• Chapter 12 has an additional example, a subsection about how the paired t-test
works, and a separate section on comparing two proportions, with a new illustra-
tive example on Snapchat usage by teenagers.
• Chapter 13 combines the two topics, the chi-square test of homogeneity and the
chi-square test of independence, into a single section, Chi-Square Tests of Two-
Way Tables, showing how the two-proportion z-test can be recast as a two-way
table and then extended to more rows and more columns.
• Chapter 14 has a separate section on a hypothesis test of correlation, and a sec-
tion on regression ANOVA and the F-statistic. The second edition has many
updated exercises with more-current data sets.
• Chapter 15 has two unique sections—one on building, comparing, and using
models, and one that extends multiple regression to curvilinear models and cat-
egorical predictors. The second edition has a new section on logistic regression
and a wrap-up example that ties together all the elements of multiple regression.
• Chapter 16, the capstone chapter, synthesizes key material from earlier chapters.
It has a unified framework approach to statistical models for the inference tech-
niques covered in the text. The second edition has a new section and expanded
coverage of one-way analysis of variance. The chapter also provides a brief
description of several business statistics methods beyond the scope of this text,
and concludes with comments on the future of business statistics and big data.
Our Approach
Statistical Thinking
For all of our improvements, examples, and updates in this edition of Business Statistics: A
First Course, we haven’t lost sight of our original mission—writing a modern business sta-
tistics text that addresses the importance of statistical thinking in making business decisions
that acknowledge how Statistics is actually used in business.

xvii
Preface
Statistics is practised with technology, and this insight informs everything from our
choice of forms for equations (favouring intuitive forms over calculation forms) to our
extensive use of real data. But most important, understanding the value of technology
allows us to focus on teaching statistical thinking rather than calculation. The questions
that motivate each of our hundreds of examples are not “How do you find the answer?” but
“How do you think about the answer?”, “How does it help you make a better decision?”,
and “How can you best communicate your decision?”
Our focus on statistical thinking ties the chapters of the book together. An introduc-
tory business statistics course covers an overwhelming number of new terms, concepts, and
methods, and it is vital that students see their core: how we can understand more about the
world and make better decisions by understanding what the data tell us. From this perspec-
tive, it is easy to see that the patterns we look for in graphs are the same as those we think
about when we prepare to make inferences.
We can see that the many ways to draw inferences from data are several applications of
the same core concepts. And it follows naturally that when we extend these basic ideas into
more complex (and even more realistic) situations, the same basic reasoning is still at the
core of our analyses.
Our Goal: Read This Book!

The best textbook in the world is of little value if it isn’t read. Here are some of the ways we
made Business Statistics: A First Course more approachable:
• Readability. We strive for a conversational, approachable style, and we introduce
anecdotes to maintain interest. Instructors report (to their amazement) that their stu-
dents read ahead of their assignments voluntarily. Students tell us (to their amazement)
that they actually enjoy the book.
• Focus on assumptions and conditions. More than any other textbook, Business Statis-
tics: A First Course emphasizes the need to verify assumptions when using statistical
procedures. We reiterate this focus throughout the examples and exercises. We make
every effort to provide templates that reinforce the practice of checking these assump-
tions and conditions, rather than rushing through the computations. Business deci-
sions have consequences. Blind calculations open the door to errors that could easily
be avoided by taking the time to graph the data, check assumptions and conditions,
and then check again that the results and residuals make sense.
• Emphasis on graphing and exploring data. We consistently emphasize the impor-
tance of displaying data. Examples often illustrate the value of examining data graphi-
cally, and the Exercises reinforce this. Good graphics reveal structures, patterns, and
occasional anomalies that could otherwise go unnoticed. These patterns often raise
new questions and inform both the path of a resulting statistical analysis and the busi-
ness decisions. Many new graphics found throughout the book demonstrate that the
simple structures that underlie even the most sophisticated statistical inferences are
the same ones we look for in the simplest examples. This helps tie the concepts of
the book together to tell a coherent story.
• Consistency. We work hard to avoid the “do what we say, not what we do” trap. Hav-
ing taught the importance of plotting data and checking assumptions and conditions,
we are careful to model that behaviour throughout the book. (Check the Exercises in
the chapter on multiple regression and you’ll find us still requiring and demonstrat-
ing the plots and checks that were introduced in the early chapters.) This consistency

xviii Preface
helps reinforce these fundamental principles and provides a familiar foundation for the
more sophisticated topics.
• The need to read. In this book, important concepts, definitions, and sample solutions
are not always set aside in boxes. The book needs to be read, so we’ve tried to make
the reading experience enjoyable. The common approach of skimming for definitions
or starting with the exercises and looking up examples just won’t work here. (It never
did work as a way to learn about and understand Statistics.)
Coverage
The topics covered in a business statistics course are, generally, mandated by our students’
needs in their studies and in their future professions. But the order of these topics and the
relative emphasis given to each is not well-established. Business Statistics: A First Course pres-
ents some topics sooner than or later than other texts. Although many chapters can be
taught in a different order, we urge you to consider the order we have chosen.
We’ve been guided in the order of topics by the fundamental goal of designing a
coherent course in which concepts and methods fit together to provide a new understand-
ing of how reasoning with data can uncover new and important truths. Each new topic
should fit into the growing structure of understanding that students develop throughout
the course. For example, we teach inference concepts with proportions first and then with
means. Most people have a wider experience with proportions, seeing them in polls and
advertising. And by starting with proportions, we can teach inference with the Normal
model and then introduce inference for means with the Student’s t-distribution.
We introduce the concepts of association, correlation, and regression early. Our expe-
rience in the classroom shows that introducing these fundamental ideas early makes Sta-
tistics useful and relevant even at the beginning of the course. By Chapter 4, students can
discuss relationships among variables in a meaningful way. Later in the semester, when
we discuss inference, it is natural and relatively easy to build on the fundamental concepts
learned earlier and enhance them with inferential methods.
GAISE Report
We’ve been guided in our choice of what to emphasize by the GAISE (Guidelines for
Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education) Report, which emerged from extensive
studies of how students best learn Statistics. (www.amstat.org/education/gaise/GaiseCollege_
full.pdf ). Those recommendations, now officially adopted and recommended by the
American Statistical Association, urge (among other detailed suggestions) that statistics
education should
1. Emphasize statistical literacy and develop statistical thinking
2. Use real data
3. Stress conceptual understanding rather than mere knowledge of procedures
4. Foster active learning
5. Use technology for developing conceptual understanding and analyzing data
6. Make assessment a part of the learning process
In this sense, this book is thoroughly modern
This book recognizes both the changing curriculum and the changing pedagogy for
teaching introductory statistics. It focuses on application, streamlines and reorganizes
topics, sheds unneeded theoretical details, and recognizes learning styles of the current

