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  • Аудиториски вежби 2

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    Филип Џуклевски
    2 views14 pages
    1. The document discusses basic concepts of probability, including the definition of conditional probability and the multiplication rule for calculating the probability of multiple events. It provides examples calculating probabilities of events A and B occurring together and events A1, A2 occurring sequentially. 2. It then presents a word problem about calculating conditional probabilities based on information provided about occurrences of events A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H happening together or sequentially. 3. Finally, it asks several questions related to interpreting conditional probabilities and determining probabilities when multiple conditions are involved.

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    1. The document discusses basic concepts of probability, including the definition of conditional probability and the multiplication rule for calculating the probability of multiple events. It provides examples calculating probabilities of events A and B occurring together and events A1, A2 occurring sequentially. 2. It then presents a word problem about calculating conditional probabilities based on information provided about occurrences of events A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H happening together or sequentially. 3. Finally, it asks several questions related to interpreting conditional probabilities and determining probabilities when multiple conditions are involved.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    2 views14 pages

    Аудиториски вежби 2

    Uploaded by

    Филип Џуклевски
    1. The document discusses basic concepts of probability, including the definition of conditional probability and the multiplication rule for calculating the probability of multiple events. It provides examples calculating probabilities of events A and B occurring together and events A1, A2 occurring sequentially. 2. It then presents a word problem about calculating conditional probabilities based on information provided about occurrences of events A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H happening together or sequentially. 3. Finally, it asks several questions related to interpreting conditional probabilities and determining probabilities when multiple conditions are involved.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 14

    –

    ( P(B)>0)

    P( AB)
    P ( A | B)
    P( B)

    ( P( )>0)

    P( AB)
    P( B | A)
    P( A)

    P ( AB ) P ( A) P ( B | A) P ( B ) P ( A | B )
    P( A1 A2 ... An ) P( A1 ) P( A2 | A1 ) P( A3 | A2 A1 )...P( An | An 1 ... A1 )

    A B P ( AB ) P ( A) P ( B )

    , B ,
    A ,A B
    1, 2, ..., n
    k , k=2,3, ...n, :

    P( Ai1 Ai 2 ...Ain ) P( Ai1 ) P( Ai 2 ) P( Ai 3 )...P( Ain )

    1. S={1,2,…,20} .
    , 3.

    : 3
    –

    ={2,4,6,8,10,12,14,16,18,20}

    B={3,6,9,12,15,18}

    AB={6,12,18}

    P(A|B)=?

    P( AB) 3 1
    P( A | B)
    P( B) 6 2

    2.
    2. 8 10 . (
    ) .
    .

    Ai i , i=1,2

    P(A1A2)=?

    8 7
    P ( A1 A2 ) P ( A1 ) P ( A2 | A1 ) 0.183
    18 17

    3. 1
    0.92 .

    1
    –

    1. 1, .
    .
    2
    P( F ) P( A B) P( A) P( B) (0.92) 0.8464

    F,
    0.8464.

    2. , 2, D . D E
    . , DE
    D . ,
    : .

    P( D E ) 1 P( D E ) 1 (1 0.92) 2 0.9936
    –

    D E G,
    0.9936.

    3. , 3. C G
    , CG
    . :

    P(C G) P(C ) P (G ) 0.92 0.9936 0.9141

    C G H,
    0.9936.

    4. , F H .
    , .
    :

    P( F H ) 1 P( FH ) 1 (1 0.8464)(1 0.9141) 0.9868

    ,
    P (( A B) (C (D E ))) 0.9868

    4. .
    0.3.
    . :

    :
    –

    : 4

    Ai i , i=1,2, ...

    , i .
    , P ( Ai ) P( A) 0.3 , i=1,2,…

    B A1 A2 A3 P( B) P ( A1 ) P ( A2 ) P ( A3 ) 0 .7 3 0.343

    C A1 A2 A3 A4 P( B) P ( A1 ) P ( A2 ) P ( A3 ) P ( A4 ) 0 .7 3 0 .3 0.1029

    5. 0.01,
    ,
    0.03 . 90%
    , , ?

    A A A( B B ) AB AB
    P( A) P( AB) P( AB )

    P( A | B) 0.01
    P( A | B ) 0.03
    90
    P( B) 0.9
    100
    P( B ) 1 0.9 0.1
    –

    P ( AB) P( B) P( A | B) 0.9 0.01 0.009


    P ( AB ) P( B ) P( A | B ) 0.1 0.03 0.003
    P ( A) P( AB) P( AB ) 0.009 0.003 0.012
    0.012 100 1.2%

    6. :

    „ “ „ “
    , , ,
    . 1/3
    . (
    ),
    ?

    :I

    : IV

    P(A|B)=?

