LECTURE 4-5

Travel Demand Modelling

Dr. Shahbaz Altaf

Assistant Professor
Department of Urban and Regional Planning
Travel Demand Modelling (TDM)
• When we do it?
 Providing new transportation system
 Improve existing system

• Why we do it?
 To determine number of trips that we will use existing/new transportation
system
• Application of strategies and policies to reduce travel demand
(specifically that of single occupancy vehicles), or to redistribute this
demand in space or in time.
• Also called Transportation Forecasting
Forecasting for Transportation
• Population
 Birth rates
 Death rates
 Migration rates
 Ages
 Often use forecasts from other agencies

• Economic
 Employment levels
 Forecasted in conjunction with population
 Employment
 Often use forecasts from other agencies

• Land Use
Why we Model?
1. What will our community look like in the future?
• How many people? (population forecasts)
• What will they do? (economic forecasts)
• Where will they do it? (land use pattern)
2. What are the travel patterns in the future?
• How many trips? (trip generation)
• Where will the trips go? (trip distribution)
• What modes will they use? (mode split)
• What routes will they take? (traffic assignment)
• What will be the effects of this travel? (impact analysis)
Measuring the Transportation / Land Use
System
A B
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i3
i1
i6
1
L
i4 2
i5 L
3
L
4
Administrative Divisions L Land Use

k
k k
T32 , T23 C Ia
k
k
Ib
D
Wab

l kl
l Id
l Wcd Ie
T6 Ic

Modal node
Traffic Intermodal node
Centroid Mode k
Traffic (Spatial Interactions) Mode l Transportation Network
The Four Step Model
Four-Stages Transportation / Land Use Model

Trip Generation

Trip Distribution • Land Use Data

Feedback

• Travel Generation Factors

• Friction of Distance Factors
• Calibration Factors
Modal Split • Transportation Networks

Traffic Assignment
General
structure
of a linked land
use and
transport model
 4-Step Planning Model
Land-Use Scenarios: eg. Transport Scenarios: Policy Scenarios: eg.
New developments eg. New transit line New parking scheme

Socio-economic data

Generation Started in the 50's

to build the Interstate

Distribution
Then,
predict and
Modal Split
accommodate
The basic approach
Assignment
remains unchanged
today
Trip Generation and Distribution
Modal and Route Choice
Origin and Destination
Data Inputs in TDM
Sequence of
decisions in the integrated land
use and transport model
Considerations for 4-Step Model

▪ Modeling Objective

▪ Area to be modelled

▪ Level of detail (scope)

▪ Availability and quality of data

▪ Transport purposes (how many?)

▪ Transport Modes (how many?)

The 4-Step Model Software(s)
• TransCAD
• Cube Voyager
When using mathematics for modeling, if
• Vissim one cannot interpret the outcome in
good, plain English, then paper must be
• Trips
burnt, and one should start again.
• Emme
~ Marshall, UK Economist/Mathematician
• QRSII
• Tranplan
• MinUTP
• Tp+
Data Inputs in TDM
Defining Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ’s)
Defining Study Area
• Estimate the number of trips
 Road/Highway (links)
 Current and expected “future”
 Land use: Residential, Commercial, Industrial
• Clearly define the study area (Boundaries)
 Spatial Scale: Urban, Rural, Peri-Urban, Regional, National
 Administrative Boundaries
 Impact: On Local street network, On intersections, On major highways
Travel Analysis Zones (TAZs)
• Simple representation of the geometry of the transportation systems
(usually major roads or transportation routes)
• Links: sections of roadway (or railway)
• Nodes: intersection of 2+ links
• Centroids: center of TAZs
• Centroid connectors: centroid to roadway network where trips load
onto the network
Travel Analysis Zones (TAZs)
• Homogenous urban activities (generate same types of trips)
 Residential
 Commercial
 Industrial
• May be as small as one city block or as large as 10 sq. miles
• Natural boundaries --- major roads, rivers, airport boundaries
Travel Analysis Zones (TAZs)
1. Trip Generation
Defining Trip Generation
• People engage in activities, these activities are the "purpose" of the trip.
• Major activities are home, work, shop, school, eating out, socializing, recreating, and
serving passengers (picking up and dropping off).
• There are numerous other activities that people engage on a less than daily or even
weekly basis, such as going to the doctor, banking, etc.
• Often less frequent categories are dropped and lumped into "Other".
• Every trip has two ends, an origin and a destination. Trips are categorized by purposes,
the activity undertaken at a destination location.
Defining Trip Generation
• A trip is usually defined in transport modelling as a single journey made by an
individual between two points by a specified mode of travel and for a defined purpose.
• The process of determining the number of trips begin or end in each TAZ’s.
• To develop relationship between trip end/production/attraction and land use (O-D).
• To predict future trip production under a particular land use.
• The number of trips arises in unit time, usually for a specified zonal land use , is called
the trip generation rate.
Types of Trips
• H2W - Home to work
• W2H - Work to home
• W2O - Work to other
• O2W - Other to work
• H2O - Home to other
• O2H - Other to home
• O2O - Other to other
• HBO - Home based other (includes H2O, O2H)
• HBW - Home based work (H2W, W2H)
• NHB - Non-home based (O2W, W2O, O2O)
Home Based Trips
• The total number of trips leaving or returning to homes in a zone may be described as a
function of:

