Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Roxy Peck
Tom Short
Chris Olsen
.
u or lOS
ROXY PECK is Emerita Associate Dean member of the AP( Statistics Development Committee.
of the College of Sci巳nee and Mathematics He has also served on the Board of Directors of the
and Professor of Statistics Emerita at American Statistical Association. Tom treasures the
California Polytechnic State University, time he shares with his children and the many
San Luis Obispo. A faculty member at adventures experienced with his wife, Darlene.
Cal Poly from 1979 until 2009, Roxy
served for 6 years as Chair of the Statistics Department CHRIS OLSEN taught statistics in
before becoming Associate Dean, a position she held for Cedar Rapids, Iowa, for over 25 years,
13 years. She received an M.S. in Mathematics and a and at Cornell College and Grinnell Col-
Ph.D. in Applied Statistics from the University of 『 lege. Chris is a past member (twice!) of
California, Riverside. Roxy is nationally known in the the Advanced Placement® Statistics Test
area of statistics education, and she was presented with Development Committee and has been a
the Lifetime Achievement Award in Statistics Education table leader and question leader at the AP® Statistics
at the U.S. Conference on Teaching Statistics in 2009. reading for 11 years. He is a long-t扫ne consultant to the
In 2003 she received the American Statistical Associa- College Board, and Chris has led workshops and insti-
tion ’ s Founder ’ s Award, recognizing her contributions to tutes for AP® Statistics teachers in the United States and
K-12 and undergraduate statistics education. She is a internationally. Chris was the Iowa recipient of the
Fellow of the American Statistical Association and an Presidential Award for Excellence in Science and Math-
elected member of the International Statistics Institute. ematics Teaching in 1986, a regional awardee of the
Roxy served for 5 years as the Chief Reader for the IBM Computer Teacher of the Year in 1988, and re-
Advanced Placement (AP®) Statistics Exam and has ceived the Siemens Award for Advanced Placement in
chaired the American Statistical Association ’ s Joint mathematics in 1999. Chris is a 仕equent contributor to
Committee with the National Council of Teachers of and is moderator of the AP® Statistics Teacher Commu-
Mathematics on Curriculum in Statistics and Probability nity online. He is currently a member of the editorial
for Grades K-12 and the Section on Statistics Educa- board of Teaching Statistics. Chris graduated from Iowa
tion. In addition to her texts in introductory statistics, State University with a m勾 or in mathematics. While ac-
Roxy is also co-editor of Statistical Case Studies: A qu让ing graduate degrees at the University of Iowa, he
Collaboration Between Academe and Industry and a concentrated on statistics, computer programming and
member of the editorial board for Statistics: A Guide to psychometrics. In his spare time he enjoys reading and
the Unknown, 4th edition. Outside the classroom, Roxy hiking. He and his wife have a daughter, Anna, a
likes to travel and spends her spare time reading mystery Caltech graduate in Civil Engineering. She is a risk
novels. She also collects N av勾o rugs and heads to modeler at RMS, the world ’ s leading catastrophe risk
Arizona and New Mexico whenever she can 自nd the time. modeling company.
IV
rie onrenrs
6 Probability 277
Index 845
v
onrenrs
VII
viii Contents
XIII
xiv Preface
............、 ...
Step 1: Step 2: Step 3:
Acknowledging Describing l 阶obabi p Drawing
Variability一 Variability the Connection ...illlll Conclusions
Collecting Data
in Sensible Ways
in the Data-
Descriptive
~ ....... in a 飞"lay That
Recognizes
Statistics Variability in
the Data
Advanced Placement Statistics in our high schools, the graphing calculator is the only
dependable access to statistical technology.
This text allows the instructor to balance the use of computers and calculators in a
manner consistent with his or her philosophy. As with computer packages, our exposi-
tion avoids assuming the use of a particular calculator and presents the calculator ca-
pabilities in a generic format. For those using a TI graphing calculator, there is a
technology manual available in the online materials that accompany this text.
