FOUR STEP MODEL

TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING (CE123) ENGR. JOMAR S. RAMOS

TRANSPORTATIONS SYSTEM ANALYSIS

Transportation System – defined as all elements of

transportation structure and services.

Activity System – essentially everything else (the spatial

distribution of land use and the demographic and/or economic
activity that occurs in those land uses)
 THE STUDY AREA
The area within the cordon is composed 10
of Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) and is
subject to explicit modeling and analysis.
9 4

Zoning System is a way of aggregating 3

trips into manageable chunks for
1
modeling purposes. 11
5
CBD
Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) is basic unit
of zoning system; origins and 2

destinations. 7

6
8
12
The four step model is the primary tool for forecasting
future demand and performance of a transportation system,
typically defined at a regional or sub-regional scale.
 • Travel Demand refers to
person-trips and goods
movement generated by and
attracted to a site depending
TRAVEL DEMAND
•Person Trip Attributes:
–Trip Purpose
–Time Of The Day Of The Trip
–Trip Origin

on type of development •Trip Destination

• Travel Demand is expressed –Travel Mode
either as Person Trips or –Travel Route
Commodity Trips –Trip Frequency
• Travel Demand may be •Commodity Trips Attributes:
realized (as volume) or –Handling
suppressed –Volume
• Travel Demand Is considered –Packaging
as Derived Demand –Storage
–Weight
TRAVEL VOLUME
• Person-trips or goods movement
become occupancy or usage of transport
modes

• Usage becomes traffic loaded on to the

transportation network
TRAVEL DEMAND ANALYSIS k
i j
Qik
Qij
i j
Pi Aj

Trip Generation Trip Distribution

Qijm
Qijm
p
CAR
i BUS j
SUBWAY
i j

Modal Choice Network Assignment

(Trip Assignment)
 Traffic Volumes

Supply Demand
Road Network Traffic Zones

Nodes Centroids
Centroid Connectors
Links Traffic Zones

Demographic Employment
Information Information External Stations
 CLASSICAL FOUR STEP MODEL

Future
Base-Year Zone Planning
Data Networks Data

Database
How many person trips?

TRIP GENERATION Household location

Feedback

Where are they going?

TRIP DISTRIBUTION Employment location

What mode are they using?

MODAL SPLIT

Output
4 Iterations

What route will they take?

Economic
TRIP ASSIGNMENT forecast
Friction of
distance

Evaluation
 Traffic Traffic
Zones Zones

Population

Household
Trip Attractors Producer of Trips
Employment

TRIP GENERATION
 Traffic
Zones

TRIP DISTRIBUTION
Recreational Area Church

Traffic
Zones

Schools Office

MODE CHOICE
Recreational Area Church

Traffic
Zones

Schools
Office

TRIP ASSIGNMENT
 DATA
Household Travel Surveys:

1. Household and person-level socio-economic data (typically

including income and the number of household members,
workers, and cars);
2. Activity-travel data (typically including for each activity
performed over a 24-hr period activity type, location, start
time, duration, and, if travel was involved, mode, departure
time, and arrival time; and
3. 3. Household vehicle data
 TRIP GENERATION

ENGINEERING MECHANICS - STATICS (MEC30) ENGR. JOMAR S. RAMOS

Trip is a one way movement from a point of origin to a point of
destination.

CLASSIFICATION OF TRIPS:

• By Purpose (work, school, shop, others)

• By Time of Day (a.m., p.m., peak, off-peak)
• By Person Type (income, car ownership, family size,
accessibility, etc.)
TRIP GENERATION

The objective of this first stage of the FSM process is to define the magnitude of total
daily travel in the model system, at the household and zonal level, for various trip
purposes (activities).

This first stage also explicitly translates the FSM from being an activity based to being
trip based, and simultaneously serves each trip into a production and attraction,
effectively preventing network performance measures from influencing the frequency
of travel.
ASSUMPTION

The relationships developed for the model remain the same for the future
and so if land-use and socio-economic factors can be predicted, future trips
can be estimated for any proposed transport system.

