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The probable moment strength (or flexural overstrength, as it is reinforcement is made equal to 1.25fy, where fy is the speci-
also known) is the theoretical maximum flexural strength that can fied yield strength of the reinforcement.
be calculated for the critical section of a member, with or without The ACI 318 approach does not account for the likely
axial load, subjected to bending in a given direction. In ACI 318, increase in the concrete compressive strength over the speci-
this strength is needed to capacity-design beams, columns of fied strength in the computation of the probable moment
special-moment frames, and columns not designated as part of strength. The compressive strength of concrete batched,
the seismic-resisting system. Supported on a column database, delivered to a construction site, and placed in a member
this paper provides evidence that the current method prescribed
following accepted quality control procedures should be
by ACI 318 to calculate this strength has a clear nonconservative
bias and explains the reasons for this. To improve predictability, the
similar to—if not greater than—the specified strength at the
authors propose a very simple, statistically calibrated mechanics specified date, typically at 28 days. However, most concrete
model for determining the probable moment strength of rectan- types continue to gain significant strength over time,6-8 even
gular and circular columns. An extension of the concept is made for in a dry environment9 or in harsh environments subjected
computing the probable moment strength of rectangular columns to freezing-and-thawing cycles.10,11 The presence of passive
subjected to bending along the two principal axes. confinement, by way of closely spaced hoops, also causes an
additional strength increase. Moreover, the presence of an
Keywords: biaxial bending; capacity design; codes; confinement plastic elastic member, such as a footing or beam-column joint, at the
hinges; long-term concrete strength; probable moment strength; reinforced framing end of a member results in additional local concrete
concrete columns; seismic design. strength gain.12-15 This is because this elastic element effec-
tively confines the compressed concrete by preventing it
INTRODUCTION from expanding transversely. The greatest manifestation of
The probable moment strength (or flexural overstrength, this local effect is the reduction in concrete cover spalling
as it is also termed by other codes1-3 and textbooks4) is the at the member end and a shift of the critical section away
theoretical maximum flexural strength that can be calculated from the end.16,17 In lightly axially loaded columns, a signifi-
for the critical section of a member, with or without axial cant increase in the concrete compressive strength has only
load, subjected to bending in a given direction. The prob- a minor influence on the probable moment strength. For this
able moment strength is needed to calculate design forces reason, the increase in the concrete compressive strength
to capacity protect any member where plastic hinges may can be ignored in calculations. However, as the axial load
develop, particularly if the kinematics of the mechanism of increases, the probable moment strength becomes more
inelastic deformation indicates so. Examples of the former sensitive to the compressive strength of the concrete. In the
are the bases of first-level columns in buildings and building context of capacity design, an underestimation of the prob-
columns not designated as part of the seismic-resisting system able moment strength can result in a reduction of the defor-
framing into strong beams. For instance, in ACI 318-11,5 the mation capacity of a hinging column, as the intended ductile
probable moment strength is needed to calculate the design mode of response may be hampered by the development of
shear forces of beams of special-moment frames. This is another behavioral mode associated with reduced ductility.
done to capacity protect these members by reducing the
potential for shear failure during a rare but intense earth- RESEARCH SIGNIFICANCE
quake. Moreover, ACI 318-115 specifies that all columns of ACI 318-115 specifies that columns in special-moment
special-moment frames in buildings and columns not desig- frames shall be capacity-designed. To achieve this objective
nated as part of the seismic-resisting system be capacity when hinging is likely to occur in the columns, this code
designed. Furthermore, this code specifies that when plastic requires the computation of the probable moment strength at
the column ends. This paper shows that the current approach
hinges will likely develop in columns, the design shear force
in ACI 318 for computing the probable moment strength
has to be determined using the column end probable moment
has a clear nonconservative bias. To improve predictability,
strengths, regardless of the shear forces obtained from the the authors propose a very simple, statistically calibrated
structural analysis. Other codes1-3 have similar requirements. mechanics model for determining the probable moment
In ACI 318, the probable moment strength is calculated
using a simplified theory for flexure, where an elasto-plastic
stress-strain relationship is assumed for the steel reinforce- ACI Structural Journal, V. 110, No. 4, July-August 2013.
