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Global Political Outlook 2024: Major Election Wave, But Mostly Policy Continuity Likely
Introduction
Global Political Outlook 2024:Major Election Wave, But Mostly Policy Continuity
Likely
Key View
• The year 2024 will see elections held in an unusually high number of large or geopolitically significant economies compared to
previous years, but for the most part, we anticipate continuity in government of the ruling parties, and thus broad policy
continuity.
• Of greatest interest to international businesses, investors, and governments will be the US election, where the possibility that
former president Donald Trump will return to the presidency will likely raise concerns about shifts in US trade, taxation,
environmental, foreign and defence policies.
• Perhaps the second-most geopolitically sensitive election in 2024 will take place in Taiwan, China, where a potential third term
for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party would likely portend increased cross-straits tensions over the subsequent four years.
• The United Kingdom looks set to experience a change of government from the Conservatives to the centre-left Labour party,
which may entail increased public spending and friendlier relations with the EU.
Introduction
As we approach 2024, many countries and territories around the world are still experiencing elevated levels of discontent, due to
high living costs – notwithstanding an apparent peak in inflation in many places – and the ‘backlog’ of economic problems – such
as higher public debt – caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the effects of the Ukraine war. These problems will persist for several
more months at least. Moreover, this discontent will pervade campaigning for elections scheduled for 2024. Indeed, the coming
year year will see an unusually high number of elections in economically or geopolitically significant countries and
territories, the most notable of which is the United States. Although for the most part we see continuity of ruling parties in
the main elections in 2024, campaign periods nevertheless raise uncertainties for businesses and investors, as political leaders
announce bold new measures or increase their rhetoric to win votes. Meanwhile, voters in some countries will make their
discontent felt through public unrest, and in some cases, strike action.
NO
NOTTABLE ELE
ELECTIONS
CTIONS SCHEDULED FFOR
OR 2024
Geography Event Date Continuity Policy Implications STPRI
Of Govt/
Party?
Bangladesh Election (Legislative) 7 January 2024 Yes Policy continuity 59.4
Taiwan, China Election (Presidential & 13 January 2024 Yes Too uncertain 69.8
Legislative)
Pakistan Election (Legislative) 8 February 2024 Yes Policy continuity 38.5
Indonesia Election (Presidential & 14 February 2024 Too Policy continuity 69.4
Legislative) uncertain
Ir
Iran
an Election (Legislative) 1 March 2024 Yes Policy continuity 55.4
Russia Election (Presidential) 17 March 2024 Yes Policy continuity 45.2
Ukr
Ukraine
aine Election (Presidential) 31 March 2024 (TBC) Yes Policy continuity 35.8
South K
Kor
orea
ea Election (Legislative) 10 April 2024 Yes Too uncertain 78.8
India Election (Legislative) April-May 2024 Yes (weaker) Policy continuity 66.3
This commentary is published by BMI – A Fitch Solutions Company, and is not a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from BMI and independent
sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with BMI.
fitchsolutions.com/bmi 4
Geography Event Date Continuity Policy Implications STPRI

Of Govt/
Party?
South Africa Election (Presidential & May 2024 Yes (weaker) Policy continuity 60.7
Legislative)
Me
Mexic
xico
o Election (Presidential & 2 June 2024 Yes Policy continuity 61.3
Legislative)
EU Election (Legislative) 6-9 June 2024 Too Policy continuity N/A
uncertain
Venezuela Election (Presidential) H2 2024 Yes Policy continuity 42.1
Japan Selection (Internal Ruling Party) September 2024 Too Policy continuity 84.6
uncertain
United SStates
tates Election (Presidential & 5 November 2024 Too Too uncertain 67.7
Legislative) uncertain
Algeria Election (Presidential) December 2024 Yes Policy continuity 59.0
United Kingdom Election (Legislative) By January 2025 No Centre-left policy shift 77.7
Note: STPRI=Short-Term Political Risk Index; higher score denotes lower risk. Source: BMI
On the geopolitical front, the main immediate risk is an escalation and expansion of the Israel-Hamas war to a full-
blown regional conflict involving Iran. This would provide a further blow to the global economy by means of higher oil prices,
and thus higher inflation, which would be problematic for central banks and governments. Although the Israel-Hamas war is already
diverting Western governments’ attention away from Ukraine, the Russia-Ukraine war will continue, as Kyiv attempts to press ahead
with its counteroffensives in December 2023 and Q1 2024, against very robust Russian defences. All signs point to a continued
stalemate along frontlines, albeit one with a very high level of casualties. Meanwhile, we anticipate that the US will continue to focus
considerable attention on the Indo-Pacific region going into 2024, suggesting elevated tensions with Mainland China and North
Korea – indeed, the latter may well conduct a new nuclear test over the coming year, for the first time since 2017.
Israel-Hamas War: Conflict To Continue In Q1, With Considerable Escalation Risks
We anticipate that the Israel-Hamas conflict will continue into Q1 2024, following the ending of a week-long ceasefire (mainly to
conduct prisoner exchanges) on December 1, 2023. Israel has yet to achieve any of its stated war objectives, such as the
neutralisation of Hamas’ leadership and military capabilities, and will thus continue military operations until it achieves some form of
a victory. However, we do not believe that Israel will succeed in eliminating Hamas. Meanwhile, we reiterate our core view that most
of the fighting will be focused on Gaza (60.0% probability), although there will be some limited skirmishes in southern Lebanon and
the West Bank, and attacks on US assets in Syria and Iraq. At present, the likelihood of a miscalculation that could trigger a wider war
in the region is falling gradually, as allies of Israel (the US) and Hamas (Iran) remain proactive in avoiding a wider conflict.
Conflict Appears To Be Contained For Now

