ETHIO NATIONAL SCHOOL

2020 G. C 4TH QUARTER MATHEMATICS LESSON NOTE FOR GRADE 9

 Dear students: - Copy the note and do the given homework on your exercise book!
Subject: - MATHEMATICS Grade & section: 9 (A-F)
Main topic: Probability
Sub topic/s: Probability
Page range from: 275 to 289

MONDAY, June 1/2020 G.C

Probability: A Measure of Uncertainty
Often in life we are confronted by our own ignorance. Whether we are pondering tonight’s traffic
jam, tomorrow’s weather, next week’s stock prices, an upcoming election, or where we left our
hat, often we do not know an outcome with certainty. Instead, we are forced to guess, to
estimate, and to hedge our bets. Probability is the science of uncertainty. It provides precise
mathematical rules for understanding and analyzing our own ignorance. It does not tell us
tomorrow’s weather or next week’s stock prices; rather, it gives us a framework for working with
our limited knowledge and for making sensible decisions based on what we do and do not know.
To say there is a 40% chance of rain tomorrow is not to know tomorrow’s weather. Rather, it is to
know what we do not know about tomorrow’s weather.
In this text, we will develop a more precise understanding of what it means to say there is a 40%
chance of rain tomorrow. We will learn how to work with ideas of randomness, probability,
expected value, prediction, estimation, etc., in ways that are sensible and mathematically clear.
Why Do We Need Probability Theory?
Probability theory comes up very often in our daily lives. We offer a few examples here. Suppose
you are considering buying a “Lotto 6/49” lottery ticket. In this lottery, you are to pick six distinct
integers between 1 and 49. Another six distinct integers between 1 and 49 are then selected at
random by the lottery company. If the two sets of six integers are identical, then you win the
jackpot.
The probability scale
Probabilities are given on a scale of 0 to 1, as decimals or as fractions: sometimes probabilities
are expressed as percentage using a scale of 0% to 100%, particularly on weather forecasts.
0………..This is the probability of something that is impossible.
1……….. This is the probability of something that is certain.
……….. This is the probability of something that is likely to happen as it is not to happen.

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Solution

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Tuesday, June 2, 2020 G.C
The probability of a single event

In this section we consider the probabilities of equally likely events. When you roll a fair dice,
each of the number 1 to 6 is equally likely to be on the uppermost face of the dice. For equally

likely events: P (a particular outcome) =

Example 1

A card is taken at a random from a full pack of 52 playing cards. What is the probability that it is?

(a) a red card (b) a ‘queen’

(c) a red ‘Ace’ (d) the ‘seven hearts’,

(e) an even number?

Solution

As each card is equally likely to be drawn from the pack there are 52 equally likely outcomes.

(a) There are 26 red cards in the pack, so P(red) = =

(b) There are 4 queen in the pack, so P(queen) = =

(c) There are 2 red Aces in the pack, so P(red Aces) = =

(d) There are only one 7 of Hearts in the pack, so P(7 0f Hearts) =

(e) There are 20 cards that have even numbers in the pack, so P(even number) = =

Example 2

A packet of sweets contains 18 red sweets, 12 green sweets and 10 yellow sweets. A sweet is
taken at random from the packet. What is the probability that the sweet is:

(a) red

(b) not green,

(c) green o yellow?

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Solution

(a) There are 18 red sweets in the packet, so:P(red) = =

(b) There are 28 sweets that are not green in the packet, so: P(not green) = =

(c) There are 22 sweets that are green or yellow in the packet, so: P(green or yellow) = =

Example 3
Suppose we roll a six-sided die. The possible outcomes are S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, so that |S| =
6. If the die is fair, then we believe each outcome is equally likely. We thus set P({i}) = i/6 for
each i ∈ S so that P({3}) = 1/6, P({4}) = 1/6, etc. It follows from that, for example, P({3, 4}) =
2/6 = 1/3, P({1, 5, 6}) = 3/6 = 1/2, etc.
This is a good model of rolling a fair six-sided die once.

Example 4
You roll a fair dice 120 times. How many times would you expect to obtain?
(a) a6, (b) an even score (c) a core of less than 5
Solution

(a) P(6) = Expected number of 6s= × 120 =20

(b) P(even score) = = Expected number of even scores= × 120 =60

(c) P(score less than 5) = = Expected number of score less than 5= × 120=80

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Wednesday, June 3, 2020G.C

The probability of two events

In this section we review the use of listings, tables and tree diagrams to calculate the probabilities
of 1, 2 and three events.
Example1
An unbiased coin is tossed (cast) once.

(a) List all the possible outcomes.

(b) What is the probability of obtaining one head?
(c) What is the probability of obtaining one tail?
Solution

Start
(a) The possible outcomes are H, T
So there are 2 possible outcomes that are all equally likely to occur as coin is not biased.
(b) There is only one way of obtaining 1 head, so: P(1 head) =

(c) There is only one way of obtaining 1 tail, so:P(1 tail) =

Example 2
An unbiased coin is tossed (cast) twice or a coin is tossed twice.

(a) List all the possible outcomes.

(b) What is the probability of obtaining two heads?

(c) What is the probability of obtaining a head and a tail?

(d) At least one head?

