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Procedia Computer Science 179 (2021) 399–406

5th International Conference on Computer Science and Computational Intelligence 2020

Fiscal decentralization analysis that affect economic performance

using geographically weighted regression (GWR)
Syarifah Diana Permaia,*, Ardelia Christinaa, Alexander Agung Santoso Gunawanb
a
Statistics Department, School of Computer Science, Bina Nusantara University, Jakarta, Indonesia 11480
b
Computer Science Department, School of Computer Science, Bina Nusantara University, Jakarta, Indonesia 11480

Abstract

Economic performance is one of the important things that have to be evaluated by the government. There are many
factors that affect economic performance. This paper aims to evaluate the effect of fiscal decentralization indicators
on regional economic performance in Sumatra Island, Indonesia. Based on the results of spatial dependency testing,
can be concluded that there are spatial dependencies on economic performance and spatial heterogeneity between
locations in Sumatra Island. Therefore, Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) which is a spatial modelling can
be used in this case. There are six independent variables that be used in this research, there are original local revenue,
general allocation fund, special allocation fund, and profit share fund, poverty rate and human development index.
The result showed that Geographically Weighted Regression model performed better than multiple linear regression
of Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model, providing different effect information at each location. Based on model
evaluation using RMSE, MAPE and AIC showed that GWR model is better than OLS model.
© 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
© 2020 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0)
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0)
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 5th International Conference on Computer Science and
Peer-review
Computationalunder responsibility
Intelligence 2020of the scientific committee of the 5th International Conference on Computer Science and
Computational Intelligence 2020
Keywords: Spatial Analysis ; Geographically Weighted Regression ; Fiscal Decentralization ; Economic Performance

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +0-000-000-0000 ; fax: +0-000-000-0000 .

E-mail address: syarifah.permai@binus.ac.id

1877-0509 © 2020 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V.

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0)
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 5th International Conference on Computer Science and
Computational Intelligence 2020

1877-0509 © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0)
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 5th International Conference on Computer Science and
Computational Intelligence 2020
10.1016/j.procs.2021.01.022
400 Syarifah Diana Permai et al. / Procedia Computer Science 179 (2021) 399–406
2 Author name / Procedia Computer Science 00 (2020) 000–000

1. Introduction

Over the past three decades, a great deal of economic decentralization has taken place in developing countries (1).
Through a decentralized economic system, these countries have changed their power and authority from centralized
to become more localized. The importance of this reform has been stated in many literatures by several experts saying
that decentralization is an important tool that will play a major role in improving government performance, providing
public services especially at the regional level by increasing its efficiency (2). Proponents of decentralization believe
that this economic transition can increase public finance (3).
The implementation of decentralization in Indonesia officially began on January 1, 2001. The enactment of fiscal
decentralization and regional autonomy along with legislation signified the transfer of fiscal authority from the central
government to regional governments in order to regulate and manage their own regions. Running for 18 years, fiscal
decentralization in Indonesia has raised a debate whether decentralization has improved economic performance or not.
Waluyo's research in Pujiati shows that fiscal decentralization increases economic growth relatively higher in central
business districts and regions rich in natural resources (4). Sumatra Island has a variety of natural resources ranging
from biotic natural resources to abiotic natural resources. In addition to the diversity of resources, the Sumatra island
has metropolitan areas hence of Sumatra island should get a good impact from the implementation of fiscal
decentralization. However, according to the data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics Indonesia (5), the
Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) growth rate on the Sumatra Island in 2017 is the bottom 2 with Bali and
Nusa Tenggara. The definition of fiscal decentralization is the transfer of authority and responsibility in regulating and
managing financial revenues and expenditures from the central government to local governments. if each region gets
an allocation of funds in accordance with the needs of the region, then that region can carry out development according
to the needs of the region without worrying about funds. It is important to know the condition of the influence of fiscal
decentralization in an area to improve economic performance.
Previous studies discussing the relationship of fiscal decentralization to economic performance have been carried
out by Sabilla and Jaya using fixed effect panel data regression method (6). Ganaie, Bhat, Kamaiah, and Khan using
dynamic ordinary least square method (7). However, the assumption is no spatial dependence on adjacent locations.
Therefore, this study was conducted to determine the effect of fiscal decentralization on economic performance by
considering the existence of spatial dependence on adjacent locations. There are some methods that can be used to
spatial data analysis. There are Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and Spatial Autoregression (SAR).
Permai, Tanty, and Rahayu performed GWR analysis for human development index in Jakarta (8). The results showed
that GWR model is better than linear regression model using Ordinary Least Square (OLS). Permai, Jauri, and
Chowanda using SAR model for average expenditure in Papua. The result showed that SAR model is better than OLS
model (9). The difference of this method is Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) can overcome spatial
dependency and spatial heterogeneity, unlike Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) which can only overcome spatial
dependency (10). Based on the results of spatial dependency testing and spatial heterogeneity testing on economic
performance showed that there are spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity. Therefore, this paper using GWR
method for economic performance analysis. GWR method is the modification of ordinary regression by adding local
spatial weights to each location. Weights are required in this method and can be obtained from the distance between
locations and selected bandwidth.