    P(Ck)=1/3, C , =1,2,3,4

    C1C 2 C3C 4 , C1 C 2 C3C 4 , C1C 2 C3C 4 , C1C 2 C3 C 4 , C1 C 2 C3C 4 , C1 C 2 C3 C 4 , C1C 2 C3 C 4 ,


    C1 C 2 C3 C 4 ( )

    C1C 2 C3C 4 , , C1C 2 C3 C 4 , C1 C 2 C3 C 4

    :
    –

    1 1 2 2 1 24 16 41
    P( B) ( ) 4 6( ) 2 ( ) 2 ( ) 4
    3 3 3 3 81 81 81 81
    1 4 1 2 2 2 13
    P ( AB ) ( ) 3( ) ( )
    3 3 3 81
    13
    P ( AB ) 81 13
    P( A | B)
    P( B) 41 41
    81

    7. 90% , 80%
    . 75% .

    ) .
    ?

    ) .
    ?

    ) ?

    : P(A)=0.9

    : P(B)=0.8

    P ( AB ) 0.75 P ( A) P ( B ) .

    P( AB) 0.75
    P( B | A) 0.8333
    P( A) 0.9

    P( AB) 0.75
    P( A | B) 0.9375
    P( B) 0.8

    P( A | B) P ( A), P ( B | A) P( B)

    .
    –

    n
    Hi F, i=1,…,n, HiHj= , i j Hi .
    i 1

    F :

    n
    P( B) P( H i ) P( B | H i )
    i 1

    ,
    :

    P( H j ) P ( B | H j )
    P( H j | B) n
    P ( H i ) P( B | H i )
    i 1

    1. 2 , 4 .

    ) ,
    .
    .

    ) ,
    .

    ) :

    Hi : i i=1,2

    H1+H2= H1H2=

    1
    P( H 1 ) P( H 2 )
    2
    –

    3
    P( A | H 1 )
    5
    3
    P( A | H 2 )
    7
    2
    1 3 3 18
    P ( A) P( H i ) P( A | H i ) ( )
    i 1 2 5 7 35

    P( H 1 ) P( A | H 1 ) 7
    P ( H 1 | A)
    P ( A) 12

    2. 4 .
    0.80,
    (. . ) 0.20.
    , 0.25.
    ,
    ?

    H1 :

    H2 :

    P( H 1 ) 0.8 P( H 2 ) 0.2 P( A | H 2 ) 0.25 P( A | H 1 ) 1

    P ( H 1 | A) ?
    P( H 1 ) P( A | H 1 ) 0 .8 1
    P ( H 1 | A) 0.941
    P( H 1 ) P( A | H 1 ) P( H 2 ) P( A | H 2 ) 0.8 1 0.2 0.25
    –

    3. On line 4 .
    :

    1 0.4 0.998

    2 0.3 0.999

    3 0.1 0.997

    4 0.2 0.992

    ) ?

    ) ,
    ?

    Hi – i P(H1)=0.4 , P(H2)=0.3

    – P( |H1)=0.998 , P(A|H2)=0.999

    a) P(A)=?

    4
    P( A) P( H i ) P( A | H i ) 0.4 0.998 0.3 0.999 0.1 0.997 0.2 0.992 0.997
    i 1

    P H1 , A P A | H 1 P( H 1 ) 0.002 0.4
    ) P H1 | A 0.267
    PA PA 0.003
    –

    n n
    .
    ( ) .
    P(A)=p, Pn(k) n
    , A k :

    n k nk
    Pn (k ) p q ,k 0,1,..., n
    k

    q=1 p.

    1. , ?

    1
    P ( A)
    6

    , n=8, 3 , k=3.

    3 5
    8 1 5
    P8 (3) 0.10047
    3 6 6

    2. ,
    ?

    i: i , i=1,2
    –

    B:

    1 2 B=A1A2

    1
    p P( B) P ( A1 ) P ( A2 )
    4

    B B
    .

    0 3
    3 1 3 27 37
    P3 (k 1) 1 P3 (0) 1 1
    0 4 4 64 64

    3. ,
    4 6 ?

    1
    p P( A)
    2

    10
    6 10 10 10 1
    P10 (4 k 6) P10 (k ) 0.45117
    k 4 4 5 6 2

    4. 0.3.
    , 0.95,
    ?

    p P ( A) 0 .7
    –

    , . .

    Pn (k 1) 0.95

    1 Pn (0) 0.95

    n
    0.3 n 0.05
    0

    n ln 0.3 ln 0.05

    ln 0.05
    n 2.49
    ln 0.3

    n 3.

    5. .
    . , ,
    . ,
    ?

    Hi : i , i=0,1,2,3

    3
    1
    P( H i ) 1 P( H i ) ,i 0,1,2,3
    i 0 4

    B:

    .
    –

    P( B | H 0 ) 0
    3 1
    4 1 2 8
    P( B | H 1 )
    1 3 3 81
    3 1
    4 2 1 32
    P( B | H 2 )
    1 3 3 81
    P( B | H 3 ) 0
    3
    1 8 1 32 10
    P( B) P( H i ) P( B | H i )
    i 0 4 81 4 81 81

    P( B | H i ), i 0,1,2,3

    P( H i ) P( B | H i )
    P( H i | B) ,i 0,1,2,3
    P( B)

    P( H 0 | B) 0

    1 8
    4 81 1
    P( H 1 | B)
    10 5
    81

    1 32
    4 81 4
    P( H 2 | B)
    10 5
    81

    P( H 3 | B) 0

    P( H 2 | B) ,
    2 1 .

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