MENA - Conflict Escalation Scenarios
Source: BMI
At some stage in early 2024, the conflict will likely have either ended, or be significantly reduced in intensity. We believe that the
most likely resolution to the conflict will be a result of diplomatic efforts to lay the ground for the resolution of the broader
Palestinian issue and the reconstruction of Gaza. In the immediate post-war period, we would expect that responsibility for restoring
security in Gaza will be managed either by an international coalition (as proposed by the US) or by Israel. Although it will be
challenging to establish an international coalition that has broad Arab backing, we think that some Gulf Cooperation Council
countries might be willing and capable of fulfilling this role. Regardless of the military outcome, the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority
(PA) in the West Bank is currently in no position to govern the Gaza Strip. This is because of the PA’s fiscal challenges in the West
Bank, and a perceived legitimacy deficit of its current, highly unpopular leadership.
Israeli Security Presence Will Likely Continue In Post-War Period

Gaza Strip - Map Of IDF's Areas Of Operations
Note: IDF's areas of operations as of November 28 2023. Source: Israel Palestine Live Map, BMI
The coming year will be a transition period for the Palestinian territories, with extremely high uncertainty. If the ruling right-wing
coalition in Israel collapses in 2024 (as is our core view) and is replaced by a more centrist government, this could allow for a timelier
resolution of the Palestinian issue. Similarly, more clarity will emerge after the US presidential elections in November 2024. If Donald
Trump wins, we think he might adopt a different approach to the Palestinian issue that could eventually result in more sustainable
solutions and pave the way for the normalisaion of the ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
An alternative scenario would be one in which no diplomatic resolution to the conflict is achieved. Low intensity fighting would
continue between Israeli forces and Hamas in Gaza, and the territory would stay under occupation for a prolonged period. This
could prompt Israel to establish a more formal or longer-term presence in the Gaza Strip, potentially also jeopardising PA rule in the
West Bank. Without a resolution of the Palestinian issue, the risk of renewed armed conflict would remain high. Hamas remnants
would continue to pose a challenge to any prospective administration established in Gaza. Moreover, even if Hamas ceased to exist,
other Palestinian resistance groups would fill the void to take up armed struggle.
Russia-Ukraine War: Moving Towards A Long-Term Stalemate In 2024-2025
We now see the Russia-Ukraine war transitioning into a prolonged, generally static stalemate at some point between mid-2024 and
end-2025. We previously anticipated that high-intensity fighting could persist until as late as 2026. Ukraine’s latest counteroffensive
(June 2023-present) has failed to achieve significant results. The attritional impact on Ukrainian forces and equipment underscores
the difficulty of breaking through fortified frontlines. Comparatively, Ukraine’s highly successful Kharkiv offensive in 2022 faced a
Russian front that was sparsely defended across a vast area and built up over a shorter time frame. This dynamic echoes challenges
faced by Russia’s military in its attempts to envelop the town of Avdiivka (October 10-present). The development of the conflict over
the last six months suggests that the warring parties are reaching defensive equilibrium, with both sides finding themselves unable
to break through fortifications. This informs our view that the frontlines will settle into a static state within the next two years.
Russia Still Holds 18% Of Ukrainian Territory