xix
Preface
generation of students, making it an attractive choice for single-term courses at Canadian

business schools.
The Canadian edition uses illustrative case studies and chapter exercises that focus
on business and management of Canadian companies, large and small. The writing has
Canadian style, perspective, and sensibility, not just changes to spelling and metric mea-
surements. The book recognizes that Canada has public policy, governmental structure
and mandate (federal, provincial, and municipal), economic systems (banking and finance),
social services, health care, sports, and entertainment that are different from those of the
United States. While the book is indeed Canadian, it also shows how Statistics has no geo-
graphical borders and is a vital part of building and enhancing the global community.
Most chapter-opening examples ref lect a Canadian situation that is then used within
the chapter to illustrate new concepts. Throughout the chapters, exercises use Canadian
sources and examples, as do most Mini Case Study Projects.
Features
A textbook isn’t just words on a page: It is many features that come together to form a big
picture. The features in Business Statistics: A First Course provide a real-world context for
concepts, help students apply these concepts, promote problem solving, and integrate tech-
nology—all of which help students understand and see the big picture of business statistics.
Motivating Examples. Each chapter opens with a motivating example, often taken from
the authors’ consulting experiences. These companies—such as Angus Reid, Mountain
Equipment Co-op, Manulife Financial, and Canada Goose—enhance and illustrate the
story of each chapter, and show students how and why statistical thinking is so vital to mod-
ern business decision-making. We analyze the data from those companies throughout the
chapter.
Learning Objectives. Each chapter begins with a list of learning objectives. These are
brief but clear statements about what students are expected to know and to be able to dem-
onstrate by the end of the chapter (or the end of the course). These will also help instruc-
tors with course planning and classroom delivery. Each end-of-chapter exercise references
one or more learning objectives to guide students’ assessment of their progress with the
material.
Connections. Although the authors (and, we hope, the instructors) know how the chapters
of a textbook are related to each other and understand the logic behind the sequencing, it
may not be clear to students until they reach the end of the book. The Connections boxes
explain how the current chapter is related to the previous chapter(s), and why its position in
the sequence is appropriate.
Step-by-Step Guided Examples. The ability to clearly communicate statistical results
is crucial to helping Statistics contribute to business decision-making. To that end, some
examples in each chapter are presented as Guided Examples. A good solution is modelled in
the right column while commentary appears in the left column.
The overall analysis follows our innovative Plan, Do, Report template. That template
begins each analysis with a clear question about a decision and ends with a report which
answers that question. To emphasize the decision aspect of each example, we present the
Report step as a business memo that summarizes the results in the context of the example
and states a recommendation if the data are able to support one. In addition, whenever pos-
sible we include limitations of the analysis or models in the concluding memo.

xx Preface
Mini Case Study Projects. Each chapter includes one or two Mini Case Study
Projects that use real data and ask students to investigate a question or make a deci-
sion. Students define the objective, plan the process, complete the analysis, and
report a conclusion. Data for the Mini Case Study Projects are available on MyLab
Business Statistics.
What Can Go Wrong? Each chapter contains an innovative section called What
Can Go Wrong? that highlights the most common statistical errors and the mis-
conceptions people have about Statistics. The most common mistakes for the new
user of statistical methods involve misusing a method, not miscalculating a statistic.
Most of the mistakes we discuss have been experienced by the authors in a business
context rather than a classroom situation. One of our goals is to arm students with
the tools to detect statistical errors and to offer practice in recognizing when Sta-
tistics is misused, whether intentional or not. In this spirit, some of our exercises
probe the understanding of such errors.
By Hand. Even though we encourage the use of technology to calculate statistical
quantities, we realize the pedagogical benefits of doing a calculation by hand. The
By Hand boxes break apart the calculation of some of the simpler formulas and help
the student through the calculation of a worked example.
Reality Check. We regularly remind students that Statistics is about understand-
ing the world and making decisions with data. Results that make no sense are prob-
ably wrong, no matter how carefully we think we did the calculations. Mistakes are
often easy to spot with a little thought, so we ask students to stop for a reality check
before interpreting results.
Notation Alert. Throughout this book, we emphasize the importance of clear
communication. Proper notation is part of the vocabulary of Statistics, but it can
be daunting. Students who know that in algebra n can stand for any variable may
be surprised to learn that in Statistics n is always the sample size. Statisticians dedi-
cate many letters and symbols for specific meanings ( b, e, n, p, q, r, s, t, and z, along
with many Greek letters all carry special connotations). Students learn more effec-
tively when they are clear about the letters and symbols statisticians use.
Just Checking. To help students check their understanding of material they’ve
just read, we ask questions at points throughout the chapter. These questions are
a quick check and most involve little calculation. The answers are at the end of
the exercise sets in each chapter so students can easily check themselves to be sure
they understand the key ideas. The questions can also be used to motivate class
discussion.
Math Boxes. In many chapters, we present the mathematical underpinnings of the
statistical methods and concepts. Different students learn in different ways, and even
the same student can understand the material by more than one path. By setting

