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An estimation of motor yacht light displacement based on design parameters

using computational intelligence techniques

Article in Ocean Engineering · July 2021

DOI: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.109086

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 Ocean Engineering 231 (2021) 109086

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Ocean Engineering
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/oceaneng

An estimation of motor yacht light displacement based on design

parameters using computational intelligence techniques
Tomasz Cepowski
Faculty of Navigation, Maritime University of Szczecin, Szczecin, Poland

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: The article presents equations for the estimation of steel motor yacht light displacement based on selected design
Yacht parameters, such as length overall, draught and breadth. The data of 240 build steel motor yachts from 2000 to
Preliminary 2020 with lengths from 30 m to 86 m were used to develop these equations. The complex design equations based
Design
on all design parameters were developed through the use of computational intelligence techniques, such as
Artificial neural network
Regression
random search and Artificial Neural Networks. The simple relationships based on only one input design
Light displacement parameter were developed using common linear and non-linear regression. The study showed that the random
search method, which utilizes a Multiple Nonlinear Regression model, offers good results that are as accurate as
those developed through the use of artificial neural networks. The developed equations may have practical
application for the parametric design of yachts.

1. Introduction the use of computer-based methods at the concept or preliminary design

Calkins et al., stated that yacht design is a multistage process, a fact
echoed by ship design methods presented by Papanikolaou (2012).
These stages can be described through Concept Design, Preliminary
Design and Detail Design. At the concept and preliminary design stages,
major design issues are conceptualized, such as basic dimensions and
hull shape. Larsson and Elaisson (2000) presented a yacht design
methodology as an iterative process which is known as a design spiral,
where main yacht parameters are adjusted in the first spiral turn.
Designing a modern motor yacht is a design challenge due to specific
design tasks. Primarily, the main design goal is to develop a hull which is
optimal due to its hydrodynamic properties. Secondly, the yacht should
be attractive and offer clear aesthetic value for the customer. Therefore,
if we take all of these aspects into account, the main challenge in yacht
design process is hull modelling.
Due to applied design methodology based on a design spiral, various
hull modelling methods were developed and can be used at the Pre­
liminary Design stage. In particular, automatic hull surface modelling
methods have been refined. Rodríguez et al. (2012) described this type
of method as a new category of CAD applications devoted to the defi­
nition and parameterization of the hull form, known as programmed
design. In many publications, by for example Calkins et al. (2001),
Mancuso (2006), Pérez et al., 2008, Ingrassia et al. (2017) and Shahroz
et al. (2017), presented various methods of hull shape modelling though
stage.
One particularly interesting method was developed by Shahroz et al.
(2017), in which the hull was divided into three regions (entrance,
middle and run) and each region was represented separately. Through
this method, a designer is able to offer greater design flexibility and this
can lead to greater hull design variations. Zhang (2008)presented a
parametric approach to hull form design, which offered the ability to
quickly generate and add variations in hull form, as well as enabling the
hydrodynamic optimization of the hull.
Within the design process, hull appearance and client impression is
the next task for the designer. This research field is known as Emotional
Design, and was developed by Sharma et al. (2016). This design process
is aimed towards the creation of certain emotions in customers. Dogan
et al. (2017), developed a new method for the selection of hulls which
were seen as being especially attractive to clients and utilized artificial
neural networks. This study suggested an adjective-based design concept
for yacht hulls, where hulls were expressed through adjectives, such as
“strong” or “speedy”. These descriptive hull adjectives can serve as a
bridging language that can be used simplify the dialogue between yacht
designers and their customers.
Larsson and Elaisson noted (2000) that the first step in the creation of
a spiral design is to select the following characteristics according to the
designers requirements for the desired yacht:

E-mail address: t.cepowski@am.szczecin.pl.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.109086
Received 21 December 2020; Received in revised form 9 April 2021; Accepted 24 April 2021
Available online 10 May 2021
0029-8018/© 2021 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
T. Cepowski Ocean Engineering 231 (2021) 109086

• basic dimensions, such as overall and waterline length, maximum
and waterline beam, freeboard forward and aft, draft,
• light displacement (also known as light weight),
• displacement volume,
• prismatic, block and midship coefficient.
• the use of statistical methods to estimate the light displacement by
using data from yacht databases.
By using the aforementioned methods and available data, it is
possible to estimate:

The development of a yacht hull is based on the above characteristics • the weight of selected components, such as structure, equipment,
in the next design stages. During the preliminary design phase it is very outfitting and machinery,
important to examine the following buoyancy equation which binds • or the total lightweight of the yacht.
basic yacht dimensions to its light displacement:
In open literature there are no methods for estimating the weight of
LH ⋅ B⋅T⋅cB ⋅ρ = LTD + DWT (1)
components that are specifically dedicated to the parametric design of a
where: motor yacht. To some degree, the weight estimation methods used in
LH – hull length. ship design theory for a standard merchant ship may be used to estimate
B – beam. the structural weight of smaller or specialized vessels, such as motor
T – draft. yachts.
CB – block coefficient. Watson and Gilfillan (1976) introduced structural weight estimation
LTD – light displacement. in merchant ship design. While the method was originally designed for
DWT – deadweight. use in the case of standard merchant ships, it is being adapted for use in
The light displacement of a motor yacht could be subdivided in a the case of smaller and more specialized vessels. The weight of the
number of different ways, but the following major approaches are structure can be estimated using the following equation in the method:
commonly used: WS = WS1 (1 + 0.5(CB0.8D − 0.7)) (4)

• a weight breakdown system common to merchant ships (Watson, where.