Ukraine - Map Of Territorial Control
Note: Adapted from data by the Institute For The Study Of War (ISW). Source: ISW, BMI
We believe the Kremlin is preparing the Russian population for a long war while delaying another politically sensitive wave of
mobilisation until after the March 2024 presidential election, which will almost certainly be won by Vladimir Putin.
The outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war on October 7, 2023, is somewhat problematic for Ukraine, because it has diverted most
Western governments’ attention away from Eastern Europe towards MENA. In addition, US financing for Ukraine’s war efforts is likely
to come under greater scrutiny, as the campaign for the November 2024 US presidential election enters full swing in Q1 2024, and
as the US economy slows. American attitudes towards Ukraine remain split across party lines, with the isolationist wing of the
Republican party and Republican deficit hawks pushing for cuts to aid for Ukraine in Congress. However, there is no clear consensus
within the Republicans on foreign policy towards Russia, and many House Republicans remain firmly in favour of military and
financial support for Kyiv. We thus maintain our view that while modest cutbacks to US aid to Ukraine are a growing possibility, a
complete cut-off is highly unlikely.
Western Aid Could Eventually Wane

International Aid To Ukraine (USDbn)
Note: *refers to EU Commission and Council. Source: Kiel Institute For The World Economy (Jan. 2022-Jul. 2023), BMI
A victory by Donald Trump in the November 2024 election would increase the risk of extensive cutbacks to assistance for Ukraine.
Overall, we maintain our core scenario of a frozen conflict with a Korean-style demilitarised zone along the frontlines as the most
likely final outcome of the war.
Indo-Pacific: Geopolitical Tensions To Remain Elevated
We anticipate that geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific region will remain elevated going into 2024, notwithstanding some
positive steps to de-escalate Sino-US tensions during a summit between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in
San Francisco in mid-November 2023. Most notably, presidential and legislative elections in Taiwan, China in January 2024 (see
below) will set the direction for cross-strait relations, and by extension, US-China relations. Also from early 2024, we are likely to see
an increase in anti-China rhetoric by President Biden, former president Donald Trump, and other key US political leaders, as they
seek to demonstrate their tough national security credentials as the US presidential election campaign enters full swing.
Increasingly critical US rhetoric would be viewed negatively by Chinese policy-makers, while the heated rhetorical climate will make
it harder for the Biden administration to act in a conciliatory manner towards Beijing without being labelled ‘soft on China’.
On the whole, US-China relations will remain in a ‘holding pattern’, as Beijing awaits the outcome of the US election. A potential
return of Donald Trump to the presidency offers both risks and opportunities for Mainland China. The main risk is an increase in
stridently anti-China rhetoric and a revival of confrontational trade policies in 2025, after these were mostly put on hold with the
‘Phase One’ trade deal in January 2020. However, Trump’s critical and sometimes confrontational approaches to US allies during his
presidency (2017-2021) suggest that he could strain US alliances once again if he returns. This would be geopolitically
advantageous for Beijing, because it would weaken the notion of Western unity vis-à-vis China.
US Strengthening Ties With Regional Allies

Indo-Pacific Region – Geopolitical Alignments
Note: May include territories, special administrative regions, provinces and autonomous regions. Alignment may be formal or informal. Template image: d-maps.com. Source:
BMI
Furthermore, we also see scope for an increase in tensions on the Korean Peninsula, as North Korea presses ahead with its
development of new missiles, potentially emboldened by its closer relationship with Russia following the September 2023 summit
between its leader Kim Jong Un and President Vladimir Putin. Although the full extent of their cooperation remains secret,
Pyongyang and Moscow share considerable geopolitical interests and have much to offer each other. However, the strengthened
alliance between the US, South Korea, and Japan will serve as an effective counterbalance.
Outlooks For Major Elections In 2024
Taiwan, China: Election To Have Major Impact On Cross-Strait Relations
Election Outlook
• Vice-President William Lai Ching-te of the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is well-positioned to win the January 13,
2024 presidential elections after the conservative main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party and centrist Taiwan People’s Party
(TPP) failed to nominate a joint candidate. A fourth candidate, Terry Gou, has dropped out of the race.
• Nevertheless, polls have narrowed in November, with one poll showing Ko Wen-je of the TPP overtaking Lai. A victory with less
than 50% support could weaken the eventual winner’s mandate, limiting his room for manoeuvre.
Election Becoming More Unpredictable