xxi
Preface
these proofs, derivations, and justifications apart from the narrative, we allow the
student to continue to follow the logical development of the topic at hand, yet also
make available the underlying mathematics for greater depth.
What Have We Learned? These chapter-ending summaries highlight new con-
cepts, define new terms introduced in the chapter, and list the skills that the stu-
dent should have acquired. Students can think of these as study guides. If they
understand the concepts in the summary, know the terms, and have the skills,
they’re probably ready for the exam.
Ethics in Action. Students are often surprised to learn that Statistics is not just
plugging numbers into formulas. Most statistical analyses require a fair amount of
judgment. The best guidance for these judgments is that we make an honest and
ethical attempt to learn the truth. Anything less than that can lead to poor and
even dangerous decisions. The Ethics in Action vignettes in each chapter illustrate
some of the judgments needed in statistical analyses, identify possible errors, link
the issues to widely accepted ethical guidelines in Statistics, and then propose ethi-
cally and statistically sound alternative approaches.
Exercises. We’ve worked hard to ensure that exercises contain relevant, modern,
and real-world questions. Many come from news stories; some come from recent
research articles. Whenever possible, the data are on MyLab Business Statistics (always
in a variety of formats) so students can explore them further. Sometimes, because
of the size of the data set, the data are only available electronically. Throughout the
book, we pair the exercises so that each odd-numbered exercise (with answer in the
back of the book) is followed by an even-numbered exercise on the same Statistics
topic. Exercises are roughly ordered within each chapter by both topic and by level
of difficulty.
Data Sources. Most of the data used in examples and exercises are from real-world
sources, and we list many sources in this edition. Whenever we can, we include ref-
erences to the internet data sources used, often in the form of URLs. As internet
users (and, thus, our students) know well, URLs can “break” as websites evolve.
To minimize the impact of such changes, we point as high in the address tree as
is practical. Moreover, the data themselves often change as more recent values
become available. The data we use are usually on MyLab Business Statistics. If you
seek the data—or an updated version of the data—on the internet, we try to direct
you to a good starting point.
Technology Help. In business, Statistics is practised with computers, but not with
a single software platform. Instead of emphasizing a particular statistics program,
at the end of each chapter, we summarize what students can find in the most com-
mon packages, often with annotated output. We then offer specific guidance for
one of the most common packages, Excel®, to help students get started with the
software of their choice.

Resources for Success
MyLab Business Statistics® Online Course A First Course,
2nd Canadian edition, Sharpe/De Veaux/Velleman/Berkowitz
(access code required)
MyLab Business Statistics is available to accompany Pearson’s market leading text offerings.
To give students a consistent tone, voice, and teaching method each text’s flavor and approach is
tightly integrated throughout the accompanying MyLab Business Statistics course, making learning
the material as seamless as possible.
New! Launch Exercise

Data in Excel
Students are now able to quickly
and seamlessly launch data sets from
exercises within MyLab Business Statistics
into a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet for
easy analysis. As always, students may
also copy and paste exercise data sets
into most other software programs.
Business Insight Videos

Ten engaging videos showing managers at top companies using
statistics in their everyday work. Assignable questions built in to
your MyLab Business Statistics course encourage discussion.
StatTalk Videos StatTalk sample video list:

These 24 conceptual videos to help you
• Sampling and Parameters
actually understand statistics.
Fun-loving statistician Andrew Vickers • Not the Normal Distribution
takes to the streets of Brooklyn, New • Regression
York, to demonstrate important statistical • Absolute vs. Relative Risk
concepts through interesting stories and
real-life events. These fun and engaging
videos will help students actually
understand statistical concepts.
www.pearson.com/mylab
xxii

Supplements
Technology Resources ment platform so that students can easily analyze data sets from
exercises and the text. In addition, Pearson |MyLab| Business
Statistics includes access to www.StatCrunch.com, a website
MyLab Business Statistics Online Course where users can access more than 15 000 shared data sets, con-
(access code required) duct online surveys, perform complex analyses using the pow-
erful statistical software, and generate compelling reports.
MyLab Business Statistics is a course management system that • Statistical Software Support: Knowing that students often
delivers proven results in helping individual students succeed. use external statistical software, we make it easy to copy our
• MyLab Business Statistics can be successfully implemented in data sets into software such as StatCrunch, Minitab, Excel,
any environment—lab-based, hybrid, fully online, t raditional— and more. Students have access to a variety of support tools—
and demonstrates the quantifiable difference that integrated Technology Tutorial Videos, Technology Study Cards, and
usage has on student retention, subsequent success, and overall Technology Manuals for select titles—to learn how to effec-
achievement. tively use statistical software.
• MyLab Business Statistics comprehensive online gradebook • Pearson eText: The Pearson eText gives students access to
automatically tracks students’ results on tests, quizzes, and their textbook anytime, anywhere. In addition to note taking,
homework, and in the study plan. Instructors can use the highlighting, and bookmarking, the Pearson eText offers inter-
gradebook to provide positive feedback or intervene if students active and sharing features. Instructors can share their com-
have trouble. Gradebook data can be easily exported to a vari- ments or highlights, and students can add their own, creating a
ety of spreadsheet programs, such as Microsoft Excel. You can tight community of learners within the class.
determine which points of data you want to export, and then
analyze the results to determine success.
MyLab Business Statistics provides engaging experiences that MathXL ® for Business Statistics Online
personalize, stimulate, and measure learning for each student. In
addition to the following resources, each course includes a full,
Course (access code required)
interactive online version of the accompanying textbook. MathXL ® is the homework and assessment engine that runs
MyLab Business Statistics. (MyLab Business Statistics is MathXL
• Data Sets: Data sets are available on MyLab Business Statistics plus a learning management system.) With MathXL for Business
and are formatted for use with Excel® and other statistics Statistics, instructors can create, edit, and assign online home-
software. work and tests using algorithmically generated exercises corre-
• Tutorial Exercises with Multimedia Learning Aids: lated at the objective level to the textbook, as well as
The homework and practice exercises in MyLab Business • Create and assign their own online exercises and import Test-
Statistics align with the exercises in the textbook, and they Gen tests for added f lexibility.
regenerate algorithmically to give students unlimited opportu- • Maintain records of all student work, tracked in MathXL’s
nity for practice and mastery. Exercises offer immediate helpful online gradebook.
feedback, guided solutions, sample problems, animations, vid-
eos, and eText clips for extra help at point of use. With MathXL for Business Statistics, students can
• StatTalk Videos: 24 Conceptual Videos to Help You Actually • Take chapter tests in MathXL and receive personalized study
Understand Statistics. Fun-loving statistician Andrew Vickers plans and/or personalized homework assignments based on
takes to the streets of Brooklyn, New York, to demonstrate their test results.
important statistical concepts through interesting stories and • Use the study plan and/or the homework to link directly to
real-life events. These fun and engaging videos will help stu- tutorial exercises for the objectives they need to study.
dents actually understand statistical concepts. Available with an • Access supplemental animations and video clips directly from
instructor’s user guide and assessment questions. selected exercises. Knowing that students often use external
• Business Insight Videos: Concept videos feature Deckers, statistical software, we make it easy to copy our data sets, both
Southwest Airlines, Starwood, and other companies and focus from the eText and the MyLab Business Statistics questions,
on statistical concepts as they pertain to the real world. into software like StatCrunch™, Minitab, Excel, and more.
• Getting Ready for Statistics: A library of questions now MathXL for Business Statistics is available to qualified adopters.
appears within each MyLab Business Statistics course to offer the
For more information, visit our website at www.mathxl.com, or
developmental math topics students need for the course. These
contact your Pearson representative.
can be assigned as a prerequisite to other assignments, if desired.
• Conceptual Question Library: In addition to algorithmi-
cally regenerated questions that are aligned with the textbook,
there is a library of 1000 conceptual questions available in the
Instructor Supplements
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tical understanding. for all end-of-chapter exercises as well as the Mini Case Study
• StatCrunchTM: MyLab Business Statistics integrates the web- Projects. Available within MyLab Business Statistics or at www.
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xxiii