ment, a rectangular stress block is assumed for concrete in MS No. S-2011-270.R1 received August 29, 2011, and reviewed under Institute
publication policies. Copyright © 2013, American Concrete Institute. All rights
compression, and strain compatibility is enforced, accepting reserved, including the making of copies unless permission is obtained from the
the hypothesis that plain sections before bending remain copyright proprietors. Pertinent discussion including author’s closure, if any, will be
published in the May-June 2014 ACI Structural Journal if the discussion is received
plane after bending. In this analysis, the yield strength of the by January 1, 2014.
strengths fˆc′ and fˆy were reported, thus resulting in the best
possible prediction of the ACI 318 procedure for MMAX. for six rectangular test columns together with the credible
Values of Mcd were calculated using a magnified yield moment strength-axial load interaction diagram computed
strength lh fˆy. Because fˆy was known, the 1.25 magnification using average values for the material strengths and assuming
factor could not be used in the calculations because such a lh = 1.15 (refer to Fig. 2). It just so happens that the six
factor already accounts for the measured-to-specified yield test columns have very similar material strengths fc′ and fˆy,
h
M cd = Ts g e h + ( P + Ti ) − xc (1) where
2
rl Ag
Equation (1) can also be presented in terms of the total dbe = 2 (4)
pnb
area of longitudinal reinforcement Ast and fˆy. Assume that all
the reinforcement hardens by ratio lh. Then, Eq. (1) becomes
and where nb is the number of bars in the model of the column
cross section—that is, nb is eight or 12 in a rectangular column
1 x 1 x
M cd = l h Ast
f y h kg e + (1 − 2k ) − c + Ph − c (2a) and six or eight in a circular column. Finally, z = 1 in rectan-
2 h 2 h gular columns and z = cos(p/nb) in circular columns.
The authors made use of the column database to deter-
or in dimensionless form for rectangular columns mine ratios lh and xc/h. Following the work of Presland et
al.,16 it was assumed that ratio xc/h varies linearly with the
column axial load ratio. An error minimization procedure
M cd fy 1 xc for M MAX − M cd M MAX was performed to obtain optimum
= l h r kg e + (1 − 2k ) 2 − h
bh 2
f′
c
fc′ values for ratios lh and xc/h. This procedure was carried
(2b) out initially for the Eight Equivalent Bar Model for rectan-
P 1 xc
+ − gular columns and the Six Equivalent Bar Model for circular