1998; Schneekluth, 1998; Papanikolaou, 2012) CB0.8D - block coefficient measured at 0.8 D.
WS1- weight, calculated as follows:
LTD = WS + WEO + WM (2)
WS1 = k E1.36 (5)
where:
WS - weight of steel structure. where.
WEO - weight of equipment and outfitting. k is taken from the table depending on the type of ship (for frigates
WM - weight of machinery. and corvettes k = 0.023).
E is calculated as follows:
• a weight breakdown system common to motor yacht developed by ∑ ∑
Benetti Yard (Sugimoto, 2012): E = L(B + d) + 0.85L(D − d) + 0.85 (l1 h1 ) + 0.75 (l2 h2 ) (6)

LTD = W 1 + W2 + W3 + W4 + W5 + W6 + W7 + W8 + W9 (3) where:

L, B, D, d – length, breadth, depth and draught in general,
where:
l1, h1 - length and height of superstructures,
W1 – weight of hull structure and superstructures.
l2, h2 - length and height of deckhouses.
W2 – weight of insulation and outfitting, such as external decks
Other commonly used methods for determining the weight of steel
outfitting, painting, insulation, windows and doors.
structures that can be used for smaller ships largely depend on the
W3 - weight of auxiliary machinery such as bilge, fire fighting, fuel,
following relationships (Watson, 1998; Schneekluth, 1998; Papaniko­
fresh water and exhaust gas equipment.
laou, 2012):
W4 - weight of piping.
W5 - weight of ventilation, air-conditioning and fridges. WS = k La Bb Dc (7)
W6 - weight of electric and electronic systems, such as main and
emergency electric system, lighting, navigation, communication and
a
WS = k L B D b c
CdBD (8)
entertainment. WS = k [L (B + D)] a
(9)
W7 - weight of machinery, such as main propulsion system, genera­
tors, bow thruster and fin stabilizers. where.
W8 - weight of joinery and partitions, such as furniture, ceiling and CBD - block coefficient based on depth.
walls. k, a, b, c, d – coefficients.
W9 - weight of liquids, such as oil and water for main machinery, Coefficients in equations (7)–(9) can be calculated using regression
lubrication oil and fire-fighting system. analysis or similar ship characteristics.
To accurately estimate light displacement, the most effective method Karayannis et al. (1999) proposed a weight prediction method based
is to sum up the mass of all of the yacht’s components. Though in many on Watson’s method for fast ferries with lengths ranging from 40 to 120
cases there is insufficient data to calculate the mass of the light yacht m. This approach is based on a corrected formula (6) which takes into
using this method at the parametric design stage. This is a particular account the different specific weights of the hull’s underwater and
problem at the parametric design stage. Therefore, the estimation of above-water parts (without superstructures and deckhouses), as follows:
yacht light displacement is key at this stage of yacht design and is often
Em = L(B + d) + 0.85L(D − d) (10)
more important considerations of hull shape at the preliminary design
stage. Karayannis et al. used linear regression to approximate the Em factor
The following methods are commonly used to solve this problem: as follows (Grubisic, 2008):

Em = 0.974 L (B + D) – 0.365 (11)

• the comparison of similar types of yachts,
Grubisic (2008) proposed a set of regression equations for estimating

2
T. Cepowski Ocean Engineering 231 (2021) 109086

small craft weight. These regressions were developed using data from 34
vessels ranging in length from 10 to 65 m and with detailed weight
breakdowns. But only 5 motor yachts were used in the study. Grubisic
developed the following regression equations to estimate:
• structure weight WK by using Watson’s method, as follows:
boat-building and marketing in the USA and overseas to 1999. The paper
presented a statistical analysis of boat dimensions, weight and price
based on a BOATDSS database, which contained the data of 850 boat
designs of up to 23 m in length. The following equation was developed
by using nonlinear regression in the paper to estimate hull weight on the
basis of boat length:

WK = 0.0112 E1.3318
S (12) WH = 599.142⋅exp(0.0796245 ⋅ L) (20)

where. where:
ES – effective surface area. WH – hull weight [lb],
L – Length [ft].
• propulsion weight W200, as follows: Bortnowska developed a set of regressions which can be applied in
∑ the initial design stage to determine the basic dimensions, displacement
(L⋅B⋅D⋅ PB )0.45
W200 = (13) and light displacement of small recreational yachts. Bortnowska pro­
31.45
posed the following regression to estimate yacht light displacement
where: using the length and breadth product:
PB – propulsion power. LTD = 1.35446 + 0.00673 (LOA ⋅ B)1.81182 (21)

• electrical machinery weight W300, as follows: where:

( ∑ )0.466 LTD – light displacement.
W300 = 0.036 L⋅B⋅D⋅ PEG (14) LOA – length overall.
B – breadth.
where: But the database used in the research only contained 31 motor yacht
PEG – electrical power. designs built in Europe with a length of up to 22 m.

• electronic equipment weight W400, as follows: 2. The aims of this research

W400 = 0.00053⋅L 2.254
(15)
There is a small number of equations presented in literature to esti­
mate light displacement based on design parameters, such as hull length,
• electronic equipment weight W400 for small vessels, as follows: breadth or draft for a motor yacht with a length of over 30 m. With this
in mind, the first aim of this research was to develop a set of single and
W400 = 0365 + 0.015⋅L⋅B⋅D (16)
complex design equations to estimate yacht light displacement (LTD). In
this study the following yacht design parameters were considered to
• auxiliary machinery weight W500, as follows: estimate light displacement:

W500 = 0.000772(L⋅B)1.784 (17)
• outfitting weight W600, as follows:
W600 = 0.0097⋅L2.132 (18)
• special systems weight W700, as follows:
W700 = 0.000168⋅L2.936 (19)
Because the Grubisic method was developed by the use the data of
only 5 motor yachts, it should be tested when applied for motor yacht
design. Due to variations in equipment and propulsion, well-known
methods used in ship design theory to estimate equipment, outfitting,
and machinery weight given in Watson (1998), Schneekluth (1998), and
Papanikolaou (2012) are inapplicable to motor yacht design.
There are various estimation methods in open literature that can be
used to estimate the total lightweight of typical cargo ships for para­
metric design. Piko (1980), Kristensen (2013, 2014) and Papanikolaou
(2014) prepared a set of regression analyses and equations for estima­
tion of light ship mass for various types of ships by using statistical
methods. Grubisic developed a lightweight regression model by the use
of displacement of 143 different small crafts with lengths ranging from
10 to 55 m in the aforementioned study (2008). However, these motor
yachts were not included in the data ship collection. Unfortunately, the
number of regression functions for yacht light displacement estimation
is rather scant in literature. Only Vasconcellos et al. (1999), and Bort­
nowska (2014) presented statistical analyses of the light weight and the
main characteristics of small motor yachts.
Vasconcellos et al. discussed the complexity of small recreational
• (LOA) Overall length – the distance between the extreme points of
the hull, measured parallel to the waterline of the loaded yacht,
excluding hull equipment elements
• (B) Breadth: The distance from the inside of the plating on one side to
a similar point on the other side measured at the broadest part of the
yacht.
• (T) Draught: The vertical distance measured amidships from the
waterline to the underside of the keel.
• (LOAxB) the product of LOA and B relating to the surface area of the
yacht deck
The single design equation took only one parameter as input. The
complex design equations based on all these design parameters and their
combinations are as follows:
LTD = f(LOA, B, d) (22)
where:
LTD - estimated yacht light displacement,
f – a design formula to calculate light displacement.
In naval engineering, yacht light displacement is estimated by using
various design parameters. Bortnowska (2014) estimated the light
displacement of a small motor yacht on the basis of the length and
surface area of the deck, calculated as product of length and breadth.
Vasconcelos et al. estimated the light displacement of a high-speed boat
on the basis of its length. Bortnowska (2014) and Vasconcelos developed
regression equations for small motor yachts. It is not known whether the
regression equations for large motor yachts could be based on these
parameters. Therefore, the second aim of this study was to identify the
best/worst parameters among all of the above design parameters that
offer the most effective estimation of light displacement.

3
T. Cepowski Ocean Engineering 231 (2021) 109086

In this article, the data of 240 steel motor yachts with lengths from methods used. These statistical parameters were calculated by the use of
30 m to 86 m were used that were built from 2000 to 2020. The data the following equations:
source was Sea-web Ships (2020). The Sea-web Ship database is a ∑ ∑ ∑
n⋅ (LTDr ⋅LTD) − ( LTDr )( LTD)
collection of yachts, including sister yachts, that are of matching or R = √[̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
∑ ∑ ][ ∑ ∑ ]̅ (23)
similar parameters and dimensions. Verification was carried out to n⋅ LTD2r − ( LTDr )2 n⋅ LTD2 − ( LTD)2
remove vessels that were identical or had similar characteristics.
√̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
The database was divided into two groups in order to arrive at more ∑
(LTDr − LTD)2
efficient results and to minimize the impact of the configuration and RMSE = (24)
n
materials needed to outfit extremely small and large yachts:
where:
- small yachts ranging in length from 30 to 50 m,
R – The Pearson correlation coefficient.
- large yachts ranging in length from 50 to 86 m.
RMSE – A Root Mean Square Error.
LTDr – A light displacement from the yacht database.
The range of design parameter values for particular types are shown
LTD – An estimated light displacement,
in Table 1.
n – the number of yachts in database.

3. Research methods
Computational Intelligence, commonly defined as soft computing, is
a set of nature-inspired computational methods, such as artificial neural
networks, fuzzy logic, evolutionary computation, machine learning,
probabilistic reasoning, statistics or regression random search method.
The common feature of these methods is using a heuristic approach
which can lead to a less than optimal solution.
Often in shipbuilding, several computational intelligent methods are
used to estimate various ship characteristics. Alkan et al. (2004) used
several algorithms to calculate fishing vessel stability parameters.
Abramowski (2013) developed a model for the determination of effec­
tive ship power through the use of neural networks. Gurgen et al. (2018)
applied an artificial neural network to predict the main dimensions of
chemical tankers. Ekinci et al. (2011) used several soft computing
methods to estimate the main design parameters of oil/chemical
tankers. Mao and Chen (2018) applied an artificial neural network
method to discover ship-generated wave characteristics in an inland
channel. Wang et al. (2018) applied a Radial Basis Function Neural
Network to design a rudder roll stabilization system. The list of articles
where intelligent computational methods were used in naval engineer­
ing is long. The authors usually conclude that these "intelligent" methods
are better than conventional methods, such as the regression method.
In this study, the following methods were applied to estimate yacht
light displacement:
• common regression methods to develop simple design equations,
• artificial neural networks and the author’s method based on random
searching to develop the complex design equations for more than one
input parameter.
The third aim of the research was to compare the accuracy of these
methods for the estimation of yacht light displacement.
3.2. An assessment of multicollinearity in regression model
Multicollinearity in statistics is a phenomenon in which one pre­
dictor variable in a regression model is linearly correlated with another
predictor or predictors. There are several methods to handle multi­
collinearity in the regression. In this study Variance Inflation Factor
(VIF) was applied to measure and assess multicollinearity.
VIF factor is calculated separately for every predictor (i) in the
regression model as follows:
1
VIFi = (25)
1 − R2i
where:
VIFi - Variance inflation factor for the predictor (i).
R2i - multiple correlation coefficient of a given predictor (i) and other
predictors in the regression model.
A variance inflation factor value may range from 1 upwards. There is
no formal VIF limit value. Usually, when a regression model is only
developed for identification purpose, a multicollinearity must be
considered and a low VIF limit of 3 or 4 should be assumed.
Generally, for prediction purpose, multicollinearity has no destruc­
tive effect on the model when the VIF limit value does not exceed 10.
Therefore, in this study this value was assumed as a VIF limit value for
all predictors in the regression model.
Random search method.
In this study, a random search method was used to develop regres­
sion models with more than one independent variable. This search
method is based on a modified Multiple Nonlinear Regression model in
which variables and base function are fully randomized.
A Multiple Nonlinear Regression model was used by Adamowski
et al. in (2010), as follows:
Y = a0 + a1 Xi + a2 Xj + a3 X2i + … + ak Xi Xj (26)

3.1. An assessment of estimation accuracy where:

Y – dependent variable.
Common statistical parameters, such as the Pearson correlation co­ X – independent variables,
efficient (R) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) were used in order to a0, a1, …, ak – regression coefficients,
assess the accuracy of the developed equations and compare the k - observation number.
In a common multiple nonlinear regression (MNLR) model the
Table 1 relationship between the dependent and independent variables are non-
The minimal and maximal values of yacht subtypes, where LTD – light linear (Adamowski et al., 2010), Meng Tian, Yuehong Su (2018). But the
displacement, LOA – length overall, B – breadth, d – draught and LOAxB – relation between the independent variables X and coefficients a
product of LOA and B. continue to be linear.
LOA [m] d [m] B [m] LOAxB [m2] LTD [t] In this study this MNLR model was modified by using a collection of
Small yacht Min 29.3 7.0 1.6 205.1 124.0 power functions (f1, f2, …, fk) rather than linear and quadratic functions.
Max 50.0 10.2 4.3 509.0 607.0 The following modified MNLR model was applied to develop the
Large yacht Min 50.9 8.9 2.7 462.8 400.0 regression formulas for more than one input design parameter:
Max 86.0 13.8 4.4 1121.5 1684.0

4
T. Cepowski
LTD = a0 + a1 ⋅ f1(X1) + a2 ⋅ f2(X2) + ... + as ⋅ fk-3(Xn-3) ⋅ fk-2(Xn-2) ⋅ fk-1(Xn-1)
⋅ fk(Xn)
where.
X1, X2, .., Xn, - input design parameters,
f1, f2, …, fk, - power functions,
a0, a1, …, ak – regression coefficients.
The author developed a new algorithm to uncover the best equations
through a process of independent variable randomization. The general
algorithm scheme is shown in Fig. 1.
The most effective combinations of independent variables were
randomly searched through all their possible combinations in this al­
gorithm. The base functions (f1, f2, …, fk) were found through the use of
random search in a collection of power functions. Next, a root mean
square error RMSE and Variance Inflation Factor VIF values for each
regression model were calculated. Then, the VIF maximum value (VIF­
max) of all of the regression predictors was selected.
Finally, the best functions offering the lowest RMSE error and VIF­
max value less than 10 were selected through a looped search and a list
was created.
The author developed a computer application (Cepowski, 2020) to
implement this algorithm. This program was applied to develop
nonlinear regression equations presented in the article.
3.3. Artificial neural networks
An artificial neural network model was developed through the
analysis of a biological nervous structure. A mathematical model of a
neural network was created, by the use of this structure and its signal
transmission. An artificial neural network is built from an input, output
and one or more hidden layers that consist of neurons (Haykin, 1994). In
an artificial neuron, values from previous layers (x1, x2, …, xn) are
transmitted by the use of bias and weights (w0, w1, …, wn) as follows:
Fig. 1. A general algorithm scheme, where: RMSE– Root Mean Square Error;
VIFmax - the VIF maximum value of all regression predictors; a0, a1, …, ak – are
coefficients of the MLNR model.
Ocean Engineering 231 (2021) 109086
(27) ( )
∑
n
y=φ wi ⋅ xi (28)
i=0
where:
xi – neuron input signal,
y – neuron output signal,
wi – weights,
w0 – bias.
φ – activation function.
The sum result value of every neuron was transmitted to the output
through the use of an activation function. A number of functions are
often used as activation functions in the hidden layer and the output
layer. In this study, the following activation functions were used:
• purelin (where the neuron activation is passed on directly as the
output):
y=x (29)
• standard logistic function:
1
y= (30)
1 + exp(− x)
The aim of the training process is to calculate the weight value wi of
all neurons in a neural network structure on the basis of input and output
data. The main problems are the selection of the network structure, and
the calculation of neuron weight and bias values. Therefore, different
types of neural network structure and training methods were used.
In regression tasks, a multilayer perceptron (MLP), consisting of an
input, hidden and output layer is often applied. Most often a back­
propagation learning algorithm is utilized to calculate the weight and
bias values of the neurons in this network.
Overfitting phenomenon is the main problem in neural networks
learning. A test set method is usually used to detect and avoid this
phenomenon. In this method, about 50–70 percent of randomly selected
data is used for network training. The remaining data is used for network
validating during training and network testing.
In this study, various types of neural networks were used to estimate
light displacement. To develop the neural networks, the following as­
sumptions were made:
• Sum-Of-Square function as an error function,
• Backpropagation algorithm (Patterson, 1996; Haykin, 1994,; Fau­
sett, 1994), Scaled Conjugate and Gradient Descent, and
Levenberga-Marquardt (Bishop, 1995; Shepherd, 1997) as a learning
algorithm
• Linear and logistic sigmoid as activation functions,
• training, validation and test sets include 50, 25 and 25 percent of all
cases, respectively.
Root Mean Square Error RMSE and Pearson correlation coefficient R
were used to measure the accuracy assessment of the neural networks.
4. Results and discussion
The result of the research was a set of equations for the estimation of
yacht light displacement formulas for:
• only one design parameter as an input through the use of linear and
nonlinear regression,
• more than one design parameter as inputs by using a Random search
method and artificial neural networks.
The result of the research was a set of equations for the estimation of
formulas for yacht light displacement:
5
T. Cepowski Ocean Engineering 231 (2021) 109086

• only one design parameter as an input by using linear and nonlinear
regression,
• more than one design parameters as inputs by using Random
searching method and artificial neural networks.
Heteroscedasticity is not present in the regression models based on
parameter LOAxB.
4.2. Complex design formulas using more than one design parameter
developed by the use of random search method

4.1. Simple design formulas utilising the only one design parameter Table 3 shows a list of 9 complex regression equations developed for
small yachts by using the Random Search method. The search was begun
The research shows that the most accurate equations for light from multiple linear model 39. But the “d” predictor in this model was
displacement estimate for only one design parameter calculated through not statistically significant, therefore it was removed. The other models
the use of linear and nonlinear regression are as follows: did not contain this predictor. The Author’s computer application
Small yachts: (Cepowski, 2020) was used to support this search.
Fig. 4 shows RMSE value changes through the evolution of equations
LTD = 0.0372 ⋅ LOA2.4136 (31)
presented in Table 3 by the use of Random Search method. Root Mean
LTD = 0.0585 ⋅ B4.011 (32) Square Error, Pearson correlation coefficient (R) and the VIF maximum
values of all these equations are presented in Table 4. This table shows
LTD = 62.36 ⋅ d1.7744 (33) that Equation (47) is the most accurate of all of the equations that were
LTD = 0.0177 ⋅ (LOAxB) 1.6607
(34) developed using this method. This equation is characterised by the
lowest RMSE value (equals 35.3 t), the highest Pearson correlation co­
Large yachts: efficient value equals 0.947 and a relatively low VIF value calculated as
equalling 3.2.
LTD = 0.0384 ⋅ LOA2.4213 (35)
An analysis of variance and regression, the overall p-values of F-test
LTD = − 1769.7 + 243.4 B (36) and the individual p-values presented in Tables 5 and 6 show that
equation (47) and all of the predictors in this equation are statistically
LTD = 27.785 ⋅ d 2.8346
(37) significant. The t-values presented in Table 6 show that the “a2 ⋅
LTD = − 377.98 + 1.8295 ⋅ LOAxB (38) LOA− 0.44” predictor is statistically the most significant of all predictors
of this regression.
where: Using the method described above, the following equation was
LTD – light displacement [t], developed to estimate the light displacement LTD of large yachts:
LOA – length overall [m],
B – breadth [m], LTD = − 11799.5 + 0.141 ⋅ B3.4 + 8210.16 ⋅ LOA0.1–1.16649 ⋅ B2.65 ⋅ d− 3.3 ⋅
d - draught moulded [m], LOA0.7 (48)
LOAxB – product of LOA and B [m2]. Equation (48) is characterized by:
The values of the Root Mean Square Error and Pearson R-Squared
coefficient relating to regressions (31)–(38) are given in Table 2. Figs. 2 • small RMSE estimation value, which is 74.9 t,
and 3 show the relationship between LBP, B, d, LOAxB and LTD and • a high Pearson correlation coefficient value, which is 0.974,
residuals calculated using these regressions. The residuals were calcu­ • a small VIF maximum value of all regression predictors, which equals
lated as the difference between the estimated and observed value of LTD. 3.4.
This figure suggests that heteroscedasticity may be present in equation
(31) – (33) and (35)–(37). Figs. 5 and 6 show the regression and residuals graphics of Equation
In this group of parameters, the product of LOA and B has the most (47) and (48). These figures indicate the largest portion of data that
impact on LTD. The use of this parameter offers: coincided with a zero error line in the error range from around:

• small RMSE error estimation values, which are: • -25 to 40 tonnes for equation (47)
• 60.22 t for small yachts, • -71 do 75 tonnes for equation (48).
• 100.7 t for large yachts,
• high Pearson correlation coefficient values, which are: The residual plots in Figs. 5 and 6 suggest that heteroscedasticity is
• 0.84 for small yachts not present in equations (47) and (48).
• 0.95 for large yachts.

The significance of dependencies (34) and (38) is also confirmed by 4.3. Complex design formulas utilising more than one design parameter
the residuals shown in Figs. 2 and 3, and low errors, ranging from − 110 developed through the use of artificial neural networks
to 100 t for small yachts, and from − 320 to 230 for large yachts.
In this study, artificial neural networks were trained and tested with
Statistica software (TIBCO, 2017). The following neural networks for
Table 2
light displacement regression were found:
The values of the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Pearson correlation
coefficient (R) relating to regressions (8)–(11).
• multilayer perceptron (MLP),
Input parameter Equation no RMSE [t] R [-]
• Generalized regression neural network (GRNN),
Small yacht LOA (31) 68.76 0.79 • Radial basis function network (RBF),
B (32) 70.81 0.78
• Linear network (LN).
d (33) 69.92 0.80
LOAxB (34) 60.22 0.84
Large yacht LOA (35) 152.95 0.89 Overall length, breadth and draught were used as an input layer and
B (36) 133.51 0.92 light displacement mass was used as the output layer for the neural
d (37) 220.27 0.75 networks. Various numbers of neurons in the hidden layer(s) and
LOAxB (38) 100.7 0.95
training methods were tested in order to acquire the closest output

6
T. Cepowski Ocean Engineering 231 (2021) 109086

Fig. 2. The light displacement (LTD) of small motor yachts as a design parameter function and residuals scatterplots.

7
T. Cepowski Ocean Engineering 231 (2021) 109086

Fig. 3. The light displacement (LTD) of large motor yachts as a design parameter function and residuals scatterplots.

8
T. Cepowski Ocean Engineering 231 (2021) 109086

Table 3
A list of regression equations to estimate the light displacement LTD of small
yachts, where a0, …, a4 -regression coefficient.
No Equation Regression coefficients

a0 a1 a2 a3 a4

(39) LTD = a0 − 584.77 7.7275 32.4423 116.97 0.012

+ a1 ⋅ LOA
+ a2 ⋅ B +
a3 ⋅ d + a4
⋅ LOA ⋅ B ⋅
d
(40) LTD = a0 − 1270.9 394.79 2.1E-03 8632.78
+ a1 ⋅
B0.56 + a2 ⋅
LOA2.9 +
a3 ⋅ B− 2.85
⋅ d1.85 ⋅
LOA0.12
(41) LTD = a0 − 9479.6 0.2261 6985.88 7.05910E+08
+ a1 ⋅ Fig. 4. The RMSE value through evolution of the equation (47)
B3.05 + a2 ⋅
LOA1/12 +
a3 ⋅ B− 2.55 Table 4
⋅ d2.75 ⋅ The values of the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Pearson correlation coeffi­
LOA− 3.45 cient (R) and the VIF maximum value of all regression predictors (VIFmax) in the
(42) LTD = a0 − 1136.4 2.2089 88.3773 1.00983E+07 regression equation.
+ a1 ⋅ B2.2
+ a2 ⋅ No RMSE [t] R VIFmax
LOA2/3 +
39 39.1 0.934 66.8
a3 ⋅ B− 2.35
40 37.3 0.940 2.4
⋅ d2.2 ⋅
41 35.9 0.945 3.5
LOA− 2.2
42 35.8 0.945 3.3
(43) LTD = a0 − 3199.8 3.5505 1279.17 5.76912E+07
43 35.7 0.945 3.6
+ a1 ⋅ B2
44 35.5 0.946 3.0
+ a2 ⋅
45 35.5 0.946 3.1
LOA0.24 +
46 35.4 0.946 3.2
a3 ⋅ B− 2.35
47 35.3 0.947 3.2
⋅ d2.4 ⋅
LOA− 2.75
(44) LTD = a0 − 8701.8 0.5034 6511.81 8.90956E+06
+ a1 ⋅ B2.8
Table 5
+ a2 ⋅
An analysis of variance for equation (47)
LOA1/13 +
a3 ⋅ B− 2.95 ANOVA SS MS F-test p
⋅ d2.3 ⋅
Regression 601683 200561 867.968 0
LOA− 1.85
Errors 69910.8 1344
(45) LTD = a0 − 10888 0.1423 8485.05 1.02021E+07
Total 671594
+ a1 ⋅ B3.3
+ a2 ⋅
LOA1/15 +
a3 ⋅ B− 2.7 ⋅ A network which offers the smallest testing error is usually referred
d2.1 ⋅ to as the best neural network. It can be observed in Tables 7 and 8 that
LOA− 1.95 from among all of the network types, the best solution was obtained
(46) LTD = a0 5852.2 0.2209 − 9288.54 7.64521E+07
while using the MLP neural network with one neuron in the hidden
+ a1 ⋅ B3.1
+ a2 ⋅
layer. The RMSE error values of the network to estimate the light
LOA− 1/8 displacement LTD of.
+ a3 ⋅ B − 3
⋅ d2.55 ⋅ • small yachts calculated as 47.1, 26.8 and 47.1 tonnes for training,
LOA− 2.5
validation and test sets, respectively,
(47) LTD = a0 1669.77 0.0875 − 8817.63 7.32222E+07
+ a1 ⋅ B3.5 • large yachts calculated as 75.5, 74 and 95.3 tonnes for training,
+ a2 ⋅ validation and test sets, respectively.
LOA− 0.45
+ a3 ⋅ These values lead to a small difference between a validation and
B− 3.3 ⋅ d2.4
⋅ LOA− 2.25
testing error in relation to RMSE error in the training set. Statistics for
the test set are particularly important, as the data in this set was only
used to test the network, not develop it. The test set statistic values
values to the data observed. The number of neurons in the first hidden testify to the ability of this network to generalize new cases. The RMSE
layer was equal to the number of training cases in the GRNN neural error values for the test data vary slightly from training and validation
network. set statistics. As a result, these neural networks are probably not over­
Tables 7 and 8 show the types and number of neurons in the hidden fitted and could offer generalization ability. The structure of these
layers, as well as the training methods and RMSE errors of the developed neural networks is the same and shown visually in Fig. 7. Figs. 8 and 9
neural networks to estimate the light displacement LTD of small and show the scattering of points and residuals for training, validation and
large yachts. test sets, as well as an error histogram for all sets. These figures indicate