Taiwan, China - Support For Presidential Candidates (%)
Source: Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation, BMI
Implications
• If the independence-leaning DPP wins the presidency for an unprecedented third consecutive four-year term, Mainland China
would likely step up political and economic pressure on Taiwan, China over the coming years.
• China might adopt increasingly assertive tactics, such as more frequent or larger-scale military posturing near or around Taiwan.
However, we believe that a full-scale invasion of Taiwan is unlikely for foreseeable future, due to the wide range of risks involved.
• By contrast, an opposition victory could at the very least prevent cross-strait tensions from rising further, and could portend an
improvement in relations after years or rising tensions. This would also be beneficial for US-China relations.
• Overall, US President Joe Biden and future US leaders are likely to continue more active diplomatic, economic and military
interactions with Taiwan. Aside from its geopolitical significance to the US’s Pacific naval strategy, Taiwan’s importance stems
from its centrality to global semiconductor industry (accounting for around 60% of global revenues).
Indonesia: Prabowo Leading The Polls, Portending Broad Continuity
Election Outlook
• Of the three main presidential candidates, Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto in November 2023 widened his support to
around 40%, well ahead of his main rival, former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo, who is backed by the ruling Democratic
Party of Struggle (PDI-P), and who was on around 28% support. Former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan was trailing in third
place with his support in the low 20s.
• However, there is still time for polls to shift before the February 14, 2024 elections, and if none of the candidates wins a majority,
the top two would go to a runoff vote, which polls suggest Prabowo would win.
Prabowo Strengthening His Lead

Indonesia - Support For Presidential Candidates (%)
Source: Indikator Politik Indonesia, BMI
• The direction of Indonesian policymaking would remain broadly unchanged under a Prabowo government, given his affiliations
with outgoing President Joko Widodo (Jokowi). Indeed, Prabowo’s vice-presidential running mate is Jokowi’s eldest son, Gibran
Rakabuming Raka. This has led to speculation that Jokowi could retain political influence after leaving the presidency.
• Indonesia would remain welcoming towards foreign investment, but the government’s penchant for commodity protectionism
would also likely persist.
• There is a risk of Indonesia backsliding on democratic reforms under Prabowo. He has previously argued that Indonesia would be
better off if political power were more centralised. Any effort to re-centralise authority could be met with resistance from the
opposition parties and Indonesia’s regions.
India: BJP Victory Could Boost Medium-Term Growth Outlook
Election Outlook
• Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s conservative Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) looks on track towards securing a third consecutive
term at the general elections in April-May 2024.
• Modi still remains very popular with an approval rating of around 70%, although his BJP party-led National Democratic Alliance’s
support is considerably lower at around 43%. The main opposition India National Congress-led INDIA alliance is polling around
39% support.
• State elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Rajasthan, and Telangana in November 2023 – the results of which
were still pending – may provide further indications of the BJP's support.
BJP-Led NDA Has The Advantage

India - 2024 Election Vote And Seat Projections
Source: India TV-CNX Poll (October 2023), BMI
Implications
• A victory by the BJP would allow the government to continue pushing through with several key policies to the benefit of long-
term economic growth.
• This includes a further easing in foreign investment restrictions, a continued focus on infrastructure development and tax
reforms.
• That said, there has yet to be major progress in easing India’s onerous land and labour market regulations, which are a key
impediment to doing business in the country.
• Overall, we continue to expect India to outperform other major economies and become a more significant destination for
foreign direct investment over the coming decade, as multinational firms seek to diversify their operations away from Mainland
China.
South Africa: ANC At Risk Of Losing Majority In 2024 Election
Election Outlook
• The ruling African National Congress (ANC) will likely win a slim majority or will form a coalition with several smaller parties
following the elections that are expected to be held around May 2024.
• That said, the opposition Multiparty Charter (formed in August 2023) poses a key risk to our election view. The coalition is formed
of eight parties: Democratic Alliance (DA), Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), ActionSA, Freedom Front Plus, United Independent
Movement, Independent SA National Civic Organisation, the Spectrum National Party and the African Christian Democratic Party.
Tough 2024 Election Ahead For The ANC

South Africa – African National Congress's Vote Share, % (LHC); Voting Intentions, % Of Total Respondents (RHC)
Source: Electoral Commission of South Africa, Ipsos, Afrobarometer, South Africa Institute of Race Relations, Intellidex, Rivonia Circle, Brenthurst Foundation, Social Research
Foundation, BMI
Implications
• While a slim ANC majority would leave policy content largely unchanged, an alliance with smaller parties would likely slow the
policy-making process, given the need for cross-party cooperation – although policy would still be determined by the ANC.
• The ANC has held a parliamentary majority since the end of apartheid in 1994, so a drop below 50% support would signal
increasing frustration at the perceived economic mismanagement by the ANC, high unemployment, and rolling blackouts.
• Should the ANC need another large party to achieve a parliamentary majority, it would likely turn to the radical Economic
Freedom Fighters, which would lead to more populist policies.
• The likely decline in ANC votes in the 2024 election is in line with our long-term core view that the ANC will gradually lose its
political dominance over the coming decade.
Mexico: Sheinbaum Appears Likely To Succeed AMLO In 2024
Election Outlook
• Former Mexico City head of government Claudia Sheinbaum of the incumbent Morena party is the favourite in opinion polls to
win Mexico’s June 2024 presidential election, succeeding Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO).
• Sheinbaum will face Xóchitl Gálvez of the opposition Strength and Heart for Mexico (FCM) coalition and Samuel García of the
smaller Citizens’ Movement party.
Sheinbaum Holds A Commanding Lead