2. Multiple Linear Regression

Regression analysis is a statistical technique for investigating and modeling relationship between dependent
variable and independent variables. A regression model that involves more than one regressor variable is called a
multiple regression model. The equation for multiple linear regression in general as follows

𝒀𝒀 = 𝑿𝑿𝑿𝑿 + 𝜺𝜺 (1)

Where Y is a vector of dependent variable, X is a matrix of independent variables, 𝜷𝜷 is a vector of parameter in

regression model and 𝜺𝜺 is a vector of residual. Estimated parameter values are obtained by minimizing the sum squared
of errors as follows (11)
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Author name / Procedia Computer Science 00 (2020) 000–000 3

' = (𝑿𝑿𝑻𝑻 𝑿𝑿)"𝟏𝟏 𝑿𝑿𝑻𝑻 𝒀𝒀

𝜷𝜷 (2)

3. Geographically Weighted Regression

Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is a method of spatial data analysis based on the traditional regression
developed by adding local spatial weights. Local statistics are multi-valued, different values of the statistic can occur
in different locations within the study region. GWR extends the traditional regression framework by allowing local
rather than global parameters to be estimated so that the model is rewritten as (9)

(3)
where,
: Dependent variable at location-i
: Independent variable at location-i
: Coordinate for location-i
: Intercept location-i
: Coefficient for independent variable k at location-i
: Residual location-i

Estimated parameter values are obtained by following equation

(4)

Where is the estimate of , is a weight matrix at location i. Matrix has n set local parameters with
the following structure

The parameters for each row are estimated using the following equation

(5)

Where i represents the row number of matrix and W(i) is a weight matrix having the following structure

The weights can be obtained from kernel function such as Gaussian kernel function expressed as follows

(6)

where b is the bandwidth and dij is the distance between location-i and location-j. Distance dij is a Euclidean distance
measured by the following equation
(7)
Where x and y denote the location coordinates. When bandwidth value is unknown, Cross Validation technique
can be used for the bandwidth selection. This technique minimizes the CV value CV= . With the n
value is the number of observations and the predicted value for index i is obtained by ruling out the i-th weight (the
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4 Author name / Procedia Computer Science 00 (2020) 000–000

weight on the observation is made zero). Partial parameter significance test is conducted to find out which independent
variables affect the dependent variable at each study location. The hypotheses of the partial significance test are:
H0: (Independent variable Xj at location-i does not affect dependent variable significantly)
H1: (Independent variable Xj at location-i affects dependent variable significantly)
The test statistic used in this hypothesis testing is for variable-k at location-i which is obtained from the
following equation (12)
(8)
The test is carried out times for each variable at each location. Null hypothesis is rejected if | | is
greater than t table . Where degrees of freedom is , and . S is the hat matrix, each
row consists of . The steps of performing GWR analysis method are follows
1. Calculate Euclidean distance between regencies/municipalities.
2. Determine the bandwidth using Cross Validation with Gaussian kernel function.
3. Calculate weight matrices (W)
4. Estimate the GWR model parameters.
5. Test the significance of the GWR model parameters for each location.

4. Data and Variable

Data of fiscal decentralization indicators was obtained from Directorate General of Fiscal Balance Ministry of
Finance (13). Data of economic performance was obtained from BPS (5). Spatial data in shapefile format was obtained
from gispedia website (14). There are several factors that affect the size of the gross regional domestic product,
including fiscal decentralization and the allocation of funds. In addition, the performance of each location can also
affect the amount of gross regional domestic product. The variables used are defined in Error! Reference source not
found.. The independent variables used in this research are fiscal decentralization indicators namely Original Local
Revenue, General Allocation Fund, Special Allocation Fund, and Profit Share Fund. The variables other than fiscal
decentralization that explain the GRDP are poverty rate and Human Development Index.