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T. Cepowski Ocean Engineering 231 (2021) 109086

Table 6
Regression analysis for Equation (47)
Std Error t-Value P > |t| 95% Lower Limits 95% Upper Limits VIF

a0 165.25 10.1045 7.25E-14 1338.17 2001.36

a1 ⋅ B3.5 0.01459 5.99706 1.95E-07 0.05820 0.116737 2.25
a2 ⋅ LOA− 0.45 823.001 − 10.714 9.10E-15 − 10469.1 − 7166.15 3.16
a3 ⋅ B− 3.3 ⋅ d2.4 ⋅ LOA− 2.25
7.64E+06 9.58695 4.37E-13 5.79E+07 8.85E+07 1.74

Fig. 5. Regression and residuals graphics presenting Equation (47)

Fig. 6. Regression and residuals graphics presenting Equation (48).

Table 7
An overview of the neural networks that were developed to estimate the light displacement of small yachts, where: BP - Error back propagation algorithm, CG -
Conjugate gradient algorithm, KM - K-Means algorithm, KN – K-Nearest Neighbour algorithm, PI - Pseudo-Inverse algorithm and SS - sub-Sample algorithm.
No Network type Number of neurons in hidden layers Training method/number of training epochs RMSE Error [-]

Training set Validation set Test set All sets

1a MLP 1 BP/50,CG/5 47.1 26.8 47.1 42.84

2 MLP 6 BP/50,CG/52 49.9 27.7 48.0 44.8
3 RBF 7 KM,KN,PI 35.6 30.3 45.8 37.05
4 RBF 5 KM,KN,PI 37.2 35.9 47.6 39.57
5 Linear – PI 37.1 37.0 53.5 41.54
6 RBF 8 KM,KN,PI 36.6 37.4 49.8 30.3
7 GRNN 28x2 SS 32.8 38.7 47.7 38.29
a
Found to be the best neural network for research.

that the largest portion of the data coincided with a zero error line in the The mathematical form of the neural networks to estimate the light
error range from about: displacement LTD of.

• -50 to 50 tonnes to estimate the light displacement of small yachts, • small yachts is shown in the following relations:
• -100 to 100 tonnes to estimate the light displacement of large yachts.

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T. Cepowski Ocean Engineering 231 (2021) 109086

Table 8
An overview of the neural networks that were developed to estimate the light displacement of large yachts, where: BP - Error back propagation algorithm, CG -
Conjugate gradient algorithm, KM - K-Means algorithm, KN – K-Nearest Neighbour algorithm, PI - Pseudo-Inverse algorithm and SS - sub-Sample algorithm.
No Network type Number of neurons in hidden layers Training method/number of training epochs RMSE Error [-]

Training set Validation set Test set All sets

1a MLP 1 BP/49 75.5 74.0 95.3 80.62

2 MLP 7 BP/50,CG/50 74.8 68.8 102.2 80.75
3 MLP 2 BP/50,CG/93 71.4 71.6 99.0 78.91
4 RBF 7 KM,KN,PI 72.4 77.6 98.6 80.79
5 RBF 5 KM,KN,PI 73.7 81.0 100.2 82.69
6 Linear – PI 75.3 81.3 96.7 82.70
7 RBF 3 KM,KN,PI 80.7 90.1 99.3 88.28
8 GRNN 75x2 SS 63.9 91.6 94.2 78.90
a
Found to be the best neural network for research.

( )
2.186
LTD = 483.091 − 0.89 + 0.2567 (49)
1 + exp(− v1 )

• large yachts is shown in the following relations:

[( ) ]
1.7945
LTD = 1213 − 0.3939 + 0.3751 (50)
1 + exp(− v2 )

where:
LTD - the light displacement [t],
v1, v2 – variables calculated from the following relations:

v1 = 0.41(B⋅0.3952 − 2.7668) + 1.433(d⋅0.372 − 0.595) + 0.82(LOA⋅0.048

− 1.416) − 0.864
(51)
Fig. 7. The structure of an artificial neural network, where B – breadth, d –
draught, LOA – length over all and LTD – light displacement of the yacht.

Fig. 8. Regression and residuals graphics presenting a neural network to estimate the light displacement LTD of a small motor yacht.

Fig. 9. Regression and residuals graphics presenting a neural network to estimate the light displacement LTD of a large motor yacht.