Mexico - Presidential Voting Intentions, %
Source: National Polling Agencies, BMI
Implications
• A Sheinbaum win would lead to broad policy continuity, as she is close to AMLO (who will likely retain informal influence after
leaving office).
• That said, Sheinbaum would likely govern with a more technocratic style, suggesting she would improve the investment climate.
• She has also emphasised green initiatives, but also supports AMLO’s attempts to prop up state-owned oil company Pemex.
• Sheinbaum would follow AMLO in prioritising infrastructure projects and increasing social spending, while cutting funding for
independent institutions reliant on central government transfers.
United States: Considerable Uncertainty Surrounds Election Outcome
Election Outlook
• The 2024 election looks set to be a rematch between President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump, but Trump’s legal
difficulties and Biden’s age (he will be 82 in November 2024) mean that other candidates may yet be the nominees.
• California governor Gavin Newsom (Democratic) and Florida governor Ron DeSantis (Republican) or former UN Ambassador
Nikki Haley (Republican) would appear to be the most realistic alternative candidates, if neither Biden nor Trump is available to
run for president.
• At this stage, we believe that it is far too early to predict the winner, though polling suggests that Trump’s electability issues may
be fading at the margin.
• Overall, the election outcome could be tight, and there is a risk of another disputed result, raising the possibility of violence
comparable to January 6, 2021 Capitol riots.
Trump Edges Ahead Of Biden In The Betting Markets

US - 2024 Presidential Election - Probability Of Winning (0.0-1.0)
Sources: PredictIt, Macrobond, BMI
Implications
• A Biden/Democratic victory would likely see broad policy continuity, domestically and internationally. The latter would entail
continued multilateral cooperation via a strengthening of the US’s traditional alliances, for the purposes of counterbalancing
Russia and China.
• A Trump/Republican victory would likely see attempts to return to ‘America First’ unilateralist economic and foreign policies. This
could increase strains between the US and its traditional allies, especially if Trump criticises them over perceived unfair trade
practices or overreliance on the US for their defence. Trump’s reputation for unpredictability and brinkmanship could also prove
destabilising, internationally.
• There is bipartisan consensus for assertive stances towards China, so Washington-Beijing relations would remain tense
regardless of who wins the 2024 election.
United Kingdom: Opposition Well Positioned To Prevail
Election Outlook
• The centre-left main opposition Labour Party under Keir Starmer is maintaining a sizeable lead over Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s
governing Conservative Party in opinion polls, suggesting that Labour will form the next government following elections that
must be held by January 2025.
• The Conservatives’ vote share failed to benefit from an attempt to shift rightwards on identity issues such as migration and
environmental policy. The subsequent November 13, 2023 cabinet reshuffle appeared to mark a pivot back to the centre for the
party.
• Although the next election will be much more focused on economic issues than in 2019 (which was largely fought over the then
unresolved issue of Brexit), and with the Conservatives pivoting to the centre, immigration policy and social issues will still feature
prominently.
• Overall, we caution that the polls could narrow considerably between now and election day, meaning that a ‘hung’ parliament or
Conservative victory are still within the realm of possibility.
Labour Appears Most Likely To Form Next Government

UK - Opinion Polling For Next General Election, %
Source: Various National Pollsters, BMI
Implications
• A Labour-led government would likely entail a more supportive fiscal backdrop; however, the differences between the present
and post-election period would not be major.
• The Conservatives have begun to lean towards their free market roots (tax and expenditure cuts) in the run-up to the election,
but this is somewhat of a departure from recent years, and fiscal drag has actually meant that the tax burden has continued to
rise (the initial portion of income that is not subject to taxation has been kept steady, meaning inflation is drawing people into
higher tax bands). Labour has not yet confirmed its major fiscal policies.
• A Labour-led government would likely attempt to improve the UK’s relationship with the EU, which would be a boost for trade
and productivity. By contrast, a re-elected Conservative government may continue to loosen ties with the EU in favour of closer
ties with the US, Australia, India, and others, albeit with mixed success.
ELE
ELECTION
CTION TIMET
TIMETABLE
ABLE AND MAJOR POLITICAL EVENTS IN DE
DECEMBER
CEMBER 2023-2024
Geography/Organisation Election Type/ Date Ruling Party(ies)/Nominated Opposition
Event Candidate Party(ies)/Candidate(s)
NOVEMBER
COP28 Climate change 30 UAE to host event in Dubai
summit November-12
December 2023
DECEMBER
Venezuela Referendum 3 December Referendum on public attitudes
2023 towards Venezuela's territorial
claims in Guyana