6. Use assessments to improve and evaluate student learning.
Assessment materials in the form of a test bank, quizzes, and chapter exams are avail-
able in the instructor resources that accompany this text. The items in the test bank
reflect the data-in-context philosophy of the text ’ s exercises and examples.
Advanced Placement®Statistics
We have designed this book with a particular eye toward the syllabus of the Advanced
Placement®Statistics course and the needs of high school teachers and students. Concerns
expressed and questions asked in teacher workshops and on the AP® Statistics teacher
community have strongly influenced our explanation of certain topics, especially in the
area of experimental design and probability. We have taken great care to provide precise
definitions and clear examples of concepts that Advanced Placement®Statistics instructors
have acknowledged as difficult for their students. We have also expanded the variety of
examples and exercises, recognizing the diverse potential futures envisioned by very
capable students who have not yet focused on a college m勾 or. The AP®edition of this text
also contains a collection of multiple choice and free response questions that can be used
to help students review for the AP® Statistics exam.
Topic Coverage
Our book can be used in courses as short as one quarter or as long as one year in duration.
Particularly in shorter courses, an instructor will need to be selective in deciding which
topics to include and which to set aside. The book divides naturally into four m勾 or sec-
tions: collecting data and descriptive methods (Chapters l一匀, probability (Chapters 6-8),
the basic one- and two-sample inferential techniques (Chapters 9-12), and more advanced
inferential methodology (Chapters 13-16).
We include an early chapter (Chapter 5) on descriptive methods for bivariate numerical
data. This early exposure introduces questions and issues that should stimulate student inter-
est in the subject. It is also advantageous for those teaching courses in which time con-
straints preclude covering advanced inferential material. However, this chapter can easily be
postponed until the basics of inference have been covered, and then combined with Chapter
13 for a unified treatment of regression and correlation.
With the possible exception of Chapter 5, Chapters 1 through 10 should be covered in
order. We anticipate that most instructors will then continue with two-sample inference
(Chapter 11) and methods for categorical data analysis (Chapter l匀, although regression
could be covered before either of these topics. Optional portions of Chapter 14 (multiple
regression) and Chapter 15 (analysis of variance) and Chapter 16 (nonparametric methods)
are included in the online materials that accompany this text.
A Note on Probability
The content of the probability chapters is consistent with the Advanced Placement®
Statistics course description. It includes both a traditional treatment of probabi且ty and
probability distributions at an introductory level, as well as a section on the use of simula-
tion as a tool for estimating probabilities. For those who prefer a more informal treatment
of probabilit弘 see the text St,α tistics: Learning from Dαta, Second Edition, by Roxy Peck
and Tom Short.
Preface XVII
In This Edition
Look for the following in the Sixth Edition:
• NE明F Updated Examples and Exercises. In our continuing effort to keep things
interesting and relevant, the sixth edition contains many updated examples and exer-
cises that use data from recent journal articles, newspapers, and web posts, on topics
of interest to students.
• NEW Sections on Randomization-Based Inference Methods. Research indi-
cates that randomization-based instruction in statistical inference may help learn-
ers to better understand the concepts of confidence and significance. The sixth
edition includes new optional sections on randomization-based inference methods.
These methods are also particularly useful in that they provide an alternative
method of analysis that can be used when the conditions required for normal
distribution-based inference are not met. The inference chapters (Chapters 9-11 )
now contain new optional sections on randomization-based inference that include
bootstrap methods for simulation-based confidence intervals and randomization-
based tests of hypotheses. These new sections are accompanied by online Shiny
apps, which can be used to construct bootstrap confidence intervals and to carry
out randomization tests.
• Helpful hints in exercises. To help students who might be having trouble getting
started, hints have been added to many of the exercises directing students to relevant
examples in the text.
