Accepted Manuscript

Human vulnerability mapping of chemical accidents in major industrial units in Kerala,

India for better disaster mitigation

Karthik Rajeev, Sabitha Soman, V.R. Renjith, Priscilla George

PII: S2212-4209(19)30013-5
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101247
Article Number: 101247
Reference: IJDRR 101247

To appear in: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

Received Date: 4 January 2019

Revised Date: 17 July 2019
Accepted Date: 18 July 2019

Please cite this article as: K. Rajeev, S. Soman, V.R. Renjith, P. George, Human vulnerability mapping
of chemical accidents in major industrial units in Kerala, India for better disaster mitigation, International
Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (2019), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101247.

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 ACCEPTED
Human vulnerability MANUSCRIPT
mapping of chemical accidents in major
industrial units in Kerala, India for better disaster mitigation

Karthik Rajeeva, Sabitha Soman*b V.R. Renjitha, Priscilla Georgea

a
Division of Safety and Fire Engineering, School of Engineering, Cochin University of Science and
Technology, Kochi, Kerala, India
b
Division of Chemical Engineering, School of Engineering, Cochin University of Science and

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Technology, Kochi, Kerala, India
*
Corresponding author: Sabitha Soman, PDF Scholar, Division of Chemical Engineering, School of

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Engineering, Cochin University of Science and Technology, Kochi, Kerala, India,
Email: sabithasoman836@gmail.com

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ABSTRACT
Oil and Gas industries are one of the prominent industrial sectors in India, which plays

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a pivotal role in influencing important sections of the economy. The hazards associated with
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these Major Accident Hazard (MAH) industries include fire, explosion and toxic gas release.
The oil and gas plants located in Cochin City, Kerala, India handle many hazardous materials,
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which can lead to potentially dangerous accidents. The objective of this study was to evaluate
and map the population vulnerability and to develop a comprehensive procedure for assessing
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the risk level of the industrial site using geospatial tools. A detailed survey was carried out in
the MAH industries of Kakkanad-Irumpanam-Ambalamugal industrial clusters. With the data
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obtained, an extensive risk analysis was carried out which includes modelling of various
incident outcome cases arising from the hazardous storages. Results obtained from
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consequence modelling and effect modelling was used to estimate the individual and societal
risk at environs of the industrial cluster. With the estimated individual risk, threat zones were
identified and mapped using Arc GIS software. This study categorizes the study area into
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different zones based on individual risks. The individual risk based zone map developed in
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this study can be used as a decision making tool during emergency management and for land
use planning for regions surrounding the industrial areas, which may reduce the death toll
during a disaster in future. The proposed study is an operational tool allowing competent
authorities, industrialists and risk experts to assess the vulnerability of the industrial area.

Keywords: Major Accident Hazard (MAH); Risk assessment; Vulnerability assessment;

ALOHA; Geographical Information System (GIS).
1. Introduction

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The oil and gas sector is one of theMANUSCRIPT
prominent core industries in India, which plays a
vital role in country’s economic growth. Most of the substances involved in the processes of
production, transportation and storage of these industries are hazardous with toxic, corrosive,
inflammable or explosive characteristics, therefore such industries are commonly termed as
Major Accident Hazard (MAH) industries.The leaks of hazardous chemicals, and the
subsequent accidents often lead to serious casualties and property losses. Serious accidents
caused by the leak of hazardous chemicals have occurred around the world during the past

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forty years [1]. Industrial accidents can occur in the production process, transportation,
storage, use and disposal stages. The release of damaging substances (e.g. chemicals,
radioactivity, genetic materials) or damaging levels of energy from industrial facilities or

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equipment into surrounding environments may cause accidents. This usually occurs in the

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form of explosions, fires, spills, leaks, or wastes [2]. India has already experienced these types
of major and minor chemical accidents. For example, the Bhopal Gas tragedy, 1984 that
occurred due to the leakage of Methyl Isocyanate is one of the worst industrial disasters that

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the world has ever faced. Another major accident occurred on 14 September 1997 in the
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process industry at the petroleum refinery of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited
(HPCL) Visahakapatanam in India [3]. Some other industrial accidents in India like Chasnala
Mining Disaster (1975), Jaipur Oil Depot Fire (2009), Korba Chimney Collapse (2009),
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Mayapuri Radiological Incident (2010) and Bombay Docks Explosion (1944) were described
in detail in the WORKOSH, Workplace Occupational Safety and Health, An Official
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Newsletter of ENVIS-NIOH [2].