THREE DIFFERENT TRIP PURPOSES

1. Home-based work trips (HBW)

2. Home-based other (or non-work) trips (HBO)
3. Non-home-based trips (NHB)
Factors Affecting Trip Generation

• Personal Trip Production - Income, car ownership,

household structure, family size, value of land, residential
density and accessibility.

• Personal Trip Attraction - Roofed space available for

industrial, commercial and other services; zonal employment;
and accessibility measure.

• Freight Trip Production and Attraction - Number of

employees, amount of sales, roofed area of firm, total area of
firm.
A car available trip is any trip where the trip maker has
the choice of travelling by car or an alternative mode

A non-car-available trip is any trip where the trip maker

does not have travelling by car as part of their choice
Means of performing trip generation:

1. Allocate trips to transport modes before the

distribution of trips between traffic zones (trip ends);

2. The trips may be distributed between the zones before

the decision is made regarding the mode of travel.
 Total Person Trips
= S (Floor Area i x Trip Rates i)
where i = Land Use Classification

Land Use Trip Rates

Classification Production Attraction Unit

Office 0.0027 0.0176 trips / sq.m. of GFA

Commercial 0.0576 0.0735 trips / sq.m. of GFA

Hotel 2.00 2.55 trips / hotel room

Residential 2.42 1.52 trips / dwelling unit

Mixed Use 0.0172 0.0243 trips / sq.m. of GFA

 Trip Generation Analysis
Three Major Techniques

1. Cross-Classification Analysis

2. Multiple Regression Analysis

3. Experience Based Analysis

Trip Generation Equations

Dependent variable = no. of trips generated per person

per household for different trip purposes

Independent variables = land use and socio-economic

factors which are considered to influence trip making
Specifying Models :
Specifying Models :
Specifying Models :
Zonal least squares regression analysis:

The dependent variable (the number of trip ends) is related to

the independent characteristics which can be measured.

The equation developed is typically of the form:

Where: Y is the dependent variable

b, are the values obtained by the regression analysis
X are the independent variables
Assumptions

1. All independent variables are independent of each other

2. All independent variables are normally distributed
3. The independent variables are continuous
A typical regression equation:

Y8 = 0.0649 X1 – 0.0034 X3 + 0.0066 X4 + 0.9489 Y1

Where: Y8 = total trips per household / 24hr where the

head of the household is a junior manual worker
X1 = family size
X3 = residential density
X4 = total family income
Y1= cars/household
Linear Regression:
Y = AX + B
Sample Problems:
A simple linear regression model is estimated for shopping-trip generation during a
shopping-trip peak hour (e.g. Saturday afternoon). The model is:

Number of peak-hour vehicle-based shopping trips per-household = 0.12+0.09(HH

size) + 0.011 (annual HH income in €000s) – 0.15 (retail employment in HH
neighborhood – in 100’s)

A particular HH has 6 members and annual income of €50,000. they live in a

neighborhood with 450 retail employees.

They move to a new home in a neighborhood with 150 retail

employees.

Calculate the predicted no. of vehicle based peak-hour shopping trips

the HH makes after the move.
Sample Problems:

A model for social/recreational trip generation in estimated, with data

collected during a major holiday, as:

Number of peak-hour vehicle-based social/recreational trips per HH =

0.04+0.018 (HH size) + 0.009 (annual HH income) + 0.16 (no. of
nonworking HH members)

If the family described in example 1 has one working member, how many
peak-hour social/recreational trips are generated?
Sample Problems:
A neighborhood has a retail employment of 205 and 700 HH that can be
categorized into 4 types, each type having the same characteristics as
follows:

