A MOOC of the Institut Pasteur

Modeling of Infectious Diseases

 Chapter 3 –Session 1

The SIR model: formulation, analysis, discussion

Romulus BREBAN
Researcher

Institut Pasteur

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 Original paper on SIR (1927)

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 Original paper on SIR (1927)

Fit of SIR model to epidemic data of

the plague in Bombay
Kermack & McKendrick (1927)

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 Original equations of the SIR model

x-susceptibles (S);
y-infected (I);
z-recovered (R);

k-infectiousness (b);
l-recovery rate (g);

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 SIR conceptual model

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 SIR conceptual model

Disease progression model

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 SIR conceptual model

Mixing model

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 Mathematical realization of the flow diagram

x→S;
y→I;
z→R;

k→β
(Infectiousness);
l →γ
(Recovery rate);

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 Mathematical realization of the flow diagram
Mixing and
transmission
x→S;
y→I;
z→R;

k→β
(Infectiousness);
l →γ
(Recovery rate);

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 Mathematical realization of the flow diagram

x→S;
y→I;
z→R;

k→β
Disease
progression
(Infectiousness);
l →γ
(Recovery rate);

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 Mathematical realization of the flow diagram

Population dynamics is
unspecified in absence of
disease:

1. The total number of

individuals is fixed, yet
unspecified;
2. Births and deaths from
𝑑𝑁 disease unrelated causes
N=S+I+R =0 are ignored;
𝑑𝑡

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 R0 for the original SIR model.

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 R0 for the original SIR model.

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 R0 for the original SIR model.

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