• Margin notes to highlight the importance of context and the process of data
analysis. Margin notations appear in appropriate places in the examples. These in-
clude Understanding the context, Consider the data, Formulate a plαn, Do the work,
and Interpret the results. These notes are designed to increase student awareness of
the steps in the data analysis process.
• Activities at the end of each chapter. These activities can be used as a chapter
capstone or can be integrated at appropriate places as the chapter material is covered
in class.
• Advanced topics that are often omitted in a one-quarter or one-semester course,
such as survey design (Section 2.6), logistic regression (Section 5.6), inference
based on the estimated regression line (Sections 13.4 and 13.5), inference and vari-
able selection methods in multiple regression (Sections 14.3 and 14.4), analysis of
variance for randomized block and two-factor designs (Sections 15.3 and 15.4), and
distribution-free procedures (Chapter 16) are available in the online materials
that accompany this text.
• Updated materials for instructors are included on the Instructor Companion Site.
In addition to the usual instructor supplements such as a complete solutions manual
and a test bank, the website contains examples that can be incorporated into classroom
presentations and cross-references to resources such as Fathom, Workshop Statistics,
and Against All Odds . Of particular interest to those teaching Advanced Placement
Statistics, the website also includes additional data analysis questions of the type
encountered on the free response portion of the Advanced Placement exam, as well as
a collection of model responses.
飞离TebAssign
J 飞 WEBASSIGN
WebAssign for Peck/Short/Olsen ’ s Introduction to Statistics and Data Analysis, 6th Edi-
‘ ~ From ( engage tion, is a flexible and fully customizable online instructional solution that puts powerful
tools in the hands of instructors, empowering you to deploy assignments, instantly assess
individual student and class perfor古1ance, and help your students master the course con-
cepts. With WebAssign ’ s powerful digital platform and Introduction to Probability and
Statistics specific content, you can tailor your course with a wide range of assignment
settings, add your own questions and content, and access student and course analytics and
communication tools. Learn more at www.webassign.com.
WebApps
A collection of easy to use web apps is available at statistics.cengage.com/PS06e/Apps
.html. This collection includes apps that support new sections on bootstrap confidence
intervals and randomization tests, as well as apps that help students visualize the meaning
of confidence level and to understand the concept of sampling variability.
Student Resources
Digital
公 CENGAGE
To access additional course materials and companion resources, please visit
www.cengage.com. At the Cengage.com home page, search for the ISBN of your title
(from the back cover of your book) using the search box at the top of the page. This will
take you to the product page where free companion resources can be found.
• Complete step-by-step instructions for JM贝 TI-84 Graphing Calculator飞 Excel,
Minitab, and SPSS.
• Data sets in Excel, ASCII-comma, ASCII-tab, JMP, Minitab, R, SAS, and SPSS file
formats indicated by the • icon throughout the text.
• Applets used in the Activities found in the text.
Print
Student Solutions Manual (ISBN: 978-1-337-79417-6): The Student Solutions Manual,
prepared by Stephen Miller, contains fully worked-out solutions to all of the odd-numbered
exercises in the text, giving students a way to check their answers and ensure that they took
the co町ect steps to arrive at an answer.
Preface XIX
Instructor Resources
Print
Annotated Instructor’s Edition (ISBN: 978-1-337-79415-2大 The Annotated Instructor’ S
Edition contains answers for all exercises, including those not found in the answer section of
the student edition. There also are suggested assignments and teaching tips for each section
in the book, along with an annotated table of contents with comments written by Roxy Peck.
AP®Teacher ’s Resource Binder: The Teacher’ s Resource Binder, prep缸ed by Chris Olsen,
is full of wonderful resources for both college professors and AP® Statistics teachers.
These include
• Additional examples from published sources (with references), classified by chapter
in the text. These examples can be used to enrich your classroom discussions.
• Model responses-examples of responses that can serve as a model for work that
would be likely to receive a high mark on the AP® exam.
• A collection of data explorations written by Chris Olsen that can be used throughout
the year to help students prepare for the types of questions that they may encounter
on the investigative task on the AP® Statistics Exam.