Table 1. Research Variable

Variable Description Unit
Y : GRDP Gross Regional Domestic Product Billion Rupiah
X1 : OLGR Original Local Government Revenue Billion Rupiah
X2 : GAF General Allocation Fund Billion Rupiah
X3 : SAF Special Allocation Fund Billion Rupiah
X4 : PSF Profit Share Fund Billion Rupiah
X5 : PR Poverty Rate Percent
X6 : HDI Human Development Index Index

5. Results and Discussion

To be able to see the mapping of the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) at each location (regencies and
cities on the Sumatra island) a GRDP graph is made for each location. The graph is presented in Figure 1. The graph
showed that locations that have larger bubbles and darker colors have a higher GRDP. There are several cities and
districts that have the highest GPDR. The top five are Kota Medan, Kab. Bengkalis, Kota Palembang, Kota Pekan
Baru dan Kab. Deli Serdang.
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Author name / Procedia Computer Science 00 (2020) 000–000 5

Fig 1. Maps of Gross Regional Domestic Product in Sumatra Island

Based on the results of multiple linear regression with ordinary least squares parameter estimation, the model
obtained as follows

Table 2. Parameter Estimation for OLS Model

Variable Coefficient Standard Error t
Intercept -2.037 1.290 -1.579
Log(X1) 0.210 0.094 2.237
Log(X2) 1.154 0.196 5.871
Log(X3) 0.136 0.134 1.018
Log(X4) 0.441 0.041 10.695
X5 -0.030 0.009 -3.295
X6 0.015 0.012 1.176

log( ) = -2.037 + 0.210 log(X1) +1.154 log(X2) + 0.136 log(X3) + 0.441 log(X4) - 0.030 X5 + 0.015 X6 (9)

The significance parameters test of regression model showed that F value is 2.167, it can be concluded that at 5%
significance level, there is at least one independent variable that significantly influences the dependent variable. From
the partial parameter significance test, the variables that significantly affect economic performance are OLGR (X1),
GAF (X2), PSF (X4) and PR (X5). Intercept value of -2.037 can be interpreted that the expected value of the log
(GRDP) when all independent variables are zero or constant is -2.037. This interpretation is difficult to understand
because the variable is still in the form of a logarithmic, so it needs to be transformed back to its original form using
the inverse of the log, which is the exponent. The expected value of GRDP when all independent variables are zero
or constant is exp(-2.037), which is around 0.1304292 (billion rupiah) or equal to 130442,200 rupiah.
Interpretation of the log-log model is obtained with an increase of 1%, the dependent variable will increase by
. The coefficient for the variable log(OLGR) is 0.210, it can be interpreted that 1% increase in OLGR
value, increases the GRDP value by 0.209%. The coefficient value for the variable log(GAF) is 1.154, it can be
interpreted that 1% increase in GAF value, then the increases GRDP value by 1.155%. The coefficient value for the
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6 Author name / Procedia Computer Science 00 (2020) 000–000