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Since these industrial accidents are erratic, prior identification of potential risks arising
due to sudden release of hazardous chemicals from storage systems is essential for effective
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preparedness and for reducing loss of life and minimizing damage to property and
environment. The present study is carried out in the major industrial areas in Cochin City,
Ernakulam district, Kerala. Cochin City is one of the most industrialized cities in Kerala
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where several hazardous chemicals are handled regularly. The objective of this work was to
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evaluate and map human vulnerabilities adjacent to industrial areas and to develop a
comprehensive procedure for assessing the risk level associated to an industrial site with
respect to the surrounding environment using geoinformatics tool.

Mathematical and software models have been used in this study for analyzing the risk
and to identify the population under threat. Risk is a measure of human injury, environmental
damage, or economic loss in terms of the incident likelihood and its consequences [4]. The
estimation of risk is carried out by gathering and integrating information about scenarios,
frequencies and its consequences. Individual risk is the probability of death per year due to

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the exposure to an individual MANUSCRIPT
at a certain distance from the source of hazard. Societal risk is
defined as a measure (estimated by the intensity) of risk that has affected a group of people.
Quantified risk analysis is the most effective way to represent the societal risks associated
with MAH installations [5].

To study the vulnerability of population near the industrial area, two software
applications- ALOHA (Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmosphere) and GIS (Geographical
Information System), are integrated in this study.

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ALOHA software defines the plume footprint of the maximum threat zone for
accidental release from an installation. Many studies have showed the integrated applications

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of ALOHA and GIS, as a powerful tool of risk assessment and population vulnerability
assessment [6, 7, 8]. A study has been conducted to estimate the damage potential of

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hazardous storages of an industrial area, by using ALOHA. Maps of the impact zones of
incident outcome cases are prepared using ArcGIS and the individual and societal risk at
different locations of the impact zones are estimated. ALOHA is used in many studies for the

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dispersion modeling of hazardous chemicals (say LPG, Chlorine) [9, 10]. Li et al. [11]
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developed a conceptual model of human vulnerability to chemical accidents, revealing the
roots of human vulnerability and emphasizing its role in risk management. They also
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proposed GIS based methodology for vulnerability mapping. Researchers around the world
have studied and proposed various GIS applications in safety analysis. GIS based quantitative
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risk assessment for urban gas pipeline network was designed by Ma et al. [12] by
incorporating assessment of failure rate, accident consequences, individual risk and societal
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risk based on previous analysis. Single-point fires and the dynamic spread of fires are
analyzed by using a natural gas pipeline network fire model, and a framework for an urban
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fire spread model has been developed by using GIS spatial technology [13].

The toxic impact of ammonia release and its effect on nearby population in an
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industrial unit in Ernakulam district was studied using ALOHA and GIS [7]. They used
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ALOHA model to predict the toxicity affected distances of ammonia. Present study used the
areal interpolation method in GIS database to study the population vulnerability. Fire hazard
vulnerabi1ity assessment study was conducted in Dhaka city, Bengladesh [14]. They prepared
a fire hazard vulnerability map of the city and calculated the vulnerability score of buildings
of the study area using geographical information system. A study was conducted to identify
the potential chemical accident occurrence in South Korea by using spatial distribution
analysis of a number of chemical factories and accidents in South Korea [15]. Their study

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categorized the study area ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
into different accident hazard groups. In our study, the aim is to
prepare a zone map for identifying the vulnerable areas near the industrial cluster.

2. Materials and methods

The methodology adopted for the study is listed below and the important steps are
elaborated in the subsequent section.
2.1. Identification of cluster of MAH industries in Kerala.
According to Government of Kerala, India reports, there are 39 MAH industries in

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Kerala spread over 19 districts. Of these 39 MAH units about 20 units are located in
Ernakulam district alone.