xxiv Supplements
Instructor’s Resource Guide. This guide contains chapter- Computerized Test Bank. Pearson’s computerized test banks
by-chapter comments on the major concepts, tips on presenting allow instructors to filter and select questions to create quizzes,
topics (and what to avoid), teaching examples, suggested assign- test, or homework. Instructors can revise questions or add their
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pearson.com. Image Library. An image library with electronic copies of
Business Insight Video Guide to accompany Statistics. key figures and tables from the text is available within MyLab
Written to accompany the Business Insight Videos, this guide Business Statistics or at www.pearson.com.
includes a summary of the video, video-specific questions and
Learning Solutions Managers. Pearson’s Learning Solutions
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Managers work with faculty and campus course designers to
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A01_SHAR7740_02_SE_FM.indd 24 17/11/17 10:32 AM

Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
An extremely tough paper made from silk, a recent invention
of T. Oishi, a Japanese manufacturer, would be specially
useful for such a purpose....
It will be noticed that the texture is very compact and free
from pores, as might, indeed, be expected on account of the
fineness of the silk fibres of which it is composed. It must not
be forgotten that cotton fibres are tubes, and gas may pass
through them even when they are embedded in an
impermeable film. Silk fibres, on the other hand, are solid, as
well as stronger than cotton.
Another way in which a tough, flexible cement may be
utilised is to cement a metal foil to a textile fabric. Aluminium
foil, for instance, cemented to cotton by means of flexile
collodion, gives a completely impermeable fabric of much
greater suppleness than the sheet aluminium hitherto used for
balloons.
Fine aluminium flakes dusted upon the freshly varnished
surface adds greatly to the impermeability of the fabric, and
the same may be said of coarsely powdered mica.
It may be noted in this connection that an impermeable varnish

does not only apply to balloon and airship construction, but will also
have its use for impregnating the planes of the heavier-than-air
machines.
6. Great cost of airships.

The cost of airships compared with that of aëroplanes certainly
favours the extended use of the latter in war. It is easy to spend
£50,000 on a very large airship. Supposing the cost of an aëroplane
seating two persons is £1,000, it is a question from an economic
point of view whether the possession of fifty aëroplanes is not far
better military value for the money expended on the solitary airship.
But in the case of the latter it is not only initial expense that has to be
considered, but cost of housing, maintenance, and hydrogen gas.
These items are very considerable. The upkeep of one large airship
very much exceeds that incurred with fifty aëroplanes.
7. The great amount of personnel needed for the manipulation of

large airships.
It is no exaggeration to say that the ground manipulation of large
airships necessitates the attendance of quite an army. In the case of
a Zeppelin the exigencies of wind may call for the assistance of 300
trained sappers on landing. This is the reason why it is so advisable
to have the resting-places of large airships on water. In the case of
rigid airships a slight bump on the earth may do considerable
damage. Colonel Moedebeck has laid especial stress on the
advisability of water landing.
In practice it is never possible, even by working the motor

against the wind, to avoid a certain amount of bumping, since
the aërostatical equilibrium is not easily judged and allowed
for, especially in strong winds. On this account the safer water
landing is always preferable.
An airship can be anchored more easily with the point
against the wind on water. It is quite impossible to anchor on
land when assistance is not forthcoming to hold down the
airship. On water, also, the airship will give a little to side
winds and to alterations in the direction of the wind, without
overturning. On land this danger is not excluded, even with
rigid airships. Of course, a watertight and seaworthy car is a
necessary condition for landing on water.
The landing requires great attention, and rapid, decisive
handling and management on the part of the aëronaut.
In the opinion of the same expert airship travelling on a large

scale would not be possible without the publication of special charts,
which would furnish information concerning natural airship harbours,
and their relation to various winds, and also of the various airship
sheds which may be erected. He states it would be highly dangerous
to undertake airship voyages without the existence of suitable
stations against storms, and where gas supplies, driving material,
and ballast could be renewed.
8. Great liability of being destroyed by aëroplanes in war.

This is no doubt one of the greatest dangers the airship has to
face in war. The aëroplane is the airship’s deadliest enemy. So
terrible to the airship is this hornet of the air that the former has no
chance of making an attack. It must ever remain on the defensive.
The speed and quickly rising power of modern aëroplanes settles
this question. When the aëroplane is advancing the airship cannot
escape. Nor can it now any longer rise to safe altitude, for the
nimbler heavier-than-air machines can easily outdo it.
The only salvation of the attacked airship is its mitrailleuse gun
fixed on the platform at its topmost part, but the chance of hitting the
swiftly advancing aëroplane is fairly remote.
There are more ways than one in which the fatal attack of
aëroplane v. airship can be made. The airman can, indeed, ram the
gas-bags by hurling himself and machine against it. Then destruction
would be swift and sure, with the probable loss of the airman’s own
life. Better tactics would be to fly above, and drop suitable weapons
on the fragile gas-bag; a few sharp and jagged stones would
probably suffice. Sharp darts of steel would be all-effective. So easy,
indeed, would it be for one aëroplane skilfully handled to end the
existence of the largest airship that one cannot refrain from asking
the question whether on this account alone it can survive as the
instrument of war?
9. Insufficient power of quickly rising.

