2.

An industrial chemical that will retard the spread of fire in paint has been
developed. The local sales representative has estimated, from past experience, that
48% of the sales calls will result in an order.

Solution:
we can use the geometric probability formula, which is given by:

𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 = 𝑘𝑘) = 𝑝𝑝 ⋅ (1 − 𝑝𝑝)𝑘𝑘−1

Where:

𝑘𝑘 is the number of trials needed for the first success, (orders),

𝑝𝑝 is s the probability of success on a single trial (probability of getting an order),
(1 − 𝑝𝑝) is the probability of failure on a single trial.

(a) What is the probability that the first order will come on the fourth sales call of the
day?
𝑘𝑘 = 4
𝑝𝑝 = 0.48
(1 − 𝑝𝑝)= (1 − 0.48) = 0.52

𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 = 4) =⋅ 0.48 ⋅ 0.524−1=3

= 0.48 ⋅ 0.523
= 0.48 ⋅ 0.140608
= 0.0675648

(b) If eight sales calls are made in a day, what is the probability of receiving exactly six
orders?

We can use the binomial probability formula, which is given by:

 n
𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 = 𝑘𝑘) = � � ⋅ 𝑝𝑝𝑘𝑘 ⋅ (1 − 𝑝𝑝)𝑛𝑛−𝑘𝑘
k
Where:
𝑛𝑛 is the number of trials (sales calls)=8
𝑘𝑘 is the number of trials needed for the first success, (orders)=6
𝑝𝑝 is s the probability of success on a single trial (probability of getting an order)=0.48
(1 − 𝑝𝑝) is the probability of failure on a single trial=0.52

8
𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 = 6) = � � ⋅ 𝑝𝑝𝑘𝑘 ⋅ (1 − 𝑝𝑝)𝑛𝑛−𝑘𝑘
6
= 28 ⋅ 0.486 ⋅ 0.522

= 28 × 0.01235 × 0.2704

=0.093178

(c) If four sales calls are made before lunch, what is the probability that one or fewer
results in an order?

𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 ≤ 1) = 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 = 0) + 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 = 1)

4 4
𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 ≤ 1) = � � ⋅ 0.480 ⋅ 0.524 + � � ⋅ 0.481 ⋅ 0.523
0 1

𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 ≤ 1) = 1 ⋅ 1 ⋅ 0.07465 + 4 ⋅ 0.067565

= 0.07465 + 0.27026

≈ 0.34491