Egypt Presidential 10-12 Abdel Fatah El Sisi Hazem Omar, Abdel-Sanad
December 2023 Yamama, Farid Zahran
Eur
uropean
opean Council Meeting 14-15
December 2023
Chile Referendum 17 December Referendum on new constitution
2023
Serbia Legislative and local 17 December Serbian Progressive Party (SNS)- Forward to Europe (PE), others
2023 led coalition
Ir
Iraq
aq Regional 18 December N/A N/A
2023
Democr
Democratic
atic R
Republic
epublic of the Presidential 20 December Felix Tshisekedi Martin Fayulu, Moise Katumbi,
Congo 2023 Delly Sesanga, Denis Mukwege
Legislative Union for Democracy and Social Miscellaneous opposition
Progress (UDPS) parties
2024
JANUARY
Bangladesh Legislative 7 January 2024 Awami League (AL) Bangladesh Nationalist Party
(BNP) (boycotting for now),
Jatiya Party
Bhutan Legislative (2nd 9 January 2024 Druk Nyamrup Tshogpa Druk Phuensum Tshogpa
round)
Taiwan, China Presidential 13 January 2024 William Lai (DPP) Hou Yu-ih (KMT), Ko Wen-je
(TPP), Terry Gou (Ind.)
Legislative Democratic Progressive Party Kuomintang, Taiwan People's
Party, others
United SStates
tates Primaries 15 January 2024 Iowa caucases held; first event in
primary campaign
Finland Presidential 28 January 2024 Alexander Stubb Pekka Haavisto, others
FEBRUARY
El Salv
Salvador
ador Presidential 4 February 2024 Nayib Bukele (Nuevas Ideas) Joel Sanchez (ARENA), Luis
Parada (NT), Manuel Flores
(FMLN), Javier Renderos (FS),
Marina Murillo (FPS)
Legislative Nuevas Ideas ARENA, FMLN, others
Pakistan Legislative 8 February 2024 Pakistan Muslim League (N), Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insfaf (PTI)
Pakistan People's Party, others
Indonesia Presidential 14 February Ganjar Pranowo (PDI-P) Prabowo Subianto (Gerindra),
2024 Anies Baswedan
(Independent), others
Legislative PDI-P-led bloc including Golkar, Democratic Party, Prosperous

Gerindra, others Justice Party
Belarus Legislative 25 February Pro-presidential majority bloc Various minor parties
2024
Senegal Presidential 25 February Amadou Ba Idrissa Seck, Aminata Touré,
2024 Mahammed Boun Abdallah
Dionne, Bassirou Diomaye Faye
MARCH
Ir
Iran
an Legislative 1 March 2024 Principalists Reformists
United SStates
tates Trial 4 March 2024 Trial of Donald Trump for
allegedly attempting to overturn
2020 presidential election set to
begin
United SStates
tates Primaries 5 March 2024 So-called 'Super Tuesday' -
largest number of states holding
primaries in single day
Por
ortugal
tugal Legislative 10 March 2024 Socialist Party (PS) Social Democratic Party (PSD),
Chega, others
Russia Presidential 17 March 2024 Vladimir Putin (TBC) TBA
United SStates
tates Trial 25 March 2024 Trial of Donald Trump for
allegedly falsifying business
records set to begin
Turkiy
urkiyee Local 31 March 2024 N/A N/A
Ukr
Ukraine
aine Presidential 31 March 2024 Volodymyr Zelenskyy TBA
(likely to be
postponed)
Nor
North
th K
Kor
orea
ea Legislative March 2024 Workers' Party of Korea N/A
APRIL
South K
Kor
orea
ea Legislative 10 April 2024 People Power Party Democratic Party, others
India Legislative April-May 2024 Bharatiya Janata Party-led bloc Indian National Congress-led
bloc
Slo
Slovvakia Presidential April 2024 TBA Ján Drgonec, Štefan Harabin,
Ivan Korčok, Ján Kubiš
MAY
United Kingdom (L
(London
ondon Mayoral 2 May 2024 N/A N/A
and Manchester)
Panama Presidential 5 May 2024 Jose Gabriel Carrizo (PRD) Ricardo Lombana (Another
Way Movement), Ricardo
Martinelli (Realizing Goals),
Martin Torrijos (Popular Party),
Romulo Roux (Democratic
Change), others