This is a point which wants the attention of the aëronautical
engineer. The old-fashioned spherical balloons were made to rise
and fall by the alternate sacrifice of gas and ballast. Thus the very
life-blood of the balloon became quickly exhausted. It was obvious
that when airships supplanted balloons the former must be supplied
with a less exhausting process of vertical movement.
As has already been mentioned, when treating of the Zeppelin
airship, for the purpose of rising horizontal planes are now fitted to
airships. Some engineers have thought these should be
supplemented by a mechanical device, so that the speed of rising
might be augmented. The late Baron de Bradsky provided his airship
with a horizontal screw placed beneath the car. But one horizontal
screw beneath an airship tends to twist it round—to convert it into an
aërial top. To avoid this effect it would be necessary to have two
horizontal screws rotating in opposite directions. This precaution was
absent in de Bradsky’s construction, and it kept on twisting round,
with the disastrous effect that the steel wires which held the car to
the balloon snapped, with tragic results. But the idea of the
horizontal screw is worth reviving. It has been a cherished plan of M.
Julliot to include the principle in his designs, but on account of extra
weight he has, I believe, hitherto not tried the interesting experiment.
The colour of most of the airships is a disadvantage, though this
is a matter so easy of alteration that it has not been included in the
list of disadvantages.
In military airships, and, it may be added, aëroplanes also, the
colour should be a neutral tint that is as invisible as possible against
the sky. Most of the airships have been made a glaring yellow, so
that the india-rubber in the envelopes may be better preserved from
the action of light. This protection may have to be sacrificed to the
overpowering advantages of invisibility in the case of naval and
military airships.
CHAPTER VI
THE ADVENT OF THE AËROPLANE
The year of 1908 will be memorable in aëronautical science for its

