Internship Report

End of Russian’s Gas in Germany, Opportunities and Threats to reach

2050 Green Deal objectives.
Summer 2022, Telecom University of Paris

Intern: Davoud Shalforoushan,

M1 in Energy Science and Technology at Institut Polytechnique de Paris.

Supervisor: Professor Myriam Davidovici

Head of Department: Professor Didier DALMAZZONE

Summer 2022. Telecom University of Paris

Summary
• Russia's invasion on Ukraine's and the European Union's embargo on
Russia have created serious problems for the continent's energy
supply.
• 27% 40% 46%
Problems
• in the short term: is to find alternative suppliers
• In the medium and long term: energy transition towards less
carbonized fuels and how these new constraints will impact on the
energy mix.
• interfere with European Green Deal: towards limiting strongly CO2
emissions as to become carbon neutral in 2050.
• This is a shock as well as an opportunity.
• Objective: to provide multi-variables analysis to assess the threat or
opportunity levels and be able to provide for different realistic
scenario and their attractiveness.
 TheEuropean Union’s (EU) Green Deal

• Paris Agreement 2030 Target 2050 Green Deal

• 2030 target: reduces greenhouse gas emissions by 55 per cent
compared to 1990 at European level.
• 2050 Deal: climate neutrality.
• In fact, 2030 will be used as a medium-term document to implement
the 2050 document.

• €1 trillion
Implementation
Net emissions per head, direct and indirect
Current status
• none of the countries was able to reach the very high ranking
according to CPI (Commitment to Development Index).
New Crises, Russain’s war
• A problem that has messed up
• all the equations of the world.

• And the most important European industrial country (Germany) has

faced a big problem that we will deal with.
Germany’s Role in Green Deal 2050
• Germany aims to become greenhouse gas neutral by 2045. It has set
the preliminary targets of cutting emissions by at least 65 percent by
2030 compared to 1990 levels, and 88 percent by 2040.
Germany's national climate status
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION TRENDS IN GERMANY BY SECTOR 1990-2020 AND 2020-2030 TARGETS AS STATED IN THE CLIMATE ACTION LAW.
REF: UBA 2022.
• Germany will have to buy 22 million emissions allocations after failing
its 2020 climate targets under the EU's effort sharing scheme.
• a reduction of about 70 million tons of CO2 equivalents in 2020.
• In 2019, emissions fell slightly less, about 6 percent year on year. It
has taken Germany 30 years to cut CO2 equivalents by 510 million
tons. This leaves 10 years for the task of cutting emissions by a
further 301 million tons to reach the new 2030 target.
Energy transition target
Renewables targets
• More than 46 percent of the country's power consumption
(340.47bcm) was covered by renewables in 2020.
• The government is now aiming for 65 percent by 2030 in the
reformed renewables law.
Natural Gas
• Natural Gas supplies 15.3% of Germany's energy in 2021.
• Consumption:
• The heat market is still by
• far the most important
• market for natural gas
Solutions

• Short-Term Solutions

• Medium-term Solutions
Short-Term Solutions
• Coal: Germany had plans to phase out coal consumption by 2030 due
to its high emissions, they are likely to delay this process and they
may bring back up to 8.84 bcm for two years. Coal is is much more
carbon-intensive than gas.
• Nuclear: Just three out of 17 reactors are working which was going
to be off this year. Equals to
• 3.317 bcm.
• Finding other gas exporter:
Germany is still looking for new ways
• France will come to Germany's aid to supply gas.
• By 2.05 bcm. (=2% of German consumption)

• DEVELOPMENT
• OF STORAGE LEVELS
• IN GERMANY.
• Increasing the prices to decrease the usage: Germany launched the
"alert phase" of its gas emergency plan in response to Russian supply
cuts, but did not allow utilities to pass on rising energy costs to
customers in Europe's largest economy.
Mid-Term solutions
• LNG Terminals: About 20 bcm of the shortage will be compensated.
• Green hydrogen: Based on electrolysis of water. By adding carbon
dioxide (CO2) from the air, the hydrogen can then be turned into
climate-neutral synthetic liquid fuel. 7.4 bcm.
 Mid-Term solutions
• SPEEDING THE RENEWABLE ENERGIES UP: Germany aims to fulfil all
its electricity needs with supplies from renewable sources by 2035.

• 20 GW by 2028 = Increasing 10 gigawatts (GW) by 2027

• 15 GW which equals to 13.26 bcm increases 8 GW equals to 7.07 bcm
• 22.8% Efficiency 45% Efficiency
Mid-Term solutions
• By 2035,Germany's onshore wind energy capacity should double to
up to 110 GW (97.24 bcm and 43.758 bcm in real), offshore wind
energy should reach 30 GW (26.52 bcm equals to 11.934 bcm in real)
and solar energy would more than triple to 200 GW (176.8 bcm and
40.31bcm in real).