Ag
fc′ 2 h columns. Minimization resulted in lh = 1.15 for the rectan-
APPENDIX A
ℓ
fsu Ash P
N° Designation Ref. h b s fc' fy
db
f Ash ,ACI fc' Ag
y
mm † mm † MPa ‡ MPa ‡
1 TP005 20 400 400 5.38 36.8 363.0 NR x 0.0166 0.23 0.027
2 TP001 20 400 400 5.38 35.9 363.0 NR 0.0166 0.23 0.027
3 TP006 20 400 400 5.38 35.9 363.0 NR 0.0166 0.23 0.027
4 TP002 20 400 400 5.38 35.7 363.0 NR 0.0166 0.23 0.027
5 TP003 20 400 400 5.38 34.3 363.0 NR 0.0166 0.24 0.029
6 TP004 20 400 400 5.38 33.2 363.0 NR 0.0166 0.25 0.030
7 TSUNO-1 21 550 550 5.00 30.7 306.0 1.43 0.0135 0.46 0.033
8 TANA90U5* 20 550 550 5.50 32.0 511.0 1.32 0.0125 0.80 0.100
9 TANA90U6* 20 550 550 5.50 32.0 511.0 1.32 0.0125 0.80 0.100
10 SOES86U1 20 400 400 5.31 46.5 446.0 1.57 0.0151 0.36 0.100
11 TANA90U9* 20 600 400 3.33 26.9 432.0 1.56 0.0188 1.51 0.100
12 SAATU6 20 350 350 2.60 37.3 437.0 NR 0.0327 1.00 0.131
13 TANA90U1 20 400 400 4.00 25.6 474.0 1.52 0.0157 1.02 0.200
14 ANG81U4 20 400 400 5.63 25.0 427.0 1.57 0.0151 1.22 0.210
15 GILL79S1 20 550 550 3.33 23.1 375.0 1.69 0.0179 0.83 0.260
16 LI-1 22 400 400 3.50 33.2 450.0 1.32 0.0157 1.51 0.289
17 SATO-1 14 400 400 4.00 59.8 442.0 1.33 0.0314 1.03 0.300
18 TANA90U7* 20 550 550 4.50 32.1 511.0 1.32 0.0125 0.98 0.300
19 TANA90U8* 20 550 550 4.50 32.1 511.0 1.32 0.0125 0.98 0.300
20 SOES86U2 20 400 400 4.88 44.0 446.0 1.57 0.0151 0.53 0.300
21 SOES86U3 20 400 400 5.69 44.0 446.0 1.57 0.0151 0.35 0.300
22 SOES86U4 20 400 400 5.88 40.0 446.0 1.57 0.0151 0.19 0.300
23 ANG81U3 20 400 400 6.25 23.6 427.0 1.57 0.0151 1.94 0.380
24 ZAHN86U8 20 400 400 5.75 40.1 440.0 1.53 0.0151 1.18 0.390
25 S17-3UT 17 440 440 5.40 43.4 496.0 1.28 0.0125 1.08 0.491
26 S24-2UT 17 610 610 4.30 43.4 503.0 1.32 0.0125 1.07 0.492
27 LI-4 22 400 400 2.75 35.7 460.0 1.41 0.0157 1.79 0.500
28 WAT89U5 20 400 400 5.06 41.0 474.0 1.34 0.0151 0.57 0.500
29 WAT89U6 20 400 400 6.00 40.0 474.0 1.34 0.0151 0.29 0.500
30 GILL79S4 20 550 550 2.58 23.5 375.0 1.69 0.0179 1.85 0.600
31 SATYARNO-3 23 400 400 4.00 50.0 497.0 1.30 0.0314 0.79 0.600
32 SATO-4 14 400 400 4.00 71.6 442.0 1.33 0.0314 0.86 0.600
33 WAT89U7 20 400 400 6.00 42.0 474.0 1.34 0.0151 0.87 0.700
34 WAT89U8 20 400 400 4.81 39.0 474.0 1.34 0.0151 0.63 0.700
35 WAT89U9 20 400 400 3.25 40.0 474.0 1.34 0.0151 1.69 0.700
* P-Delta calculation modified from that reported in Ref. 20 to match original reference
† mm = 0.0394 in.
‡ 1 MPa = 145 psi
x fsu not reported
Table A-2. Relevant properties of circular test columns.