demonstration of the possibility of mechanical flight. Day after day in
France and America was then seen the spectacle of men flying in
the air, with a grace equal to that of the soaring bird. This was done
with a machine not raised by the buoyancy of a gas, but with one
that was heavier than the medium in which it travels, and whose
sustentation and direction was accomplished by dexterity and skill.
The experiments of the brothers Wright were new triumphs of man,
new examples of the old truths that a difficulty is a thing to be
overcome, and that the impossibility of to-day may be the
achievement of to-morrow. This progress in human flight was not the
result of any new discovery; it was the sequence of a long series of
experiments; nor was it one nation only that forged the links that
connected past researches to the successful issues of the present
century.
It is, however, not without honour to the British nation that one of
the fundamental principles of the biplane was proposed and
elucidated by a Briton in 1866. I refer to the important principle of
superposed surfaces advanced in that year by the late F. H.
Wenham. He pointed out that the lifting power of such a surface can
be most economically obtained by placing a number of small
surfaces above each other. Wenham built flying machines on this
principle with appliances for the use of his own muscular power. He
obtained valuable results as to the driving power of his superposed
surfaces, but he did not accomplish flight.
In 1872, H. von Helmholtz emphasised the improbability that
man would ever be able to drive a flying machine by his own
muscular exertion. After his statements there came a period of
stagnation in the attempts to navigate the air by bodies heavier than
air.
It is difficult to say how much aëronautical science owes to two
illustrious names—Sir Hiram Maxim and the late Professor Langley.
The two eminent men took up the subject of flight about the same
time in the last decade of the last century, and applied to it all the
scientific knowledge of the time. The flying machine had come to be
associated in the public mind with foolhardiness and failure. In the
discussion following Sir Hiram Maxim’s paper, “Experiments in
Aëronautics,” read before the Society of Arts on November 28th,
1894, he said, “At the time I took up this subject it was almost
considered a disgrace for anyone to think of it; it was quite out of the
question practically.” But these two scientific men stepped into the
breach, rescued aëronautics from a fallen position, and fired in its
cause the enthusiasm of men of light and leading.
Sir Hiram Maxim built the largest flying machine that had been
constructed. It spread 4,000 square feet of supporting surface, and
weighed 8,000 lb. The screw propellers were no less than 17 feet 11
inches in diameter, the width of the blade at the tip being 5 feet. The
boiler was of 363 h.p. The machine ran on wheels on a railway line,
and was restrained from premature flight by two wooden rails placed
on each side above the wheels. On one occasion, however, the
machine burst through the wooden rails and flew for 300 feet.
In 1896 Langley’s tandem-surfaced model aërodrome had luck
with the aërial currents, and flew for more than three-quarters of a
mile over the Potomac River. This machine had 70 square feet
supporting surface, weighed 72 lb., and had an engine of 1 h.p.,
weighing 7 lb. It is well known how, in later years, Langley
exaggerated his model into a machine which carried a man, and how
twice, when it was put to the test over water, at the very moment of
being launched, it caught in the launching ways and was pulled into
the water. It is interesting to note that the American aviator, Mr.
Curtiss, has lately unearthed the Langley flying machine, and flown
on it. Thus to Langley has come a posthumous aëronautical honour.
Lilienthal, in Germany, in considering equilibrium, experimented
with what are called gliding machines—aëroplanes which are
launched from some hillside against the wind, and depend upon
gravity for their motive power. In this way the art of balancing could
be practised on motorless gliders. With Lilienthal commenced the
age of systematic experimental flight; he made the discovery of the
driving forward of arched surfaces against the wind; he made some
2,000 glides, and sometimes from a height of 30 metres he glided
300 metres. The underlying principle of maintaining equilibrium in the
air has been recognised to be that the centre of pressure should at
all times be on the same vertical line as the centre of gravity due to
the weight of the apparatus. Lilienthal sought to keep his balance by
altering the position of his centre of gravity by movements of his
body. One day he was upset by a side gust and was killed. Pilcher, in
England, took up his work. With his soaring machines he made
some hundred glides, but he also made one too many. One day, in
1899, in attempting to soar from level ground by being towed by
horses, his machine broke, and he fell to the ground. He died shortly
afterwards, a British martyr of the air.
Mr. Octave Chanute’s experiments in 1896–1902 formed
important links in flight development. He first introduced the vital
principle of making the surfaces movable instead of the aviator, and
he made use of superposed surfaces. Though his work was a stage
in the development of the flying machine, it was reserved to two
other geniuses, the brothers Wright, to bring flight to a point of
progress where prejudiced critics would be for ever silenced.
The brothers Wright first carried out laboratory experiments; they
then, in 1900, first began to experiment with gliding machines at Kitty
Hawk, North Carolina. With the comparatively small surfaces (15.3
square metres) they used in that year, they endeavoured to raise the
machine by the wind like a kite; but finding that it often blew too
strongly for such a system to be practical, in 1901 they abandoned
the idea and resorted to gliding flight.
These machines of 1901 had two superposed surfaces, 1.73
metres apart, each being 6.7 metres from tip to tip, 2.13 metres
wide, and arched 1-19th. The total supporting surface was 27 square
metres. They dispensed with the tail which previous experimenters
had considered necessary. Instead, they introduced into their
machine two vital principles, upon which not only the success of their
preliminary gliding experiments depended, but also their later ones
with their motor-driven aëroplanes—(1) the hinged horizontal rudder
in front for controlling the vertical movements of the machine; (2) the
warping or flexing of one wing or the other for steering to right or left.
Later, a vertical rudder was also added for horizontal steering.
The combined movements of these devices maintained equilibrium.
The importance of the system of torsion of the main carrying
surfaces cannot be overestimated. We have only to look to nature for
its raison d’être, and observe a flight of seagulls over the sea: how
varied are the flexings of nature’s aëroplanes in their wondrous
manœuvrings to maintain and recover equilibrium! Since the
appearance of the Wright motor-driven aëroplane, the principle of
moving either the main surface or attachments to the main surface
has been very generally adopted in other types of flying machines. A
feature of these early experiments was the placing of the operator
prone upon the gliding machine, instead of in an upright position, to
secure greater safety in alighting, and to diminish the resistance.
This, however, was only a temporary expedient while the Wrights
were feeling their way. In the motor-driven aëroplanes the navigator
and his companion were comfortably seated. After the experiments
of 1901, the Wrights carried on laboratory researches to determine
the amount and direction of the pressures produced by the wind
upon planes and arched surfaces exposed at various angles of
incidence. They discovered that the tables of the air pressures which
had been in use were incorrect. Upon the results of these
experiments they produced, in 1902, a new and larger machine. This
had 28.44 square metres of sustaining surfaces—about twice the
area that previous experimenters had dared to handle. The machine
was first flown as a kite, so that it might be ascertained whether it
would soar in a wind having an upward trend of a trifle over seven
degrees; and this trend was found on the slope of a hill over which
the current was flowing. Experiment showed that the machine
soared under these circumstances whenever the wind was of
sufficient force to keep the angle of incidence between four and eight
degrees. Hundreds of successful glides were made along the full
length of this slope, the longest being 22½ feet, and the time 26
seconds. A motor and screw propellers were then applied in place of
gravity, in 1903, and four flights made, the first lasting 12 seconds,
and the last 59 seconds, when 260 metres were covered at a height
of two metres.
In 1904, several hundred flights were made, some being circular.
All this work was carried on in a secluded spot and unpublished. In
December, 1905, the world was startled by the news that the
brothers Wright had flown for 24¼ miles in half an hour, at a speed
of 38 miles an hour. More than this at the time the brothers would not
say, and for three years the world thirsted for the fuller knowledge
only revealed in 1908. In the interval some went so far as to distrust
the statements of the brothers Wright; but those who, like myself,
had had the privilege of correspondence with them from their first
experiments felt the fullest confidence that every statement they had
made was fact.
I have somewhat dwelt on the preliminary experiments of the
brothers Wright with their gliding structures as indicating the rapidity
of progress attained when sound scientific method is combined with
practical experiment. Too often in the past there has been a
tendency amongst the workers in science to keep theory and
practice apart. They are, however, interdependent. Each has a
corrective influence on the other.
To the labours of the Wright brothers we certainly owe the advent
of the mobile and truly efficient military air scout. It is their efforts that
have revolutionised warfare. In the present war we see only the
beginnings of what will one day be; but they are none the less truly
prophetic.
It was the enthusiastic Captain Ferber, who later became a
victim to his ardour for aërial achievement, who realised what the
brothers Wright had accomplished for military aëronautics. The latter
having entered into communications with the French Government
respecting the sale of their machines, Captain Ferber was deputed
by the French Government to go to America and report on their
claims. As the brothers Wright at that time so carefully guarded the
secrecy of their details, he was not allowed to see the machine when
he arrived, and had to be content with the mere hearsay of certain
persons at Ohio, who had witnessed their flights. But he had
sufficient faith in the brothers Wright to recommend the French
Government to buy their invention.
The negotiations, however, fell through at the time, but in 1908
Wilbur Wright came to France to carry on experiments at Le Mans,
while his brother, Mr. Orville Wright, went to Fort Myers in America.
In Wilbur Wright’s machine at Le Mans, the two superposed
slightly concave surfaces were about 12.50 metres long and 2
metres wide. They were separated by a distance of 1.80 metres. At a
distance of 3 metres from the main supporting surfaces was the
horizontal rudder for controlling the vertical motions; this was
composed of two oval superposed planes. At 2.50 metres in front of
the main supporting surfaces was the vertical rudder, composed of
two vertical planes.
The 25 h.p. motor was placed on the lower aëro-surface; this
weighed ninety kilogrammes. At the left of the motor were the two
seats, side by side, for the aëronaut and his companion. The two
wooden propellers at the back of the machine were 2.50 metres in
diameter. They revolved at the rate of 450 revolutions per minute.
The area of the sustaining surfaces was fifty square metres. The
weight of the whole machine (with aviator) was about 450
kilogrammes. Levers under the control of the aviator regulated the
various functions of the machine, the flexing of the carrying surfaces,
the movements of the horizontal rudders, the vertical rudder, etc.
Soon after the experiments at Le Mans had commenced there
came the news of the accident to Mr. Orville Wright’s machine in
America, in which the latter’s leg was broken and Lieutenant
Selfridge was killed. This was a critical moment for aëronautical
science. I can myself bear witness to its depressing effect on an
illustrious aëronautical assemblage, for I was myself present at
Wilbur Wright’s aëroplane shed when the telegram came bearing the
sad news. The sacrifice of one life at that moment seemed to
counterbalance the advantages gained by the triumph of the
brothers Wright. Even Wilbur Wright himself seemed to half repent
he had conquered the air! He exclaimed, “It seems all my fault.” It
was, indeed, then little thought what the future toll of the air would
have to be.
Fortunately for aëronautical progress, two days afterwards
Wilbur Wright recovered his nerve, and made the convincing flight of
1 hour 31 minutes 25 4-5th seconds.
From that day onwards there has been an increasing flow of
progress in the mastery of the air.
CHAPTER VII
TYPES OF AËROPLANES
France has indeed been the breeding-place for types of aëroplanes.