Solution

Start

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(a)The possible outcomes are

H H
H T
T H
T T So there are 4 possible outcomes that are all equally likely to occur as coin is not
biased.

(b) There is only one way of obtaining 2 heads, so: P (2 head) =

(c) There are two ways of obtaining a head and a tail, HT and TH so: P (a tail and a head) = =

Assignment
Page 284-285
Textbook
#2
#3
#6

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Thursday, June 4,2020 G.C
The probability of two events
Example 3
An unbiased coin is tossed (cast) three times or a coin is tossed three times

(a) List all the possible outcomes.

(b)What is the probability of obtaining three heads?

(c)What is the probability of obtaining a head and two tail?

Solution Start

(a)The possible outcomes are

H H H
H HT
H TH
H TT
T HH
T HT
T TH
T T T So there are 8 possible outcomes that are all equally likely to occur as coin is not
biased.

(b)There is only three ways of obtaining 2 heads, so: P (2 head) =

(c) There are three ways of obtaining a head and two tails, HTH, HTT and TTH so:

P (a tail and two heads) =

(c) There are seven ways of obtaining at least one head all except TTT so
(d) P (at least one head) =

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Example 4
(e) Suppose now that we flip three different fair coins. The outcome can be written as a
(f) Sequence of three letters, with each letter being H (for heads) or T (for tails). Thus,
(g) S = {HHH, HHT, HT H, HTT, T HH, T HT, TTH, TTT}.
(h) Here |S| = 8, and each of the events is equally likely. Hence, P({HHH}) = 1/8,
(i) P ({HHH, TTT}) = 2/8 = 1/4, etc. Note also that, by additively, we have, for
(j) Example, that P(exactly two heads) = P({HHT, HT H,T HH}) = 1/8 + 1/8 + 1/8 = 3/8, etc.
(k) Example 5 Use a tree diagram to list the sample space (possibility set) showing the
(l) Possible arrangement of boys and girls in a family with exactly three children.
a. What is the probability that all three children are boys?
b. What is the probability that two children are boys and one is a girl?
c. What is the probability that none of the children is a boy
d. What is the probability that at least one of the children is a girl?
e. What is the probability that all three children are of the same sex?

Solution:

S = {BBB, BBG, BGB, BGG,

GBB, GBG, GGB, GGG}. Thus, n (S) = 8.
a. E1= {BBB}. Hence p (E1) =

b. E2= {BBG, BGB, GBB}. Hence p (E2) =

c. E3 = {GGG}. Hence p (E3) =

d. E4= {BBG, BGB, BGG, GBB, GBG, GGB, GGG}. Hence p (E4) =

e. E5 = {BBB, GGG}. Hence p (E5) =

Assignment
Page 285
Textbook #7 #8
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 Friday, June 5, 2020G.C
The probability of two events
Example1

A red dice and a blue dice both unbiased are rolled at the same time. The scores on the two dice
are then added together.

(a) Show all the possible outcomes

(b) what is the probability of getting a score which is an even number on both top faces?
(c) What is the probability of getting a score which is one even and the other odd
number on the top?
(d) What is the probability of getting a score of sum which is greater than eleven on the top?
Solution
(1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6)
(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6)
(3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6)
(41,),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6)
(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(,5,5),(5,6)
(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6)
a. The possible outcome is 6× 6=36
b. Here are the events (2,2),(2,4),(2,6),(4,2),(4,4),(4,6),(6,2),(6,4)and(6,6)
P (even numbers) = =

c. (1,2),(1,4),(1,6)
(2, 1), (2, 3), (2, 5)
(3, 2), (3, 4), (3, 6)
(41,), (4, 3), (4, 5)
(5, 2), (5, 4), (5, 6)
(6, 1), (6, 3), (6, 5)
P (1 EVEN 1 ODD) = =

d. A sum greater than eleven is only one which is (6,6)

P (sum greater than eleven) =

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Example2

For a final example, suppose we roll a fair six-sided die and flip a fair coin. Then we can write
S = {1H, 2H, 3H, 4H, 5H, 6H, 1T, 2T, 3T, 4T, 5T, 6T}.
Hence, |S| = 12 in this case, and P(s) = 1/12 for each s ∈ S.

EXERCISES
1. Suppose we roll eight fair six-sided dice.
(a) What is the probability that all eight dice show a 6?
(b) What is the probability that all eight dice show the same number?
(c) What is the probability that the sum of the eight dice is equal to 9?
2. Suppose we roll 10 fair six-sided dice. What is the probability that there is exactly two 2’s
showing?
3. Suppose we flip 100 fair independent coins. What is the probability that at least three of them
are heads? (Hint: You may wish to use (1.3.1).)
4. Suppose we are dealt five cards from an ordinary 52-card deck. What is the probability that
(a) We get all four aces, plus the king of spades?
(b) All five cards are spades?
(c) We get no pairs (i.e., all five cards are different values)?
(d) We get a full house (i.e., three cards of a kind, plus a different pair)?
5. Suppose we deal four 13-card bridge hands from an ordinary 52-card deck. What is the
probability that
(a) All 13 spades end up in the same hand?
(b) All four aces end up in the same hand?
6. Suppose we pick two cards at random from an ordinary 52-card deck. What is the probability
that the sum of the values of the two cards

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