variable log(SAF) is 0.136, it can be interpreted that 1% increase in SAF value, increases GRDP value by 0.136%.
The coefficient value for the variable log(PSF) is 0.441, it can be interpreted that 1% increase in PSF value, increases
the GRDP value by 0.44%. The coefficient value for the PR variable is -0.029073, this means that for one percent
increase in the percentage of poor people, the GRDP expectation value is multiplied by which is
0.9713456 or reduced by (1-0.9713), which is 2.87%. The coefficient value for the HDI variable is 0.014736 which
means that each increase in the human development index by one unit will increase the GRDP value by
which is 1.014845 or equivalent to increase by 1.48%.
The R-squared value of the model is 79.75% which means 79.75% of the variation in the GRDP dependent variable
can be explained by the independent variables in the model while 20.25% is explained by other variables that are not
contained in the model. Linear regression assumptions of the error terms were tested, it was concluded that the
assumption of normality and the assumption of the absence of multicollinearity were met but the assumptions of non-
autocorrelation and the assumption of homoscedasticity were not met. Violation of assumptions and some variables
that do not significantly influence the dependent variables make the linear regression model not reliable. A violation
of the non-autocorrelation assumption means that there is a relationship between errors from one location to the other,
because the data is sorted by province, it is suspected that there is a spatial correlation from the model. The violation
of the homoscedasticity assumption also indicates an error variance that is not spatially constant.
Spatial dependency test is performed to determine whether there is a spatial dependency of the error of the multiple
linear regression model or not. If there are spatial dependencies it means that the error from one location has a
correlation with other locations that are close together. The hypotheses of the spatial dependency test are
H0: No spatial dependency
H1: There are spatial dependencies
Test statistic Z= 6.126. Under the significance level of 5%, null hypothesis is rejected if |Z| >Ztable. Because
6.126>1.96, H0 is rejected, it is concluded that the error of the global regression model has spatial dependencies.
Spatial dependency test is also carried out for the dependent variable namely log(GRDP). If there are spatial
dependencies, the GRDP of a location has a correlation with other nearby locations. Z test statistic value for the
dependent variable is Z = 7.838. Because 7.838 > 1.96, H0 is rejected, the dependent variable log(GRDP) has spatial
dependencies.
Spatial heterogeneity is used to determine whether the variance of OLS error terms are not constant. The hypotheses
of this test are
H0: (No spatial heterogeneity)
H1: At least one (There is a spatial heterogeneity)
The test statistic obtained is BP = 131.51. The null hypothesis is rejected if BP > . Under significance
level at 5%, 131.51 > 14.067 thus H0 is rejected, there is a spatial heterogeneity in the error of global regression model.
Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is performed to overcome spatial dependencies and spatial
heterogeneity in the error of global regression model. The bandwidth value obtained from the Gaussian kernel is
0.7770691. Because the GWR is a local model, the regression coefficient values for each variable differ for each
location. The example is the GWR model for Kab. Simeulue

log(y) = -12.486 + 0.084 log(X1) + 3.190 log(X2) + 0.468 log(X3) + 0.260 log(X4) - 0.026 X5 + 0.046 X6 (10)

The intercept value of -12.486 means that the expected value of the log(GRDP) when all independent variables are
zero or constant is -12.486. So, the expected value of GRDP when all independent variables are zero or constant is
3.779x10-6 (billion rupiah) or equivalent to 3.779 rupiah. Interpretation of the log-log model is obtained with an
increase of 1%, the dependent variable will increase by . The coefficient for the variable log(OLGR)
is 0.084. It can be interpreted that 1% increase in OLGR value, the GRDP value increases by 0.084%. The coefficient
for the variable log(GAF) is 3,190, it can be interpreted that 1% increase in GAF, the GRDP value rises 3,225%. The
coefficient value for the variable log(SAF) is -0.468. It can be interpreted that 1% increase in SAF value, the GRDP
value drops by 0.465%. The coefficient value for the variable log(PSF) is -0.26. It can be interpreted that 1% increase
in PSF value, then the GRDP value decreases by 0.258%.
Regression coefficients in the GWR model is vary by locations. When the coefficient value in a particular location
is positive, if the variable increases, economic performance will also increase or if the variable decreases, economic
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Author name / Procedia Computer Science 00 (2020) 000–000 7