From France have the nations of late been largely gathering them—
save Germany. She has preferred to evolve her own distinctive
types. Even before Wilbur Wright appeared with his machine at Le
Mans and the details were known, hearsay of his doings had fired
the French imagination to do what he had done. In ignorance of the
vital principle of movable surfaces that the Wrights had evolved,
there came into existence the unbending, rigid type that was not
destined to survive.
The first of these was the bird of prey of M. Santos Dumont.
Rudely simple was it in its construction. Two box kites formed the
supporting surface. In the centre was the motor, with the screw
behind. To attain flight the machine was run upon wheels along the
ground until a certain speed was reached, when the machine rose
into the air. With this the inventor did not do much more than make
aërial jumps; but rude as it was it contained one feature which has
since been retained in all aëroplanes. In this one respect it was an
advance—and a very necessary one—upon the Wright machine.
That feature was the attachment of wheels to the machine that has
been mentioned above. This was, indeed, an important step in the
evolution of the aërial scout. Had it been necessary to continue using
the external starting catapults that were a feature of the early
experiments of the Wrights, the application of the aëroplane to
warfare would have been somewhat limited.
The well-known Voisin machine was another outcome of this
period, but, imperfect as it was, it brought Mr. Henry Farman into
fame, for on it he was the first man in Europe to fly any distance
worthy of mention.
The Farman Biplane.

Discontented with the Voisin machine, Mr. Henry Farman
constructed one of his own design. Though it appeared at an early
stage of aëroplane development, it still remains one of the most
efficient types of biplanes. It has been used enormously in France,
and armoured Farmans play an important part in the great war that is
proceeding.
Mr. Farman quickly realised that for maintaining lateral stability
the vertical planes fitted between the main planes of the Voisin type
were a very poor substitute for the wing-warping method of the
brothers Wright. He, however, produced the movement of the main
surfaces in an original manner. He hinged small flaps to the rear
extremities of the main planes. These he called “ailerons.” They
produce much the same effect as the wing-warping method of the
brothers Wright. When the biplane tilted sideways, the flaps were
drawn down on the side that was depressed. The pressure of the air
on the flaps forced the aëroplane back on an even keel. In the
normal condition the flaps flew out straight in the wind on a level with
the main planes. Another noticeable feature of Mr. Farman’s
machine was the production of the first light and efficient landing
chassis. This was a combination of wooden skids and bicycle
wheels. Below the biplane, on wooden uprights, he fitted two long
wooden skids. On either side of each skid he placed two little
pneumatic tyred bicycle wheels, connected by a short axle. These
were held in position on the skid by stout rubber bands passing over
the axle.
In a general way the wheels raised the skids from the ground,
but if the ascent was abrupt the wheels were forced against the
rubber bands and the skids came in contact with the ground. With
the abatement of the force of the shock the wheels came again into
play.
Simplification of the chassis is becoming evident in the latest
forms of all military aëroplanes, the reduction of weight in this portion
of the apparatus being important.
To Mr. Farman belongs the credit of having first applied to his
aëroplane the now famous Gnome motor, in which seven or more
cylinders revolve. It can truly be said that the influence of this motor
on facilitating flight generally, and very particularly military aviation,
has been nothing short of prodigious. The aëroplane, like the airship,
had to wait for the light petroleum motor. Its advent made flight
possible, but achievement in flight would have been comparatively
small had it not been for the welcome appearance of a motor
specially adapted to the purpose.
The early forms of aëroplane engines in which the cylinders
were fixed had proved to be quite unreliable owing to the high
speeds at which the engines had to work. Overheating, loss of
power, and stopping were frequent occurrences. The water-cooling
and air-cooling systems introduced were equally inefficient. The very
fact that the cylinders of the Gnome motor revolved effected the
desideratum of automatic cooling, and also gave a smooth, even
thrust to the propeller.
If the aëroplanes in the present war were flying over the enemy’s
lines with old-fashioned engines, they would be dropping down into
hostile hands as quickly as dying flies from the ceiling on the first
winter days.
After the introduction of the Gnome motor, it was quickly realised
that the speeds secured by its use gave the aëroplane a stability that
was absent in the more slowly moving machines. Winds that were
the bugbear of the aëroplanists could then be combated, and the
aëroplane ceased to be the fine-weather machine. Heights could
then be climbed that a little while before were undreamt of. It is said
that there are some disadvantages in the case of revolving cylinders
—that they have been known to produce a gyroscopic effect that has
upset the machine. This, however, is a somewhat doubtful point. It
may be urged that the greater silence of motors with fixed cylinders
is an advantage in war. This may sometimes be so, and it is quite
possible that for offensive aëroplanes a special type of motor may be
in the future evolved.
To return to the other features of the Farman machine. The plan
he adopted in his racing machines of making the upper plane larger
than the lower one was a valuable step in speed-producing
machines.
The records won by Mr. Farman with his machines alone testify
to its efficiency. Often he has held the world’s records of distance,
duration, and height, wrestling, indeed, for these with the Blériot
monoplane.
In 1911 Mr. Farman began to make types of biplanes specially
designed for military use, and in which he studied how he could best
give the observing officer an unobstructed view of the ground
beneath him. He placed both pilot and observer in seats projecting in
front of the main planes. He also made a new departure in placing
his upper plane in advance of the lower one. He claimed that this
facilitates climbing and descent. He has, however, quite lately
evolved a newer type of scouting machine.
In this the lower plane is only one-third the span of the upper
one. The nacelle is not mounted on the lower plane, as in the
ordinary types of his machine, but, instead, strung from the main
spars of the top one. The usual chassis is absent. There is a single
running wheel mounted at each end of the lower plane, which is
brought very close to the ground. The upper and lower planes are
separated by four pairs of struts. The tail is similar to that used on
the ordinary type.
The following are the dimensions of one of the latest 1914 types
of one-seated Farman machines:—
Length 3.75 metres
Span 11.50 metres
Area 26 sq. metres
Weight (total) 290 kgs.
„ (useful) 175 kgs.
Motor 80 h.p. Gnome
Speed 110 km. per hour
The following are the details of one of his high-power

hydroplanes (1914):—
Length 8.80 metres

Span 18.08 metres
Area 50 sq. metres
Weight (total) 605 kgs.
„ (useful) 275 kgs.
Maximum speed 105 km. per hour
[Topical Press.
A BLÉRIOT MONOPLANE IN FLIGHT,
showing one of the two wings attached to the tubular body of machine, chassis,
stabilising plane, and rudder at rear.
The Blériot Monoplane.