ℓ
s P
s ,ACI
s fc' fsu
N° Designation Ref. hh fy
db
f f'A
c g
y
† ‡ ‡
mm MPa MPa
1 KOWALSKIU2 20 457 4.00 34.2 565.0 1.23 0.0207 0.91 0.041
2 KOWALSKIU1 20 457 4.00 32.7 565.0 1.23 0.0207 0.96 0.043
3 RES-U1 24 914 2.53 64.1 426.0 1.67 0.0254 0.85 0.063
4 NIST-F 20 1520 2.07 35.8 475.0 NR x 0.0200 1.46 0.069
5 NIST-S 20 1520 1.26 34.3 475.0 NR 0.0200 3.21 0.071
6 LEH1015* 20 610 2.00 31.0 462.0 1.36 0.0150 1.16 0.072
7 LEH407* 20 610 2.00 31.0 462.0 1.36 0.0075 1.16 0.072
8 LEH415* 20 610 2.00 31.0 462.0 1.36 0.0150 1.16 0.072
9 LEH430* 20 610 2.00 31.0 462.0 1.36 0.0303 1.16 0.072
10 LEH815* 20 610 2.00 31.0 462.0 1.36 0.0150 1.16 0.072
11 KUN97A7 20 305 2.00 32.8 448.0 1.54 0.0200 1.06 0.093
12 KUN97A8 20 305 2.00 32.8 448.0 1.54 0.0200 1.06 0.093
13 KUN97A9 20 305 2.00 32.5 448.0 1.54 0.0200 1.07 0.093
14 KUN97A10 20 305 2.00 27.0 448.0 1.54 0.0200 1.28 0.112
15 KUN97A11 20 305 2.00 27.0 448.0 1.54 0.0200 1.28 0.112
16 KUN97A12 20 305 2.00 27.0 448.0 1.54 0.0200 1.28 0.112
17 WONG90U1 20 400 3.75 38.0 423.0 1.36 0.0320 0.96 0.190
18 POT79N1 20 600 3.13 28.4 303.0 1.35 0.0256 0.67 0.239
19 KOW96FL3 20 457 4.78 38.6 477.0 NR 0.0362 0.74 0.281
20 VU98NH1 20 457 3.77 38.3 427.5 NR 0.0241 1.09 0.307
21 VU98NH6 20 457 2.11 35.0 486.2 NR 0.0521 3.22 0.333
22 POT79N5A 20 600 2.29 32.5 307.0 1.33 0.0256 1.93 0.368
23 WONG90U3 20 400 3.75 37.0 475.0 1.32 0.0320 0.98 0.390
24 POT79N4 20 600 2.92 32.9 303.0 1.35 0.0256 0.87 0.407
25 WAT89U10 20 400 5.25 40.0 474.0 1.34 0.0192 0.51 0.528
26 POT79N3 20 600 2.08 26.6 303.0 1.35 0.0243 1.07 0.572
27 ANG81U2 20 400 3.44 28.5 308.0 1.51 0.0256 1.28 0.589
28 ZAHN86U6 20 400 4.69 27.0 337.0 1.46 0.0243 1.66 0.613
29 POT79N5B 20 600 2.29 32.5 307.0 1.33 0.0256 1.93 0.737
30 WAT89U11 20 400 3.56 39.0 474.0 1.34 0.0192 1.09 0.739
* P-Delta calculation modified from that reported in Ref. 20 to match original reference
† mm = 0.0394 in.
‡ 1 MPa = 145 psi
x fsu not reported
Table A-3. Supplementary rectangular column test data.
r ,MAX
M M2%
N° Designation c c +d bh
Vh MMAX
mm † rad
1 TP005 3.1 33.5 0.031 0.97
2 TP001 3.1 33.5 0.017
3 TP006 3.1 33.5 0.081 0.92
4 TP002 3.1 33.5 0.016
5 TP003 3.1 33.5 0.057 0.97
6 TP004 3.1 33.5 0.082 0.96
7 TSUNO-1 4.1 26.0 0.017
8 TANA90U5 3.0 52.0 0.044 0.93
9 TANA90U6 3.0 52.0 0.026 0.98
10 SOES86U1 4.0 20.0 0.061 0.97
11 TANA90U9 3.0 52.0 0.047 0.88
12 SAATU6 2.9 32.4 0.090 0.92
13 TANA90U1 4.0 52.0 0.019
14 ANG81U4 4.0 32.5 0.036 1.00
15 GILL79S1 2.2 50.0 0.028 1.00
16 LI-1 4.1 30.0 0.017
17 SATO-1 2.5 30.0 0.016
18 TANA90U7 3.0 52.0 0.050 0.98
19 TANA90U8 3.0 52.0 0.015
20 SO S86 2
SOES86U2 4.00 21
21.00 00.010
010
21 SOES86U3 4.0 20.0 0.009
22 SOES86U4 4.0 19.0 0.011
23 ANG81U3 4.0 36.5 0.013
24 ZAHN86U8 4.0 23.0 0.020
25 S17-3UT 6.9 36.5 0.022 0.96
26 S24-2UT 5.0 50.8 0.020
27 LI-4 4.1 30.0 0.016
28 WAT89U5 4.0 21.0 0.016
29 WAT89U6 4.0 19.0 0.011
30 GILL79S4 2.2 50.0 0.013
31 SATYARNO-3 4.0 27.4 0.011
32 SATO-4 2.5 30.0 0.018
33 WAT89U7 4.0 25.0 0.008
34 WAT89U8 4.0 21.0 0.008
35 WAT89U9 4.0 25.0 0.016
† 1 mm = 0.0394 in.