Legislative Democratic Revolutionary Party Democratic Change, others
(PRD)
Dominican R
Republic
epublic Presidential 19 May 2024 Luis Abinader (PRM) Abel Martinez (PLD), Leonel
Fernandez (FP)
Legislative Modern Revolutionary Party Partido de la Liberación
(PRM) Dominicana (PLD); Fuerza del
Pueblo (FP); Partido
Revolucionario Dominicano
(PRD)
United SStates
tates Trial 20 May 2024 Trial of Donald Trump for
classified documents case set to
begin
South Africa Legislative May 2024 African National Congress (ANC) Multi-Party Charter, Economic
Freedom Fighters, others
JUNE
Me
Mexic
xico
o Presidential 2 June 2024 Claudia Sheinbaum (Morena Xochitl Galvez (Strength and
Party-led 'Together We Make Heart for Mexico), Samuel
History' bloc) Garcia (Citizens' Movement)
Legislative Morena Party Broad Front, consisting of
National Action Party (PAN),
Institutional Revolutionary
Party (PR), and Party of the
Democratic Revolution (PRD)
Eur
uropean
opean Union Legislative 6-9 June 2024 N/A N/A
Belgium Legislative 9 June 2024 Multi-party coalition New Flemish Alliance (N-VA),
Vlaams Belang, others
G7 Summit 13-15 June Italy to host G7 Summit
2024
Mauritania Presidential June 2024 Mohamed Ould Ghazouani (TBA)
JULY
Venezuela Presidential Second half of Nicolas Maduro (PSUV) TBA
2024
NA
NATTO Summit 9-11 July 2024 Washington, DC, to host NATO
summit marking 75th
anniversary
United SStates
tates Republican Party 15-18 July 2024 Republican presidential
Convention candidate to be formally chosen
Olympic Games Sporting event 26 July-11 Paris to host XXXIII Olympiad
August 2024
Japan (T
(Toky
okyo)
o) Gubernatorial July 2024 Yuriko Koike (TBC) TBA
Cr
Croatia
oatia Legislative by July 2024 Croatian Democratic Union Social Democrats, others

(HDZ)-led bloc
Nor
North
th Mac
Macedonia
edonia Legislative by July 2024 Social Democratic Union of VMRO-DPMNE, others
Macedonia (SDSM)-led coalition
AUGUST
United SStates
tates Democratic Party 19-22 August Democratic presidential
Convention 2024 candidate to be formally chosen
Rwanda Presidential August 2024 Paul Kagame (RPF) TBA
Legislative Rwandan Patriotic Front TBA
Spain (Basque and Galicia) Regional legislative by August 2024 N/A N/A
SEPTEMBER
Germany (Br
(Brandenbur
andenburgg (22 Regional legislative September N/A N/A
Sep.), Sachsen (1 Sep.), 2024
Thuringen (Autumn))
Japan Party Leadership September PM Fumio Kishida to seek further N/A
2024 three-year term as Liberal
Democratic Party leader
Austria Legislative by September Austrian People's Party (OVP), Social Democratic Party (SPO),
2024 Greens Freedom Party (FPO), others
Sri Lank
Lankaa Presidential by September Ranil Wickremesinghe Maithripala Sirisena, Sajith
2024 Premadasa, others
Tunisia Presidential Autumn 2024 Kais Saied TBA
OCTOBER
NA
NATTO Secretary-General 1 October 2024 Jens Stoltenberg's term ends
Br
Brazil
azil Municipal 6 & 27 October N/A N/A
2024
Mo
Mozambique
zambique Presidential 9 October 2024 Celso Correia (TBC) TBA
Legislative Frelimo Renamo
Uruguay Presidential 27 October TBA (National Party) TBA
2024
Legislative National Party Frente Amplio (Broad Front),
Austr
Australia
alia (Capital TTerritor
erritoryy Regional legislative October 2024 N/A N/A
and Queensland)
Botswana Legislative October 2024 Botswana Democratic Party Umbrella for Democratic
(BWP) Change, Botswana Congress
Party, others
Canada (British Columbia, Regional legislative October 2024 N/A N/A
New Brunswick,
Sask
Saskatchewan)
atchewan)
Geor
Georgia
gia Legislative October 2024 Georgian Dream United National Movement,