At the same time that Mr. Henry Farman was making his first
flights on his biplanes, M. Blériot was experimenting with
monoplanes. His first attempts were disastrous. Time after time he
was dashed to the ground. But he persevered, and produced a
machine which by its performance staggered the aëronautical world.
When he was first experimenting most people thought that it was
in superposed surfaces that success alone lay. They forgot the
researches of Langley. These had showed that support depended on
two factors—speed and surface; that when speed is increased a less
supporting surface will suffice. The success of Blériot took the world
by surprise. If I were asked to name the men who have done most to
further practical aëronautical development, I should unhesitatingly
say: 1, the brothers Wright; 2, Blériot; 3, Pégoud.
The first have been already dealt with. I will speak of the two
latter together.
Of the work of both there has been one underlying characteristic
—simplicity. The former has produced a machine stripped indeed of
encumbering complexities, in which the restriction of accessories to
what is absolutely necessary is carried to a fine art; the latter with
that very machine has performed experiments in the air that the most
sanguine enthusiast of a few years back would have deemed far
beyond the region of the possible. In his graceful air diving, looping
the loop, and flying upside down, he gave the world a great object-
lesson of the materiality of air. He showed the air can give the aviator
as much support as the water can to a fancy swimmer. He showed
that if the aëroplane is an unstable thing, the human brain can
supply the stability; that in human flight, like the bird and its wings,
the machine and individual can be in closest touch. No one has
stripped the air of its terrors as has M. Pégoud. In the yielding air
there is indeed safety! It is the ground the aviator has to fear!
I have spoken of the simplicity of the Blériot monoplane. In the
machine with which M. Blériot flew over the Channel in 1909,
stretched like the wings of a bird on either side of a tubular wooden
frame partly covered with canvas and tapering to the rear, are placed
the two supporting planes, rounded at the ends. At the front end is
placed the motor (in the original type a three-cylindered engine, now
replaced by the Gnome motor), geared direct to a 6 feet 6 inches
wooden propeller, and on a level with the rear end of the planes.
Immediately behind the engine is the petrol tank, and behind that the
aviator’s seat. Near the rear end of the frame and underneath it is
the fixed tail, with two movable elevating tips. How simple is the
working of this monoplane! Moving a lever backwards and forwards
actuates the tips of the fixed tail at the back of the machine, and
causes it to rise or fall. Moving the same lever from side to side
warps the rear surfaces of the supporting planes. The act of pushing
from side to side a bar on which the aviator’s feet rest puts the
rudder into action and steers the machine.
The triumphs of the Blériot monoplane would fill many pages. It
was the first machine to fly over an expanse of water—the Channel.
Later, it carried M. Prior from London to Paris without a stop,
traversing 250 miles in three hours 56 minutes, beating the
performances of the fleetest express trains by three hours. If it no
longer for the moment holds the record of height, which it has so
often done, it carried M. Garros up to a height of 5,000 metres.
When his engine broke down at that prodigious height, by its superb
gliding powers it brought him safely to earth!
It has flown over the Alpine peaks! It carried the first aëroplane
post—1,750 letters and cards—from Hendon to Windsor in
seventeen minutes!
In 1911 Blériot No. XI. flew with ten persons on board.
Its past records have indeed fitted it to be a military machine. It is
doubtlessly destined to play an important rôle in the present war in
the hands of the French aviators. Especially suitable is this type for
the one-seated military machine. Often it may be desirable to employ
a two-seated machine to carry pilot and observer; but there is often,
too, a use for the single-seated type of machine flying at a rate of
some eighty miles an hour. The work of these observers is to make
swift dashes over the enemy’s lines, make a speedy reconnaissance
of the enemy’s position, and return at once to headquarters with
what information has been obtained.
The following are the dimensions, etc., of the 1914 type of
armoured Blériot monoplanes:—
Length 6.15 metres

Span 10.10 metres
Area 19 sq. metres
Motor 80 h.p. Gnome
Speed 100 km. per hour
The Antoinette Monoplane.

There is another monoplane that will figure in the history of
aëronautics—the Antoinette monoplane. This was the first flying
machine to fly in a wind. Up to the time that Mr. Latham went to the
flying meeting at Blackpool, which took place almost immediately
after the famous Rheims meeting, aviators had only dared to fly in
calm weather. On the flying grounds there used to be tiny flags on
posts. When the flags hung down limply that was the time for flying.
When they moved about, even languidly, that was the time to put the
aëroplane to rest in its shed. Aviators then underestimated the
capabilities of their own machines.
When the aviators came to England the island breezes kept the
little flags vigorously moving about. The aviators were consternated.
The public was disappointed. It began to regard flight as a calm-
weather business. Aëroplanes could not face one breath of wind! Of
what practical use would they ever be!
Latham at that time had his Antoinette monoplane at Blackpool.
It consisted of large and strongly built wings, giving a surface of
about 575 square feet, set at a dihedral angle. The motor was some
60 h.p. At the back of the body of the machine were fixed horizontal
and vertical fins. There were hinged horizontal planes at the end of
the tail for elevating or lowering the machine. “Ailerons” were used
on the main surface for controlling lateral stability. One day, at
Blackpool, Latham went up in a very high wind, and remained in the
air for a considerable time. How much of the stability of his machine
was due to his dexterity, or how much to the machine, it is difficult to
say. Probably the fact that the wings were set at a dihedral angle had
much to do with it. He also had a much larger horse power than his
contemporaries, which no doubt contributed to his success. Anyhow,
by the Antoinette monoplane flight was redeemed from the reproach
that it was merely a pastime for ideal weather conditions. From that
time aviators have sought the winds as well as the calms. Now
aircraft can fly in winds of forty-eight or even fifty miles an hour! This
step of Latham gave a great impetus towards the military adoption of
the aëroplane. The military and naval mind tends to despise what is
only of use in the most favourable conditions. It had put aside the

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It may be noted in this connection that an impermeable varnish

6. Great cost of airships.

7. The great amount of personnel needed for the manipulation of

In practice it is never possible, even by working the motor

In the opinion of the same expert airship travelling on a large

8. Great liability of being destroyed by aëroplanes in war.

9. Insufficient power of quickly rising.

The year of 1908 will be memorable in aëronautical science for its

France has indeed been the breeding-place for types of aëroplanes.

The Farman Biplane.

The following are the details of one of his high-power

Length 8.80 metres

The Blériot Monoplane.

Length 6.15 metres

The Antoinette Monoplane.

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