Table A-4. Suplementary circular column test data.
r ,MAX
M M2%
N° Designation c c +d bh
Vh MMAX
mm † rad
1 KOWALSKIU2 5.3 22.2 0.061 0.90
2 KOWALSKIU1 5.3 22.2 0.045 0.94
3 RES-U1 3.2 67.7 0.057 0.92
4 NIST-F 6.0 74.6 0.054 0.92
5 NIST-S 3.0 79.4 0.047 0.88
6 LEH1015 10.0 28.6 0.030 0.91
7 LEH407 4.0 28.6 0.031 1.00
8 LEH415 4.0 28.6 0.051 0.98
9 LEH430 4.0 28.6 0.074 0.92
10 LEH815 8.0 28.6 0.092 0.91
11 KUN97A7 4.5 18.5 0.053 0.96
12 KUN97A8 4.5 18.5 0.053 0.94
13 KUN97A9 4.5 18.5 0.066 0.94
14 KUN97A10 4.5 18.5 0.044 0.94
15 KUN97A11 4.5 18.5 0.038 0.92
16 KUN97A12 4.5 18.5 0.038 0.97
17 WONG90U1 2.0 30.0 0.038 0.94
18 POT79N1 2.0 35.0 0.037 0.96
19 KOW96FL3 8.0 39.7 0.092 0.91
20 VU98NH1 2.0 34.3 0.038 0.99
21 VU98NH6 2.0 37.5 0.095 0.79
22 POT79N5A 2.0 44.0 0.023 0.99
23 WONG90U3 2.0 30.0 0.025 0.98
24 POT79N4 2.0 35.0 0.027 1.00
25 WAT89U10 4.0 25.0 0.020 1.00
26 POT79N3 2.0 35.0 0.012
27 ANG81U2 4.0 28.0 0.012
28 ZAHN86U6 4.0 28.0 0.019
29 POT79N5B 2.0 44.0 0.020
30 WAT89U11 4.0 27.0 0.013
† 1 mm = 0.0394 in.
M MAX M
Table A - 5. Ratios and MAX calculated using various
bh 2 fc' M cd
approaches for rectangular columns.
ℓ
Test
fsu Ash P Mmax
s
e
h b fc' fy c c +d bh
8‐bar model
Unit
db
f Ash ,ACI '
fA f 'b h 2
y c g c Mmax
mm † mm † MPa ‡ MPa ‡ mm †
Mcd
1 400 400 5.25 36.2 423.0 1.61* 0.0153 0.98 23.0 0.230 0.160 0.836 0.98
2 400 400 4.06 28.8 423.0 1.61 0.0153 1.59 23.0 0.430 0.217 0.836 0.99
3 400 400 4.50 32.3 423.0 1.61 0.0153 1.08 23.0 0.230 0.172 0.836 1.00
4 400 400 3.44 27.0 423.0 1.61 0.0153 1.70 23.0 0.420 0.227 0.836 1.01
* See Reference 28 Mean 0.994
† 1 mm = 0.0394 in.
‡ 1 MPa = 145 psi