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2.2. Selection of one industrial cluster
There are two major industrial clusters in Ernakulam district viz; Kakkanad-

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Irumpanam-Ambalamugal industrial cluster and Udyogamandal industrial cluster. In the
present study, Kakkanad-Irumpanam-Ambalamugal industrial Cluster was selected because of

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the daily handling of a variety of hazardous chemicals/fuels and their huge quantity in this
area. Also there is no such study conducted for this industrial area.
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2.3. Identification of MAH units in the selected industrial cluster
The MAH units handling hazardous chemicals from the Kakkanad-Irumpanam-
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Ambalamugal industrial Cluster are identified based on the Manufacture Storage and Import
of hazardous Chemical Rules. (Government of India guidelines).
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2.4. Identification of hazardous storage tanks

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Identified the major hazardous storages from the selected MAH industries (data
collected from the respective industries).
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2.5. Data collection

Survey for data collection to the selected MAH units was carried out in 2016-2017.
Data collected from the selected MAH industrial units regarding the type of chemical/fuel
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storage, MSDS, composition, condition, capacity, dimension and shape of the storage tanks.
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To estimate the risk to the surrounding environment, the population data was collected from
the concerned government authorities and for the geoprocessing work, geographical data of
the locality was collected. For the analysis, meteorological data such as direction of wind,
wind speed, surface temperature, humidity etc. was collected. For network analysis, the data
regarding traffic routing was collected for evacuation plan.
2.6. Consequence analysis
Consequence modelling refers to the calculation or estimation of numerical values (or
graphical representation) that describes the credible physical outcome of loss of containment

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scenarios involving flammable, explosive MANUSCRIPT
and toxic material with respect to their potential
impact on people, assets or safety functions [16]. Mathematical (Say TNO) and software (Say
ALOHA) models was used for consequence analysis (Fire, Explosion and Dispersion
modeling). Consequence modeling is carried out using pool fire modeling, vapour cloud
explosion (VCE) modeling, Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion (BLEVE)
modelling and dispersion modelling. Pool fire modelling of Naphtha pool fire, Benzene pool
fire, High Speed Diesel (HSD) pool fire, Motor Spirit (MS) pool fire etc. was carried out by

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using parameters like heat of combustion, heat of vaporization, specific heat capacity at
constant pressure, boiling point, density of air, radius of tank, and ambient temperature data.

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2.7. Threat zone estimation /identification
The maximum threat zone for each storage units (with different individual outcome

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case) was estimated using consequence models and marked in the Google map using
ALOHA/Google earth.

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2.8. Effect Analysis
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This is done using probit equation and vulnerability/effect models (for thermal
radiation, toxic load, and pressure effects). Vulnerability is a fundamental concept to
theoretical and practical dimension of incidents. For assessing vulnerability of an event, first
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the conditions that make the exposure of an individual or a society or a location unsafe,
leading to creation of these conditions should be understood. Vulnerability assessment
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requires systematic examination of individual groups, infrastructure and other facilities, and
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economic components to identify the features which are susceptible to damage from the
effects of natural or anthropogenic hazard [17].
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2.8.1. Estimation of Individual Risk

Individual risk is defined as risk that affects a person in the vicinity of hazard. This
comprises of nature of injury to the individual, likelihood of the injury to occur and the time
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period over which injury might occur [6].

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Total individual risk at any geographical location x, y in and around the vicinity of
hazardous installation is the sum of individual risk at that point due to various outcome cases
associated with industries in the industrial area.
Individual risk at a geographical location x, y is given by AIChE/CCPS [18] as
Rx , y = ∑ n
i =1 Rx , y ,i ……………………………………. (1)

Rx,y is the total individual risk of fatality at geographic location x, y.

Rx,y,i is the individual risk of fatality at geographical location x, y from the incident outcome
case i,

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n is the total number of individual outcomeMANUSCRIPT
cases from the industrial area.
Rx,y,i can be estimated using the equation.
Rx , y ,i = li pl ,i …………………………………………………. (2)

li is the frequency of incident outcome case i, from the frequency analysis

pl,i is the probability that incident outcome case i will result in a fatality at location x, y, from
the consequence and effect models.
Frequency li of incident outcome case is estimated as discussed by AI ChE /CCPS [4].