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T. Cepowski Ocean Engineering 231 (2021) 109086

v2 = 1.192(B ⋅ 0.2083 − 1.875) + 0.807(d ⋅ 0.6667 − 1.8) + 0.82 - small yachts ranging in length from 30 to 50 m,
(LOA ⋅ 0.0307 − 1.561) − 1.4723 (52) - large yachts ranging in length from 50 to 86 m.
This approach meant that to some extent the differences between the
where B is the breadth (m), d is the draught (m), LOA is the length over design characteristics of extremely large and small yachts, such as
all (m). superstructures or outfitting could be taken into account.
Tables 7 and 8 show that minimal errors were found in GRNN
network training sets. But a light displacement estimation by the use of As a result of this approach, yacht light displacement errors were
these neural networks leads to large increases in RMSE error values in relatively low and depending on the method used, only equalled:
the validation and test sets. For example, RMSE error values of GRNN
network no. 8 in Table 8 were calculated as 63.9, 91.6 and 94.2 tonnes • from 35 to 60 tonnes for small yachts,
for the training, validation and test sets. These values led to large dif­ • from 75 to 101 tonnes for large yachts.
ference between a validation and testing error of 43 and 47% in relation
to a RMSE error in the training set. This can result in the phenomenon of Aside from standard linear and nonlinear regression methods,
overfitting and an inability to generalize the data in this neural network. computational intelligence techniques, such as artificial neural networks
The use of the RBF neural network offered acceptable estimates, and and the author’s Random search approach were used to develop these
was more accurate than the GRNN neural network estimations. equations. This is an improvement over previous studies in which design
The MLP No. 1 networks in Tables 7 and 8 deserve special attention equations were developed using classical statistical methods. It was
due to their simple structure (only one neuron in the hidden layer) and found that the use of computational intelligence techniques was more
small differences in RMSE error between validation, test and training successful than that of linear and non-linear regression methods. The
sets, as well as relatively small errors in all sets. This proves that a neural Random search method proved to be the most effective of these
network with even a small number of neurons in the hidden layer can methods, and the formulas (47) and (48) developed through the use of
offer good prediction and generalization capabilities. this method are the most accurate and offer the lowest root mean square
error and highest Pearson correlation coefficient values.
In the simple design equations, the product of LOA and B has the
4.4. A comparison of methods in terms of estimation accuracy greatest effect on the light displacement of a small and large motor
yacht. This was also confirmed in a Bortnowska study (2016) which
Table 9 shows the values of Root mean square error and Pearson stated, that the deck area is an appropriate parameter for the estimation
correlation coefficient relating to the best models of each method. This of yacht light displacement. In contrast, the draught of a large motor
table shows that equations developed using computational intelligence yacht has the lowest effect on light displacement. In complex design
techniques, such as random search and artificial neural networks, are equations, length over all (LOA), breadth (B) and draught (d) have the
much more accurate than equations developed using the standard greatest effect on the light displacement of a small and large motor
approach which focus on linear and nonlinear regressions. This table yacht.
also indicates that equations (47) and (48), developed using the Random The design formulas presented in this article have been developed for
search method, are the most accurate. the practical use of yacht designers. In this respect, an important factor is
the possibility of using these formulas for the manual calculation by a
5. Conclusions layman with a basic knowledge of computer techniques. Taking this into
account, equations (34), (38), (47) and (48) developed by the afore­
The goals of this research were as follows: mentioned regression methods may be implemented easily, for example,
in a spreadsheet. These equations are easily applicable to manual cal­
1. To develop the most accurate formulas for the estimation of yacht culations without the need additional computer software. A yacht
light displacement, designer can easily check basic buoyancy formula (1) using these
2. To indicate the best/worst parameters which have the greatest effect equations.
on yacht light displacement, However, artificial neural network models are much more difficult to
3. To compare the application of the artificial neural network and the implement by a normal user. This is due to the complicated neural
nonlinear regression method for the estimation of yacht light network structure, the need to normalize inputs and outputs, and the
displacement. activation of neurons.
The main advantage of the simple regression equation structure is to
In this study, relatively accurate formulas for the estimation of yacht show the clear relationships between design parameters and light
light displacement were developed separately for: displacement. The artificial neural network has a complex mathematical
structure, with which it is impossible to show these relationships clearly.
Table 9 The use of artificial neural networks is required to detect overfitting
Root mean square error (RMSE) and Pearson correlation coefficient (R) values phenomenon. The neural networks developed in this research lost 50%
relating to the best models for each method. data in total for validation and testing. This mean that regression
Method Small motor yacht Large motor yacht methods allow for a more effective use of data than neural networks, as
Eq. RMSE R [-] Eq. RMSE R [-]
they does not require validation.
No [t] No [t] The weight estimation methods proposed in the article are an
alternative approach to the methods used by Watson and Gilfillan
Simple design formulas (34) 60.22 0.840 (38) 100.7 0.950
developed by the use of (1976), Karayannis et al. (1999) and Grubisic (2008). The formulas
Linear or Nonlinear proposed in the article have the advantage of being developed primarily
regression for steel motor yachts. As a result, these equations can take motor yacht
Complex design formulas (47) 35.3 0.947 (48) 74.9 0.974 characteristics into account to a greater degree than previous ap­
developed the use of
Random Search
proaches. The disadvantage of the proposed methods is that they cannot
Complex design formulas (49) 42.48 0.923 (50) 80.62 0.970 estimate the weight of the yacht’s components. However, because of this
developed the use of simplification, the relationships are mathematically clearer and the
Artificial Neural weight calculation phase is simpler. The weight estimation approach
Networks
presented in this article extends the methods proposed by Vasconcellos

12
T. Cepowski
et al. (1999) and Bortnowska (2014), and offers an estimated yacht
weight to a much greater degree, from 30 to 86 m in length. It is also
novel that the equations presented in the article were developed using
database of the latest motor yachts. As a result, these equations could
include the most recent trends in motor yacht development to an extent.
All of the equations expanded upon in this article can only by applied
to steel motor yachts with regards to the min/max range values
parameter presented in Table 1. These equations can only have practical
application at the parametric design stage for the estimation of light
displacement in the case of conventional motor yachts.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
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