• Advice to AP® Statistics teachers on preparing students for the AP® Exam, written
by Brian Kotz.
• Activity worksheets, prepared by Carol Marchetti, that can be duplicated and used
in class.
• A list of additional resources for activities, videos, and computer demonstrations,
cross-referenced by chapter.
• A test bank that includes assessment items, quizzes, and chapter exams written by
Chris Olsen, Josh Tabor, and Peter Flanagan-Hyde.
Online
• Instructor Companion Site: Everything you need for your course in one place! This
collection of book-specific lecture and class tools is available online via www.cengage
.com/login. Access and download PowerPoint presentations, images, instructor’ s
manual, and more.
• Cengage Learning Testing Powered by Cognero (ISBN: 978-1-337-79423-7) is a
flexible, online system that allows you to author, edit, and manage test bank content,
create multiple test versions in an instant, and deliver tests from your LMS , your
classroom or wherever you want. This is available online via www.cengage.com
/login.
• Complete Solutions Manual This manual contains solutions to all exercises from
the text, including Chapter Review Exercises and Cumulative Review Exercises.
This manual can be found on the Instructor Companion Site.
Acknowledgments
We are grateful for the thoughtful feedback from the following reviewers that has helped
to shape this text over the last three editions:
AP® is a trademark registered by the College Board, which is not affiliated with, and does not endorse this product.
XX Preface
We would also like to express our thanks and gratitude to those whose support made this
sixth edition possible:
• Cassie Van Der Laan, Product Manager
• Brendan Killion and Abby DeVeuve, Content Managers
• Elinor Gregory, Learning Designer
• Lori Hazza时, our senior project manager at MPS Limited
• Stephen Miller for his work in creating new student and instructor solutions manu-
als to accompany the text
• A. Palanisamy, for checking the accuracy of examples and solutions
• Carolyn Crockett and Molly Taylor, our former editors at Cengage, for their support
on the previous editions of this book
And, as always, we thank our families, friends, and colleagues for their continued
support.
Roxy Peck
Tom Short
Chris Olsen
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
Singulares expressões na bocca do dictador erguido por uma
revolução, do homem do Campo-de-Ourique, no dia da Belemzada,
á frente da guarda-nacional contra o throno! Singulares expressões
que se diriam uma apotheose do governo cartista, sentado alli a
ouvil-o, a apoial-o de certo: elle que em nome da legalidade
restaurara a carta, chamando a todo o periodo setembrista um
crime contra a lei.
Lei, legalidade: mas qual? Se se discute a origem do proprio
poder. Onde está? no throno como uns querem, reconhecendo a
carta que o throno deu; ou no povo, como querias, oh nobre,
inconsequente orador? Como póde haver lei, quando se discute a
propria origem da authoridade que dá força ás leis?—Passos
protestava, sim, contra as sedições militares, não queria «corôas de
louros»; mas desde que a origem tradicional do poder se contestara;
desde que a nova origem, democratica, não podia enraizar-se, como
o provára a historia de 36-39; desde que vingava o
constitucionalismo hybrido em que a authoridade, nem por ter (ou
antes por isso mesmo) duas fontes, deixa de ser uma anarchia
doutrinaria; desde que, finalmente, a victoria da liberdade fôra um
acaso—que podia ser a vida do paiz senão uma serie de sedições e
revoltas?
Triste, desoladora sorte, a de Portugal! Nem homens, nem
systemas, nem a propria religião nova, da liberdade vingava! Não
era para descrer da patria? Não era para interrogar a historia, a vêr
se nós não seriamos um erro—como tantos!—que o tempo arrasta
pelos seculos?
Sou franco. Fui sempre grande partidista da união de
Hespanha a Portugal: desejava muito que a politica não
separasse por mais tempo aquelles que a natureza tinha
unido. No estado actual da Europa as nações pequenas
soffrem muito. Era bello vêr a rica peninsula iberica
representar no mundo como grande potencia, como nação
que a natureza fez cabeça da Europa!
A independencia portugueza era com effeito uma tradição da
monarchia que a fundara, e, salvas ambições intercorrentes, a
defendera sempre. Agora que a tradição caíra, e que, varridas todas
as idéas antigas, os homens buscavam na Natureza o principio das
cousas achando só desolação e anarchia, era justo, era necessario
que a confissão do tribuno acabasse por um renegar da historia.
Não começara Mousinho renegando-a tambem, com as suas
opiniões de jurista e de economista, nas instituições e no
organismo? Afinal a politica, indo tambem ao fundo, auscultar o seio
de uma Natureza que suppunha prenhe de todas as verdades,
chegava onde devia chegar: á negação de uma nação feita contra
ella pelas artes dos homens; chegava onde ao moralista conduzia o
espectaculo da sua actual miseria—á condemnação formal. «No
estado actual da Europa as nações pequenas soffrem muito».[20]
E muito, acaso mais do que ninguem, soffria Portugal, assolado,
queimado, com os seus bravi da tribuna e do campo, ceifeiros
desapiedados que devoravam as searas sem deixarem grão nem
para a semente. Passos, já ensinado pela experiencia, respondera
aos de Torres-Novas:
Estou muito gordo para me dar á vida aventurosa e
romantica das guerrilhas: não tenho pressa de entrar no
Pantheon. A gordura e o casamento são duas grandes
garantias de ordem ... Continúo no meu remanso a apanhar a
minha azeitona, a comer os meus feijões e a lêr a minha
gazeta, sem ter mais parte nos negocios publicos, depois que
me retirei inteiramente á vida privada.
Precipitára-o pois a politica no scepticismo absoluto ou n’um
pessimismo amargurado? Não. A poesia salvava-o; e se perdera a
confiança nos homens, nos systemas, nos principios, na historia e
na patria, não perdera aquillo que tinha no fundo intimo da sua alma:
o seu amor, a sua virtude, a paz serena da sua consciencia, a
luminosa e meiga doçura da sua bondade.
Se a politica me irrita, tenho uma cataplasma emmoliente a
que me soccorro. Tomo a minha filha nos braços, aperto-a
contra o meu peito, e procuro assim esquecer os infortunios
da minha patria.
Quem não vê d’aqui o grupo suave, melancolico? o homem cuja
face sorri caridosamente para a innocencia? o homem que é uma
ruina, mas com uma flôr no seio, como succede aos edificios
derrocados?
Assim, embalando nos joelhos a filha, abraçando-a, beijando-a,
acaba aquelle que nós vimos começar, estoico, em 26 ao jurar da
carta no Porto. Viveu annos ainda, mas ficou outro e que pouco
importa á historia. Dos soldados que a anarchia matou, elle é o
segundo: Mousinho fôra o primeiro. Entra agora a ordem a fazer
victimas: Cabral, Rodrigo, Herculano. Vel-os-hemos morrer de varios
modos: oxalá tivessem acabado todos, como acabou Passos: com a
filha sobre os joelhos, embalando-a, beijando-a!
Esses beijos eram o despedir, o finar-se da chimera setembrista;
mas o amôr que traduziam tinha sido e é ainda o symbolo de uma
idéa futura, mal concebida nos dias de hoje—o symbolo da
democracia, egualisadora dos homens ...