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li = Fl po,i poc ,i …………………………………….. (3)

Fi is the frequency of incident I which has incident outcome case i as one of its incident

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outcome case (yr-l)
Po,i is the probability that incident outcome, having i as one of its incident outcome cases,

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occurs, given that incident I has occurred
Poc,i is the probability that incident outcome case I occurs given the occurrence of the

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precursor incident I and the incident outcome corresponding to the outcome case i.
2.8.2. Estimation of societal risk
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Societal risk is a measure of risk to a group of people. It is commonly expressed as the
frequency distribution of multiple casualty events (F-N curve). For the estimation of societal
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risk, same frequency and consequence information is required as in the case of individual risk
estimation.
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Number of people affected by all incident outcome cases can be estimated as

N i = ∑ x , y Px , y p f ,i ………………………….. (4)
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Ni is the number of fatalities resulting from the incident outcome case I

Px,y is the number of people in the location x, y
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Pf,i is the probability that incident outcome case i will result in a fatality at location x, y
2.8.3. Impact analysis
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The calculation of individual and societal risk involves calculation of probability of

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death of a person at a given exposure. It is calculated using probit and effect models [18].
The probit models are generally expressed as,
Pr = c1 + c2 (InV ) …………………………….. (5)
Pr is the probit, the measure for the percentage of people exposed and who incur a particular
injury
c1 constant depending on the type of injury and type of load
c2 is another constant depending on the type of load
V is the load.

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Eisenberg provides a probitACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
for fatalities due to direct effect of overpressure as
( )
Pr = −77 + 6.9 In P 0 ……………………………… (6)
P0 is the peak over pressure
The probit functions used to calculate the percentage of lethality and first-degree burns are
( )
Pr = −36.38 + 2.56 In tq 4 / 3 …………………………… (7)

( )
Pr = −39.83 + 3.0186 In tq 4 / 3 …………………………... (8)
2.8.4. Frequency analysis

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The data collected regarding frequency of incident outcome cases is shown in Table 1.

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Table 1. Frequency of incident outcome cases
Incident Outcome Cases Frequency per year

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BLEVE Fire ball LPG 1x10-6
VCE (Benzene) 1.2 x 10-5

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Pool fire (Naphtha) 6 x 10-4
6 x 10-4
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Pool fire (MS)
Pool fire (HSD) 6 x 10-4
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2.9. GIS mapping

GIS is regarded as a powerful tool for managing, displaying and analyzing spatial
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data. To assess the vulnerability of population, which is likely to come under the threat zones
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of different hazardous units, a number of GIS database layers were prepared. The layers
prepared are LULC (Land use –Land cover) of study area, administrative ward boundaries,
population distribution pattern of each ward and layer of threat zone. All the GIS mapping
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were done using ArcGIS software. This software is found to be an efficient way to identify
hazard-prone areas and vulnerable populations, structures and resources. The population
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density map of the study area, severity map, vulnerability map, risk map, zone map and
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evacuation route plan etc. were prepared using Arc GIS software.
2.10. Zone mapping
Risk based zone map was prepared for the study area. The map categorizes the study
area into different individual risk zones based on the different threat zones

3. Case Study
Out of the two major industrial clusters in Ernakulam district, the present study focuses
on Kakkanad-Irumpanam-Ambalamugal industrial Cluster because of the daily handling of
variety of hazardous chemicals/fuels and their huge quantity in this area. The MAH units

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from Kakkanad-Irumpanam-Ambalamugal industrial Cluster were identified using the
Manufacture Storage and Import of hazardous chemical, Government of India guidelines. Oil
giants like Bharat Petroleum corporation, Hindustan Petroleum and Indian Oil
Corporation, have plants located at Irumpanam. Benzene, LPG, Naptha, High Speed Diesel
(HSD) and Motor Spirit (MS) are the hazardous chemicals selected for the vulnerability
assessment of the study area.