• INCREASING THE CAPACITY OF RESERVOIRS : Germany has 24 bcm of

underground caverns of gas storage .The country will also increase the
volume of natural gas in its storage facilities by 2 billion cubic metres
(bcm)
Mid-Term solutions
• Increasing Natural gas production: Germany produced 4.5 bcm in
2021. Around one billion cubic meters of gas could be produced
annually from the natural gas field in the German-Dutch border area.
•
Mid-Term solutions
• Home insulation: Investing in building renovation can reduce the use
of fossil fuels for heating in buildings, reaching 44% in gas savings,
save 45% of final energy demand and substantially contribute to
securing the EU’s energy needs.
Conclusion
• the problem of Russian gas shortage for Germany will remain until
2025, and short-term solutions should be used for it.
20

10

0
Quantity of Energy (bcm)

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60
Year

Lack of Russian Gas
Increase in Norwegian Gas Import
Pipe Line From Nord Sea
On-Shore Wind Power
Total Change in resources(YoY)
Change in Temporary Use of Coal Change in Setting up Nucelar Power Plant
Increase of Home Insulation increase LNG terminal
Hydrogen Fuel Increase in Reservoirs
Off-Shore Wind Power Increse in Solar Cells Installment
consumption
Predicted Gas consumption vs Gas supply.
Year Average
15
2022 86.25
10 2023 84.64

5
2024 83.02
Quantity of Energy (bcm)

2025 81.41
0
2026 78.73
-5
2027 77.22
-10 2028 75.70

-15 2029 74.19

2030 72.68
-20
2035 61.52
-25
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Decrease forecasting in NG consumption
4 1,61 1,62 1,61 2,68 1,51 1,52 1,51 1,51
(YoY)
Total Change in NG resources (YoY) -20,65 -16,87 -11,77 10,09 0,1 5,13 1,95 1,52 4,59
The final Lack or excess of resources -16,65 -15,26 -10,15 11,7 2,78 6,64 3,47 3,03 6,1
Year
Cost Comparison
• THE COST OF ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION IN DIFFERENT WAYS :
Resource Average Cost per MWh ($)

Coal 74

Nuclear 150.5

Norwegian Gas Import 167

Home Insulation 717.3 (3.25 $ per ft2)

LNG terminal 118.4

Nord Sea Pipe Line 124.5

Hydrogen Fuel 238

Increase of Reservoirs - (162000 $ per bcm)

On-shore wind power 42.5

Off-shore wind power 86

Solar installment 40
Carbon neutrality
• according to current scientific estimates in the Federal Government’s
2021 projection report, only cut emissions by around 50 percent by
2030. So, we are at risk of missing the2030 target by 15 percentage
points.
• According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, natural gas
emits almost 50% less CO2 than coal.
• Unlike fossil fuel-fired power plants, nuclear reactors do not produce
air pollution or carbon dioxide while operating.
• [(8.84*1.5) + (3.317*0)]/12.157= 1.09 ˜ 1
• This amount of using coal and nuclear energy instead of gas does not
make the prediction of 2021 wrong compared to 2022.
DEVELOPMENT OF GREENHOUSE GAS IN GERMANY. REF: FEDERAL ENVIRONMENT AGENCY, CLIMATE CHANGE ACT.
FORECAST SECTORAL OVERSHOOT OF ANNUAL CLIMATE TARGETS IN LINE WITH CLIMATE CHANGE ACT.
2035…
• . FINAL COMPARISON BETWEEN NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION AND RESOURCES FROM 2030 TO
2035 IN GERMANY
120

100
Quantity of Energy (bcm)

80

60

40

20

0
2030 2035
Decrease forecasting in NG consumption (YoY) 1,51 11,16
Total Change in NG resources 4,59 96
The final Lack or excess of resources 6,1 107,16
Year
. PREDICTION OF CHANGES IN THE ALTERNATIVES OF
IMPORTED RUSSIAN GAS TO GERMANY (2030-2035)
120

100
Quantity of Energy (bcm)

80

60

40

20

0
2030 2035
Increase of Home Insulation 1,52 0
Hyrogen Fuel 3,07 0
On-shore wind power 0 43,76
Off-shore wind power 0 11,93
Increase in Solar cells instalment 0 40,31
Total Change in resources 4,59 96
Year

Increase of Home Insulation Hyrogen Fuel On-shore wind power Off-shore wind power Increase in Solar cells instalment Total Change in resources
• Therefore, although according to the existing conditions, it seems
unlikely to reach the climate goals by 2030, but if there is no change
and new crisis for Germany, the conditions will be different for this
country from 2035.