performance will also decrease. If the coefficient value in a particular location is negative, it means that if the variable
increases, economic performance will decrease, and vice versa. R-squared values also vary for each location between
87.6% and 99.1%.
OLGR variable has a positive and significant effect on economic performance in Kab. Sijunjung, Kab. Lima Puluh
Kota, Kab. Dharmasraya, Kota Payakumbuh, Kab. Kuantan Singingi, Kab. Indragiri Hulu, Kab. Indragiri Hilir, Kab.
Pelalawan, Kab. Siak, Kab. Kampar, Kab. Kepulauan Meranti, Kota Pekan Baru, Kab. Muaro Jambi, Kab. Tanjung
Jabung Timur, Kab. Tanjung Jabung Barat, Kab. Tebo, Kab. Bungo, Kota Jambi, Kab. Musi Banyuasin, Kab.
Banyuasin, and Kota Palembang. OLGR variable gives a negative and significant effect on Kab. Labuhan Batu, Kab.
Labuhan Batu Selatan, and Kab. Labuhan Batu Utara. The remaining location does not hold a significant influence.
GAF variable gives a significant positive effect on economic performance in 100 regencies/municipalities. Even if
it is a negative influence, the GAF variable does not hold a significant effect. The SAF variable holds significant
negative influence towards economic performance in Kab. Aceh Barat Daya, Kab. Serdang Bedagai, Kota Tebing
Tinggi, and Kota Bengkulu. SAF variable influences economic performance positively and significantly in Kab.
Kepulauan Mentawai, Kab. Pesisir Selatan, Kab. Ogan Komering Ilir, Kab. Muara Enim, Kab. Musi Banyuasin, Kab.
Banyuasin, Kab. Ogan Ilir, Kab. Penukal Abab Lematang Ilir, Kota Palembang, and Kota Prabumulih. The remaining
locations has no significant effect on economic performance.
The FSP variable positively and significantly affected the economic performance in 87 locations in Sumatra while
the remaining 53 did not have a significant effect. The variable poverty rate (PR) negatively affects economic
performance in Kab. Batanghari, Kab. Muaro Jambi, Kab. Tanjung Jabung Timur, Kab. Tanjung Jabung Barat, Kota
Jambi, Kab. Ogan Komering Ilir, Kab. Musi Banyuasin, Kab. Banyuasin, Kab. Ogan Ilir, Kota Palembang, Kab.
Lampung Tengah, Kab. North Lampung, Kab. Tulang Bawang, Kab. Mesuji, and Kab. Tulang Bawang Barat. The
remaining locations do not significantly affect economic performance. HDI variable has a significant and negative
effect on economic performance in Kab. Banyuasin. The significant and positive effect of HDI is found in Kab. Aceh
Selatan, Kab. Aceh Tenggara, Kab. Aceh Timur, Kab. Aceh Tengah, Kab. Aceh Barat, Kab. Bireun, Kab. Aceh Utara,
Kab. Aceh Barat Daya, Kab. Gayo Lues, Kab. Aceh Tamiang, Kab. Nagan Raya, Kab. Bener Meriah, Kota Langsa,
Kota Lhokseumawe, Kota Subulussalam, Kab. Dairi, Kab. Karo, Kab. Langkat, Kab. Pakpak Bharat, and Kab.
Kepulauan Mentawai.
Partial parameter significance test for the GWR model concluded that each independent variable which are log
transformation of OLGR, GAF, SAF, and PSF, and the PR and HDI variables have at least one location where these
variables significantly influence the dependent variable of economic performance (GRDP) at that location. Evaluation
of global regression models and local models of Geographically Weighted Regression is carried out by comparing the
value of model evaluation using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and
Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). Table 3 is the results of model evaluation.

Table 3. Model Evaluation

Model RMSE MAPE AIC
OLS 0.4658 0.0391 199.3544
GWR 0.2022 0.0165 16.2003

Based on the results of model evaluation in Table 3. In this paper, some criteria were used. There are RMSE,
MAPE, and AIC value. All of these criteria use the error value of the model, then a good model is a model that has a
smaller error value. It can be seen in Table 3 that the error criteria of GWR model is smaller than the global regression
model using OLS. It can be concluded that the GWR model performs better than the global regression model using
OLS.

6. Conclusion

The Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) growth rate on the Sumatra Island is the second lowest in Indonesia.
While the GRDP is a measure of the economic performance of a region. Hence, it is important to evaluate the fiscal
decentralization factors that can improve economic performance. Based on the analysis of this research using Ordinary
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8 Author name / Procedia Computer Science 00 (2020) 000–000

Least Square (OLS) model, it showed that ordinary local government revenue (OLGR), general allocation fund (GAF),
profit share fund (PSF), and poverty rate (PR) have a significant effect on economic performance. While special
allocation fund (SAF) and human development index (HDI) are not significantly affect economic performance. Then
the assumptions of regression model are not met. There is autocorrelation between error and the error variance is not
constant. Based on spatial dependency test and spatial heterogeneity test showed that Gross Regional Domestic
Product (GRDP) of a location has a correlation with other nearby location. Therefore, the analysis of this data uses the
Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) method. Based on the results of GWR model, it showed that all of
independent variables are significantly affect economic performance. The parameter coefficient of each variable is
different at each location, so that each location has a different GWR model. The comparison between OLS model and
GWR model can be done using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and
Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). The results showed that GWR model has a smaller RMSE, MAPE and AIC
value than OLS model. So, it can be concluded in this case that GWR model is better than OLS model.

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