others
Lithuania Legislative October 2024 Homeland Union-led coalition Farmers and Greens Union,
Union of Democrats For
Lithuania, others
BRICS Summit October 2024 Russia to host BRICS summit
NOVEMBER
Eur
uropean
opean Commission Leadership change 1 November European Commission
2024 president's term begins
United SStates
tates Presidential 5 November Joe Biden (Democratic Party) TBA (Republican Party)
2024
Legislative Democratic Party Republican Party
Puer
Puerto
to Ric
Ricoo (USA) Gubernatorial 5 November Pedro Pierluisi (Partido Nuevo Jenniffer Gonzalez-Colon
2024 Progresista (PNP)) (PNP); Juan Zaragoza Gomez
(PPD (Partido Popular
Democratico)) (PD (Proyecto
Dignidad))
Legislative N/A PNP, PPD, PD, VC (Victoria
Cuidad); Partido
Independentista
Puertorriqueno (PIP)
G20 Summit 18-19 Brazil to host G20 summit
November 2024
Moldo
Moldovva Presidential November 2024 Maia Sandu TBA
Romania Presidential November 2024 TBA TBA
Somalia (Somaliland only) Presidential November 2024 Muse Bihi Abdi (Kulmiye) (TBC) TBA
Jor
ordan
dan Legislative by November
2024
Mauritius Legislative by November Militant Socialist Movement Labour Party, Mauritian Militant
2024 Movement, Maurtian Social
Democratic Party, others
Namibia Presidential by November Hage Geingob (SWAPO) TBA
2024
Legislative SWAPO Popular Democratic
Movement, others
DECEMBER
Ghana Presidential 7 December Mahamudu Bawumia (TBC) (NPP) John Mahama (TBC) (NDC)
2024
Legislative New Patriotic Party National Democratic Congress
Algeria Presidential December 2024 Abdelmajid Tebboune (TBC) TBA
Cr
Croatia
oatia Presidential December 2024 Zoran Milovanovic (TBA) TBA

United Kingdom Legislative by January 2025 Conservative Party Labour Party, Liberal
Democrats, Scottish National
Party, others
N/A = not applicable or no clear party. TBA/TBC = to be announced/confirmed. Note: Election dates are subject to change at short notice. Highlighted denotes that event may
have significance for its wider region. Source: World media, BMI
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Global P

Geography Event Date Continuity Policy Implications STPRI

Israel-Hamas War: Conflict To Continue In Q1, With Considerable Escalation Risks

Conflict Appears To Be Contained For Now

Israeli Security Presence Will Likely Continue In Post-War Period

Russia-Ukraine War: Moving Towards A Long-Term Stalemate In 2024-2025

Russia Still Holds 18% Of Ukrainian Territory

Western Aid Could Eventually Wane

Indo-Pacific: Geopolitical Tensions To Remain Elevated

US Strengthening Ties With Regional Allies

Outlooks For Major Elections In 2024

Taiwan, China: Election To Have Major Impact On Cross-Strait Relations

Election Becoming More Unpredictable

Source: Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation, BMI

Indonesia: Prabowo Leading The Polls, Portending Broad Continuity

Prabowo Strengthening His Lead

Source: Indikator Politik Indonesia, BMI

India: BJP Victory Could Boost Medium-Term Growth Outlook

BJP-Led NDA Has The Advantage

Source: India TV-CNX Poll (October 2023), BMI

South Africa: ANC At Risk Of Losing Majority In 2024 Election

Tough 2024 Election Ahead For The ANC

Mexico: Sheinbaum Appears Likely To Succeed AMLO In 2024

Sheinbaum Holds A Commanding Lead

Source: National Polling Agencies, BMI

United States: Considerable Uncertainty Surrounds Election Outcome

Trump Edges Ahead Of Biden In The Betting Markets

Sources: PredictIt, Macrobond, BMI

United Kingdom: Opposition Well Positioned To Prevail

Labour Appears Most Likely To Form Next Government

Source: Various National Pollsters, BMI

Geography/Organisation Election Type/ Date Ruling Party(ies)/Nominated Opposition

Geography/Organisation Election Type/ Date Ruling Party(ies)/Nominated Opposition

Geography/Organisation Election Type/ Date Ruling Party(ies)/Nominated Opposition

Geography/Organisation Election Type/ Date Ruling Party(ies)/Nominated Opposition

Geography/Organisation Election Type/ Date Ruling Party(ies)/Nominated Opposition

Geography/Organisation Election Type/ Date Ruling Party(ies)/Nominated Opposition

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Copyright © 2024 Fitch Solutions Group Limited.

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