Unit07-PH-Math6 SE 6/18/09 9:30 AM Page 98

UNIT 7
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6 Theoretical Probability
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LESSO N

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Quick Review

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➤ This table shows the possible
outcomes when 2 dice are + 1 2 3 4 5 6
rolled and the numbers 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
are added. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
From the table: 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
• There are 36 possible outcomes. 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
• 18 outcomes are odd sums. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
• 18 outcomes are even sums.
We say: The probability of getting an odd sum is 18 out of 36.
We write the probability of an odd sum as a fraction: 18
36

This probability is a theoretical probability.

Number of favourable outcomes
Theoretical probability = Number of possible outcomes

18 18
The probability of an odd sum is 36
. The probability of an even sum is 36
.
18 18
Since 36
= 36
, the probability of getting an odd sum or an even sum is
equally likely.

Try These

1. A bag contains 10 white marbles and 8 black marbles.

A marble is picked at random.
What is the probability
that a black marble is picked?
2. 16 girls and 13 boys put their names in a bag.
One name is drawn from the bag. What is the probability
that a boys name will be drawn?

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Practice

1. A box contains 8 red apples, 10 green apples, and 12 yellow apples.

Without looking, you pick an apple from the box.
a) What are the possible outcomes?

b) How many apples are in the box?

c) What is the theoretical probability that the apple is:

i) red? ii) green? iii) yellow?

2. Suppose you spin the pointer on this spinner.
What is the probability of each outcome?
a) The pointer lands on 1. 1 2
b) The pointer lands on 2.
c) The pointer lands on 3 or 4. 4 3
d) The pointer does not land on 3.

3. Rafik spins the pointer on this spinner.

a) List the possible outcomes. 4 10
b) What is the probability of each outcome? 2 13
i) The pointer lands on a prime number? 19 6
ii) The pointer lands on a composite number? 12 5
iii) The pointer lands on a number greater than 10?

Stretch Your Thinking

Draw and colour marbles in the bag

so that the probability of picking
a green marble is greater than
the probability of picking a red marble,
but less than the probability of
picking an orange marble.
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Unit07-PH-Math6 SE 6/18/09 9:30 AM Page 100

UNIT 7

TU
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D E N B OO Experimental
7
K
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Probability
LESSO N

At Ho

At Sc
Quick Review

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➤ Saul spun the pointer on this spinner 10 times.
5
The theoretical probability of landing on the letter A is 10
, or 12 .
Here are Saul’s results.
Letter A B C D A C A
Number of Times 6 1 2 1 B A
The experimental probability is the A B
likelihood that something occurs based on the D A C
results of an experiment.
Number of times an outcome occurs
Experimental probability = Number of times the experiment is conducted
6
The experimental probability of landing on the letter A is 10
, or 35 .
This is different from the theoretical probability.
➤ Saul combined the results from 10 experiments.
Letter A B C D
Number of Times 51 19 8 22
51
The experimental probability of landing on the letter A is 100 .
The experimental probability is close to the theoretical probability.
The more trials we conduct, the closer the experimental probability
may come to the theoretical probability.

Try These

1. Look at the table of Saul’s individual results.

What is the experimental probability of landing on:
i) B? ii) C? iii) D? iv) B or C? v) A or D?
2. Look at the table of Saul’s combined results.
What is the experimental probability of landing on:
i) B? ii) C? iii) D? iv) B or D?

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Practice

1. Tatiana spins the pointer on this

spinner several times. B A
Here are her results.
A B C C B
|||| |||| || |||| |||| |||| |||| |||| |||

a) How many times did Tatiana spin the pointer?

b) What fraction of the spins were A? B? C?
2. A coin is tossed 100 times.
Heads showed 43 times and tails showed 57 times.
a) What are the possible outcomes?
b) What is the experimental probability of the tosses showing:
i) heads? ii) tails?
c) What is the theoretical probability of the tosses showing:
i) heads? ii) tails?

Stretch Your Thinking

a) What is the theoretical probability of the pointer landing on:

i) A? ii) B?
b) Use an opened paper clip as a pointer. B A B
Spin it 100 times. Record the results.
A A
A B B B
B B A

c) What is the experimental probability of the pointer landing on:

i) A? ii) B?

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 Name Date

Master 7.26 Extra Practice 6

Lesson 6: Theoretical Probability

1. Anya rolls an octahedron labelled A, A, A, B, C, C, C, C.

What is the theoretical probability that the octahedron will land on each letter?

2. Eva’s penny jar contains 25 pennies from 2004, 32 pennies from 2006, 17 pennies
from 2007, and 26 pennies from 2008. She picks a penny from the jar at random.

a) List the possible outcomes.

b) What is the theoretical probability of each outcome?

i) Eva picks a penny from 2007.

ii) Eva picks a penny from an even-numbered year.

iii) Eva picks a penny from a leap year.

3. Yannick is playing a game at a fun fair. Twenty-five small metal boats are floating in
a large tub. On the bottom, 20 boats are marked “Too bad,” 4 boats are marked
“Take another turn,” and 1 boat is marked “You win!” Yannick uses a magnet on a
stick to pull a boat from the tub. What is the theoretical probability of each outcome?

a) Yannick loses on his first turn.

b) Yannick gets a second turn.

c) Yannick wins on his first turn.

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 Name Date

Master 7.27 Extra Practice 7

Lesson 7: Experimental Probability

1. Work with a partner.

Use the face cards from a standard deck of cards.
Shuffle the face cards and place them in a pile on the desk, face down.

a) What is the theoretical probability that the top card is:

i) a red queen?

ii) a black king?

iii) the jack of diamonds?

b) Turn over the top card and record the result.

Return it to the pile and shuffle the cards again.
Repeat the experiment 11 times.
What is the experimental probability of turning over:

i) a red queen?

ii) a black king?

iii) the jack of diamonds?

c) How do the experimental probabilities compare with the theoretical probabilities?

Explain.

The right to reproduce or modify this page is restricted to purchasing schools.

This page may have been modified from its original. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education Canada