There are 100 of type 1, 200 of type 2, 350 of type 3 and 50 of type 4.
Assuming for the purposes of the example that shopping, social and work
vehicle-based trips all peak at the same time, determine the total no. of
peak hour trips using the generation models described in examples 1 and 2.
Estimating Models :
Estimating Models :
Sample Problems:
Planners have estimated the following models for the AM Peak Hour

A. What are the number of person trips originating in and destined for each city?
B. Normalize the number of person trips so that the number of person trip origins = the number of
person trip destinations. Assume the model for person trip origins is more accurate.
Estimating Models :

Home- end
To estimate trip generation at the home end, a cross-
classification model can be used, this is basically
constructing a table where the rows and columns have
different attributes, and each cell in the table shows a
predicted number of trips, this is generally derived
directly from data.
Estimating Models :
Trip Production Model uses Cross-Classification and has the following
sub-models.

A. Income sub-model: reflects the distribution of households within

various income categories (e.g. high, medium and low).
B. Auto ownership sub-model: relates the household income to auto
ownership.
C. Trip production sub-model: establishes the relationship between the
trips made by each household and the independent variables.
D. Trip purpose sub-model: relates the trip purposes to income in such a
manner that the trip productions can be divided among various
purposes. These models are developed using origin-destination travel
surveys.
Estimating Models :

1. Aggregate models are usually based upon home

interview origin and destination data that has been
aggregated into zones; then the "average" zonal
productions and attractions are derived. 
2. Disaggregate approach is based on large samples of
household types and travel behaviors and uses data
directly. The disaggregate approach expresses non-
linear relationships and is more easily understood.
Estimating Models :

Total Home-Based-Non-Work Trip Rates

Persons per Household
Type of Area Vehicles per HH 1 2,3 4 5+
High Density 0 0.6 2.1 4.6 7.0
1 1.5 3.0 5.5 7.9
2+ 1.8 3.4 5.9 8.3
Low Density 0 1.0 2.5 5.0 7.4
1 1.9 3.5 6.0 8.4
2+ 2.3 3.9 6.4 9.0
Estimating Models :
Survey Base Year
Home- end Socio-economic, land use
And
Trip making

Estimated Calibrated
Target year
socio-economic, Model
Relating trip making
land use data to socio-economic
and land use data
Estimating Models :
Home- end
Number of Households in Target Year
Persons per Household
Type of Area Vehicles per HH 1 2,3 4 5+
High Density 0 100 200 100 100
1 200 300 200 100
2+ 100 200 100 200
Low Density 0 50 100 100 100
1 100 200 100 100
2+ 100 100 100 10
Estimating Models :
Home- end Survey Base Year
Socio-economic, land use And
Trip making

Estimated Calibrated
Target year Model Predicted
Relating trip making
socio-economic, to socio-economic
Target year
land use data and land use data No. of Trips
 Total Home-Based-Non-Work Trip Rates
Persons per Household
Type of Area Vehicles per HH 1 2,3 4 5+
High Density 0 0.6 2.1 4.6 7.0
1 1.5 3.0 5.5 7.9
2+ 1.8 3.4 5.9 8.3
Low Density 0 1.0 2.5 5.0 7.4
1 1.9 3.5 6.0 8.4
2+ 2.3 3.9 6.4 9.0

Number of Households in Target Year

Persons per Household
Type of Area Vehicles per HH 1 2,3 4 5+

High Density 0 100 200 100 100

1 200 300 200 100
2+ 100 200 100 200
Low Density 0 50 100 100 100
1 100 200 100 100
2+ 100 100 100 10
Estimating Models :
Home- end
Number of Trips in Target Year for Each HH Type
Persons per Household
Type of Vehicles per HH 1 2,3 4 5+
Area
High Density 0 60 420 460 700
1 300 900 1100 790
2+ 180 680 590 1660
Low Density 0 50 250 500 740
1 190 700 600 840
2+ 230 390 640 90

Number of Trips = trip rate*no. of HH = 0.6 * 100 = 60

Total trip = 13,080
Sample Problems: