Probability and Statistics

Prepared by: Kiel Manasseh G. De La Cruz

Objectives
The learner should be able to:
1. Use precise counting technique.
2. Apply probability in formulating conclusions.
3. Determine the outcomes for making decisions.
(1) Review:
 Begin the lesson by reviewing basic counting techniques, such as permutations and
combinations.
 Recap the concept of probability, including the use of sample spaces and calculating
probabilities.
(2) Motivation:
 Engage students by presenting a real-life scenario where precise counting technique and
probability are used, such as determining the chances of winning a lottery or predicting the
outcomes of a sports event.
 Discuss the importance of making informed decisions based on probability.
(3) Activity:
 Activity 1: "Spin and Win"
o Provide each student with a spinner divided into different sections, each labeled with a
specific outcome.
o Instruct students to spin the spinner multiple times and record the outcomes.
o Have students calculate the experimental probabilities of each outcome and compare
them with the expected probabilities.
o Discuss the results as a class, emphasizing the use of precise counting techniques and
probability in analyzing the data.
 Activity 2: "Decision Making Game"
o Create a game where students have to make decisions based on probability.
o Present different scenarios with multiple choices and probabilities assigned to each
option.
o Students must analyze the probabilities and make the best decision.
o Discuss the reasoning behind their decisions and evaluate the outcomes.
(4) Analysis:
 Guide students in analyzing the data collected from the activities.
 Discuss the importance of collecting sufficient data to obtain more accurate probabilities.
 Introduce the concept of conditional probability and its applications in decision making.
(5) Abstraction:
 Introduce the concept of tree diagrams and their role in representing probabilities.
 Teach students how to construct and interpret tree diagrams to solve probability problems.
 Provide examples and guide students through the process step-by-step.
(6) Application:
 Present a real-life problem related to the objective, such as determining the probability of
winning a game of chance or making a profitable investment decision.
  Have students work individually or in groups to solve the problem using the precise counting
technique and probability concepts learned.
(7) Assessment:
 Question 1: What is the difference between permutations and combinations? (Answer:
Permutations consider the order, while combinations do not.)
 Question 2: What is the probability of rolling a 6 on a fair six-sided die? (Answer: 1/6)
 Question 3: If you have a bag with 5 red marbles and 3 blue marbles, what is the probability of
randomly selecting a blue marble? (Answer: 3/8)
 Question 4: In a deck of cards, what is the probability of drawing a heart? (Answer: 1/4)
 Question 5: If two dice are rolled, what is the probability of getting a sum of 7? (Answer: 6/36 or
1/6)
(8) Assignment:
 Assign students homework that involves solving probability problems using precise counting
techniques.
 Provide a set of problems with varying levels of difficulty to challenge students' understanding
of the topic.
Interactive Activities:
1. "Probability Experiment Stations":
o Set up different stations with various probability experiments, such as coin tossing, dice
rolling, or card drawing.
o Students rotate through the stations, conduct the experiments, and record the
outcomes.
o After completing all the stations, students analyze and compare the experimental
probabilities with the theoretical probabilities.

2. "Create Your Own Game":

o In pairs or small groups, students design their own board game or card game.
o They must incorporate precise counting techniques and probability in determining the
rules and outcomes of the game.
o Students then play each other's games and evaluate the fairness and strategic elements
based on probability.

3. "Real-Life Decision Making":

o Provide students with a set of real-life scenarios, such as choosing a college major,
investing in stocks, or buying a car.
o Students must analyze the probabilities associated with each option and make an
informed decision.
o Encourage class discussions to explore different perspectives and reasoning behind their
choices.

Remember to adapt the activities, questions, and assignments to suit the specific needs and
abilities of the students.