• Home-End Trips are sometimes functions of:

• Housing Units
• Household Size
• Age
• Income
• Accessibility
• Vehicle Ownership
• Other Home-Based Elements
Work-Based
• At the work-end of work trips, the number of trips generated might be a
function as below:

• Jobs
• Area of Workspace
• Occupancy Rate
• Other Job-Related Elements
Shop-Based
• Similarly shopping trips depend on a number of factors:

• Shop-End Trips are sometimes functions of:

• Number of Retail Workers

• Type of Retail Available

• Area of Retail Available

• Location

• Competition

• Other Retail-Related Elements

Trips
10

40
21

00

30
Trips
10
School
Office
40 HBS
(Bus) 21
HBW
(Auto)
Home-A 00
NHBO
HBO
(Auto)
(Bus) 30

Recreation Home-B
Calibrating Trip Generation
 Trip Making
➢A function of three basic factors
▪ Land use pattern, development in the area.
▪ Socio economic characteristics of trip making population/ home.
▪ Nature and capabilities of transportation systems.
➢These independent variables keep changing with time and
geographical locations
➢Once present nature is understood future can be predicted or
assessed.
Factors Influencing Trip Making
Other Factors
▪Age group
▪Blue and white collars
▪Urbanization
▪Female working
▪Distance from central area
▪System quality
Zonal-Based vs Household-Based Models
Zonal based (Aggregate) Household based
➢ Zones be accurately delineated.
(Disaggregate)
➢ Zones may be larger
➢ Smaller zones.
➢ Household attributes
➢ Zonal attributes
▪ Family income
▪ Population Average income
▪ Family members
▪ Average vehicle ownership
▪ Vehicles
▪ Accuracy affected
➢ More accurate
➢ Sample survey expanded.
➢ Now even individual based
➢ Leads to ‘Zonal total trip ends”
➢ Sample survey expanded.

➢ Different house groups combined to

make ‘Zonal total trip ends”
Household Based
▪ Trips based on “households” rather than individual

▪ Individual too complex

▪ Theory assumes households with similar characteristics have similar trip

making characteristics

▪ However,
▪ Concept of what constitutes a “household”
▪ Changed dramatically outside Pakistan
▪ What in Pakistan?
Productions and Attractions

Zone I Zone J
O D

D O

OD is in terms of direction & PA is in OD easy to collect & PA easy to predict

terms of land use in future
Calibrating Trip Generation
• Attraction Forecast – function of
 Number and types of retail facilities
 Number of employees
 Land use

• Production Forecast – function of

 Car ownership
 Income
 Population (employment characteristics)
Measuring Trip Generation
Forecasting Trip Generation
➢Modelling process is difficult
▪Complex
▪Mutual dependence
▪Variability
➢Methods
▪Trip Rate Analysis
▪Category (Cross Classification) Analysis
▪Regression Analysis
Trip-Rate Analysis
• Example
2. Cross-classification technique
• An extension of trip rate models

• Can be calibrated as zonal based but normally used as

disaggregate models
• 3-4 variables, highly correlated with trip making are
selected, broken down to three or more discrete levels
 Cross-classification (category analysis)

Situation: Zone 1 characteristics are

Households Income level
Household size <10,000 10,000 to 30,000 >30,000
1 10 100 50
2 10 200 50
3+ 30 100 50

Home based work (HBW) trip production data

HBW trip rate Income level

Household size <10,000 10,000 to 30,000 >30,000
1 1.5 2.5 2.5
2 2.5 4 5
3+ 3 5 7
Thank You!

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