Com Passos caíu a segunda definição do liberalismo: a ruina da
idéa derrubava o seu defensor. Mas, agora, apparecia em 39, com o
ministerio ordeiro, uma definição nova—d’esta vez a genuina, a
pura, a definitiva? Repellia ao mesmo tempo o radicalismo de
Mousinho e a idolatria da soberania-nacional setembrista. Voltava
aos tempos de 30, ás doutrinas estudadas com ardor na emigração
pelos livros dos mestres. Queria e pedia tudo á liberdade individual,
condemnando a democracia; mas em vez de renegar a historia, ia
buscar á tradição a base para um throno vacillante. Tornava-se á
«melhor das republicas», e o coripheu d’essa opinião em Rodrigo,
se é que o sceptico estadista possuia opinião; se é que não preferia
esta exactamente por ser parda: côr sobre que assentam bem quasi
todas as outras. Não é pois á politica, é á litteratura que nós iremos
pedir a explicação do novo systema, prenhe de esperanças, que só
durariam dois annos. (39-42, restauração da Carta).
NOTAS DE RODAPÉ:
(Ibid.)
não eram cumpridas, porque ninguem se importava já com o
homem que morrera em peccado liberal.
E o propheta que, no calor das suas conversas com os deuses,
falava a lingua de uma poesia sentida e bella, descendo á terra e
vendo a desolação dos diluvios, vestia o manto de um Jeremias, ou
a capa de um Diogenes, ou a toga de um Suetonio:
Homens que teriam legado á posteridade nomes gloriosos
e sem mancha e que, mais modestos nas suas ambições
materiaes seriam vultos heroicos da historia, pararam-se
como condottieri mercenarios; ao passo que outros, depondo
as armas e voltando á vida civil, exigiam ser revestidos de
cargos publicos, para exercer os quaes lhes faltavam todos
os predicados.
(Opusculos, 1).
E perguntas ainda, propheta! quem preparou e fez surgir a
revolução? Quem? senão a colera do Senhor, como n’aquelle dia
em que mandou o diluvio? E de toda a humanidade perdida apenas
houve dois Noés, que merecessem graça aos olhos do Senhor! E
um foi Passos, a quem elle chamou ao seio da eterna sabedoria,
embalando risonho a filha sobre os joelhos, já esquecido da
Liberdade; outro foi Sá, a quem confiou o commando da Arca sobre
as aguas do diluvio. E dentro da Arca havia casaes de todas as
especies. E quando o temporal cessou, Noé-Sá abriu a Arca. E
havia a constituição nova de 38, iris de bonança, fructo da copula
das gerações condemnadas cujas sementes se guardavam na Arca.
E era uma especie diversa do romantismo antigo ...
(Herculano, Poesias).
Já a doutrina os tinha condemnado; já Mousinho na Terceira havia
escripto a sentença da sua abolição; e depois, e mais em nome da
vingança dos vencedores do que em nome da doutrina, foram
exterminados. «Negros, uns vultos vaguear se viam» agora,
esmolando miseraveis, ou foragidos pelas serras, homisiados,
precítos, caçados e escarnecidos. Herculano, com uma corajosa
humanidade, protestava: era «uma das realidades mais torpes, mais
ignominiosas, mais brutaes, mais estupidas e covardemente crueis
do seculo presente». (Os egressos, op.) Fôra um roubo a
expropriação:
Pague-se um juro modico dos valores que nos
apropriámos. Se o fizermos, em lugar de sermos mil vezes
uma cousa cujo nome não escreverei aqui, sel-o hemos só
999; porque teremos restituido a milesima parte do que
loucamente havemos desbaratado. (Ibid.)
O sentimento de uma justiça absoluta imperava já, no espirito do
poeta stoico, por sobre as paixões de uma guerra passada, por
sobre o enthusiasmo de una victoria—tão triste! por sobre o systema
das opiniões politicas e o conjuncto das impressões partidarias. Era
um acto de justiça humanitaria que nem poderia remir os crimes
commettidos. A educação kantista do poeta fazia-o, como a
Mousinho, ter um culto pela propriedade, expressão social positiva
do individuo. Mas a theoria era condemnada pela politica. Se se não
tivesse sequestrado no Porto, ter-se-hia morrido; se os bens dos
frades se não tivessem confiscado e retalhado, o liberalismo teria
caído no dia seguinte ao da victoria.
3.—RENASCIMENTO