For this study, geographic data and population data of the study area was collected.

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The key risk targets of the area such as schools, hospitals etc. were identified. The
meteorological data was also collected for the study. Further analysis was carried out by

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following the methodology described in section 2. The map of the study area is shown in Fig.
1.

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Fig. 1. Map showing the study area

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4. Results and discussions

4.1 Consequence modelling of various incident outcome cases

The intensity of heat radiation (kW/m2) is calculated using TNO model for various
flammable substances at different locations. The flammable substances considered here
includes LPG, Naphtha, Benzene, High Speed Diesel (HSD) and Motor Spirit (MS). Table 2
shows the results of intensity of heat radiations from different storage tanks at different
locations. The intensity of heat radiation is maximum at 10 m from source of pool fire for the
chemicals. LPG pool fire having a radius of 20 m is found to have maximum intensity of heat

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radiation. This is due to high MANUSCRIPT
heat of combustion and vaporization value. In case of benzene
the intensity of heat radiation is found to be least. This may be due to low heat of combustion
and vaporization value.
Table 2. Comparison of Intensity of Heat Radiation for Various Flammable Substances

Distance Intensity of Heat Radiation (kW/m2)

(m)
LPG Naphtha Benzene HSD MS HSD MS HSD MS
R= 20m R=22.86 m R=10.5m R=18.79m R=18.79m R=18m R=18m R=19m R=19m

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10 286.50 59 14.08 23.78 42.01 27.22 42.73 53.36 42.81

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20 71.62 14.2 3.52 5.94 10.50 6.80 10.68 13.34 10.70

50 11.46 2.36 0.56 0.95 1.68 1.08 1.70 2.13 1.71

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100 2.86 0.59 0.14 0.23 0.42 0.27 0.42 0.53 0.42

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200 0.71 0.14 0.035 0.059 0.10 0.068 0.10 0.13 0.10
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500 0.12 0.02 0.05 0.009 0.016 0.010 0.017 0.02 0.01

1000 0.06 0.005 0.001 0.002 0.004 0.0027 0.004 0.005 0.004
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4.1.1. BLEVE Modelling of LPG

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The results obtained from the BLEVE modelling of LPG is given Table 3 along with
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other parameters. Pressure effects of BLEVE at different locations are given in Table 4.
Table 3. Heat radiation from LPG BLEVE
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Horizontal Path Length Transmissivity View Factor Radiation Radiation

distance (m) flux (kW/m2) received by a
(m) target (kW/m2)
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20 67.26 0.65 0.24 406.14 63.25

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50 74.86 0.64 0.21 406.14 54.49

100 99.46 0.63 0.15 406.14 38.31

150 133.76 0.61 0.10 406.14 24.73

200 173.56 0.60 0.07 406.14 17.03

500 451.26 0.55 0.01 406.14 2.23

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4. Pressure of blast wave from LPG BLEVE

Location of Target (m) Pressure (kPa)

20 13.1

50 8.4

100 6.2

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150 0.39

200 0.09

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4.1.2. VCE Modelling of LPG

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The pressure of blast wave estimated at various locations using the TNT equivalent
model (VCE) for LPG and Benzene are given in Table 5. From this table, it is evident that the

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pressure of blast wave for LPG is less as compared to that of benzene. This may be due to less
storage of LPG and lower values of heat combustion. As observed, the pressure of blast wave
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due to VCE is higher than BLEVE. This is due to utilization of energy for the fragmentation
of vessel and its attributed effects.
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Table 5. Comparison of pressure effects from VCE modelling

Location of Target LPG Pressure

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Benzene Pressure (kPa)

(horizontal distance) (m) (kPa)
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20 4.01 219.84

50 1.63 194.84
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100 0.58 28.88

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150 0.078 3.7

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200 0.027 0.4

4.1.3 Dispersion modeling

Dispersion is a term used by modellers to include advection (moving) and diffusion

(spreading). A dispersing vapour cloud will generally move in a downwind direction and
spread (diffuse) in a crosswind and vertical direction (crosswind is the direction perpendicular
to the wind). Dispersion calculations provide an estimate of the area affected and the average
vapour concentrations expected.

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Fig. 2 and Fig.3 show the MANUSCRIPT
thermal radiation threat zone created by BLEVE that is
superimposed on the Google Earth map.

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Fig. 2. Threat zone for Benzene release superimposed on the Google Earth map
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Fig. 3. Threat zone for LPG release superimposed on the Google Earth map
Considering the location of the industry and the distance of threat zone, the most
affected area during the accidental release is Ambalamugal, Tripunithura and Thiruvankulam.
Therefore, the areas coming under these regions are taken for the vulnerability study.

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of BLEVE of MANUSCRIPT
LPG is highly hazardous as the effect is beyond
plant boundary (from Table 6 and 7) affecting the industries in vicinity leading to domino
effect.
Table 6. Hazard distance and effect of different possible outcome of Benzene release

Threat zone distance

Benzene release Potential hazards Effect
in each scenario

>10 kW/m2 209 m (from source)

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Tank explodes and
Thermal radiation >5 kW/m2 290 m
chemical burns in

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fireball >2 kW/m2 445 m

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Table 7. Hazard distance and effect of different possible outcome of LPG release

Threat zone distance

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LPG release Potential hazards Effect
in each scenario
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Tank explodes and >10 kW/m2 1191 m(from source)
chemical burns in
Thermal radiation >5 kW/m2 1069 m
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fireball
>2 kW/m2 2574 m
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Fig. 4. shows the complete threat zone for outcome cases from various industries
depicting a chance of domino effect.
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Fig. 4. Complete threat zone superimposed on the Google Earth map
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4.2 Vulnerability assessment of the study area
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Vulnerability is defined in various ways such as the threat of exposure, the capacity to
suffer harm and the degree to which different social groups are at risk [19]. Here, 6 MAH
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units are taken for the study purpose. In order to reduce the risks and fatalities from these 6
MAH industries, it is necessary to study the population density of the study area. The
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population density map of the study area was prepared using GIS (Fig. 5) by collecting
demographic data, which gives the number of people coming under each treat zone.
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Fig 5. Population density map around the study area

4.2.1 Estimation of individual risk
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Since a cluster of industries is selected for the study, the individual risk is estimated at
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different locations of the study. The selected locations are shown in Fig. 6 and the results are
tabulated in table 8. Maximum individual risk is found to be at locations A, C, F, G, H, K, L,
M, N (approximately 1x10-3). It may be due to presence of thermal radiation resulting from
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LPG BLEVE from the catastrophic failure of storage tank. On comparing with ALARP
triangle concept of HSE UK (10-6) locations B, D, E, I, J are within acceptable levels.
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Fig 6. Locations selected for estimating individual risk

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(Source: Google Earth)
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Table 8. Individual risk at different locations

Total individual risk of

Location
fatality/year
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A 5.5x10-4
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B 1.1x10-6
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C 6.0x10-4

D 8.8x10-7
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E 9.8x10-8
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F 2.2x10-3
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G 5.5x10-4

H 6.0x10-4

I 1.1x10-6

J 6.0x10-4

K 2.8x10-3

L 5.5x10-4

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M 2.2x10-3

N 2.7x10-3

4.2.2 Estimation of societal risk

The societal risk from individual outcome cases is estimated by considering the area of
threat zone, population density in each threat zone, wind probability and availability of people

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in the threat zone. The resulting total fatality per year associated with each individual case is
tabulated.
A maximum of 238 fatalities are obtained for LPG BLEVE and 151 fatalities are

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obtained for Benzene pressure effects (Table 9). This shows that the population density plays
a pivotal role while calculating societal risk for various incident outcome cases.

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Table 9. Societal risk due to different incident outcome cases

Incident
Threat zone
Population
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distance
Outcome density/sq.km fatality of wind of people fatalities
(m)

LPG
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(BLEVE –
heat 2.67 2208 0.9 1 0.5 238
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radiation)

Benzene
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(VCE –
Pressure 2.15 2208 0.8 1 0.5 151
effects
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4.3 GIS based mapping

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4.3.1 GIS mapping of threat zone areas

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The vulnerable areas within the threat zone are assessed using GIS. This geospatial
tool provides necessary information about the population around the threat zone. Various
outcome cases considered for the study are demarcated using GIS which is shown in figure 7.
The radius of the spread of overpressure corresponding to 10kW/m-2 is found to be largest for
LPG and lowest for HPCL.

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Fig. 7. Thermal radiation mapping

4.3.2. Severity, vulnerability and risk maps
The severity, vulnerability and risk maps were prepared using Arc GIS software.

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The severity measures MANUSCRIPT
the exposure probability of sensitive targets such as schools,
hospitals, commercial buildings etc to chemical agents. GIS can spatially analyse the potential
of different scenarios that can spread to adjacent vicinity. The population around the study
area is also considered. As population increases, the severity also increases. The severity map
of the study area is shown in Fig. 8.

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Fig. 8. Severity map

Once the sensitive targets within the study area are identified, their relative importance
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is assessed by weighted overlay analysis. Then number of social indicators such as population
density and accessibility to emergency services are identified and quantified. A geo-
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processing workflow model is designed, and vulnerability is evaluated. The resulting

vulnerability map is shown in Fig. 9. Vulnerability map gives the precise location of sites
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where a potentially catastrophic event could result in death, injury, pollution or other
destruction. Vulnerability maps are often created with the assistance of geographic
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information system (GIS). GIS tool classifies the study area into different vulnerability levels
such as very low, low, medium, high and very high vulnerable areas.
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Fig. 9. Vulnerability Map
The severity and vulnerability indexes of each mesh are treated equally and assumed to have

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equal importance in contributing to the risk index. Risk map is prepared by superimposing the
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severity and vulnerability map. The obtained risk map is shown in Fig. 10.
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Fig. 10. Risk map

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 An individual risk ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
based zone mapping was done in this study. With estimated
individual risk a zoning similar to earthquake zones of India based on the ALARP triangle
model was done. The zone map, which is shown in Fig. 11 was overlaid on Google Earth for
better identification of areas which are high in risk. Two zone maps were made, one for total
individual risk estimated and other for single individual scenario. The zone map categorizes
the study area into four different zones viz; Intolerable, marginally tolerable, tolerable,
acceptable based on individual risk. The zone map can be used as a decision making tool

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during emergency management and for land use planning for regions surrounding the
industrial areas, which may reduce the impact of accidents in future.

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Fig. 11. Zone map

4.3.3. Evacuation route map
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Evacuation is a complex process consisting of several consecutive phases. After the

detection of incident, decision makers evaluate the potential threat for specific areas and order
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an evacuation if the risk is significant. The network analysis technique of GIS is used to
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design buffer zones for such type of incidents.

Buffer areas identified here are four schools located in the acceptable zone of risk. The
areas identified considering the ease to access the nearest emergency services like hospital,
fire station and the resulting evacuation route map is shown in Fig. 12.

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Fig. 12. Evacuation route map

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5. Conclusions
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The present study aimed to evaluate and map the human and environmental
vulnerability to accidental release of hazardous chemicals in the environs of major accident
hazard (MAH) industrial cluster in Cochin City, Kerala and thereby developing a
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comprehensive procedure for assessing the risk level associated to the industrial site with
respect to the surrounding environment using geoinformatics tool. Consequence modelling
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was done to model various incident outcome cases. Individual and societal risks were
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estimated using effect model and the threat zones were identified using ALOHA model.
Threat zone maps of benzene and LPG release were prepared by superimposing ALOHA
results onto Google Earth. The maximum threat zone of 2.1 km was observed for LPG.
The population density map of the study area was prepared using GIS in order to
reduce the risks and fatalities from MAH industries. Using the geospatial tools in Arc GIS
software, the severity, vulnerability and risk maps of the study area were prepared. This risk
map can be used by policy makers, risk assessors etc. at the time of emergency management.
Evacuation route map was also prepared because after the detection of incident, decision

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makers evaluate the potential MANUSCRIPT
threat for specific areas and order an evacuation if the risk is
significant.

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